CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 17, 2025, 10:18:02 AM
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Ohio State's win over UCLA formally and mathematically eliminated all of the three-loss teams as both the Buckeyes and Hoosiers cannot finish with more than two losses (one in the case of IU). That eliminated all of the previous three-loss teams and at the same time Iowa and Minnesota picked up their third loss each so it is now a five-team race between:
- 8-0/11-0 Indiana: Off, at Purdue
- 7-0/10-0 Ohio State: vs Rutgers, at Michigan
- 6-1/9-1 Oregon (lost to IU): vs USC, at Washington
- 6-1/8-2 USC (lost to IL): at Oregon, vs UCLA
- 6-1/8-2 Michigan (lost to USC): at Maryland, vs Ohio State
The situation is obviously simple for the Hoosiers and Buckeyes. They control their own destiny. If they win out they'll meet in Indianapolis in what will likely be a #1 vs #2 showdown with the top seed in the CFP and possibly also the Heisman trophy on the line.
The other three need to keep winning. In Michigan's case, winning out gives tOSU a loss and thus gets them into at least a tie for the second B1GCG spot BUT the Wolverines DO NOT control their own destiny because while they would win a two-way tie with Ohio State, they would lose a two-way tie with USC and they would probably also lose a three-way tie with Ohio State and either USC or Oregon.
Here are the current cumulative league records of each of their league opponents:
(https://i.imgur.com/6C6FgeY.png)
As a practical matter, the only order that could probably flip is M/tOSU. Oregon's opponents three-game lead on USC's opponents is probably insurmountable as it USC's lead on Michigan and Ohio State's lead on Indiana. This matters because it ends up being the operative tiebreaker in most ties.
Let's talk scenarios. The most likely loss by one of the undefeated teams would be for Ohio State to lose in Ann Arbor. If that (and no other upsets) happens, we end up with a three-way tie between the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and the Oregon/USC winner.
Here are the tiebreakers (http://chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://img.boostsport.ai/697c15d2-6e70-4ca7-820e-61bebd904a9b-2024_Big_Ten_Football_Tiebreaker_-_FINAL_10__72_.pdf). Technically that says "2024 Big Ten . . ." but I do not see anything more recent so I *THINK* that still applies. For a tie involving three or more teams:
- H2H but only if all teams played each other or if one team beat each of the others. That couldn't apply in any potential tie so move to
- Record against common conference opponents.
- Record against the best team in the league, then the next, etc
- Best cumulative conference winning percentage by the teams' league opponents (see above)
- SportSource Ranking
- Random Draw
In the event of a three-way tie between Ohio State, Michigan, and either Oregon or USC I believe that the B1GCG would be between Indiana and either Oregon or USC.
So, bottom line:
- Indiana needs to beat Purdue
- Ohio State needs to beat Rutgers and Michigan
- Oregon needs to beat USC and Washington AND for Michigan to upset Ohio State
- USC needs to beat Oregon and UCLA AND for Michigan to upset Ohio State
- Michigan needs to beat Maryland and Ohio Sate AND either for Indiana to lose to Purdue or for the Ore/USC winner to lose their rivalry game.
I haven't focused much on the PU/IU game because while Ohio State will be something like a TD favorite in Ann Arbor, the Hoosiers are probably going to be a 4 TD favorite in West Lafayette but here goes:
If Indiana loses to Purdue then USC gets into the B1GCG by winning out. Oregon would need help because they'd lose a two-way tie with IU based on H2H so they'd still need an Ohio State loss.
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Very nice summary, I must admit.
This is probably the first week that doing one of these threads actually makes perfect sense. 2 weeks left in the regular season. All the pretenders are now officially eliminated and what it takes for the remaining elligible teams to make it into the CCG is pretty straight forward, at least compared to previous weeks.
Interesting that Michigan could win out and is still not guarunteed a spot in the CCG. But Michigan did it to themselves by losing badly to USC.
The USC-Oregon game is without question the BigTen game of week, with a potential CFP berth also in play. I guess CBS made the right call waiting for USC to get its one-game mandatory appearance on BTN out the way against Iowa.
I believe Oregon could possibly still lose to USC and still make it into the CFP field. USC probably needs to beat Oregon and UCLA to make the CFP..
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Yes, teams with 3 or more losses are mostly playing to make the best bowl possible now.
10 teams have at least 6 wins and are already bowl elliglible
Indiana, Ohio St, Oregon, USC, Mich, Iowa, Wash, Minn, ILL and Neb
2 teams are 5-5 and need 1 more win to become bowl elligible
NW - plays Minn and @ILL
Rut - plays @Ohio St and Penn St
2 teams are 4-6 and need 2 more wins to become bowl elligible
Penn St - plays Neb and @Rut
MD - plays Mich and Mich St
4 teams have 7 or more losses and are eliminated from being bowl elligible
UCLA, Mich St, Wisc and Purdue
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FWIW:
A win this week by either Ohio State (vs RU) OR Michigan (at UMD) eliminates the possibility of a 2-loss team making the B1GCG. Ohio State is a 31.5 point favorite at home against the Knights and Michigan is a 13.5 point favorite in College Park so the chances of neither of those things happening are probably <1%.
As a practical matter that means that the USC/Oregon loser is out and if Michigan were to get upset at Maryland they would be out as well.
More than likely we we go into the final weekend with only three games relevant to berths in the B1GCG:
- The Game
- The Old Oaken Bucket Game
- Either Victory Bell Game or the Apple Cup
There are only eight possible outcomes of three games (2*2*2) so we'll be able to pretty easily nail down all possibilities.
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More than likely we we go into the final weekend with only three games relevant to berths in the B1GCG:
- The Game
- The Old Oaken Bucket Game
- Either Victory Bell Game or the Apple Cup
There are only eight possible outcomes of three games (2*2*2) so we'll be able to pretty easily nail down all possibilities.
One minor nitpick, I am guessing you already probably knew this.
the Apple Cup is the annual trophy game between Washington and Wash St that used to be played at the end of the season and is now played in Sep/Oct.
I am not sure if Washington and Oregon actually have a trophy game with each other, which is kinda weird given their long history of playing each other.
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One minor nitpick, I am guessing you already probably knew this.
the Apple Cup is the annual trophy game between Washington and Wash St that used to be played at the end of the season and is now played in Sep/Oct.
I am not sure if Washington and Oregon actually have a trophy game with each other, which is kinda weird given their long history of playing each other.
You are right!
I knew that but in my head I was thinking "Washington's last game of the year" and came up with Apple Cup because it used to be and I'm old.
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You are right!
I knew that but in my head I was thinking "Washington's last game of the year" and came up with Apple Cup because it used to be and I'm old.
Well you can still figure out tiebreakers a lot better than this old man (me)