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The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 02:19:58 PM

Title: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 02:19:58 PM
Same as before.  Using the combined SP+/FPI rankings to simulate each game.

Preseason Poll Projection


Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2025, 02:24:44 PM
Man, I was really hoping for this. Thanks.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 02:43:15 PM
WEEK ZERO

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 02:45:21 PM
Also, to make it a little fun, I always slightly adjust if you are +/- 2 in upsets to allow for over and underperforming teams
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2025, 02:46:12 PM
I predict UGA starts 2-0.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2025, 03:18:12 PM
11 from the SEC in the top 25??
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2025, 03:24:55 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 30, 2025, 03:18:12 PM
11 from the SEC in the top 25??
Lower than usual.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2025, 03:36:10 PM
somebody believes in the Boomer Sooners
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Mdot21 on July 30, 2025, 05:40:56 PM
man advanced metrics must really like the defense, cause Michigan at #11 is a lot higher than I'd have them.

I THINK that Michigan could rebound in a huge way, but pinning the hopes on a 17 year old true freshman QB who won't turn 18 until the season starts seems like a risky proposition. On one hand the QB play probably can't get any worse than it was last year. Having said that- true frosh QB's are prone to make mistakes- if you start him- you're just going to have to live with the growing pains as he figures it out and that might cost you some games.

Defense should be lights out and very deep- and probably even better in year 2 of Wink Martindale's scheme. RB duo should be top tier with Jordan Marshall & Justice Haynes. OL should improve some- RT Andrew Sprague is a budding superstar future 1st rd tackle imo. They lost Colston Loveland but Marlin Klein is an up and comer who has proven he can play at this level and they have lots of young emerging TE talent and have recruited well at the position. WR is the biggest ? on the entire offense outside of QB imo.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 05:44:54 PM
WEEK ONE
Thursday, August 28


Friday, August 29


Saturday, August 30
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbus, OH



Sunday, August 31

Monday, September 1
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 05:51:45 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/DLXZPDN.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/fuBBlYA.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/is47NlZ.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 06:04:44 PM
SEPTEMBER 2 POLL



Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2025, 10:35:40 AM
WEEK 2
Friday, September 5
#24 Boise State d. Eastern Washington

James Madison d. Louisville
MARYLAND d. Northern Illinois
NORTHWESTERN d. Western Illinois

Saturday, September 6
ESPN College Gameday, live from Norman, OK
#22 Oklahoma d. #9 MICHIGAN

#1 OHIO STATE d. Grambling
#2 OREGON d. Oklahoma State
#3 Georgia d. Austin Peay
#5 Texas d. San Jose State
#6 PENN STATE d. FIU
#7 Alabama d. UL Monroe
#8 Clemson d. Troy
#10 ILLINOIS d. Duke
#11 Texas A&M d. Utah State
#12 Tennessee d. East Tennessee State
#13 LSU d. Louisiana Tech
#14 Ole Miss d. Kentucky
#15 Miami d. Bethune-Cookman
#16 South Carolina d. SC State
Mississippi State d. #17 Arizona State
#18 Missouri d. Kansas
#19 SMU d. Baylor
#20 Florida d. South Florida
#21 Kansas State d. Army
#23 INDIANA d. Kennesaw State
#25 Arkansas d. Arkansas State

Appalachian State d. Lindenwood
Arizona d. Weber State
Auburn d. Ball State
Buffalo d. St. Francis(PA)
BYU d. Stanford
California d. Texas Southern
Central Florida d. North Carolina A&T
Coastal Carolina d. Charleston Southern
Colorado d. Delaware
Colorado State d. Northern Colorado
Connecticut d. Syracuse
East Carolina d. Campbell
Eastern Michigan d. Long Island
Florida Atlantic d. Florida A&M
Florida State d. East Texas A&M
Georgia Tech d. Gardner-Webb
Iowa State d. IOWA
Liberty d. Jacksonville State
Louisiana d. McNeese
Marshall d. Missouri State
Massachusetts d. Bryant
Memphis d. Georgia State
MICHIGAN STATE d. Boston College
Mississippi State d. Arizona State
MINNESOTA d. Northwestern State
Navy d. UAB
NEBRASKA d. Akron
Nevada d. Sacramento State
New Mexico d. Idaho State
NM State d. Tulsa
North Carolina d. Charlotte
North Texas d. Western Michigan
Ohio d. West Virginia
Old Dominion d. NC Central
Oregon State d. Fresno State
Pittsburgh d. Central Michigan
PURDUE d. Southern Illinois
Rice d. Houston
RUTGERS d. Miami(Ohio)
Sam Houston d. Hawaii
South Alabama d. Tulane
Southern Miss d. Jackson State
Temple d. Howard
Texas Tech d. Kent State
Toledo d. Western Kentucky
USC d. Georgia Southern
UNLV d. UCLA
Utah d. Cal Poly
UTEP d. UT Martin
UTSA d. Texas State
Vanderbilt d. Virginia Tech
Virginia d. NC State
Wake Forest d. Western Carolina
WASHINGTON d. UC Davis
Washington State d. San Diego State
WISCONSIN d. Western Kentucky
Wyoming d. Northern Iowa
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on July 31, 2025, 10:37:39 AM
Quote from: ELA on July 30, 2025, 05:44:54 PM

Saturday, August 30
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbus, OH
  • #1 OHIO STATE d. #2 Texas
This entire thing is BULLSHIT, man!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2025, 10:55:43 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/72ikHNz.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/r3GMHqA.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/S3S9TNE.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2025, 11:08:46 AM
SEPTEMBER 7 POLL
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 31, 2025, 11:16:16 AM
Bama has an eight week stretch where they play six teams projected to be ranked and a team that beat them last year.  That is rough.  
(https://i.imgur.com/pQg5ahl.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: jgvol on July 31, 2025, 12:00:06 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 31, 2025, 11:16:16 AM
Bama has an eight week stretch where they play six teams projected to be ranked and a team that beat them last year.  That is rough. 
(https://i.imgur.com/pQg5ahl.png)


What a shame.  My heart hurts for them.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: SFBadger96 on July 31, 2025, 12:03:01 PM
And Wisconsin! Reading the beat reporters right now has convinced me Bama better not sleep on the new-look Badgers! :-)

/sarcasm (mostly)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 31, 2025, 02:35:05 PM
Quote from: jgvol on July 31, 2025, 12:00:06 PM
What a shame.  My heart hurts for them.
I'm sure you won't shed any tears for @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) 's Gators either but this 5-week stretch is pretty rough as well:
(https://i.imgur.com/CyfeyIN.png)
It doesn't get much easier for them.  After that they get MissSt at home then a week off then #4 in the WLOCP, at UK, and at #15 OleMiss.  Then they host your #14 Volunteers.  
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 31, 2025, 02:40:20 PM
I made this table based on @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's projected preseason poll from above, if I missed anything please let me know and I'll add it:
(https://i.imgur.com/nYWiHkM.png)

One interesting thing that I noticed in putting this together is that the neutral site game in Dublin, Ireland on August 23 between Kansas State and Iowa State might be easy to overlook but it could have a major impact in determining which B12 team makes the playoffs.  The B12 only has three ranked teams:

The top-2 do NOT play each other so the key games are KSU/ISU in Dublin in "week 0" and ASU/ISU in Ames on November 1. 
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2025, 02:41:48 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on July 31, 2025, 12:03:01 PM
And Wisconsin! Reading the beat reporters right now has convinced me Bama better not sleep on the new-look Badgers! :-)

/sarcasm (mostly)
(https://i.imgur.com/7GtRk1u.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: SFBadger96 on July 31, 2025, 06:26:52 PM
4-0 headed into the first break.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2025, 07:52:39 PM
Wow, didn't realize the cake walk Kansas State had to the Big XII Championship

I will say, the predictive metrics do love Texas Tech, so that might be the wrench
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Temp430 on August 01, 2025, 07:35:31 AM
UCLA d. Utah?  What happened to Utah?
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 01, 2025, 08:43:51 AM
well, UCLA is a Big Ten team now so, ..............the Bruins got way better by association

kinda like the SEC
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 01, 2025, 02:09:39 PM
The season simulation has Husker football going 1-1 against the Michigan schools.


https://www.si.com/college/nebraska/football/huskermax-season-sim-nebraska-suffers-first-loss-of-2025-cornhuskers-football-big-ten (https://www.si.com/college/nebraska/football/huskermax-season-sim-nebraska-suffers-first-loss-of-2025-cornhuskers-football-big-ten)

Both Michigan and Nebraska would keep exchanging touchdowns to make it 48-34 with a little more than two minutes to go in the game, but Raiola ended up throwing a game-sealing interception. The Wolverines could just kneel it out from there after a first down on the ensuing possession.


Up Next - Michigan @ Nebraska Sim: End of Game, Michigan Wins 48-34.mp4


Although short-lived, Nebraska's undefeated season comes to an end at the hands of Michigan 48-34. Michigan ended up winning in nearly every statistical category in the game. They tallied 508 yards of total offense despite the slow start, but neither team could get anything going on the ground in this game. The Wolverines averaged 3.7 yards per rush, while Nebraska and lead back Emmett Johnson really struggled, managing just 2.1 yards per rush.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 01, 2025, 02:26:55 PM
WEEK THREE
Thursday, September 11
NC State d. Wake Forest

Friday, September 12
Arizona d. #21 Kansas State
#22 INDIANA d. Indiana State

Houston d. Colorado
Syracuse d. Colgate
UCLA d. New Mexico

Saturday, September 13
ESPN College Gameday, live from South Bend, IN
#10 Texas A&M d. #4 Notre Dame

#1 OHIO STATE d. Ohio
#2 OREGON d. NORTHWESTERN
#3 Georgia d. #11 Tennessee
#5 Texas d. UTEP
#6 PENN STATE d. Villanova
#7 Alabama d. WISCONSIN
#8 Clemson d. Georgia Tech
#9 ILLINOIS d. Western Michigan
#12 Oklahoma d. Temple
#13 LSU d. #20 Florida
#14 Ole Miss d. #25 Arkansas
#15 Miami d. South Florida
#16 South Carolina d. Vanderbilt
#17 MICHIGAN d. Central Michigan
#18 Missouri d. Louisiana
#19 SMU d. Missouri State
#23 Mississippi State d. Alcorn State

Air Force d. Utah State
Arizona State d. Texas State
Auburn d. South Alabama
Ball State d. New Hampshire
Baylor d. Samford
Bowling Green d. Liberty
Buffalo d. Kent State
Charlotte d. Monmouth
Cincinnati d. Northwestern State
Coastal Carolina d. East Carolina
Connecticut d. Delaware
Florida Atlantic d. FIU
Fresno State d. Southern
Georgia Southern d. Jacksonville State
Georgia State d. Murray State
Hawaii d. Portland State
IOWA d. Massachusetts
Kennesaw State d. Merrimack
Kentucky d. Eastern Michigan
Louisiana Tech d. NM State
Marshall d. Eastern Kentucky
MARYLAND d. Towson
Memphis d. Troy
MICHIGAN STATE d. Youngstown State
MINNESOTA d. California
Navy d. Tulsa
NEBRASKA d. Houston Christian
Nevada d. Middle Tennessee
North Carolina d. Richmond
North Texas d. Washington State
Pittsburgh d. West Virginia
Rice d. Prairie View A&M
RUTGERS d. Norfolk State
Southern Miss d. Appalachian State
Stanford d. Boston College
TCU d. Abilene Christian
Texas Tech d. Oregon State
Toledo d. Morgan State
Tulane d. Duke
UAB d. Akron
USC d. PURDUE
Utah d. Wyoming
UTSA d. Incarnate Word
Virginia d. William & Mary
Virginia Tech d. Old Dominion
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 01, 2025, 02:57:54 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/x5aDhB6.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/VpCzah4.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/xD6YGfP.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 01, 2025, 03:32:30 PM
SEPTEMBER 14 POLL
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 01, 2025, 04:03:46 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 01, 2025, 03:32:30 PM
SEPTEMBER 14 POLL
  • OHIO STATE (3-0) 1
  • OREGON (3-0) 2
  • Georgia (3-0) 3
  • Texas A&M (3-0) 10
  • Texas (2-1) 5
  • PENN STATE (3-0) 6
  • Alabama (3-0) 7
  • Clemson (3-0) 8
  • ILLINOIS (3-0) 9
  • Oklahoma (3-0) 12
  • LSU (2-1) 13
  • Ole Miss (3-0) 14
  • Notre Dame (1-1) 4
  • Miami (2-1) 15
  • South Carolina (3-0) 16
  • Tennessee (2-1) 11
  • MICHIGAN (2-1) 17
  • Missouri (3-0) 18
  • SMU (3-0) 19
  • INDIANA (3-0) 22
  • Mississippi State (3-0) 23
  • Arizona (3-0) -
  • Boise State (2-0) 24
  • USC (3-0) -
  • NEBRASKA (3-0) -

