CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: Mdot21 on October 05, 2025, 12:09:43 PM
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USC opens as a 1.5 point home favorite. Vegas thinks it's basically a pick 'em game- and Michigan would be the betting favorite if the game was in Ann Arbor or on a neutral site. O/U is 54.5 points.
USC is coming off the bye week after it's defense gave up over 500 yards to Illinois. Can USC stop the run and play physical B1G football? USC features one of the best WR's in the country in Makai Lemon and QB Jayden Maiava is playing great football and is one of the top QB's in the B1G. Michigan has not seen the type of passing attack yet that USC brings to the table, but USC also has not seen the type of defense or run game that Michigan brings to the table.
Sherrone Moore put the running training wheels back on Bryce Underwood vs Wisconsin. They called no designed runs or read options and Bryce didn't really scramble when he had open lanes. Moore needs to tell Underwood to cut it loose if he sees open run lanes and he needs to call run plays designed for Underwood and read options as well. Underwood could go for 100+ on the ground vs USC IF Sherrone Moore allows him to run the ball.
This is a huge game for both programs. USC has 5 game stretch after this where they go @Notre Dame, @Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, and then @Oregon. If they drop this one at home- have a tough time seeing them doing any better than 8-4 max. It's almost a must win game for them if Lincoln Riley wants any hope of making a playoff or B1G 'chip run. Can Lincoln Riley win a big game and can he coach a defense that isn't a sieve?
On the flip side for Michigan- can Sherrone Moore win a huge road game (other than Ohio State that is)? Is his true freshman QB ready for this moment? Will his WR's stop dropping the fucking ball? His overall road record is not great- but if they can pull off the minor upset and win and survive and continue to develop Bryce Underwood, their next 5 game stretch after this is home vs Washington, @Michigan State, home vs Purdue, @Northwestern, and @Maryland. They pull this off and go to 5-1 they'll have a great shot of building momentum and potentially heading into Ann Arbor 10-1 with a massive showdown vs Ohio State for all the marbles.
Biggest game thus far by far for both teams. USC and Lincoln Riley needs it more and it is at home- if it was anywhere else I'd pick Michigan, but because it's on the road and USC will be desperate and need it or they are done and Riley will be feeling the hot seat like no other- kind of has me leaning USC. One thing that has me holding out hope for Michigan though is USC is coming off a bye- and teams coming off byes usually slow to start and sloppy with rust to shake off- and the other thing of course is USC's defense- they haven't stopped anybody all season or really ever under Lincoln Riley.
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Michigan just faced one of the best front 7's it will see all year and managed to run more than anyone has.
Michigan will run all over USC and that Charmin soft "defense" out there.
The only concern, as always, is the travel. Shouldn't be too bad for M - much closer than PSU or MD or Rutgers, for sure.
Really wish the expansion a) didn't happen or b) went to the South.
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Michigan just faced one of the best front 7's it will see all year and managed to run more than anyone has.
Michigan will run all over USC and that Charmin soft "defense" out there.
The only concern, as always, is the travel. Shouldn't be too bad for M - much closer than PSU or MD or Rutgers, for sure.
Really wish the expansion a) didn't happen or b) went to the South.
that is true, while Wisconsin struggles on the back end right now- Wisconsin does have a really good defensive front. They have lot of guys on that DL that Michigan tried recruiting. Michigan won't see a defensive front as good as Wisconsin's the rest of the year until they have to play Ohio State in Ann Arbor at the end of the season. And they ran for almost 180 on Wisconsin without involving Underwood in the run game plan. Sherrone threw the bubble wrap and training wheels back on Underwood running the ball soon as he got back. As good as Michigan's run is with Haynes and Marshall- it goes to a whole other level when you involve Underwood and when defenses have to account for the QB run.
The travel is definitely a concern. Going cross country changing 3 different time zones sucks. Thankfully it's a 7:30ET / 4:30PT kick.
