CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on March 12, 2025, 09:04:17 PM
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Well I was certainly hoping not to start this thread for another week or two but Iowa put the last nail in the coffin for Ohio State's 24/25 season so I'm moving on.
I do have some observations that I'd like to ask for feedback from other tOSU fans but also and especially non-tOSU fans. Sometimes it is easier to see clearly when you aren't emotionally attached/invested.
First, my perception was that tOSU's big men just flat out sucked. They got these 5* guys from blue-bloods Dook and Kentucky and the upside was sky-high. I honestly wasn't expecting THAT, but not THIS either. I thought they'd at least be decent.
Second, I know that all teams experience this occasionally but it seemed to me that Ohio State had a much higher than normal proportion of games where they just imploded down the stretch. Against Indiana in Bloomington, for example, they led for something like 35 minutes and by as much as double digits but in the end the number next to IU was bigger. Not sure why and maybe I'm distorting my view because those are so annoying so what are some neutral takes?
Third, and this is a very daming criticism of Coach Diebler but it felt to me that the whole was less than the sum of the parts. The parts were not great, but it felt like the parts were easily a Tournament team and the whole is about to host NIT games.
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you could have put this off for a week or three, maybe 5
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you could have put this off for a week or three, maybe 5
Eh, I'm done with 24/25, you?
I wasn't able to watch last night (Peacock) so I was reading some coverage of Ohio State's loss last night and it really hit on two of the three themes that I mentioned earlier.
First on the big men:
Ohio State's 5* Big men Sean Stewart and Aaron Bradshaw combined for 31 minutes in the Iowa game and grabbed 10 rebounds which is good but not exactly remarkable. In those 31 minutes they had only one block and contributed basically nothing on offense with a grand combined total of two freaking points on (combined) 1-6 shooting.
The above was bad already but then I read the 11Warriors (tOSU site) account (https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-basketball/2025/03/154230/ohio-states-big-ten-tournament-run-ends-in-one-game-as-buckeyes-fall-to-iowa-77-70) and noticed in the game notes at the end that "Star Iowa center Owen Freeman, the team's leading scorer and rebounder, was out with an injury on Wednesday." Wait, what? You mean to tell me that Iowa's starting star center missed the game? Ohio State's big men were this bad against a backup? This is beyond pathetic.
How can you possibly only shoot 1-6 when you should be dunking and shooting from point blank range?
Second, imploding down the stretch:
This game was tied at 61 with 7:25 to go. To that point it had been a mostly back-and-forth affair. Ohio State didn't score again until 3:26 to go. If you are keeping track at home that is one second shy of a four minute stretch of zero freaking points. By the time Ohio State did score again it was to cut a seven point deficit to five and the die was cast. Ohio State did get within two with 00:45 to go but Iowa answered with a three that put it out of reach and ended Ohio State's season.
This just feels like deja vu. Late game collapses against multiple opponents are the cause of Ohio State's third straight NCAA Tournament absence.
Just a few examples:
- Ohio State led 49-41 with 9:37 to go in the IU game and lost by 6
- Ohio State led almost the entire Illinois game and had a 68-63 lead with 7:43 to go but didn't score again until 2:28 at which point the bucket merely cut the deficit to 8.
Finally, Ohio State shot 22.7% from three in the BTT loss. For a team that lives-and-dies by the three, that isn't going to get it done.
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UNL was done three, maybe 5 weeks ago
if they were ever started
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UNL was done three, maybe 5 weeks ago
if they were ever started
They got started for sure. When Nebraska played Ohio State the first time (Lincoln) both teams appeared to be on the bubble and Nebraska's win pushed them to 16-8/6-7. At that point they looked like a good bet to make the Tournament. The loss to Maryland didn't really hurt and the road win over Northwestern on February 16 put Nebraska at 17-9/7-8 sill looking like a solid bet to make the Tournament. Obviously the five-game losing streak since then kiboshed that but they were in the hunt until late February. Ohio State lasted a couple more weeks.
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Eh, I'm done with 24/25, you?
I wasn't able to watch last night (Peacock) so I was reading some coverage of Ohio State's loss last night and it really hit on two of the three themes that I mentioned earlier.
First on the big men:
Ohio State's 5* Big men Sean Stewart and Aaron Bradshaw combined for 31 minutes in the Iowa game and grabbed 10 rebounds which is good but not exactly remarkable. In those 31 minutes they had only one block and contributed basically nothing on offense with a grand combined total of two freaking points on (combined) 1-6 shooting.
The above was bad already but then I read the 11Warriors (tOSU site) account (https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-basketball/2025/03/154230/ohio-states-big-ten-tournament-run-ends-in-one-game-as-buckeyes-fall-to-iowa-77-70) and noticed in the game notes at the end that "Star Iowa center Owen Freeman, the team's leading scorer and rebounder, was out with an injury on Wednesday." Wait, what? You mean to tell me that Iowa's starting star center missed the game? Ohio State's big men were this bad against a backup? This is beyond pathetic.
How can you possibly only shoot 1-6 when you should be dunking and shooting from point blank range?
Second, imploding down the stretch:
This game was tied at 61 with 7:25 to go. To that point it had been a mostly back-and-forth affair. Ohio State didn't score again until 3:26 to go. If you are keeping track at home that is one second shy of a four minute stretch of zero freaking points. By the time Ohio State did score again it was to cut a seven point deficit to five and the die was cast. Ohio State did get within two with 00:45 to go but Iowa answered with a three that put it out of reach and ended Ohio State's season.
This just feels like deja vu. Late game collapses against multiple opponents are the cause of Ohio State's third straight NCAA Tournament absence.
Just a few examples:
- Ohio State led 49-41 with 9:37 to go in the IU game and lost by 6
- Ohio State led almost the entire Illinois game and had a 68-63 lead with 7:43 to go but didn't score again until 2:28 at which point the bucket merely cut the deficit to 8.
Finally, Ohio State shot 22.7% from three in the BTT loss. For a team that lives-and-dies by the three, that isn't going to get it done.
Freeman has been out for a while.
But yeah, OSU assembled some not impressive bigs.
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They got started for sure. When Nebraska played Ohio State the first time (Lincoln) both teams appeared to be on the bubble and Nebraska's win pushed them to 16-8/6-7. At that point they looked like a good bet to make the Tournament. The loss to Maryland didn't really hurt and the road win over Northwestern on February 16 put Nebraska at 17-9/7-8 sill looking like a solid bet to make the Tournament. Obviously the five-game losing streak since then kiboshed that but they were in the hunt until late February. Ohio State lasted a couple more weeks.
well, scraping into the tournament with a crap seed playin as an underdog with little chance for a tourney win isn't much to get excited about
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anyone want to coach the Gopher Basketball program
you will get 4 years and you dont have to do much just make sure the guys are not being horrible in the community
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I wish Freddie Hoiberg would take that position
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Freeman has been out for a while.
But yeah, OSU assembled some not impressive bigs.
I could be wrong and I'm interested in neutral takes but as I see it, Ohio State's guards were actually pretty good*. This catastrophe with the bigs is THE major problem. I don't really watch enough to be able to have a decent guess as to whether this is a talent problem or a coaching problem but it needs to get fixed ASAP.
*I don't mean "National Championship good" nor even necessarily "B1G Championship good" but I think they were good enough to contend in the B1G. The Bigs, however, looked more like they belonged to a mediocre MAC team.
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well, scraping into the tournament with a crap seed playin as an underdog with little chance for a tourney win isn't much to get excited about
I'm honestly surprised to hear this take from you. Even as an Ohio State fan I view a Tournament berth as "not nothing" considering Nebraska's history I would have expected it to be a cause of celebration for fans in Lincoln.
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hoops just isn't a big deal for most Husker fans
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Owen Freeman in the portal after Fran got let go. Averaged 16.7 points and 6.7 rebounds, plus nearly 2 blocks per game.
He will be in high demand, although the defense needs a lot of work
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Well, not happy to be here, but that's life sometimes. UW has an interesting rebuild, but should return some solid pieces. Time to look closer.
The departures
John Tonje - One-year transfer wonder. Was one of the couple best players in the league. Will be missed.
Max Klesmit - Really nice shooting guard who helped at point and wing. Had a rough shooting year, but was just really valuable to have out there. Good Badger.
Steve Crowl - Four-year starting center. Never quite dominant, but often pretty good, if not the most consistent. Gonna be weird not having him out there.
Carter Gilmore - A former walk-on whose offense had folks calling for less of him, but whose defense always meant he found a role. Figured out some shooting this season and became an almost starter. Also held down 4 spot well.
Kamari McGee - A transfer development story. Was almost useless when he arrived from UWGB. Was a nice change-up ball-handler and spot up shooter last year. Also the only true point in the rotation.
Markus Ilver - Wasn’t in the rotation. Spent four years, seeming like a guy who could maybe find a way to contribute at a thin spot, but he never did.
Rotation (hopeful) returners
John Blackwell - He's a strong scoring wing/shooting guard who can be a point. Ideally he's not having as much of that work this year, but he's a top guy regardless.
Nolan Winter - Versatile center type who platooned last year while playing a bit of power forward. I kind of think he slots in at center and they go from there.
Jack Janicki - Kind of do-everything low-usage wing in the mold of a lot of UW shooting guards of yesteryear. Ideally he's a glue guy backup, but if he starts, wouldn't be a killer.
Xavier Amos - Was brought in to start at the 4, but wasn't consistent and played about 10 minutes per game. Has the skills to be a great starter, inconsistent starter or nice bench option, and he controls a lot of that. Mild transfer candidate because of how this year went.
Non-rotation guys who might have ability
(These guys are in that zone where we don't know if the staff has already decided they will have it, don't have it or might have it. Some could be future starters, some could be told they'll likely never have a role)
Cam Hunter - Last year's point guard transfer. He was supposed to be a functional starting option, but barely got in and looked lost when he did. An injury was a factor there, but I'm kind of skeptical he's a B1G rotation guy.
Daniel Freitag - Well regarded point guard recruit who was expected to fight for a rotation spot as a freshman. Came in completely not ready, and this year was basically a wash. Still has ability, but on the staff to decide what's there.
Jack Robison - Supposed to be a nice shooting wing. Probably not big enough to be an undersized stretch 4, so probably in the same space as Janicki. He all but redshirted, so we'll have to see if he/they think he could pop this year or next.
Riccardo Greppi - Big beefy backup center type they added late last year. Always kind of a project, so we'll see if they want to keep trying with him.
Chris Hodges
Chris Hodges has been at UW for four years, despite it being pretty clear he wouldn't be a thing after year 2. He stayed on the roster that season because attrition/portal challenges meant they didn't need the spot. Last year, they moved some money around to honor his scholarship. I'd assume his spot is contingent on a bunch of folks leaving.
Incoming freshmen
Zach Kinziger - Seems like a classic UW shooting guard. Will be interesting to see if he's the kind who can play 10-15 MPG off the bat. Would be helpful.
Will Garlock - 7-foot center with range out of the Madison area. Probably will be good at some point. Big key is if he's ready to be an 8-10 MPG player as a true freshman. If so, allows some flexibility elsewhere.
Hayden Jones - A 6-foot-7 international wing, seems like more a power wing, maybe with some shooting (curious if down the line he ends up in that 4 spot UW likes).
Portal wants
Point guard - UW was fine with a combined effort last year, but if you can get a guy who can really fill the role, you'd love to have it.
Big - This is an interesting one. Were I them, I'd want a 4/5 type who can work the perimeter, but also anchor a lineup. Granted, those are hard to find. If they like Winter/Garlock/Greppi at center, then maybe another 4 to round things out with Amos.
Wing - They know they have Janicki and Blackwell (who might help at point). Maybe you hope some combo of Robison, Jones and Kinziger helps there, but considering the last two wing adds were All-Conference guys, definitely worth trying to sell that again.
Wildcard - There were some insider comments they could try for a fourth guy. Maybe another frontcourt guy if you add a true center. Maybe just beef up the perimeter more. Maybe just add talent.
Other questions
Some Badger fans think they should proceed with Blackwell as a de facto point. This is insane to me, but maybe Gard likes it?
Which freshmen project as Year 1 "solid backups"? If Garlock or Kinziger look ready to be a rotation guys, it changes some of how you portal shop.
Do any non-rotation guys step up? If Freitag, Robison or Greppi can be even 8 MPG guys, it changes a lot of dynamics. Hunter at this point feels like mediocre insurance/a flyer.
Any portal surprises? UW fans are lusting after Owen Freeman, as the Badgers were in that recruitment. That seems deeply unlikely to me, but one curveball would change a lot.
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Minnesota hires alum Niko Medved, who some thought would get the job last time.
Finished 2nd in the Mountain West this year, one spot behind Richard Pitino ;)
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Well, not happy to be here, but that's life sometimes. UW has an interesting rebuild, but should return some solid pieces. Time to look closer.
Welcome even though I wish it had taken you another week to get here.
Grrr!
I had a long post similar to yours but for Ohio State all typed up and then Chrome froze and I lost it.
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Minnesota hires alum Niko Medved, who some thought would get the job last time.
Finished 2nd in the Mountain West this year, one spot behind Richard Pitino ;)
Weird trivia. The 3 new head coaches hired into the Big Ten this year were the last 3 head coaches hired at Drake University.
Niko Medved was the head coach at Drake right before Darian DeVries. Medved left after 1 year at Drake to go to CSU, and is now going to Minnesota.
Darian DeVries was the head coach at Drake right before Ben McCollum. Devries left for WVU and is now going to Indiana
Ben Mccollum was the coach at Drake this year and is now going to Iowa.
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https://twitter.com/TravisBranham_/status/1904309915839066286
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I hope Villanova gets exactly what they deserve in poaching a coach who is willing to skip a mandatory team dinner, the night before the Sweet 16, to talk to them about a job. Hope he does the same to them, and then takes the UNC job
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Well, I guess we can officially get this puppy started now.
Wabbit Season!
Duck Season!
Wabbit Season!
Duck Season!
PORTAL SEASON!!!! Blam!!!
The portal is open and we've already got several Big Players already making moves.
On the Purdue side, Myles Colvin, Berg, and Brian Waddell are gone (and Furst has graduated). Looks like they have picked up Oscar Cluff from South Dakota State.
Michigan appears to have lost both Pippen and Donaldson. Wolf likely gone to the NBA.
MSU has lost Holloman. That seems like a surprise.
Iowa has lost, what? The whole team?
Same with Indiana.
These roster turnovers are really starting to affect my love of the game.
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I already started this thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/2025-2026-b1g-basketball-thread/) because my team's BB season ended a few weeks before your team's BB season.
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Ah. Sorry. Didn't see it on the front page.
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Just saw the MSU Booker has entered the portal.
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Just saw the MSU Booker has entered the portal.
Holloman is the more surprising one. Booker didnt even play by the end.
The you have this
https://twitter.com/ChrisVannini/status/1907128111080075482
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Tre Donaldson in the portal as well, lol
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Badgers lost two of the four guys a figured might leave. One was a veteran transfer from last year who wasn’t healthy. The other was a well-regarded freshman the staff told at least a year away.