This entire thing is BULLSHIT, man!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 01, 2025, 04:10:25 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BoXUpyeCQAA2WhY?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 02, 2025, 01:31:19 PM
WEEK FOUR
Thursday, September 18
Charlotte d. Rice

Friday, September 19
IOWA d. RUTGERS
Oklahoma State d. Tulsa

Saturday, September 20
ESPN College Gameday, live from Lincoln, NE
#25 NEBRASKA d. #17 MICHIGAN

#2 OREGON d. Oregon State
#5 Texas d. Sam Houston
#8 Clemson d. Syracuse
#9 ILLINOIS d. #20 INDIANA
#10 Oklahoma d. Auburn
#11 LSU d. SE Louisiana
#12 Ole Miss d. Tulane
#13 Notre Dame d. PURDUE
#14 Miami d. Florida
#16 Tennessee d. UAB
#18 Missouri d. #15 South Carolina
#19 SMU d. TCU
#21 Mississippi State d. Northern Illinois
#23 Boise State d. Air Force
#24 USC d. MICHIGAN STATE

Akron d. Duquesne
Arizona State d. Baylor
Arkansas d. Memphis
Arkansas State d. Kennesaw State
Army d. North Texas
Central Florida d. North Carolina
Central Michigan d. Wagner
Colorado d. Wyoming
Colorado State d. UTSA
Connecticut d. Ball State
Delaware d. FIU
East Carolina d. BYU
Eastern Michigan d. Louisiana
Florida State d. Kent State
Georgia Southern d. Maine
Georgia Tech d. Temple
Hawaii d. Fresno State
Jacksonville State d. Murray State
James Madison d. Liberty
Louisville d. Bowling Green
Middle Tennessee d. Marshall
Missouri State d. UT Martin
NC State d. Duke
Ohio d. Gardner-Webb
San Diego State d. California
San Jose State d. Idaho
South Alabama d. Coastal Carolina
South Florida d. SC State
Southern Miss d. Louisiana Tech
Texas State d. Nicholls
Texas Tech d. Utah
Troy d. Buffalo
UL Monroe d. UTEP
UNLV d. Miami(Ohio)
Utah State d. McNeese
Vanderbilt d. Georgia State
Virginia d. Stanford
Virginia Tech d. Wofford
WASHINGTON d. Washington State
West Virginia d. Kansas
Western Kentucky d. Nevada
Western Michigan d. Toledo
WISCONSIN d. MARYLAND
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2025, 01:32:56 PM
#25 NEBRASKA d. #17 MICHIGAN

:)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 02, 2025, 01:33:03 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/c1nXH7y.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/FmcyPRX.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/efHotX1.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 02, 2025, 01:39:36 PM
SEPTEMBER 21 POLL







Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2025, 01:46:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2025, 01:32:56 PM
#25 NEBRASKA d. #17 MICHIGAN

:)
please God!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2025, 01:47:12 PM
probably upset by Sparty next week
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 02, 2025, 04:53:08 PM
WEEK FIVE
Thursday, September 25
Army d. East Carolina

Friday, September 26
Oregon State d. Houston
TCU d. Arizona State
Virginia d. Florida State

Saturday, September 27
ESPN College Gameday, live from Athens, GA
#7 Alabama d. #3 Georgia

#1 OHIO STATE d. #24 WASHINGTON
#6 PENN STATE d. #2 OREGON
#4 Texas A&M d. Auburn
#21 USC d. #9 ILLINOIS
#12 Ole Miss d. #11 LSU
#13 Missouri d. Massachusetts
#14 Notre Dame d. Arkansas
#16 Tennessee d. #19 Mississippi State
Iowa State d. #20 Arizona
Kentucky d. #22 South Carolina
#23 Boise State d. Appalachian State
#25 MINNESOTA d. RUTGERS

Air Force d. Hawaii
Akron d. Toledo
Baylor d. Oklahoma State
Boston College d. California
Bowling Green d. Ohio
BYU d. Colorado
Central Michigan d. Eastern Michigan
Colorado State d. Washington State
Florida Atlantic d. Memphis
Georgia Tech d. Wake Forest
INDIANA d. IOWA
James Madison d. Georgia Southern
Kansas d. Cincinnati
Kansas State d. Central Florida
Louisiana d. Marshall
Louisiana Tech d. UTEP
Louisville d. Pittsburgh
Miami(Ohio) d. Lindenwood
Middle Tennessee d. Kennesaw State
Missouri State d. Western Kentucky
Navy d. Rice
NC State d. Virginia Tech
New Mexico d. NM State
North Texas d. South Alabama
Northern Illinois d. San Diego State
Old Dominion d. Liberty
San Jose State d. Stanford
Southern Miss d. Jacksonville State
Syracuse d. Duke
Tulane d. Tulsa
UCLA d. NORTHWESTERN
UL Monroe d. Arkansas State
Utah d. West Virginia
Vanderbilt d. Utah State
Western Michigan d. Rhode Island
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 02, 2025, 04:55:22 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/cpO9ge6.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/eSBA1Ay.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/bekaeyG.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 02, 2025, 05:12:29 PM
SEPTEMBER 28 POLL







Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2025, 09:44:12 AM
that's right - bye week get's the Big Red into the top 15 since forever - Bo Pelini
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 04, 2025, 02:16:57 PM
WEEK SIX
Thursday, October 2
NM State d. Sam Houston

Friday, October 3
BYU d. West Virginia
Colorado State d. San Diego State
Delaware d. Western Kentucky
San Jose State d. New Mexico
South Florida d. Charlotte

Saturday, October 4
ESPN College Gameday, live from South Bend, IN
#12 Notre Dame d. #19 Boise State

#1 OHIO STATE d. #20 MINNESOTA
#2 PENN STATE d. UCLA
#3 Alabama d. Vanderbilt
#4 Texas A&M d. #23 Mississippi State
#5 Texas d. Florida
#6 Clemson d. North Carolina
#7 Oklahoma d. Kent State
#10 Georgia d. #24 Kentucky
#13 Miami d. Florida State
#15 NEBRASKA d. MICHIGAN STATE
#17 SMU d. Syracuse
#18 ILLINOIS d. PURDUE
Houston d. #21 Texas Tech
Louisville d. #22 Virginia
Cincinnati d. #25 Iowa State

Akron d. Central Michigan
Appalachian State d. Oregon State
Arkansas State d. Texas State
Army d. UAB
Baylor d. Kansas State
Boston College d. Pittsburgh
Buffalo d. Eastern Michigan
Central Florida d. Kansas
Connecticut d. FIU
Duke d. California
Florida Atlantic d. Rice
Fresno State d. Nevada
James Madison d. Georgia State
MARYLAND d. WASHINGTON
Massachusetts d. Western Michigan
Memphis d. Tulsa
MICHIGAN d. WISCONSIN
Navy d. Air Force
NC State d. Campbell
Northern Illinois d. Miami(Ohio)
NORTHWESTERN d. UL Monroe
Ohio d. Ball State
Oklahoma State d. Arizona
Old Dominion d. Coastal Carolina
TCU d. Colorado
Troy d. South Alabama
UNLV d. Wyoming
UTSA d. Temple
Virginia Tech d. Wake Forest
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 04, 2025, 02:24:57 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/P53qgzJ.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/ZrIijwt.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/YGAh0XR.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2025, 02:40:16 PM
Husker fans gonna blow up
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 04, 2025, 02:55:17 PM
OCTOBER 5 POLL
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 05, 2025, 02:53:09 PM
blood week - 10 ranked teams lose, 8 were upsets, 7 were to unranked teams

WEEK SEVEN
Wednesday, October 8
Middle Tennessee d. Missouri State
UTEP d. Liberty

Thursday, October 9
Georgia Southern d. Southern Miss
Jacksonville State d. Sam Houston
Louisiana Tech d. Kennesaw State
Tulane d. East Carolina

Friday, October 10
Colorado State d. Fresno State
South Florida d. North Texas
WASHINGTON d. RUTGERS

Saturday, October 11
ESPN College Gameday, live from Dallas, TX
#5 Texas d. #7 Oklahoma

#1 OHIO STATE d. #18 ILLINOIS
#2 PENN STATE d. NORTHWESTERN
#11 Missouri d. #3 Alabama
Florida d. #4 Texas A&M
Boston College d. #6 Clemson
#8 Ole Miss d. Washington State
#9 OREGON d. #20 INDIANA
#10 Georgia d. Auburn
#12 Notre Dame d. NC State
#14 Tennessee d. Arkansas
MARYLAND d. #15 NEBRASKA
MICHIGAN d. #16 USC
#17 SMU d. Stanford
Arizona d. #21 BYU
#22 MINNESOTA d. PURDUE
Cincinnati d. #23 Central Florida
#24 Boise State d. New Mexico
Kansas d. #25 Texas Tech

Arizona State d. Utah
Army d. Charlotte
Colorado d. Iowa State
Florida Atlantic d. UAB
Florida State d. Pittsburgh
Georgia State d. Appalachian State
Georgia Tech d. Virginia Tech
Hawaii d. Utah State
Houston d. Oklahoma State
IOWA d. WISCONSIN
James Madison d. Louisiana
Kansas State d. TCU
LSU d. South Carolina
Marshall d. Old Dominion
Massachusetts d. Kent State
Miami(Ohio) d. Akron
MICHIGAN STATE d. UCLA
Navy d. Temple
Nevada d. San Diego State
Northern Illinois d. Eastern Michigan
Oregon State d. Wake Forest
San Jose State d. Wyoming
Texas State d. Troy
Toledo d. Bowling Green
UL Monroe d. Coastal Carolina
UNLV d. Air Force
UTSA d. Rice
Western Michigan d. Ball State
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 05, 2025, 03:11:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Fi01tkl.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/OBaZITQ.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/k5joAu8.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2025, 03:29:55 PM
damn it, boy
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 05, 2025, 03:33:59 PM
OCTOBER 12 POLL
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 05, 2025, 05:50:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 05, 2025, 03:29:55 PM
damn it, boy
If there is one think Big Ten fans know, its that when Maryland and Nebraska get together, throw out the record books
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2025, 05:48:41 PM
WEEK EIGHT
Tuesday, October 14
NM State d. Liberty
South Alabama d. Arkansas State
Western Kentucky d. FIU

Wednesday, October 15
Jackson State d. Delaware
Sam Houston d. UTEP

Thursday, October 16
East Carolina d. Tulsa

Friday, October 17
#16 Louisville d. #9 Miami
#17 MINNESOTA d. #20 NEBRASKA

North Carolina d. California
Utah State d. San Jose State

Saturday, October 18
ESPN College Gameday, live from Athens, GA
#7 Georgia d. #5 Ole Miss

