CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on April 09, 2025, 12:58:13 PM
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In the 2024-2025 BB thread we got into a discussion of UCONN's run over the last 25ish years. It is a strange thing. They have six NC's which is twice as many as the next best (UF, UNC, and Dook have three each). They look great when looking at NC's but they are only pretty good when looking at everything else. They have less NCAA Appearances, less S16's, etc. Basically they have six incredible years and not much else. Compare to MSU over the last 26 NCAA Tournaments: The Spartans made the NCAA every year (8 more than UCONN) and they've been to 15 S16's (2nd behind Dook with 19 and half-again as many as UCONN). MSU is also the leader in F4's over the past 26 NCAA Tournaments with 8 (Dook, UNC, and UCONN have seven each).
(https://i.imgur.com/KF0eydL.png)
How do you value MSU's consistent greatness relative to UCONN's sporadic excellence?
For a football example, in the 33 seasons from 1969-2001 inclusive Ohio State was 4th best in overall winning percentage but won ZERO NC's. Here is the top list:
- .841 Nebraska 339-62-5, 5 NC's, 1970, 1971, 1994, 1995, 1997
- .784 Michigan 304-81-8, 1 NC, 1997
- .772 Penn State 303-89-2, 2 NC's, 1982, 1986
- .748 Ohio State 287-94-8, - 0 - NC's
- .742 Oklahoma 284-96-8, 4 NC's, 1974, 1975, 1985, 2000
- .729 Florida State 282-103-5, 2 NC's, 1993, 1999
- .727 Alabama 287-107-3, 4 NC's, 1973, 1978, 1979, 1992
- .719 Tennessee 279-106-10, 1 NC, 1998
- .716 Notre Dame 273-107-5, 3 NC's, 1973, 1977, 1988
- .699 Brigham Young 283-121-3, 1 NC, 1984
- .692 Texas 266-117-5, 2 NC's, 1969, 1970
- .686 Florida 265-119-8, 1 NC, 1996
- .682 Miami, FL 260-121-0, 5 NC's, 1983, 1987, 1989, 1991, 2001
- .680 Southern California 260-119-13, 3 NC's, 1972, 1974, 1978
- .676 Georgia 257-121-8, 1 NC, 1980
- .674 Auburn 254-121-7, - 0 - NC's
- .666 Washington 253-126-3, 1 NC, 1991
- .651 Arizona State 244-130-4, - 0 - NC's
- .643 Texas A&M 248-137-3, - 0 - NC's
- .638 Arkansas 241-135-9, - 0 - NC's
Schools WITHOUT a NC in bold.
Same question here. How do you value Ohio State's consistent greatness relative to say Miami's sporadic excellence. Ohio State is almost one game per year better overall but Miami has 5 NC's. What about Ohio State compared to Washington? The Buckeyes are a game per year better but Washington has an NC.
Is it Championships uber alles? Does even just one NC trump decades of being a contender in the mix? If not, at what point is that line crossed?
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I don't think just 1 trumps. But 6?
More weird UConn facts, last year was their first conference championship since 2006. They've won 4 national titles in that span. But just 1 conference title. Hell, they hadn't even finished in the top 2 since 2009, and they spent 7 of those years in the AAC
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Hard to define the line, but for me there's definitely one somewhere. By which I mean my answer differs based on extremes.
In general, I'd rather my team win a bunch of games and have 0 NCs to show for it than have an overall poor record with some NC seasons sprinkled in.
But you could go to further extremes, and that would change. i.e., if I had to endure 4-8 every other season, but win the NC in the between seasons, I'd probably prefer that to a more consistent team with less-to-nothing to show for it. That's not realistic, but I'm just giving an example of the thought process. Where the actual line is, I'm not sure.
I can tell you that the two separate 3-yr periods Les Miles had at LSU where the team went 34-6 over said 3-yr span was more enjoyable to me than, say, Orgeron's briefer tenure. One of Miles' 3-yr periods produced an NC, the other did not. Some would say that NC has warts and for the sake of argument let's say I accept that. Orgeron had a bright, beautiful shooting star of a season which no reasonable person criticizes.....surrounded by a bunch of derpy seasons.
I much preferred the Miles years I reference than the Orgeron years, and it would still be that way had 2007 not won an NC. So wherever the line is, I know that 1 NC over, say, a five year period, is not worth more than consistency, for me. Bump that up to 2 NCs over a 5 yr span (I guess, say, Alabama, Clemson, or UGA lately) and I'd probably be getting more willing to deal with crap seasons.