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this is wild to me...and I'd like to know what plays of 20+ yards, 40+, and 50+ are in 5 games vs 13 games last year.
https://twitter.com/ByAZuniga/status/1974863114412896735
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PFF stats on Michigan's WR's....
Donoven McCulley:
29 Targets
19 Catches
309 Yards (16.3 YPC)
3 TD's
0 Drops
13.5 Yards Average Depth of Target
Semaj Morgan:
24 Targets
16 Catches
187 Yards (11.7 YPC)
1 TD
5 Drops
3.6 Yards Average Depth of Target
Channing Goodwin:
18 Targets
7 Catches
112 Yards (16 YPC)
0 TD
4 Drops
13 Yards Average Depth of Target
Andrew Marsh:
6 Targets
5 Catches
110 Yards (22 YPC)
0 TD
0 Drops
13.7 Yards Average Depth of Target
This tells me two things: Semaj Morgan sucks and Channing Goodwin might actually be a decent WR if he could hang onto the damn football. Nine drops between these two- both of whom have been starters until the Wisconsin game when Andrew Marsh got the start over both. A 3.6 yard average depth of target and 5 drops is insanely pathetic on Semaj Morgan's part. 11.7 YPC is also pretty pedestrian as well.
McCulley is a startable scholarship B1G WR at this level. He's not an Ohio State 1st round freak- but he's more than good enough for this level. Andrew Marsh was a hot-shot high 4* top 100 overall player in the nation recruit out of Texas- and it shows why. He's shown more in one start than Semaj Morgan has in 3 years of playing time. McCulley and Marsh are basically the only WR's you have on the roster that are playable right now. And this is incredibly scary.
How in the fuck these coaches actually recruited Semaj Morgan out of high school in the Metro Detroit area but not Deion Burkes (Oklahoma), Nick Marsh (MSU), CJ Sadler (UNC), or Samson Gash (MSU)- is motherfucking beyond me. Beyond me. I know they tried recruiting Nick Marsh a little- but it wasn't balls to the wall sell your sell like they did for Bryce Underwood- and that was a GIANT fucking mistake because that kid is a future NFL draft pick WR. The other 3 guys- they didn't even recruit at all- but they recruited Semaj Morgan heavily- and that literally boggles my fucking mind. WR coach Ron Bellamy has to be fired in the off-season and replaced. He just flat out has to be. You cannot waste Bryce Underwood with more poor WR recruiting and development- have to go hire the best WR coach money can buy and spend in the portal on WR's like there is no limit.
Goodwin *might* still become a player- he is still only a RS Frosh and he's got decent size/speed, runs nice routes, and blocks his ass off- he just has to catch the god damn ball when it hits both hands. And he's not doing that- which is a major problem. If you can touch it- you can catch it. Period. No excuses. Otherwise you don't belong at this level- you belong in the MAC or D2/D3 ball.
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(https://media.tenor.com/S0tc393pT8kAAAAM/usc-cheerleaders.gif)
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this is also pretty crazy... to go from dead last to #57 and in the top half of FBS with a true freshman QB AND with all the drops from these WR's is pretty wild. shows just how god awful the QB play was last year.
https://twitter.com/isaiahhole/status/1974985860102979688
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I think this game is huge not just in the B1G but nationally.
Starting in the B1G:
Michigan has a loss but it was OOC so they are still undefeated in the league and if they win this they'll be heavy favorites all the way until the Buckeyes come to town Turkey-Day weekend. They just might win that again but even if they don't, 8-1 probably gets them into the B1GCG. With a loss here, they'd need no upsets of themselves and a big upset of Ohio State to get to the B1GCG.
The Trojans already have a league loss (Illinois) and they still have to play Oregon in Autzen so I see this as an absolute must-win for USC's B1GCG hopes.
