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The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 12, 2025, 11:56:20 AM

Title: Week 12 Top-25 and B1G at a glance
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 12, 2025, 11:56:20 AM
I waited until Wednesday so that I could use the CFP rankings:



#14 Vanderbilt is off, the other 24 teams are in action this weekend.  The ranked vs ranked games are:
In addition to those eight ranked teams with challenging games, the following are underdogs or favored by single digits:

It may seem odd that GameDay is going to Pitt for the Notre Dame/Pitt game when they have higher-ranked matchups in Tuscaloosa and Athens but the Pitt/ND game is more important than you may realize.  Realistically, this is Notre Dame's last challenging game.  After Pitt they host the Orange and visit the Tree.  Syracuse and Stanford are two of the worst teams in the ACC so Notre Dame should cruise in those games.  That means that if they beat Pitt they will almost certainly end up 10-2 and on a 10-game winning streak.  Given that they are currently ranked #9, that their losses were both close, that their losses were to teams ranked #3 and #15, and that some other teams will necessarily lose, Notre Dame is a near-lock for the playoff at 10-2 and has basically no chance at 9-3 so this game is important to all those teams on or near the bubble.  


Finally, I'll point out that I think some teams are effectively playing to clinch CFP bids.  Ohio State and aTm are both 9-0 and I am fairly certain that either would make the field at 10-2 so a win this weekend locks up a bid.  Indiana at 10-0 may have already locked up a bid but a win this weekend would eliminate any lingering doubt.  

Now the B1G:

Nebraska and Rutgers are off this week.  

A lot of teams are sitting at six losses and will be eliminated from bowl consideration with one more loss.  The MSU/PSU loser is out as are UW and UCLA if they lose to IU and tOSU respectively.  
Title: Re: Week 12 Top-25 and B1G at a glance
Post by: ManHawk on November 12, 2025, 12:34:04 PM
Oregon and Iowa both have tricky turnaround games after playing a fully rain-soaked game in Iowa City last Saturday.

Oregon needs to turn around and play Minn on Friday night.  At least its a home game for Oregon,  but this has potential trap game written all over it.  Minn had an extra off week to prepare,  which makes it a little easier than a Friday road game on the west coast normally would be.  Minn is right between 2 ranked teams Oregon needs to play.  Oregon can't afford to look ahead.  Oregon probably could afford to lose one more time and still sneak into the playoffs,  but losing to Minn is probably the worst team for them to lose to.

Iowa is still surprisingly ranked in the CFP rankings, although making the playoffs is no longer likely.  But if Iowa has any chance at all,  they need to start by shaking off the Oregon loss and head to USC this Saturday and upset the Trojans.

USC's chances to make the playoffs look pretty good if the win out,  but that means beating Iowa, Oregon and UCLA.

Michigan also can get in if they win out,  which means they would have to upset Ohio St in their final game.

Washington and Minneosta I would say have no chance to make the playoffs although both could still finish 9-3 if they win out. 
Title: Re: Week 12 Top-25 and B1G at a glance
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 12, 2025, 02:18:10 PM
Quote from: ManHawk on Today at 12:34:04 PM
Minn had an extra off week to prepare,  which makes it a little easier than a Friday road game on the west coast normally would be.  
I really like what Minnesota did here for scheduling a West Coast Road Trip.  This is the lowest impact a West Coast trip could possibly be.  They had an extra week before the game so travel there shouldn't be an issue and they are playing a day early so they'll probably fly home on Saturday morning and have a normal practice week as if they had played at home or nearby on Saturday.  

As to the rest of your post, I agree on Minnesota looking like a potential trap game for the Ducks but I'm not sure that the Gophers are good enough to take advantage.  Maybe.  
Title: Re: Week 12 Top-25 and B1G at a glance
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 12, 2025, 02:25:18 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on Today at 02:18:10 PM
I really like what Minnesota did here for scheduling a West Coast Road Trip.  This is the lowest impact a West Coast trip could possibly be.  They had an extra week before the game so travel there shouldn't be an issue and they are playing a day early so they'll probably fly home on Saturday morning and have a normal practice week as if they had played at home or nearby on Saturday. 

As to the rest of your post, I agree on Minnesota looking like a potential trap game for the Ducks but I'm not sure that the Gophers are good enough to take advantage.  Maybe. 
The B1G has done Minnie a lot of favors this season.