However, since I consider NCs unlikely as a rule, given a blank slate in a vacuum, I'd opt for the 11-win team who never wins a title.
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From the looks of things, I'd put UConn's 26-year stretch up there with anyone.
Yeah, they had some down years. Yeah, they missed the tournament a few times.
But it's not like 10 S16's in 26 years is terrible. I don't consider that ALL that far behind the teams who made it to the S16 in the 13-15 time range. The only true S16 outlier in the field is Duke at 19.
And then if you look at Final Fours, 7 in that stretch is tied for 2nd place only behind MSU, which has 8.
I might like MSU's run over UConn's if they'd gotten 3 NC's in that time. That's a school that's not only consistently good but ascends the mountaintop enough in a terribly difficult 6-round single elimination tournament to be laudable. But just 1? Nope, I'm taking UConn.
Now, I might look at that list and say I'd rather be a Duke fan than UConn, because Duke over that run is basically MSU with two more championships. No real down years, lots of S16 and F4 seasons. But MSU's 26-year tourney streak isn't enough to get over being down by 5 in the NC count.
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I agree with the consensus here. There is a line but exactly where it is is very difficult to pin down.
If it were my choice for my school, our next 26 years could be either MSU's last 26 or UCONN's last 26, I'd take UCONN and the 6 NC's without hesitation. Now if you pushed it to UCONN's last 26 years vs Dook's last 26 years, that is a tougher call:
- UCONN has more NC's 6 vs 3
- Each have 7 F4's
- Dook has more S16's, 19-10
- Dook has more NCAA Tournaments 25-18
- Dook also was just a lot better generally in terms of winning regular season games, league titles, high NCAA seeds, etc.
That is still a tough call though because six NC's is almost one every five years. Hell, even if it was four missed tournaments and one NC that is still tough to argue with.
Closer to home, since the expansion to 64 in 1985 Purdue and Michigan are basically mirror images in BB. Purdue has a LOT better overall record, more league titles, and more NCAA Appearances. The two are about even in S16's then Michigan takes over with more E8's, more F4's, and an NC. Who do you take there?
If I'm a Purdue fan I'm proud of the consistency and regular season success but frustrated by the lack of deep Tournament runs. If I'm a Michigan fan (perish the thought), I'm proud of the Tournament success but frustrated by the lack of consistency and regular season success.
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Closer to home, since the expansion to 64 in 1985 Purdue and Michigan are basically mirror images in BB. Purdue has a LOT better overall record, more league titles, and more NCAA Appearances. The two are about even in S16's then Michigan takes over with more E8's, more F4's, and an NC. Who do you take there?
If I'm a Purdue fan I'm proud of the consistency and regular season success but frustrated by the lack of deep Tournament runs. If I'm a Michigan fan (perish the thought), I'm proud of the Tournament success but frustrated by the lack of consistency and regular season success.
I'd probably take Michigan. People outside the fandom, especially when Indiana is our instate and biggest rival--probably don't understand the psyche that 40 years of not making the F4 can do to you...
There's a specific sort of fatalism to always feeling like you're JUST good enough, but never making it happen, that can be crushing. I suspect it was like this for Cubs fans from when the curse started until they finally won again. Things like the Bartman ball for them were similar to all the banana peels that I've talked about Purdue slipping on over the years.
And then the IU thing... They haven't won a banner in almost 40 years, but that doesn't stop them from talking about the fact that they've actually won one. The fact that Gene Keady was actually [slightly] over .500 H2H against Knight? Also doesn't matter. Look at that dusty old banner!
As a Purdue fan, of course I'm proud that we've run a clean program, we've been consistently excellent, we've had only two coaches in the last 45 years, and all that. It makes me feel like we're doing something right. But oh, how I'd love to see them with some more F4's and actually to hoist the trophy at some point. It definitely feels like for all the excellence we've had, basketball-wise, we're just missing something.
I.e. I'd bet if you had a poll of "Best college basketball program without a national championship in the NCAA Tournament era", Purdue would be a pretty popular choice.
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I have to agree with Beta. There is such a discrepancy in titles I’ll live with UConn’s lows to get those highs.
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I don't think just 1 trumps. But 6?
More weird UConn facts, last year was their first conference championship since 2006. They've won 4 national titles in that span. But just 1 conference title. Hell, they hadn't even finished in the top 2 since 2009, and they spent 7 of those years in the AAC
A preview of the future of college football, a la 2024 OSU.