Nationally this game might make the biggest difference to Notre Dame. A lot of people objected to the Irish being ranked at 0-2 and I'm certainly no ND fan but it made sense to me. You can say that they lost to the only two ranked teams that they played and that is true but in their defense they weren't bad losses:
- They lost by 3 on the road at night to the current #2 team
- They lost by 1 at home to the current #5 team.
The problem for ND is that they desperately need a quality win. As it stands today, they ONLY ranked teams on their schedule are the ones that they started 0-2 against. A USC win over Michigan would seriously help the Irish in the quality win department, assuming that the Irish beat the Trojans.
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I think this game is huge not just in the B1G but nationally.
Starting in the B1G:
Michigan has a loss but it was OOC so they are still undefeated in the league and if they win this they'll be heavy favorites all the way until the Buckeyes come to town Turkey-Day weekend. They just might win that again but even if they don't, 8-1 probably gets them into the B1GCG. With a loss here, they'd need no upsets of themselves and a big upset of Ohio State to get to the B1GCG.
The Trojans already have a league loss (Illinois) and they still have to play Oregon in Autzen so I see this as an absolute must-win for USC's B1GCG hopes.
Nationally this game might make the biggest difference to Notre Dame. A lot of people objected to the Irish being ranked at 0-2 and I'm certainly no ND fan but it made sense to me. You can say that they lost to the only two ranked teams that they played and that is true but in their defense they weren't bad losses:
- They lost by 3 on the road at night to the current #2 team
- They lost by 1 at home to the current #5 team.
The problem for ND is that they desperately need a quality win. As it stands today, they ONLY ranked teams on their schedule are the ones that they started 0-2 against. A USC win over Michigan would seriously help the Irish in the quality win department, assuming that the Irish beat the Trojans.
yeah, definitely a sneaky huge game with major implication for a game with one team only ranked 15th vs a currently unranked team.
this is also a huge game for Lincoln Riley. he's under immense pressure there with that $100 million contract and it's year 4 and he wasn't won anything there, went 7-6 last year and 8-5 the year before that, never been to the playoff and has had some truly great offenses but comically bad defenses that couldn't stop a JV high school team. And @Notre Dame, @Nebraska, and @Oregon are all going to be tricky games for him to win with that defense. If he drops this one at home to Michigan he's 4-2 on the season staring at another potential 5 loss season and in real danger of losing his job. They lose 5 games this year there's a chance he's fired and if he's not he'll be coaching for his job every game in 2026.
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I’ve been underwhelmed by Michigan’s pass rush when it comes to containing and pressuring slippery QBs like Maiava. Michigan’s DBs need to stick to USC’s ball catchers like peanut butter to the roof of your mouth because Maiava can extend plays. Quick TDs on coverage busts can negate Michigan’s run game.
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I’ve been underwhelmed by Michigan’s pass rush when it comes to containing and pressuring slippery QBs like Maiava. Michigan’s DBs need to stick to USC’s ball catchers like peanut butter to the roof of your mouth because Maiava can extend plays. Quick TDs on coverage busts can negate Michigan’s run game.
what are you going on about? Michigan's pass rush has faced exactly one QB all season that was mobile in John Mateer. They only sacked Mateer once- should've had him sacked at least 5 times and had him dead to rights more times than I can count and he Houdini'd out of that shit like the magician that he is. Every other QB they've faced they've gotten on the ground multiple times a game for sacks or TFL's.
Maiava is a really good QB with more mobility than you'd think- but he's not a run threat and he is NOWHERE near the twitched up explosive athlete that John Mateer is. Not even in the same universe.
This game for Michigan on defense will come down to how smart Wink Martindale will call his defense. If he can keep his fucking dick in his pants and not bring blitzes every god damn fucking snap- Michigan will be fine. Especially with Rod Moore back at free safety patrolling the skies. Rush 4 90% of the time, SIMULATE pressure, play zone coverage with the DB's mostly cover 3 and quarters- Michigan will win the game comfortably imo. If Wink goes back to thinking he's Dr. Blitz AKA Don Brown then USC will absolutely GASH Michigan in the pass game. They do not have the type of CB's that thrive playing man to man right now. Make USC drive the length of the field- don't give them any free big plays.
