CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => SEC => Topic started by: Gigem on December 16, 2025, 04:01:38 PM
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So, A&M playing Miami in it's first CFP game. I think we're very evenly matched, and I like our odds with the game being at home.
I'm excited about this game not just because of our potential playoff run, but how well we have done (overall) under Elko. Last year it seemed like we were turning a corner, and then we laid an egg in November, but we still finished with 8 wins, and came tantalizingly close to 9/10 wins. OT loss vs Auburn, and then a late collapse against USC in the bowl game. One of the things I've harped on on this board and others is how A&M has not had two *successful seasons in a row since the early 90's.
Successful means either conference champions, or 10+ wins. You may be able to call 97/97 successful, because in 97 we reached the Big 12 CCG, but we got bodied by Nebraksa when they were peak NU, and then lost the bowl game to an also very good UCLA and Cade McNown. 1998 we obviously won the Big 12, but in 1999 we took a step back, and then it was pretty much the Mack and Stoops show for a decade plus.
So all that being said, 8-5 last year, 11-1 this year with the chance to win 12 or more is a wonderful year in my book. I'm not sure who all is returning in '26, and frankly with the NIL and portal and all the noise I don't think anybody knows, even the players yet. But I like the direction we're trending, and if Elko can maintain momentum in '26 and beyond it will be the first time in 3 decades we've had real sustained success.
I have to temper myself because the schedule is very tough , and success may not be measured in W/L. Also, we will have new OC/DC among other staff changes. But Alabama and Georgia have the same issues year over year.
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Yup, TAMU and Miami are pretty evenly matched.
Just comparing it to the Aggie-Texas game, I think Miami is a little better along both lines, which is going to be a matchup problem for the Ags. And Miami's rushing defense is better than Texas' and I expect that to be a challenge as well.
But TAMU plays very well at times, and the game's at home. I think that gives A&M a slight edge. I think the Ags should win a close one but wouldn't be surprised if it goes the other way.
As for next season, the Ags' schedule is going to be tougher. I think 8-4/9-3 is a reasonable expectation. With the 2025 Aggie schedule as it was, I don't think it's realistic to extrapolate into 2026 from there.
And although it's true that Alabama and Georgia have the same issues of reloading year after year and always seem to manage them, I don't think A&M is on that level yet. I'm not being overly critical, because despite back-to-back trips to the playoffs' Final 4, Texas is clearly not on that level either. This season was a clear step backward for the Longhorns, and given the increased difficulty of the schedule, I expect something similar for A&M next year. I could certainly be surprised, though.
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Well, to be clear, NOBODY is on the same level as Georgia and Alabama over the last ~10-15 years. So I don't expect us to be there either, but I think we (or any program really) can approach that level of consistency year over year.
What I'm really saying is that we all deal with the same issues. Talent leaving, coaches leaving, tough schedules, injuries, constant distractions. The good programs adapt and overcome, the others swing up and down with the tides. Which is why I said I had to temper my expectations for '26 not in terms of W/L but more on how we stack up and match up. Anytime you play LSU, Florida, Texas, Mizzouri, USCe, Arkansas and win all but 1 I'd call that a successful year. Next year we get to play @LSU for the 2nd year in a row, and @ Bama. and to finish the season we get @OU and Texas. I made a back of the napkin guess a few days ago, I think we can be on par with some of these teams, and would take help to win a couple.
Nobody knows yet how OU will shake out next year, or if Bama is really sustaining under KDB, or if UTenn will be able to bounce back from a disappointing '25. 8 wins is pretty much our default as it's often joked about, so if we can just squeak by 1-2 more games we're knocking on the CFP and 10 wins again, and that would be a true measure of success to me. I'm not yet ready to declare Elko some kind of football god but I'm pleased with what he's done so far.
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It's hard to get a handle on how good Miami actually is because as weak as A&M's schedule was (supposedly) I think Miami's is weaker. We both played and Beat ND, they lost to Louisville and SMU. They trounced Pitt, outside of that I'm not really sure who they played that I would consider a quality opponent. USF doesn't count. Same thing with Notre Dame.
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it is going to be increasingly difficult to replicate elite results yr to yr due to the portal. who has depth? it's a relative question but the answer is no one has what they used to. optimistically it could make the playoff increasingly entertaining once they fix this james madison nonsense.
how much better would ole miss/notre dame & oregon/texas be than what we're getting this week? those would be great games. instead we have two turds.
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it is going to be increasingly difficult to replicate elite results yr to yr due to the portal. who has depth? it's a relative question but the answer is no one has what they used to. optimistically it could make the playoff increasingly entertaining once they fix this james madison nonsense.
how much better would ole miss/notre dame & oregon/texas be than what we're getting this week? those would be great games. instead we have two turds.
One thing I need to clarify is that I'm not looking for "elite results" year over year. I mean, yeah, I'd like to go 16-0 or whatever the number is these days to win a CFP/NC, but what I'm saying is that we can be a consistent 9/10/11/12 game winner year over year. You know what has kept A&M from being much more consistent in the W column? Losing games to Miss State or Ole Miss before Kiffin got there Not losing to Alabama or LSU when they were winning the MNC. Losing to the 2nd tier teams that we're clearly above in terms of program level. When you don't do that, you've got a consistent 7/8 win team, and that's the kind of consistency nobody wants.
With the portal I think you're simply going to see a few teams not at the top replace some of the ones who are consistently at the top. Not sure yet how that will shake out, but hello Indiana, and Texas Tech. And Maybe A&M. The big question is will you see Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State fall out of that top spot?
