CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on August 26, 2018, 08:27:18 AM
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All votes:
| Team/Poster | | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range |
| tOSU | | 2.23 | 1 | 1.54 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| UW | | 2.38 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| PSU | | 3.00 | 3 | 1.58 | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| MSU | | 3.38 | 4 | 1.19 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| M | | 4.31 | 5 | 1.65 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Iowa | | 6.31 | 6 | 0.85 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| NU | | 7.08 | 7 | 1.26 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| PU | | 8.23 | 8 | 1.36 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| UNL | | 9.31 | 9 | 1.60 | 7 | 13 | 6 |
| MD | | 10.38 | 10 | 2.02 | 8 | 14 | 6 |
| IU | | 10.69 | 11 | 1.11 | 8 | 12 | 4 |
| MN | | 11.08 | 12 | 1.04 | 9 | 12 | 3 |
| ILL | | 13.23 | 13 | 0.83 | 12 | 14 | 2 |
| RU | | 13.38 | 14 | 0.65 | 12 | 14 | 2 |
Drop the high and low:
| Team/Poster | | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range |
| tOSU | | 2.09 | 1 | 1.38 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| UW | | 2.36 | 2 | 0.50 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| PSU | | 2.91 | 3 | 1.30 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| MSU | | 3.45 | 4 | 0.93 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| M | | 4.36 | 5 | 1.21 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Iowa | | 6.27 | 6 | 0.65 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| NU | | 7.09 | 7 | 1.04 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| PU | | 8.18 | 8 | 0.98 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| UNL | | 9.18 | 9 | 1.08 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| MD | | 10.27 | 10 | 1.74 | 8 | 13 | 5 |
| IU | | 10.82 | 11 | 0.75 | 9 | 12 | 3 |
| MN | | 11.18 | 12 | 0.87 | 10 | 12 | 2 |
| ILL | | 13.27 | 13 | 0.79 | 12 | 14 | 2 |
| RU | | 13.45 | 14 | 0.52 | 13 | 14 | 1 |
(https://thumb.ibb.co/k8N7Ze/B1_GPR_2018_pre_avg.jpg)<br /> (https://ibb.co/k8N7Ze)(https://thumb.ibb.co/iBGFnz/B1_GPR_2018_pre_vote_dist.jpg) (https://ibb.co/iBGFnz)<br />
Schedule/performance chart:
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | tOSU | UW | PSU | MSU | M | Iowa | NU | PU | UNL | MD | IU | MN | ILL | RU | Team | . |
| 1 | tOSU | n/a | miss | 9/29, H | 11/10, H | 11/24, A | miss | miss | 10/20, H | 11/3, A | 11/17, H | 10/6, A | 10/13, A | miss | 9/8, A | tOSU | 1 |
| 2 | UW | miss | n/a | 11/10, H | miss | 10/13, H | 9/22, H | 10/27, H | 11/17, H | 10/6, A | miss | miss | 11/24, A | 10/20, A | 11/3, A | UW | 2 |
| 3 | PSU | 9/29, A | 11/10, A | n/a | 10/13, A | 11/3, H | 10/27, A | miss | miss | miss | 11/24, A | 10/20, H | miss | 9/21, H | 11/17, H | PSU | 3 |
| 4 | MSU | 11/10, A | miss | 10/13, H | n/a | 10/20, A | miss | 10/6, A | 10/27, A | 11/17, H | 11/3, H | 9/22, H | miss | miss | 11/24, A | MSU | 4 |
| 5 | M | 11/24, H | 10/13, A | 11/3, A | 10/20, H | n/a | miss | 9/29, H | miss | 9/22, A | 10/6, A | 11/17, A | miss | miss | 11/10, H | M | 5 |
| 6 | Iowa | miss | 9/22, A | 10/27, H | miss | miss | n/a | 11/10, A | 11/3, H | 11/23, A | 10/20, A | 10/13, H | 10/6, H | 11/17, H | miss | Iowa | 6 |
| 7 | NU | miss | 10/27, A | miss | 10/6, H | 9/29, A | 11/10, H | n/a | 8/30, H | 10/13, A | miss | miss | 11/17, A | 9/21, H | 10/20, H | NU | 7 |
| 8 | PU | 10/20, A | 11/17, A | miss | 10/27, H | miss | 11/3, A | 8/30, A | n/a | 9/29, H | miss | 11/24, H | 11/10, H | 10/13, H | miss | PU | 8 |
| 9 | UNL | 11/3, H | 10/6, H | miss | 11/17, A | 9/22, H | 11/23, H | 10/13, H | 9/29, A | n/a | miss | miss | 10/20, A | 11/10, A | miss | UNL | 9 |
| 10 | MD | 11/17, A | miss | 11/24, H | 11/3, A | 10/6, H | 10/20, H | miss | miss | miss | n/a | 11/10, H | 9/22, A | 10/27, A | 10/13, A | MD | 10 |
| 11 | IU | 10/6, H | miss | 10/20, A | 9/22, H | 11/17, H | 10/13, A | miss | 11/24, A | miss | 11/10, A | n/a | 10/26, H | miss | 9/29, H | IU | 11 |
| 12 | MN | 10/13, H | 11/24, H | miss | miss | miss | 10/6, A | 11/17, A | 11/10, A | 10/20, H | 9/22, H | 10/26, A | n/a | 11/3, H | miss | MN | 12 |
