CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on July 15, 2025, 06:41:21 PM
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I'll do 2 of these each week, with the top and bottom.
Once SP+ puts in their week by week chances I'll go to that, but now we have Massey...
TEXAS --- W (0.76)
GRAMBLING --- W (1)
OHIO --- W (1)
@Washington --- W (0.91)
MINNESOTA --- W (0.95)
@Illinois --- W (0.92)
@Wisconsin --- W (0.92)
PSU --- W (0.75)
@Purdue --- W (0.98)
UCLA --- W (0.97)
RUTGERS --- W (0.96)
@Michigan --- W (0.72)
12-0 based on W/L, but based on win probability it's 10.84
So make your picks on O/U 11 wins
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(https://i.imgur.com/bvGLkEF.png)
I just don’t see a loss in that schedule. Maybe Texas in week 1, but not with a new QB starting on the road.
If Texas wins at Ohio Stadium they’re my favorite to win the NC.
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Probably over. But it is tasty thinking on that Texas game.
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11 feels like a don't touch. I can't imagine them going 10-2 with that schedule, but I'd never bet on a team going 12-0.
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(https://i.imgur.com/3a2PrhE.png)
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Texas is an L much of the Buckeyes stable of stalwarts have moved on. Can't replace that experience and chemistry even with raw talent coming in. Horns bringing back a lot with an axe to grind and are 1-0 in the 'Shoe ('05) they went on to win it all that year. Perhaps history repeats itself and IMO tOSU will drop at least another,perhaps the Ninnies,Huskies or the Walvies. So 10-2
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The Penn State Squad is for real this year. I also think Michigan will be legit this year and obviously Texas.
Combine that with a brand, new quarterback, and historically that’s not a great recipe. It generally leads to inconsistency. I will go under.
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Under.
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The Buckeyes are breaking in a new QB this year. Always makes things dicey early on in the season.
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The Buckeyes are breaking in a new QB this year. Always makes things dicey early on in the season.
yeah, they are not only breaking in a new rs frosh QB, but they are also breaking in a new OC, new DC, and they just lost 14 players to the NFL draft. that's a lot of turnover.
I think Texas gets them game 1. Arch will be ready for his prime time break out imo and there is also the revenge factor for Texas for the playoff loss.
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Often, a top team loses one game to a near peer and suffers an upset to a nonpeer.
10-2 would be reasonable. 11-1 is more likely I think than 9-3.
I'd say the same for UGA/ND/Bama/Texas/PSU ...
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I'm gonna say under. Top end talent is great, but they whiffed hard on the spring portal window and have a major problem with DT depth. They are 1 or 2 injuries away from being a team that can't stop the run up the middle. Also, anytime there's a new QB, we can expect some rough games here and there. I wouldn't be shocked with a 2-2 start with Texas and a tough road game @Washington. On the positive side, this is the best I've felt about the OL in a long time, so if Sayin can get up to speed, the offense could really cook later in the year.
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If they start 0-1, are we gonna get more of the Bucknut-meltdowns calling for Day's head again, before they go on to win another NC?
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If they start 0-1, are we gonna get more of the Bucknut-meltdowns calling for Day's head again, before they go on to win another NC?
nah. some fans will bitch of course but it won't be insane if they start 0-1 he'll be fine so long as they get on a roll as the young QB gets acclimated....which they inevitably will start rolling with all the talent they have.
but need not worry my friend, if they lose to Michigan in Ann Arbor in November and he drops 5 in a row to Michigan the Bucknutjob meltdowns will commence in full force and Day will need a Secret Service detail when he gets back to Columbus.
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UGA a few years back managed 15-0. That is really unlikely, I think, possible, but unlikely. You'd think they probably blasted inferior opponents, but they needed a rather remarkable comeback to beat Missouri, a mediocre team, 26-22. They handled everyone else reasonably well, Kent State was about their second closest RS win at 39-22. Then of course they needed a flat miracle to beat Ohio State. So, presume they really were the "best team" that year, they could easily have been 12-1 and eliminated in round one.
You need breaks to go undefeated, some lesser teams have a shot at tripping you up.
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but need not worry my friend, if they lose to Michigan in Ann Arbor in November and he drops 5 in a row to Michigan the Bucknutjob meltdowns will commence in full force and Day will need a Secret Service detail when he gets back to Columbus.
oh just like a myopic michican miscreant on these pages referring to jeem after losing 5 straight to tOSU then chickeneing out vs tOSU while going 2-4 in 2020. Bloviating harbaugh was in concusion protocol, cognitive decline and a complete whack job. The strange thing is what about that team that didn't have good draft classes that would miraculously lead to a 3 season run of 40-3 record,hmm
(https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/567/373/9373567.jpg?width=600&fit=bounds)
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No way they win their first 12 games. Under.
