CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: LittlePig on August 27, 2025, 01:40:43 PM
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I have learned a couple things over the years.
1. My pre-season power rankings will always be wrong
2. Power rankings are still fun to do anyway.
3. It's always fun to see what everyone else thinks.
So here goes nothing. I will put my rankings in separate post below.
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1. Ohio State - I have learned over the years always put Ohio St #1 until they lose, no matter how many times in a row they have lost to Michigan.
2. Oregon - I was impressed with what Oregon did last year, they just ironically drew a bad seed in the playoffs.
3. Penn St - The popular pre-season choice to win the Big Ten. But I want to see them actually beat Oregon and Ohio St before I give them the #1 spot.
4. Indiana - I feel like Ind did not get the proper respect last year, but their only 2 losses were to the 2 teams that played in NCG last year.
5. Illinois - was my sleeper team last year. I guess they still are my sleeper team this year.
6. Michigan - Yes they finished strong last year, but they also were a .500 team most of the year.
7. Iowa - Could Iowa finally have a complete offense this year? I doubt it.
8. Minnesota - usually fields a decent team
9. USC - can USC bounce back after a mediocre first season in Big Ten?
10. Washington - ditto
11. UCLA - I have to give the UCLA coach credit for finishing much better than I expected last year.
12. Nebraska - Well, at least they went to a bowl and had a winning season last year.
13. Michigan St - will MSU make a big jump in the coach's 2nd season?
14. Wisconsin - better win or coach will get fired
15. Rutgers - Can they build on last season?
16. Purdue - They could not be any worse than last year, right?
17. MD - probably the worst coach in Big Ten, in my opinion.
18. NW - let's see if they can turn it around.
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As typically are the media's, my pre-season rankings are mostly a reflection of my biases, with a heavy dose of what I think of the current Badgers (plus the inevitable misplaced pre-season optimism):
1) Ohio State: for the same reason LP stated above. Until proven different, OSU is the team to beat.
2) Oregon: similar to Ohio State.
3) Michigan: the sports writers say it should be Penn State, but is it really true that Franklin can't win the big game?
4) Penn State: probably too low...maybe not.
Honestly, everything after this is just me spit balling (as if the same weren't true for the first four):
5) Iowa: will be solid on the lines and play everyone tough. Won't have the elite talent to beat the big boys, and will lose a close one or two to someone else. Because that's what Iowa does.
6) Illinois: should be higher than Iowa because finished better last season? Maybe. Bielema's teams are a lot like Ferentz's teams, but he has less history at Illinois, and Illinois doesn't have the long-term record of moderate success that Iowa does.
7) Nebraska: higher than Indiana? Why not. Lot of love pouring Rhule's way right now, and a returning QB to boot.
8) Wisconsin: yup, you read that right. Reverting to a winning-the-trenches mindset, and a QB with strong Big Ten experience. I like it. And I'm biased as all get out. Now, that doesn't mean finishing much higher than 6-6, but I'm calling it: 7-5, and the best 7-5 in the country.
9) USC: the Trojan's will be solid, but will struggle with travel because everyone does.
10) Minnesota: as much as I dislike Fleck, he's got this thing going pretty consistently, and the schedule will do Minnesota some favors--as long as they don't tank the trip to Berkeley, which they might.
11) Indiana: this low? Yup. I still don't believe. We'll see. Beat Illinois at home on September 20, and go to Iowa City and come out with a win, then I'll get back on the bandwagon. Lose both of those, and I see a 7-5 season, which ain't bad, but it's no a repeat of last year.
12) Washington: probably a solid team, and the travel actually suits them pretty well. Will finish with a good record--better than several teams ahead of them on my list (but this is my power ranking, not where I'm predicting each will finish in the conference).
13) UCLA: not a bad team, not a bad schedule, but travel is hard, and going to Northwestern and Michigan State are the kinds of games that will suck. On the other hand, getting Nebraska in Pasadena will be an advantage.
14) Michigan State: why not?
15) Northwestern: sure.
16) Rutgers: probably not abysmal.
17) Maryland: someone has to go here. And the Badgers have their quarterback.
18) Purdon't: I hope Purdue will be better than the Atlantic coast teams.
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I have learned a couple things over the years.
1. My pre-season power rankings will always be wrong
2. Power rankings are still fun to do anyway.
3. It's always fun to see what everyone else thinks.
So here goes nothing. I will put my rankings in separate post below.
This is exactly a perfect first post in this thread!
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Everyone is so afraid of AI taking over the world, when I put this topic in AI to produce big ten 2025 projections.. It spit this out.