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For a football example, in the 33 seasons from 1969-2001 inclusive Ohio State was 4th best in overall winning percentage but won ZERO NC's. Here is the top list:
- .841 Nebraska 339-62-5, 5 NC's, 1970, 1971, 1994, 1995, 1997
- .784 Michigan 304-81-8, 1 NC, 1997
- .772 Penn State 303-89-2, 2 NC's, 1982, 1986
- .748 Ohio State 287-94-8, - 0 - NC's
- .742 Oklahoma 284-96-8, 4 NC's, 1974, 1975, 1985, 2000
- .729 Florida State 282-103-5, 2 NC's, 1993, 1999
Is it Championships uber alles? Does even just one NC trump decades of being a contender in the mix? If not, at what point is that line crossed?
I can say for Osborne, from 1973 to 1994 was a Derned long stretch w/o a title. Fans hung their hat on the consistency and 9 win seasons, but it was tough.
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We can't compare this idea from basketball to football, as you can't really win so many NCs in such a span without being extremely good the other years. Your program is either elite and yields 10-11-12 win seasons or it doesn't and that NC is largely a result of some luck.
In basketball, a special player or 2, or several special players over a decade-plus can give an otherwise average program those elite peaks. 5 moving parts on the court vs 11 moving parts on the field.
You might prefer OSU's last 25 years over Alabama's.....but not really, because even when Bama didn't win a NC, they still had elite seasons (by and large).
And don't forget, missing the tournament in basketball = you had a shitty season. You're not one of the top 40 or so teams if you list-ranked them. That's like .500 or worse in football.
Imagine Alabama winning the NC in 09, then going 6-6, 2 more NCs in 11 and 12, then falling to 5-7. It's silly. Would never happen.
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Imagine Alabama winning the NC in 09, then going 6-6, 2 more NCs in 11 and 12, then falling to 5-7. It's silly. Would never happen.
I do 100% agree that in the old world, this is silly and would never happen.
I wonder how much more often this sort of stuff will happen in the transfer portal / free agency / NIL era.
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I do 100% agree that in the old world, this is silly and would never happen.
I wonder how much more often this sort of stuff will happen in the transfer portal / free agency / NIL era.
Good point. Washington might be a good case study, going forward. Didn't win a NC, but was NC-quality, then had an all-time exodus of HC and players....IF they can jump back up (unlikely).....it might be a kind of success roller coaster, but I'm not sure anyone would seek that out. Alas, they may not have the choice.
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Good point. Washington might be a good case study, going forward. Didn't win a NC, but was NC-quality, then had an all-time exodus of HC and players....IF they can jump back up (unlikely).....it might be a kind of success roller coaster, but I'm not sure anyone would seek that out. Alas, they may not have the choice.
I think Michigan will do it. They went from national champion, to 7-5, and seem primed to jump back to a 10 win team.
I think you will see it more often in that direction than in the other, where a national title contender whiffs in a couple key places in the portal, and falls off. I don't think you'll see the opposite where a team jumps from bad to national title contender. What we saw from Indiana this year, is probably about the ceiling on that
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A preview of the future of college football, a la 2024 OSU.
@Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) LOVES to point out that "Ohio State finished 4th in the B1G" but a big part of this is the wildly unbalanced schedules. This will NOT just be an OSU thing nor even just a B1G thing. With mega-conferences the difficulty of various league schedules will vary greatly. The SEC example last year was Florida/Mizzou. Mizzou ended up with a better SEC record but Florida's SoS was dramatically tougher. I would argue that Florida was not only better but CLEARLY superior.
Within the B1G, they use cumulative record of league opponents as a tiebreaker so I was tracking it in 2024 because it looked like that would determine the CG participant (it actually did, PSU beat out IU based on tougher SoS). Here are the cumulative league records of the opponents of the top teams in the B1G in 2024:
- .543 Ohio State 44-37, average of 4.9-4.1 or roughly 5-4
- .407 Penn State 33-48, average of 3.7-5.3 or a little under 4-5
- .395 Oregon 32-49, average of 3.6-5.4 or half way between 3-6 and 4-5
- .346 Indiana 28-53, average of 3.1-5.9 or slightly better than 3-6
That is a humongous difference.
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With mega-conferences the difficulty of various league schedules will vary greatly. The SEC example last year was Florida/Mizzou. Mizzou ended up with a better SEC record but Florida's SoS was dramatically tougher. I would argue that Florida was not only better but CLEARLY superior.