It’s interesting to see spots where coaches still have some degree of control vs. not. Badgers looking at 3-4 spots open, which isn’t too bad. Probably two more young projects and one transfer who had an up and down year to keep an eye on.
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so. there's hope for Hoiberg?
I don't think so
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@ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) what's the story with Holloman going to the portal, I was surprised.
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Seems as simple got one shot to get a big payday, and hes not going to get it as a backup PG.
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Just saw the MSU Booker has entered the portal.
He was never going to work out at Michigan State. In my opinion, he's not a P4 player. Far too soft. My kid, who is 6'5" and was an excellent, albeit not very athletic, high school player kicked Booker's ass just by being tough and physical with him. When undersized, small school high school players push you around, it doesn't bode well for Big Ten success. He should go somewhere like Butler or Loyola and be a solid rotation player.
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Seems as simple got one shot to get a big payday, and hes not going to get it as a backup PG.
Outside of how weird that’s going to look on a resume, that’s honestly one of those that makes a level of sense.
you stick around for three years. You’re not good enough to hold onto the starting spot (having someone benched, and you replace them only for you to in turn get benched). if your coach isn’t gonna pay you to be a valuable rotation player , then maybe you do look around.
I do wonder if there’s a situation where the coach might say “if you can’t find a better offer, we would love to have you back.“, But I know coaches don’t particularly like that behavior.
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I think he would be totally welcomed back, but it sounds like his agent already got him his money, and it won't really be an open recruitment.
Yeah, this is one of those that only feels weird given how recent this all is. He's a rotational piece, and a captain. But he's a backup on a very good P5 team. He could probably start at 75% of P5 programs. And hell, given how crazy it is now, I could see him starting at a very good school. If MSU didn't have Fears, Holloman would be a perfectly acceptable starting PG. But he's not REALLY a PG, and there are increasing rumors that Richardson is coming back for his sophomore year, so he likely won't be starting next year either.
I don't know what MSU's total NIL commitment is, rumors are it's top 12ish. But keeping around good 4 year reserves is a luxury almost no school can afford next year. because it's not just him. If you match what do guys like Carson Cooper do? Is it a locker room issue? Does he then leave to get an equivalent offer? I don't feel sorry for coaches, they are well compensated. But I don't blame the ones who don't want to do it anymore either.
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He was never going to work out at Michigan State. In my opinion, he's not a P4 player. Far too soft. My kid, who is 6'5" and was an excellent, albeit not very athletic, high school player kicked Booker's ass just by being tough and physical with him. When undersized, small school high school players push you around, it doesn't bode well for Big Ten success. He should go somewhere like Butler or Loyola and be a solid rotation player.
Yeah, he was a low top 100 kid, who had a growth spurt, and everyone just kind of assumed he was going to be this elite stretch 4. He never was able to defend or rebound. He wasn't that good of a shooter. And it seemed like he was struggling to grow into his new body. I think there's a good player in there, just maybe not with the physicality of being a big man in the Big Ten
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-basketball/2025/03/155432/ohio-state-center-aaron-bradshaw-enters-transfer-portal-after-one-year-with-buckeyes
I don't know how much NIL the Buckeyes spent on Aaron Bradshaw but it was a complete waste. He was a 5* hped recruit to Kentucky where he was underwhelming as a freshman in the 23/24 season then came to Ohio State where he averaged 6 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 0.7 blocks as a sophomore in 24/25.
The Buckeyes also apparently swung and missed on Xavier Forward Dailyn Swain.
If anyone knows where I can find it, a website that simply tracks all the coming and going for Ohio State (and other schools but I'm obviously primarily concerned with Ohio State) would be helpful. Every time I try to type out something about Ohio State's status I get lost because I have to look up each player individually to try to figure out who is staying then look for internet rumors about possible additions.
Short version, leaving:
- SR G Meechie Johnson to the Portal to USCe (played at tOSU then USCe then tOSU now back to USCe)
- JR G Evan Mahaffey to the Portal to Akron (played at PSU then tOSU now Akron)
- SR G Micah Parrish to graduation.
- SR G Ques Glover to graduation.
- SO C Aaron Bradshaw to the Portal.
- SO C Austin Parks to the Portal. He couldn't get minutes from Bradshaw/Stewart/Njegovan so probably not a big loss.
I *THINK* that is all the known departures.
Additions:
- SO G Taison Chatman from injury.
- SO G Gabe Cupps from the Portal from Indiana. He has only one year of experience due to missing nearly all of 24/25 with a torn meniscus.
- FR(to be) G Dorian Jones a 4* HS Recruit who was recently named Ohio's "Mr Basketball".
- FR(to be) C A'mare Bynum a 4* HS Recruit out of Missouri.
By my count tOSU is down four guards and two centers and up three guards and one center so net they are -1 G and -1 C.
According to 247 Ohio State's class is #4 in the B1G and #29 nationally. Michigan is #1 in the B1G. Not to rain on Michigan's parade but, as I see it, these rankings are meaningless until final because one MAJOR Portal addition could probably push almost any team in the league ahead of Michigan. Furthermore, you really need to look at it as a "net" thing. Who knows what kind of money is being offered by our schools in the Portal which seems like a glorified auction.
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Maryland basketball hires Buzz Williams:
https://twitter.com/OdjHoops/status/1905680981572370697
(https://i.imgur.com/6zTuijn.png)
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Purdue's Camden Heide to the portal.
Losing Colvin was bad, but losing both hurts a lot.
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Purdue's Camden Heide to the portal.
Losing Colvin was bad, but losing both hurts a lot.
Hmmmm, that's a curious one to me.
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Purdue's Camden Heide to the portal.
Losing Colvin was bad, but losing both hurts a lot.
really surprised at Heide going in. Disappointing for sure.
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Maryland basketball hires Buzz Williams:
https://twitter.com/OdjHoops/status/1905680981572370697
(https://i.imgur.com/6zTuijn.png)
A&M is probably just a bad basketball school. We're like most other football centric schools, nobody really gives a shit about BB. Surprised it hasn't been said, but I think we lost our last coach (who at least won the SEC in BB) Mark Turgeon to Maryland as well.
Buzz probably reached a ceiling here at A&M, but he went out this year with a whimper. Gave up a couple of games to bad teams where we were winning handily, and played like complete crap in 3-4 other games that we should have easily won.
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I think he would be totally welcomed back, but it sounds like his agent already got him his money, and it won't really be an open recruitment.
Yeah, this is one of those that only feels weird given how recent this all is. He's a rotational piece, and a captain. But he's a backup on a very good P5 team. He could probably start at 75% of P5 programs. And hell, given how crazy it is now, I could see him starting at a very good school. If MSU didn't have Fears, Holloman would be a perfectly acceptable starting PG. But he's not REALLY a PG, and there are increasing rumors that Richardson is coming back for his sophomore year, so he likely won't be starting next year either.
I don't know what MSU's total NIL commitment is, rumors are it's top 12ish. But keeping around good 4 year reserves is a luxury almost no school can afford next year. because it's not just him. If you match what do guys like Carson Cooper do? Is it a locker room issue? Does he then leave to get an equivalent offer? I don't feel sorry for coaches, they are well compensated. But I don't blame the ones who don't want to do it anymore either.
A team like MSU this year has to be tough in the current era. They seemed to platoon at like 3-5 spots. That’ll be hard to hold together.
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Back end of UW bench may be cleared out. Sounds like the four-star freshman point was at least another year away. Transfer who was never healthy left, as did a guy who was allowed to hang on with the roster (UW, still trying not to directly cut kids). Rumors a late add project big is in that mix to depart.
I don’t think I’m the most concerned, but we’ll see.
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Now I know that I don't care about BB at A&M. I had the coaches mixed up, Turgeon never coached A&M in the SEC. He left in 2011, Billy Kennedy was our coach when we won the SEC. I had literally forgotten all about him, and he was one of the best coaches we ever had.
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A&M is probably just a bad basketball school. We're like most other football centric schools, nobody really gives a shit about BB. Surprised it hasn't been said, but I think we lost our last coach (who at least won the SEC in BB) Mark Turgeon to Maryland as well.
Buzz probably reached a ceiling here at A&M, but he went out this year with a whimper. Gave up a couple of games to bad teams where we were winning handily, and played like complete crap in 3-4 other games that we should have easily won.
I *THINK* that the reason Bama has improved dramatically of late is mostly tied in with the modern NIL/Portal system. There is a LOT more money in CFB than there is in CBB so any of the FB Helmets or near Helmets that choose to can spend a fraction of their FB Cash on BB and become at least decent at CBB.
If I had to guess, I would predict that over the next decade or so the FB powers will gain BB success and some of the BB Blue Bloods may find it hard to keep up.
Also, the football schools haven't generally been nearly as bad at BB as the BB powers have been at FB. Ohio State is probably #1 in BB success among FB schools all-time but Michigan, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, and some others aren't too far behind. Here are top FB programs from CFN (https://collegefootballnews.com/college-football/ap-college-football-poll-greatest-programs-all-time), based on all-time AP finishes with all-time BB ranking from the AP via Yahoo (https://sports.yahoo.com/ap-poll-college-basketball-rankings-022230492.html):
- Ohio State, 10
- Alabama, 37
- Oklahoma, 22
- Notre Dame, 16
- Michigan, 13
- USC, 64
- Texas, 44
- Nebraska, 122
- Penn State, 116
- Tennessee, 44
- Georgia, 113
- LSU, 46
- Florida State, 46
- Auburn, 66
- Florida, 43
Your own aTm Aggies are #23 in football and #108 in BB so they more closely fit the mold you identified than most of the football powers.
Of the top-15 all-time football programs three are also top-16 in BB (#10 tOSU, #13 Michigan, and #16 Notre Dame). Most of the rest have at least a decent BB history with the big exceptions being Nebraska, Penn State, and Georgia. Also note that this year's F4 includes two top-15 all-time FB Schools (#14 Auburn and #15 Florida) and that this year's E8 included those two plus two more (#2 Bama and #10 Tennessee) so I think the FB schools in general are already improving their CBB stock.
Doing this the other way around shows that while the FB powers are generally at least decent at BB, that is NOT true in the reverse. Here are the top BB schools with their FB rankings:
- Kentucky, 61
- North Carolina, 40
- Dook, 44
- Kansas, 64
- UCLA, 18
- Louisville, 62
- Arizona, 69
- Indiana, 68
- Michigan State,
- Ohio State, 1
- Syracuse, 46
- Cincinnati, 72
- Michigan, 5
- Illinois, 49
- Villanova, 86 (Villanova is ranked right behind Iowa Pre-Flight which only existed for a few years during WWII.
Of the top-15 all-time BB programs, Ohio State (1) and Michigan (5) are far-and-away the best at FB. Next is UCLA (18) then UNC (40).
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Now I know that I don't care about BB at A&M. I had the coaches mixed up, Turgeon never coached A&M in the SEC. He left in 2011, Billy Kennedy was our coach when we won the SEC. I had literally forgotten all about him, and he was one of the best coaches we ever had.
He missed the tournament six times in eight years?
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He missed the tournament six times in eight years?
Are you asking me or telling me ? I have no idea. I only remember that he had several pretty good seasons here and we won ( co-champions) the SEC in BB.
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Also, I despise the whole notion of the NCAA tournament being some kind of high water mark. 64 teams or whatever, you could have a 32 team tournament and have the exact same final 4 99% of the time.
I remember a few years ago A&M was left out of the tourney after a dismal start to the season but a very strong 2nd half. Anyways, we go on to the NIT and nearly win the damn thing. I think we played in the championship game. I remember thinking I would much rather win the NIT than be a mediocre team in a field of 64 where you would probably only make it to the 2nd round.
Either way, I just never cared much for BB on any level.
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I don't think it's a high water mark, it's sort of a minimum standard mark. I view making the tournament like making a bowl game. It means you were at least mediocre.
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Nebraska’s first transfer portal addition of the 2025 cycle is officially in the books, as Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort announced his commitment to the Huskers on Friday.
The 6-foot-7 wing took his first portal visit to Lincoln last week and also visited Illinois this past weekend. Ohio State had also been in the mix, as was a potential return to the Hawkeyes.
“Nebraska was one of my first calls,” Sandfort said. “Fred (Hoiberg) called me pretty much right away, and I knew it was going to be a place I wanted to look at again just from my previous relationships. Obviously, I’m really close with Fred. I grew up going to his camps (at Iowa State), so there was a really tight relationship there.
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I don't think it's a high water mark, it's sort of a minimum standard mark. I view making the tournament like making a bowl game. It means you were at least mediocre.
I think, depending on your program, it isn’t necessarily an annual minimum, but it’s definitely a big dividing mark. Like if you are a mediocre program like South Carolina or something, making it at least once every three years and more often than not twice every three years is a lot of job security.
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Badgers at a transfer from Virginia, Andrew Rhode.
Interesting player. Was a highly productive lead guard at a low Major. Transferred to UVA and was terrible two years ago. Last year he was a decidedly good spot up three-point shooter and handed out a lot of assists.
He’s 6-6, so it will be interesting to see if he spends more time as a wing, or doing some point stuff. Or if they can recruit a set or talent where he ends up being a very nice sixth man.
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the Huskers are a less than mediocre program and if they're not making the dance, Hoiberg should be gone!
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For Ohio State, making the Tournament is a minimum standard.
Matta did marvelous things at Ohio State. He made two F4's and an NCG. He won multiple league titles including a bunch in a row and at one point he had (IIRC) four or five straight S16's. He missed the Tournament twice and wasn't given the opportunity to miss it a third time.
Holtmann was a disaster at Ohio State but the catalyst to get rid of him was when it became apparent that the Buckeyes were about to miss the Tournament for the second straight year.
Buckeye coaches don't have to make it EVERY year, but they are on notice after one miss and generally gone after a second consecutive miss.
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I think, depending on your program, it isn’t necessarily an annual minimum, but it’s definitely a big dividing mark. Like if you are a mediocre program like South Carolina or something, making it at least once every three years and more often than not twice every three years is a lot of job security.
Yeah, I guess making a bowl is probably a little easier than making the tournament. I guess making the NCAA or NIT (under the old format) is probably on par with making a bowl.
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Yeah, I guess making a bowl is probably a little easier than making the tournament. I guess making the NCAA or NIT (under the old format) is probably on par with making a bowl.
I do think the bowl and tournament are for the majority of big programs a “head above water line.”
If a lot of programs are at least bowling most of the time, the coach is in OK shape. If you’re making the tournament basically every year, you’re in pretty good shape. And only a few programs have really high standards for making deeper runs.
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For Ohio State, making the Tournament is a minimum standard.
Matta did marvelous things at Ohio State. He made two F4's and an NCG. He won multiple league titles including a bunch in a row and at one point he had (IIRC) four or five straight S16's. He missed the Tournament twice and wasn't given the opportunity to miss it a third time.
Holtmann was a disaster at Ohio State but the catalyst to get rid of him was when it became apparent that the Buckeyes were about to miss the Tournament for the second straight year.
Buckeye coaches don't have to make it EVERY year, but they are on notice after one miss and generally gone after a second consecutive miss.
