CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 22, 2025, 09:17:27 PM
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Ohio State's win eliminated the possibility of a 2-loss team making it because the Hoosiers and Buckeyes can do no worse than 8-1. Thus, only four teams remain in the race mathematically:
- 8-0/11-0 Ohio State, at Michigan
- 8-0/11-0 Indiana, at Purdue
- 7-1/10-1 Oregon, at Washington
- 7-1/9-2 Michigan, vs Ohio Stata
Obviously Indiana and Ohio State control their own destiny. Either or both of them head to Indy with a win.
I think that Indiana loses any potential tie except a two-way tie with Oregon so if the Hoosiers lose they can only get to the B1GCG if Ohio State wins.
Oregon needs a win and a Michigan win.
Michigan needs a win and a Washington win.
If Ohio State loses I *think* they only make it with losses by BOTH Indiana and Oregon. That creates a three-way tie between IU, M, and tOSU and I *THINK* that results in a tOSU/M rematch.
I think that covers it.
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Thinking about a way to simplify this and (correct me if I'm wrong) I think that if Ohio State wins none of the other games matter and the CG us tOSU (home jerseys as #1) vs Indiana (road as #2).
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If 8-0 Indiana loses to 0-8 Purdue, would that be considered the biggest upset of the 21st century?
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(https://i.imgur.com/hxxNrBt.png)
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If 8-0 Indiana loses to 0-8 Purdue, would that be considered the biggest upset of the 21st century?
I'm not sure that it would top:
https://youtu.be/QoT2gi430Ec?si=ZVOyuOw7W73haVv4
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just couldn't wait for Brutus?
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(https://i.imgur.com/hxxNrBt.png)
What are the seven scenarios?
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Seems like it would have to be an even number of scenarios, as each game has exactly two possible outcomes.
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Seems like it would have to be an even number of scenarios, as each game has exactly two possible outcomes.
Yeah, I don't know how they get seven.
I get eight:
Two possible outcomes of IU/PU times two possible outcomes of ORE/UDub times two possible outcomes of The Game =8.
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Yeah, I don't know how they get seven.
it's FaceBook
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Maybe because if OSU and Indiana win, it doesn't matter what happens in the Oregon-UDub game? I dunno.
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Maybe because if OSU and Indiana win, it doesn't matter what happens in the Oregon-UDub game? I dunno.
I think that you are right. If Ohio State and Indiana both win then they both finish 9-0 and the issue of whether Oregon finishes 8-1 or 7-2 is irrelevant to the B1GCG discussion.
The SoS metric determines some of these ties so here are the opponent win % figures for the four relevant teams:
- .528 Oregon's B1G opponents are 38-34
- .417 Michigan's B1G opponents are 30-42
- .403 Ohio State's B1G opponents are 29-43
- .333 Indiana's B1G opponents are 24-48
Oregon absolutely will finish #1 among these teams in this metric because you can't make up 8 games on the final weekend. Indiana's will finish last because they can't realistically (and probably can't mathematically) make up 4-5 games to catch tOSU's or Michigan's. That leaves the Buckeyes and Wolverines and that one is in play because Ohio State's opponents could make up one game.
Here is what I get:
(https://i.imgur.com/tW9twmm.png)
Here is the link to the B1G site which lays all of this out. (https://bigten.org/fb/article/58967/) @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) was right, they combined what I have as scenarios #1 and #2 because the result of the Oregon/Washington game is irrelevant to this discussion of Ohio State and Indiana both win.
Tiebreakers:
Scenario #1:
Ohio State gets home jerseys based on better opponent record.
Scenario #2:
Same as #1.
Scenario #3:
Indiana gets the top spot at 9-0 leaving Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon all tied at 8-1 for the second spot. Common opponents doesn't help because none of them lost to a common opponent. Falls to record of conference opponents where Oregon wins.
Scenario #4:
This one is pretty simple. Michigan wins the tiebreaker over tOSU based on H2H.
