CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: ManHawk on November 23, 2025, 06:58:24 AM
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What does everybody think? My rankings are in a post below.
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1. Ohio St
2. Indiana
3. Oregon
4. USC
5. Michigan
6. Washington
7. Iowa
8. Penn St
9. Northwestern
10. Minnesota
11.. Illinois
12. Nebraska
13. Wisconsin
14. UCLA
15. Rutgers
16 Mich St
17. Maryland
18 Purdue
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1. Ohio St
2. Indiana
3. Oregon
4. USC
5. Michigan
6. Washington
7. Iowa
8. Penn St
9. Northwestern
10. Minnesota
11.. Illinois
12. Nebraska
13. Wisconsin
14. UCLA
15. Rutgers
16 Mich St
17. Maryland
18 Purdue
Looks good
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close enough
been a crazy season so far
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Now is the time of year when one wonders how much credit to give a team for one outlying win, and how much to punish a team for one inexplicable loss?
Contenders:
1) Ohio State--just keep doing what they do. Network has to love the matchup this week.
2) Indiana--Purdue is unlikely to derail them.
3) Oregon--the win they needed.
Top 25-ish: these teams feel pretty interchangeable:
4) USC--not docking much for losing to a better team on the road. Quality wins against Michigan, Iowa, and Northwestern
5) Michigan--did what they were supposed to do against Maryland. Quality wins against Northwestern and Washington?
6) Iowa--shouldn't have needed that comeback to beat MSU. But looking at the games they've played, I'm still tempted to put them higher than Michigan and USC. Beat Penn State, smoked Wisconsin and Minnesota, and was oh so close against both Indiana and Oregon.
Not Ready for Prime Time:
7) Penn State--yikes; that's the team people saw coming in August. Still trying to figure out the loss to UCLA. Maybe Northwestern is decent? Had a chance to beat Oregon, Indiana, and Iowa.
8) Washington--dispatched with a UCLA team returning to the mean. But how much credit do they get for beating Illinois?
9) Northwestern--surprised they couldn't slow down Minnesota's offense, but a win's a win. Beat Penn State, took Michigan to the bell, but lost to Tulane and Nebraska.
Really Not Very Good:
10) Illinois--that was embarrassing. But how low can I drop them for one bad game? Conversely, how much credit do they get for beating USC?
11) Minnesota--let that one get away. Have had the benefit of a soft schedule; their best win was their beat down over...
12) Nebraska--on the basis of the H2H with Minnesota. Best games were losses to Michigan and USC.
13) Wisconsin--weirdly, better two wins than any of the teams outside of the top five (Washington and Illinois), but that loss to Maryland is inexcusable, Iowa wrecked them, and Michigan was never worried in Ann Arbor. The defense is competent, the offense is terrible.
14) UCLA--how much credit for that home win over Penn State? Because otherwise they suck.
15) Rutgers--didn't look terrible in the first half against OSU. Best game was competitive-ish against Iowa? But beat:
16) Maryland--that big win in Madison was a long time ago.
Pur-Don't:
17) Michigan State--showed life, but couldn't close the deal. If their results against Minnesota and Iowa are a guide, have a legit shot at getting a win this week, leaving Purdue alone in this category (or welcoming Maryland back where it belongs?).
18) Purdue--enjoy the extra week to prepare for Indiana! If only for one good bounce against either Minnesota or Rutgers...
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(https://i.imgur.com/KBUdLKf.png)
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For a power ranking, I still struggle to think Indiana could take out Oregon, but maybe I have a case of helmetitis.
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For a power ranking, I still struggle to think Indiana could take out Oregon, but maybe I have a case of helmetitis.
I mean they already did...in Eugene
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I think the Hoosiers are better than last season
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I mean they already did...in Eugene
So they did.....I missed that game.
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I think the Hoosiers are better than last season
I think the Hoosiers were under-rated last year. Their only 2 losses were to Ohio St and to Notre Dame in the playoffs.
I guess if this years team can beat Ohio St, then I will declare them better than last year.