Yep. For Purdue, making the tournament is a minimum standard as well.
Painter had a four year stretch (07-08 through 10-11) where he finished first or second in the B1G. In those four years he made the S16 twice despite losing Hummel to season-ending injury twice. He was a young coach and was clearly a winner.
Then he missed the tourney two years in a row, was on the hot seat, and fans wanted him gone.
I firmly believe that the only reason he kept his job is that I think he went in to the AD and said "Here are the mistakes that I think I've made that got us here, and here is my plan to fix those mistakes." But a third year I'm 100% sure would have tanked him.
You just don't miss the tournament at programs like this. And if you do, you sure as HELL don't do it twice in a row.
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I firmly believe that the only reason he kept his job is that I think he went in to the AD and said "Here are the mistakes that I think I've made that got us here, and here is my plan to fix those mistakes."
(https://i.imgflip.com/9prdpl.jpg)
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Yep. For Purdue, making the tournament is a minimum standard as well.
Painter had a four year stretch (07-08 through 10-11) where he finished first or second in the B1G. In those four years he made the S16 twice despite losing Hummel to season-ending injury twice. He was a young coach and was clearly a winner.
Then he missed the tourney two years in a row, was on the hot seat, and fans wanted him gone.
I firmly believe that the only reason he kept his job is that I think he went in to the AD and said "Here are the mistakes that I think I've made that got us here, and here is my plan to fix those mistakes." But a third year I'm 100% sure would have tanked him.
You just don't miss the tournament at programs like this. And if you do, you sure as HELL don't do it twice in a row.
To fill in info on Ohio State / Matta, there did not appear to be anything equivalent to what you explained between Painter and the Purdue AD. Then Matta swung and missed on a few recruits and it just appeared that things were not going to turn around and that was that.
With Holtmann there wasn't as much leash because he didn't have any notable accomplishments prior to his missed Tournaments. Painter had those good years BEFORE he missed two straight. Matta had an even higher level of success* so when he missed a couple Tournaments I think the AD would/should have given him time to get right except that it just didn't look like there was any kind of plan.
*Matta's success:
Matta started at Ohio State for the 2004/5 season. They didn't go to the Tournament his first year but they did have a HUMONGOUS upset win over previously undefeated and #1 ranked Illinois in the last game of the regular season. Then, he had a 10 year run that would be good even at a Blue Blood (years are ending/Tournament year):
- 2006: B1G Champs, NCAA R32
- 2007: B1G Champs, B1G Tournament Champs, NCAA CG
- 2008: NIT Champs - We got screwed not getting a NCAA bid but made the best of it.
- 2009: NCAA
- 2010: B1G Champs, B1G Tournament Champs, S16
- 2011: B1G Champs, B1G Tournament Champs, S16
- 2012: B1G Champs, F4
- 2013: B1G Tournament Champs, E8
- 2014: NCAA
- 2015: R32
In ten years that is:
- 5 B1G Championships
- 4 B1G Tournament Championships
- 9 NCAA Appearances (and an NIT Championship the year we got screwed)
- 5 S16's including four straight from 2010-2013
- 3 E8's
- 2 F4's
- 1 NCAA CG Appearance
After the 2012/13 season I truly believed that we (Ohio State) had found what I refer to as "our Izzo". Matta was still under 50 and I thought he was a guy who would lead us to the promised land (Ohio State hasn't won a BB NC since Bobby Knight was a backup on the 1960 team) and keep our program among the best in the nation for decades.
Then things deteriorated. The Buckeyes were middling in the league the next three seasons (5th, 6th, 7th place finishes). They still made the Tournament the first two of those years but they were one-and-done in 2014 and 1-1 in 2015. Then they missed the Tournament altogether in 2016 and in 2017 they weren't even in the bubble conversation and it was all over.
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*Matta's success:
Reminiscing because I'm missing it because Ohio State BB has been crap for a decade now:
Matta's best two teams in terms of banners were clearly the Oden/Conley NCG team in 2006/07 and the F4 team in 2011/12. Both of those teams won the B1G Regular season title (2011/12 was a co-Championship) and they both made it to the B1G Tournament CG with the 06/7 team winning and the 11/12 team losing. Matta also had an E8 team in 2013 that was pretty good.
The teams above were good and had deeper NCAA runs but I will always believe that Matta's best team was the 2010/11 team. They finished the regular season 29-2/16-2 and won the B1G by two games over Purdue. Their only losses were both on the road to the B1G's second (Purdue) and third (Wisconsin) place teams. Not only that but they avenged both losses handily at home:
- They lost in Mackey by 13 but beat Purdue in Columbus by 23
- They lost in the Kohl Center by four but beat Wisconsin in Columbus by 28
The team then won the B1G Tournament and entered the NCAA Tournament at #1 in the polls at 32-2.
Something that @SuperMario (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1596) asked about recently, these were the NCAA games that I attended in Cleveland. Ohio State just obliterated #16 UT-San Antonio in the first round and #8 George Mason in the second round.
Funny story about GMU:
George Mason had made a deep run to the F4 as a #11 seed in the 2006 NCAA Tournament. At the arena in Cleveland a few years later in 2011 for the NCAA opening round games a lot of the George Mason fans were wearing T-Shirts that had "We are this year's George Mason" printed on them. It was a neat idea for a T-shirt but their fans were oddly confident for considering their second round opponent was the #1 team in the nation. Going into the second round game between Ohio State and George Mason the impression I got from the GMU fans was that they not only thought that their team could win, but they seemed to think it was reasonably likely that their team WOULD win. Ohio State just beat the living daylights out of them. The Buckeyes literally doubled them up in the first half and led 52-26 at halftime. Then the Buckeyes played a motley collection of backups, walk-ons, mascots, and cheerleaders in the second half and still outscored them 46-40 en-route to a 32 point 98-66 win.
The Kentucky loss in the 2011 NCAA Tournament is probably the most painful tOSU BB loss for me because that team could have won it all. In the S16 they just couldn't shoot. Some of that is a credit to Kentucky's defense, of course. Obviously Kentucky's defense was a bit better than George Mason's but the Buckeyes missed plenty of open looks as well. In spite of an unbelievably bad shooting night, the Buckeyes had a shot in the air to win the game at the buzzer. Unfortunately that shot missed and that ended the season for what was, IMHO Matta's best team and quite possibly the best team ever at Ohio State.
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To fill in info on Ohio State / Matta, there did not appear to be anything equivalent to what you explained between Painter and the Purdue AD. Then Matta swung and missed on a few recruits and it just appeared that things were not going to turn around and that was that.
With Holtmann there wasn't as much leash because he didn't have any notable accomplishments prior to his missed Tournaments. Painter had those good years BEFORE he missed two straight. Matta had an even higher level of success* so when he missed a couple Tournaments I think the AD would/should have given him time to get right except that it just didn't look like there was any kind of plan.
Full disclosure: I have no inside knowledge. I'm going based on what I saw, and a lot of what was reported on the Purdue fan blogs at the time.
IMHO what I think Painter did is admit not that he'd missed on recruits--but he'd hit on the wrong ones. For as young as he was, Painter is an old-school coach. Doesn't suffer fools or prima donnas. Some of his public statements around that time was that he'd chased STARZ instead of trusting his gut and finding "Purdue guys". Which then got him pilloried by the portion of the fandom that worried he'd self-ceiling'd the program by not setting his recruiting sights on the guys who could really move the needle.
I think it's also possible that he could have leaned on the distraction of his divorce during those two seasons, which was a situation that was already concluding.
I obviously don't know the Matta situation, but he was a lot older AFAIK. I don't know if he would have gone to the AD with a sense of contrition, like it's believed Painter did. And obviously Matta didn't have the OSU legacy sort of thing that Painter did, who played under Keady and was basically picked as the "heir in waiting" for Keady at an age FAR younger than you'd ever expect a Purdue coach to take the reins. I do think that had something to do with it... Like a "we invested in you knowing you were young and not experienced, so we'll accept that you're learning from your mistakes--just don't let it happen again" sort of thing. Matta likely wouldn't have been offered the same grace by a school as he didn't have the personal history to warrant it.
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All makes me feel better about Wisconsin...although I would like to see them advance beyond the second round.
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Yeah , making the NIT/NCAA is about as difficult as making a bowl. But in football the cut line is higher. Making an NCAA tournament is worth a lot more than an NIT. But everything under the CFP is about the same. If you have three straight 8-4 seasons, thats essentially the same as threee straight 6-6 seasons. But that essentially the difference between three straight second round exits and three straoght NITs
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If you have three straight 8-4 seasons, thats essentially the same as threee straight 6-6 seasons.
In terms of raw outcome, that’s probably true. In terms of general program vibe/coach security at most programs, I bet it’s not.
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(https://i.imgur.com/rtZj0vP.jpeg)
Someone needs to show this quote about college basketball do the decision-makers in college football.
It's from Jay Bilas' article about how he got flack for picking all #1 seeds this year, even knowing that it's almost never all #1 seeds.
He's an expert and/or spends tons of time on it and knows it's unlikely, but felt they'd all make it to the Final 4. But he also knows we're LUCKY to have the four best teams in it. He knows it rarely happens and that the formatting pushes against it.
Why in the holy hell devise a system in which you're LUCKY to have the best 4 teams playing it off to determine the champion?!? Why would you ever copy such a system?!? This is a fantastic argument against it.
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Why in the holy hell devise a system in which you're LUCKY to have the best 4 teams playing it off to determine the champion?!?
How are you sure that the four #1 seeds are the best 4 teams?
After all, you criticize pollsters all the time for merely arranging teams by number of losses. That includes the CFP committee, who are all supposed to be experts. You just assume that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is infallable and the four #1 seeds are always the best four teams in the tournament?
What if a #2 or #3 seed is actually a better team, but ran through a rough stretch during the regular season, and didn't have the resume to be a #1? Is it a travesty if they actually win the tournament because they weren't a #1 seed coming into it?
And if you *do* think the Selection Committee is infallible, why have a tournament at all? Why not declare the top #1 seed the national champion? After all, if they can be completely trusted to know who the best 4 teams are, why can't they be trusted to know who the best 1 team is?
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How are you sure that the four #1 seeds are the best 4 teams?
After all, you criticize pollsters all the time for merely arranging teams by number of losses. That includes the CFP committee, who are all supposed to be experts. You just assume that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is infallable and the four #1 seeds are always the best four teams in the tournament?
What if a #2 or #3 seed is actually a better team, but ran through a rough stretch during the regular season, and didn't have the resume to be a #1? Is it a travesty if they actually win the tournament because they weren't a #1 seed coming into it?
And if you *do* think the Selection Committee is infallible, why have a tournament at all? Why not declare the top #1 seed the national champion? After all, if they can be completely trusted to know who the best 4 teams are, why can't they be trusted to know who the best 1 team is?
Well, when you have them seeded, that's one thing. Then you get an expert picking them to all advance, because he views them as the best teams, and that's pretty good. So a group (committee) + expert(s) in agreement. Those seedings and predictions are based on a full season of 35 games or so. Maybe just have the 1-seeds play it off (hey, we had that in football!)
Your idea about crowning a national champion without a tournament is a great idea. Thank you.
vs
having a massive tournament in which upsets are inevitable. 6 rounds of 1-off games to advance.
Cinderellas, buzzer-beaters, exciting stuff.
And it's precisely what Bilas says it is: a spectacle
It's not a good method of which to determine the best team. It's a good method to get attention.
No, college football should not mimic it.
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attention is the goal
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Well, when you have them seeded, that's one thing. Then you get an expert picking them to all advance, because he views them as the best teams, and that's pretty good. So a group (committee) + expert(s) in agreement. Those seedings and predictions are based on a full season of 35 games or so. Maybe just have the 1-seeds play it off (hey, we had that in football!)
All I'm saying is that you think obviously this year it was right. But what about last year. Only two #1 seeds made it the Final Four. Only three #1 or #2 seeds advanced to the Elite Eight. Yet 12 of the #1-4 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen... So clearly the earlier rounds were mostly chalk.
Is that an indication that the tournament is broken because two of them didn't advance? Or is it perhaps evidence that maybe the selection committee is NOT quite good enough at this to say that we should just have the four #1 seeds duke it out and leave everyone else out of it? Maybe with ~330 teams that mostly don't play each other, it's not exactly easy to identify the four best teams?
Your idea about crowning a national champion without a tournament is a great idea. Thank you.
I'd love it in football. Make it a beauty pageant. I'm cool with that.
Sad it'll never happen, and it's going the wrong direction. That's one area we can agree.
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All I'm saying is that you think obviously this year it was right. But what about last year. Only two #1 seeds made it the Final Four. Only three #1 or #2 seeds advanced to the Elite Eight. Yet 12 of the #1-4 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen... So clearly the earlier rounds were mostly chalk.
Is that an indication that the tournament is broken because two of them didn't advance?
It's a combination of imperfect seeding, sure, but also that upsets are inevitable.
Fewer games = fewer upsets
The seedings are what they are, but at least they're based on a sample size of 35 games. The sin is in having 1-game rounds to determine a champion. When you're getting 8 seeds and 11 seeds making final 4s, that's less about seeding and more about the 1-game-and-you're-out design of the damn thing.
All I'm saying is that college basketball has a very poor system for determining it's champion, attention be damned, and that college football should obviously not copy it.
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He was never going to work out at Michigan State. In my opinion, he's not a P4 player. Far too soft. My kid, who is 6'5" and was an excellent, albeit not very athletic, high school player kicked Booker's ass just by being tough and physical with him. When undersized, small school high school players push you around, it doesn't bode well for Big Ten success. He should go somewhere like Butler or Loyola and be a solid rotation player.
Wow, UCLA for $1.5 million. Good for him. Maybe he figures it out, but Mick Cronin doesn't seem like the type who doesn't care if his bigs rebound or defend
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Michigan lands the #1 player out of the portal, a big from UAB.
Dusty May said he didn't want to run a portal program, but the problem is now, how can you not when you take a new job? He said he had to lean on the portal this year, or he wouldn't have had a roster, which is true. But unless you commit to tough times, and building from scratch, once you make that first team a portal team, you need to keep going back there because all of the guys he brought in are now gone, so his returning roster looks as bad as it did a year ago. Unless you had your job pre portal, you almost have to be a portal team, because you inherited nothing. And now that teams like Michigan, St. John's, and Louisville did what they did, and won quickly, I don't think the option of "patience because we don't want to be a portal team" is an option
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#9 for Florida is a massive douchebag. He is out there throwing elbows while simultaneously whining about every whistle
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I guess he's the only one.
So Florida doesn't have to play Duke? I'll take it.
*EDIT* You guys have a 6-page 25-26 basketball thread?!?! Jesus.
Exhibit 193483491 on how we're different.
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https://twitter.com/Verbose_Dutch/status/1909069662299512987
(https://i.imgur.com/2eXdo7Q.png)
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https://twitter.com/Verbose_Dutch/status/1909069662299512987
(https://i.imgur.com/2eXdo7Q.png)
Cool. my team’s new point guard is very experienced.
