CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on December 09, 2025, 10:32:41 AM
-
Teams with 1st Loss Week 15:
Ohio State
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 15:
North Texas
Brigham Young
Teams with 3rd Loss Week 15:
UNLV
Alabama
Virginia
Teams with 1st Win Week 14:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)
Week 6: 25% (5 of 20)
Week 7: 26.7% (4 of 15)
Week 8: 45.5% (5 of 11)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Week 10: 33.3% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 25.0% (1 of 4)
Week 12: 0% (0 of 3)
Week 13: 0% (0 of 3)
Week 14: 33.3% (1 of 3)
Week 15: 50% (1 of 2)
Number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
1: Indiana beat Ohio State is finishes the regular season as our only undefeated team.
Maximum Number of Undefeated or 1-loss Teams at end of Bowl Season:
2: All undefeated and 1-loss teams are in the playoff. If Indiana doesn't win it all, we have two left with left with a single loss. If Indiana does win it all, they will be undefeated and everyone else will have at least two losses.
Week 15 Thoughts:
-Let's go back a few years and pretend we are told these results for the 2nd year of the 12 team CFP: Indiana would be the #1 seed as undefeated Big Ten champs, the ACC champion wouldn't make the playoff over a Sun Belt champ, and things at least short term look bad between the ACC and Notre Dame. I would have thought that would have been a pretty improbable outcome.
-Let's shout out for the Sun Belt getting their first team in the BCS/NY6/CFP. With this appearance, every Group of 5 conference has now made it at least once.
-I like to test rules of thumb so let's go back to my original metrics. Before last season, I guessed that as a rule of thumb, 1 loss teams from the Big 12/ACC would make it and 2 loss teams from the Big Ten/SEC would make it. The Big Ten, in two years, has yet to have a 2 loss team so we have zero data on that. The SEC got most of its two loss teams in this year with only Vandy left out (I think they would have been a lot more likely if not so many others from the conference). The ACC didn't have any single loss teams, but did actually get a two loss team in. The Big 12 had BYU left out. They did have two losses, but one was in the championship and even if they hadn't played in that game for some reason, they would have been left out. All in all, my guess on that wasn't perfect, but I think still holds as a general rule of thumb to start with before looking at specifics. We'll see how it all stacks up after a few more years if we stick to 12.
-My other guess for this year specifically was that 0 and 1 loss teams would mostly gets byes and host, but we would also have to use two loss teams to host. That held up strongly with only 2 loss Oklahoma hosting with more than 1 loss.
-The ACC avoided missing the playoff entirely, which was a huge deal. Still, it was rough being in the spot the champion didn't make it. I predict they change tiebreakers so that it goes to rankings as a tiebreaker if head to head doesn't solve.
-Indiana is going to the Rose Bowl as undefeated Big Ten champs. I am repeating myself too many times, but with superconferences, I never thought I would see the day.
-Notre Dame is going to skip a bowl entirely so their season is over. I would have personally put them in and taken Alabama out, but I get arguments for anyway you wanted to put in the last two in and first two out (although I don't like what felt like an inconsistency in what to do in a bad championship loss given the committee obviously had Notre Dame and Alabama very close). My one positive takeaway from this is that 2 early season losses can still matter. Notre Dame was good enough to win it all and would have been favored over several schools in it. Games in September still mattered just enough to keep them out though. Others might hate this, but while I still would voted them in the top 10, I am glad to see early season games at least having some stakes still.
-BYU this year reminded me of 2007 Missouri. That Mizzou would have been in the national championship bowl game if they hadn't had to play Oklahoma twice.
-SEC got 5 in. That's the new high bar to watch.
Week 16 and Bowl Thoughts:
Army at 2-loss Navy: Navy might be getting the upper hand again. They are six point favorites here.
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan: Conference champ vs. conference champ here. Good game for pride for both conferences.
2-loss Alabama at 2-loss Oklahoma/Rose Bowl: Oklahoma had a surprise win in this game earlier which did a lot to put them in the playoff. They are slight favorites to repeat. Alabama wants to get that taste out of their mouth and show putting them was correct. The winner will face Indiana in the Rose Bowl. Indiana is in 7th heaven to be where they are. They have managed to keep surpassing increasing higher expectations and can't let up now if they want it all.
2-loss Miami at 1-loss Texas A&M/Cotton Bowl: The ACC has its representative. Now, they would really like it to at least make some noise for conference pride. This is huge deal for the Aggies though too who really don't want to end what was a perfect season with back to back losses. Texas A&M is a 4 point favorite. The winner faces Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Ohio State went into the playoff last year with a loss. Maybe that is for the best for national championship chances.
2-loss Tulane at 1-loss Ole Miss/Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss won this game earlier in the year. Tulane knew they would be in this game with a win and they play an Ole Miss team without Kiffin and other staff this time. If things don't transition smoothly, this could be a game. Ole Miss is a huge favorite though. The winner of this game will play Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. If it's Ole Miss, that will be a another rematch.
1-loss James Madison at 1-loss Oregon/Orange Bowl: James Madison needed everything to fall right to get here and they got it. Oregon finished strong with wins over USC and Washington and only have lost to Indiana. Win this game and they play Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. Texas Tech looked like far and away the strongest in the Big 12. Like last year, the conference has a bye to the 2nd round bowls. Unlike last year, they got it by being in the top 4 in the rankings.
Potato Bowl: Washington State vs. Utah State: A conference game next year.
Hawaii Bowl: Cal vs. Hawaii: A Christmas Eve tradition.
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas vs. San Diego State: A preview of American vs. new PAC-12. These games slowly add up in conference perception.
Pot Tart Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. BYU: Ranked vs. ranked. Is BYU in this after missing the playoff? Georgia Tech finished a bit disappointingly too, although still had heart against Georgia.
Alamo Bowl: USC vs. TCU: Best bowl in the PAC-12 alignment (after the Rose) for one last year even if the conference has been gone.
Outback Bowl: Iowa vs 2-loss Vanderbilt: SEC vs Big Ten. Iowa looked much better than their 4 losses show. Vanderbilt had an amazing year, but a bit disappointed being left out of playoff.
Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs. Duke: ACC Champ playing in this game feels weird.
Citrus Bowl: What has often been the best non-NY6 Bowl has Texas vs. Michigan for a lot of star power. Texas is a small favorite.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big Ten: 1, total: 1
Indiana
1-Loss Teams: American: 0, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 1, total:
Georgia
James Madison
Oregon
Mississippi
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Ohio State
2-loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 3, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 0, Mountain West: 0, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 0, independents: 1, total: 18
Miami (FL)
Navy
Tulane
Utah
Oklahoma
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
North Texas
Brigham Young
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC:1, total: 1
Massachusetts