CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on July 15, 2025, 06:41:21 PM
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I'll do 2 of these each week, with the top and bottom.
Once SP+ puts in their week by week chances I'll go to that, but now we have Massey...
TEXAS --- W (0.76)
GRAMBLING --- W (1)
OHIO --- W (1)
@Washington --- W (0.91)
MINNESOTA --- W (0.95)
@Illinois --- W (0.92)
@Wisconsin --- W (0.92)
PSU --- W (0.75)
@Purdue --- W (0.98)
UCLA --- W (0.97)
RUTGERS --- W (0.96)
@Michigan --- W (0.72)
12-0 based on W/L, but based on win probability it's 10.84
So make your picks on O/U 11 wins
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(https://i.imgur.com/bvGLkEF.png)
I just don’t see a loss in that schedule. Maybe Texas in week 1, but not with a new QB starting on the road.
If Texas wins at Ohio Stadium they’re my favorite to win the NC.
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Probably over. But it is tasty thinking on that Texas game.
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11 feels like a don't touch. I can't imagine them going 10-2 with that schedule, but I'd never bet on a team going 12-0.
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(https://i.imgur.com/3a2PrhE.png)
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Texas is an L much of the Buckeyes stable of stalwarts have moved on. Can't replace that experience and chemistry even with raw talent coming in. Horns bringing back a lot with an axe to grind and are 1-0 in the 'Shoe ('05) they went on to win it all that year. Perhaps history repeats itself and IMO tOSU will drop at least another,perhaps the Ninnies,Huskies or the Walvies. So 10-2
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The Penn State Squad is for real this year. I also think Michigan will be legit this year and obviously Texas.
Combine that with a brand, new quarterback, and historically that’s not a great recipe. It generally leads to inconsistency. I will go under.
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Under.
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The Buckeyes are breaking in a new QB this year. Always makes things dicey early on in the season.
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The Buckeyes are breaking in a new QB this year. Always makes things dicey early on in the season.
yeah, they are not only breaking in a new rs frosh QB, but they are also breaking in a new OC, new DC, and they just lost 14 players to the NFL draft. that's a lot of turnover.
I think Texas gets them game 1. Arch will be ready for his prime time break out imo and there is also the revenge factor for Texas for the playoff loss.
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Often, a top team loses one game to a near peer and suffers an upset to a nonpeer.
10-2 would be reasonable. 11-1 is more likely I think than 9-3.
I'd say the same for UGA/ND/Bama/Texas/PSU ...
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I'm gonna say under. Top end talent is great, but they whiffed hard on the spring portal window and have a major problem with DT depth. They are 1 or 2 injuries away from being a team that can't stop the run up the middle. Also, anytime there's a new QB, we can expect some rough games here and there. I wouldn't be shocked with a 2-2 start with Texas and a tough road game @Washington. On the positive side, this is the best I've felt about the OL in a long time, so if Sayin can get up to speed, the offense could really cook later in the year.
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If they start 0-1, are we gonna get more of the Bucknut-meltdowns calling for Day's head again, before they go on to win another NC?
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If they start 0-1, are we gonna get more of the Bucknut-meltdowns calling for Day's head again, before they go on to win another NC?
nah. some fans will bitch of course but it won't be insane if they start 0-1 he'll be fine so long as they get on a roll as the young QB gets acclimated....which they inevitably will start rolling with all the talent they have.
but need not worry my friend, if they lose to Michigan in Ann Arbor in November and he drops 5 in a row to Michigan the Bucknutjob meltdowns will commence in full force and Day will need a Secret Service detail when he gets back to Columbus.
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UGA a few years back managed 15-0. That is really unlikely, I think, possible, but unlikely. You'd think they probably blasted inferior opponents, but they needed a rather remarkable comeback to beat Missouri, a mediocre team, 26-22. They handled everyone else reasonably well, Kent State was about their second closest RS win at 39-22. Then of course they needed a flat miracle to beat Ohio State. So, presume they really were the "best team" that year, they could easily have been 12-1 and eliminated in round one.
You need breaks to go undefeated, some lesser teams have a shot at tripping you up.
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but need not worry my friend, if they lose to Michigan in Ann Arbor in November and he drops 5 in a row to Michigan the Bucknutjob meltdowns will commence in full force and Day will need a Secret Service detail when he gets back to Columbus.
oh just like a myopic michican miscreant on these pages referring to jeem after losing 5 straight to tOSU then chickeneing out vs tOSU while going 2-4 in 2020. Bloviating harbaugh was in concusion protocol, cognitive decline and a complete whack job. The strange thing is what about that team that didn't have good draft classes that would miraculously lead to a 3 season run of 40-3 record,hmm
(https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/567/373/9373567.jpg?width=600&fit=bounds)
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No way they win their first 12 games. Under.