(Also, next year there won’t be that many kids with COVID years left, and the year after, they’ll be close to extinct)
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Hey, if you're never going to sniff the NBA, might as well milk the college NIL money as long as you can.
Besides, a lot of people go to college for 7 years.
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Cool. my team’s new point guard is very experienced.
(Also, next year there won’t be that many kids with COVID years left, and the year after, they’ll be close to extinct)
Sure, but the number of kids challenging NCAA years-of-eligibility rules in court, is going to start increasing.
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Besides, a lot of people go to college for 7 years.
I know, they're called doctors.
https://youtu.be/UOsQ2epsI2M?si=nLuHqpfQcF7dHs9h
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Sure, but the number of kids challenging NCAA years-of-eligibility rules in court, is going to start increasing.
Very possible. It’s funny because the two teams around the Covid year at Wisconsin actually started a pair of guys who played six years the old-fashioned way. Which of the time felt a hair more than mundane.
It’s also funny because both had the option to come back because of Covid, and they turned it down Because NIL wasn’t a thing back then.
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Auburn brining back Chad Baker-Mazara who will turn 26 during the season.
He is 3 months younger than Jaren Jackson Jr., who will be in his 8th NBA season. And 9 months younger than Luka Doncic
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I mean if you like minor league basketball, there is an outlet for you. Id prefer 22 year olds not play high school basketball, or 18 year olds play middle school basketball. But I guess if you can get paid to do so, nobody can stop your eligibility?
If I paid a 16 year old to play on my 12 year olds team, telling him no is restricting his earning potential
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Michigan lands the #1 player out of the portal, a big from UAB.
Dusty May said he didn't want to run a portal program, but the problem is now, how can you not when you take a new job? He said he had to lean on the portal this year, or he wouldn't have had a roster, which is true. But unless you commit to tough times, and building from scratch, once you make that first team a portal team, you need to keep going back there because all of the guys he brought in are now gone, so his returning roster looks as bad as it did a year ago. Unless you had your job pre portal, you almost have to be a portal team, because you inherited nothing. And now that teams like Michigan, St. John's, and Louisville did what they did, and won quickly, I don't think the option of "patience because we don't want to be a portal team" is an option
Apparently they paid him over $4 million, and have spent over $7 million on transfers thus far. That's roughly on par with being the #16 pick in the NBA Draft on a one year basis
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New Iowa coach Ben McCollum can now field an entire starting 5 from the players he has brought over from Drake. Banks, the 6th man of the year in the MVC, reportedly committed Friday.
There's a good chance this won't be the starting 5, since the #Hawkeyes also have a former 4-star recruit, Cooper Koch, on the roster. It does show how man players made the move.
(https://i.imgur.com/obu7T12.jpeg)
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(https://i.imgur.com/H40OCj3.jpeg)
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Purdue filled out their roster yesterday in the portal, a couple of good pieces 6'4" point guard from Israel, 18 year old w/ 4 years eligibility ... already played some pro ball and a good 3 pt shooting 6'7" wing. Boilers are going to be Top 3 preseason next year and expectations will be as high as our National Championship run last year.
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I’m interested when UW will land its stretch 4 type. Roster seems short on that spot unless one of the 6-5 guys gets notably stronger.
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Chad Baker-Mazara in the portal. Next year he will be 26, and at his 5th school
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Chad Baker-Mazara in the portal. Next year he will be 26, and at his 5th school
I wonder what Jay Bilas really thinks of the situation ... I don't listen to his games much anymore since there is no BIG on ESPN.
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(https://i.imgur.com/DxbdmEp.png)
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I like this.
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1928454144664207722 (https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1928454144664207722)
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https://twitter.com/jessetemple/status/1930947610367434787 (https://twitter.com/jessetemple/status/1930947610367434787)
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https://twitter.com/jessetemple/status/1930947610367434787 (https://twitter.com/jessetemple/status/1930947610367434787)
He’s a really nice case for the upside of NIL.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-five-college-basketball-teams-most-likely-to-win-first-ncaa-tournament-title-in-2026/amp/
According to CBS the five programs most like to win their first ever CBB NC in 2025/26 are led by our own Purdue Boilermakers:
- Purdue
- Houston
- BYU
- Alabama
- Auburn
The last first-time Champ was Baylor in 2021 who beat Gonzaga in a title game that could only produce a first-time Champion. Since then both Houston and Purdue have been to the title game but the Champs have been Kansas, UCONN2x, and Florida.
It is interesting to me how different this is from the situation in CFB where the last first-time Champion was Florida nearly three decades ago and there aren't any programs that look like they have a plausible chance in the foreseeable future.
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I thought Houston was supposed to be the runaway preseason #1?
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It is interesting to me how different this is from the situation in CFB where the last first-time Champion was Florida nearly three decades ago and there aren't any programs that look like they have a plausible chance in the foreseeable future.
Oregon?
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-five-college-basketball-teams-most-likely-to-win-first-ncaa-tournament-title-in-2026/amp/
According to CBS the five programs most like to win their first ever CBB NC in 2025/26 are led by our own Purdue Boilermakers:
- Purdue
- Houston
- BYU
- Alabama
- Auburn
The last first-time Champ was Baylor in 2021 who beat Gonzaga in a title game that could only produce a first-time Champion. Since then both Houston and Purdue have been to the title game but the Champs have been Kansas, UCONN2x, and Florida.
It is interesting to me how different this is from the situation in CFB where the last first-time Champion was Florida nearly three decades ago and there aren't any programs that look like they have a plausible chance in the foreseeable future.
That is interesting.
I wonder if it’s a couple things.
-Winning a CBB title is theoretically easier and more random? Basketball games can be fluky. You won’t lose a poll tiebreaker as teams did historically.
-A greater percentage of “power” teams are eligible. In the poll era, 44 percent of current P4 teams have a title, and you could argue a set of those are mid majors. All told, 29 or so current power programs have titles (and some of have quasi-mid-major history), but there are more “power” teams, so that number is something like 37 percent.
Wild one could build a list like that and not have Gonzaga, Houston or Texas Tech. That sport feels like it has more spontaneity to it.
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Also, that is relying on one national title, that began in 1939. I think Purdue has a Helms national title, correct? It would be like if you only credited AP National champs in football. Only one per year, and starting in 1936.
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Also, that is relying on one national title, that began in 1939. I think Purdue has a Helms national title, correct? It would be like if you only credited AP National champs in football. Only one per year, and starting in 1936.
I just went with the poll era ones. If you count the ones for Cal, Vandy, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Stanford, Rutgers, it gets much weirder.
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Oregon?
That is a fair point, they do seem like a plausible NC.
That said, it is one vs a lot more in BB.
Also, that is relying on one national title, that began in 1939. I think Purdue has a Helms national title, correct? It would be like if you only credited AP National champs in football. Only one per year, and starting in 1936.
IIRC, that IS what I was comparing. If you go by AP and only count AP Champions, the most recent first-time NC was Florida in 1996.
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That is a fair point, they do seem like a plausible NC.
That said, it is one vs a lot more in BB.
IIRC, that IS what I was comparing. If you go by AP and only count AP Champions, the most recent first-time NC was Florida in 1996.
Ah, got it.
Yeah, I think part of it is how fluky is the flukiest football champ? I mean BYU is the obvious one. But BYU was actually #5 that year in SP+. I'd be curious as to the pre-tourney KenPom rankings of every college basketball champion. I wouldn't be shocked if the average ranking was below #5. The smaller rosters make fielding the best roster more attainable in basketball, but beyond that you don't even need to be the best team to win it
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Well the portal guy MSU brought in from FAU tore his patella tendon in a shooting drill yesterday.
3 point shooting was already an issue, and now it looks scary bad. He was our one chance at having a 3 who could shoot
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Well the portal guy MSU brought in from FAU tore his patella tendon in a shooting drill yesterday.
3 point shooting was already an issue, and now it looks scary bad. He was our one chance at having a 3 who could shoot
Is there any indication how long until he'll be back?
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They said hes out for the season
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UConn, Arkansas, Kentucky, UNC, and Duke. Fun times
https://twitter.com/MSU_Basketball/status/1965448981942513839
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Apparently they are expanding the conference tournament to include all 18
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Just give everyone a f'ing trophy.
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Apparently they are expanding the conference tournament to include all 18
Source, any indication of structure?
Just give everyone a f'ing trophy.
It isn't about that, it is about the almighty dollar. If all 18 teams go to the League Tournament that means 17 games they can sell TV rights and tickets to.
As far as structure, we talked about this before but next to nobody will travel any appreciable distance to watch their #15 seeded favorite B1G BB team take on the #18 seeded cellar-dwellers in a battle to determine which team will get crushed by the #2 seed.
Basic structure options as I see it:
#1, get down to a geometric sequence of 2 (2, 4, 8, 16) then everybody plays:
First Round:
Second Round:
- #1 vs 16/17
- #2 vs 15/18
- #3 vs #14
- #4 vs #13
- #5 vs #12
- #6 vs #11
- #7 vs #10
- #8 vs #9
#2 feed teams in four at a time (this is historically how they've done it with adjustments as necessary to account for the then current number of teams:
First Round:
Second Round:
- #9 vs 16/17
- #10 vs 15/18
- #11 vs #14
- #12 vs #13
Third Round:
- #5 vs 12/13
- #6 vs 11/14
- #7 vs 10/15/18
- #8 vs 9/16/17
Fourth Round:
- #1 vs 8/9/16/17
- #2 vs 7/10/15/18
- #3 vs 6/11/14
- #4 vs 5/12/13
What I would suggest is to have the top-4 host the opening rounds then the winners of those rounds meet at a neutral site for a B1G Final Four as follows:
First Round:
- #15 vs #18 at #2
- #16 vs #17 at #1
Second Round:
- #1 vs 16/17 at #1
- #2 vs 15/18 at #2
- #3 vs #14 at #3
- #4 vs #13 at #4
- #5 vs #12 at #4
- #6 vs #11 at #3
- #7 vs #10 at #2
- #8 vs #9 at #1
Third Round:
- 1/16/17 vs 8/9 at #1
- 2/15/18 vs 7/10 at #2
- 3/14 vs 6/11 at #3
- 4/13 vs 5/12 at #4
Then go to a neutral site for the Final Four
My suggestion would be to either eliminate the games on the final Sunday of the regular season or make the schedule flexible such that no team mathematically in contention for a first round game has to play on Sunday then:
- Travel day on Sunday at least for the bottom-4
- Travel day on Monday for everybody
- First round on Tuesday at top-2 seeds
- Second round on Wednesday at top-4 seeds
- Third round on Thursday at top-4 seeds
- Travel day on Friday
- Semi-Finals on Saturday at a neutral site
- Championship on Sunday at a neutral site
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Well the portal guy MSU brought in from FAU tore his patella tendon in a shooting drill yesterday.
3 point shooting was already an issue, and now it looks scary bad. He was our one chance at having a 3 who could shoot
Izzo will find a way. There's so many seasons I thought MSU would have a rough road and wouldn't be a typical MSU team, yet he finds a way and coaches the team to a competitive level every darn year.
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Source, any indication of structure?
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1968769562725261699
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https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1968769562725261699
Thanks, curious about structure.
I think they've always done the "feed in" method because it is difficult to handle more than four games per day at any one site so logistically it is easiest to just feed in the next four highest seeds each day.
Doing that with 18 teams would make for a LONG tournament, by day:
- 15-18 play to get down to 16
- 9-14 and day 1 winners play to get down to 12
- 5-8 and day 2 winners play to get down to 8
- 1-4 and day 3 winners play to get down to 4
- Day 4 winners play to get down to 2
- Championship
You'd have to have the arena for all of Tuesday-Sunday.
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Bruce Pearl retiring
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Well, that just means that the Indiana fans are going to be throwing the checkbook at him in three years.
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Well, that just means that the Indiana fans are going to be throwing the checkbook at him in three years.
He's apparently running for Congress, so plenty of people will be throwing checkbooks at him
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Purdue Non-con schedule in finalized. Purdue has been fighting neck-and-neck with MSU for years now as to who can come up with the harder schedule.
@ Kentucky (exhibition) #9
UIndy
Evansville
Oakland
@Alabama #17
Akron
Memphis (Bahamas)
Tx Tch (#10) or Wake Forrest (Bahamas)
E. Ill
Iowa St. #18
Marquette
Auburn (Indy) #14
Kent St.
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Hold my beer, says Greg Gard. He also does this every year.
(https://i.imgur.com/nATmu91.png)
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Purdue Non-con schedule in finalized. Purdue has been fighting neck-and-neck with MSU for years now as to who can come up with the harder schedule.
@ Kentucky (exhibition) #9
UIndy
Evansville
Oakland
@Alabama #17
Akron
Memphis (Bahamas)
Tx Tch (#10) or Wake Forrest (Bahamas)
E. Ill
Iowa St. #18
Marquette
Auburn (Indy) #14
Kent St.
The bummer is the death of the great 8 team events
Feast Week used to be one of my favorite sports weeks of the year
Seems like way more of these 4 team events, trying to set up a great championship. Like that Purdue-TT event. MSU has one set up for an MSU-UNC championship
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...has started. Winthrop and Queens is on Youtube right now. Not sure if we have a thread somewhere else. Most everyone tips off tonight, mostly hidden on Big Ten Plus. You'd think with all the networks they have they could throw them on Amazon or Peacock or something.
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Bump for merge
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Bump for merge
Thanks man!
I enjoy having basketball on during the day. TV people should do more of that.
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...has started. Winthrop and Queens is on Youtube right now. Not sure if we have a thread somewhere else. Most everyone tips off tonight, mostly hidden on Big Ten Plus. You'd think with all the networks they have they could throw them on Amazon or Peacock or something.
The early game is the Field of 68s attempt to recreate the old 24 hours of hoops, sort of. I think they have a deal with YouTube.
As to why most games are hidden on Big Ten+, guessing putting MSU-Cornell there doesn't really piss anyone off, and may get MSU fans to pony up and buy it.
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Thanks man!
I enjoy having basketball on during the day. TV people should do more of that.
I said that a couple years ago. Some of the small conferences, like the Patriot League, did it in the 2020-21 season. I'm assuming it was a COVID thing, because crowds were non existent anyway, and it gave them some leeway if there were positives.
Why not do that anyway. If ESPNU had a Patriot League doubleheader on Tuesday and Thursday afternoon or whatever, I bet it would do decently
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Wisconsin is playing the Campbell Camels today. It would be nice if it was in the afternoon or even morning.
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Nebraska is playing someone - not a team that will put up much of a game, I'd guess
no interest here
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(https://i.imgur.com/X6GscKV.jpeg)
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:34:
(https://i.imgur.com/fneYpT0.jpeg)
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(https://i.imgur.com/X6GscKV.jpeg)
Which is why I can't be mad if Purdue wins the Big Ten.
Congrats on Michigan and UCLA trying to buy a title
MSU and Purdue hate each other, but should respect each other as the last true great programs in the conference. Granted only until Painter and Izzo retire
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Which is why I can't be mad if Purdue wins the Big Ten.