Scenario #5:
This one is pretty simple. Indiana wins the tiebreaker over Oregon based on H2H.
Scenario #6:
There are no ties to break. Ohio State is #1 because they are the only 9-0 team and Indiana is #2 because they are the only 8-1 team.
Scenario #7:
This one is the biggest mess. It is a 4-way tie at 8-1 between the Ducks, Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Hoosiers. H2H doesn't help because they didn't all play. The only common opponent is Wisconsin and all four beat Wisconsin. Thus it falls to record of B1G opponents where Oregon wins. Here is where it gets tricky. Second in record of opponents could be either Michigan OR Ohio State but it doesn't matter because instead, Oregon is removed and the other three proceed to the three-way tiebreaker. There is no H2H but Indiana is eliminated based on common opponents because they would be 1-1 against Purdue and Wisconsin while the Buckeyes and Wolverines would be 2-0. Then Ohio State and Michigan would proceed to the two-team tiebreaker where Michigan wins based on H2H.
Scenario #8 where ALL of the favorites lose creates a three-way tie between the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Hoosiers. In that case H2H doesn't help but common opponents removes Indiana because they would be 1-1 vs PU and UW while the Buckeyes and Wolverines would both be 2-0. Then Michigan would get the home jerseys based on their H2H win.
So for the four teams:
Ohio State:
- If the Buckeyes win they are in and they are playing Indiana.
- If the Buckeyes lose they can only get in if Indiana and Oregon also lose in which case they get a rematch with Michigan.
Indiana:
- If the Hoosiers win they are in and playing either Ohio State (if the Buckeyes also win) or Oregon (if tOSU loses and Ore wins) or Michigan (if tOSU and Oregon both lose).
- If the Hoosiers lose they can only get in by Ohio State winning and in that case they are in and play Ohio State.
Oregon:
- If Oregon wins they still only go if Michigan beats Ohio State. In that case they play IU if IU wins or Michigan if IU loses.
- If Oregon loses they are out.
Michigan:
- If Michigan wins they still only go if at least one of IU/Ore loses. If Oregon loses they play IU. If IU loses, they play Oregon. If both lose, they play tOSU.
- If Michigan loses they are out.
Of the eight scenarios:
- 6 - IU goes to the B1GCG in six and can play any of the others.
- 5 - tOSU goes to the B1GCG in five and can play IU or M but not Ore.
- 3 - Michigan goes to the B1GCG in three and can play any of the others.
- 2 - Oregon goes to the B1GCG in two and can play either IU or M.
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I know this does not make sense, because the schedules would be different, but what if the Big Ten was split into 3 divisions?
Old Big Ten East
Ohio St 8-0
Indiana 8-0
Michigan 7-1
Penn St 2-6
Rutgers 2-6
Maryland 1-7
Mich St 0-8
Overall 28-28
Who would win the tiebreaker for first?
Old Big Ten West
Iowa 5-3
Minn 4-4
Neb 4-4
NW 4-4
ILL 4-4
Wisc 2-6
Pur 0-8
Overall 23-33
Who would win the West if Neb beats Iowa?
Pac division
Oregon 7-1
USC 6-2
Wash 5-3
UCLA 3-5
Overall 21-11
Oregon has won the West even if it loses its last game
Interesting that Old patterns continue. The East is very top heavy with great teams at the top balanced out with bad teams on the bottom, all balancing out to a .500 Overall record.
The West has no great teams with a lot of teams in middle, and a couple of bad teams on the bottom.
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weird how an upset in all three games results in an OSU-Michigan rematch.
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I'm not gonna cross my fingers
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weird how an upset in all three games results in an OSU-Michigan rematch.
I wonder if such a thing would lead to, um, "discussions", about future scheduling.
A lot of SEC teams play OOC rivals the last weekend which prevents this from occuring (some do play rivals in conference of course).
Probably not.
