CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 23, 2025, 12:11:05 PM
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As I see it, this game is HUMONGOUS for the Hoosiers. Here are their eight remaining games sorted by my estimate of degree of difficulty from toughest to easiest:
- At #6 Oregon (I have this first because it is a West Coast road trip)
- At #3 Penn State
- At Iowa
- At Maryland
- vs Michigan State
- vs Wisconsin
- at Purdue
- vs UCLA
As a practical matter I believe that Indiana has no chance at the playoffs at 9-3. Bama missed the playoffs at 9-3 last year, I don't think the Hoosiers are getting in with three losses. For that matter, I'm not positive that they'd get in at 10-2. Miami missed last year at 10-2 but their losses weren't very good. The Hoosiers *MIGHT* get in at 10-2 if Oregon and Penn State both finished very highly ranked.
If the Hoosiers lose in Iowa City then they can't realistically make the playoffs without a road winning in either Autzen or Happy Valley.
On Iowa's side of things, they need wins. After years of comically bad offenses they exploded for 38 points in Piscataway last week but they gave up 28. Hopefully for the fighting Ferentz' the 28 points allowed to Rutgers was an aberration. It looks like it because they held ISU to 13 and their two cupcakes to a TD each but now they are about to face an Indiana team that just dropped 63 on the Illini.
Iowa's schedule is ROUGH. They get PSU and Oregon at home but I don't think that will be enough. They have road trips to Madison, LA, and Lincoln. Wisconsin may be down but that is still a rivalry game in Camp Randall. USC looks solid and that is a West Coast road trip and Nebraska looks solid as well. They should beat Minnesota and Michigan State at home but even those aren't gimmies.
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Indiana 35, Iowa 23
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If Indiana plays like they did against Illinois, Iowa has no chance.
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that's what I'm thinkin
Iowa and Illinois are similar - maybe
but, of course the games are always different
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that's what I'm thinkin
Iowa and Illinois are similar - maybe
but, of course the games are always different
Indiana isn't going to be at home at night. Going on the road into Kinnick is a whole different deal.
I think Indiana is pretty good, love that QB, but Illinois was insanely overrated as a top 10 team their rating was a joke from the word go.
Don't think it'll be a 63-10 outing. Thinking it'll be a close dog fight. Illinois should prevail by 7ish imo. Vegas seems right on the money here to me.
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Indiana isn't going to be at home at night. Going on the road into Kinnick is a whole different deal.
I think Indiana is pretty good, love that QB, but Illinois was insanely overrated as a top 10 team their rating was a joke from the word go.
Don't think it'll be a 63-10 outing. Thinking it'll be a close dog fight. Illinois should prevail by 7ish imo. Vegas seems right on the money here to me.
agreed on Kinnick
agreed on Illinois overrated - should be receiving votes like Iowa
vegas right more often than me but, .......... I'm thinking about 34-20
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agreed on Kinnick
agreed on Illinois overrated - should be receiving votes like Iowa
vegas right more often than me but, .......... I'm thinking about 34-20
if it was in Indiana, I'd agree. Kinnick is a dangerous fucking place to play, and Iowa always gets some voodoo magic go their way there. imo it's the biggest nightmare stadium to go into and play in the B1G. they have beaten so many good teams there at home over the years that on paper they had zero reason of ever beating.
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if it was in Indiana, I'd agree. Kinnick is a dangerous fucking place to play, and Iowa always gets some voodoo magic go their way there. imo it's the biggest nightmare stadium to go into and play in the B1G. they have beaten so many good teams there at home over the years that on paper they had zero reason of ever beating.
The game starts at 2:30 local time and its still September so it should still be light out by the end of game. The forecast for Sat is 84 degrees.
So not ideal conditions for an upset. Iowa usually has a better chance at a Kinnick upset if its cold and rainy and at night. Still the crowd will be loud, and a sellout, so you never know.
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Better teams than this Indiana one have gotten punked down at Mordor many times over the years.