(https://i.imgur.com/Ex2s5kv.png)
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Everyone is so afraid of AI taking over the world, when I put this topic in AI to produce big ten 2025 projections.. It spit this out.
(https://i.imgur.com/Ex2s5kv.png)
Yeah, I think it was 2023 when I asked AI to preview the CFP, and it did pretty well--except highlighting a quarterback who had gone to the NFL draft the previous year :57:
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Oregon
4. Michigan
5. Nebraska
6. Iowa
7. Illinois
8. Indiana
9. Minnesota
10. USC
11. Wisconsin
12. Washington
13. Michigan State
14. UCLA
15. Rutgers
16. Maryland
17. Northwestern
18. Purdue
So, that's 6 too many, unfortunately.
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1. Penn State
2. Oregon
3. The University of Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Indiana
6. USC
7. Illinois
8. Nebraska
9. Minnesota
10. Iowa
11. Wisconsin
12. Washington
13. Michigan State
14. UCLA
15. Rutgers
16. Maryland
17. Northwestern
18. Purdue (Or a a friend once called them, Unidue Perversity)
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- Buckeyes
- Ducks
- Nittany Lions
- Fighting Illini
- Hoosiers
- Trojans
- Huskies
- Wolverines
- Cornhuskers
- Badgers
- Hawkeyes
- Gophers
- Spartans
- Bruins
- Scarlet Knights
- Terrapins
- Mildcats
- Spoilermakers
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- OHIO STATE - assuming Sayin is at least decent
- PENN STATE - might be the best team on paper, but Franklin has to get by OSU
- OREGON - is Dante Moore ready?
- MICHIGAN - assuming Bryce Underwood is at least decent
- USC - less flashy, but maybe Lincoln Riley's most complete team in Troy
- IOWA - feels like perpetually #6, so why not
- INDIANA - there will be some backslide, but I don't think a ton
- ILLINOIS - not sold on the defense
- NEBRASKA - same as above, but I trust Altmyer more than Railoa right now
- MINNESOTA - schedule could not set up better for a CFP run
- WASHINGTON - plenty of weapons, not sure about the coaching
- WISCONSIN - what does Fickell need to do to keep his job?
- RUTGERS - talent seems to be improving, but the gap was big
- UCLA - Nico wasn't worth he wanted from Tennessee to be a championship QB, but he's a big upgrade in Westwood
- MARYLAND - Locksley's final ride?
- MICHIGAN STATE - the OL should be better, but still major concerns on defense, particularly the back seven
- NORTHWESTERN - Pat Fitzgerald firing karma tour
- PURDUE - taking over a much worse situation than he did at Mizzou, and that didn't go great
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In thinking about this, for this year, I think that the expansion to 18 teams (I know that isn't new this year) has really changed how we *SHOULD* look at this at least from about mid-season on. In past years, once you got to about the middle of the season I think that most people would simply rank the teams by conference record and then tiebreak within that by SoS and *MAYBE* jump a 3-2 team over a 4-1 team because the 3-2 team lost to two REALLY good teams.
With 18 teams the schedules vary more than ever before so we need to view this in that light. According to the NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6570309/2025/08/26/big-ten-football-schedule-strength-rankings/) the SoS rankings "From Wisconsin to Michigan" are:
- Wisconsin Avg TA136 ranking of B1G opponents 26.8, 9 top-50, 6 top-25
- Rutgers, 33.7, 7, 4
- Iowa, 37.1, 7, 4
- Michigan State, 36.3, 7, 3
- Purdue, 35.1, 8, 5
- Northwestern, 35.1, 8, 3
- Penn State, 40.1, 5, 3
- UCLA, 39.1, 8, 3
- Ohio State, 44.1, 6, 4
- Southern California, 43.6, 6, 4
- Oregon, 41.9, 6, 2
- Maryland, 41.2, 5, 3
- Indiana, 40, 4, 3
- Washington, 44.2, 4, 4
- Nebraska, 45, 5, 2
- Minnesota, 48.2, 4, 2
- Illinois, 53.1, 5, 2
- Michigan, 54.4, 4, 2
They have them grouped into a top-tier of UW through NU then a middle tier of PSU through Maryland, and an easiest tier of Indiana through Michigan.
Of course we have to remember that as the year plays out, this will change as well. Maybe half of Wisconsin's six preseason AP top-25 opponents will suck and drop out of the poll and by the end of the season their schedule will not look so tough. Maybe three or four of Michigan's unranked opponents will have spectacular years and wind up ranked and their schedule will not look so easy.
