CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on November 04, 2025, 10:27:38 AM
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Teams with 1st Loss Week 10:
Georgia Tech
Navy
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 10:
Tulane
Vanderbilt
Miami (FL)
Cincinnati
Houston
UNLV
Teams with 1st Win Week 10:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)
Week 6: 25% (5 of 20)
Week 7: 26.7% (4 of 15)
Week 8: 45.5% (5 of 11)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Week 10: 33.3% (2 of 6)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
3: We lost our last possible ACC and American champs last week with Georgia Tech and Navy losing.
Our remaining possible undefeated teams are: Ohio State/Indiana, Texas A&M, and BYU.
There is only remaining possible game between undefeated teams in the regular season and it is Ohio State vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.
Week 10 Thoughts:
-The ACC had a bad week for its top two ranked teams. Miami now has two losses. Anyone else in the ACC I would probably say would be out of it now, but with the wins over Notre Dame and Florida, they might slide in as an at large under some circumstances if they win out. For the ACC title though, they now need to be tied with someone else with 2 losses and win the tie breaker and that is pretty unlikely (although not impossible). Meanwhile, Georgia Tech lost North Carolina State. This removes the last undefeated ACC team and Georgia Tech still has to play Georgia out of conference. Virginia is now the only team undefeated in conference play and there are currently 5 teams with a single conference loss (Georgia Tech, Pitt, Louisville, SMU, and Duke). The ACC can still get multiple teams in, but it does need its top teams to separate themselves down the stretch. A top seed is probably out now.
-The Big 12 had both Cincinnati and Houston lose, which leaves the conference with just BYU (undefeated) and Texas Tech with 1 or fewer losses. The two of them play this week. The Big 12's best chance at a high seed is to have BYU win out. On the other hand, Texas Tech is probably the only team beside BYU who might have a path to the playoff without winning the Big 12 Championship. If they win this game and lose a rematch vs. BYU (or maybe to someone else close), I could see them still getting in even with a 2nd loss. For the conference race itself, Texas Tech, BYU, and Cincinnati all control their destiny. BYU can afford to lose any one game and still be in the Big 12 Championship. Cincinnati and Texas Tech can't be sure they can lose one, but will be in if they win out (Cincinnati plays BYU in a few weeks). It is also quite possible we get a two loss team in the championship which could be one of these teams or of the existing other two loss teams.
-The ranked teams in the Big Ten all won. Michigan and USC in particular needed to to keep any playoff hopes alive. I should note that while Ohio State and Indiana look very strong, there are still 4 one conference loss teams below them in the standings (USC, Michigan, Oregon and Iowa) whom tie breakers might help if either the current top two stumble. Michigan is the only one of them who has a game left with Ohio State or Indiana, but after the past few years, Ohio State will breathe a bit easier if Michigan drops another before the Game. For a 3rd playoff spot, Oregon is obviously the most likely, but they play Iowa this week and that will not be a cakewalk.
-Texas stays in the playoff race holding off a late Vanderbilt rally. That gives Vanderbilt their 2nd conference loss which makes Atlanta much less likely. Oklahoma beat Tennessee which likely eliminates the Vols from any playoff chance, but keeps the Sooners in the hunt. Ole Miss stays with 1-loss looking for big things.
-Notre Dame beat Boston College and continues to move up the ranking. The one hiccup for this week was Miami losing. I think the Irish are fine with 2 losses (especially how Texas A&M is playing), but if you have a 2-loss Miami who beat a 2-loss Notre Dame close in the rankings at the end, it could potentially push the Irish back a bit. While I don't think it likely makes a difference, paradoxically, I think the Irish might actually be better if Miami lost one more even though it makes their loss look a little worse.
Group of 5 Playoff Race:
-The Mountain West saw UNLV drop its 2nd game, but the bigger deal was conference champ favorite Boise State losing to Fresno State. Boise State needed help for the playoff spot due to the big loss to South Florida earlier in the year, but now all the Mountain West attention pretty much is going to be on San Diego State. They still have one loss. They need to win out and get some help from the American. I think they would probably lose to any single loss team in the American, but might beat a two loss team (not South Florida though). We'll see how the committee treats them in the coming weeks.
-Everyone in the MAC has at least three losses so I don't think anything can help anyone there.
-From Conference USA, 2 loss Western Kentucky might get back in it if they won out including a win at LSU.
-The Sun Belt's one hope to me would be James Madison. They still have one loss. If you can get enough chaos elsewhere, there are scenarios to put them on top. I think they need San Diego State to lose one, the American champ to have at least three losses (maybe two if its the right team and James Madison finishes the year on fire).