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Hawks will need a couple special teams TDs to keep it close
their defense hasn't been scoring
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Better teams than this Indiana one have gotten punked down at Mordor many times over the years.
ha! Mordor is a great name for that place. i honestly think it's the biggest son of a bitch place to play for a visiting team in the entire B1G. like Hawk said IU's saving grace is it's afternoon game and decent weather. night game with bad weather is basically a death sentence for the visiting team.
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Ferentz is the master at playing defense and special teams and limiting mistakes on offense to frustrate opposing good/great teams that are used to running up & down the field and putting points on the board.
Mordor!
it'll be interesting to see how the great coach Cigerette handles it.
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(https://i.imgur.com/Yj6PSc7.png)
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Rutgers passed for 330 yards on Iowa.
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I was going to mention that the Iowa secondary is not up to snuff with their past greatness at this time.
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Lost in the offensive explosion, is that the Hoosier DL absolutely devoured Bert's OL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x-Nleyi1VA
Best unit of all is their special teams. :o
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It will be a difficult Saturday for Iowa football. Fortunately, the Indiana @ Iowa game is on the Peacock Network. No one has to, and no one will, see it.
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I was going to mention that the Iowa secondary is not up to snuff with their past greatness at this time.
I thought about mentioning that too. Ever since Cooper DeJean left for the NFL after the 2023 season, Iowa's DB's have not been performing at their usual elite level.
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I thought about mentioning that too. Ever since Cooper DeJean left for the NFL after the 2023 season, Iowa's DB's have not been performing at their usual elite level.
(https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=50928.msg730289#msg730289)
I was going to mention that the Iowa secondary is not up to snuff with their past greatness at this time.
(https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=50928.msg730289#msg730289)I agree with both comments that the Iowa secondary has not been at the elite level they had been in 2023 and prior years, however, despite giving up 330 yards passing to Rutgers, I saw Kaliakmanis throwing elite passes into extremely close coverage, and starting late in the 2nd quarter, Iowa started to slow the passing game down until Iowa captured that late interception. My assessment is that despite giving up all that yardage, by the second half the Iowa secondary was becoming an elite unit. Iowa gave up only one score in the second half.
Rutgers may be the most precise passing team in the Big Ten, but Indiana’s aerial attack is arguably more explosive—stretching defenses vertically and punishing hesitation. What makes this matchup especially daunting for Iowa is that Indiana doesn’t just throw the ball well — they run it with equal or more alarming authority.
Phil Parker’s defense is elite, no question. If anyone can scheme a way to slow down Indiana’s rhythm, it’s him. But defensive brilliance has limits when the offense it supports can’t sustain drives or flip field position. We’ve seen this before — Ohio State last year comes to mind. Iowa’s defense held firm early, but the burden of being the only functioning unit eventually cracked the foundation. When one of the three sub-teams (offense, defense, special teams) is carrying the others, its solo excellence becomes unsustainable.
Unless Iowa finds a way to consistently move the ball against Indiana’s defense—which is fast, physical, and disciplined, this game risks becoming another slow unraveling. The margin for error is razor-thin, and Indiana’s balance on offense means Iowa can’t afford to be reactive. They’ll need to dictate tempo, not just survive it.
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I was really impressed as well with Rutgers QB Kaliakmanis and that Rutgers tall WR that gave Iowa's defense fits the whole first half. The Rutgers QB threw some of the very best passes I have seen recently. Very precise and accurate.
I don't know if Kaliakmanis just had a particularly good first half against Iowa, but if he can do that every week, Rutgers is going to give Big Ten defenses fits all year long.
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Much better QB now than he was with the Goophs.
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Much better QB now than he was with the Goophs.
Yes, that's one reason why I am curious if Kaliakmanis can maintain that level of precision every week. Another reason is Big Ten QB's tend to get beat up over time, which can also have an effect on your throwing. But if Kaliakmanis can stay healthy, I think Rutgers might surprise some people.