That said, based on what we know now, a hypothetical 7-5 Wisconsin is probably not just better than a hypothetical 7-5 Illinois, Minnesota, or Nebraska but the Badgers at 7-5 are probably better than any of those teams at 9-3 and maybe even 10-2.
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I admit it was kinda cool under the old 14-team setup, even with divisions, any 2 teams would always have 6 common opponents, if you ever wanted to compare 2 teams strength of schedule.
So usually the only difference, when comparing the 3 teams you did not play, was team A would play 2 strong teams while team B would play 2 weak teams. Rarely would Team A play 3 stronger teams, and even if you did, it was not certain Team A would go 0-3 against them. So really there was only a 1 game win difference due to a strong schedule.
With this new setup, I have not quite wrapped my head around how much the schedule matters. Medina is way ahead of me on that one.
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- OHIO STATE - assuming Sayin is at least decent
- PENN STATE - might be the best team on paper, but Franklin has to get by OSU
- OREGON - is Dante Moore ready?
- MICHIGAN - assuming Bryce Underwood is at least decent
- USC - less flashy, but maybe Lincoln Riley's most complete team in Troy
- IOWA - feels like perpetually #6, so why not
- INDIANA - there will be some backslide, but I don't think a ton
- ILLINOIS - not sold on the defense
- NEBRASKA - same as above, but I trust Altmyer more than Railoa right now
- MINNESOTA - schedule could not set up better for a CFP run
- WASHINGTON - plenty of weapons, not sure about the coaching
- WISCONSIN - what does Fickell need to do to keep his job?
- RUTGERS - talent seems to be improving, but the gap was big
- UCLA - Nico wasn't worth he wanted from Tennessee to be a championship QB, but he's a big upgrade in Westwood
- MARYLAND - Locksley's final ride?
- MICHIGAN STATE - the OL should be better, but still major concerns on defense, particularly the back seven
- NORTHWESTERN - Pat Fitzgerald firing karma tour
- PURDUE - taking over a much worse situation than he did at Mizzou, and that didn't go great
looks pretty spot on to me, but I think I'd flip Penn State and Ohio State on paper with Penn State having a super easy schedule and with Drew Allar's considerable talent and him potentially having a level up going into his SR year and them actually adding WRs in the porthole for him- but you right...Frames Janklin being the head coach factor looms large which translation = they losing to Ohio State.
I might flip USC and Michigan too as well just because of the uncertainty of the WR position for Michigan and while Bryce Underwood certainly looks the part- he's still a true freshman and he's bound to go through a little bit of growing pains which could cost Michigan a game or two- especially those tough road games @OU, @NEB, and @SC.
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(https://i.imgur.com/6Jj0EZ8.png)
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In thinking about this, for this year, I think that the expansion to 18 teams (I know that isn't new this year) has really changed how we *SHOULD* look at this at least from about mid-season on. In past years, once you got to about the middle of the season I think that most people would simply rank the teams by conference record and then tiebreak within that by SoS and *MAYBE* jump a 3-2 team over a 4-1 team because the 3-2 team lost to two REALLY good teams.
With 18 teams the schedules vary more than ever before so we need to view this in that light. According to the NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6570309/2025/08/26/big-ten-football-schedule-strength-rankings/) the SoS rankings "From Wisconsin to Michigan" are:
- Wisconsin Avg TA136 ranking of B1G opponents 26.8, 9 top-50, 6 top-25
- Rutgers, 33.7, 7, 4
- Iowa, 37.1, 7, 4
- Michigan State, 36.3, 7, 3
- Purdue, 35.1, 8, 5
- Northwestern, 35.1, 8, 3
- Penn State, 40.1, 5, 3
- UCLA, 39.1, 8, 3
- Ohio State, 44.1, 6, 4
- Southern California, 43.6, 6, 4
- Oregon, 41.9, 6, 2
- Maryland, 41.2, 5, 3
- Indiana, 40, 4, 3
- Washington, 44.2, 4, 4
- Nebraska, 45, 5, 2
- Minnesota, 48.2, 4, 2
- Illinois, 53.1, 5, 2
- Michigan, 54.4, 4, 2
They have them grouped into a top-tier of UW through NU then a middle tier of PSU through Maryland, and an easiest tier of Indiana through Michigan.
Of course we have to remember that as the year plays out, this will change as well. Maybe half of Wisconsin's six preseason AP top-25 opponents will suck and drop out of the poll and by the end of the season their schedule will not look so tough. Maybe three or four of Michigan's unranked opponents will have spectacular years and wind up ranked and their schedule will not look so easy.