Congrats on Michigan and UCLA trying to buy a title
MSU and Purdue hate each other, but should respect each other as the last true great programs in the conference. Granted only until Painter and Izzo retire
Yeah, and I don't see Izzo and Painter as the type who want to "buy a title"...
Which isn't to say that they're not getting on board with the new world order; I'm sure they're on top of the NIL game. But I think they know that it takes a lot more to have a successful program than an open pocketbook.
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Yeah, and I don't see Izzo and Painter as the type who want to "buy a title"...
Which isn't to say that they're not getting on board with the new world order; I'm sure they're on top of the NIL game. But I think they know that it takes a lot more to have a successful program than an open pocketbook.
I think they both spend to retain recruits. Dusty May said he wasn't a transactional program...and then went out and bought the most expensive transfer. It's above board, but if I was a Michigan fan I could not care less about how my basketball team does after two straight years of buying the best transfers.
Literally you are just rooting for laundry at the most extreme level
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Pretty sure I already posted this, but they need to fix the preseason tournaments. They are trash this year, as most good schools are in shitty, fake 4 team tournaments set up for one easy one, and then one made for TV matchup.
Feast Week is the best part of college basketball during the first 3 weeks of the season
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Well Colgate is 7-15 on 2s and 6-14 on 3s.
Typical irritating early season game
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Definitely expected some backslide on offense, losing their top 3 scorers from a year ago.
Defense needs to be better, and thought it would be. Tough to make a call after one game
Clear that for now Fears is going to need to play 35 minutes for the time being. Things look real bad when hes off the floor
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Buckeyes took on The System. Kinda struggled to defend, which I think will be a theme all season.
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Buckeyes took on The System. Kinda struggled to defend, which I think will be a theme all season.
OSU scoring chart is about the straightest line you will ever see. No streaks, no droughts. Just a pretty straight 3 ppm for 40 minutes
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OSU scoring chart is about the straightest line you will ever see. No streaks, no droughts. Just a pretty straight 3 ppm for 40 minutes
(https://i.imgur.com/zA9pvJW.png)
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Arizona’s freshman Koa Peat wowed in his debut, scoring 30 and leading the #13 Wildcats over #3 Florida in Las Vegas last night.
(https://i.imgur.com/oFqqFxd.png)
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Pretty much most of the Big has played their first game against Cupcake U and no surprises so far (through Oregon gave it a good effort).
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https://www.on3.com/teams/purdue-boilermakers/news/7-foot-four-star-center-sinan-huan-commits-to-purdue/
Does Painter have a tree outside Mackey that produces 7+ foot tall genetic freaks annually?
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https://www.on3.com/teams/purdue-boilermakers/news/7-foot-four-star-center-sinan-huan-commits-to-purdue/
Does Painter have a tree outside Mackey that produces 7+ foot tall genetic freaks annually?
Shouldn't be a surprise. After all, Sinan said both of these things:
- "Purdue’s track record in developing big men also played a big role in my decision. Their system has produced many successful bigs with different body types and skill sets, and during my visit I got to see how structured and intentional their player development program is."
- "Purdue has an impressive roster retention rate, which allows me to have some time and structure to develop without feeling rushed in my first year."
On the first point, Painter has a strong track record with bigs. And as he mentions, it's not like Painter expects every single one to be carbon copies of the others. He's shown that he's willing and able to adapt to the skill sets of the player. On the second point, bigs are typically slower to transition to the college game than guards--often because it's the first time that they're regularly playing against anyone else remotely close to their own size. I can see how in the world of the transfer portal and basically free agency, knowing that you're walking into a situation that is going to meaningfully invest in developing your skills and not just see you as a 1-year rental before you go somewhere else, has to be reassuring.
If you were a 7-foot recruit, wouldn't Purdue be very near the top of your list? It certainly would be high on mine.
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Not to derail this conversation, but a good coach imbues the program with an identity that people buy into. This is part of Purdue's identity--and why people would want to go there, and would want to stay there.
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Big game tonight for Purdue @ Alabama. Saw the Alabama / St Johns game over the weekend and I'm kinda shocked that the line is only Alabama -3.5. I think Bama wins by ~10 tonight (at least if they play like they did at MSG over the weekend). Renn is coming back from an mild injury, so I expect it will be at least a half before he warms up.
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Not to derail this conversation, but a good coach imbues the program with an identity that people buy into. This is part of Purdue's identity--and why people would want to go there, and would want to stay there.
The problem is that's tough to do, if you weren't in place prior to the change.
Purdue could do it. MSU could do it.
Dusty May said he didn't want to run a transfer program at Michigan, but he needed to in Year 1. And who could blame him. Guys come in, and flip a roster, and have success. Dusty May was one of those. But the two best of those transfer moved on. In prior years, maybe UM gets to the NIT last year, those guys are back for another year, and you grown. Instead your two best players are gone. So what do you do? Go backwards? No, he brings in more transfers, including the #1 transfer in the country. And they are seemingly good again. But because the expectations are that you can turn it around in one year, you have to, and once you get on the transfer treadmill, its tough to get off.
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Absolutely it's tough to do. That's why Painter is Painter, and Purdue is Purdue. Same with Izzo. They are rare and valuable coaches.
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Shouldn't be a surprise. After all, Sinan said both of these things:
- "Purdue’s track record in developing big men also played a big role in my decision. Their system has produced many successful bigs with different body types and skill sets, and during my visit I got to see how structured and intentional their player development program is."
- "Purdue has an impressive roster retention rate, which allows me to have some time and structure to develop without feeling rushed in my first year."
On the first point, Painter has a strong track record with bigs. And as he mentions, it's not like Painter expects every single one to be carbon copies of the others. He's shown that he's willing and able to adapt to the skill sets of the player. On the second point, bigs are typically slower to transition to the college game than guards--often because it's the first time that they're regularly playing against anyone else remotely close to their own size. I can see how in the world of the transfer portal and basically free agency, knowing that you're walking into a situation that is going to meaningfully invest in developing your skills and not just see you as a 1-year rental before you go somewhere else, has to be reassuring.
If you were a 7-foot recruit, wouldn't Purdue be very near the top of your list? It certainly would be high on mine.
Not to derail this conversation, but a good coach imbues the program with an identity that people buy into. This is part of Purdue's identity--and why people would want to go there, and would want to stay there.
I agree with both of you. From an opposing fan perspective it is just at the point where you assume that Purdue will have some massive 7+ footer under the rim EVERY FREAKING YEAR and that he won't be a 7' oaf, he'll actually be able to play. Good for Painter/Purdue.
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Good point. They never get the pedestrian 7 footers, like Kosta Koufus or BJ Mullens.
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Good point. They never get the pedestrian 7 footers, like Kosta Koufus or BJ Mullens.
Well it is either that they don't get them or that they successfully develop them into quality players. Those two are great examples of guys who had the height but simply weren't decent BB players. Purdue's guys have the height AND the ability. That is a tribute to Painter because he is doing some combination of recruiting the right ginormous guys and developing the ginormous guys into quality BB players.
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The problem is that's tough to do, if you weren't in place prior to the change.
Purdue could do it. MSU could do it.
Dusty May said he didn't want to run a transfer program at Michigan, but he needed to in Year 1. And who could blame him. Guys come in, and flip a roster, and have success. Dusty May was one of those. But the two best of those transfer moved on. In prior years, maybe UM gets to the NIT last year, those guys are back for another year, and you grown. Instead your two best players are gone. So what do you do? Go backwards? No, he brings in more transfers, including the #1 transfer in the country. And they are seemingly good again. But because the expectations are that you can turn it around in one year, you have to, and once you get on the transfer treadmill, its tough to get off.
Eh. It's not like Painter and Izzo aren't availing themselves of the transfer market. Heck, even before the portal turned everything into the wild west, Purdue was taking transfers who would have to sit a year, and making as much use of the immediate grad transfer process as they felt they needed to.
I think SFBadge is making a statement more about institutional culture. MSU, Purdue, as well as Wisconsin, have a culture of stability, and the program has an identity. That goes partly hand in hand with having long-tenured coaches, and in every single one of those cases, coaches who ascended into their roles as proteges of the long-tenured successful coach before them.
Undoubtedly it's harder for a coach like May coming in today. And yeah, when you take over a program in the current environment, nobody is going to wait for you to get "your guys" when you can put together a successful team via transfers. But ultimately May is going to have to build his program's culture and identity, built around a core that comes [mostly] from HS recruits, with transfers on an "as needed" basis rather than a constantly rotating roster every new season.
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No, but they aren't building their teams out of the portal.
In the portal era, I think Tyson Walker is the only impact transfer they've brought in, and that was 4 years ago. They added no transfers in 2022 or 2023
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But ultimately May is going to have to build his program's culture and identity, built around a core that comes [mostly] from HS recruits, with transfers on an "as needed" basis rather than a constantly rotating roster every new season.
That's the problem, how do you establish that?
He started 4 transfers last year. 2 of his 3 2024 recruits transferred out.
6 of his top 7 players in terms of minutes this year are transfers
Again, not blaming him, it's just impossible to build purely through recruiting anymore, because the current structure doesn't allow you to build up.
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Well it is either that they don't get them or that they successfully develop them into quality players. Those two are great examples of guys who had the height but simply weren't decent BB players. Purdue's guys have the height AND the ability. That is a tribute to Painter because he is doing some combination of recruiting the right ginormous guys and developing the ginormous guys into quality BB players.
Yes. For a number of those guys, they didn't just come in on day 1 and dominate. AJ Hammons was very polished coming in, and Zach Edey was just a monster. But it's not like every 7-footer that ever wore the uniform has been the same.
Isaac Haas was VERY raw early. And he never had or developed all that much athleticism. He never left the post. And there's a reason he went undrafted and ended up playing in China. I'm not going to say he wasn't a great Purdue Boilermaker; he was. He was a matchup nightmare at the collegiate level that most people probably thought they'd not see again for a long time--until Edey showed up and was even more of a matchup challenge lol. But he had some pretty significant limits to his game.
Arguably, Matt Haarms never really panned out. He was good enough to play, but he was never a dominant big. He was kinda like a 7'3" forward, not someone who dominated in the paint--although he was a hell of a shot blocker. Isaac Haas, followed by Trevion Williams, were the guys banging down low. And he left Purdue to transfer [down IMHO] to BYU.
And nobody is talking about Will Berg. While nobody expected him to do anything behind Edey as a freshman, he was a sophomore last year and even after the Jacobsen injury, barely cracked 6 minutes per game. And has now transferred down to Wichita State.
So it's not like there haven't been misses.
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That's the problem, how do you establish that?
He started 4 transfers last year. 2 of his 3 2024 recruits transferred out.
6 of his top 7 players in terms of minutes this year are transfers
Again, not blaming him, it's just impossible to build purely through recruiting anymore, because the current structure doesn't allow you to build up.
You wait and watch. We won't be able to determine if he's pulled it off for another 2-3 years. But it's not like he isn't recruiting.
I'm sure 2024 recruiting was a bit of a wash being new to the program. But one of his recruits transferred down to CMU, so perhaps he wasn't good enough to be a Wolverine. And Pippin's kid went back to California; maybe Ann Arbor or May wasn't the right fit.
But now he's got 5 incoming 2025 HS recruits. 3 of them seem to be consensus 4-star guys. He's listed (per wiki) as already having 4 recruits for the 2026 class.
If the core of his roster is built around those recruits come 2027 or 2028, then you can say he's pulled it off. But it's too early now.
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I think the Portal/NIL era also means that there will be some highly variable years for two reasons:
- Sometimes the transfers just aren't going to work out or aren't going to mesh well together, and
- It is difficult even for the bluest of blue bloods to maintain quality depth because guys who aren't getting PT and aren't getting paid are going to leave for more PT and more cash.
So there are going to be years where the new QB doesn't live up to expectations and the transfer LBer doesn't fit well in your system and a couple O-linemen get injured and pretty soon your year-after-year NC Contender is struggling to find six wins to go bowling. Same thing in BB (since this is a BB thread), there are going to be transfers that just don't work out like the ones Ohio State got last year.
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UW has done a pretty solid job mixing in a few transfers with the home-grown kids that they pay to retain.
They went from Storr to Tonje, and Tonje to Boyd. That's not bad.
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The funny thing is how bad Field of 68's coverage is. It's a bunch of guys who were (probably due to normal media) fired from their mainstream college basketball jobs. They were good, but such is media now, you better either be Stephen A. Smith, or be willing to work for pennies.
But man, they put out a ton of college basketball content, and just slurp the programs who actually give them access. I don't blame them, but it's sad how these clearly good basketball analysts have to push those programs who give them access. You would think Illinois and Auburn were the two greatest programs in the country. Followed closely by Texas Tech
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I was listening to an an interview with UMs $4 million man, and they were asking him why he picked Michigan, and he was talking about a bunch of stuff other than money. It's a stupid question, and stupid he has to make up an answer. This is like Reggie White saying God told him to go to Green bay in the early days of NFL free agency.
Can we just get to a place where it's the same. Obviously he might take a small discount to play at Michigan vs. playing at a non contender, same as pros. But stop asking these kids why. They are free agents, and they sign for money, particularly out of the portal where its usually a 1 year year deal.
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Big win for Purdue last night, in Tuscloosa. Huge night for Smith. This team is for real.
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Big win for Purdue last night, in Tuscloosa. Huge night for Smith. This team is for real.
Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan seem like the leaders in the clubhouse.
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MSU, Illinois, and now Purdue all won their ranked vs. ranked matchups.
Next up is UCLA against #5 Arizona tonight
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Peacock. WTF. I guess I'm glad I have it. They are also taking UW against UCLA, USC and IL.
(https://i.imgur.com/9r9keqH.png)
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(https://i.imgflip.com/ac43ov.jpg)
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(https://media.tenor.com/YmdbtgtLevkAAAAC/lancejones-lancebuckets.gif)
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Trying to figure out the Buckeyes. So far they look better than last year but with two big caveats:
- That isn't saying much, and
- It is really hard to tell because the opposition hasn't been very good.
They host Notre Dame Sunday in a game that the WorldWide Leader says they should win (74.2%) and they might be ranked next week if they do.
Next week they host Directional-Michigan in a game that ESPN says should be a laugher (98.6%).
Turkey week they host yet another laugher (Mt. St. Mary's, 97.5%) then travel to Pittsburgh on Black Friday. The Pittsburgh game seems to have been scheduled to attract the least possible attention from Ohio State fans. It is the day between Thanksgiving and The Game so I'm guessing the bulk of Ohio State's fans will not know it happened until sometime in December or January when they look up from Football long enough to check out the BB team. Nonetheless, ESPN says that the Buckeyes should win at Pitt (58.8%).
After the Pitt game, the Buckeyes play their two December league games and the split is interesting. They go to Evanston to play Northwestern on Saturday, December 6 (that is the day of the B1GCG so if the football team makes that, practically zero Ohio State fans will even know this is going on) then host #14 Illinois on Tuesday, December 9. I find the split interesting because if it were reversed I would be fairly confident that Ohio State would lose in Champaign and beat the Wildcats at home but with this split 2-0, 0-2, 1-1, and 1-1 the other way all seem reasonably likely. ESPN has them as a slight underdog in both games (42% at NU, 45.7% vs IL).
