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The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 09, 2025, 03:34:57 PM
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I can share more of the data behind this but what I did is I compared the Home and Away records of the 11 Big11Ten teams (membership from when PSU joined until UNL joined) against each other only. I looked at 1993-2023. I started with 1993 because that was Penn State's first year in the league and stopped with 2023 because Stassen hasn't updated to include 2024 yet. Here is the summary:
(https://i.imgur.com/OddrCyg.png)
So I guess those Pink Visitor locker rooms really do work, eh?
Most of this makes sense to me but there are some outliers that, for now, I've just chalked up to randomness. If you look at the five teams with the least HFA, two of them are two of the worst three overall (#10 IL and #9 MN) and another two are two of the best three overall (#1 tOSU and #3 UW). That makes sense. Illinois and Minnesota are usually bad enough that they are going to lose most of their games regardless of location. Conversely, Ohio State and Wisconsin are usually good enough that they are going to win most of their games regardless of location.
On the other end of the spectrum, four of the six teams with the biggest HFA are among the "middle five" overall (#5 IA, #4 PSU, #6 MSU, #8 PU).
The outliers and my theories on why they are:
As the #2 team in the league, Michigan shouldn't have that much HFA. I think they do because they didn't get to be a distant #2 (much closer to UW than tOSU) by being consistently a distant #2. Instead they got there by being a REALLY close #2 for part of the time and well below #2 the other part. My theory is that they got a lot of HFA help when they were well below #2 and more in the middle of the league where HFA matters the most.
As the worst team in the league, Indiana shouldn't have much HFA at all. I really can't explain why theirs is second highest. Maybe part of it, at least as compared to IL and NU is that I think IU has been more consistent than those teams. Without deeply researching it, it 'feels like' NU and IL have been a bit more Jekyll and Hyde with league championship highs and just flat awful most of the rest of the time whereas IU has been consistently a bit better than IL's and NU's lows but without the top-end. I don't know.
As the #7 team in the league, Northwester aught to have pretty strong HFA but theirs is even les than Ohio State's. This is probably because of the Jekyll and Hyde nature of their performance (see previous paragraph).
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To test my theories I also looked at the SEC for a comparison so @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) , @rolltidefan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=12) , other SEC fans, you might be interested in this. Here are the SEC results:
(https://i.imgur.com/PD7Ks1O.png)
For the SEC I used the 12 teams that made up the league from the 1992 football season up until the recent expansions. Looks similar but the SEC is a bit flukier because they've had divisions longer so the non-protected non-divisional match-ups were only played about 8-10 times in the 32 seasons from 1992-2023. That small sample size gets even smaller when you cut it in half for H/A. Also, the SEC has a LOT more neutral site games such as the WLOCP which throw things off a bit.
In each league the H% was almost exactly 0.100 above the A%. That is interesting.
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The Bobs did a similar analysis years ago using point spread in conference games and he noted the SEC had the smallest HFA by that metric of any major conference, but a fair bit.
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The Bobs did a similar analysis years ago using point spread in conference games and he noted the SEC had the smallest HFA by that metric of any major conference, but a fair bit.
FWIW:
That is way more data than I wanted to mess around with. I just used straight up W/L so it makes no difference if a team won by the skin of their teeth or blew their opponent out, just W's and L's.
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As the #7 team in the league, Northwester aught to have pretty strong HFA but theirs is even les than Ohio State's. This is probably because of the Jekyll and Hyde nature of their performance (see previous paragraph).
You all know I don't like narrative-building... Sometimes the data is just noisy.
But I wonder if someone like Northwestern falls for some pretty simple reasons:
- Small fan base
- Apathetic fan base
- Location in a major metro where a lot of competing conference school alumni live
We all joke about how the stands at Northwestern are full of opposing fans most of their "home" games. But maybe there's something to it?
On the opposite end, Iowa is nearly the most westerly of the Big11Ten teams, and is also nowhere near any large metro area. It's drivable from Chicago/Champaign/Madison/Minneapolis, but it's uncomfortable travel from literally anyone else in the conference. It's also Iowa, so it's not like there's a tremendous metro area attracting alumni from competing conference schools.