| 13 | ILL | miss | 10/20, H | 9/21, A | miss | miss | 11/17,A | 11/24, H | 10/13, A | 11/10, H | 10/27, H | miss | 11/3, A | n/a | 10/6, H | ILL | 13 |
| 14 | RU | 9/8, H | 11/3, H | 11/17, A | 11/24, H | 11/10, A | miss | 10/20, A | miss | miss | 10/13, H | 9/29, A | miss | 10/6, A | n/a | RU | 14 |
| . | Team | tOSU | UW | PSU | MSU | M | Iowa | NU | PU | UNL | MD | IU | MN | ILL | RU | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
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Big Ten Title Contenders:
1 Ohio State
2 Penn State
3 Wisconsin
4 Michigan State
Teams that will be Worse than Notre Dame:
5 Michigan
6 Iowa
7 Nebraska
8 Maryland
9 Northwestern
10 Purdue
11 Indiana
12 Minnesota
13 Rutgers
14 Illinois
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- Michigan State
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Iowa
- Purdue
- Northwestern
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- Indiana
- Illinois
- Rutgers
- Maryland
Difficult to know how to account for off-field issues at Maryland, Rutgers, and Ohio State. At Maryland there is uncertainty over who will be head coach this season. Rutgers just had 8-players arrested for a credit card fraud scheme that has been investigated over the past 4-months. Seems like that would be a considerable distraction for the entire team. How one should take these things into account in a preseason ranking, I am not sure, but I took them into account.
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1. OSU
2. MSU
3. Michigan
4. UW
5. Iowa
6. PSU
7. Purdue
8. Northwestern
9. Maryland
10. Nebraska
11. Indiana
12. Minnesota
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
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I could only do groups, which are pretty obvious:
1. OSU, PSU, UM, MSU, Wisconsin
2. Iowa, Purdue, UNL, NW
3. The rest headed by Indiana
The top is great, the middle weakish, and the bottom pretty bad.
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1. Penn State
2. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan State
5. Iowa
6. Michigan
7. Northwestern
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
10. Indiana
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
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Things I look for in a team to be great:
1. A great offensive line, first and foremost.
2. An experienced decent QB.
3. Great line backers.
4. Great kicking game.
Everything else needs to be at least pretty good. Wisconsin might be in their year. Penn State has the No. 2.
UGA went from mediocre to nearly winning it all because of 1, 3, and 4.
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1) PSU - plays toughest games at home
2) Wisc - plays PSU for title
3) Mich - Harbaugh figures out the MSU/OSU thing.
4) MSU - Really good coach. not sure they have the horses to keep up with the top.
5) OSU - losing Head coach for 7 weeks takes it toll
6) Iowa
7) Nebraska
8) Northwestern
9) Purdue
10) Minnesota
11) Indiana
12) Maryland
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers - Dumpster Fire
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If PSU is still in the Big East chase in the last two weeks of November, I'll really have to believe in Franklin. But so far I only believe in Moorehead.
Before JM, I believe JF was 14-12. And even in that first season with Moorehead, in moments where the only coach making a contribution was Franklin, he still made incomprehensible in-game decisions like kicking that field goal versus Michigan when down 28-0 in the 3rd quarter.
This season will let me know how right or wrong my hunch is.
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So hard before seeing a single game.
Subject to major changes after 3 weeks.
1 Michigan
2 Wisconsin
3 PSU
4 OSU
5 MSU
6 Iowa
7 purdue
8 Nebraska
9 northwestern
10 Minnesota
11 Indiana
12 Illinois
13 Maryland
14 Rutgers.
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not much love for northwestern
did they lose that much?
finished 6th last season?
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not much love for northwestern
did they lose that much?
finished 6th last season?
Your probably right. Pre-season guesses on my part lol.