#1 OHIO STATE d. WISCONSIN
IOWA d. #2 PENN STATE
#3 Texas d. Kentucky
Auburn d. #4 Missouri
#6 OREGON d. RUTGERS
#8 Notre Dame d. #21 USC
#11 Alabama d. #10 Tennessee
South Carolina d. #12 Oklahoma
#15 Clemson d. #13 SMU
Arkansas d. #14 Texas A&M
UNLV d. #18 Boise State
Washington State d. #19 Virginia
South Florida d. #23 Florida Atlantic
#25 MICHIGAN d. WASHINGTON

Air Force d. Wyoming
Appalachian State d. Coastal Carolina
Arizona State d. Texas Tech
Ball State d. Akron
Boston College d. Connecticut
BYU d. Utah
Central Florida d. West Virginia
Central Michigan d. Bowling Green
Cincinnati d. Oklahoma State
Colorado State d. Hawaii
Duke d. Georgia Tech
Florida d. Mississippi State
Florida State d. Stanford
Georgia Southern d. Georgia State
Houston d. Arizona
INDIANA d. MICHIGAN STATE
James Madison d. Old Dominion
Louisiana d. Southern Miss
Marshall d. Texas State
Massachusetts d. Buffalo
Memphis d. UAB
Miami(Ohio) d. Eastern Michigan
New Mexico d. Nevada
Ohio d. Northern Illinois
Oregon State d. Lafayette
PURDUE d. NORTHWESTERN
Syracuse d. Pittsburgh
TCU d. Baylor
Temple d. Charlotte
Toledo d. Kent State
Troy d. UL Monroe
Tulane d. Army
UCLA d. MARYLAND
UTSA d. North Texas
Vanderbilt d. LSU
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2025, 05:54:07 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/rIB7bvb.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/PIg8S3a.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/n03FvGx.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2025, 06:54:55 PM
OCTOBER 19 POLL




Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2025, 06:56:54 PM
so, Rhule and Raiola can't win on the road
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2025, 07:09:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 06, 2025, 06:56:54 PM
so, Rhule and Raiola can't win on the road
Should never have left the Big 8
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2025, 07:10:34 PM
I assume they lost in the last 5 minutes - turnover or special teams gaff
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: MrNubbz on August 06, 2025, 07:18:24 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 31, 2025, 10:37:39 AM
This entire thing is BULLSHIT, man!
Not sure about ENTIRE,but 1 vs 2 isn't accurate :cheer:
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2025, 08:37:40 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 06, 2025, 07:10:34 PM
I assume they lost in the last 5 minutes - turnover or special teams gaff
Heard Minnesota illegally kicked a thrown ball for a last minute TD :57:
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2025, 08:41:28 PM
It happens 
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2025, 08:41:42 PM
To Michigan 
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2025, 08:44:58 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 06, 2025, 08:41:42 PM
To Michigan
Missouri
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2025, 08:57:34 PM
It seems to have bothered the blue boys more than the misery boys 
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2025, 09:06:26 PM
Big 8 only got fun at the end
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2025, 09:53:17 PM
For the huskers and the buffs
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2025, 11:48:47 PM
Fifth down favorites!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2025, 08:26:02 AM
don't forget about puttin one second back on the clock in the Big 12
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2025, 08:55:31 AM
Restoring the clock to its proper timing.  Good job by the refs, thank goodness for video evidence.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2025, 09:09:48 AM
I thought that was a terrible call. I couldn't believe it when I saw it.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2025, 09:12:34 AM
I didn't think it was terrible (it felt terrible)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2025, 09:13:56 AM
I have zero rooting interest, and at the time, UNL was still on the "hate" list. 

I thought it was a terrible call.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2025, 09:21:35 AM
most people thought that way

to that point in CFB history there weren't many occurrences of putting time back on the clock

the Huskers had one in the Orange bowl vs Charlie Ward and the Seminoles - missed the FG
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2025, 09:49:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2025, 09:09:48 AM
I thought that was a terrible call. I couldn't believe it when I saw it.
Getting the call right is terrible? Yeah, no.

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2025, 09:53:23 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 07, 2025, 09:21:35 AM
the Huskers had one in the Orange bowl vs Charlie Ward and the Seminoles - missed the FG
Yeah.  I mean, that happened a decade and a half earlier.  In 1994 it might have been unheard of, but in 2009 it certainly wasn't.

The rules could be changed to disallow use of video evidence.  It would be odd to create a rule with the intention of NOT being able to correct a bad call, with the intent of deliberately creating worse outcomes, but if that were the rule, then we'd all have to live by it.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2025, 09:57:28 AM
if video evidence was used during the 94 season and 95 orange bowl - the huskers wouldn't have needed a last sec FG attempt
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2025, 10:22:11 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 07, 2025, 09:57:28 AM
if video evidence was used during the 94 season and 95 orange bowl - the huskers wouldn't have needed a last sec FG attempt
Ah so unlike in 2009 when they corrected a bad call, in 1994 they had no evidence to support putting time back on the clock?  That seems crazy.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2025, 01:59:47 PM
No sir.  The clock call was correct.   There were a few other incorrect calls earlier in the game that could have should have been corrected 
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2025, 02:03:09 PM
Ah, well then, all's well that ends well.

We shouldn't chide the officials when they change things to correct something, that was incorrectly called in the first place.  Better officiating is good for the whole sport, even when we don't like the way the call went.

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2025, 10:55:56 PM
ya win some, ya lose some

it's the way the cookie crumbles
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2025, 10:55:24 AM
WEEK NINE
Tuesday, October 21
Kennesaw State d. FIU
Louisiana Tech d. Western Kentucky

Wednesday, October 22
Delaware d. Middle Tennessee
Missouri State d. NM State

Thursday, October 23
South Alabama d. Georgia State

Friday, October 24
Boise State d. Nevada
North Texas d. Charlotte
Virginia Tech d. California

Saturday, October 25
ESPN College Gameday, live from Iowa City, IA
#9 MINNESOTA d. #18 IOWA

#2 Texas d. Mississippi State
#4 OREGON d. WISCONSIN
South Carolina d. #6 Alabama
Boston College d. #8 Louisville
#19 Oklahoma d. #11 Ole Miss
Vanderbilt d. #12 Missouri
Stanford d. #13 Miami
#14 Tennessee d. Kentucky
Florida Atlantic d. #15 Navy
#16 ILLINOIS d. WASHINGTON
#17 MICHIGAN d. MICHIGAN STATE
Wake Forest d. #20 SMU
LSU d. #21 Texas A&M
#22 INDIANA d. UCLA
#23 Arizona State d. Houston
#24 NEBRASKA d. NORTHWESTERN

Arkansas d. Auburn
Bowling Green d. Kent State
Buffalo d. Akron
Cincinnati d. Baylor
Colorado d. Utah
Colorado State d. Wyoming
Georgia Southern d. Arkansas State
Georgia Tech d. Syracuse
Iowa State d. BYU
Kansas State d. Kansas
Louisiana d. Troy
Massachusetts d. Central Michigan
Miami(Ohio) d. Western Michigan
NC State d. Pittsburgh
New Mexico d. Utah State
North Carolina d. Virginia
Northern Illinois d. Ball State
Ohio d. Eastern Michigan
Old Dominion d. Appalachian State
Rice d. Connecticut
RUTGERS d. PURDUE
South Florida d. Memphis
Southern Miss d. UL Monroe
TCU d. West Virginia
Temple d. Tulsa
Texas Tech d. Oklahoma State
Toledo d. Washington State
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2025, 10:56:47 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/DnFPJqt.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/2vFBnMC.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/Y2MjJ2X.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2025, 11:09:24 AM
OCTOBER 26 POLL


Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2025, 12:23:38 PM
South Carolina d. #6 Alabama
Boston College d. #8 Louisville
#19 Oklahoma d. #11 Ole Miss
Vanderbilt d. #12 Missouri
Stanford d. #13 Miami
#14 Tennessee d. Kentucky
Florida Atlantic d. #15 Navy
Wake Forest d. #20 SMU
LSU d. #21 Texas A&M


UPSET Saturday!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: SFBadger96 on August 08, 2025, 12:35:28 PM
So far this is entirely predictable for the Badgers...

and predictably sad.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2025, 01:16:36 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on August 08, 2025, 12:35:28 PM
So far this is entirely predictable for the Badgers...

and predictably sad.
I think they will be better than last season, but the schedule is the problem. This was a full-on rebuild project for Fick, and this ain't Cincy.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2025, 01:21:50 PM
Another bad record wouldn't kill me, so long as they show major progress.

They can't give up a million rushing yards to Mini and IA. They just can't. If they do, I'm out on Tressel and Fick.

What really hurts on this thread is seeing Mini ranked #7. And Illinois #11.

And @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) thinks very highly of Indiana, ranking them at #15 and #24.

;)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2025, 02:17:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2025, 01:21:50 PM
And @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) thinks very highly of Indiana, ranking them at #15 and #24.

;)
They are so loaded, their backups could make the Cheez It Bowl
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: jgvol on August 09, 2025, 08:36:13 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 08, 2025, 12:23:38 PM
South Carolina d. #6 Alabama
Boston College d. #8 Louisville
#19 Oklahoma d. #11 Ole Miss
Vanderbilt d. #12 Missouri
Stanford d. #13 Miami
#14 Tennessee d. Kentucky
Florida Atlantic d. #15 Navy
Wake Forest d. #20 SMU
LSU d. #21 Texas A&M


UPSET Saturday!

Tennessee upset Kentucky. LOL
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2025, 12:35:50 PM
WEEK TEN
Tuesday, October 28
James Madison d. Texas State
UTEP d. Kennesaw State

Wednesday, October 29
Jacksonville State d. Middle Tennessee
Missouri State d. FIU

Thursday, October 30
Coastal Carolina d. Marshall
Tulane d. UTSA

Halloween
Louisiana Tech d. Sam Houston
Memphis d. Rice
Syracuse d. North Carolina

Saturday, November 1
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbus, OH
#1 OHIO STATE d. #9 PENN STATE

#2 Texas d. #17 Vanderbilt
#3 Georgia d. Florida
#22 Boston College d. #5 Notre Dame
#6 Clemson d. Duke
#7 MINNESOTA d. MICHIGAN STATE
#9 Tennessee d. #10 Oklahoma
#11 ILLINOIS d. RUTGERS
#12 MICHIGAN d. PURDUE
Virginia Tech d. #14 Louisville
#15 INDIANA d. MARYLAND
#16 Ole Miss d. South Carolina
Iowa State d. #19 Arizona State
#20 NEBRASKA d. #21 USC
North Texas d. #23 Navy
Texas Tech d. #24 Kansas State
Miami d. #25 SMU

Air Force d. Army
Arkansas d. Mississippi State
Arkansas State d. Troy
Auburn d. Kentucky
Boise State d. Fresno State
Bowling Green d. Buffalo
Central Florida d. Baylor
Central Michigan d. Western Michigan
Colorado d. Arizona
Connecticut d. UAB
Delaware d. Liberty
Florida State d. Wake Forest
Georgia Tech d. NC State
Houston d. West Virginia
Old Dominion d. UL Monroe
Pittsburgh d. Stanford
San Jose State d. Hawaii
South Alabama d. Louisiana
Temple d. East Carolina
UNLV d. New Mexico
Utah d. Cincinnati
Virginia d. California
Washington State d. Oregon State
Western Kentucky d. NM State
Wyoming d. San Diego State
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2025, 12:44:14 PM
Horns getting revenge on the 'Dores.  I'd say the UGA season so far is pretty likely.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2025, 12:45:16 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/AIxNn1j.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/eKVCVP2.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/UtiGvgx.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2025, 12:46:25 PM
I'll take it so far

W over Muleshoe!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2025, 01:37:38 PM
NOVEMBER 2 POLL
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2025, 09:34:13 AM
WEEK ELEVEN
Tuesday, November 4
Akron d. Massachusetts
Ohio d. Miami(Ohio)