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folks often worry about these unlikely rematches
they are so unlikely that they rarely happen
it's so derned rare that nothing is ever done about it
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I wonder if such a thing would lead to, um, "discussions", about future scheduling.
A lot of SEC teams play OOC rivals the last weekend which prevents this from occuring (some do play rivals in conference of course).
Probably not.
As a general matter, I'm not a fan of rematches and I think that it is a LOT more palatable if the two games are separated by most of the season. Ie, Ohio State and Oregon playing a rematch last year wasn't too bad because the games were on October 12 and January 1. The nearly three months between the two games gave enough time for the two teams to evolve. If Ohio State and Michigan rematch this year or any year in the current format it is going to be two games seven days apart and to me, what is the point?
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I'm obviously not worried, just pondering. Rematches historically have been separated by weeks of a season, I don't know of any that were back to back, maybe Florida-FSU?
The history of The Game suggests to me it won't be changed no matter. In rematches, the most frequent outcome if winning both, something like 60% of the time, as I recall. And in this case, and many, it would be on a "neutral site".
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Folks like to fret about this rematch, but you rarely hear any concern about the possibility of an Alabama-Auburn rematch a week later.
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Folks like to fret about this rematch, but you rarely hear any concern about the possibility of an Alabama-Auburn rematch a week later.
If it was to happen there would be fretting I suspect. They were both in the same division back in the day, so it hasn't been a possibility until lately, which is true for the B1G as well.
I tend to prefer divisions even though it can mean a better team is left out.
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As a general matter, I'm not a fan of rematches and I think that it is a LOT more palatable if the two games are separated by most of the season. Ie, Ohio State and Oregon playing a rematch last year wasn't too bad because the games were on October 12 and January 1. The nearly three months between the two games gave enough time for the two teams to evolve. If Ohio State and Michigan rematch this year or any year in the current format it is going to be two games seven days apart and to me, what is the point?
to win the game - either or both
I'm not a fan of rematches but I don't mind them, especially if they are good teams
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folks often worry about these unlikely rematches
they are so unlikely that they rarely happen
it's so derned rare that nothing is ever done about it
This is a good point. If we had this format but back in the 1970s with a ten-team Big Ten and Ohio State and Michigan clearly being the 'big two' then it would happen almost every year. Seriously, from 1968-:
- 1968 rematch: tOSU was 7-0, M 6-1 next best was PU at 5-2
- 1969 rematch: tied at 6-1, next best was PU at 5-2
- 1970 depends on tiebreakers: tOSU was outright champ at 7-0. M and NU tied for second at 6-1 (both lost to tOSU). Michigan won all three of their OOC games while Northwestern lost all three of theirs.
- 1971 NO REMATCH: Michigan was outright champ at 8-0. NU was second at 6-3. Ohio State was in a three-way tie for third at 5-3.
- 1972 rematch: tOSU and M tied for the championship at 7-1. PU was next at 6-2.
- 1973 rematch: tOSU and M tied for the championship at 7-0-1. MN was next at 6-2.
- 1974 rematch: tOSU and M tied for the championship at 7-1. MSU was next at 6-1-1.
- 1975 rematch: tOSU was outright champ at 8-0, M was second at 7-1. Next best was a three-way tie between MSU, IL, and PU at 4-4.
- 1976 rematch: tOSU and M tied at 7-1, next best was a a four-way tie between MN, IL, IU, and PU at 4-4.
- 1977 rematch: tOSU and M tied at 7-1, next best was MSU at 6-1-1.
- 1978 NO REMATCH: M and MSU tied for the championship at 7-1. PU was next at 6-1-1 with tOSU 1/2 game behind the Boilermakers.
- 1979 NO REMATCH: tOSU was outright champ at 8-0, next best was PU at 7-1 with M a game behind the Boilermakers.
- 1980 depends on tiebreakers: M was outright champ at 8-0 with PU and tOSU tied for second at 7-1 (both lost to M). FWIW, PU lost 26-0 in Ann Arbor while tOSU lost 9-3 at home.