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(https://i.imgur.com/AV6dY9P.jpeg)
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he's not lying. that stadium will be half Michigan fans. still a little dumb of him to say out loud to the media.
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per Sherrone Moore, he's changing up the travel plans out west vs last year when they had to go out to Washington- this year for this game Michigan will be flying out earlier- on Thursday now to get used to the time zone change- and they will hold practice Friday at The Bolt- the state-of-the-art facility of the LA Chargers.
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Rhule is flyin to Maryland on Thursday after practice
instead of Friday morning like last season
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no surprise here. Link is a guard playing LT and Semaj Morgan is a 5'7, 175 pound midget with 4.6 speed who isn't exactly quick and who drops passes multiple times a game.
https://twitter.com/JamesYoder/status/1975225872954368095
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Illinois- the 64th ranked Total Offense put up 500+ yards and 34 points- and would've had almost 50 points on USC's defense without those two fumbles near the goal.
https://twitter.com/isaiahhole/status/1975345737870549427
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Illinois, luckily, has a kicker
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Illinois, luckily, has a kicker
so does Michigan. although he's missed a couple gimmes under 30 yards that he never misses. still pretty automatic from 40-55 yards.
punter? yeesh. that's another story.
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per Sherrone Moore, he's changing up the travel plans out west vs last year when they had to go out to Washington- this year for this game Michigan will be flying out earlier- on Thursday now to get used to the time zone change- and they will hold practice Friday at The Bolt- the state-of-the-art facility of the LA Chargers.
The Bolt...I wonder how they managed to make that happen? /s
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TE1 Marlin Klein said he feels like he's 100% healthy now.
this is also big news....Sherrone says starting LG Gio El-Hadi and TE2 Hogan Hansen are probable vs USC.
https://twitter.com/isaiahhole/status/1975226259912450188
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Neutral field, I would take Michigan, no questions asked. But the trip to the west coast continues to screw with teams
USC 30, Michigan 24
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Neutral field, I would take Michigan, no questions asked. But the trip to the west coast continues to screw with teams
USC 30, Michigan 24
i think the travel thing is kinda overblown and used an excuse/crutch. it only makes a real difference imo if you have a team from the west going to the east and having to play a game at noon ET and the visiting teams body clock is still 9am PT. or vice versa having a team like Michigan State go out to the West Coast and play a game at 8pm PT when their body clock is at 11pm ET.
Michigan is leaving earlier- Thursday this time- which will help them adjust better to the time zone change and recover from the jet lag- and the game is being played at 4:30pm PT- and these kids are used to playing multiple games a year at 7:30pm ET.
home field advantage is a real thing in college football- and that's why I'm slightly leaning to USC. if USC wins it'll be because they played a good game- not because Michigan had to travel.
only thing that makes me think Michigan might win- keep going back to Illinois putting up 500+ yards and they should've had 48 points in that one vs USC- and Illinois isn't exactly a world beater offense. Illinois ran for 170+ yards vs USC- and Illinois is the 99th ranked rushing offense in CFB. Michigan is a top 10 rush offense- both in YPC and total yards- and that's with them barely involving their absolute freakshow athlete QB and playing two top 5 rush defenses in CFB- OU and Wisconsin- and they got 150 on the ground vs OU and 175 on the ground vs Wisconsin- and they never even tried to use Underwood's legs in the run game in either of those games. They unleash his legs vs USC- there is a good chance they could rush for 250-300 imo.