They finish December with two coin-toss neutral site OOC games (49.1% vs WVU in Cleveland, 56.1% vs UNC in Atlanta [that seems WAY high]) and yet another home gimmie (98.1% vs Grambling).
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Trying to figure out the Buckeyes. So far they look better than last year but with two big caveats:
- That isn't saying much, and
- It is really hard to tell because the opposition hasn't been very good.
They host Notre Dame Sunday in a game that the WorldWide Leader says they should win (74.2%) and they might be ranked next week if they do.
Next week they host Directional-Michigan in a game that ESPN says should be a laugher (98.6%).
Turkey week they host yet another laugher (Mt. St. Mary's, 97.5%) then travel to Pittsburgh on Black Friday. The Pittsburgh game seems to have been scheduled to attract the least possible attention from Ohio State fans. It is the day between Thanksgiving and The Game so I'm guessing the bulk of Ohio State's fans will not know it happened until sometime in December or January when they look up from Football long enough to check out the BB team. Nonetheless, ESPN says that the Buckeyes should win at Pitt (58.8%).
After the Pitt game, the Buckeyes play their two December league games and the split is interesting. They go to Evanston to play Northwestern on Saturday, December 6 (that is the day of the B1GCG so if the football team makes that, practically zero Ohio State fans will even know this is going on) then host #14 Illinois on Tuesday, December 9. I find the split interesting because if it were reversed I would be fairly confident that Ohio State would lose in Champaign and beat the Wildcats at home but with this split 2-0, 0-2, 1-1, and 1-1 the other way all seem reasonably likely. ESPN has them as a slight underdog in both games (42% at NU, 45.7% vs IL).
They finish December with two coin-toss neutral site OOC games (49.1% vs WVU in Cleveland, 56.1% vs UNC in Atlanta [that seems WAY high]) and yet another home gimmie (98.1% vs Grambling).
The transfers aren't totally worthless this year, that should help
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The transfers aren't totally worthless this year, that should help
Yeah, last year's transfers were a complete disaster
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This could be something.
https://twitter.com/CBBcontent/status/1989190007790137728 (https://twitter.com/CBBcontent/status/1989190007790137728)
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Since its not premarital sex, he may be fine
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Since its not premarital sex, he may be fine
I'm pretty sure the Mormons aren't real big on drinking either.
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Violation of the BYU Honor Code for sure.
https://honorcode.byu.edu/ (https://honorcode.byu.edu/)
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I'm pretty sure the Mormons aren't real big on drinking either.
or smokin or anything fun
enjoyed a fine cigar on the back 9 yesterday afternoon!
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MSU, Illinois, and now Purdue all won their ranked vs. ranked matchups.
Next up is UCLA against #5 Arizona tonight
Well last night, not so much. UCLA lost to Arizona, and Michigan barely beat an extremely shitty TCU
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or smokin or anything fun
enjoyed a fine cigar on the back 9 yesterday afternoon!
Jim McMahon probably had a pretty good time.
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Jim McMahon probably had a pretty good time.
The OG soaker
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Ouch Pharrel Payne. That sucks
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(https://i.imgur.com/fIQnRPZ.jpeg)
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Nebraska with nation's longest winning streak in hoops.
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and Volleyball
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Buckeyes survive Notre Dame.
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Hopefully this will embed...
It's good when you can get someone so out of sorts with a ball fake that you almost have time to look at them derisively, shake your head, and then line up your three-pointer before draining it.
https://twitter.com/BigTenNetwork/status/1990220465923580372
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I like how the defender didn't even try to hustle back. Kind of like a hat tip...."You earned that open look, I'll just stay over here."
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With Purdue posting a tremendous true road win over top-10 Alabama and a convincing win over twice-defending MAC champ Akron, and with Houston having a one-point home win over #22 Auburn...
Purdue is back to #1 in both polls!
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(https://preview.redd.it/after-two-decent-games-from-fields-chicago-is-ready-to-v0-q84da5zwytsb1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=fd0a8cd30e29e2c919ae9398f718cba3144d3b4b)
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Not crowning anything...
I don't expect a Buckeye to understand, but gaining this level of national attention is not something we Boiler fans are used to. We know we've had a historically excellent basketball program... But actually being seen as #1 nationally is new to us.
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Yeah I know, I was just horsing around a little bit. And on that note...
There's NO WAY Purdue doesn't win it all this year.
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Not crowning anything...
I don't expect a Buckeye to understand, but gaining this level of national attention is not something we Boiler fans are used to. We know we've had a historically excellent basketball program... But actually being seen as #1 nationally is new to us.
I thought Purdue had tons of regular season success, the issue is that they weren't recognized because lots of people don't pay attention until the tournament, where Purdue had underachieved
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I should mention that I think this is shaping up to be a very complete basketball team.
2024-25 we had a problem at the 5 spot. And that was a "ceiling" problem because we were forcing TKR into playing that role. He could *do* it, but he couldn't excel at it. And forcing him to do it took him away from his natural role at the 4.
What we're seeing with 7'5" Daniel Jacobsen (soph, but missed essentially his entire frosh year due to a broken leg) and 6'11" bruiser Oscar Cluff (transfer senior) is that things are looking like we're going to have a center-by-committee that can be out there for 40 minutes and actually compete with other front courts. They're very different, but Jacobsen knocked down a 3 last night that wasn't some late-shot-clock desperation heave, so he's seemingly got the green light from Painter to do that, which stretches the defense. And Cluff is a bully on the boards.
Which means TKR can move to the 4, his natural spot. And just takes pressure off everyone else.
Loyer is Loyer. ELITE shooter. If you leave him for an instant to help on defense, he lights you up from the perimeter. If you guard him close, he may have a quiet game, but then it opens things up for Smith and TKR. Pick your poison.
The other significant addition to Jacobsen being healthy and Cluff as a transfer is Omer Mayer, who is a really good point guard who can take some minutes to keep Braden Smith from getting run down, and seems to be talented as hell in his own right. Think "Chris Kramer body/toughness with actual offensive skills".
And yes... If you're reading closely...
"My Boilermaker has a first name, it's O-S-C-A-R... My Boilermaker has a second name, it's M-A-Y-E-R..." :57:
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I thought Purdue had tons of regular season success, the issue is that they weren't recognized because lots of people don't pay attention until the tournament, where Purdue had underachieved
I think Purdue has had the historical "identity" of being a "lunchpail" team. Guys who weren't always the most heavily recruited. Who weren't the most athletic or the most dynamic. Who didn't have all the STARZ. But guys who bought into the program, and the team, played hard and smart, and thus they won a LOT of games... But in March fell because "lunchpail" doesn't beat STARZ, because STARZ wins in March.
I think Paint has somewhat changed the narrative with guys like Carsen Edwards, Jaden Ivey, and 2x NPOY Zach Edey. You can say Zach's a human unicorn, and he sorta is, but the screen graphic that they tossed up in last night's game is that it's the 14th straight year Purdue has had a 7-footer on the roster. And as we pointed out upthread, he just got another big [pun intended] HS commit.
I don't think Purdue was recognized because Purdue-style basketball wasn't sexy enough. It was "drag you into the mud and strangle you" basketball. But I think now it's still strangle you in the mud basketball, but more along the lines of bikini mud wrestling :57:
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I drafted Jacobsen on my college fantasy team, which with my luck, will make him the first Purdue giant to not turn into a problem for everyone
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I think Purdue has had the historical "identity" of being a "lunchpail" team. Guys who weren't always the most heavily recruited. Who weren't the most athletic or the most dynamic. Who didn't have all the STARZ. But guys who bought into the program, and the team, played hard and smart, and thus they won a LOT of games... But in March fell because "lunchpail" doesn't beat STARZ, because STARZ wins in March.
I think Paint has somewhat changed the narrative with guys like Carsen Edwards, Jaden Ivey, and 2x NPOY Zach Edey. You can say Zach's a human unicorn, and he sorta is, but the screen graphic that they tossed up in last night's game is that it's the 14th straight year Purdue has had a 7-footer on the roster. And as we pointed out upthread, he just got another big [pun intended] HS commit.
I don't think Purdue was recognized because Purdue-style basketball wasn't sexy enough. It was "drag you into the mud and strangle you" basketball. But I think now it's still strangle you in the mud basketball, but more along the lines of bikini mud wrestling :57:
Putting the image of Brian Cardinal in a bikini out of my mind, perhaps the fact that the identity of Purdue when I first started following was Glenn Robinson slightly changes that for me
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I drafted Jacobsen on my college fantasy team, which with my luck, will make him the first Purdue giant to not turn into a problem for everyone
The problem you'll have with Jacobsen is twofold:
- With the other players around him, he's not going to be a centerpiece like Edey. I don't think he's as physically dominant despite his size, and he's still raw as a sophomore that missed last year due to early injury. The big three of Purdue are still Smith/TKR/Loyer, and everyone else is supporting cast.
- Much like fantasy football where you don't want a "committee back", i.e. someone who is in a running back by committee, that might be what you have between Jacobsen and Cluff this year. You've got big-by-committee. You'd be better off with a worse big who has no competition than a potentially better big who's splitting the workload.
I think as a senior transfer, Cluff may be out of eligibility after this year (not 100% tho). Which would put Jacobsen in the lead role next year. So drafting Jacobsen might have just been a year too early.
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Putting the image of Brian Cardinal in a bikini out of my mind, perhaps the fact that the identity of Purdue when I first started following was Glenn Robinson slightly changes that for me
Cardinal's nickname was "The Custodian"... So he wasn't in the bikini, he cleaned up the arena after the wrestling was over :57:
Big Dog was before my time, so I get that aspect. But I would sense that Purdue would still have that stigma that if you don't put the right guards around a dude like that, you don't win in March.
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Cardinal's nickname was "The Custodian"... So he wasn't in the bikini, he cleaned up the arena after the wrestling was over :57:
Big Dog was before my time, so I get that aspect. But I would sense that Purdue would still have that stigma that if you don't put the right guards around a dude like that, you don't win in March.
He's still the best college player I've ever seen. I go back to like 1991. We are used to one dude carrying a team now. And that's been a thing for like 20+ years, since the one and done.
In that era, no way. The best teams had 2-3 legit NBA players on them. Purdue had Big Dog, and maybe Cuonzo Martin? It was also an era where there were maybe 2 college games on per night on ESPN, 3 on Saturday, but Raycom picked up all of the Big Ten Saturday games, so you knew every Big Ten player. Robinson's game wasn't the type to translate to a YouTube highlight reel, but it felt like you could pencil him in for 30 every game, because he was so versatile.
Also helps that those early 2000s Bucks teams with him, Ray Allen and Sam Cassell were my favorite team at the time
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With MSU's destruction of Kentucky, they now have beaten 2 ranked SEC teams, and Purdue beat Alabama.
Illinois plays Alabama tonight, and Michigan has Auburn I believe next week? Good chance to establish the conference so that once we start playing each other it's all Q1 games.
Other end, in addition to those, Florida lost to Arizona, and Auburn lost to Houston, so SEC really struggling early in marquee games.
I think the ACC looks to be bouncing back somewhat, with UNC, NC State and Louisville all looking better than last year.
Big XII as good as ever. WVU beating Pitt wasn't surprising, but they killed them
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Although Washington needing 2OT to beat Southern at home isn't great
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The Big is quietly putting together a pretty good non-con season so far. 69-4, with the only losses being UCLA to a top 5 Arizona team, Maryland to Georgetown, Minnesota on the road to a decent Missouri team, and Washington on the road @ Baylor.
Purdue has taken down ranked Alabama (and a sneaky good Akron team that won the MAC last year)
MSU has now taken down ranked Arkansas and Kentucky.
Illinois has taken down ranked TT
IU and Maryland have taken down Marquette
OSU survived ND (a win is a win though)
Iowa has taken down Xavier
Nebraska took out Oklahoma
There are still some big tests left, but so far it is looking good for the Big Ten to look very strong this year.
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it's early
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Badgers get their first real test on Friday against a talented BYU team (The program that knocked them out of the tournament last year).
Interested to see UW face a real opponent. Curious what the rotation looks like when some chips are down.
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Illinois in trouble at the United Center. Looking like our streak of wins is about to end.
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Illinois goes down to Alabama. Not good for the conference but it makes Purdue's win look better, so I'll allow it. ;)
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Illinois goes down to Alabama. Not good for the conference but it makes Purdue's win look better, so I'll allow it. ;)
And then Purdue loses to Illinois later...
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And then Purdue loses to Illinois later...
It's possible, sure... But they only play once this season, and it's in Mackey, so I don't think it's all that likely.
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It's possible, sure... But they only play once this season, and it's in Mackey, so I don't think it's all that likely.
Should be a great game. Illinois is still not healthy and are already pretty good.
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(https://i.imgur.com/ZiV0Lam.jpeg)
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The refs in that Purdue Memphis game were......not good.
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The Trojans needed 3OT but all our teams won last night. We have some tough games tonight:
Wisconsin is an underdog at BYU.
Northwestern is an underdog in Wedt Virginia against UVA.
#1 Purdue has #15 TxTech in the Bahamas.
Nebraska is a 1.5 point favorite over KSU in KC.
The rest are double-digit favorites.
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The refs in that Purdue Memphis game were......not good.
Yeah, that was an officiating mess. Glad Purdue still pulled it out.
Memphis is exactly the type of team that has given us fits in the past... Long and athletic.
Hopefully it's not the same officiating crew tonight.
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(https://i.imgur.com/gQV6vuU.png)
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Purdue and Texas Tech were in a battle, until Purdue was up about 26-23. Then Purdue just went off. It was reminiscent to me of the Purdue vs Kansas NCAAT game years ago, where Purdue was hanging in until about 5 minutes into the second half, and then the hoop became the size of the ocean for Kansas and they simply made EVERYTHING they looked at.
Purdue at 26-23 went on a 20-0 run and blew the game wide open, and went to halftime with a 49-26 lead. That pretty much broke TTU and Purdue cruised in the second to a 30-point victory letting depth players and then some walk-ons into the game with 4 minutes left.
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Wisconsin shit the bed in SLC. BYU is really good. Money matters.
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[img width=273.619 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/gQV6vuU.png[/img]
Nebraska was a 1.5 point favorite and won but didn't cover.
Rough night for the league:
Wisconsin got smoked. They were a road underdog so the loss was expected but not by 28.
Northwestern lost as expected.
Rutgers was a huge favorite and lost badly at home to Central Connecticut.
At least UCLA, Purdue, and MSU took care of business.
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is that one of the metrics the committee considers at the end of the season???
covering the spread?
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is that one of the metrics the committee considers at the end of the season???
covering the spread?
It's baked into some of the metrics. Not covering the spread per se, but MOV/MOL
I'll say Purdue's A game is the best A game of any team in the country. They looked scary good last night. I think at their best, the only team that can play with them is maybe Houston, simply because their A defense can be shut down dominant
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Both PSU and Minnesota are slightly underdogs at home today so maybe we can pick up a positive upset or two.