-The American definitely has the best spot, but losses are starting to mount a bit. Navy took their 1st loss and Tulane (a favorite to win not too long ago) lost badly this week. I think Memphis, North Texas, Navy, and South Florida would extremely likely to take the spot with if they win out. A two loss American champ is going to take the spot in the most circumstances too (although that could get interesting). The best chance for others is a 3-loss or more American champ, which means those on the outside need to root for upsets within the conference now. That said, if James Madison and San Diego State both lose, I'd lean to a 3 loss American champ taking it too.
Week 11 Thoughts:
-We have one game between an undefeated and 1-loss team.
Undefeated BYU at 1-loss Texas Tech: These are the two favorites to win the Big 12. BYU can actually afford a loss and still make the Big 12 Championship. They can be a top seed in the playoff by winning out though. Texas Tech cannot be sure that they can make the conference championship without winning. A playoff birth with 2 regular season losses would be more unlikely than likely as well. Texas Tech is a 10.5 point favorite.
Winless UMass at Akron (Tuesday): UMass are a bit more than a 10 point underdog looking for their first win of the year.
Miami (OH) at Ohio (Tuesday): The two favorites to win the MAC square off.
UTSA at South Florida (Thursday): UTSA is a pretty big underdog, but they killed Tulane a week ago.
Tulane at 1-loss Memphis (Friday): Game looked a bit bigger a week ago, but Tulane is still the 4th most likely to win the American by betting odds and Memphis is right there with South Florida and North Texas toward the top. The American definitely wants ranked Memphis to win this Friday game as a 6.5 point favorite.
Undefeated Indiana at Penn State: Indiana is coming into Happy Valley as a 15.5 point favorite. I still have trouble seeing that and digesting how quickly things change.
1-loss Georgia at Mississippi State: Georgia a bit over a touchdown favorite. Keep winning and they are fine for the playoff regardless of SEC title hopes, but both are very alive right now. Lose one and they will still be OK for the playoff.
1-loss James Madison at Marshall: James Madison is almost a 2 touchdown favorite. They are the Sun Belt's one chance at the playoff. They need help, but can help themselves by winning convincingly.
Jacksonville State at UTEP: Jacksonville State is 4-0 in Conference USA play, but only a small favorite here.
Undefeated Texas A&M at Missouri: The Aggies are having a dream year so far as the last undefeated in the SEC and are 6.5 point road favorites. They could afford to lose this for playoff purposes, but for SEC purposes it would open up potential tie breakers. Regardless, the Aggies are looking for Atlanta and a top 4 bye in the playoff. For their part, Mizzou is not out of it yet. Win this and with 2 losses, they hold on to hope. Lose and they are almost certainly out of it.
1-loss Oregon at Iowa: This is a game I have personally had circled a few weeks. Oregon looks good for the playoff if they keep winning, but haven't completely lit the world on fire. Iowa lost to Iowa State and a close one vs. Indiana. They are not out of the playoff race with a win vs. the ducks and I think they stand a definite chance. Oregon is a 5.5 point favorite.
Syracuse at Miami (FL): If Miami is still to get in (without an ACC title), style points might matter.
Auburn at Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt is not out of playoff picture. They do have to win out now though and are 6.5 point favorites.
Wake Forest at 1-loss Virginia: Virginia is the lone undefeated in conference play with everything in front of them. Lose one and they join several teams with 1 conference loss and have to look at tie breakers. They are a bit under a touchdown favorite.
Cal at 1-loss Louisville: Louisville's only loss was a close one to Virginia. They probably need some help for the ACC title game, but already got the first few parts of it last week. Even if they don't make it, if they can finish with the 1 loss, they will probably find themselves on the inside of the playoff picture. Cal has had a couple close losses looking for bowl eligibility the last few weeks.
LSU at 1-loss Alabama: This game doesn't mean what it did in the SEC West days, but the SEC race would be altered at least some if Alabama losses their first conference game. LSU could well rally as we have seen elsewhere under an intern head coach (or do the opposite).
1-loss Navy at Notre Dame: The American's chances at the playoff would jump with a win even though it's a non-conference game for Navy. Notre Dame meanwhile needs to keep winning for the playoff spot.
1-loss San Diego State at Hawaii: San Diego State is the Mountain West's best chance at a playoff team. Going to Hawaii can be rough, but San Diego State is a 6.5 point favorite.
Winless Sam Houston at Oregon State: Oregon State was winless themselves a few weeks ago, but now have won 2 and are almost 20 point favorites here.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 0, American: 0, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 1, total: 4
Texas A&M
Indiana
Ohio State
Brigham Young
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 1, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 1, total: 13
Virginia
San Diego State
Alabama
Georgia
James Madison
Oregon
Louisville
North Texas
Mississippi
Texas Tech
Memphis
Georgia Tech
Navy
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, MAC:1, total: 2
Sam Houston
Massachusetts