- 1981 NO REMATCH: Ohio State and Iowa tied for the championship at 6-2 with Michigan, Illinois, and Wisconsin 1/2 game back at 6-3.
- 1982 rematch: Michigan was outright champ at 8-1 with Ohio State 1/2 game back at 7-1 and Iowa next a game behind tOSU.
- 1983 NO REMATCH: Illinois was outright champ at 9-0 then M at 8-1 (lost to IL) then Iowa at 7-2 (lost to IL and M), then tOSU at 6-3 (lost to IL, M, and IA) then Wisconsin at 5-4 (lost to IL, M, IA, tOSU).
In the 10 years from 1968-1977 the current structure would have resulted in eight or nine rematches of The Game exactly one week later.
In today's 18-team mega-conference the chances of it actually happening are a lot smaller so it isn't as big of a concern.
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CFPwise, if there were a rematch, and Michigan won both, would they get a top four slotting?
All sorts of possibilities abound with some real mayhem for the Committee.
Imagine UGA, currently at 4 sitting pretty, gets into the SEC CG and loses.
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I'm obviously not worried, just pondering. Rematches historically have been separated by weeks of a season, I don't know of any that were back to back, maybe Florida-FSU?
The history of The Game suggests to me it won't be changed no matter. In rematches, the most frequent outcome if winning both, something like 60% of the time, as I recall. And in this case, and many, it would be on a "neutral site".
@OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) would be a better source than me but:
I know there were a couple UF/FSU bowl game rematches back in the 1990s including when UF won their first NC in 1996 and I *THINK* those were back-to-back for FSU but not UF because UF had the SECCG in between.
Also, even though they were back-to-back for FSU there was still over a month of time elapsed in between. That isn't quite the same situation as this would be with two teams playing each other seven days apart.
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CFPwise, if there were a rematch, and Michigan won both, would they get a top four slotting?
All sorts of possibilities abound with some real mayhem for the Committee.
Imagine UGA, currently at 4 sitting pretty, gets into the SEC CG and loses.
First, the chances of a rematch THIS year are pretty remote. It only happens if the underdogs win all three relevant games (IU/PU, tOSU/M, Ore/UDub).
So if Michigan won both here would be the B1G CFP contenders sorted by record:
- 11-1 Indiana (lost to PU)
- 11-2 Michigan (lost to OU and USC)
- 10-2 Ohio State (lost to M2x)
- 10-2 Oregon (lost to IU and UDub)
I think the best chance for a top-4 spot would be IU but I wonder how much the committee would drop them for losing to a terrible team.
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PU isn't playing terribly lately
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(https://i.imgur.com/aM9R9Kj.jpeg)
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(https://i.imgur.com/aM9R9Kj.jpeg)
What stands out to me is that other than USC/UCLA, none of these have the same team leading all three metrics.
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well, UCLA sucks
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True dat though they beat Penn St but then again who hasn't? ;D
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@OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) would be a better source than me but:
I know there were a couple UF/FSU bowl game rematches back in the 1990s including when UF won their first NC in 1996 and I *THINK* those were back-to-back for FSU but not UF because UF had the SECCG in between.
Also, even though they were back-to-back for FSU there was still over a month of time elapsed in between. That isn't quite the same situation as this would be with two teams playing each other seven days apart.
All correct, very good. 1994 & 1996 seasons.
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. . . A lot of SEC teams play OOC rivals the last weekend which prevents this from occuring (some do play rivals in conference of course). . . .
At least this season, most (12 of 16) play conference opponents.
Alabama-Auburn
Arkansas-Missouri
Florida-Florida State
Georgia-Georgia Tech
Kentucky-Louisville
LSU-Oklahoma
Ole Miss-Mississippi State
South Carolina-Clemson
Tennessee-Vanderbilt
Texas-Texas A&M