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Both PSU and Minnesota are slightly underdogs at home today so maybe we can pick up a positive upset or two.
Or not :(
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These 4 team MTEs with manufactured title games, like the one MSU is playing in, is killing these 8 team MTEs.
Might be the worst Maui field ever. Atlantis has 6 mid-majors, plus Vandy and VT. Preseason NIT I don't think exists. MSU played in some decent field in those tournaments in Anaheim and Disney World. I think the Anaheim one is gone. The Disney one is 4 blah teams.
The Players Era event has good teams, but it's not a tournament.
Not having a good Maui to watch this week is a bummer
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These 4 team MTEs with manufactured title games, like the one MSU is playing in, is killing these 8 team MTEs.
Might be the worst Maui field ever. Atlantis has 6 mid-majors, plus Vandy and VT. Preseason NIT I don't think exists. MSU played in some decent field in those tournaments in Anaheim and Disney World. I think the Anaheim one is gone. The Disney one is 4 blah teams.
The Players Era event has good teams, but it's not a tournament.
Not having a good Maui to watch this week is a bummer
Agreed, the old eight-team actual tournaments were so much more fun for fans.
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These 4 team MTEs with manufactured title games, like the one MSU is playing in, is killing these 8 team MTEs.
Might be the worst Maui field ever. Atlantis has 6 mid-majors, plus Vandy and VT. Preseason NIT I don't think exists. MSU played in some decent field in those tournaments in Anaheim and Disney World. I think the Anaheim one is gone. The Disney one is 4 blah teams.
The Players Era event has good teams, but it's not a tournament.
Not having a good Maui to watch this week is a bummer
Rhode Island-Towson playing in the first game of the Disney World tournament.
In 2008 we played Maryland in the first round of that tournament, which also featured ranked Tennessee, Gonzaga, Georgetown teams, plus Oklahoma State and Wichita.
In 2014 we played Kansas in the championship of that tournament, the semis were Kansas-Tennessee and MSU-Marquette. The first round games were a little blah
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What is the reason for the drop in the 8 team MTE's ... you get 3 games instead of 2, not sure why schools are moving away from those?
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What is the reason for the drop in the 8 team MTE's ... you get 3 games instead of 2, not sure why schools are moving away from those?
I have to believe it is a money issue. I think the organizers get better ratings (and thus more money) out of a guaranteed name-vs-name game than they do out of an organic Championship that *COULD* end up being a name team against some no-name.
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Rutgers sure shouldn't have been paid to attend
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This Maui scene is sad. Zero chance I watch any of these games
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I cant even fake hate Michigan, because they buy a whole new roster every year. Its just a bunch of random dudes.
I can at least hate Purdue because their players have been a pain in the ass for multiple years
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This Maui scene is sad. Zero chance I watch any of these games
I mean the Maui scene is great. The Maui field is sad. The Vegas scene is sad, but the field is good
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(https://i.imgur.com/BAAZBWH.jpeg)
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I cant even fake hate Michigan, because they buy a whole new roster every year. Its just a bunch of random dudes.
I can at least hate Purdue because their players have been a pain in the ass for multiple years
I'd love to see lineup data on Michigan, mostly because that starting lineup they have is preposterous with the number of bigs they stuff in there.
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Yesterday was not good for the league. The Michigan schools, Indiana, USC, tOSU, PSU, UNL, and Iowa all won but they were all favored so no good surprises.
Maryland got stuffed in a trash can by Gonzaga, Rutgers lost to Notre Dame, and Oregon lost badly to SDSU in Las Vegas.
Today and tonight:
- USC is a small favorite over ASU in Maui.
- Michigan is a slight dog to Gonzaga in Vegas.
- Iowa is favored to beat Gran Canyon.
- Maryland is a big dog to Bama in Vegas.
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I'd love to see lineup data on Michigan, mostly because that starting lineup they have is preposterous with the number of bigs they stuff in there.
If you are a big man, why would you NOT go to Michigan at this point?
Granted, if you are a huge man, probably still Purdue
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If you are a big man, why would you NOT go to Michigan at this point?
Granted, if you are a huge man, probably still Purdue
At this point, you might not because they barely have enough minutes to go around for the ones they have.
I assume they’re not closing games with three guys who are 6-foot-9 or taller, two of which can’t shoot. But maybe they are.
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and they've got to be close to running out of money
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At this point, you might not because they barely have enough minutes to go around for the ones they have.
I assume they’re not closing games with three guys who are 6-foot-9 or taller, two of which can’t shoot. But maybe they are.
Yeah, that makes things difficult. Purdue has had years where they've wanted to put two bigs on the floor at the same time and it's not easy to do. You need a big who can play in the paint and defend in the paint. And then you need a big with the offensive skill set to play outside the paint, but ALSO the capability to defend the other team's 4.
I can think of a couple years where they've tried it but it didn't pan out:
- Purdue had Isaac Haas, Caleb Swanigan, and Vince Edwards on the roster at the same time. They wanted to play Haas at center, Swanigan at PF, and Vince at the wing. But Swanigan wasn't enough of an offensive threat at the 4 to make it work and couldn't properly defend the 4. Swanigan was an undersized 5 and nothing would change that. Edwards could offensively hold things down at the wing but wasn't quick enough to defend the other team's 3. He's a natural 4, not a 3.
- I recall one year with Trevion Williams and Matt Haarms. Haarms was basically a 7'3" power forward, whereas Williams was a 6'9" center. Ultimately neither player was 100% suited to their role, and it held the team back.
As I mentioned upthread, the problem for Purdue last year is that we basically had zero bigs. Jacobsen broke his leg at the beginning of the season, and the bigs we had behind him just weren't very good. So we were forced into playing TKR at the 5 where he's serviceable, but he's a natural 4. That limited the ceiling of the team.
This year, Purdue has a 1-2 punch at the 5 with Cluff and Jacobsen. They'll never be on the floor at the same time, but they're both actually pretty good. We're seeing 40-minute stat lines combining the two that rival Edey-level production. And the fact that we have both of them allows TKR to play the 4, his natural position. He never has to roll up to the 5. So even though Purdue is not going to completely use their height to dominate, they have the right pieces height-wise to actually have a very good TEAM.
There's a saying in basketball that who you are is who you can guard. If you can play the 4 on the offensive end but you can't guard the 4, you're not a 4.
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and they've got to be close to running out of money
Michigan always has more money
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Yeah, that makes things difficult. Purdue has had years where they've wanted to put two bigs on the floor at the same time and it's not easy to do. You need a big who can play in the paint and defend in the paint. And then you need a big with the offensive skill set to play outside the paint, but ALSO the capability to defend the other team's 4.
I can think of a couple years where they've tried it but it didn't pan out:
- Purdue had Isaac Haas, Caleb Swanigan, and Vince Edwards on the roster at the same time. They wanted to play Haas at center, Swanigan at PF, and Vince at the wing. But Swanigan wasn't enough of an offensive threat at the 4 to make it work and couldn't properly defend the 4. Swanigan was an undersized 5 and nothing would change that. Edwards could offensively hold things down at the wing but wasn't quick enough to defend the other team's 3. He's a natural 4, not a 3.
- I recall one year with Trevion Williams and Matt Haarms. Haarms was basically a 7'3" power forward, whereas Williams was a 6'9" center. Ultimately neither player was 100% suited to their role, and it held the team back.
As I mentioned upthread, the problem for Purdue last year is that we basically had zero bigs. Jacobsen broke his leg at the beginning of the season, and the bigs we had behind him just weren't very good. So we were forced into playing TKR at the 5 where he's serviceable, but he's a natural 4. That limited the ceiling of the team.
This year, Purdue has a 1-2 punch at the 5 with Cluff and Jacobsen. They'll never be on the floor at the same time, but they're both actually pretty good. We're seeing 40-minute stat lines combining the two that rival Edey-level production. And the fact that we have both of them allows TKR to play the 4, his natural position. He never has to roll up to the 5. So even though Purdue is not going to completely use their height to dominate, they have the right pieces height-wise to actually have a very good TEAM.
There's a saying in basketball that who you are is who you can guard. If you can play the 4 on the offensive end but you can't guard the 4, you're not a 4.
My lesson on this came from Bo Ryan and to a lesser extent Gard.
Fans on message boards, including me, were always wanting people to play up a position. Like having two 6-foot-11 centers, or seeing if the 6-foot-7 power forward could be a big wing, or 6-foot-7, wing could be a guard.
And then Bo would sit three guys 6-foot-10 or taller to have a 6-foot-7 fire hydrant with long arms check Greg Oden. Or a year later, they'd go three guards, none taller than 6-foot-2 and two 6-foot-7 guys to play down the stretch against really good teams.
It's nice to have big teams, but defensive mobility, especially at the 4 is real key.
(TKR is odd to me because he seems like a really nice offensive 5, but he's just not there at that spot defensively. I'm not sure he's aces there on defense at the 4, but with giants behind him, it kinda works. I still remember that JJJ/Ward/Bridges MSU team that was quite good, but didn't feel like it was better than the sum of its parts because those three never felt like a really smooth fit)
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Apparently Michigan is the real deal. Dusty May felt like a dream hire when it happened and that reality is visible.
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Something's missing...
(https://i0.wp.com/playcollegebasketball.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Black-Basketball-Match-Instagram-Post-YouTube-Thumbnail.png?fit=830%2C467&ssl=1)
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Finished dinner, watching MSU/Carolina, Go Spartans!
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So MSU is 8-0, just picked up their 3rd win over a ranked team, and I dont think anyone would rank them in the top 2 in conference. Big Ten should have three top 5 teams come Monday
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Badgers start their thanksgiving tourney by putting up 104 in a win over Providence.
Got TCU tomorrow today and a win would be nice.
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I can remember win Providence played defense
(https://i.imgur.com/HMo1nv0.jpeg)
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Purdue is a huge favorite and cruising but we have five other teams in action today and all five are in games with single-digit spreads that could realistically go either way:
- #13 Illinois +4.5 vs #5 UCONN at MSG 12:30 on FOX (already underway)
- Washington -2.5 vs Colorado in California, 430 on truT
- Wisconsin -6.5 vs TCU in San Diego, 530 on FOX
- Ohio State -5 at Pitt, 7 on ESPN2
- Minnesota +5.5 vs Santa Clara in California, 930 on truT
A lot of hoops today.
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Certainly is a good matchup for Braden Smith to practice his no-look passing...
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Ugh.
Illinois lost to UCONN, UW and UDub are getting drilled.
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Badgers start their thanksgiving tourney by putting up 104 in a win over Providence.
Got TCU tomorrow today and a win would be nice.
Well this plan isn't going well. They fell behind, cut it to 4 at halftime, got powerfully blitzed.
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Not a great day for the conference
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Welp
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Exciting ending in Pittsburgh
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Well that sucked.
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Exciting ending in Pittsburgh
Exciting for Pitt
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Exciting for Pitt
Well it looked good with 3.7 seconds to go . . .
Horrible day for the league:
- Illinois drilled by UCONN
- Washington drilled by Colorado
- Wisconsin lost by double digits to TCU
- Minnesota lost by double digits to Santa Clara
- Ohio State lost to Pitt.
At this point I think that the Buckeyes are, at best, a bubble team.
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Well it looked good with 3.7 seconds to go . . .
Horrible day for the league:
- Illinois drilled by UCONN
- Washington drilled by Colorado
- Wisconsin lost by double digits to TCU
- Minnesota lost by double digits to Santa Clara
- Ohio State lost to Pitt.
At this point I think that the Buckeyes are, at best, a bubble team.
11 isn't 40, but both are double digits.
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11 isn't 40, but both are double digits.
Just an ugly day for the league. The only win was Purdue beating the little sisters of the poor.
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Heres my hot take. MSU has already beaten Arkansas, Kentucky, and UNC, but the best team they will have played will be Iowa tomorrow
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(https://i.imgur.com/E5tsDRg.png)
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There are some really good games tonight.
Iowa vs. MSU (one unbeaten goes down).
Uconn @ Kansas
Florida @ Duke
North Carolina @ Kentucky
Oklahoma @ Wake Forrest could be sneaky good.
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Miss this being Big Ten-ACC Challenge week, granted it suffered from expansion as well
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Massey composite rankings...40 computers
- MICHIGAN
- Duke
- PURDUE
- Arizona
- Gonzaga
- Iowa State
- MICHIGAN STATE
- Houston
- Louisville
- Vanderbilt
- Alabama
- Connecticut
- BYU
- Tennessee
- INDIANA
- Auburn
- Florida
- Kansas
- St. John's
- ILLINOIS
- USC
- IOWA
- North Carolina
- Texas Tech
- Kentucky
26. Nebraska
40. Wisconsin
44. Ohio State
48. UCLA
59. Northwestern
70. Washington
84. Penn State
93. Oregon
95. Maryland
130. Rutgers
137. Minnesota
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Conference road games always tough, even in December
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Minnesota beat Indiana?
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(https://i.imgur.com/tiqSNob.jpeg)
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Count me as skeptical on USC. That Maui field was the worst ever, comfortably. I remember people worrying with the 2017 field, which only had 3 ranked teams, one was Wichita State, they failed to land an ACC or Big XII team, and Cal was the Pac 10 rep
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Still trying to decide whether I'm going to try to get tickets for Purdue @ USC. Not going to try to get UCLA because it's a Tuesday evening... No way in hell I'm trying to drive to see that! But the USC game is a Saturday afternoon...
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I had a random thought last night because I used to sometimes enjoy conference tournaments more than the NCAA tournament. Because I thought the quantity overwhelmed the slight quality difference. The conference expansions has sort of changed that.
It feels like because the top conferences have gobbled everyone up, there are fewer 2-3 bid leagues fighting for bids. You have the 1 bid leagues, and the power leagues where you are trying to figure out if to blah teams play, whether who wins that game matters, and that game usually happens on Thursday. By the weekend, the results don't matter. Nobody actually cares who wins these tournaments. There's a reason it's the Big Ten Tournament, and not the Big Ten Championship Tournament. It's a tournament. It's fun, but so is Maui.
What if we figured out a formula, based on the last 1-2 seasons, plus the preseason, to determine how many bids each conference "earned". Puts big weight on the regular season to stay above that cut line, and then the tournament is for whatever the last spot is.
So the one bid leagues, nothing changes. The larger conferences, it makes those tournaments fun again. When the Big Ten had 11 teams, it started Thursday, and everyone played by the next day. Now there are 3 days before the last teams join in. before, #10 Northwestern could beat another bad #7 team, then they were one upset away from being in the semifinal, and you were interested. Now, #17 Northwestern needs to win 3 games, just to get to Friday. Those teams aren't playing themselves in.
So, for instance, last year, the Big Ten got 8 teams in. I'm not saying the formula would say 8, but lets say it did.