Wednesday, November 5
Ball State d. Kent State
Northern Illinois d. Toledo

Thursday, November 6
Appalachian State d. Georgia Southern
UTSA d. South Florida

Friday, November 7
Houston d. #18 Central Florida

Tulane d. Memphis
USC d. NORTHWESTERN

Saturday, November 8
ESPN College Gameday, live from State College, PA
#13 PENN STATE d. #11 INDIANA

#1 OHIO STATE d. PURDUE
#3 Georgia d. Mississippi State
#4 OREGON d. IOWA
#5 Clemson d. Florida State
#10 Alabama d. LSU
#12 Ole Miss d. The Citadel
#14 Boston College d. SMU
#15 Notre Dame d. Navy
#16 Missouri d. Texas A&M
#17 NEBRASKA d. UCLA
#20 UNLV d. Colorado State
#21 James Madison d. Marshall
#23 Vanderbilt d. Auburn
#24 Louisville d. California
#25 Miami d. Syracuse

Army d. Temple
BYU d. Texas Tech
Charlotte d. East Carolina
Duke d. Connecticut
Eastern Michigan d. Bowling Green
FIU d. Middle Tennessee
Florida Atlantic d. Tulsa
Georgia State d. Coastal Carolina
Hawaii d. San Diego State
Kansas d. Arizona
Kentucky d. Florida
Louisiana d. Texas State
Louisiana Tech d. Delaware
Missouri State d. Liberty
NM State d. Kennesaw State
Oregon State d. Sam Houston
Rice d. UAB
RUTGERS d. MARYLAND
San Jose State d. Air Force
Southern Miss d. Arkansas State
Stanford d. North Carolina
TCU d. Iowa State
Utah State d. Nevada
UTEP d. Jacksonville State
Wake Forest d. Virginia
WASHINGTON d. WISCONSIN
West Virginia d. Colorado
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2025, 09:36:47 AM
Now, UGA faces Texas, late in the year, in Athens.  The winner goes to Atlanta, the loser probably does for a rematch.

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2025, 09:42:18 AM
8 Big teams in the top 20 - suck it SEC
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2025, 10:13:35 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Ue9AHcQ.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/VipIoMy.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/GE90XWq.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2025, 10:24:25 AM
hey, a winning conference record!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2025, 10:30:01 AM
NOVEMBER 9 POLL
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: GopherRock on August 11, 2025, 01:18:59 PM
Just reading this now. 

Damn, @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) . Whatever computer is simulating this season sure does like the Gophers. Another win down at Mordor after not getting one since the Clinton administration? 

And as for the Big 8, the Big 8 of peak Nebraska ain't coming back either. That consisted of Nebraska, OU, one other halfway decent team (would rotate between Colorado, Missouri, and Okie State), and 5 rotten, ends-blown-out tomato cans. 
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2025, 02:18:55 PM
Just randomness.

Houston is in 1st in the Big XII, despite ranking #14 of 16 in ratings

Minnesota and Wisconsin are #11 and #12 in the Big Ten in the ratings, and yet Minnesota is 8-1 and ranked #6, while Wisconsin is 3-6 and about to fire Fickell
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 12, 2025, 10:23:02 AM
Grr, had issues with browser crashing but hopefully I can get this to post this time.  

Per @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's simulation the B1G standings heading into the last three weeks are:

All other teams are mathematically eliminated from the CG because they have >3 losses while Ohio State and the MN/Ore winner can do no worse than 6-3.  

As a practical matter the teams with more than one loss are likely out of the running because:
The most likely results are either:

The multi-team tiebreakers are:

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 12, 2025, 10:37:34 AM
FWIW:
Within this scenario the cumulative records of conference opponents for tOSU, Ore, and M are:



Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 14, 2025, 02:12:51 PM
WEEK TWELVE
Tuesday, November 11
Akron d. Kent State
Western Michigan d. Ohio

Wednesday, November 12
Buffalo d. Central Michigan
Miami(Ohio) d. Toledo
Northern Illinois d. Massachusetts

Thursday, November 13
Troy d. Old Dominion

Friday, November 14
#4 OREGON d. #6 MINNESOTA
#23 Louisville d. #5 Clemson

Saturday, November 15
ESPN College Gameday, live from Athens, GA
#3 Georgia d. #2 Texas

#1 OHIO STATE d. UCLA
#7 Tennessee d. NM State
#8 ILLINOIS d. MARYLAND
#9 MICHIGAN d. NORTHWESTERN
#21 Oklahoma d. #10 Alabama
#11 Ole Miss d. Florida
#12 PENN STATE d. MICHIGAN STATE
#13 Boston College d. #18 Georgia Tech
#14 Notre Dame d. Pittsburgh
#15 Missouri d. Mississippi State
#17 INDIANA d. WISCONSIN
#19 UNLV d. Utah State
#20 James Madison d. Appalachian State
#24 Miami d. NC State

Air Force d. Connecticut
Arizona State d. West Virginia
Baylor d. Utah
BYU d. TCU
Cincinnati d. Arizona
Eastern Michigan d. Ball State
Florida State d. Virginia Tech
Fresno State d. Wyoming
Georgia Southern d. Coastal Carolina
Kennesaw State d. Jacksonville State
Kentucky d. Tennessee Tech
Liberty d. FIU
LSU d. Arkansas
Marshall d. Georgia State
Memphis d. East Carolina
Middle Tennessee d. Western Kentucky
Nevada d. San Jose State
New Mexico d. Colorado State
North Carolina d. Wake Forest
North Texas d. UAB
Oklahoma State d. Kansas State
Oregon State d. Tulsa
San Diego State d. Boise State
Sam Houston d. Delaware
South Carolina d. Texas A&M
South Florida d. Navy
Texas State d. Southern Miss
Texas Tech d. Central Florida
Tulane d. Florida Atlantic
UL Monroe d. South Alabama
USC d. IOWA
UTEP d. Missouri State
UTSA d. Charlotte
Virginia d. Duke
WASHINGTON d. PURDUE
Washington State d. Louisiana Tech
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 14, 2025, 02:17:04 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/OsErIep.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/knZ7cKQ.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/3BBexyC.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 14, 2025, 02:55:44 PM
NOVEMBER 16 POLL



Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2025, 03:22:03 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 14, 2025, 02:12:51 PM

#3 Georgia d. #2 Texas
This whole thing is BULLSHIT, man!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: jgvol on August 14, 2025, 03:41:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 14, 2025, 03:22:03 PM
This whole thing is BULLSHIT, man!


Kinda digging it myself.



(https://i.imgur.com/oz2yvGD.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 14, 2025, 04:29:21 PM
Based on this simulation the three-loss teams are now all but mathematically eliminated.  It doesn't matter for Iowa since they picked up a fourth loss in week 10 anyway but here are the standings and remaining games for the mathematical contenders:

Indiana is in the race mathematically but for all practical purposes they are out.  They can't catch Ohio State and they could only tie Oregon and Michigan but they would need BOTH Oregon and Michigan to lose out and they would also need all of IL, MN, UNL, PSU, and USC to each lose at least one game.  

As a practical matter it isn't very likely that tOSU or Oregon will lose at home to RU (2-5) or USC (5-2) or that Michigan will lose on the road to Maryland (2-5).  If they all win this week then the only way for a 2-loss team to get in the mix would be for Oregon (at UDub) and Michigan (vs tOSU) to both lose on the final weekend.  Even that would only create a tie between Oregon, Michigan, and any of IL, MN, UNL, and PSU that manage to win out.  

Oregon is extremely likely to win out and the Buckeyes and Wolverines are very likely to win their week-11 games which only leaves two reasonably likely possibilities:
In the event of the three-way tie, H2H2H does not apply since they didn't all play and no team beat the other two so it goes through a series of non-decisive tiebreakers and lands on Cumulative Conference record of conference opponents.  Here is an update on that:

I don't *THINK* that Michigan's opponents could possibly make up that much ground which means that if the Bucks and Ducks both win this weekend they more-or-less lock up CG bids.  


I am also fairly certain that, in this simulation, Ohio State would mathematically lock up a CG bid with a win this weekend at home over Rutgers because at that point the worst they could do would be a three-way tie with Oregon and Michigan and while Oregon's opponents might catch Ohio State's opponents, Michigan's can't so the Buckeyes would go either as outright regular season champions or as winners of the tiebreaker.  
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2025, 08:02:28 PM
WEEK THIRTEEN
Tuesday, November 18
Bowling Green d. Akron
Northern Illinois d. Western Michigan
Ohio d. Massachusetts

Wednesday, November 19
Central Michigan d. Kent State
Miami(Ohio) d. Buffalo

Thursday, November 20
Arkansas State d. Louisiana

Friday, November 21
#19 UNLV d. Hawaii

NC State d. Florida State

Saturday, November 22
ESPN College Gameday, live from State College, PA
#9 PENN STATE d. #15 NEBRASKA

#1 OHIO STATE d. RUTGERS
#2 Georgia d. Charlotte
#3 OREGON d. #25 USC
#4 Texas d. Arkansas
Florida d. #5 Tennessee
#6 ILLINOIS d. WISCONSIN
MARYLAND d. #7 MICHIGAN
#11 MINNESOTA d. NORTHWESTERN
#12 Notre Dame d. Syracuse
#13 Clemson d. Furman
#17 Oklahoma d. #14 Missouri
#18 Alabama d. Eastern Illinois
#20 James Madison d. Washington State
SMU d. #21 Louisville
#22 Vanderbilt d. Kentucky
#23 Miami d. Virginia Tech
#24 Houston d. TCU

Air Force d. New Mexico
Arizona State d. Colorado
Army d. Tulsa
Auburn d. Mercer
Baylor d. Arizona
Cincinnati d. BYU
Colorado State d. Boise State
Florida Atlantic d. Connecticut
Fresno State d. Utah State
Georgia Southern d. Old Dominion
Georgia State d. Troy
Georgia Tech d. Pittsburgh
IOWA d. MICHIGAN STATE
Jacksonville State d. FIU
Kansas d. Iowa State
Kansas State d. Utah
Kennesaw State d. Missouri State
Louisiana Tech d. Liberty
Marshall d. Appalachian State
Middle Tennessee d. Sam Houston
North Carolina d. Duke
Oklahoma State d. Central Florida
Rice d. North Texas
San Diego State d. San Jose State
South Alabama d. Southern Miss
South Carolina d. Coastal Carolina
Stanford d. California
Texas State d. UL Monroe
Toledo d. Ball State
Tulane d. Temple
UAB d. South Florida
UCLA d. WASHINGTON
UTEP d. NM State
UTSA d. East Carolina
Wake Forest d. Delaware
Western Kentucky d. LSU
Wyoming d. Nevada
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2025, 08:07:37 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/M043MAg.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/7eo6xk8.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/8qHJcFm.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2025, 08:08:17 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 15, 2025, 08:02:28 PM
Western Kentucky d. LSU
Brian Kelly = done
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2025, 08:38:20 PM
NOVEMBER 23 POLL
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2025, 09:26:44 PM
WEEK FOURTEEN
Tuesday, November 25
Bowling Green d. Massachusetts
Western Michigan d. Eastern Michigan

THANKSGIVING
Memphis d. Navy

Friday, November 28
#2 Georgia d. #25 Georgia Tech
#4 Texas d. Texas A&M
#6 Ole Miss d. Mississippi State
#15 INDIANA d. PURDUE
IOWA d. #21 NEBRASKA
#24 Arizona State d. Arizona

Boise State d. Utah State
Buffalo d. Ohio
Colorado State d. Air Force
New Mexico d. San Diego State
Northern Illinois d. Kent State
Utah d. Kansas
UTSA d. Army

