CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 10, 2025, 02:29:28 PM
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At this point the 2-loss teams are still mathematically in the race but as a practical matter they are out because while one or two upsets could happen, the 2-loss teams would need a plethora of unlikely upsets. Thus, the race for all practical purposes is down to five teams. Here they are with what they have left:
- 7-0 Indiana: vs UW, off, at PU
- 6-0 Ohio State: vs UCLA, vs RU, at M
- 5-1 USC: vs IA, at Ore, vs UCLA
- 5-1 Oregon: vs MN, vs USC, at UDub
- 5-1 Michigan: at NU, at UMD, vs tOSU
Note that with USC and Oregon playing each other the maximum number of teams that can finish with one loss or less is four: Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, and the USC/ORE winner.
If there is a 2-way tie the tiebreaker is H2H unless the teams didn't play. In the event of a tie involving more than two teams H2H only controls if all the tied teams played each other or if one of them beat all of the others and neither of those things are mathematically possible so the operative tiebreaker would most likely be "cumulative league record of league opponents" (aka SoS) and at that point here it is:
(https://i.imgur.com/tevHBwi.png)
This is bad news for the Hoosiers and Buckeyes (if they should lose) and it is really bad news for Michigan because even if they manage to win out they can't get to the CG without help. Note that USC's opponents are four games ahead of Michigan's opponents while Oregon's opponents are six games ahead of Michigan's opponents. That isn't likely to be made up down the stretch so basically Michigan needs the Oregon/USC winner to drop a game somewhere along the line.
Bottom line:
- 7-0 Indiana: Just win baby. A loss would devastate their CG hopes as probably the only tie they could win would be a 2-way tie with Oregon.
- 6-0 Ohio State: Just win baby. Any loss would probably knock the Buckeyes out of the CG. A loss to either UCLA or Rutgers would probably put them in a tie with the Oregon/USC winner and a loss to M would add the Wolverines to that tie and the Buckeyes would likely lose any of those ties.
- 5-1 Oregon/USC: Win out and hope the Buckeyes or Hoosiers lose to their rivals.
- 5-1 Michigan: Win out and hope for either Iowa to take out USC in SoCal or UDub to take out Oregon in Seattle and then for whichever team (USC or ORE) lost to beat the other. Either of those would create a 2-way tie that they would win based on H2H.
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Since I know @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) will ask and @ManHawk (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=2351) may also be interested:
For the two-loss teams (Iowa, MN):
They can only tie Indiana. They also need Ohio State to lose at least two of their last three, for Michigan to lose at least one of their last three, and for the Oregon/USC winner to lose a game. All of that gets them into at least a tie for a slot in the CG but they still have to win that tie.
For the three-loss teams (UNL, UDub, NU, IL, UCLA):
They can't catch IU as the Hoosiers can do no worse than 7-2. They can catch tOSU but only if the Buckeyes lose out which would also give Michigan another win so they'd need Michigan to lose their other two and for the Oregon/USC winner to lose their other two and for the Oregon/USC loser to lose at least one additional game. All of that would create a tie at 6-3 for the second CG spot between at least the following teams:
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- The Oregon/USC winner
So they could mathematically get into a tie but it isn't realistic and even if they did get into that tie, they'd still have to win that tie.
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I still am not sure if 3-loss Nebraska, Illinois, NW, UCLA and Washington are all mathematically eliminated but I am not going to try to prove it.
Every time I get into 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers, my head starts spinning.
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I still am not sure if 3-loss Nebraska, Illinois, NW, UCLA and Washington are all mathematically eliminated but I am not going to try to prove it.
Every time I get into 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers, my head starts spinning.
That is where I am as well. If there is a potential 4-way tie heading into the final weekend, I'll figure it out but I'm not spending the time to figure out a hypothetical 4-way tie that has basically no chance of actually happening.
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Practice makes perfect. :098:
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it's not gonna happen
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That is where I am as well. If there is a potential 4-way tie heading into the final weekend, I'll figure it out but I'm not spending the time to figure out a hypothetical 4-way tie that has basically no chance of actually happening.
Yup, I think its enough to say if its mathematically possible for a team to finish in a 2nd place tie, then let's just say they are technically still alive in the chase, and leave it at that for this week.