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10-2
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11-1
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I see this as such a tough call. Last year's team was phenomenal in the playoffs and won the NC but they would have been under on this projection but then again, the recent history:
- 10-2 in 2024
- 11-1 in 2023
- 11-1 in 2022
- 10-2 in 2021
- Ignore 2020 due to shortened schedule/COVID
- 12-0 in 2019
- 11-1 in 2018
- 10-2 in 2017
- 11-1 in 2016
- 11-1 in 2015
- 11-1 in 2014
So in the last 10 normal seasons the Buckeyes went:
- 12-0 once
- 11-1 six times
- 10-2 three times
History says that the most likely outcome is to match the O/U of 11 with 12-0 slightly less likely then 10-2.
I'm going under because PSU should be better than they've been for most of the above history, Michigan probably won't be as good as their cheating-fueled high but also not as bad as their pre-cheating norm and Texas is a tougher than average marquee OOC game.
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0-1
Don't care beyond that. :)
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(Actually I think the Buckeyes will probably win that opening game, so much talent and the game's at home. OSU is being forced to reload at a lot of positions, but so is Texas. Likely depends on how quickly each OSU unit can ramp up under new coordinators, one thing Texas has going for it is continuity in coaching, for the time being)
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(Actually I think the Buckeyes will probably win that opening game, so much talent and the game's at home. OSU is being forced to reload at a lot of positions, but so is Texas. Likely depends on how quickly each OSU unit can ramp up under new coordinators, one thing Texas has going for it is continuity in coaching, for the time being)
Things have changed so much.
Of course I want my Buckeyes to win but it really doesn't matter. Realistically the winner will be the team that gets things together first but that is NOT necessarily the team that will be better in December/January and, if I could pick one of the two, I'd MUCH rather be better in December/January.
Twenty years ago I was in Ohio Stadium for tOSU's showdown with the Vince Young led Longhorns. That was a great game, very even, and came down to the last few minutes. The result was also VERY important. Ohio State's loss effectively eliminated them from the NC race and Texas wouldn't have gone to the BCSNCG without their win.
This year's game *MIGHT* have some impact on seeding but for the most part it is a glorified exhibition with little or no impact.
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Yeah. Hooray, playoffs.
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10-2
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The most likely results are obviously 10-2 oe 11-2, while 12-0 seems a bit more likely than 9-3, to me anyway. An 8-4 season would be viewed as, well, bad, but probably would mean a rash of injuries somewhere. Anything below that is not really very possible at all.
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The most likely results are obviously 10-2 oe 11-2, while 12-0 seems a bit more likely than 9-3, to me anyway. An 8-4 season would be viewed as, well, bad, but probably would mean a rash of injuries somewhere. Anything below that is not really very possible at all.
I think 9-3 is their worst case scenario season and 12-0 is obviously best case scenario season. neither is likely to happen imo- as for either scenario they would need either a very lot to go right to hit 12-0 or a very lot to go wrong to hit 9-3, so I think they split the diff and go like 10-2 and make the playoff.
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oh just like a myopic michican miscreant on these pages referring to jeem after losing 5 straight to tOSU then chickeneing out vs tOSU while going 2-4 in 2020. Bloviating harbaugh was in concusion protocol, cognitive decline and a complete whack job. The strange thing is what about that team that didn't have good draft classes that would miraculously lead to a 3 season run of 40-3 record,hmm
(https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/567/373/9373567.jpg?width=600&fit=bounds)
TL; DR
Only scored 10 points. Lost at home. As 3 TD favorites. To a walk-on QB who threw for 60 yards. OUCH.
hey, I'd be salty too.:)
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11-1
I'd take but I'd doubt it,Horns gonna win it all this year, or the Ducks. Not sure what the Dawgs got cooking up
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TL; DR
Only scored 10 points. Lost at home. As 3 TD favorites. To a walk-on QB who threw for 60 yards. OUCH.
hey, I'd be salty too.:)
Ya and Chip still made bank as an O.C. stepping up to Sundays. Course he had a nice little run after that
TL DR,puhleeze a 4-5 lines,COI is going to be scribbling out a lot more than that 😈
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Ya and Chip still made bank as an O.C. stepping up to Sundays. Course he had a nice little run after that
TL DR,puhleeze a 4-5 lines,COI is going to be scribbling out a lot more than that 😈
(https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1596608287931146240/pu/img/v-FB0ZAFb4FDkzpQ.jpg)
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Michigan 2-17 vs the Buckeyes before ducking out in 2020 and hiring Weiss/Stallions
(https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/527/171/13171527.jpeg)
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I'd take but I'd doubt it,Horns gonna win it all this year, or the Ducks. Not sure what the Dawgs got cooking up
The odds are against any of the top teams, but one likely will catch a break and win it, with a chance some lesser heralded team breaks through.