Bryce Underwood continues to gain experience and improve week to week and athletically he is on a different level than pretty much every other QB in CFB. McCulley is actually a pretty good WR and Andrew Marsh the true freshman might be as well. OL/run game continues to improve every week and has been very consistent. Gio El-Hadi coming back at LG, TE1 Marlin Klein being 100%, and TE2 Hogan Hansen coming back would be a huge shot in the arm for this offense this game- the offense just goes up another notch with those 3 in the line-up and healthy.
defense + run game travels. my only real questions are will they actually use Underwood's legs in the game plan on designed runs and read option- and can Wink Martindale keep his dick in his fucking pants and not go blitz happy every fucking snap. I feel like Sherrone is either too mediocre of a coach to realize the obvious staring him right in the face or too pussy and afraid or both- and that he won't unleash Underwood's legs in the run game and that he won't slap training wheels on Wink Martindale.
Just use the kids legs and you're gonna get 250-300 on the ground- and DO NOT go blitz heavy vs USC because they will straight up gash you. Play zone coverage and patrol the skies- make them try to drive the length of the field and earn it- don't give up big chunk free plays because you sent the house and the QB hit the open man. Wink can't fucking help himself sometimes though. He doesn't realize sometimes that his pass rush is good enough to get home with 4. Jaishawn Barham is a demon off the edge and Derrick Moore is pretty damn good himself. Let them rush- let the LB's and DB's drop in coverage.
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i think the travel thing is kinda overblown and used an excuse/crutch. it only makes a real difference imo if you have a team from the west going to the east and having to play a game at noon ET and the visiting teams body clock is still 9am PT. or vice versa having a team like Michigan State go out to the West Coast and play a game at 8pm PT when their body clock is at 11pm ET.
Michigan is leaving earlier- Thursday this time- which will help them adjust better to the time zone change and recover from the jet lag- and the game is being played at 4:30pm PT- and these kids are used to playing multiple games a year at 7:30pm ET.
home field advantage is a real thing in college football- and that's why I'm slightly leaning to USC. if USC wins it'll be because they played a good game- not because Michigan had to travel.
We've done enough statistical analysis to say that HFA is definitely a real thing and travelling across multiple time zones makes it bigger.
I disagree with your unsupported assertion that it "only makes a real difference" based on time/travel distance. My argument, and the data bears it out, is that it makes the biggest difference in games like this that are relatively even matchups. I agree with @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) here in that I would take Michigan on a neutral field but USC is a legitimate challenge, close enough for HFA to push them over the top I think.
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Sherrone Moore says Andrew Marsh is a starter at WR opposite Donoven McCulley going forward and has earned that right. No more Semaj Morgan or Channing Goodwin starting. Thank god. Moore said WR3 battle is still open and ongoing. Unfortunately Semaj is still their only little slot/gadget guy so he's still going to get real action.
Moore also says true freshman WR Jamar Browder is getting closer to seeing the field and showing him stuff in practice and picking up the playbook now and will be in the mix going forward. Browder is a big bodied 6'5, 215 jump ball merchant from South Florida.
Per PFF, Michigan WR's/TE's have 14 drops on the season on passes they chart as catchable. That's a drop rate of 15.4%- which is highest in the nation- with Semaj Morgan (5) and Channing Goodwin (4) as the main culprits.
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wonder if we see Browder get on the field first time all-season here...
https://twitter.com/BluePrintJay/status/1975556017305100719
https://twitter.com/BriceMarich/status/1975232623162388908
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One of my assumptions built over years of watching the Badgers is that a solid running game tends to limit the impact/mistakes that go along with travel. Maybe it is because there are fewer connections that have to be timed correctly, or the offensive line is playing on the front foot instead of the back, but whatever it is, a team that wants to grind the ball down your throat seems to be able to take that on the road more easily than a team that wants to spread the ball around. Maybe that's right, maybe I'm full of all kinds of confirmation bias, but I figure Michigan will run right at USC and dare the Trojans to stop them. And I don't think the men of Troy will do any better than they did against the ancient Greeks. Maybe they will make Michigan grind out a tough, low-scoring victory, but I think this is Michigan's game to lose.