I think it is important for me to point this out because this isn't me making excuses for Ohio State. It isn't only an Ohio State nor only a B1G issue. In the Mizzou/Florida example in 2024:
Mizzou went 5-3 and Florida went 4-4 in the SEC. Thus Mizzou finished tied for 4th and Florida finished 10th. But lets look closer:
Mizzou's five wins were over:
- Vandy at home in 2OT, Vandy finished 3-5
- Auburn at home by 4, Auburn finished 2-6
- Oklahoma at home by 7, Oklahoma finished 2-6
- MissSt on the road by 19, MissSt finished 0-8
- Arkansas at home by 7, Arkansas finished 3-5
So their ONLY road SEC win was over the hapless Bulldogs who haven't won an SEC game since October, 2023. Their other four SEC wins were all at home and all were one possession games. In their other three SEC games the Missouri Tigers got obliterated in College Station by aTm (5-3), got shutout and blown out in Tuscaloosa by Alabama (5-3) and lost a close one at USCe (5-3).
What about Florida? Their four SEC losses were:
- aTm at home by 13, aTm finished 5-3
- Tennessee on the road in OT, Tennessee finished 6-2
- Georgia in the WLOCP by 14, Georgia finished 6-2
- Texas in Austin by a lot, Texas finished 7-1.
Those last three were the three best teams in the SEC and Mizzou didn't play any of them. Florida lost to the SEC's three CFP entrants and an aTm team that also beat Mizzou.
Florida's four SEC wins:
- MissSt on the road by 17, MissSt finished 0-8
- Kentucky at home by 28, Kentucky finished 1-7
- LSU at home by 11, LSU finished 5-3
- Ole Miss at home by 7, Ole Miss finished 5-3
So Florida was 2-4 against SEC teams that finished with winning records. That may not be great but it is a LOT better than Mizzou's 0-3 AND Florida's winning SEC teams were better than Mizzou's winning SEC teams.
My point is that this will be pervasive in CFB going forward. In the past I think we all just used the convenient shortcut of thinking of "SEC Schedules" and "B1G Schedules" and just assuming that all SEC schedules were more-or-less equal and that all B1G schedules were more-or-less equal. They simply aren't anymore. Florida's SEC schedule was DRAMATICALLY more difficult than Mizzou's SEC schedule just as Ohio State's B1G schedule was DRAMATICLLY more difficult than Indiana's B1G schedule.
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For sure.
In exposing myself to thousands of teams from the past for my WN game (especially successful seasons), a vast majority of the unexpected great seasons are due to scheduling breaks. Either missing the top team(s) from your conference, or getting them at home, etc.
That, and fortuitous timing (your special recruiting class maturing the same year the traditional powers are reloading).
1995 Northwestern will always stand out to me. A good-enough QB, a workhorse RB, and a stud WR, plus a stars-aligned defense. Upset @ND, upset @UM, but still lost to Miami-OH. So it's not as if they out-talented anyone or could look past a MAC team. But they didn't have to face OSU. The teams they upset wound up having 3+ losses, so they benefitted from beating top-10 ranked teams that weren't actually top-10 teams by the end. So they got the boost of defeating that ranking without having to beat that caliber of team.
They were exposed by a 9-2-1 USC team in the RB. So you could say the '95 Cats didn't play one elite team all year.
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The most notable example of that fortuitous timing was the joke BYU team that got gifted a MNC back in the 80's.
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1984
the 84 Husker squad would have steamrolled the kitties
and a 5'8" 160lb guy won the Hypesman
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1984 is Exhibit 293819240 of voters having the logic of children.
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and possibly the #1 ranked example
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1984
the 84 Husker squad would have steamrolled the kitties
and a 5'8" 160lb guy won the Hypesman
Your Huskers would have steamrolled BYU but that really isn't all that much of a compliment to Nebraska, there were easily 20 teams better than BYU that year.
It is a great example of fortuitous timing.
It started before week #1.
The Miami Hurricanes knocked off preseason #1 Auburn in the Kick-off Classic in Jersey in what we now refer to as "week 0". Miami was a huge help to BYU's title run because the next week (week 1) the Hurricanes beat the #17 Gators by 12 in Tampa. That would be Florida's only loss of the year.
Oddly, after beating #1 and #17 before the week-1 poll, Miami somehow only went 6-5 the rest of the way.