UGA has a lot of questions, as usual, but will start out ranked 2 or 3 I guess.
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Ducks lost a ton of top-end talent.
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Well that would leave them in the same situation as tOSU.Competitive sure based on talent but not experienced depth or chemistry developed
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Michigan 2-17 vs the Buckeyes before ducking out in 2020 and hiring Weiss/Stallions
(https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/527/171/13171527.jpeg)
O-H- AND-4! :)
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(https://i.redd.it/cynkiqh16lxb1.jpg)
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(https://i.redd.it/cynkiqh16lxb1.jpg)
(https://preview.redd.it/ryan-day-is-john-cooper-2-0-v0-fp4phhuoq34e1.jpeg?width=1090&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e9271dcae11cdc36caf8b8a1bbebcc16dabd10a4)
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up past 3:00 am on social media
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.taurusarmed.net%2Fforums%2Fattachments%2Ffunny-farm%2F135961d1453181572-benders-what-picture-thread-dr-phil-you-need-help.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=126f0b0054c8b11d02ec531daf911832972f54a35108805730a4a43f2eded689)
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Yeah. Hooray, playoffs.
It has completely eliminated the intensity of regular season games.
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It has completely eliminated the intensity of regular season games.
yeah, kinda wish we'd go back to the 4 team. regular season games going to feel a lot less important once there is a 24 team playoff- which is inevitable.
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yup, take a couple losses, still get a good seed and then get hot and win the tournament
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It has completely eliminated the intensity of regular season games.
Since this started talking about 2005, how did it feel that half that Buckeyes season had no intensity?
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It has completely eliminated the intensity of regular season games.
I don't think so. I might agree it has lessened the intensity for a fan from a loss, but I think during or before a game the intensity is about the same.
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Since this started talking about 2005, how did it feel that half that Buckeyes season had no intensity?
I do get that counter-argument but there were still things to play for.
When I walked out of Ohio Stadium late at night after the 2005 loss to Texas I thought the Buckeyes had two possibilities that I cared about:
- There was a VERY slight chance that Texas would lose twice and everything else would fall in line just right and Ohio State could still potentially win an NC.
- Ohio State was 0-0 in the league so they obviously had the possibility of a league title to play for.
Three games later Ohio State lost a heartbreaker at Penn State to drop to 3-2/1-1 and at that point I figured the NC was completely out of reach but even then the league title was still a possibility and the Buckeyes DID end up sharing the league title because PSU lost to a mediocre Michigan team a week after beating Ohio State (HFA matters and hangover games happen). That ended up being the first of a slew of consecutive B1G titles and that matters to me.
Ohio State also finished the 2005 season with a bowl win over Notre Dame in Tempe which contributed to them starting 2006 at #1 and staying there all the way until losing the BCSNCG a year later. Those were things that mattered to me.
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I don't think so. I might agree it has lessened the intensity for a fan from a loss, but I think during or before a game the intensity is about the same.
Not to me. In the 4-team playoff era and prior EVERY single Ohio State game was HUMONGOUSLY important because any loss, even a random mid-season upset by MSU (1998) or Purdue (multiple years) could knock tOSU out of the NC race. Now, who cares if the Buckeyes lose to MSU or Purdue in a random mid-season game? At worst it impacts seeding. Ohio State isn't going to miss the playoffs without AT LEAST three losses so they basically have two mulligans and my view of the importance of these games has dropped accordingly.
Similarly, I'll no longer care if Georgia trails Mizzou or is in a dogfight with Kent State late. In the prior era I'd switch the channel to a close Georgia game because a Georgia loss to Mizzou or Kent might ultimately open up a spot for Ohio State but now, who cares?
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The Penn State Squad is for real this year.
:57: How many times have we heard this?!?
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I don't think so. I might agree it has lessened the intensity for a fan from a loss, but I think during or before a game the intensity is about the same.
It's super cool now.
Before, it was VITAL.
Games now, with such a large playoff, are mathematically less intense now. It's not even an opinion thing.
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It's super cool now.
Before, it was VITAL.
Games now, with such a large playoff, are mathematically less intense now. It's not even an opinion thing.
I would argue that a small subset of games are less intense, but I think a person could make an argument that because of how stupid hope works there’s more intensity overall.
I understand it’s harder to see if being a helmet fan dominated one’s experience.
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I would argue that a small subset of games are less intense, but I think a person could make an argument that because of how stupid hope works there’s more intensity overall.
I understand it’s harder to see if being a helmet fan dominated one’s experience.
Well, there is more interest, from more different fan bases, later into the season, then there was before.
But individual games have less importance, for obvious reasons. That's not really debatable.
So it's both more interesting, and less interesting, than it used to be.
All clear now?? :)
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you just keep thinking Butch,that's what you're good at
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/p5clAMbXhbw?feature=share
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Well, there is more interest, from more different fan bases, later into the season, then there was before.