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or Notre Dame or the #7 seed or higher?
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Oregon
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. USC
7. Washington
8. Northwestern
9. Illinois
10. Penn State
11. Nebraska
12. Wisconsin
13. Minnesota
14. Rutgers
15. UCLA
16. Michigan State
17. Purdue
18. Maryland
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Oregon
4. Michigan
5. USC
6. Washington
7. Illinois
8. Penn State
9. Iowa
10. Northwestern
11. Nebraska
12. Wisconsin
13. Minnesota
14. Rutgers
15. UCLA
16. Michigan State
17. Purdue
18. Maryland
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1)Hoosiers idle but here until tOSU can thrash the weasels
2)Bucks - It's been a long time since we saw Ohio State break a sweat, but now comes the mental block party of the schedule All that’s left on the schedule is taking down 9-2 Michigan in the Big House, something they haven’t done in four seasons.
3)Ducks - They took care of business against the Trojans and notched their best victory of the season. Linebacker Bryce Boettcher was the star, amassing 13 total tackles and running in a one-yard touchdown on senior day. A win over Washington next week and Oregon will be 11-1 and have a spot in the CFP. It's now simple heading into the game against Washington; win and you're in. Lose and sweat out Selection Sunday.
4)M* - It’s essentially a plug-and-play for the Wolverines running backs, as they lost starter Justice Haynes to a season-ending injury and backup Jordan Marshall missed this game due to injury as well. Yet junior third-stringer Bryson Kuzdzal carried the ball 20 times for 100 yards and three touchdowns.tOSU should have a line like that. M* didn’t commit a single turnover after committing five last week. They still have a glimmer of hope to make the College Football Playoff if they can knock off Ohio State.
5)USC - USC's struggles to beat ranked teams on the road continued against Oregon. The Trojans playoff hopes are wiped away and they will look to finish off their regular season with nine wins, the most since coach Lincoln Riley's first season there in 2022. The Trojans' offensive firepower was on display in Eugene, as quarterback Jayden Maiava passed for 306 yards.But the deficit in the trenches was just too much to overcome
6)Huskies - They rolled the Bruins by 34 points thanks to four total touchdowns from quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and forcing three UCLA turnovers. Washington, after a dispiriting loss to Wisconsin three weeks ago, have followed that up with a pair of blowout victories as they head into their season finale with Oregon @ Home. Though they won’t make the CFP, they have a chance to play spoiler against their hated rival.
7)Iowa - The Hawkeyes eeked out a win over the Spartans, scoring 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to avoid a devastating loss at home. The defense simply didn’t have enough answers for the opposing passing attack, resulting in Iowa taking a deficit into the final quarter. They are a level below the top couple teams in the Big Ten, but have proven they can hang with anyone else in the conference and deserve a top ranking into their final regular season game. I'd like to see them and the Huskies play on a nuetral field
8)Illinios - A disappointing season for Illinois got even more disappointing with a loss to Wisconsin. Hate to rank them here but the rest have been just as woeful and they have 7 wins. Illini had just gotten ranked for the first time in nearly a month and wasted the opportunity, getting completely outworked in the trenches. This just doesn’t look like a motivated team and, despite the high level of talent on the roster, is well deserving of their lackluster 4-4 record in the Big Ten.