Saturday, November 29
ESPN College Gameday, live from Ann Arbor, MI
#1 OHIO STATE d. #14 MICHIGAN

#3 OREGON d. WASHINGTON
#5 ILLINOIS d. NORTHWESTERN
#7 PENN STATE d. RUTGERS
Syracuse d. #8 Boston College
#9 MINNESOTA d. WISCONSIN
#10 Notre Dame d. Stanford
#11 Clemson d. South Carolina
#12 Oklahoma d. LSU
#13 Tennessee d. #19 Vanderbilt
#16 Alabama d. Auburn
#17 UNLV d. Nevada
#18 James Madison d. Coastal Carolina
#20 Missouri d. Arkansas
#22 Miami d. Pittsburgh
#23 Houston d. Baylor

Appalachian State d. Arkansas State
Central Florida d. BYU
Central Michigan d. Toledo
Duke d. Wake Forest
East Carolina d. Florida Atlantic
Florida d. Florida State
Jacksonville State d. Western Kentucky
Hawaii d. Wyoming
Kansas State d. Colorado
Liberty d. Kennesaw State
Louisiana d. UL Monroe
Louisiana Tech d. Missouri State
Louisville d. Kentucky
Marshall d. Georgia Southern
MICHIGAN STATE d. MARYLAND
NC State d. North Carolina
NM State d. Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma State d. Iowa State
Old Dominion d. Georgia State
Rice d. South Florida
Sam Houston d. FIU
San Jose State d. Fresno State
SMU d. California
South Alabama d. Texas State
Southern Miss d. Troy
TCU d. Cincinnati
Temple d. North Texas
Texas Tech d. West Virginia
Tulane d. Charlotte
UAB d. Tulsa
USC d. UCLA
UTEP d. Delaware
Virginia d. Virginia Tech
Washington State d. Oregon State
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2025, 09:31:51 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Hi045zP.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/cJfr0fn.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/0qGSIom.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2025, 06:17:35 AM
Just my guess, but the Dawgs probably will end up 10-2, I suspect, but 11-1 works.  I think I would rather they lose to "Ole Miss" than Bama.

Saul Goodman.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2025, 07:36:16 AM
Wisconsin is not going 3-9 this season.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2025, 09:09:19 AM
Huskers aren't losing to the Hawks this season


....

..

..

..

..

..

I hope
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 17, 2025, 11:09:44 AM
NOVEMBER 30 POLL

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 17, 2025, 03:12:16 PM
WEEK FIFTEEN
Friday, December 5
#16 UNLV d. Colorado State
#17 James Madison d. South Alabama
#22 Tulane d. UTSA

Louisiana Tech d. UTEP

Saturday, December 6
ESPN College Gameday, live from Indianapolis, IN
#1 OHIO STATE d. #3 OREGON

#4 Texas d. #2 Georgia
#19 Miami d. #15 Boston College
#20 Houston d. #21 Arizona State

Miami(Ohio) d. Northern Illinois

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 17, 2025, 03:26:14 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/wMyGkXi.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/LgLyZ4h.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/8YUtYvA.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 17, 2025, 04:19:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2025, 07:36:16 AM
Wisconsin is not going 3-9 this season.
That's the spirit!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 17, 2025, 04:36:25 PM
DECEMBER 7 POLL


Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: GopherRock on August 17, 2025, 07:19:07 PM
If this is how things come to pass, holy cats. 10-2 and likely heading to the tournament. 

I can already see the Gophers getting the same media treatment as Indiana last year: 10 wins over warmed over piles of dog shit, blowout losses to the two teams with a pulse they played.


Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2025, 07:36:16 AM
Wisconsin is not going 3-9 this season.
Unless Fickell has completely rebuilt his lines in the offseason, 3-9 and his seat on fire is a non-zero possibility. 
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2025, 08:19:06 PM
So if I understand the CFP and this scenario then CFP seeds should be:

So games would be:

Right?
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2025, 06:05:26 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on August 17, 2025, 07:19:07 PM
If this is how things come to pass, holy cats. 10-2 and likely heading to the tournament.

I can already see the Gophers getting the same media treatment as Indiana last year: 10 wins over warmed over piles of dog shit, blowout losses to the two teams with a pulse they played.

Unless Fickell has completely rebuilt his lines in the offseason, 3-9 and his seat on fire is a non-zero possibility.
Which is why he's not going 3-9.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2025, 06:14:07 AM


One of these teams has an easier path than the others .....


Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2025, 10:30:18 AM
WEEK SIXTEEN
Saturday, December 13
Navy d. Army
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2025, 10:37:03 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2025, 08:19:06 PM
So if I understand the CFP and this scenario then CFP seeds should be:

  • #1 Ohio State
  • #2 Texas
  • #15 Miami
  • #16 UNLV
  • #3 Georgia
  • #4 Oregon
  • #5 Illinois
  • #6 Ole Miss
  • #7 Penn State
  • #8 Minnesota
  • #9 Notre Dame
  • #17 James Madison
So games would be:
  • Penn State at Ole Miss, winner vs Ohio State
  • Minnesota at Illinois, winner vs Texas
  • Notre Dame at Oregon, winner vs Miami
  • James Madison at Georgia,  winner vs UNLV

Right?
They got rid of 1st round byes for conference champions.  I hate that, I would have just gone to strict seeding each round.

So last year, Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State still get the byes.  But then the quarterfinals are seeded by actual ranking.  Boise State and Arizona State don't remain the #3 and #4 seeds.

It's instead

#1 Oregon vs. #12 Arizona State
#2 Georgia vs. #9 Boise State
#3 Texas vs. #6 Ohio State
#4 Penn State vs. #5 Notre Dame
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 18, 2025, 10:42:58 AM
Quote from: ELA on August 18, 2025, 10:37:03 AM
They got rid of 1st round byes for conference champions.  I hate that, I would have just gone to strict seeding each round.

So last year, Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State still get the byes.  But then the quarterfinals are seeded by actual ranking.  Boise State and Arizona State don't remain the #3 and #4 seeds.

It's instead

#1 Oregon vs. #12 Arizona State
#2 Georgia vs. #9 Boise State
#3 Texas vs. #6 Ohio State
#4 Penn State vs. #5 Notre Dame
Ok, but when do #7, #8, #10, and #11 play?  You've got 1-6, 9, and 12.  
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 18, 2025, 10:46:31 AM
Quote from: ELA on August 17, 2025, 03:12:16 PM


Saturday, December 6


#4 Texas d. #2 Georgia


This entire thing is great and is NOT complete bullshit!!!!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2025, 10:47:01 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 18, 2025, 10:42:58 AM
Ok, but when do #7, #8, #10, and #11 play?  You've got 1-6, 9, and 12. 
They all lost in the 1st round.  The 1st round would have been exactly the same.  But then rather than keeping BSU and ASU at #3 and #4, you seed them where they actually were.

It screwed Oregon and Georgia, because they had to play the #5 and #6 ranked teams, because they were the #7 and #8 seeds
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2025, 01:14:40 PM
DECEMBER 13.
LAColorado State (9-4) vs. Washington State (6-6)
DECEMBER 16
VETERANSBowling Green (7-5) vs. Southern Miss (7-5)
DECEMBER 17
CUREAppalachian State (6-6) vs. South Florida (6-6)
68 VENTURESCentral Michigan (7-5) vs. Louisiana (7-5)
DECEMBER 19
MYRTLE BEACHGeorgia Southern (8-4) vs. Navy (7-5)
GASPARILLAFlorida State (6-6) vs. LSU (6-6)
CFP#9 Notre Dame (10-2) at #8 MINNESOTA (10-2)
DECEMBER 20
CFP#17 James Madison (13-0) at #5 ILLINOIS (10-2)
CFP#16 UNLV (13-0) at #6 Ole Miss (10-2)
CFP#15 Miami (10-3) at #7 PENN STATE (10-2)
DECEMBER 22
POTATOBoise State (8-4) vs. Ohio (7-5)
DECEMBER 23
BOCA RATONMarshall (7-5) vs. Toledo (7-5)
NEW ORLEANSLouisiana Tech (10-3) vs. South Alabama (8-5)
FRISCOUTEP (7-6) vs. Rice (6-6)
DECEMBER 24
HAWAIIFlorida Atlantic (9-3) vs. Air Force (7-5)
DECEMBER 26
SPORTSCentral Florida (7-5) vs. Miami(Ohio) (8-4)
RATETCU (7-5) vs. Arkansas (6-6)
FIRST RESPONDERKansas (7-5) vs. North Texas (7-5)
DECEMBER 27
MILITARYNorth Carolina (7-5) vs. Army (7-5)
PINSTRIPELouisville (8-4) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
FENWAY#21 Tulane (11-2) vs. Virginia (8-4)
POP-TARTSGeorgia Tech (8-4) vs. Kansas State (8-4)
ARIZONANorthern Illinois (9-4) vs. San Jose State (7-5)
NEW MEXICOConnecticut (7-5) vs. New Mexico (6-6)
HOLIDAYNC State (8-4) vs. WASHINGTON (6-6)
GATOR#18 Missouri (9-3) vs. #20 Boston College (9-4)
TEXASTexas Tech (8-4) vs. South Carolina (7-5)
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMFlorida (6-6) vs. Memphis (8-4)
DECEMBER 30
INDEPENDENCEBYU (7-5) vs. Oregon State (7-5)
MUSIC CITY#12 Tennessee (9-3) vs. #22 MICHIGAN (8-4)
ALAMO#19 Houston (10-3) vs. USC (8-4)
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#11 Oklahoma (9-3) vs. #24 NEBRASKA (8-4)
SUNSMU (8-4) vs. Iowa State (6-6)
CITRUS#13 INDIANA (9-3) vs. #14 Alabama (9-3)
LAS VEGAS#25 Arizona State (9-4) vs. IOWA (7-5)
COTTON#4 OREGON (11-2)
JANUARY 1
ORANGE#3 Georgia (11-2)
ROSE#1 OHIO STATE (13-0)
SUGAR#2 Texas (11-2)
JANUARY 2
ARMED FORCESBaylor (6-6) vs. UTSA (9-4)
LIBERTYCincinnati (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (6-6)
MAYO#10 Clemson (10-2) vs. #23 Vanderbilt (8-4)
JANUARY 8
FIESTA
JANUARY 9
PEACH
JANUARY 19
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Abba on August 18, 2025, 04:48:40 PM
Kind of wild to imagine the Big XII being shut out, but the champ had 3 losses.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2025, 04:53:21 PM
Quote from: Abba on August 18, 2025, 04:48:40 PM
Kind of wild to imagine the Big XII being shut out, but the champ had 3 losses.
Mixed with 2 undefeated Group of 5 champions.