But individual games have less importance, for obvious reasons. That's not really debatable.
So it's both more interesting, and less interesting, than it used to be.
All clear now?? :)
Certain individual games.
Once Wisconsin lost its first game or Texas lost its second, all the rest didn’t matter at all. at least in terms of gaining weight from being part of the national title race.
and all told, that’s a lot of games.
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Certain individual games.
Once Wisconsin lost its first game or Texas lost its second, all the rest didn’t matter at all. at least in terms of gaining weight from being part of the national title race.
and all told, that’s a lot of games.
The most important games, are considerably less important now. For everyone.
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I would argue that a small subset of games are less intense, but I think a person could make an argument that because of how stupid hope works there’s more intensity overall.
I understand it’s harder to see if being a helmet fan dominated one’s experience.
This definitely impacts my view. I remember the NC being more-or-less out of reach consistently by early/mid October back in the mid-to-late 1980s and then a really rough patch (by tOSU standards) of losing at least four games per year for five straight years from 1987-1991 but from my freshman year (1993) through the present, the Buckeyes have been at least on the fringes of the NC race VERY deep into the season almost every year:
- 1993: 9-0-1 and #5 before a loss to Michigan dropped them out
- 1994: second loss was 10/8
- 1995: 11-0 and #2 before a loss to Michigan dropped them out
- 1996: 10-0 and #2 before a loss to Michigan dropped them out (John Cooper sucked)
- 1997: 10-1 and #4 before a loss to Michigan dropped them out
- 1998: In the NC race all the way up to CCG weekend (they needed a LOT to go right but almost got it)
- 1999: second loss was 10/2
- 2000: second loss was 10/28
- 2001: second loss was 10/13
- 2002: WON NC
- 2003: 10-1 and #4 before a loss to Michigan dropped them out
- 2004: second loss was 10/9
- 2005: second loss was 10/8
- 2006: In the race to the very end, lost BCSNCG
- 2007: In the race to the very end, lost BCSNCG
- 2008: second loss was 10/25
- 2009: second loss was 10/17
- 2010: 11-1 and #6 heading into CCG weekend. In theory the Buckeyes could have made it with a LOT of help.
- 2011: second loss was 10/1
- 2012: 12-0 but ineligible
- 2013: In the race to the end, lost in CFP.
- 2014: WON NC
- 2015: In the race until at least the last weekend of the regular season (needed MSU to lose to PSU)
- 2016: In the race to the end, lost in CFP.
- 2017: second loss was 11/4
- 2018: In the race until CCG weekend (needed a LOT of help)
- 2019: In the race to the end, lost in CFP.
- 2020: In the race to the end, lost in CFP.
- 2021: 10-1 and #2 before a loss to some cheaters dropped them out.
- 2022: 11-0 and #2 before a loss to some cheaters dropped them out.
- 2023: 11-0 and #2 before a loss to some cheaters dropped them out.
- 2024: WON NC
In those 32 years, Ohio State has been at least at the fringes of the NC race until at least the last regular season game in 22 of them. So yeah, I tend to have a NC-centric view.
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In those 32 years, Ohio State has been at least at the fringes of the NC race until at least the last regular season game in 22 of them. So yeah, I tend to have a NC-centric view.
In those 32 years, my team has been realistically a non-factor in the NC race every year starting before the first kickoff of each season.
With maybe 2004 being an exception.
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In the past 23 years, my team has been realistically a non-factor in the NC race every year starting before the first kickoff of each season.
(Since the start of the 2002 season)
no exceptions
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In those 32 years, my team has been realistically a non-factor in the NC race every year starting before the first kickoff of each season.
With maybe 2004 being an exception.
Like Browns fans it builds character,so we have that going for us
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Relevance.
Great motivator to do better.
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Ya sure we'll go with that,that myth was snuffed out here around '95
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Like Browns fans it builds character,so we have that going for us
Objection, your honor. Irrelevant!
The CFB world is designed to enhance and exacerbate a complete lack of parity. The NFL is designed to actually enforce parity, possibly more than any other sports league of which I know...
So unlike Purdue fans, Browns fans can't sit there and complain that the system is rigged against them. All they can do is reflect on the horrible mismanagement of their team ownership.
So you should be proud. Your fandom isn't long-term unfairness. It's long-term stupidity.
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Hey I haven't paid for a ticket in over 3 decades and haven't defiled myself by watching until CFB season is over
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you're growing!
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The most important games, are considerably less important now. For everyone.
I’m gonna need a scientific definition for most “important”, otherwise I’ve been told it’s not something they can really be discussed.
:)
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The most important games, are considerably less important now. For everyone.
While I agree a single loss somewhere won't ruin your NC aspirations, losing to a rival will always be a bad feeling. Those games remain "important", however defined.