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Rutgers may be the most precise passing team in the Big Ten
didn't think I'd EVER hear or read this
I wasn't watching closely in the first half but did enjoy the 2nd half of the Rutgers/Iowa game
I don't remember being overly impressed with the passing game
I was surprised Rutgers was moving the ball and putting up points
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didn't think I'd EVER hear or read this
I wasn't watching closely in the first half but did enjoy the 2nd half of the Rutgers/Iowa game
I don't remember being overly impressed with the passing game
I was surprised Rutgers was moving the ball and putting up points
Rutgers has some really tall WR's. Ian Strong, 6'3" and KJ Duff, 6'6" both had good games against Iowa. I think Ian Strong is definitely headed to the NFL.
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This may sound weird but I see a very real possibility of the wheels coming off for Iowa, not just in this game but in this season.
A big part of it is schedule. They get their three best opponents at home:
- #3 Penn State on 10/18
- #6 Oregon on 11/8
- #11 Indiana on Saturday.
That creates possibilities for upsets but it also creates the very real possibility that HFA is effectively "wasted" against those teams simply because Iowa isn't good enough to beat them even in Kinnick.
If the Hawkeyes lose those three then their absolute ceiling is 8-4/6-3 but that assumes that they are perfect in their other five games but none of those look like gimmies to me and some look VERY difficult. Here are Iowa's eight remaining games sorted by my estimate of degree of difficulty from toughest to easiest:
- vs #3 Penn State - Win this and all below gets to 11-1/9-0
- vs #6 Oregon - Win this and all below gets to 10-2/8-1
- vs #11 Indiana - Win this and all below gets to 9-3/7-2
- at #21 USC - Win this and all below gets to 8-4/6-3
- at Nebraska - Win this and all below gets to 7-5/5-4
- vs Minnesota - Win this and all below gets to 6-6/4-5
- at Wisconsin - Win this and all below gets to 5-7/3-6
- vs Michigan State - Win this and get to 4-8/2-7
Right now I wouldn't pick Iowa in any of the top five on that list. They might win one or two but they also might lose one or two of the games below that.
The weird thing here is that Iowa doesn't have any extremely difficult games (ie, at PSU/Ore/tOSU) nor any extremely easy games (ie vs NU, vs UCLA) so the difference between 4-8 and 9-3 is pretty thin. I see practically their entire schedule as games that could realistically go either way.
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I thought about mentioning that too. Ever since Cooper DeJean left for the NFL after the 2023 season, Iowa's DB's have not been performing at their usual elite level.
Their special teams improved, though. The return man that left had a knack for forgetting that he can't run back a fairly caught punt.
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This may sound weird but I see a very real possibility of the wheels coming off for Iowa, not just in this game
....
The weird thing here is that Iowa doesn't have any extremely difficult games (ie, at PSU/Ore/tOSU) nor any extremely easy games (ie vs NU, vs UCLA) so the difference between 4-8 and 9-3 is pretty thin. I see practically their entire schedule as games that could realistically go either way.
I would normally say that Iowa typically has a tendency to win most of its close games, but the Iowa defense just is not as trustworthy in the 4Q lately, although the defense played great in the 4Q against Rutgers.
On the other hand, there is a new dimension to Iowa's offense that has not been there in decades, a running QB. So maybe the Iowa offense can bail out the Iowa defense every now and then.
End result: Iowa will probably finish 8-4 again, which means they will have to upset somebody.
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This may sound weird but I see a very real possibility of the wheels coming off for Iowa, not just in this game but in this season.
A big part of it is schedule. They get their three best opponents at home:
- #3 Penn State on 10/18
- #6 Oregon on 11/8
- #11 Indiana on Saturday.
That creates possibilities for upsets but it also creates the very real possibility that HFA is effectively "wasted" against those teams simply because Iowa isn't good enough to beat them even in Kinnick.