Maybe that's an explanation for Iowa's outsized HFA? Nobody from other fan bases ever go there?
I don't know if any of this actually has an effect, or how strong the effect would be, but I can see it being somewhat plausible...
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I've got to think there's another aspect to this kind of thing. I recall UGA under Richt having a stellar road record. Doesn't your HFA seem weakened by your above-expected performance on the road?
OSU has a ceiling on HFA because look at it, their road win% is above anyone's home win%. Shit. If their HFA was any higher, they'd have won a dozen NCs, lol. So somewhere in the ingredients, there's got to be an aspect we're failing to incorporate. I haven't ever spent much time on it, so idk.
Also,
.731 Florida
.732 Alabama
God damn, Spurrier was a dude!!!
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You all know I don't like narrative-building... Sometimes the data is just noisy.
But I wonder if someone like Northwestern falls for some pretty simple reasons:
- Small fan base
- Apathetic fan base
- Location in a major metro where a lot of competing conference school alumni live
We all joke about how the stands at Northwestern are full of opposing fans most of their "home" games. But maybe there's something to it?
On the opposite end, Iowa is nearly the most westerly of the Big11Ten teams, and is also nowhere near any large metro area. It's drivable from Chicago/Champaign/Madison/Minneapolis, but it's uncomfortable travel from literally anyone else in the conference. It's also Iowa, so it's not like there's a tremendous metro area attracting alumni from competing conference schools.
Maybe that's an explanation for Iowa's outsized HFA? Nobody from other fan bases ever go there?
I don't know if any of this actually has an effect, or how strong the effect would be, but I can see it being somewhat plausible...
My best guess is that it is the culmination of a lot of factors with some randomness thrown in to make it confusing, as you say sometimes the data is just noisy.
For Northwestern all of those things are true and I'll add that the small size of Ryan Field means it wouldn't be very loud/intimidating even if it was packed full of mostly NU fans.
That said, I still think that NU's typical 'strength' plays a role as well. They had some really good years where they competed for and even won league titles. In those years, HFA probably didn't matter in any but a game or two against other contenders. They also had a lot of complete crap years where they struggled to get a couple wins and in those years HFA probably didn't matter in any but a game or two against the other bottom-feeders.
For Iowa's part, they seem more consistently mediocre to me. In the timeframe covered (1993-2023) they only had a couple truly awful teams (late 90s) and not all that many really good teams either. They've mostly been between about 7-5 and 9-3 which is the kind of team that plays a LOT of games that could realistically go either way.
I do think your other factors for Iowa contribute. We drove it, but it is a LONG freaking trip. The metro also matters. I could see taking my family to Chicago for a weekend including an Ohio State game at Northwestern. I'd take them to see the U505 at the Museum of Science and Industry and to Navy Pier and the top of the Sears Tower (I know it isn't called that anymore but it will always be that to me). Iowa, almost certainly not. It is farther and there is a LOT less to hold their interest.
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I've got to think there's another aspect to this kind of thing. I recall UGA under Richt having a stellar road record. Doesn't your HFA seem weakened by your above-expected performance on the road?
You are right about Richt having a stellar road record. I noticed when I was putting this together, check this out:
Home winning % in games among the 1992 SEC teams:
- .785 Florida
- .768 Bama
- .717 Georgia
Road winning % in games among the 1992 SEC teams:
- .731 Georgia
- .697 Bama
- .676 Florida
So Bama was neither the toughest place to play (Swamp) nor the toughest team to host (UGA) but they were the best overall team because they were second in both of those things.
My guess is that a big part of Georgia having a negative HFA is the fact that they play a big rivalry game at a neutral site (your Gators obviously). Granted that wouldn't have mattered much in a lot of years because for large chunks of the 32 years from 1992-2023 Florida was substantially superior and then for other chunks Georgia was substantially superior. The other weakness of that explanation is that obviously Florida also played in that game and they have a pretty strong HFA of .109.
OSU has a ceiling on HFA because look at it, their road win% is above anyone's home win%. Shit. If their HFA was any higher, they'd have won a dozen NCs, lol. So somewhere in the ingredients, there's got to be an aspect we're failing to incorporate. I haven't ever spent much time on it, so idk.