Imagine the Dawgs lose to Florida and Auburn, but then win the SC CG and win the NC, those losses still loom, even so. Granted the NC compensates a lot, and would not have been possible without this 75 team playoff.
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trade a mythical title for a loss to a rival every single time
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Sure, if such a bargain is to be had. Those rival losses still sting, the games are important.
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trade a mythical title for a loss to a rival every single time
Yup. Look no further than our resident Buckeye fans. The loss to Michigan stung for sure, but they ended up in the best place possible.
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Rivalry games remain important to the fans.
It's not an either/or calculation.
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The question isn't importance.
The question is relative importance.
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I personally don't find rivalry games to be any less important in my brain.
They are less important certainly wrt final outcomes.
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Yup. Look no further than our resident Buckeye fans. The loss to Michigan stung for sure, but they ended up in the best place possible.
It's HOW they did, it's almost like DAY/Kelly (https://www.cfb51.com/Smileys/fantasticsmileys/lol_hitting.gif) conspired to tank.Michigan had 2 of their top 4 players out so they ran right at the other two :017: - repeatedly :banghead:
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The question isn't importance.
The question is relative importance.
I personally don't find rivalry games to be any less important in my brain.
They are less important certainly wrt final outcomes.
Yes, relatively less important because it has MUCH less impact on final outcomes:
Yup. Look no further than our resident Buckeye fans. The loss to Michigan stung for sure, but they ended up in the best place possible.
This, exactly this. Losing to Michigan sucked but our team won the NC and that is clearly more important.
If you look at my list above, Ohio State had losses to Michigan that ended our NC hopes in:
- 1993: Also had tied UW previously. This loss made it a "co" championship, no RoseBowl, and no NC.
- 1995: First loss but that killed NC hopes AND took away the league title and RoseBowl because Northwestern went undefeated in the league.
- 1996: First loss but that killed NC hopes because UF and FSU were both ranked ahead of us and played in a bowl.
- 2003: Also had lost to UW previously. This loss took away the league title and RoseBowl and spiked NC hopes.
Historically in Columbus the goals were always stated as:
- Beat Michigan.
- Win the BigTen.
- Win the Rose Bowl.
- Win the NC.
Beating Michigan is still #1 but it is a LOT less important because the other three can realistically be accomplished WITHOUT beating Michigan. In 1993, 1995, and 2003 the loss to Michigan also prevented the other three. In 1996 the Buckeyes won the league and Rose Bowl without beating Michigan but the Michigan loss still took the NC off the table.
Winning rivalry games still matters a lot but it doesn't matter as much because you can still accomplish your other goals without winning your rivalry game(s).
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I still view rivalry games as just as important as twenty years ago. That's maybe just me.
Maybe if my teams loses I can rationalize that it doesn't matter as much, we're still in the hunt, maybe.
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I still view rivalry games as just as important as twenty years ago. That's maybe just me.
Maybe if my teams loses I can rationalize that it doesn't matter as much, we're still in the hunt, maybe.
I can't speak to whether or not that's "just you" but there are clear examples on this thread and all around the country, of people who don't share your opinion.
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I think folks have said that winning an NC trumps rivalry games, which I would agree with, not "rivalry games don't matter as much". Winning an NC is the goal of course, and given a choice, most fans including me would say that compensates for losing a couple other games somewhere. To me, that doesn't mean rivalry games don't remain just as important in a season. it's not either or. And I think this has always been true.
What changed is that two losses no longer mean you're out of the NC chase. Anyway, I view rivalry games just as important as I did in 1990 ...
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If you can shake off what would otherwise have been a soul crushing loss and say, "well, we're still in the NC hunt" then no it doesn't matter as much. That's what several people are saying on this thread.
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I think we have, as usual, 4 or 5 teams that SHOULD end up between 10-2 and 12-0, with a small chance at 9-3.
Ohio State
Texas
UGA
Alabama
PSU
ND
Oregon
.......
This doesn't mean another team doesn't go 10-2 or better of course. Somebody probably will. I just don't know which of the above might end up 10-2 or 12-0. And maybe one of those flops, nothing new here.
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I once posed a question about a magic shirt. Your team would win that day if you wore it, one time guaranteed, so when would you wear it?
Back then several Dawg fans said Florida, always, no matter, that likely has changed to Alabama now. I'm sure OSU fans now would say UM (again, if that ever morphed).
Texas fans this year would be interesting, is it always OU or is it now you'd take a chance on that one and pick say UGA?
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Somebody in the B12 and somebody in the ACC likely will have that type of record, as well.
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I once posed a question about a magic shirt. Your team would win that day if you wore it, one time guaranteed, so when would you wear it?
Back then several Dawg fans said Florida, always, no matter, that likely has changed to Alabama now. I'm sure OSU fans now would say UM (again, if that ever morphed).