If the Hawkeyes lose those three then their absolute ceiling is 8-4/6-3 but that assumes that they are perfect in their other five games but none of those look like gimmies to me and some look VERY difficult. Here are Iowa's eight remaining games sorted by my estimate of degree of difficulty from toughest to easiest:
- vs #3 Penn State - Win this and all below gets to 11-1/9-0
- vs #6 Oregon - Win this and all below gets to 10-2/8-1
- vs #11 Indiana - Win this and all below gets to 9-3/7-2
- at #21 USC - Win this and all below gets to 8-4/6-3
- at Nebraska - Win this and all below gets to 7-5/5-4
- vs Minnesota - Win this and all below gets to 6-6/4-5
- at Wisconsin - Win this and all below gets to 5-7/3-6
- vs Michigan State - Win this and get to 4-8/2-7
Right now I wouldn't pick Iowa in any of the top five on that list. They might win one or two but they also might lose one or two of the games below that.
The weird thing here is that Iowa doesn't have any extremely difficult games (ie, at PSU/Ore/tOSU) nor any extremely easy games (ie vs NU, vs UCLA) so the difference between 4-8 and 9-3 is pretty thin. I see practically their entire schedule as games that could realistically go either way.
The tl;dr = copy pasta from every other year: Somewhere between 9-3 and 4-8, but usually 7-8 wins.
Looks more like a 6-7 win landing spot this year, with the lower end of the total range looking more probable than the upper end.
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End result: Iowa will probably finish 8-4 again, which means they will have to upset somebody.
Always count on an upset in Lincoln. By 3 points
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The tl;dr = copy pasta from every other year: Somewhere between 9-3 and 4-8, but usually 7-8 wins.
Looks more like a 6-7 win landing spot this year, with the lower end of the total range looking more probable than the upper end.
It isn't just an every year thing. I am referring to this schedule and specifically these six games:
- VS Indiana
- VS Penn State
- VS Oregon
- AT USC
- AT Nebraska
- AT Wisconsin
If you flipped the H/A I'd be very confident that Iowa would go 3-3 because I don't think they'd have much of a chance in Bloomington, Happy Valley, or Eugene and I would expect them to win home games against USC, UNL, and UW. However, with the H/A as it is, I see these as six games that could all realistically go either way. There is a lot of upside potential because 6-0 isn't a ridiculous pipe dream but there is a lot of downside risk because 0-6 isn't an unrealistic nightmare.
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Except it largely is an every year thing.
There's three basic components a typical Iowa Football Season:
B1G West + Iowa State = Little-to-no HFA.
Solid teams = HFA, with the further they travel, the less likely they win.
Elite teams = A loss, occasionally pulling one out at home.
So in my estimation, HFA advantage comes into play...
- VS Indiana - Somewhat. If they're as good as advertised, not very much.
- VS Penn State - Little-to-none
- VS Oregon - Little-to-none
- AT USC - A LOT! Ferentz is 0'fer West of Lincoln in the regular season.
- AT Nebraska - Little-to-none
- AT Wisconsin - Little-to-none
Ultimately, how good they are (I don't think all that good) will determine the outcomes of Indiana, Nebraska, and Wisconsin; not where the game is played.
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(https://i.imgur.com/IkGDNAX.png)
Huskers 3-4 in Iowa City /// 0 fer 6 in Lincoln
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As I see it, this game is HUMONGOUS for the Hoosiers. Here are their eight remaining games sorted by my estimate of degree of difficulty from toughest to easiest:
- At #6 Oregon (I have this first because it is a West Coast road trip)
- At #3 Penn State
- At Iowa
- At Maryland
- vs Michigan State
- vs Wisconsin
- at Purdue
- vs UCLA
As a practical matter I believe that Indiana has no chance at the playoffs at 9-3. Bama missed the playoffs at 9-3 last year, I don't think the Hoosiers are getting in with three losses. For that matter, I'm not positive that they'd get in at 10-2. Miami missed last year at 10-2 but their losses weren't very good. The Hoosiers *MIGHT* get in at 10-2 if Oregon and Penn State both finished very highly ranked.
If the Hoosiers lose in Iowa City then they can't realistically make the playoffs without a road winning in either Autzen or Happy Valley.
Yes if Indiana beats Iowa as expected it sets up an intesting round robin series between Indiana, Oregon and Penn St.
This is so much better than last year when none of those 3 played each other in the regular season. Although Oregon and Indiana dont need to play Ohio St this year, so its not perfect this year either.