Houston just somehow couldn't lose, even though they were underdogs in like 10 of 13 games
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 19, 2025, 01:28:56 PM
Bowl Week 1

DECEMBER 13.
LAWashington State d. Colorado State
DECEMBER 16
VETERANSSouthern Miss d. Bowling Green
DECEMBER 17
CUREAppalachian State d. South Florida
68 VENTURESLouisiana d. Central Michigan
DECEMBER 19
MYRTLE BEACHNavy d. Georgia Southern
GASPARILLALSU d. Florida State
CFP#8 MINNESOTA d. #9 Notre Dame
DECEMBER 20
CFP#5 ILLINOIS d. #17 James Madison
CFP#6 Ole Miss d. #16 UNLV
CFP#7 PENN STATE d. #15 Miami
DECEMBER 22
POTATOBoise State (8-4) vs. Ohio (7-5)
DECEMBER 23
BOCA RATONMarshall (7-5) vs. Toledo (7-5)
NEW ORLEANSLouisiana Tech (10-3) vs. South Alabama (8-5)
FRISCOUTEP (7-6) vs. Rice (6-6)
DECEMBER 24
HAWAIIFlorida Atlantic (9-3) vs. Air Force (7-5)
DECEMBER 26
SPORTSCentral Florida (7-5) vs. Miami(Ohio) (8-4)
RATETCU (7-5) vs. Arkansas (6-6)
FIRST RESPONDERKansas (7-5) vs. North Texas (7-5)
DECEMBER 27
MILITARYNorth Carolina (7-5) vs. Army (7-5)
PINSTRIPELouisville (8-4) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
FENWAY#21 Tulane (11-2) vs. Virginia (8-4)
POP-TARTSGeorgia Tech (8-4) vs. Kansas State (8-4)
ARIZONANorthern Illinois (9-4) vs. San Jose State (7-5)
NEW MEXICOConnecticut (7-5) vs. New Mexico (6-6)
HOLIDAYNC State (8-4) vs. WASHINGTON (6-6)
GATOR#18 Missouri (9-3) vs. #20 Boston College (9-4)
TEXASTexas Tech (8-4) vs. South Carolina (7-5)
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMFlorida (6-6) vs. Memphis (8-4)
DECEMBER 30
INDEPENDENCEBYU (7-5) vs. Oregon State (7-5)
MUSIC CITY#12 Tennessee (9-3) vs. #22 MICHIGAN (8-4)
ALAMO#19 Houston (10-3) vs. USC (8-4)
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#11 Oklahoma (9-3) vs. #24 NEBRASKA (8-4)
SUNSMU (8-4) vs. Iowa State (6-6)
CITRUS#13 INDIANA (9-3) vs. #14 Alabama (9-3)
LAS VEGAS#25 Arizona State (9-4) vs. IOWA (7-5)
COTTON#4 OREGON (11-2) vs. #5 ILLINOIS (11-2)
JANUARY 1
ORANGE#3 Georgia (11-2) vs. #6 Ole Miss (11-2)
ROSE#1 OHIO STATE (13-0) vs. #8 MINNESOTA (11-2)
SUGAR#2 Texas (11-2) vs. #7 PENN STATE (10-2)
JANUARY 2
ARMED FORCESBaylor (6-6) vs. UTSA (9-4)
LIBERTYCincinnati (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (6-6)
MAYO#10 Clemson (10-2) vs. #23 Vanderbilt (8-4)
JANUARY 8
FIESTA
JANUARY 9
PEACH
JANUARY 19
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 19, 2025, 01:29:36 PM
Quarterfinals are 2 Big Ten vs. Big Ten games, 1 SEC vs. SEC game, and 1 Big Ten vs. SEC game

Full NFL-ization realized
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 19, 2025, 01:32:59 PM
So under last year's model, we would have had

Penn State at Ole Miss, winner vs Ohio State
Minnesota at Illinois, winner vs Texas
Notre Dame at Oregon, winner vs Miami
James Madison at Georgia,  winner vs UNLV


Just assume home teams win...
Ohio State vs. Ole Miss
Texas vs. Illinois
Miami vs. Oregon
UNLV vs. Georgia

No offense, but that is more interesting...but also probably an unfair edge for Georgia.  So under my proposal where the top 4 conference champs get byes, but then they are seeded by their actual ranking, you would get the same first round games, but then, quarterfinals would be...

Ohio State vs. UNLV
Texas vs. Miami
Georgia vs. Ole Miss
Oregon vs. Illinois

Also better than what we got, and also fairer
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2025, 01:52:37 PM
Bowl Week 2

DECEMBER 13.
LAWashington State d. Colorado State
DECEMBER 16
VETERANSSouthern Miss d. Bowling Green
DECEMBER 17
CUREAppalachian State d. South Florida
68 VENTURESLouisiana d. Central Michigan
DECEMBER 19
MYRTLE BEACHNavy d. Georgia Southern
GASPARILLALSU d. Florida State
CFP#8 MINNESOTA d. #9 Notre Dame
DECEMBER 20
CFP#5 ILLINOIS d. #17 James Madison
CFP#6 Ole Miss d. #16 UNLV
CFP#7 PENN STATE d. #15 Miami
DECEMBER 22
POTATOBoise State d. Ohio
DECEMBER 23
BOCA RATONMarshall d. Toledo
NEW ORLEANSSouth Alabama d. Louisiana Tech
FRISCOUTEP d. Rice
DECEMBER 24
HAWAIIFlorida Atlantic d. Air Force
DECEMBER 26
SPORTSCentral Florida d. Miami(Ohio)
RATEArkansas d. TCU
FIRST RESPONDERKansas d. North Texas
DECEMBER 27
MILITARYNorth Carolina d. Army
PINSTRIPELouisville d. Oklahoma State
FENWAYVirginia d. #21 Tulane
POP-TARTSGeorgia Tech d. Kansas State
ARIZONANorthern Illinois d. San Jose State
NEW MEXICOConnecticut d. New Mexico
HOLIDAYNC State d. WASHINGTON
GATOR#18 Missouri d. #20 Boston College
TEXASSouth Carolina d. Texas Tech
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMFlorida d. Memphis
DECEMBER 30
INDEPENDENCEBYU d. Oregon State
MUSIC CITY#12 Tennessee d. #22 MICHIGAN
ALAMO#19 Houston d. USC
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#24 NEBRASKA d. #11 Oklahoma
SUNIowa State d. SMU
CITRUS#14 Alabama d. #13 INDIANA
LAS VEGASIOWA d. #25 Arizona State
COTTON#4 OREGON d. #5 ILLINOIS
JANUARY 1
ORANGE#3 Georgia d. #6 Ole Miss
ROSE#1 OHIO STATE d. #8 MINNESOTA
SUGAR#2 Texas d. #7 PENN STATE
JANUARY 2
ARMED FORCESBaylor (6-6) vs. UTSA (9-4)
LIBERTYCincinnati (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (6-6)
MAYO#10 Clemson (10-2) vs. #23 Vanderbilt (8-4)
JANUARY 8
FIESTA#1 OHIO STATE (14-0) vs. #4 OREGON (12-2)
JANUARY 9
PEACH#2 Texas (12-2) vs. #3 Georgia (12-2)
JANUARY 19
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2025, 01:53:49 PM
Cool, OSU-Oregon 2.0 and Texas-Georgia 3.0
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 01:54:52 PM
Ah so we're getting the Texas-Georgia 3-peat scenario in this simulation.  Great...

Have Ohio State and Oregon already played?  Once?  Twice?
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 01:55:46 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 20, 2025, 01:53:49 PM
Cool, OSU-Oregon 2.0 and Texas-Georgia 3.0
It'll be really great if we get Texas-OSU 2.0 in the final!!!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2025, 01:56:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 01:54:52 PM
Ah so we're getting the Texas-Georgia 3-peat scenario in this simulation.  Great...

Have Ohio State and Oregon already played?  Once?  Twice?
And Texas-Georgia in the same "neutral" stadium in Georgia for the second time in a month.

Oregon-OSU once in Indy and once in the desert
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 01:57:31 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 20, 2025, 01:56:26 PM
And Texas-Georgia in the same "neutral" stadium in Georgia for the second time in a month.

Oregon-OSU once in Indy and once in the desert
Cool, cool.  So all three games will have been played in Georgia.  Seems totally fair!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 20, 2025, 02:04:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 01:55:46 PM
It'll be really great if we get Texas-OSU 2.0 in the final!!!
As a fan of Ohio State obviously I'd be happy if Ohio State made the CG for a second consecutive season but:

Just seems so strange.  

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2025, 02:04:44 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 01:57:31 PM
Cool, cool.  So all three games will have been played in Georgia.  Seems totally fair!
***Googles where OSU-Texas playoff game was last year***
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 02:13:46 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 20, 2025, 02:04:44 PM
***Googles where OSU-Texas playoff game was last year***
If it were 3 times in a row I suppose that might be relevant?  Where was the OSU-Tennessee playoff game played?
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2025, 02:27:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 02:13:46 PM
If it were 3 times in a row I suppose that might be relevant?  Where was the OSU-Tennessee playoff game played?
Well yeah, first round you earn home field advantage.  The quarterfinal, semifinal and championship games will always be played in the south
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 02:27:44 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 20, 2025, 02:04:37 PM
As a fan of Ohio State obviously I'd be happy if Ohio State made the CG for a second consecutive season but:

  • Ohio State playing Oregon twice in one season both neutral site once B1GCG in Indy, once Fiesta in Arizona.  Plus that makes four times in what, 15 months in Eugene, Pasadena, Indianapolis, and Phoenix. 
  • Ohio State playing Texas twice in one season and three times in 13 months in Arlington, Columbus, and wherever this year's NC is. 
  • Texas playing Georgia thrice in one season and five times in what, 15 months in Austin, Atlanta, Athens, Atlanta, Atlanta
Just seems so strange. 


Seems like the NFL to me.  

Yay
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 02:32:39 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 20, 2025, 02:27:37 PM
Well yeah, first round you earn home field advantage.  The quarterfinal, semifinal and championship games will always be played in the south
Sure, but if this very scenario comes to pass, playing "in the south" isn't going to help Texas one bit.  There are no Texas fans in Georgia. 

Even if you remove the Bulldogs from the equation and Texas ends up playing the SEC CCG against LSU or Tennessee or Alabama, and a CFP game in Atlanta against Ohio State, that's not going to give Texas any advantage.  Texas has no friends in Georgia and if anything, I suspect neutral locals will pull against the Longhorns in any stadium outside the Lone Star State.

"The South" is hardly monolithic.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2025, 02:39:13 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/rWooio1.png)

hah!
Sorry AfroMan - solid undeniable proof that there is a God!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2025, 02:47:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2025, 02:32:39 PM
Sure, but if this very scenario comes to pass, playing "in the south" isn't going to help Texas one bit.  There are no Texas fans in Georgia. 

Even if you remove the Bulldogs from the equation and Texas ends up playing the SEC CCG against LSU or Tennessee or Alabama, and a CFP game in Atlanta against Ohio State, that's not going to give Texas any advantage.  Texas has no friends in Georgia and if anything, I suspect neutral locals will pull against the Longhorns in any stadium outside the Lone Star State.

"The South" is hardly monolithic.
No, not that Texas would have an advantage there.  Just that the "neutral site" games are going to be in Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona, California, so I have little sympathy considering their fans will almost always have the travel advantage.