Texas fans this year would be interesting, is it always OU or is it now you'd take a chance on that one and pick say UGA?
For me it's still always OU.
I've never said rivalries aren't important. I'm just saying they're less important now, than they were before the large playoff.
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I once posed a question about a magic shirt. Your team would win that day if you wore it, one time guaranteed, so when would you wear it?
Back then several Dawg fans said Florida, always, no matter, that likely has changed to Alabama now. I'm sure OSU fans now would say UM (again, if that ever morphed).
Texas fans this year would be interesting, is it always OU or is it now you'd take a chance on that one and pick say UGA?
Hmmmm. Minnesota most of the time, though if there was a real drought against a big name, maybe then.
Although maybe against OSU often just because winning like six in a row there would be funny.
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I once posed a question about a magic shirt. Your team would win that day if you wore it, one time guaranteed, so when would you wear it?
Back then several Dawg fans said Florida, always, no matter, that likely has changed to Alabama now. I'm sure OSU fans now would say UM (again, if that ever morphed).
Texas fans this year would be interesting, is it always OU or is it now you'd take a chance on that one and pick say UGA?
I used to have 20 magic shirts and since 2020 they are all in a landfill.
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I used to have 20 magic shirts and since 2020 they are all in a landfill.
Because you live in Florida and have this abandoned shirts?
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I think the portal exacerbated it even more. Do Michigan fans have any feelings one way or another towards Will Howard?
Michigan basketball had two 7 foot white dudes this year. I would have hated their punchable faces by the time they were juniors. Instead they were on campus for like 4 months
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I still view rivalry games as just as important as twenty years ago. That's maybe just me.
Maybe if my teams loses I can rationalize that it doesn't matter as much, we're still in the hunt, maybe.
I'd say this. The wins would be just as sweet. If your team loses the rivalry game and it galvanizes them to run roughshod through the playoffs, then it's a lot easier to shrug off the bragadociousness of the rival fanbase. Of course, if your team loses the rivalry game and then fails to win the NC, then the rivalry loss would probably still sting just as bad. Even if they still "make the playoffs."
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I think the portal exacerbated it even more. Do Michigan fans have any feelings one way or another towards Will Howard?
Michigan basketball had two 7 foot white dudes this year. I would have hated their punchable faces by the time they were juniors. Instead they were on campus for like 4 months
Slacker. I hated them after 40 minutes of gameplay.
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Because you live in Florida and have this abandoned shirts?
No. Because I wear a magic shirt and UW loses anyway. I'm out of magic shirts.
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The only person with fewer Magic shirts after moving to Florida.
(https://happyspringtee.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/redirect12212020001202-5-1024x1024.png)
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Is a team better off losing to some mediocre opponent or to a top level opponent? You'd think the latter, but if there is to be a loss in there, maybe it's the former, with respect to making the playoff. The logic might be "they overlooked southwestern state, so ti doesn't really count because they beat Ohio State."
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It's been DECADES since the trophy case in Madison has been empty.
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No. Because I wear a magic shirt and UW loses anyway. I'm out of magic shirts.
I preferred my answer.
I had a weird thought last week in the midst of being mad at the head coach. I didn’t realize how much I really just wanted a nonconference game where they kicked the hell out of someone. One where don’t leave grumbling.
They’re 0-4 in that department thus far.
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Is a team better off losing to some mediocre opponent or to a top level opponent? You'd think the latter, but if there is to be a loss in there, maybe it's the former, with respect to making the playoff. The logic might be "they overlooked southwestern state, so ti doesn't really count because they beat Ohio State."
I think this has always been the case to an extent but the playoff has supercharged it.
It has always been the case because we've always used H2H as the tiebreaker. The problem with that, as I see it, is that while the H2H winner obviously has a better win, they also have a worse loss.
Here is an example from the early 1970s during the famed Ten Year War between Woody and Bo:
In 1972 Ohio State and Michigan both went 7-1 in the league with a one-score road loss:
- Ohio State lost 19-12 in East Lansing to a .500 (5-5-1) Michigan State team
- Michigan lost 14-11 in Columbus to a very good (9-2, finished ranked #9 and was ranked #3 heading into the RoseBowl)
So which was the better team? Almost every tiebreaking scheme that I've ever seen actually used would put Ohio State in the RoseBowl over Michigan because the Buckeyes won the H2H but does that actually make sense? Michigan's three point road loss to a top-10 team is a LOT more excusable than Ohio State's six point road loss to a mediocre opponent.
The problem for Michigan there is a lack of quality wins. The "Little Eight" were more-or-less hot garbage and their only notable OOC win was over a UCLA squad that finished 8-3. That is ok, but it is NOWHERE close to Ohio State's quality wins:
- Beat Michigan who finished 10-1 and ranked #6
- Beat North Carolina who finished 11-1 and ranked #12
That said, Ohio State got run off the field in Pasadena. Maybe Michigan would have done better but given Bo's RB record and the fact that USC went 12-0 and won the NC that year it probably wouldn't have mattered.
