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The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 05, 2025, 04:39:06 PM

Title: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 05, 2025, 04:39:06 PM
Based on the rankings (assuming the highest ranked team wins each conference and the CG loser doesn't drop - except that I've assumed that if aTm goes 13-0 they aren't going to be ranked behind a 12-1 Indiana) the seeds would be:


So the matchups would be:
Second round:

Do I have this right?
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: ELA on November 05, 2025, 05:09:12 PM
Yeah, they posted it

(https://i.imgur.com/Q3mzVl0.png)
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 05, 2025, 08:33:55 PM
Yeah, they posted it
[img width=361.238 height=281]https://i.imgur.com/Q3mzVl0.png[/img]
Ok:
Only thing I changed is that, realistically, if the top-4 win out, the top two seeds will be the BIGCG and SECCG winners. 

So what does everyone think? First two out are the Longhorns and Sooners.
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 05, 2025, 08:49:01 PM
sounds good to a Husker fan
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 05, 2025, 09:15:21 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/h1mqoz0.jpeg)
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: ManHawk on November 06, 2025, 07:44:31 AM
Some thoughts

Agree a lot will change by the final poll.  It would be a crime if oregon had to play Ohio St 2 years in a row in the 2nd round.  I hope it works out that somehow the seeding avoids intra-conference matchups in the first 2 rounds.

I have a hunch that Oregon, USC, Iowa, and Wash are going to knock each other out by playing each other,  but if one of them can make an undefeated run to end the season,  they will be the Big Ten's 3rd team.

Michigan is more simple.  If they beat Ohio St, they will be the Big Ten's 4th team.  If they don't beat Ohio St,  they won't make it into the CFP.
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: bayareabadger on November 06, 2025, 07:53:45 AM
Excited for the Mid-SEC bloodbath.
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 06, 2025, 08:07:40 AM
Some thoughts

Agree a lot will change by the final poll.  It would be a crime if oregon had to play Ohio St 2 years in a row in the 2nd round.  I hope it works out that somehow the seeding avoids intra-conference matchups in the first 2 rounds.
manipulation and it's wrong
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: ManHawk on November 06, 2025, 08:22:54 AM
manipulation and it's wrong
Well,  I was kinda saying I hope it works out that way naturally without manipulation.

But if you want to argue if it should be manipulated,  the NCAA basketball tourney already does this.   Flips lower seeds to avoid teams from same conference playing each other early in the tourney. 

 I don't believe it would be big deal for the CFP to flip a couple of lower seeds to avoid 2 teams from the same conference playing each other in the first or 2nd round.
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 06, 2025, 08:30:14 AM
flippin one spot in 64 team seeding or just sending a team to a different region isn't as egregious as 12-teams

but, I expect the committee to manipulate the field to favor the SEC
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 06, 2025, 08:47:44 AM
Last year the SEC was just cannon fodder for the non-hillbilly teams. 
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 06, 2025, 08:48:51 AM
are you referring to the Hoosiers as hillbillys?
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 06, 2025, 08:54:40 AM

Texas was the only SEC team with a win over a non-hillbilly team, and it was a near loss against lowly Arizona State.



(https://legacymedia.sportsplatform.io/image/upload/v1735863675/lnqafntku64qe5ronhzu.jpg)
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: ManHawk on November 06, 2025, 10:19:01 AM
If you manipulate the bracket to avoid 2 teams from the same conference playing in first 2 rounds. 

Key is the top 4 teams can't change.  #5 to #8 can be flipped but they must stay in #5 to #8 range so that they still get a first round home game. #9 to #12 can be flipped but must stay in #9 to #12 range so that they play on road in first round.

1.  Ohio St
2.  Ind
3.  Texas A&M
4.  Bama
5.  BYU (changed from #7 in CFP rankings)
6.  TT (#8)
7.  Georgia (#5)
8.  Ole Miss (#6)
9.  Notre Dame (#10)
10.  Virginia (#11)
11.  Oregon (#9)
12.  Memphis

1st / 2nd round

12 Memphis @ 5 BYU / winner vs 4 Bama
11 Oregon @ 6 TT / winner vs 3 A&M
10 Virginia @ 7 Georgia / winner vs 2 Indiana
9 Notre Dame @ 8 Ole Miss / winner vs 1 Ohio St

I really like this bracket a lot better than the one that would follow straight seeding.  Maybe that's just me.
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 06, 2025, 10:33:09 AM
If you manipulate the bracket to avoid 2 teams from the same conference playing in first 2 rounds. 

Key is the top 4 teams can't change.  #5 to #8 can be flipped but they must stay in #5 to #8 range so that they still get a first round home game. #9 to #12 can be flipped but must stay in #9 to #12 range so that they play on road in first round.

1.  Ohio St
2.  Ind
3.  Texas A&M
4.  Bama
The projection that they released is an "as of today" version but the reality is that CCG's are going to be played so Ohio State and Indiana are not going to both end up undefeated.  

I think a better assumption (and this still assumes a lot) is that the B1GCG and SECCG winners will be the 1/2 seeds while the losers will be the 3/4 seeds.  Ie, Ohio State and Indiana are NOT going to be the top two seeds.  
Title: Re: Projected CFP Bracket based on week 11 CFP rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 06, 2025, 10:58:58 AM
why can't the top 4 teams be manipulated?