That said, based on what we know now, a hypothetical 7-5 Wisconsin is probably not just better than a hypothetical 7-5 Illinois, Minnesota, or Nebraska but the Badgers at 7-5 are probably better than any of those teams at 9-3 and maybe even 10-2.
I also think it depends on your goals. MSU has an "easier" schedule this year, because they don't play road games at Ohio State and Oregon. They weren't beating those teams anywhere, so might as well burn 2 road games on them. If you are an NC contender (at least pre-CFP) that is brutal. If you are just trying to get to a bowl, you want as many winnable games as possible. Doesn't matter how hard the hardest games are. And I think MSU's schedule this year is harder, considering what MSU is trying to do. Now their two toughest opponents, UM and PSU, are at home. Wasting two home games there. The more coin toss games (Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana) are all on the road. They don't play either of the two clear worst teams (Purdue or Northwestern) at all
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Oregon
4. Michigan
5. Washington
6. Iowa
7. USC
8. Illinois
9. Indiana
10. Wisconsin
11. Nebraska
12. Minnesota
13. Michigan State
14. UCLA
15. Rutgers
16. Maryland
17. Northwestern
18. Purdue
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Maybe half of Wisconsin's six preseason AP top-25 opponents will suck and drop out of the poll and by the end of the season their schedule will not look so tough.
Generally this is a solid expectation. My question is: who? It's not going to be Ohio State. Michigan may have some trouble with the new QB, but not that much, and Wisconsin plays in Ann Arbor. That place is a house of horrors for the Badgers even in good years. At Oregon? Oregon will be solid, and with a 1700 mile trip to get there, even if Oregon is just a top 20 team, that will be tough on the Badgers. At Alabama? Alabama will be a tough, top 15 team.
So: Illinois and Indiana are the two. Will both of them take big steps back? I think one of them will, and I'm guessing Indiana. Then you have Iowa and @Minnesota. Top 25 teams? Probably on the bubble. Minnesota's schedule is likely to make them a top 25 team when Wisconsin plays them at the end of the season. Iowa will be Iowa--it always is.
Bottom line, I doubt this schedule has three of the top 8 teams that are truly not very good. I suspect 7--not 6--of the teams Wisconsin plays will be in the top 25 when Wisconsin plays them. And I think four of those will be beatable--if Wisconsin has truly repaired its line play. Which means Wisconsin will be a top-25 worthy team, if not actually ranked there. And if Wisconsin beats two of them, and beats Washington in Madison, the Badgers likely finish 6-6.
:a102:
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I also think it depends on your goals. MSU has an "easier" schedule this year, because they don't play road games at Ohio State and Oregon. They weren't beating those teams anywhere, so might as well burn 2 road games on them. If you are an NC contender (at least pre-CFP) that is brutal. If you are just trying to get to a bowl, you want as many winnable games as possible. Doesn't matter how hard the hardest games are. And I think MSU's schedule this year is harder, considering what MSU is trying to do. Now their two toughest opponents, UM and PSU, are at home. Wasting two home games there. The more coin toss games (Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana) are all on the road. They don't play either of the two clear worst teams (Purdue or Northwestern) at all
This is a very important point.
If you are a league title contender, you want other league title contenders at home.
If you are a middling team, you want other middling teams at home.
If you are a bottom-feeder, you want other bottom feeders at home.
HFA is only likely to be determinative in what you called "coin toss games" so you want it there because it is, as you put it, wasted against teams so much better than you that you are going to lose anyway and similarly, it is also wasted against teams so much worse than you that you are going to win anyway.
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1. Penn State - Apparently I have failed to make you good folks understand just how good Penn State is this year. This is the most talented team Penn State has had since 1994. They are likely to have 12-15 draft picks in the 2026 draft, including as many as 4 in the first round. 15 draft picks would tie the all time record currently held by 2022 Georgia. They also have perhaps the best offensive and defensive coordinators in CFB. Their schedule even sets up nicely, with the exception of playing @ OSU.
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Illinois
5. Michigan
6. USC -feels too low
7. Nebraska - feels too high
8. Iowa
9. Indiana
10. Washington
11. Minnesota
12. Wisconsin
13. Rutgers
14. Maryland - Worst coach in the B1G, but they keep him around for some reason
15. UCLA
16. Michigan State
17. Purdue
18. Northwestern
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(https://i.imgur.com/eP3aUKx.png)