This is definitely true and the converse is also true. Ie, in the SEC Vanderbilt's Home win% was lower than any of the other teams' road win% so it just couldn't get much worse in road games for Vandy just like it couldn't get much better in home games for tOSU. I think we are incorporating that with the theory that teams that are really good or really bad tend to have minimal HFA. Ohio State's is 0.083 and Vandy's is 0.005. Similarly, Bama's is 0.070 and Illinois' is -0.018.
This is the point that @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) and I have been making for a while. HFA isn't just about who you play where but also who you are. UCLA looks to be one of the worst teams in the B1G. For them an advantageous schedule is one where they get the other bottom feeders at home because, realistically, they are extremely unlikely to knock off tOSU/PSU/Oregon no matter where the game is played. The Bruins are better off to lose in Columbus, State College, and Eugene but then get Northwestern, Maryland, and Purdue at home. Conversely, Ohio State looks to be one of the best teams in the B1G so for them an advantageous schedule is one where they get the other contenders at home because they shouldn't and realistically probably will not lose to UCLA, NU, UMD, or PU even on the road. The Buckeyes are better off to win (even if one or two are close) in Westwood, Evanston, College Park, and West Lafayette but then get PSU, Oregon, Illinois, and Michigan at home.
Also,
.731 Florida
.732 Alabama
God damn, Spurrier was a dude!!!
Yeah, you got to enjoy watching one of the all-time best as the coach of your school. I've always loved the story that Spurrier's first game as HC at Florida was on September 8, 1990. The unranked Gators demolished the unranked OkSU Cowboys 50-7. It was the ONLY game in which Spurrier's Gators were unranked. The Gators were then ranked in 209 consecutive polls from 1990-2002 which encompasses the rest of Spurrier's tenure and slightly beyond. That streak of 209 consecutive AP Poll appearances is the 4th longest such streak of all-time trailing only Nebraska's 1981-2002 streak, Bama's current streak, and FSU's 1989-2001 streak.
What makes Spurrier's accomplishments more impressive to me is that Florida was very much NOT an established power when he arrived. Florida had only appeared in 196 of the 670 AP Polls from 1936-1989 (29.3%) and they had only finished ranked 10 times. In Spurrier's 12 years as HC in Gainesville the Gators had more AP Poll appearances, more final AP Poll rankings, and more NC's than they had in their entire history before he arrived.
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My general thinking on HFA is that it obviously matters but has diminishing returns as the base or "neutral field" point spread expands. I'd categorize it as follows:
- Base spread <3.5: HFA is HUMONGOUS because it literally determines the favorite.
- Base spread 3.5 - 10.5: HFA is still a big deal but not nearly as big because the better team is favored either way. However, the game spread is a TD or less if the favorite is on the road which means that it wouldn't take much for an upset to occur. Ie, if Ohio State is favored by 10.5 on a neutral field then they are expected to win by a TD on the road but a TD is one play so one pick-6 or one muffed punt or one untimely fumble could swing it.
- Base spread 10.5 - 17.5: HFA is less likely to determine the outcome but still somewhat important because a 7 point underdog (10.5 neutral, playing at home) is MUCH more likely to spring an upset than a 14 point underdog (10.5 neutral, playing on the road) and the same is true for 14-21.
- Base spread >17.5: HFA is largely although not entirely irrelevant. The better team is favored by at least two TD's at home and at least three TD's on the road. There is a slightly better chance of a 14 point favorite (17.5 neutral, playing on the road) getting upset than a 21 point favorite but either way the chance is minimal.
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The other weakness of that explanation is that obviously Florida also played in that game and they have a pretty strong HFA of .109. This is definitely true and the converse is also true. Ie, in the SEC Vanderbilt's Home win% was lower than any of the other teams' road win% so it just couldn't get much worse in road games for Vandy just like it couldn't get much better in home games for tOSU. I think we are incorporating that with the theory that teams that are really good or really bad tend to have minimal HFA. Ohio State's is 0.083 and Vandy's is 0.005. Similarly, Bama's is 0.070 and Illinois' is -0.018.
Yeah... Imagine that you break any 12-team conference into 3 tiers.