The Illinois experience is a good barometer (though USC was traveling). Illinois gifted USC a 14-point (at least) swing with two goal line fumbles. The Illini offense thoroughly outplayed USC's defense. And while I don't know that it's true, I suspect that Michigan has a better offense and I'm confident it has a better defense. So: Michigan for the win. Probably not a barn burner. That's not how Michigan's offense--or defense--plays.
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The Illinois experience is a good barometer (though USC was traveling). Illinois gifted USC a 14-point (at least) swing with two goal line fumbles. The Illini offense thoroughly outplayed USC's defense. And while I don't know that it's true, I suspect that Michigan has a better offense and I'm confident it has a better defense. So: Michigan for the win. Probably not a barn burner. That's not how Michigan's offense--or defense--plays.
Michigan definitely has a better rushing offense than Illinois. Illinois is the 99th ranked total rush offense- and that's with playing 6 games vs Michigan's 5. Illinois rush YPC average is 3.7 yards- which is amongst the lowest in P4, meanwhile Michigan's nearly 3 full yards more at nearly 6.4 YPC- which is top 5 in the FBS. And this is with Michigan facing two top 5 rush defenses in the country in Wisconsin and Oklahoma- and not using their freak athlete QB in the designed run game at all. Illinois hasn't really faced a front 7 that is rated highly in stopping the run- and their rush stats are still pathetic.
Overall offense because of the passing game? Illinois might be a tad better considering their QB is a 38 year old man with a fucking mortgage whose been in college for 20 fucking years- and Michigan's QB is a true freshman who just turned 18 like a month ago.
SP+ has Illinois offense rated 18th in the nation and Michigan offense rated 31st. SP+ has Michigan as the 7th rated defense in the nation, and Illinois as the 51st rated defense.
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Michigan definitely has a better rushing offense than Illinois. Illinois is the 99th ranked total rush offense- and that's with playing 6 games vs Michigan's 5. Illinois rush YPC average is 3.7 yards- which is amongst the lowest in P4, meanwhile Michigan's nearly 3 full yards more at nearly 6.4 YPC- which is top 5 in the FBS. And this is with Michigan facing two top 5 rush defenses in the country in Wisconsin and Oklahoma- and not using their freak athlete QB in the designed run game at all. Illinois hasn't really faced a front 7 that is rated highly in stopping the run- and their rush stats are still pathetic.
Overall offense because of the passing game? Illinois might be a tad better considering their QB is a 38 year old man with a fucking mortgage whose been in college for 20 fucking years- and Michigan's QB is a true freshman who just turned like 18 a month ago.
SP+ has Illinois offense rated 18th in the nation and Michigan offense rated 31st. SP+ has Michigan as the 7th rated defense in the nation, and Illinois as the 51st rated defense.
I agree. Total offense includes both. Illinois appears to have a significantly better passing game. Michigan has a better running game. Somewhere in the wash, one total offense is better than the other.
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I agree. Total offense includes both. Illinois appears to have a significantly better passing game. Michigan has a better running game. Somewhere in the wash, one total offense is better than the other.
yeah definitely.
call me crazy but I just think if this Illinois team that can't really run the ball that well ran for about 175 on USC's defense- Michigan has a good shot at 250+ on the ground- especially if they actually use Underwood's legs in the game plan.
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We've done enough statistical analysis to say that HFA is definitely a real thing and travelling across multiple time zones makes it bigger.
I disagree with your unsupported assertion that it "only makes a real difference" based on time/travel distance. My argument, and the data bears it out, is that it makes the biggest difference in games like this that are relatively even matchups. I agree with @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) here in that I would take Michigan on a neutral field but USC is a legitimate challenge, close enough for HFA to push them over the top I think.
Completely agree with this.
