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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 02:19:58 PM

Title: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 02:19:58 PM
Same as before.  Using the combined SP+/FPI rankings to simulate each game.

Preseason Poll Projection


Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2025, 02:24:44 PM
Man, I was really hoping for this. Thanks.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 02:43:15 PM
WEEK ZERO

Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 02:45:21 PM
Also, to make it a little fun, I always slightly adjust if you are +/- 2 in upsets to allow for over and underperforming teams
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2025, 02:46:12 PM
I predict UGA starts 2-0.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2025, 03:18:12 PM
11 from the SEC in the top 25??
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2025, 03:24:55 PM
11 from the SEC in the top 25??
Lower than usual.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2025, 03:36:10 PM
somebody believes in the Boomer Sooners
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: Mdot21 on July 30, 2025, 05:40:56 PM
man advanced metrics must really like the defense, cause Michigan at #11 is a lot higher than I'd have them.

I THINK that Michigan could rebound in a huge way, but pinning the hopes on a 17 year old true freshman QB who won't turn 18 until the season starts seems like a risky proposition. On one hand the QB play probably can't get any worse than it was last year. Having said that- true frosh QB's are prone to make mistakes- if you start him- you're just going to have to live with the growing pains as he figures it out and that might cost you some games.

Defense should be lights out and very deep- and probably even better in year 2 of Wink Martindale's scheme. RB duo should be top tier with Jordan Marshall & Justice Haynes. OL should improve some- RT Andrew Sprague is a budding superstar future 1st rd tackle imo. They lost Colston Loveland but Marlin Klein is an up and comer who has proven he can play at this level and they have lots of young emerging TE talent and have recruited well at the position. WR is the biggest ? on the entire offense outside of QB imo.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 05:44:54 PM
WEEK ONE
Thursday, August 28


Friday, August 29


Saturday, August 30
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbus, OH



Sunday, August 31

Monday, September 1
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 05:51:45 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/DLXZPDN.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/fuBBlYA.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/is47NlZ.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2025, 06:04:44 PM
SEPTEMBER 2 POLL



Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2025, 10:35:40 AM
WEEK 2
Friday, September 5
#24 Boise State d. Eastern Washington

James Madison d. Louisville
MARYLAND d. Northern Illinois
NORTHWESTERN d. Western Illinois

Saturday, September 6
ESPN College Gameday, live from Norman, OK
#22 Oklahoma d. #9 MICHIGAN

#1 OHIO STATE d. Grambling
#2 OREGON d. Oklahoma State
#3 Georgia d. Austin Peay
#5 Texas d. San Jose State
#6 PENN STATE d. FIU
#7 Alabama d. UL Monroe
#8 Clemson d. Troy
#10 ILLINOIS d. Duke
#11 Texas A&M d. Utah State
#12 Tennessee d. East Tennessee State
#13 LSU d. Louisiana Tech
#14 Ole Miss d. Kentucky
#15 Miami d. Bethune-Cookman
#16 South Carolina d. SC State
Mississippi State d. #17 Arizona State
#18 Missouri d. Kansas
#19 SMU d. Baylor
#20 Florida d. South Florida
#21 Kansas State d. Army
#23 INDIANA d. Kennesaw State
#25 Arkansas d. Arkansas State