We used to talk about a "bad loss" and in the old days a bad loss might effectively eliminate you from NC contention but I think that the concept of a bad loss has effectively died. If you look, for example, at 2015 Ohio State had a very excusable loss. They lost by a FG to a playoff-bound MSU team. Michigan State's loss to a sub-.500 Nebraska squad was MUCH worse but in the final regular season poll MSU was #3 and tOSU was #7. The bad loss didn't hurt the Spartans nearly as much as tOSU's "good" loss hurt the Buckeyes.
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The magic shirt thing had me wondering.
I know the point is "all things being equal" but all things aren't equal.
For MSU this year, it would obviously be UM, as our biggest rival, and considering the goal this year is probably just make a bowl, flipping a likely loss to a sure win is an obvious choice, among the likely/assured losses.
But if you are just saying the other games are just play it out, and hell, you could save it for CCGs/CFP games, it would be interesting. Would OSU fans use it on the UM game? Or assume they can win 2 of Texas, PSU, UM either way, and save it for a CFP game.
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The magic shirt thing had me wondering.
I know the point is "all things being equal" but all things aren't equal.
For MSU this year, it would obviously be UM, as our biggest rival, and considering the goal this year is probably just make a bowl, flipping a likely loss to a sure win is an obvious choice, among the likely/assured losses.
But if you are just saying the other games are just play it out, and hell, you could save it for CCGs/CFP games, it would be interesting. Would OSU fans use it on the UM game? Or assume they can win 2 of Texas, PSU, UM either way, and save it for a CFP game.
A lot of it is based on what has happened recently. Right now, having not beaten Michigan since before their massive cheating scandal, I'd probably wear it for that but back when Ohio State had won eight straight against non-cheating Michigan they were an afterthought and I'd have saved it for a playoff game.
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I'd wear it for Bama. I used to think any season where we beat Florida was a good season, now it's Bama.
As an OSU fan I'd wear it for UM no doubt, the outcome might well determine playoff position or entry anyway. But that could change as the season progresses.
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As an OSU fan I'd wear it for UM no doubt, the outcome might well determine playoff position or entry anyway. But that could change as the season progresses.
I probably would but the 12-team playoff makes it a viable question.
Suppose tOSU gets to The Game undefeated at 11-0. They did in 2022 and 2023. Both years Michigan cheated and won. Ohio State went 1-1 on making the CFP anyway. So in the 4-team era you wear the shirt for Michigan because nothing beyond that is guaranteed.
Today, things are different:
If Ohio State gets to The Game undefeated at 11-0 then the game matters for rivalry purposes but Ohio State is pretty clearly in the 12-team playoff regardless of outcome so I'd be tempted to save the shirt for whatever I considered to be Ohio State's toughest challenge in the playoff.
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I probably would but the 12-team playoff makes it a viable question.
Suppose tOSU gets to The Game undefeated at 11-0. They did in 2022 and 2023. Both years Michigan cheated and won. Ohio State went 1-1 on making the CFP anyway. So in the 4-team era you wear the shirt for Michigan because nothing beyond that is guaranteed.
Today, things are different:
If Ohio State gets to The Game undefeated at 11-0 then the game matters for rivalry purposes but Ohio State is pretty clearly in the 12-team playoff regardless of outcome so I'd be tempted to save the shirt for whatever I considered to be Ohio State's toughest challenge in the playoff.
That's where the additional question arises. Do you have to declare it preseason, or do you hold it til you use it. If you hold it til you use it, then you could see how things look heading into Michigan. If you have to declare in advance of the season, it's trickier
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My magic shirt is wearable one time. If you don't wear it early, you can change your mind later.
I agree with the above logic paths.
With any luck, you can hang on to it until the final, but if a fan of your opponent did the same, well, ... we have a disturbance in the force.
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My magic shirt is wearable one time. If you don't wear it early, you can change your mind later.
I agree with the above logic paths.
With any luck, you can hang on to it until the final, but if a fan of your opponent did the same, well, ... we have a disturbance in the force.
Two disturbances that believe it
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That's where the additional question arises. Do you have to declare it preseason, or do you hold it til you use it. If you hold it til you use it, then you could see how things look heading into Michigan. If you have to declare in advance of the season, it's trickier
From my perspective it is actually less tricky if I have to declare in advance. If I have to declare in advance it is Michigan. If I can wait, then I *MIGHT* save it for a more important game.
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You "declare" when you wear it.
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The magic shirt is an interesting question for me...
I absolutely HATE losing to IU. Because most seasons (2024 the outlier), we both suck, so it's often that last shining opportunity for something positive.
However, because most seasons we both suck, it's also a game that's attainable to win without needing a magic shirt, so it seems like it could be a waste.