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan State
4. Penn State
5. Michigan
6. Northwestern
7. Iowa
8. Indiana
9. Maryland
10. Nebraska
11. Purdue
12. Minnesota
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
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1) OSU
2) Wisconsin
3) PSU
4) Michigan
5) MSU
6) Northwestern
7) Iowa
8) Maryland
9) Purdue
10) Nebraska
11) Indiana
12) Minnesota
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
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1) OSU
2) PSU
3) Wisconsin
4) MSU
5) Michigan
6) Northwestern
7) Iowa
8) Purdue
9) Maryland
10) Nebraska
11) Indiana
12) Minn
13) Ill
14) Rutgers
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1. Ohio State: I'm still a bit skeptical about the quarterback situation, but I do like the offensive coaching staff and everything else is pretty strong. Very few questions marks outside of the end of the JT experience.
2. Wisconsin: Losing a couple receivers might tick them down from one. Again, few questions, lots of experience, and no reason they shouldn't be in the B1G championship game again.
3. Penn State: Biggest question is whether they can pick up where they left off on offense in losing Joe Moorhead as well as some great weapons. Elsewhere, they are strong and finally getting completely equipped as the sanctions become a distant memory.
4. Michigan State: No reason to expect they won't be scrapping with everyone and might end up on top. Intrigued to see how Lewerke looks.
5. Michigan: Putting them last among the top five teams just because of how uninspired they looked in the bowl game. But again, the defense will be great, and if the offense can just be average they could shoot to the top.
6. Purdue: Why not? Let's see some big improvement now that they've got a year into things.
7. Northwestern: Team scrap will scrap.
8. Iowa: Maybe we get Great Iowa again this year. Maybe not.
9. Nebraska: Team Frost will have some growing pains but will benefit from a renewed focus on knocking the crap out of people.
10. Minnesota: Will the boat get rowed a little better this season?
11. Maryland: Man, who knows where this team is.
12. Indiana: Not sure what to expect out of them.
13. Rutgers: Nah
14. Illinois: Blech
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4 seniors and a junior on the OL, with perhaps the best stable of running backs in the Big Ten, and we're so low.
I don't know how we'll be with the distractions, but we're deficient at LB.
DL has been upgraded, WR's are all tall but unproven. Secondary is experienced.
QB's are healthy and it appears Hill will start.
I know many here think Maryland has 5th team talent, but they're wrong.
If they truly can put the distractions away, and can run behind that OL, control the clock, I think we can surprise a few.
Texas will tell a lot.
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I really had no idea where to put Maryland with these distractions. They could surprise and end up beating out Mich or MSU.... OR end up with Rutgers. I think many feel that way. The team has talent. But will they be a team?
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I really had no idea where to put Maryland with these distractions. They could surprise and end up beating out Mich or MSU.... OR end up with Rutgers. I think many feel that way. The team has talent. But will they be a team?
I agree and I would like to add that another issue vis-a-vis Maryland is that the B1G-E is one of the toughest divisions in CFB and probably has the strongest top-4 teams in CFB. If tOSU, MSU, PSU, and M all perform at expectations they will all be at least borderline CFP contenders.
In most divisions in CFB, if a team beat a single CFP contender in their division they would likely win the division. In this division Maryland could beat a CFP contender and still finish 3-3 in the division.
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1) PSU
2) Wisconsin
3) MSU
4) OSU
5) Michigan
6) Northwestern
7) Iowa
8) Nebraska
9) Purdue
10) Maryland
11) Indiana
12) Minnesota
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
Really wanted to prop up Big Red Bucky at #1, couldn't do it.
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I know many here think Maryland has 5th team talent, but they're wrong.
Where do you have them talent wise? Recruiting ranks they are 5th in the East, and closer to Indiana (6th) than MSU (4th.
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Where do you have them talent wise? Recruiting ranks they are 5th and closer to Indiana (6th) than MSU (4th.
What rankings are you looking at?
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good question
if OSU, Michigan, PSU are top 3, MSU is 4th, Maryland 5th, Indiana 6th, that might mean Huskers are 7th, Badgers 8th?
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1. OSU
2. WISC
3. MSU
4. PSU
5. NW
6. IOWA
7. MICH
8. Pur
9. Indy
10. MD
11. Minn
12. Rut
13. NEB
14. ILL
Hey, its preseason. Not going to put a lot of thought into this. A lot of this is based on how teams finished last season with a few tweaks.
It is easy to forget how NW and MSU got screwed in the bowl pecking order last season in favor of Mich. Mich was not that great.last year. Of course, maybe that was the key to the Big Ten's 7-1 bowl record.