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10-2
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11-1
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I see this as such a tough call. Last year's team was phenomenal in the playoffs and won the NC but they would have been under on this projection but then again, the recent history:
- 10-2 in 2024
- 11-1 in 2023
- 11-1 in 2022
- 10-2 in 2021
- Ignore 2020 due to shortened schedule/COVID
- 12-0 in 2019
- 11-1 in 2018
- 10-2 in 2017
- 11-1 in 2016
- 11-1 in 2015
- 11-1 in 2014
So in the last 10 normal seasons the Buckeyes went:
- 12-0 once
- 11-1 six times
- 10-2 three times
History says that the most likely outcome is to match the O/U of 11 with 12-0 slightly less likely then 10-2.
I'm going under because PSU should be better than they've been for most of the above history, Michigan probably won't be as good as their cheating-fueled high but also not as bad as their pre-cheating norm and Texas is a tougher than average marquee OOC game.
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0-1
Don't care beyond that. :)
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(Actually I think the Buckeyes will probably win that opening game, so much talent and the game's at home. OSU is being forced to reload at a lot of positions, but so is Texas. Likely depends on how quickly each OSU unit can ramp up under new coordinators, one thing Texas has going for it is continuity in coaching, for the time being)
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(Actually I think the Buckeyes will probably win that opening game, so much talent and the game's at home. OSU is being forced to reload at a lot of positions, but so is Texas. Likely depends on how quickly each OSU unit can ramp up under new coordinators, one thing Texas has going for it is continuity in coaching, for the time being)
Things have changed so much.
Of course I want my Buckeyes to win but it really doesn't matter. Realistically the winner will be the team that gets things together first but that is NOT necessarily the team that will be better in December/January and, if I could pick one of the two, I'd MUCH rather be better in December/January.
Twenty years ago I was in Ohio Stadium for tOSU's showdown with the Vince Young led Longhorns. That was a great game, very even, and came down to the last few minutes. The result was also VERY important. Ohio State's loss effectively eliminated them from the NC race and Texas wouldn't have gone to the BCSNCG without their win.
This year's game *MIGHT* have some impact on seeding but for the most part it is a glorified exhibition with little or no impact.
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Yeah. Hooray, playoffs.
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10-2
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The most likely results are obviously 10-2 oe 11-2, while 12-0 seems a bit more likely than 9-3, to me anyway. An 8-4 season would be viewed as, well, bad, but probably would mean a rash of injuries somewhere. Anything below that is not really very possible at all.
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The most likely results are obviously 10-2 oe 11-2, while 12-0 seems a bit more likely than 9-3, to me anyway. An 8-4 season would be viewed as, well, bad, but probably would mean a rash of injuries somewhere. Anything below that is not really very possible at all.
I think 9-3 is their worst case scenario season and 12-0 is obviously best case scenario season. neither is likely to happen imo- as for either scenario they would need either a very lot to go right to hit 12-0 or a very lot to go wrong to hit 9-3, so I think they split the diff and go like 10-2 and make the playoff.
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oh just like a myopic michican miscreant on these pages referring to jeem after losing 5 straight to tOSU then chickeneing out vs tOSU while going 2-4 in 2020. Bloviating harbaugh was in concusion protocol, cognitive decline and a complete whack job. The strange thing is what about that team that didn't have good draft classes that would miraculously lead to a 3 season run of 40-3 record,hmm
(https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/567/373/9373567.jpg?width=600&fit=bounds)
TL; DR
Only scored 10 points. Lost at home. As 3 TD favorites. To a walk-on QB who threw for 60 yards. OUCH.
hey, I'd be salty too.:)
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11-1
I'd take but I'd doubt it,Horns gonna win it all this year, or the Ducks. Not sure what the Dawgs got cooking up
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TL; DR
Only scored 10 points. Lost at home. As 3 TD favorites. To a walk-on QB who threw for 60 yards. OUCH.
hey, I'd be salty too.:)
Ya and Chip still made bank as an O.C. stepping up to Sundays. Course he had a nice little run after that
TL DR,puhleeze a 4-5 lines,COI is going to be scribbling out a lot more than that 😈
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Ya and Chip still made bank as an O.C. stepping up to Sundays. Course he had a nice little run after that
TL DR,puhleeze a 4-5 lines,COI is going to be scribbling out a lot more than that 😈
(https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1596608287931146240/pu/img/v-FB0ZAFb4FDkzpQ.jpg)
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Michigan 2-17 vs the Buckeyes before ducking out in 2020 and hiring Weiss/Stallions
(https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/527/171/13171527.jpeg)
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I'd take but I'd doubt it,Horns gonna win it all this year, or the Ducks. Not sure what the Dawgs got cooking up
The odds are against any of the top teams, but one likely will catch a break and win it, with a chance some lesser heralded team breaks through.
UGA has a lot of questions, as usual, but will start out ranked 2 or 3 I guess.
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Ducks lost a ton of top-end talent.
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Well that would leave them in the same situation as tOSU.Competitive sure based on talent but not experienced depth or chemistry developed
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Michigan 2-17 vs the Buckeyes before ducking out in 2020 and hiring Weiss/Stallions
(https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/527/171/13171527.jpeg)
O-H- AND-4! :)
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(https://i.redd.it/cynkiqh16lxb1.jpg)