When playing another team within your own tier, HFA is significant. You're closely matched enough that playing at home or away makes a meaningful difference. I.e. if you're projected to win 50% of these games on a neutral field, that might be 60% at home and 40% on the road (20% swing).
When playing any team one tier above or below you, HFA is a factor but it's minimal. These are teams that you should either beat or lose to consistently, but HFA can make it a little bit more likely to have a positive or negative upset. I.e. if you're projected to win 15% of games against a team a tier above you, but that number becomes 20% at home and 10% on the road (10% swing).
When playing any team two tiers above or below you, HFA really isn't a factor. You're maybe going to win that game 1 out of 20 times (5%). At home that might be 1 out of 15 (6.7%) and on the road 1 out of 30 (3.33%). So you really only have a very minimal swing in those games home vs away.
So if you break down the tiers:
- Top tier: 3/11 (27%) of their games (since they can only play the three, not four, other teams in their tier) have a meaningful HFA. 4/11 (36%) of their games are going to have minimal but still relevant HFA. And 4/11 (36%) of their games will have almost zero HFA effect.
- Bottom tier: Same as top tier, just the opposite direciton.
- Middle tier: 3/11 (27%) of their games have a meaningful HFA, and 8/11 (73%) of their games will have minimal but still relevant HFA. They have zero games with almost zero HFA effect.
So as a result, HFA will most affect the middle tier teams, and those are the ones that logically should have the largest HFA effect.
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At least... That's the theory. And for the Big11Ten, it *kinda* holds up. Teams 4, 5, and 6 in win percentage are three of the top 4 in HFA effect. But then you have outliers like Indiana that's way higher than they should be, Michigan which is higher than they should be, Northwestern which is lower than they should be...
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You also want to take into account the layout of the home stadium itself.
Iowa's Kinnick Stadium is well known for having tight areas between the sidelines and the stands, where the fans are extremely close to the field. This helps crowd noise affect the play on the field a little more, and sometimes Iowa fans can even affect the visiting team while they are standing on the sideline, close to those annoying fans.
On the other hand, I have had people tell me how surprisely quiet 100,000 fans can sound in some of the Big Ten's bigger stadiums.
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You also want to take into account the layout of the home stadium itself.
Iowa's Kinnick Stadium is well known for having tight areas between the sidelines and the stands, where the fans are extremely close to the field. This helps crowd noise affect the play on the field a little more, and sometimes Iowa fans can even affect the visiting team while they are standing on the sideline, close to those annoying fans.
On the other hand, I have had people tell me how surprisely quiet 100,000 fans can sound in some of the Big Ten's bigger stadiums.
Definitely a factor. I thought Kinnick was pretty loud when I was there, but they were also hosting #1 in a top-15 matchup (#1 Ohio State at #13 Iowa, 9/30/2006) at night with Gameday on location (Corso picked Iowa) and all stadiums are louder for games like that than they are for cupcake games.
I've never been but Autzen is said to be really loud.
I haven't been since the remodel but before that, Michigan was shockingly quiet when considering it is the largest in the country. We called it the quietest 100,000 people you'll ever meet.
How close the stands are to the field is a factor as you pointed out but I think a bigger factor is how steep the seating is and whether or not there is a second deck. Michigan was quiet mostly due to architecture. It is huge but all on one deck and not particularly steep so the sound escapes out the top. Smaller stadiums with upper decks hold a lot more sound in.
FWIW, IMHO, Ohio State is roughly middling in this category. The first deck isn't particularly steep but there is a second deck around most of it. One thing that might make Ohio Stadium seem quiet, I hope this doesn't sound overly-arrogant but it is just reality, is that the concept of a 'big game' is just different for Ohio State fans than it is for most fans. I think at most stadiums any ranked vs ranked game is considered really big. At Ohio State I don't think you hit that same level of excitement until it is at least a top-10 game simply because Ohio State has played so many big games. Using Gameday as a reference:
- 26 Ohio State has hosted GameDay more than any other location. Bama is second with 19.
- 67 Ohio State has the most GameDay appearances, Bama is second with 60.
- 47, Ohio State has the most GameDay wins 47-20, Bama is second at 39-21.
