CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on July 15, 2025, 09:05:37 PM
-
BALL STATE --- W (82%)
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS --- W (88%)
USC --- L (19%)
@Notre Dame --- L (3%)
ILLINOIS --- L (30%)
@Minnesota --- L (12%)
@Northwestern --- L (36%)
RUTGERS --- L (33%)
@Michigan --- L (3%)
OSU --- L (2%)
@Washington --- L (15%)
INDIANA --- L (15%)
Straight up (0-9, 2-10), but weighted O/U 3.5 wins
-
Those first 2 seem guaranteed, so to me it's whether you see 2 more wins. I'd take the over, but that's a rough schedule
-
(https://i.imgur.com/fMYIws2.png)
-
Over.
-
under
-
Gonna go under here, but it's close. The big problem is that the most winnable games are on the road. Maybe they'll spring a home upset against one of Illinois, Rutgers, USC or Indiana. Then they have to steal a road game against either Northwestern or Minnesota.
-
2-10
-
The teams at the margins (the ones you are starting with) are so difficult to predict because all or nearly all of the upsets go the same way.
What I mean is that tOSU's straight up prediction is 12-0 and weighted is a little under 11-1 so the O/U is already projecting one upset. The Buckeyes can't have any positive upsets and the 11-1 mark already builds in one negative upset. There is no offset. Similar for Purdue here: Straight up is 2-10 and the weighted prediction of 4-8 already builds in two upsets but additional upsets would almost all be positive.
When you look at a team projected to go 6-6 you can guesstimate that if they are involved in four upsets it will be two up and two down and they'll still be 6-6 just with two unexpected wins over better teams and two unexpected losses to worse teams.
I'm going under for Purdue just because that schedule including HFA is brutal. I'd feel a lot better about 5-7 if they got NU and UDub at home but with those as road-trips that doesn't leave a lot of reasonable opportunities to pick up a win.
-
Over