It is weird that we've kept these linked to the bowls.  The bowls were all in travel destinations, because they were end of the year exhibitions.  Now that it's part of the playoffs, it makes no sense.  It's not like college basketball puts the entire tournament in warm weather destinations.  in fact, if anything, they are TOO generous with spreading the games around, by continuing to put to many games out west.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2025, 04:49:03 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 20, 2025, 02:39:13 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/rWooio1.png)

hah!
Sorry AfroMan - solid undeniable proof that there is a God!
And he works for ReliaQuest
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 20, 2025, 04:51:35 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 20, 2025, 02:47:16 PM
It is weird that we've kept these linked to the bowls.  The bowls were all in travel destinations, because they were end of the year exhibitions.  Now that it's part of the playoffs, it makes no sense.  It's not like college basketball puts the entire tournament in warm weather destinations.  in fact, if anything, they are TOO generous with spreading the games around, by continuing to put to many games out west.
I've been beating that drum for years.  There are ALWAYS too many Western sites.  The non-western #4 and #5 seeds get screwed.  
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2025, 07:31:46 AM
One aspect of facing UGA in the MB dome is that they play there fairly often, so their players who have been with the team have a slightly better understanding of the roof, visibility, etc., aside from fans.  They play Tech there this season, they fairly often play the first game there.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2025, 02:11:34 PM
Bowl Week 3

DECEMBER 13.
LAWashington State d. Colorado State
DECEMBER 16
VETERANSSouthern Miss d. Bowling Green
DECEMBER 17
CUREAppalachian State d. South Florida
68 VENTURESLouisiana d. Central Michigan
DECEMBER 19
MYRTLE BEACHNavy d. Georgia Southern
GASPARILLALSU d. Florida State
CFP#8 MINNESOTA d. #9 Notre Dame
DECEMBER 20
CFP#5 ILLINOIS d. #17 James Madison
CFP#6 Ole Miss d. #16 UNLV
CFP#7 PENN STATE d. #15 Miami
DECEMBER 22
POTATOBoise State d. Ohio
DECEMBER 23
BOCA RATONMarshall d. Toledo
NEW ORLEANSSouth Alabama d. Louisiana Tech
FRISCOUTEP d. Rice
DECEMBER 24
HAWAIIFlorida Atlantic d. Air Force
DECEMBER 26
SPORTSCentral Florida d. Miami(Ohio)
RATEArkansas d. TCU
FIRST RESPONDERKansas d. North Texas
DECEMBER 27
MILITARYNorth Carolina d. Army
PINSTRIPELouisville d. Oklahoma State
FENWAYVirginia d. #21 Tulane
POP-TARTSGeorgia Tech d. Kansas State
ARIZONANorthern Illinois d. San Jose State
NEW MEXICOConnecticut d. New Mexico
HOLIDAYNC State d. WASHINGTON
GATOR#18 Missouri d. #20 Boston College
TEXASSouth Carolina d. Texas Tech
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMFlorida d. Memphis
DECEMBER 30
INDEPENDENCEBYU d. Oregon State
MUSIC CITY#12 Tennessee d. #22 MICHIGAN
ALAMO#19 Houston d. USC
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#24 NEBRASKA d. #11 Oklahoma
SUNIowa State d. SMU
CITRUS#14 Alabama d. #13 INDIANA
LAS VEGASIOWA d. #25 Arizona State
COTTON#4 OREGON d. #5 ILLINOIS
JANUARY 1
ORANGE#3 Georgia d. #6 Ole Miss
ROSE#1 OHIO STATE d. #8 MINNESOTA
SUGAR#2 Texas d. #7 PENN STATE
JANUARY 2
ARMED FORCESBaylor (6-6) vs. UTSA (9-4)
LIBERTYCincinnati (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (6-6)
MAYO#10 Clemson (10-2) vs. #23 Vanderbilt (8-4)
JANUARY 8
FIESTA#1 OHIO STATE d. #4 OREGON
JANUARY 9
PEACH#3 Georgia d. #2 Texas
JANUARY 19
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP#1 OHIO STATE (15-0) vs. #3 Georgia (13-2)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2025, 02:14:01 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 21, 2025, 02:11:34 PM
JANUARY 9
PEACH#3 Georgia d. #2 Texas


This whole thing is complete BULLSHIT!  Horns had to play the Bulldogs 3 times, all in the state of Georgia.  I cry foul!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2025, 02:16:11 PM
Definitely the most impressive 3 loss season, considering 4 games were against the national championship participants, none at home
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2025, 02:27:23 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 20, 2025, 02:47:16 PM
It's not like college basketball puts the entire tournament in warm weather destinations.  in fact, if anything, they are TOO generous with spreading the games around, by continuing to put to many games out west.
I wanted to come back to this because the too many games out west thing has been a pet peeve of mine for years so I started tracking it so I can put data behind this statement.  This is definitively NOT just a feeling that you and I and some others share, it is an absolute fact.  I track it by timezone.  In the last 21 tournaments (2004-2025 but no 2020 due to COVID) the top-4 seeds have come from:

The MST and PST timezones have so few top-4 seeds that they really need to be combined and here is what you get:

So what did they do in 2025:
Where were the top-4 seeds from in 2025, fairly typical:
So, as per usual, the eastern #4 and #5 seeds got screwed because there weren't enough eastern sites:
In the South Regional:
West Regional:
East Regional:
Midwest Regional:

It is in the nature of a tournament like this with sites selected in advance that sometimes some schools will get an undeserved geographic disadvantage so that part doesn't bother me.  Also, it is at least theoretically in the power of the schools in question to avoid that by getting themselves seeded higher.  What bothers me is that they KNOW better and screw the eastern schools anyway.  The data that I provided isn't hard to find and the schools in the EST and CST earn enough high bids to justify putting seven of the eight first/second round sites in those two time zones.  The NCAA either knows this or *SHOULD* know it so they aught to do exactly that but instead they consistently put two and sometimes three first/second round sites out west where there are almost never enough top-4 seeds to justify two sites.  
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: SFBadger96 on August 21, 2025, 02:30:54 PM
If the season turns out like this, SFGopher will have a hell of a freshman year as a football fan. Not unlike mine as a sophomore.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2025, 02:33:59 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 21, 2025, 02:16:11 PM
Definitely the most impressive 3 loss season, considering 4 games were against the national championship participants, none at home
Am I right that in this simulation:

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2025, 02:49:47 PM
Ya gotta admit, the prospect of have THREE Texas-UGA games, all in the state of Georgia is .... weird.

It would mean "we" pull even with them all time, I think.  Texas still has work to do with Vandy.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2025, 02:52:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2025, 02:49:47 PM
Ya gotta admit, the prospect of have THREE Texas-UGA games, all in the state of Georgia is .... weird.

It would mean "we" pull even with them all time, I think.  Texas still has work to do with Vandy.

Gotta beat 'em 4 more times in a row just to even up the series.  Last year's win in Nashville was super-important!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2025, 02:52:33 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on August 21, 2025, 02:30:54 PM
If the season turns out like this, SFGopher will have a hell of a freshman year as a football fan. Not unlike mine as a sophomore.
I was just looking at Minnesota's schedule (for unrelated reasons, because I'm thinking of taking a kid or two to the MN/tOSU game).  Here it is:
Minnesota Golden Gophers Schedule 2025
202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032025

Regular Season
DATEOPPONENTTIMETVtickets
Thu, Aug 28vs
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2084.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2084/buffalo-bulls)
Buffalo (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2084/buffalo-bulls)		8:00 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752793/buffalo-minnesota)FS1Tickets as low as $20  (https://www.vividseats.com/minnesota-golden-gophers-football-tickets-huntington-bank-stadium-8-28-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5408894?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Sat, Sep 6vs
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2466.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2466/northwestern-state-demons)
Northwestern State (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2466/northwestern-state-demons)		12:00 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752813/nwestern-st-minnesota)BTNTickets as low as $17  (https://www.vividseats.com/minnesota-golden-gophers-football-tickets-huntington-bank-stadium-9-6-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5416713?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Sat, Sep 13@
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/25.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/25/california-golden-bears)
California (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/25/california-golden-bears)		10:30 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752840/minnesota-california) (https://www.espn.com/watch/player/_/eventCalendarId/401752840)

 (https://www.espn.com/watch/player/_/eventCalendarId/401752840)
(https://a.espncdn.com/guid/335fd2d2-97b9-336b-81ee-573eb6bdcffc/logos/default.png)
 (https://www.espn.com/watch/player/_/eventCalendarId/401752840)		Tickets as low as $25  (https://www.vividseats.com/california-golden-bears-football-tickets-california-memorial-stadium-9-13-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5408075?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Sat, Sep 27vs
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/164.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/164/rutgers-scarlet-knights)
Rutgers (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/164/rutgers-scarlet-knights)		TBD (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752849/rutgers-minnesota)Tickets as low as $48  (https://www.vividseats.com/minnesota-golden-gophers-football-tickets-huntington-bank-stadium-6-4-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5386497?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Sat, Oct 4@
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/194.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/194/ohio-state-buckeyes)
3 Ohio State (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/194/ohio-state-buckeyes)		TBD (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752859/minnesota-ohio-state)Tickets as low as $115  (https://www.vividseats.com/ohio-state-buckeyes-football-tickets-ohio-stadium-6-1-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5385413?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Sat, Oct 11vs
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2509.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2509/purdue-boilermakers)
Purdue (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2509/purdue-boilermakers)		TBD (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752864/purdue-minnesota)Tickets as low as $49  (https://www.vividseats.com/minnesota-golden-gophers-football-tickets-huntington-bank-stadium-6-3-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5386496?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Fri, Oct 17vs
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/158.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/158/nebraska-cornhuskers)
Nebraska (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/158/nebraska-cornhuskers)		8:00 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752872/nebraska-minnesota)FOXTickets as low as $111  (https://www.vividseats.com/minnesota-golden-gophers-football-tickets-huntington-bank-stadium-6-2-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5386495?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Sat, Oct 25@
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2294.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2294/iowa-hawkeyes)
Iowa (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2294/iowa-hawkeyes)		TBD (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752882/minnesota-iowa)Tickets as low as $125  (https://www.vividseats.com/iowa-hawkeyes-football-tickets-kinnick-stadium-6-3-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5386346?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Sat, Nov 1vs
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/127.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/127/michigan-state-spartans)
Michigan State (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/127/michigan-state-spartans)		TBD (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752888/michigan-st-minnesota)Tickets as low as $55  (https://www.vividseats.com/minnesota-golden-gophers-football-tickets-huntington-bank-stadium-6-1-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5386492?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Fri, Nov 14@
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2483.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2483/oregon-ducks)
7 Oregon (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2483/oregon-ducks)		9:00 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752904/minnesota-oregon)FOXTickets as low as $41  (https://www.vividseats.com/oregon-ducks-football-tickets-autzen-stadium-6-2-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5385389?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Sat, Nov 22@
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/77.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/77/northwestern-wildcats)
Northwestern (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/77/northwestern-wildcats)		TBD (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752909/minnesota-northwestern)Tickets as low as $75  (https://www.vividseats.com/northwestern-wildcats-football-tickets-northwestern-medicine-field-at-martin-stadium-6-2-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5386614?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)
Sat, Nov 29vs
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/275.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/275/wisconsin-badgers)
Wisconsin (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/275/wisconsin-badgers)		TBD (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752918/wisconsin-minnesota)Tickets as low as $84 (https://www.vividseats.com/minnesota-golden-gophers-football-tickets-huntington-bank-stadium-6-5-2025--sports-ncaa-football/production/5386501?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~college-football~team-schedule,college-football,en)

My thought is that the season hinges not on the tOSU and Oregon games but on a pair of consecutive mid-season games that could go either way.  My thinking is that the Gophers are VERY unlikely to win in either Columbus or Eugene as both of those are road games against preseason top-7 teams.  However, with what I know about the team they should win the first three home games and probably also the game at Berkley (are you going to that one?)  They also should beat Purdue at home and lose in Columbus so they *should* be 5-1 in mid-October with the only loss being to what will likely be a top-10ish Ohio State.  That should get them pretty solidly ranked.  

Within this simulation @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) has them ranked #17 at 5-1 following a win over Purdue.  The next two games, IMHO, are the key to their season.  Both Nebraska at home and Iowa on the road are games where I could see it going either way for the Gophers and the difference between 2-0 and 0-2 is stark.  In this simulation they win both and ascend to #7 at 7-1.  Then they beat MSU (up to #6), have a week off (stay at #6), and head to Eugene for a top-6 matchup with League and National Title implications.  That #4/6 game in Eugene would get Gameday except that:
Even with the loss in Eugene the Gophers still finish 10-2/7-2, tied for third in the B1G, and hosting a CFP game.  

Lose those two (vs UNL, at IA) and it is a completely different story.  Unless they pull off an upset in Eugene they can do no better than 8-4/5-4 completely out of the league title race and not even in the CFP conversation.  What do you think?  
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2025, 02:54:35 PM
You do excellent stuff, better than anyone on ESPiN.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2025, 03:45:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2025, 02:54:35 PM
You do excellent stuff, better than anyone on ESPiN.
Almost Dave Portnoy quality
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2025, 03:47:12 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2025, 02:33:59 PM
Am I right that in this simulation:
  • Georgia is 2-1 against Texas with a win in Athens, loss in the SECCG in ATL, and win in the CFP Semi-Final in ATL?
  • Ohio State is 2-0 against Oregon with win in the B1GCG in Indianapolis and a win in the CFP Semi-Final in PHX? 
  • Texas finishes 12+3 with a road loss to each NC participant and a split of "neutral site" games against UGA in Georgia? 