So I'd say probably, in this order:
- Notre Dame: I hate them. I really, really, really hate them. They're typically better than Purdue, so it will usually require a magic shirt to pull that one off. But I love seeing them lose. Of course, we don't play them every year like we used to. But we are in 2025, and it's a road game, so I'd use it without hesitation this year.
- Ohio State: Only because they are so insanely and consistently good... Pretty much any time you can beat Ohio State as Purdue, it's a giant upset win. And giant upset wins are lots of fun.
- Wisconsin: It's been over 20 goddamned years! I just want that monkey off our backs!
So that's my pick.
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The magic shirt is an interesting question for me...
I absolutely HATE losing to IU. Because most seasons (2024 the outlier), we both suck, so it's often that last shining opportunity for something positive.
However, because most seasons we both suck, it's also a game that's attainable to win without needing a magic shirt, so it seems like it could be a waste.
So I'd say probably, in this order:
- Notre Dame: I hate them. I really, really, really hate them. They're typically better than Purdue, so it will usually require a magic shirt to pull that one off. But I love seeing them lose. Of course, we don't play them every year like we used to. But we are in 2025, and it's a road game, so I'd use it without hesitation this year.
- Ohio State: Only because they are so insanely and consistently good... Pretty much any time you can beat Ohio State as Purdue, it's a giant upset win. And giant upset wins are lots of fun.
- Wisconsin: It's been over 20 goddamned years! I just want that monkey off our backs!
So that's my pick.
The day that Purdue streak ends, I’m gonna be so mad.
(Unless Purdue is awesome and UW is bad. Then I’ll be mad for other reasons)
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My magic shirt is wearable one time. If you don't wear it early, you can change your mind later.
I agree with the above logic paths.
With any luck, you can hang on to it until the final, but if a fan of your opponent did the same, well, ... we have a disturbance in the force.
Big day for sisters
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I think this has always been the case to an extent but the playoff has supercharged it.
It has always been the case because we've always used H2H as the tiebreaker. The problem with that, as I see it, is that while the H2H winner obviously has a better win, they also have a worse loss.
Here is an example from the early 1970s during the famed Ten Year War between Woody and Bo:
In 1972 Ohio State and Michigan both went 7-1 in the league with a one-score road loss:
- Ohio State lost 19-12 in East Lansing to a .500 (5-5-1) Michigan State team
- Michigan lost 14-11 in Columbus to a very good (9-2, finished ranked #9 and was ranked #3 heading into the RoseBowl)
So which was the better team? Almost every tiebreaking scheme that I've ever seen actually used would put Ohio State in the RoseBowl over Michigan because the Buckeyes won the H2H but does that actually make sense? Michigan's three point road loss to a top-10 team is a LOT more excusable than Ohio State's six point road loss to a mediocre opponent.
The problem for Michigan there is a lack of quality wins. The "Little Eight" were more-or-less hot garbage and their only notable OOC win was over a UCLA squad that finished 8-3. That is ok, but it is NOWHERE close to Ohio State's quality wins:
- Beat Michigan who finished 10-1 and ranked #6
- Beat North Carolina who finished 11-1 and ranked #12
That said, Ohio State got run off the field in Pasadena. Maybe Michigan would have done better but given Bo's RB record and the fact that USC went 12-0 and won the NC that year it probably wouldn't have mattered.
We used to talk about a "bad loss" and in the old days a bad loss might effectively eliminate you from NC contention but I think that the concept of a bad loss has effectively died. If you look, for example, at 2015 Ohio State had a very excusable loss. They lost by a FG to a playoff-bound MSU team. Michigan State's loss to a sub-.500 Nebraska squad was MUCH worse but in the final regular season poll MSU was #3 and tOSU was #7. The bad loss didn't hurt the Spartans nearly as much as tOSU's "good" loss hurt the Buckeyes.
THIS.
And the masses (voters) are utterly immune to logic. Instead of a tie-breaker, h2h is actually a be all-end all.
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my magic shirts lost their magic about 2000
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my magic shirts lost their magic about 2000
Did you accidentally run them through the dryer?
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same dryer as always
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Did you run it up the antenna on the Combine while dirt farming?
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Did you accidentally run them through the dryer?
OR WASHER. This is a key mistake newbies often make.
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lucky shoes, socks, underwear, cap, shorts, shirts, jackets, flags, koozies, face paint(for the sooners), beverages (sharkwater)
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Jack Sawyer....lol.
https://twitter.com/Maizeblue4life/status/1950203116080529536
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(https://i.imgur.com/7w8pJly.jpeg)
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I think we all figure 10-2 or 11-1 is about equally probable, and 12-0 and 9-3 are maybe the same at a much lower likelihood. 8-4 is quite improbable, single digits, some seasons just go wonky.