9) Wildcats - see above they won but after 3 straight losses. The Wildcats got back in the win column, narrowly beating the Golden Gophers
10)Miinesota
11)PennState
12)'Skers
13)Bruins
14)RU
15)Badgers
16)Terps
17)MSU
18)Boilers
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Last week in parenthesis
- OHIO STATE (1) - and yet they have to win this week
- INDIANA (2) - bye week
- OREGON (3) - likely locked up a CFP spot
- USC (4) - paying Riley too much to lose every big game
- MICHIGAN (6) - not just playing spoiler this year, CFP spot on the line
- WASHINGTON (7) - finally put together a strong road performance
- IOWA (8) - most Iowa win ever
- ILLINOIS (5) - no way to call this season anything other than a disappointment
- PENN STATE (11) - playing like they do care about a bowl bid
- NEBRASKA (9) - just no offense without Raiola
- NORTHWESTERN (10) - hell of a season to get to a bowl
- MINNESOTA (12) - had a perfect schedule for a CFP run, and instead are limping into a bowl
- WISCONSIN (16) - playing much better since the vote of confidence in Fickell
- RUTGERS (13) - bowl game still possible
- UCLA (14) - still trying to figure out what was going on for those 3 weeks in October
- MARYLAND (15) - cannot fathom just how dead Maryland-MSU on a neutral field this week will be
- MICHIGAN STATE (17) - see above
- PURDUE (18) - bye week
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SOR/SP+ bracket
#12 James Madison at #5 OREGON; winner vs. #4 Georgia
#11 North Texas at #6 Ole Miss; winner vs. #3 Texas A&M
#10 Alabama at #7 Texas Tech; winner vs. #2 OHIO STATE
#9 Oklahoma at #8 BYU; winner vs. #1 INDIANA
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Medina's completely objective Power Rankings.
First a review of the rules:
- Each team's opponents are ranked 1-8 based on performance against that team. Ie, the teams aren't being evaluated against the team that they played, they are being evaluated against the other teams that played that team.
- OT games are considered closer than games decided in regulation. Ie, winning by 1 in regulation is 'better' than winning by 8 in OT.
- Ties are broken based on HFA. Ie, winning by 7 on the road is 'better' than winning by 7 at home.
- Each team's relative performance rating is then averaged.
For example, Ohio State has beaten all eight teams that they have played but those eight are ranked:
- (tie so credited as 1.5) Washington lost by 18 at home
- (tie so credited as 1.5) Illinois lost by 18 at home
- Penn State lost by 24 on the road
- Purdue lost by 24 at home
- Rutgers lost by 33
- Wisconsin lost by 34
- UCLA lost by 38
- Minnesota lost by 39
Similarly, Purdue has lost to all eight teams that they have played but those eight are ranked:
- Washington won by 36
- Ohio State won by 24
- Northwestern won by 19
- (tie so credited as 4.5) USC won by 16 on the road
- (tie so credited as 4.5) Illinois won by 16 on the road
- Minnesota won by 7
- Michigan won by 5
- Rutgers won by 3
Put this all together and here is what you get:
- (tie) 1.50 Ohio State
- (tie) 1.50 Indiana
- 3.063 Oregon
- 3.188 USC
- 3.25 Penn State
- 3.625 Iowa
- 4.000 Washington
- 4.375 Illinois
- 4.563 Michigan
- 4.75 Northwestern
- 5.125 Nebraska
- 5.188 Wisconsin
- 5.563 UCLA
- (tie) 6.000 Maryland
- (tie) 6.000 Michigan State
- 6.25 Purdue
- 6.375 Rutgers
- 6.438 Minnesota
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Schedule/Performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/kGvp3Jq.png)
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Now is the time of year when one wonders how much credit to give a team for one outlying win, and how much to punish a team for one inexplicable loss?
This is one of the reasons I do my comparative performance evaluation. Outliers REALLY jump out. Here are two examples:
Minnesota:
- Minnesota has the worst results in the league against Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan State
- Minnesota has the second-worst result against Oregon
- Minnesota has the third-worst results against Purdue and Rutgers
- Minnesota is tied for the third-worst result against Northwestern
- Minnesota has the second best result against Nebraska.
That Nebraska result is just a plain fluke. The other seven results indicate that Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the league and that ONE outlier indicates that they are one of the best teams in the league. Random stuff happens.
UCLA:
- UCLA has the second-worst results in the league against Ohio State, Indiana, Washington, Nebraska, and Maryland
- UCLA tied for the third-worst result in the league against Northwestern
- UCLA has the second-best result in the league against Penn State
- UCLA has the best result in the league against Michigan State.
The PSU and MSU results are flukes. All the others indicate that the Bruins are one of the worst teams in the league but those two indicate that they are one of the best. Random stuff happens.