Mich always seems to be over-rated in pre-season. Harbaugh's teams always look like national champs in week 6 and then fizzle down the stretch.
Just about every team seems to be dealing with distractions and suspensions. If they are handled right, it could make them better down the road.
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not much love for northwestern
did they lose that much?
finished 6th last season?
I had NW ranked 5th at the end of last season.
I had Iowa 6th since their best victory was OSU
I had Mich at #7 since their best win I believe was over #8 Purdue.
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I would agree with your ranks at the end of last season and picks this season
many had NW 8th, a few 9th
I know Fitz has had trouble putting good seasons back to back, but if the QB is healthy there's no reason to put them 8th
but heck, I'm probably wrong again
would like to see the Huskers and Hawks finish ahead of NW in the West, but I just don't see it
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Northwestern is sorta like the Bizarro Michigan, in that they usually finish ranked a lot higher than where they were when they started.
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Harbaugh's teams always look like national champs in week 6 and then fizzle down the stretch.
Last year, I'd say Michigan looked the same all season - meh. However, I'll admit they looked like East contenders 6 weeks into 2015 and 2016. And also in the end were.
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Last year they were 5-1 of course with a 4 point home loss to a good team and ended up 8-5 including a strange melt down against South Carolina, so 3-4 in the latter half, which is not good, and that included an OT win over Indiana.
The win over Florida looked less impressive as the season progressed, but the win over Purdue looked better.
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No changes from my countdown...
- WISCONSIN - best team on paper, but with a FAR tougher schedule than last year
- MICHIGAN STATE - returned basically everyone from a 10-3 team, but can they handle the hunted role?
- OHIO STATE - plenty of turnover and coaching issues, but if they can survive the first half, they still have more talent on the roster than anyone
- PENN STATE - depends on whether it was McSorley or Moorehead that keyed the turnaround, I'm oddly unconcerned about the loss of Barkley
- MICHIGAN - and yet I still have them #11 in the nation. Nobody in the country has a tougher 6 toughest games than Michigan though
- IOWA - need to have a solid year into what could be a REALLY good 2019 team
- NORTHWESTERN - Thorson injury really hurts what is the most talented Northwestern team, maybe ever?
- PURDUE - smack in the middle, I think substantially below the top 7, and substantially above the bottom 6
- MARYLAND - if the QB play is the massive upgrade it could be, they will nip one of the top 4 in the East, depending on the coaching uncertainty
- NEBRASKA - give it a year
- MINNESOTA - toss 9-11 in a hat, but in a tossup, I'm not betting on Fleck
- INDIANA - program seems to have stagnated, while the other teams in their range (Purdue, Nebraska and Minnesota) at least have buzz around their coach
- RUTGERS - moving on up!
- ILLINOIS - no chance Lovie is still here in 2019
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Fleshing out Maryland's difficulties in the B1G-E a little bit:
According to the Worldwide Leader (http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24332984/ranking-every-college-football-power-5-conference-division), the B1G-E is the second strongest division in CFB. That ranking is based on the entire division tough and where the B1G-E really loses out compared to the SEC-W is that the SEC-W's three weakest teams are clearly superior to the B1G-E's three weakest. This will likely be true even if Maryland is really good because I just don't think that Rutgers and Indiana are at anywhere near the level of aTm, Arky, and Ole Miss.
The top-4, however, are a different story. Here are the top-4 in the B1G-E with their AP and Coaches rankings:
- #5/3 Ohio State
- #10/9 Penn State
- #11/12 Michigan State
- #14/14 Michigan
No other division has four teams in the top-15. In fact, no other entire conference even has four teams in the top-14. The next best top-4 reside in the SEC-W:
- #1/1 Bama
- #9/10 Auburn
- #18/18 MissSt
- #25/24 LSU
The SEC-W has an advantage at #1 while #2 is a wash. The B1G-E is substantially stronger at #3 and #4.
Then there is the issue of scheduling. In theory the easiest of the top-4 to knock off should be the lowest ranked, #14 Michigan. The problem is that Maryland travels to Ann Arbor.
The two that Maryland gets at home are MSU on 11/3 and tOSU on 11/17. Those are probably their two best chances both because they are home games and because both are potential "trap games" for the opponent. Maryland gets MSU right before the Spartans host Ohio State and they get Ohio State right before the Buckeyes host Michigan.
I honestly think that Maryland's best chance for a top-4 scalp is Ohio State. For the Buckeyes, the Maryland game is tucked in between a trip to East Lansing and hosting Michigan. It certainly not impossible to picture a worn out Buckeye team coming off of a tough game in East Lansing and looking ahead to a tough rivalry game against Michigan getting knocked off in College Park.