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Sherrone Moore says Andrew Marsh is a starter at WR opposite Donoven McCulley going forward and has earned that right. No more Semaj Morgan or Channing Goodwin starting. Thank god. Moore said WR3 battle is still open and ongoing. Unfortunately Semaj is still their only little slot/gadget guy so he's still going to get real action.
Moore also says true freshman WR Jamar Browder is getting closer to seeing the field and showing him stuff in practice and picking up the playbook now and will be in the mix going forward. Browder is a big bodied 6'5, 215 jump ball merchant from South Florida.
Per PFF, Michigan WR's/TE's have 14 drops on the season on passes they chart as catchable. That's a drop rate of 15.4%- which is highest in the nation- with Semaj Morgan (5) and Channing Goodwin (4) as the main culprits.
Wow, are brain cells starting to function up in Ann Arbor? It shouldn't have taken 5 weeks to see things that were clear after week 2 and some of the adjustments should have already been made at halftime or the middle of a game. Semaj Morgan is way overrated. He also shouldn't be returning punts. He has terrible hands and is going to cost them a turnover at some point. He also runs terrible routes and was easier to see watching the game live, that often he stopped on a route that he should have kept going and Underwood had to go up to him after the play and tell/teach him what should have happened with his route.
MCCulley and Marsh is a definite upgrade. McCulley is a decently average route runner, but he can go up and win balls. So give him a shot to do that more often. Marsh looks great to me. Looks like a young kid that should have been on the field since day one. Those two with Klein and please rollout Underwood and add more play fakes than freaking bubble screens and it will help the running game, which let Haynes do his thing. Also, don't throw the ball to Bredeson. Dude is a beast and a bruiser, but don't throw him the ball.
We're going to learn a lot about the Michigan secondary this week. My biggest concern is the secondary and teams that exploit the middle of the field.
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Wow, are brain cells starting to function up in Ann Arbor? It shouldn't have taken 5 weeks to see things that were clear after week 2 and some of the adjustments should have already been made at halftime or the middle of a game. Semaj Morgan is way overrated. He also shouldn't be returning punts. He has terrible hands and is going to cost them a turnover at some point. He also runs terrible routes and was easier to see watching the game live, that often he stopped on a route that he should have kept going and Underwood had to go up to him after the play and tell/teach him what should have happened with his route.
MCCulley and Marsh is a definite upgrade. McCulley is a decently average route runner, but he can go up and win balls. So give him a shot to do that more often. Marsh looks great to me. Looks like a young kid that should have been on the field since day one. Those two with Klein and please rollout Underwood and add more play fakes than freaking bubble screens and it will help the running game, which let Haynes do his thing. Also, don't throw the ball to Bredeson. Dude is a beast and a bruiser, but don't throw him the ball.
We're going to learn a lot about the Michigan secondary this week. My biggest concern is the secondary and teams that exploit the middle of the field.
100%. it's yet another indictment on Moore as a coach that it took him this long to do something about the WR problem. I know everyone here hates former OSU coach Zach Smith- but he had a great All-22 film breakdown of Semaj Morgan- and needless to say Semaj Morgan is AWFUL. He is an awful route runner and can't catch a cold.
McCulley and Underwood have been oh so close so many times all year- they have NOT been on the same page at all. Looks like they are starting to click- we'll see if they can continue to build on that chemistry. McCulley is sneaky underrated- good enough route runner and while not a burner faster than you think and he is a TERRIFIC 50-50 jump ball guy- his hands/ball skills are impressive- and of course it helps he's 6'5" with a nice vertical.
Marsh looks like a future stud to me as well. Can definitely see why he was so highly rated as a recruit- if you're a composite high 4* top 100 overall player in the nation like he was- you're a bluechip recruit. And he looks the part. It was just a matter of him picking up the playbook and getting his shot.
I'm 100% out on Semaj Morgan- he sucks. Still think there is some hope for Channing Goodwin- he's only a RS Frosh and he looks really good after the catch and he might be the most technical route runner they have and he blocks his ass off- but he HAS to start catching the football when it hits him in both hands. He's young and inexperienced though- so he has a tiny bit of an excuse. Semaj Morgan however is a SR I think and he's played plenty of snaps over the last 3 years- there is zero excuse for him to be this terrible.