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i u/s you - i'm just talking about the landscape moreover as opposed to pushing back necessarily on your expectations/hopes.
i think it will be interesting to see if any of these schools develop nil fatigue at some point.
as for this game texas clearly (to me) gelled the last half of the season offensively. they worked vandy & the georgia game was misleading if you didn't watch it. that turned on a wonderfully timed onside kick. uga deserves credit but in no way are they winning 35-10 in a rematch. i say all that to say by the time they got to atm they were playing at an elite level imo & had them at home. thinking about that result & miami losing to turds like louisville & smu i just have a hard time believing they're going to go on the road & win at atm. feels like a 30-27 type game to me.
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i u/s you - i'm just talking about the landscape moreover as opposed to pushing back necessarily on your expectations/hopes.
i think it will be interesting to see if any of these schools develop nil fatigue at some point.
as for this game texas clearly (to me) gelled the last half of the season offensively. they worked vandy & the georgia game was misleading if you didn't watch it. that turned on a wonderfully timed onside kick. uga deserves credit but in no way are they winning 35-10 in a rematch. i say all that to say by the time they got to atm they were playing at an elite level imo & had them at home. thinking about that result & miami losing to turds like louisville & smu i just have a hard time believing they're going to go on the road & win at atm. feels like a 30-27 type game to me.
I felt at the time of the Texas game, and I still feel that way now, that A&M and Texas were very evenly matched. It was a 10 point game that could have went either way. I felt like the home crowd energized the team after the half, and they were able to open up their run game. It’s hard to say what a rematch between UGa and Texas would have been, but they beat them 2x last year, once in OT.
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. . . thinking about that result & miami losing to turds like louisville & smu i just have a hard time believing they're going to go on the road & win at atm. feels like a 30-27 type game to me.
30-27 is an either-team-could-have-won-it score. So, how hard could it be to predict that Miami would be the team that scores the 30 points?
I'm not tooting Miami's horn, BTW. I root against the Canes at every opportunity.
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I mean, I'll agree that Texas and Texas A&M were fairly evenly matched for their game, this season. I do believe the Ags probably would have won in College Station.
But I won't agree that the programs are currently on the same level. Texas made the playoffs the past two years, and in 2025 Texas played 5 Top 15 teams and beat 3 of them even during a down season. Sure the loss to Florida was bad and can't be ignored, but neither can the wins over Top 10 teams.
I expect Texas to be significantly improved next year, against a schedule that's probably a little easier than last year's if only because Georgia isn't on it.
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I mean, I'll agree that Texas and Texas A&M were fairly evenly matched for their game, this season. I do believe the Ags probably would have won in College Station.
But I won't agree that the programs are currently on the same level. Texas made the playoffs the past two years, and in 2025 Texas played 5 Top 15 teams and beat 3 of them even during a down season. Sure the loss to Florida was bad and can't be ignored, but neither can the wins over Top 10 teams.
I expect Texas to be significantly improved next year, against a schedule that's probably a little easier than last year's if only because Georgia isn't on it.
Who said they were on the same level ? Clearly, they are not, at least not yet.
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Well okay then.
I thought we were gonna argue about something. I guess we're not gonna argue about something.
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Irregardlessly, I'll be pulling for the Ags on Saturday, albeit quietly and alone on the back patio, whilst my i s c & a aggie wife hosts several of her Aggie family and friends at our house.
My bourbon stores are stocked, we've also got plenty of egg nog, so I should be able to manage okay.
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Well okay then.
I thought we were gonna argue about something. I guess we're not gonna argue about something.
I would almost say that A&M has the same "potential" to be on the same level as Texas.
To me, this has always been the extremely frustrating part of being an Aggie Fan. You can compare almost any metric there is....facilities, money, fan support, location. No offense to Brad, but you probably accept at some point that a school like Purdue just simply isn't on the same level as say Ohio State or Michigan. Not in terms of fan support, stadium size, location, budget, etc. The best you can hope for is a 7ish win season, not many 3-5 win seasons, and maybe every 7-8 years a 9 win season, and once or twice a decade upset Ohio State or Michigan. We've bee over this scenario many times, as Brad often states, all of the reasons that made 'tweener' programs like Purdue fun have all but evaporated.
But A&M, is arguably a top 10 program in any conceivable metric. Stadium size, fan support, money, facilities, location, recruiting. Some of those metrics we're in the top 5, and some we're in the top 2. Depends on how you calculate.
Results wise? We're no better, or possibly worse, than say...Ole Miss...or even Purdue.
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That’s one take on it.
https://twitter.com/dhsportsrelated/status/2002479668503417338?s=61
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Bull malarkey.
11-2 is a great season, even if the schedule was weak and there were no wins over top ten teams, or whatever. 11-2 firmly separates you from the mediocres who have no hope of going 11-2, regardless of whatever it means about how close you are or aren't to Georgia or Ohio State or whatever.
If people can't find some joy in 11-2 seasons, their fandom is doomed.
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I think losing the last two is a damper. Many UGA fans view last season as a near disaster after winning the SEC.
Meanwhile, ND is 10-2, but they won 10 straight after two losses, which somehow would feel better I think, then they get left out and took their toys and went home, much to the chagrin of nearly no one.
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That’s one take on it.
https://twitter.com/dhsportsrelated/status/2002479668503417338?s=61
That was a Bo Schembechler season like every other year for him.
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I was thinking about Tech fans, 8-0 start, 1-4 finish.
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Damn. Turns out Miami was pretty good.
https://twitter.com/willcurrys/status/2009629622749602024?s=46&t=EHozF964Pc_xZmTZKPCcEA
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High rises on North Gate. This is next to the Dixie Chicken.
https://twitter.com/KBTXRusty/status/2009710515493449929?s=20