What I am stumbling around trying to say is that Ohio State fans are incredibly spoiled. If you are say an Iowa fan and you go to a game where Ohio State is top-5 and Iowa is ranked somewhere in the 20s, that game is HUGE in Iowa City but in Columbus it is more-or-less just another Saturday. Even a GameDay game for Ohio State isn't seen as a rare occurence because the Buckeyes have played in so many and Columbus has hosted 26.
More on Ohio State fans being spoiled in this regard:
GameDay started in 1993 for the "GOTC" of #1 FSU at #2 Notre Dame. It became semi-regular during the 1994 season and was definitively a part of CFB by 1995. Ohio State didn't appear until September 28, 1996 (at Notre Dame) and hosted a week later. I was there when Corso made his first headgear pick of Ohio State over Penn State on October 5, 1996 because I was in school then and that was the first time Ohio State hosted GameDay. It is cool to see . . . once. After that it is just a bunch of congestion and headaches.
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Among the 11 teams of the Big11Ten there are 55 possible match-ups (10 for the first team, 9 for the second . . . =55). Three of those have the exact same winning percentage regardless of location:
- Ohio State / Indiana: The Hoosiers are 0-fer regardless of location.
- Penn State / Purdue: They played 18 times between 1993-2023 with Purdue once at home and once in State College. Penn State leads 8-1 in both home and road games against Purdue.
- Wisconsin / Indiana: They played 20 times from 1993-2023 with Wisconsin holding an 8-2 advantage both in Madison and in Bloomington.
In 15 of these, there is a statistical HFD or Home Field Disadvantage:
(https://i.imgur.com/5ZF0qaz.png)
IMHO, you can just throw the bottom eight out as "noise" due to small sample-size. Specifically, if you look at #8, Minnesota had one win over Ohio State from 1993-2023 and that one win happened to occur in Columbus so the Gophers went 1-9 in Columbus and 0-9 against Ohio State in Minneapolis.
The other seven are harder to toss aside but I still think most they are 'noise' issues.
- Like Minnesota, the Illini didn't beat Ohio State in Champaign between 1993-2023 but they did win four times in Columbus.
- Northwestern went 3-9 against the Spartans in Evanston but 6-5 in East Lansing.
- The Illini were 2-10 against the Boilermakers in Champaign but 5-8 in West Lafayette.
- Just like with Ohio State, the Illini beat Michigan four times between 1993-2023. In this case it wasn't all four but still three of the four wins were in Ann Arbor so the Illini went 1-8 against Michigan in Champaign and 3-7 in Ann Arbor.
- Minnesota beat Michigan twice between 1993-2023 and both of those were in Ann Arbor. 0-11 at home, 2-9 in the Big House.
- This one is a one-game difference. The Illini went 3-13 against the Spartans but two of the three upsets were in East Lansing so they end up 1-8 against MSU at home and 2-5 in East Lansing.
- The Spartans beat Ohio State four times (in true H/A games) from 1993-2023 and three of the four were in Columbus so they ended up 1-11 against Ohio State in East Lansing and 3-9 in Columbus.
Here are the 37 match-ups with a statistical HFA:
(https://i.imgur.com/sZN81Rb.png)
I will not go through all of these but most of them make sense. The top 10:
- Iowa was the 5th and MSU the 6th best team in the league so you would expect them to be evenly matched such that HFA would be more frequently decisive.
- Minnesota was the 9th and Indiana the 11th best team in the league same.
- This one makes no sense. Ohio State was the best (by a LOT) and Purdue was 8th so you wouldn't expect HFA to matter much in this series but they call them the Spoilermakers in Columbus for a reason. Purdue went 0-9 in Columbus but 5-6 against Ohio State in West Lafayette.
- Wisconsin was the third and MSU the 6th best team so this makes sense.
- These were the worst two teams in the league so this makes sense.
- Purdue was the 8th and Minnesota the 9th best team so this makes sense.
- This one seems odd because NU was the 7th best and IU was the worst team but I think NU's highs and lows make this one make sense. Most of the time NU was a bottom-feeder right with IU.
- Penn State was the 4th an MSU the 6th best team in the league so this makes sense.
- Michigan was the second and Wisconsin the 3rd best team in the league so this makes sense.
- These were the best two teams in the league so this makes sense.