Appalachian State d. Lindenwood
Arizona d. Weber State
Auburn d. Ball State
Buffalo d. St. Francis(PA)
BYU d. Stanford
California d. Texas Southern
Central Florida d. North Carolina A&T
Coastal Carolina d. Charleston Southern
Colorado d. Delaware
Colorado State d. Northern Colorado
Connecticut d. Syracuse
East Carolina d. Campbell
Eastern Michigan d. Long Island
Florida Atlantic d. Florida A&M
Florida State d. East Texas A&M
Georgia Tech d. Gardner-Webb
Iowa State d. IOWA
Liberty d. Jacksonville State
Louisiana d. McNeese
Marshall d. Missouri State
Massachusetts d. Bryant
Memphis d. Georgia State
MICHIGAN STATE d. Boston College
Mississippi State d. Arizona State
MINNESOTA d. Northwestern State
Navy d. UAB
NEBRASKA d. Akron
Nevada d. Sacramento State
New Mexico d. Idaho State
NM State d. Tulsa
North Carolina d. Charlotte
North Texas d. Western Michigan
Ohio d. West Virginia
Old Dominion d. NC Central
Oregon State d. Fresno State
Pittsburgh d. Central Michigan
PURDUE d. Southern Illinois
Rice d. Houston
RUTGERS d. Miami(Ohio)
Sam Houston d. Hawaii
South Alabama d. Tulane
Southern Miss d. Jackson State
Temple d. Howard
Texas Tech d. Kent State
Toledo d. Western Kentucky
USC d. Georgia Southern
UNLV d. UCLA
Utah d. Cal Poly
UTEP d. UT Martin
UTSA d. Texas State
Vanderbilt d. Virginia Tech
Virginia d. NC State
Wake Forest d. Western Carolina
WASHINGTON d. UC Davis
Washington State d. San Diego State
WISCONSIN d. Western Kentucky
Wyoming d. Northern Iowa
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: utee94 on July 31, 2025, 10:37:39 AM

Saturday, August 30
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbus, OH
  • #1 OHIO STATE d. #2 Texas
This entire thing is BULLSHIT, man!
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2025, 10:55:43 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/72ikHNz.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/r3GMHqA.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/S3S9TNE.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2025, 11:08:46 AM
SEPTEMBER 7 POLL
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 31, 2025, 11:16:16 AM
Bama has an eight week stretch where they play six teams projected to be ranked and a team that beat them last year.  That is rough.  
(https://i.imgur.com/pQg5ahl.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: jgvol on July 31, 2025, 12:00:06 PM
Bama has an eight week stretch where they play six teams projected to be ranked and a team that beat them last year.  That is rough. 
(https://i.imgur.com/pQg5ahl.png)


What a shame.  My heart hurts for them.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: SFBadger96 on July 31, 2025, 12:03:01 PM
And Wisconsin! Reading the beat reporters right now has convinced me Bama better not sleep on the new-look Badgers! :-)

/sarcasm (mostly)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 31, 2025, 02:35:05 PM
What a shame.  My heart hurts for them.
I'm sure you won't shed any tears for @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) 's Gators either but this 5-week stretch is pretty rough as well:
(https://i.imgur.com/CyfeyIN.png)
It doesn't get much easier for them.  After that they get MissSt at home then a week off then #4 in the WLOCP, at UK, and at #15 OleMiss.  Then they host your #14 Volunteers.  
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 31, 2025, 02:40:20 PM
I made this table based on @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's projected preseason poll from above, if I missed anything please let me know and I'll add it:
(https://i.imgur.com/nYWiHkM.png)

One interesting thing that I noticed in putting this together is that the neutral site game in Dublin, Ireland on August 23 between Kansas State and Iowa State might be easy to overlook but it could have a major impact in determining which B12 team makes the playoffs.  The B12 only has three ranked teams:

The top-2 do NOT play each other so the key games are KSU/ISU in Dublin in "week 0" and ASU/ISU in Ames on November 1. 
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2025, 02:41:48 PM
And Wisconsin! Reading the beat reporters right now has convinced me Bama better not sleep on the new-look Badgers! :-)

/sarcasm (mostly)
(https://i.imgur.com/7GtRk1u.png)
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: SFBadger96 on July 31, 2025, 06:26:52 PM
4-0 headed into the first break.
Title: Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2025, 07:52:39 PM
Wow, didn't realize the cake walk Kansas State had to the Big XII Championship

I will say, the predictive metrics do love Texas Tech, so that might be the wrench