BYU had the good fortune to play Pitt in week #1. That helped LOT because the Panthers were #3 in the preseason poll. Thus, when BYU beat them by 6 in Pittsburgh nobody questioned the MoV because it was a road win over a top-5 team.
Pitt started 1984 with first place votes and at #3. Then they lost 20-14 at home to BYU and dropped to #17. Then they had a week off before losing 42-10 at home to Oklahoma and dropping out of the rankings. Pitt wouldn't be ranked again until 1987 and to this day more than 40 years later they haven't returned to the top-5.
1984 was a year where #1 was a hot potato. Auburn was #1 in the preseason poll and lost the Kick-off Classic to Miami then:
- Miami was #1 in the week-1 poll then lost in Ann Arbor.
- Nebraska
- Nebraska
- Nebraska, then they lost to Syracuse
- Texas
- Texas, then they tied with Oklahoma in Dallas
- Washington
- Washington
- Washington
- Washington, then they lost to USC
- Nebraska who then lost to Oklahoma
- BYU
- BYU
- BYU
- BYU
BYU's two big wins that year were beating #3 Pittsburgh on the road and beating "Michigan" in the Holiday Bowl. The problem is that those wins SOUND a lot better than they actually were. #3 Pitt turned out to be a 3-7-1 team and that "Michigan" team that BYU beat was the worst of the Bo Schembechler era.
BYU beat Pitt by 6 but:
- Oklahoma beat Pitt by 32
- South Carolina beat Pitt by 24
- Miami, FL beat Pitt by 20
- West Virginia beat Pitt by 18
- Syracuse also beat Pitt by 6
BYU beat Michigan by 7 but:
- Iowa beat Michigan by 26 (shutout)
- Ohio State beat Michigan by 15
- Michigan State beat Michigan by 12
- Washington beat Michigan by 9
There are nine teams that were better than BYU in 1984. I know that H2H and MoV aren't end-all-be-all but it is telling that in both cases BYU looks BAD by comparison to actual big-boy football teams. They were a complete joke.
1984 Final rankings:
- 13-0 BYU
- 11-1 Washington lost only to USC
- 9-1-1 Florida lost to Miami, tied LSU. Interestingly those were Florida's first two games. They finished with nine straight wins.
- 10-2 Nebraska lost to Cuse and OU
- 10-2 Boston College lost to West Virginia and Penn State
- 9-2-1 Oklahoma lost to KU and Wash, tied Tx
- 10-2 Oklahoma State lost to Nebraska and Oklahoma
- 10-2 SMU
- 9-3 UCLA
- 9-3 USC
- USCe
- 9-3 Maryland
- 9-3 Ohio State
- 9-4 Auburn
- 8-3-1 LSU
- 8-4-1 Iowa
- 7-3-2 Florida State
- 8-5 Miami
- 9-3 Kentucky
- 8-2-2 Virginia
The other 19 teams in the poll would have smoked BYU but instead they played a .500 Michigan team. They finished with ZERO wins over ranked teams.
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I think if OU had beaten UW in the Orange Bowl, they're the champs. If Florida wasn't on probation and won whatever bowl they'd have played in, they'd have been champs.
This is an instance where they should have broken BYU's tie-in, damn the ramifications, and just put them up against any of the top teams in their bowl.
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I think if OU had beaten UW in the Orange Bowl, they're the champs. If Florida wasn't on probation and won whatever bowl they'd have played in, they'd have been champs.
This is an instance where they should have broken BYU's tie-in, damn the ramifications, and just put them up against any of the top teams in their bowl.
Fundamentally of course, it was Michigan's fault.
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I dimly recall the FSU run back when they finished top 5 many years in a row with no (??) NCs. Impressive, not memorable apparently.
What would you prefer for YOUR team?
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The moniker "best player never to win a major" is always kind of interesting, to me.
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Your Huskers would have steamrolled BYU but that really isn't all that much of a compliment to Nebraska, there were easily 20 teams better than BYU that year.
1984 was a year where #1 was a hot potato. Auburn was #1 in the preseason poll and lost the Kick-off Classic to Miami then:
- Miami was #1 in the week-1 poll then lost in Ann Arbor.
- Nebraska
- Nebraska
- Nebraska, then they lost to Syracuse
that Syracuse game was a shocker
I listened on the radio while driving a rental truck to Muscatine, IA with all my belongings.
Spent a year there helping to build a pork plant in Columbus Junction. Attended the Iowa/Michigan game in 85.