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What I am stumbling around trying to say is that Ohio State fans are incredibly spoiled. If you are say an Iowa fan and you go to a game where Ohio State is top-5 and Iowa is ranked somewhere in the 20s, that game is HUGE in Iowa City but in Columbus it is more-or-less just another Saturday. Even a GameDay game for Ohio State isn't seen as a rare occurence because the Buckeyes have played in so many and Columbus has hosted 26.
To add to that, Iowa seems to rarely play Ohio St and hardly ever plays well against OSU, so I understand why OSU does not get excited about playing a 20th ranked Iowa.
Although Iowa does sneak a win against OSU in Iowa City every now and then, including that strange 55-24 Iowa victory in 2017. Now if Iowa would have played Ohio St in Columbus in 2018, the OSU fans might have been a little more fired up than normal, but Iowa and Ohio St did not play from 2018 to 2021. So by the the time Iowa played OSU again in 2022, everybody had forgotten about that 2017 beat down.
In contrast, Iowa seems to sneak victories over Penn St and Michigan more often. Kirk Ferentz is 11-9 vs PSU and 7-9 vs Michigan. So they take Iowa a little more seriously, I believe.
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Kinnick is the loudest, by a large margin, that I've ever experienced as a visiting fan.
In the Big Ten, I'd say Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin were up there.
Michigan? Shit, I could take a nap in that place. Especially as I get older.
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To add to that, Iowa seems to rarely play Ohio St and hardly ever plays well against OSU, so I understand why OSU does not get excited about playing a 20th ranked Iowa.
Although Iowa does sneak a win against OSU in Iowa City every now and then, including that strange 55-24 Iowa victory in 2017. Now if Iowa would have played Ohio St in Columbus in 2018, the OSU fans might have been a little more fired up than normal, but Iowa and Ohio St did not play from 2018 to 2021. So by the the time Iowa played OSU again in 2022, everybody had forgotten about that 2017 beat down.
In contrast, Iowa seems to sneak victories over Penn St and Michigan more often. Kirk Ferentz is 11-9 vs PSU and 7-9 vs Michigan. So they take Iowa a little more seriously, I believe.
It is kinda funny that while Iowa only has two wins over Ohio State in the last 30+ years, both were complete blowouts.
As far as HFA, I don't think it contributed to either one. In 2004 Iowa was just flat out a better team and beat the crap out of the Buckeyes 33-7 in Iowa City. The game might have been closer in Columbus but I don't think HFA flips a 26 point MOV. In 2017 Ohio State *SHOULD* have been the better team but the Hawkeyes just annihilated the Buckeyes in a 55-24 blowout in Iowa City. Same there, I don't think moving that game to Columbus does anything but maybe make it a little closer.
The 2017 Iowa / Ohio State and the 2018 Purdue / Ohio State results are two of the most inexplicable results in memory. Those two Ohio State teams went a combined 25-3 and the only other loss was to a CFP Oklahoma team while those Iowa / Purdue teams went a combined 14-12.
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by the the time Iowa played OSU again in 2022, everybody had forgotten about that 2017 beat down.
I thought my memory sucked
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Individual match-ups in the SEC:
Note that the SEC has more because it includes the 12 members as of 1992 where the Big11Ten version only has 11 teams so the SEC has 66 match-ups compared to just 55 for the Big11Ten.
The SEC also has a higher number of flukiness due to small sample sizes. For example, looking at their three best teams over the 1992-2023 timeframe:
- Bama/Florida only played 8 total true H/A games against each other. Bama went 3-1 in Tuscaloosa and also in the Swamp.
- Bama/Georgia only played 7 true H/A games against each other. Bama went 3-1 in Athens but only 1-2 in Tuscaloosa.
- Florida/Georgia only played 2 true H/A games against each other. Florida won both in the Swamp and in Athens.
Anyway, here are the 14 match-ups where the records were the same in both locations:
(https://i.imgur.com/9bx3Zez.png)
Here are the 12 match-ups where there was a statistical HFD:
(https://i.imgur.com/hhOyzE7.png)
Here are the 40 match-ups where there was a statistical HFA:
(https://i.imgur.com/3IqCiYx.png)