I hear what you're saying about Bredeson- but he's technically a TE/H-Back/FB hybrid- and they line him up as a TE in 12 personnel a lot- he's too valuable as a run blocker to take off the field- and while you shouldn't be throwing him the ball- Bryce scanned the field and went through his progressions to his 4th read- which was Bredeson- and he's got to catch that ball if it hits him in both hands. Easier said than done- oh don't throw it to him- especially with Hogan Hansen being out and not having another legit TE you trust to run 12 personnel. If Hogan Hansen was healthy- he's the 4th read there and he probably catches the ball.
I'd change your line about the secondary and say we're going to learn a lot about Wink Martindale this game. Every time he tries his zone pressures he gets gashed to where the blitz was coming from. USC's OL is pretty iffy and it's missing I think 2 or 3 starters this game. There is no need to blitz so heavily here. Trust your front 4 to rush the passer and play zone coverage. If he does that- Michigan will be OK. If he doesn't- they will get gashed in the pass game.
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https://twitter.com/BriceMarich/status/1975228880836600179
https://twitter.com/wolverineswire/status/1975259846682239126
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PFF caveats apply, but yeah these EDGE rushers are REALLY good Wink. Stop blitzing so much, please.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G2qqDPEbIAEB0_F?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
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I'd change your line about the secondary and say we're going to learn a lot about Wink Martindale this game. Every time he tries his zone pressures he gets gashed to where the blitz was coming from. USC's OL is pretty iffy and it's missing I think 2 or 3 starters this game. There is no need to blitz so heavily here. Trust your front 4 to rush the passer and play zone coverage. If he does that- Michigan will be OK. If he doesn't- they will get gashed in the pass game.
Ya know.. reading this made me think my initial perspective was wrong and this is probably closer to being accurate.
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Ya know.. reading this made me think my initial perspective was wrong and this is probably closer to being accurate.
yup. Wink has sent pressures through 5 games more than any other DC in the P4. the guy is fucking addicted to sending pressure- and he's got three plus experienced EDGE rushers in Barham, Derrick Moore, and TJ Guy and he's got a defensive tackle that can rush the passer too in Rayshaun Benny.
there is just zero need for him to be blitz heavy this game. if he can't keep his dick in his pants here- Michigan probably loses the game.
Jayden Maiva against the blitz?
89.8 passing grade, 12 YPA, 87.5 Adjusted completion %, and only 1 sack taken. He's been sacked 3 times when not being blitzed. He's more susceptible to being sacked right now when he's not blitzed.
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USC is the second-worst pass defense that Michigan has seen at 111th in the country, ahead of only New Mexico at 126th.
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PFF caveats apply, but yeah these EDGE rushers are REALLY good Wink. Stop blitzing so much, please.
again that passes for Pffft,clickbait nowadays
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USC is the second-worst pass defense that Michigan has seen at 111th in the country, ahead of only New Mexico at 126th.
and their run defense ain't that good either. they do weirdly have a lot of sacks- but they haven't really played anyone with a competent OL.
seems like a typical Lincoln Riley defense. their best defense is that high flying explosive offense.
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Maybe the edge rushers grade well because winkie is sending extra guys all the time??
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yeah definitely.
call me crazy but I just think if this Illinois team that can't really run the ball that well ran for about 175 on USC's defense- Michigan has a good shot at 250+ on the ground- especially if they actually use Underwood's legs in the game plan.
Why the F would Moore get smart and use Underwood's legs?
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Why the F would Moore get smart and use Underwood's legs?
good point....
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Sherrone Moore is a doofus. but he's not wrong about it....
https://twitter.com/CSayf23/status/1975727476975296585
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Riley isn't wrong either