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Yup, I think its enough to say if its mathematically possible for a team to finish in a 2nd place tie, then let's just say they are technically still alive in the chase, and leave it at that for this week.
Agreed because any of theses three things happening this weekend will mathematically eliminate the three-loss teams from even tying for 2nd:
- Ohio State getting their 7th win, or
- Michigan getting their 6th win, or
- BOTH Oregon and USC getting their 6th wins
All three of those things are favored so the chances of all three NOT happening are minuscule.
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Could it still be between a pair of 2-loss teams?
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Could it still be between a pair of 2-loss teams?
Mathematically, yes.
Realistically, no.
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Model outcomes here:
https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=fb
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Two games would throw the whole thing out of whack. Michigan over Ohio State, and Wisconsin over Indiana.
That would put Michigan and Oregon into the CCG. Wowzers.
I find it highly unlikely that Indiana loses or Ohio State for the rest of the regular season.
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Two games would throw the whole thing out of whack. Michigan over Ohio State, and Wisconsin over Indiana.
That would put Michigan and Oregon into the CCG. Wowzers.
I find it highly unlikely that Indiana loses or Ohio State for the rest of the regular season.
Hey, unlikely or not, let's just have fun with the idea of Indiana losing.
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Hey, unlikely or not, let's just have fun with the idea of Indiana losing.
I'd be fine with it.
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Lets talk about CFP chances for B1G teams, I think this thread is as good a place as any.
There are a slew of SEC teams with two or less losses so I think it is safe to say that a three-loss team from the B1G is NOT getting into the playoff unless:
- They win the league despite the three losses (this would only be realistically possible for a team with an OOC loss such as Iowa (ISU), USC (ND), Minnesota (Cal) or Michigan (OU), or
- The third loss is IN the B1GCG: The Committee has shown over the years that they will NOT penalize a team for losing a CG that they earned their way into so if you go into the CG "in" the CFP, you probably aren't falling out by losing.
Thus the contenders:
10-0/7-0 Indiana, vs UW, off, at PU:
I think that the Hoosiers have probably already clinched but one more win ends all doubt.
9-0/6-0 Ohio State, vs UCLA, vs RU, at M:
IMHO, the Buckeyes need one more win. I think that 10-2 with a nice OOC win over Texas and mostly dominating wins over their opponents is in so basically the Buckeyes just need to go 1-2 over the last three.
8-1/5-1 Oregon, vs MN, vs USC, at UDub:
IMHO, the Ducks need two more wins. They *SHOULD* beat Minnesota tonight but if there was ever a trap game this is it. This game is on a short week after playing a tough, physical game in Iowa City and sandwiched between two ranked opponents. The Ducks also have a shot at the B1GCG but they'll need to win out and hope for an upset loss by the Buckeyes.
7-2/5-1 USC, vs Iowa, at ORE, vs UCLA:
I think the Trojans would love a redo of that Illinois game. Without that loss they'd probably only need to beat either Iowa OR Oregon but with that loss on the resume they probably need to beat both (and UCLA). If they do manage to get to 10-2 they'll have a really good argument with both losses being close and a H2H win over Michigan.
7-2/5-1 Michigan, at NU, at UMD, vs tOSU:
The Wolverines need to win out. If they lose to either Northwestern or Maryland then even an upset of the Buckeyes wouldn't get them in because that upset would be their only quality win. There are three currently-ranked teams on Michigan's schedule and they already lost to two of them (at OU, at USC). One note, I think that winning their last three then losing the B1GCG would get them in at 10-3 but they HAVE to win the three on the schedule.
6-3/4-2 Iowa, at USC, vs MSU, at UNL:
I don't think Iowa can make it without chaos. I just don't think that 9-3/7-2 is good enough with a loss to a middling ISU team so they'd need to sneak into the B1GCG which would require either IU losing out or tOSU losing two of their last three so it isn't likely.
6-3/4-2 Minnesota, at ORE, at NU, vs UW:
Frankly, I think the illusion of Minnesota being a good team is going to come crashing down over these last three games. IMHO they are MUCH more likely to lose out than win out but if they did somehow win out to finish 9-3/7-2 they'd still need chaos (see Iowa above) to get into the B1GCG because that record with a two-score loss to Cal and blowout losses to Iowa and tOSU isn't anywhere near enough.