Minnie even made themselves a cupcake OOC but managed to lose one of them.
Title: Re: Week 12 Top-25 and B1G at a glance
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 12, 2025, 02:45:41 PM
In terms of the overall playoff picture, the SEC is in an interesting place.  There are currently seven SEC teams with two or less losses in the league and only two of them (Texas - at tOSU and Bama - at FSU) have an OOC loss.  It is theoretically possible for all seven to finish 10-2 or better overall and either 6-2 or 7-1 in the league:




This *COULD* all work itself out.  Texas (at UGA) and Oklahoma (at Bama) have tough road games that they are underdogs in this weekend and Vandy will probably be an underdog at Tennessee.  If those three lose those games then there will be no more than four SEC teams with less than three losses so those four probably make the CFP.  But there is a chaos scenario:

So imagine this:
The CG spots would be allocated by tiebreaker among the 7-1 teams (aTm, Bama, Ole Miss, Texas).  I have no idea how that works out.  

The two one-loss teams (aTm and Ole Miss) would be safely in at 11-1 if they missed the CG, they would get auto-bids if they won the CG, and I don't think the committee would drop them at 11-2 with a CG loss.  I would think UGA would be safely in with an OOC win over a fairly highly ranked GaTech but that might depend on how good that win looks at the end of the season.  

aTm has the best OOC win of the bunch (ND) but that could change based on how ND and M finish.  There wouldn't be room for all seven of these teams in the CFP Field.  
Title: Re: Week 12 Top-25 and B1G at a glance
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 12, 2025, 03:49:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on Today at 02:25:18 PM
The B1G has done Minnie a lot of favors this season.

Minnie even made themselves a cupcake OOC but managed to lose one of them.
Don't tell the boy, but I don't think Minnesota is very good. I think they've benefitted from exactly what 847Badge points out, beating a bunch of other poor teams in Minneapolis (by a hair in almost every instance). Oregon will crush them. Nice win over Nebraska, but that's their entire resume (and, sorry Fearless, Nebraska isn't that good, either--but at least they are both better than Wisconsin).
Title: Re: Week 12 Top-25 and B1G at a glance
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 12, 2025, 03:52:19 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on Today at 03:49:24 PM
Don't tell the boy, but I don't think Minnesota is very good. I think they've benefitted from exactly what 847Badge points out, beating a bunch of other poor teams in Minneapolis (by a hair in almost every instance). Oregon will crush them. Nice win over Nebraska, but that's their entire resume (and, sorry Fearless, Nebraska isn't that good, either--but at least they are both better than Wisconsin).
I feel a little decent about one more win for UW this season. Minnie is that one.
Title: Re: Week 12 Top-25 and B1G at a glance
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 12, 2025, 04:15:27 PM
In Minneapolis? Is it the most likely remaining win? Sure. But I will still be surprised if it happens.

This week, on the other hand, will be a blood bath; the reverse of the 2010 massacre.

This belongs on the Wisconsin season thread, but, seriously, the leeway McIntosh is giving Fickell is insane given what he fired Chryst for. I'm not arguing that it was a bad decision to fire Chryst. Many people argued at the time that it had to be done. Ok, fine. But the double standard is just wild.
Title: Re: Week 12 Top-25 and B1G at a glance
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 12, 2025, 05:01:10 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on Today at 03:49:24 PM
Don't tell the boy, but I don't think Minnesota is very good. I think they've benefitted from exactly what 847Badge points out, beating a bunch of other poor teams in Minneapolis (by a hair in almost every instance). Oregon will crush them. Nice win over Nebraska, but that's their entire resume (and, sorry Fearless, Nebraska isn't that good, either--but at least they are both better than Wisconsin).
Yeah, I do a thing where I list results by quality of opposition and it really makes the weakness of Minnesota's resume stand out.  

As you said, Nebraska is their entire resume.  Their other three league wins were:
 @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) is right, they scheduled a complete cupcake OOC.  They beat a MAC team that lost to Akron (Buffalo), a horrible FCS team (Northwestern State is 0-6 in the Southland and 1-9 overall), and lost to California which is .500 in a bad ACC.  

Minnesota has REALLY benefitted from the H/A split.  They got annihilated in Columbus and Iowa City by a combined 83-6 but realistically they weren't going to beat the Buckeyes or Hawkeyes no matter where those games were played.  Getting those obvious losses on the road saved HFA for games where it may well have been the difference against the Knights, Boilermakers, and Spartans.  Now they finish up with trips to Eugene and Evanston (is NU playing in Evanston this year?) and the Axe game at home.  I wouldn't be shocked to see them lose out.  
Title: Re: Week 12 Top-25 and B1G at a glance
Post by: ManHawk on November 12, 2025, 06:00:50 PM
How did the Iowa-USC game end up on BTN instead of CBS?