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What rankings are you looking at?
In the East. In the East.
Updated to previous post to reflect that.
I used: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2018/2/8/16990550/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2018-class
And clicked on to order on the 5 year ranking.
EAST
1) OSU (2 overall)
2) PSU (16)
3) M*ch (22)
4) MSU (23)
5) Maryland (37)
6) Indiana (47)
7) Rutgers (60)
15 spots separate Maryland from MSU, and 10 from Indiana. I hold to my statement that Maryland talent wise is closer to 6th than 4th.
WEST
1) Nebraska (25)
2) Wisconsin (35)
3) Iowa (46)
4) Minn (48)
5) NW (53)
6) Ill (59)
7) Pur (69)
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The 2016 recruiting rankings may be worth a relook. These kids are juniors now, right?
https://247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
https://247sports.com/Season/2015-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
The usual suspects are up high, including Florida State, who I think could be formidable this season. LSU with Burrow could be formidable as well. Tennessee is in the second ten, so we can figure they may be competitive and possibly an 8-4 kind of team, maybe if they get by WVU in an upset.
Dawg fans should like the past four years of rankings. Obviously some folks left a year early from 2015.
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Last year they were 5-1 of course with a 4 point home loss to a good team and ended up 8-5 including a strange melt down against South Carolina, so 3-4 in the latter half, which is not good, and that included an OT win over Indiana.
The win over Florida looked less impressive as the season progressed, but the win over Purdue looked better.
We knew by the end of the Purdue game, the best QB was injured and the OL was consistently doing incoherent things. We knew who Michigan was.
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No changes from my countdown...
- WISCONSIN - best team on paper, but with a FAR tougher schedule than last year
- MICHIGAN STATE - returned basically everyone from a 10-3 team, but can they handle the hunted role?
- OHIO STATE - plenty of turnover and coaching issues, but if they can survive the first half, they still have more talent on the roster than anyone
- PENN STATE - depends on whether it was McSorley or Moorehead that keyed the turnaround, I'm oddly unconcerned about the loss of Barkley
- MICHIGAN - and yet I still have them #11 in the nation. Nobody in the country has a tougher 6 toughest games than Michigan though
- IOWA - need to have a solid year into what could be a REALLY good 2019 team
- NORTHWESTERN - Thorson injury really hurts what is the most talented Northwestern team, maybe ever?
- PURDUE - smack in the middle, I think substantially below the top 7, and substantially above the bottom 6
- MARYLAND - if the QB play is the massive upgrade it could be, they will nip one of the top 4 in the East, depending on the coaching uncertainty
- NEBRASKA - give it a year
- MINNESOTA - toss 9-11 in a hat, but in a tossup, I'm not betting on Fleck
- INDIANA - program seems to have stagnated, while the other teams in their range (Purdue, Nebraska and Minnesota) at least have buzz around their coach
- RUTGERS - moving on up!
- ILLINOIS - no chance Lovie is still here in 2019
Not sure about being unconcerned with the loss of Barkley for Penn State. Barkley did everything for them except play defense. He was their running back, wide receiver and return man. That's a lot to loose.
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I honestly think that Maryland's best chance for a top-4 scalp is Ohio State. For the Buckeyes, the Maryland game is tucked in between a trip to East Lansing and hosting Michigan. It certainly not impossible to picture a worn out Buckeye team coming off of a tough game in East Lansing and looking ahead to a tough rivalry game against Michigan getting knocked off in College Park.
Good pick. We saw it happen to OSU last year when OSU traveled to Iowa City after a tough game against PSU the week before and they had to play MSU the week after.
It just seemed like OSU had nothing in the gas tank in the 2nd half at Iowa.
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I could only do groups, which are pretty obvious:
1. OSU, PSU, UM, MSU, Wisconsin
2. Iowa, Purdue, UNL, NW
3. The rest headed by Indiana
The top is great, the middle weakish, and the bottom pretty bad.
For future reference I only use complete ballots (all teams listed) in the compilation.
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@Drew4UTk (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1)
It might just be my ignorance, but is there a way for me to make the charts (they are uploaded here as jpegs) bigger so that people can actually see them?
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@Drew4UTk (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1)
It might just be my ignorance, but is there a way for me to make the charts (they are uploaded here as jpegs) bigger so that people can actually see them?
instead of linking them, upload them here. they should render a decent size, and even if they don't they will link to (internal) address where they can be seen full size.
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instead of linking them, upload them here. they should render a decent size, and even if they don't they will link to (internal) address where they can be seen full size.
I did upload and you are right, if you click on either of the charts it opens in a full-size window.