Correct.  With the new seeding we are just going to see a glut of Big Ten/SEC teams, and a lot of rematches.  They really overcompensated for their initial seeding mistake, and now we have this
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2025, 03:52:20 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 21, 2025, 03:45:47 PM
Almost Dave Portnoy quality
I'm chuckling.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2025, 03:53:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2025, 02:54:35 PM
You do excellent stuff, better than anyone on ESPiN.
LoL, thanks.  

I also should point out that I think Minnesota's schedule looks like it could be a great example of something that @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) and I were discussing a while back, their H/A split is particularly favorable because three of their four B1G road games are against teams where HFA is very unlikely to make a meaningful difference:
The only league road game where I *think* HFA might matter is the Iowa game where I'd be a lot more confident about Minnesota's chances if that game was in the Twin Cities rather than Iowa City.  As I see it, Minnesota's league games in which HFA is most likely to matter are the games against Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin and the Gophers get two of those three at home.  That should help them.  
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2025, 06:39:28 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 21, 2025, 03:45:47 PM
Almost Dave Portnoy quality
I don't know who this is & I don't want to, apparently
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2025, 09:29:51 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2025, 06:39:28 PM
I don't know who this is & I don't want to, apparently
Imagine if Trev Alberts had a smartphone 
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: GopherRock on August 21, 2025, 11:46:00 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2025, 03:53:24 PM
LoL, thanks. 

I also should point out that I think Minnesota's schedule looks like it could be a great example of something that @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) and I were discussing a while back, their H/A split is particularly favorable because three of their four B1G road games are against teams where HFA is very unlikely to make a meaningful difference:
  • They'd probably lose to Ohio State no matter where the game was played. 
  • They'd probably lose to Oregon no matter where the game was played. 
  • They'd probably beat Northwestern no matter where the game was played. 
The only league road game where I *think* HFA might matter is the Iowa game where I'd be a lot more confident about Minnesota's chances if that game was in the Twin Cities rather than Iowa City.  As I see it, Minnesota's league games in which HFA is most likely to matter are the games against Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin and the Gophers get two of those three at home.  That should help them. 

One potential pitfall is that PJ'S teams are notoriously slow starters, spitting up a September game that they have no business letting the opponent hang around.

The magical 2019 season very nearly didn't get off the ground if not for a late night Antoine Winfield interception in OT. Bowling Green.

BTW that Northwestern game on November 20 is at Wrigley. I'll be there, as well as in Berkeley on Week 3.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2025, 08:48:54 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2025, 06:39:28 PM
I don't know who this is & I don't want to, apparently
He was the dude with a complaint.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2025, 09:07:42 AM
don't know what he was complaining about but, My advice would be to shut your pie hole
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2025, 12:24:34 PM
Bowl Week 4

DECEMBER 13.
LAWashington State d. Colorado State
DECEMBER 16
VETERANSSouthern Miss d. Bowling Green
DECEMBER 17
CUREAppalachian State d. South Florida
68 VENTURESLouisiana d. Central Michigan
DECEMBER 19
MYRTLE BEACHNavy d. Georgia Southern
GASPARILLALSU d. Florida State
CFP#8 MINNESOTA d. #9 Notre Dame
DECEMBER 20
CFP#5 ILLINOIS d. #17 James Madison
CFP#6 Ole Miss d. #16 UNLV
CFP#7 PENN STATE d. #15 Miami
DECEMBER 22
POTATOBoise State d. Ohio
DECEMBER 23
BOCA RATONMarshall d. Toledo
NEW ORLEANSSouth Alabama d. Louisiana Tech
FRISCOUTEP d. Rice
DECEMBER 24
HAWAIIFlorida Atlantic d. Air Force
DECEMBER 26
SPORTSCentral Florida d. Miami(Ohio)
RATEArkansas d. TCU
FIRST RESPONDERKansas d. North Texas
DECEMBER 27
MILITARYNorth Carolina d. Army
PINSTRIPELouisville d. Oklahoma State
FENWAYVirginia d. #21 Tulane
POP-TARTSGeorgia Tech d. Kansas State
ARIZONANorthern Illinois d. San Jose State
NEW MEXICOConnecticut d. New Mexico
HOLIDAYNC State d. WASHINGTON
GATOR#18 Missouri d. #20 Boston College
TEXASSouth Carolina d. Texas Tech
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMFlorida d. Memphis
DECEMBER 30
INDEPENDENCEBYU d. Oregon State
MUSIC CITY#12 Tennessee d. #22 MICHIGAN
ALAMO#19 Houston d. USC
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#24 NEBRASKA d. #11 Oklahoma
SUNIowa State d. SMU
CITRUS#14 Alabama d. #13 INDIANA
LAS VEGASIOWA d. #25 Arizona State
COTTON#4 OREGON d. #5 ILLINOIS
JANUARY 1
ORANGE#3 Georgia d. #6 Ole Miss
ROSE#1 OHIO STATE d. #8 MINNESOTA
SUGAR#2 Texas d. #7 PENN STATE
JANUARY 2
ARMED FORCESBaylor (6-6) vs. UTSA (9-4)
LIBERTYCincinnati (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (6-6)
MAYO#10 Clemson (10-2) vs. #23 Vanderbilt (8-4)
JANUARY 8
FIESTA#1 OHIO STATE d. #4 OREGON
JANUARY 9
PEACH#3 Georgia d. #2 Texas
JANUARY 19
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP#1 OHIO STATE d. #3 Georgia
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 22, 2025, 12:26:11 PM
Wow, B1G homer season model produces B1G national champion.  Yawn.

Just kidding AAA, thanks for doing this every year, it's always a lot of fun.





(My team still got jobbed, though)

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2025, 12:30:31 PM
I think Ohio State has never defeated UGA.  Yet.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: SFBadger96 on August 22, 2025, 12:46:09 PM
Love the exercise, hate the outcome...

This is the time of year that the blue bloods are all at their best. We'll see. I'm kind of pulling for Arizona State. But I think ASU is ranked as it is primarily because of what it was at the end of the year last year, not because of any real deep dive into what its team is like now. 

Unfortunately, the random bounce, quirky, well-timed play, and indescribable disasters that used to play an outsized role in how we determined national champions are probably permanently thrown in the dustbin of history. It probably will be the blue bloods who routinely make the final few games of the playoffs going forward.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 22, 2025, 12:50:47 PM
ASU is good, that QB is the real deal.  There's a reason they took Texas to OT in the playoffs last year.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: SFBadger96 on August 22, 2025, 12:51:38 PM
Go Sparky!!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 22, 2025, 12:53:54 PM
I like ASU, always have. @DevilFroggy (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=35) is likely pleased with the current state of the program.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2025, 01:03:29 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 22, 2025, 12:50:47 PM
ASU is good, that QB is the real deal.  There's a reason they took Texas to OT in the playoffs last year.
:96:
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2025, 01:04:02 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on August 22, 2025, 12:46:09 PM
Unfortunately, the random bounce, quirky, well-timed play, and indescribable disasters that used to play an outsized role in how we determined national champions are probably permanently thrown in the dustbin of history. It probably will be the blue bloods who routinely make the final few games of the playoffs going forward.
Yup
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2025, 01:09:38 PM
Which programs will dominate the NC in the coming years, or rather, which not on that list might break through?

Most would not have had Oregon on such a list 20 years ago, nor Clemson, we would have had USC and probably Nebraska.  What about Arizona State?  Boise State?  Washington?  UNC?
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 22, 2025, 01:15:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2025, 12:30:31 PM
I think Ohio State has never defeated UGA.  Yet.
They haven't but there have been surprisingly few games and the two were both pretty good.  

Georgia beat Ohio State 21-14 in the Citrus Bowl on January 1, 1993.  I vaguely remember watching that game (I was a SR in HS).  Georgia scored a TD in the first quarter and Ohio State answered in the second quarter for a 7-7 tie at halftime.  The teams traded TD's in the third quarter and headed to the fourth knotted up at 14-14.  The Bulldogs got close to the red zone but a sack and fumble gave the Buckeyes the ball.  The Buckeyes got to the UGA 15 yard line but a misheard audible led to a backfield collision and the Buckeyes fumbled back to Georgia.  Georgia scored a TD and held on for the win.  

That season:
Georgia:
Georgia tied Florida for the SEC-E Championship at 6-2 but lost the H2H tiebreaker due to having lost the WLOCP to the Gators.  Georgia's other loss was to Tennessee and the Vols finished third in the SEC-E at 5-3.  Florida lost the SECCG to eventual NC Bama.  

Ohio State:
The Buckeyes finished second in the Big Ten.  It was a distant second to Michigan but the Buckeyes did tie the Wolverines in Columbus.  That was Michigan's "year of the tie" as they also tied Illinois and Notre Dame and ultimately finished the year 9-0-3.  Ohio State had two early losses to mediocre teams (at UW, vs IL) then rattled off five straight wins before the tie with Michigan.  

Rankings:
Georgia was #8 going into the game and stayed #8 with the win.  Ohio State was #15 going into the game and dropped to #15 with the loss.  That is a pet peeve of mine and makes no sense.  One would expect #15 to lose to #8 and it was a competitive game so why did they drop?  

Georgia started the year at #14 and dropped to #19 after their loss to Tennessee.  Then they climbed all the way to #7 before losing to Florida dropped them to #15 then they climbed to their final, #8 spot.  

Ohio State started the year at #19 and climbed to #12 before back-to-back losses dropped them to #21 and then out of the poll for a few weeks.  They got to #17 before the tie with Michigan moved them up to #15 where they stayed until the bowl loss dropped them to #18.  

Georgia beat Ohio State 42-41 right as 2022 ended on December 31, 2022.  The teams traded TD's in the first quarter then there was a whole heap of scoring in the second quarter.  Ohio State scored 14 unanswered to take a 21-7 lead then Georgia scored 17 unanswered to take a 24-21 lead and Ohio State closed out the first half scoring with a TD to take a 28-24 lead into halftime.  All-told that is 21-17 Buckeyes for the quarter.  The Ohio State TD at the end of the first half was the first 7 of what became 17 unanswered (directly after UGA's 17 unanswered) to make it 38-24 at the end of the third quarter.  UGA got a FG, a TD, and a two-point conversion to pull within 3 at 38-35.  Ohio State then kicked a FG to stretch the lead back to 6 but Gerogia answered with a TD to take a one point lead at 42-41.  Ohio State tried a 50 yard FG as both the game clock and the NYE countdown clock hit zero but missed and Georgia went to the NC where they had a laughably easy time with TCU.  

The play of the game occurred late in the third quarter with Ohio State leading by 11, 35-24.  On 3rd and goal from the UGA 7 Stroud threw to Marvin Harrison who was hit hard as the ball arrived and didn't make the catch.  The play was reviewed for Targeting but ultimately no penalties were assessed at all.  Harrison missed the rest of the game.  Ohio State kicked the FG on 4th down to take a 14 point lead that ultimately wasn't enough.  

Rankings:
Georgia was #1 going into the game, won, and won the NC against TCU to finish the year at #1.  They started #3 but they were #1 nearly all season long.  

Ohio State was #4 going into the game and finished #4.  They were #2 right behind Georgia for most of the season then lost to the cheaters (whose cheating scheme was in full effect in 2022), dropped briefly to #5 then climbed back to #4 and finished there.  
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: DevilFroggy on August 26, 2025, 12:44:33 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 22, 2025, 01:03:29 PM
:96:
I for one want to thank Jonathan Smith for ignoring the Oregon Gatorade Player of the Year while he was at Oregon State. Leavitt looks to possibly be our best QB this century.