Top 7 are in, and don't play in the BTT. That means the last auto-bid is Illinois, but it creates drama on that 7 line. The other 11 teams enter a tournament for that 8th slot. PSU isn't winning the as-is BTT. But the as-is BTT isn't a thing. It's literally just a tournament to determine the auto-bid. And whoever wins it was going to be in anyway, so who cares. Now, it's an 11 team tournament, with Oregon as the 1 seed, to determine the "auto-bid" as that 8th team. Can PSU win that tournament? Still, probably not, but possibly. But can Indiana? Ohio State? Rutgers? Possibly. That's a fun tournament
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I had a random thought last night because I used to sometimes enjoy conference tournaments more than the NCAA tournament. Because I thought the quantity overwhelmed the slight quality difference. The conference expansions has sort of changed that.
It feels like because the top conferences have gobbled everyone up, there are fewer 2-3 bid leagues fighting for bids. You have the 1 bid leagues, and the power leagues where you are trying to figure out if to blah teams play, whether who wins that game matters, and that game usually happens on Thursday. By the weekend, the results don't matter. Nobody actually cares who wins these tournaments. There's a reason it's the Big Ten Tournament, and not the Big Ten Championship Tournament. It's a tournament. It's fun, but so is Maui.
What if we figured out a formula, based on the last 1-2 seasons, plus the preseason, to determine how many bids each conference "earned". Puts big weight on the regular season to stay above that cut line, and then the tournament is for whatever the last spot is.
So the one bid leagues, nothing changes. The larger conferences, it makes those tournaments fun again. When the Big Ten had 11 teams, it started Thursday, and everyone played by the next day. Now there are 3 days before the last teams join in. before, #10 Northwestern could beat another bad #7 team, then they were one upset away from being in the semifinal, and you were interested. Now, #17 Northwestern needs to win 3 games, just to get to Friday. Those teams aren't playing themselves in.
So, for instance, last year, the Big Ten got 8 teams in. I'm not saying the formula would say 8, but lets say it did.
Top 7 are in, and don't play in the BTT. That means the last auto-bid is Illinois, but it creates drama on that 7 line. The other 11 teams enter a tournament for that 8th slot. PSU isn't winning the as-is BTT. But the as-is BTT isn't a thing. It's literally just a tournament to determine the auto-bid. And whoever wins it was going to be in anyway, so who cares. Now, it's an 11 team tournament, with Oregon as the 1 seed, to determine the "auto-bid" as that 8th team. Can PSU win that tournament? Still, probably not, but possibly. But can Indiana? Ohio State? Rutgers? Possibly. That's a fun tournament
And just to play it out, based on the actual results last year (adjusting for H/A)
THURSDAY
#11 Washington d. #6 Northwestern
#7 USC d. #10 Penn State
#8 Iowa d. #9 Nebraska
FRIDAY
#1 Oregon d. #8 Iowa
#2 Indiana d. #7 USC
#3 Ohio State d. #11 Washington
#4 Rutgers d. #5 Minnesota
SATURDAY
#1 Oregon d. #4 Rutgers
#2 Indiana d. #3 Ohio State
SUNDAY
#1 Oregon d. #2 Indiana
So, Oregon still gets the bid, but those games, with actual stakes, is so much better than the actual meaningless conference tournaments
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And just to play it out, based on the actual results last year (adjusting for H/A)
THURSDAY
#11 Washington d. #6 Northwestern
#7 USC d. #10 Penn State
#8 Iowa d. #9 Nebraska
FRIDAY
#1 Oregon d. #8 Iowa
#2 Indiana d. #7 USC
#3 Ohio State d. #11 Washington
#4 Rutgers d. #5 Minnesota
SATURDAY
#1 Oregon d. #4 Rutgers
#2 Indiana d. #3 Ohio State
SUNDAY
#1 Oregon d. #2 Indiana
So, Oregon still gets the bid, but those games, with actual stakes, is so much better than the actual meaningless conference tournaments
I really like this idea but I have a question. Before I get to my question, here is why I like this:
One thing about BB is that, as an Ohio State fan, I've seen my team pretty much everywhere on the map. @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) sometimes points out that I really struggle to understand the motives of say Purdue fans in Football because for my entire Ohio State football fandom, Ohio State has been at or near the top almost every year. Basketball is different. I've seen my team as the #1 seed in the BTT and as a NCAA bubble team needing a run and I've seen them as the last seed in the BTT (11 back when we had 11 teams). I don't have to try to figure out what other fanbases think because you name it, my team has been there.
When my team has been an easy NCAA lock, the BTT always feels like an exhibition. I want my team to avoid a bad loss so as not to diminish seeding in the NCAA and it is fun to win but I care a lot more about getting out of it with no injuries.
When my team is at the bottom (needing to win the BTT to get in to the NCAA) I kinda keep track of it but I know that realistically the worst team in the BTT isn't going to make it to the NCAA. Basically, I'll start getting excited if they get to the semi-finals (or at least the quarter-finals).
When my team is a bubble team, that is when the BTT is the most interesting to me. I'm talking about a situation where Ohio State needs a difficult but achievable two or three wins. Maybe Ohio State needs three wins and those break down as:
- A game that they should win, and
- A roughly toss-up game, an
- One upset.
That is exciting. It isn't like when you are the #11 seed in an 11-team tournament and you need five upsets in five days. We all know that the chances of that are slim an none. When you need the three games I laid out above, you probably have something like a 25% chance of getting it. That is enough to be excited about.
Looking at the above, what they need:
- #11 Washington needs four upsets in four days. Probably not happening but at least they don't have to play Purdue. It isn't altogether impossible.
- #7-10 (USC, IA, UNL, PSU) need to win a toss-up then three upsets. Unlikely, not impossible.
- #4-5 (MN, RU) need to win a toss-up then two minor upsets.
- #1-3 (Ore, IU, tOSU) need to win a game they should then two toss-ups. Exciting, possible.
Now my question:
What would you do about bid thieves?
One bid leagues are easy because they get one bid no matter what but what about a league with one team good enough to get in as an at-large and then a bunch of bad teams. What if the one good team gets upset?
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Ohio State has a BB game tomorrow that almost zero Ohio State fans are even going to realize is happening. The thing is, it is a REALLY important game.
Ohio State is looking like a bubble team and I *THINK* they are maybe slightly better than Northwestern but the game is in Evanston so it feels like at best a toss-up. If the Buckeyes are going to make the Tournament, it is games like this one that they need to find a way to win.
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I like the idea. The issue is that it's completely unworkable. You can't hamstring the selection committee into "you HAVE to select this many teams from the B1G" preseason because you don't know what the strength of the league will be year-to-year. And you can't have them say prior to the conference tournament that they're allotting X bids to the league b/c of bid thieves.
They will NOT accept anything that takes away their Christmas: Selection Sunday.
So... Cool idea. I'd find it a lot of fun if it happened. It just... won't.
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Still trying to decide whether I'm going to try to get tickets for Purdue @ USC. Not going to try to get UCLA because it's a Tuesday evening... No way in hell I'm trying to drive to see that! But the USC game is a Saturday afternoon...
Take the motorcycle and engage in a little lane-splitting.
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Take the motorcycle and engage in a little lane-splitting.
The bike I sold in 2004?
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oh, I agree it will never happen. But from a fan standpoint it would make the end of the regular season fun, because you're watching those cut lines, and then make every single conference tournament do or die. And not like now where by Friday the big conference tournaments dont matter
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The bike I sold in 2004?
What would you do that for, it's the ultimate cheat code for LA traffic?
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and just sips gasoline
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What would you do that for, it's the ultimate cheat code for LA traffic?
Well, after the 75 mph highside and not having the money to fix it at that young age, I had to sell... Then had kids and never got another one.
Not sure I'd want one now, with all the cell-phone distracted drivers out there...
I want another one, of course, but the first thing I'd do is take off everything that makes it street legal and make it a track day bike.
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Well, after the 75 mph highside and not having the money to fix it at that young age, I had to sell... Then had kids and never got another one.
Not sure I'd want one now, with all the cell-phone distracted drivers out there...
I want another one, of course, but the first thing I'd do is take off everything that makes it street legal and make it a track day bike.
If it's bumper to bumper, then your only risk is someone opening their door, no?
(https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th/id/OIP.hfivIbhB6e476c92chTaFwHaE8?cb=ucfimg2&ucfimg=1&rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain&o=7&rm=3)
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OSU has their hands full with Northwestern.
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Not a great early afternoon
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Surprised by the Purdue beatdown. Didn't see that coming.
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Surprised by the Purdue beatdown. Didn't see that coming.
I've been avoiding this thread as I was watching time-delayed, but Purdue's down 25 with <4m to go on my TV, so I figured all the activity in this thread meant they lost...
Honestly, I hate like hell to see my team lose. But I think ultimately this might be good for them. I don't think this beatdown was due to a lack of talent or suggests this team isn't as good as billed. I feel (and some things I've seen over the last several games) that they've had so many things going their way that they just assume that things will always go their way.
Sometimes getting punched in the mouth is the wake-up call you need. Reminds you that you have to bring it 100%, every game, every minute. Because when you're a team this good, your opponent ALWAYS will. All it takes to get an L is to let up... Never let up.
Pretty sure Painter is going to keep this game on tap as a teachable moment all season long.
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Seeing Wisconsin pound Market soothes always my soul.
I wonder how much longer they will keep Shaka Smart. I hear the natives are getting a little down on him.
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Seeing Wisconsin pound Market soothes always my soul.
I wonder how much longer they will keep Shaka Smart. I hear the natives are getting a little down on him.
This Marquette team looks bad. Just not good.
I still don’t feel great about this badgers team, but it is funny that has basically settled into your standard man rotation that feels pretty decent about the starters and a couple of reserve wings.
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Looks like not a good day for Ohio State football but this win by the basketball team in Evanston was huge.
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Duke wins ACC in football, IU wins BIG in football (before they win a single B1G hoops tournament btw)...surely this is the year Nebraska wins a tournament game, no?
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no
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Duke wins ACC in football, IU wins BIG in football (before they win a single B1G hoops tournament btw)...surely this is the year Nebraska wins a tournament game, no?
(https://i.imgur.com/YmXehyo.png)
Mitch stole this from ya
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So what is being a basketball school like? What do I need to do differently?
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Step 1 is a Billy Donovan tattoo.
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Step 1 is a Billy Donovan tattoo.
Bet!
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I liked Billy as a player and a coach
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(https://i.imgur.com/s60xiqK.jpeg)
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(https://i.imgur.com/LOs2Vv1.jpeg)
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Massey composite rankings...40 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- MICHIGAN (1)
- Duke (2)
- Arizona (4)
- Iowa State (6)
- Gonzaga (5)
- PURDUE (3)
- Vanderbilt (10)
- Connecticut (12)
- MICHIGAN STATE (7)
- BYU (13)
- Alabama (11)
- Houston (8)
- Louisville (9)
- ILLINOIS (20)
- North Carolina (23)
- Kansas (18)
- Florida (17)
- St. John's (19)
- Texas Tech (24)
- Arkansas (-)
- Saint Mary's (-)
- NEBRASKA (-)
- Auburn (16)
- Georgia (-)
- Tennessee (14)
27. Iowa (22)
29. USC (21)
32. Wisconsin (40)
33. Indiana (15)
34. UCLA (48)
36. Ohio State (44)
63. Washington (70)
75. Northwestern (59)
83. Penn State (84)
102. Maryland (95)
104. Oregon (93)
126. Minnesota (137)
143. Rutgers (130)
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Florida should be consistently great at every sport. Its probably the easiest gig outside of Texas. But somehow they were whatever for decades, until hiring the best coaches of their generation (Spurrier/Donovan), and then otherwise perpetually underachieved unless they looked the other way to hire a coach who looked the other way (Urban/Golden)
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(https://i.imgur.com/tfR1T9V.jpeg)
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feels like there have been more blowouts than normal in games between power five schools this year
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Wisconsin is not good. No identity on defense at all.
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Didn't realize how backloaded Michigan's Big Ten schedule is.
They are 2 games into a 12 game stretch where they play no ranked teams, 9 of those 12 games are at home.
Then 7 of their final 11 games are against ranked teams, 6 on the road.
They will be pretty heavy favorites to be 18-0 when they host #23 Nebraska on January 27, and then play at #9 MSU 3 days later.
They have #25 UCLA, at #6 Purdue, #3 Duke, and at #13 Illinois in a 2 week span in late February.
MSU plays 1 more ranked Big Ten opponents than UM, but they at no point face 2 in a row
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Marquette @ Purdue starts in under an hour.
Let me tell you just how insanely happy I am that they're putting a game like this on Peacock. You know, after they told us that the whole point of the BTN was so that we'd never miss one of our team's games. I understand that the BTN doesn't show everything... But it should be networks, ESPN, and then BTN.
fPeacock. fNBC.
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(https://i.imgur.com/6Fc8xwU.png)
#14 vs #22 on peacock as well
ranked Big Ten matchups must not be worth much $$$
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BTN does have a college basketball quintupleheader straight from 12 to 10
But it does seem like Peacock has jumped it in terms of quality of games.
What irritates me is how often live sports are on BTN+, and you go to actual BTN and its a "classic" from 2 months ago.
The amount of live baseball and hockey is terrible. They do better with volleyball and wrestling. Granted I hate wrestling
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knowing Huskers fans as I do............. ratings will be pretty good for this afternoon's game
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Nebrasketball is ranked? :smiley_confused1:
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an undefeated - crazy daze!
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This team is not nearly good enough to turn the ball over like that.
Conference road game caveat and all, that is about the worst road environment in the conference. Thats a loss against any other Big Ten team on the road, and probably 10 teams at home
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Holy Shit!!!
Didn't think this could happen
big win on the road. This team might be pretty good.
(https://i.imgur.com/CLcwk0r.jpeg)
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Buckeyes pulled one out by the skin of their teeth
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Buckeyes pulled one out by the skin of their teeth
The Buckeyes are a Bruce Thornton away from being Rutgers
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The Buckeyes are a Bruce Thornton away from being Rutgers
I really wish that kid had been around before NIL.
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The Buckeyes are a Bruce Thornton away from being Rutgers
Honestly, are they even Rutgers without him? This team is . . . not good.
The win in Evanston gives me *SOME* hope for a Tournament bid but the road loss to Pitt shows that most road games are at best a toss-up and the home loss to an Illinois team that Nebraska beat in Champaign shows that the Buckeyes are a HUGE step below the top of the league.
They are currently 8-2/1-1 with 18 league games and 3 OOC games remaining. If you figure 12 losses (including BTT) is probably in, then they have nine to give but I'm having trouble seeing that happen.
First the three OOC games:
- Grambling at home they should obviously win (if not the rest of this is moot)
- #14 UNC in ATL is a likely loss.
- #24 UVA in Music City is a likely loss.
That would get them to 9-4/1-1 with 18 league games left and only seven losses to give.
League home games:
- #23 UNL is a likely loss
- #25 UCLA is a likely loss
- Minnesota should be a win
- Penn State should be a win
- #2 Michigan is a likely loss
- USC is close to a toss-up
- UW is close to a toss-up
- #6 PU is a likely loss
- IU should be a win
I get 5-4 assuming they split the USC/UW games and they are obviously going to lose more than three league road games.
League road games:
- Rutgers they should win
- Oregon they should win
- UDub is a toss-up
- #2 Michigan is a near-certain loss
- Wisconsin is a likely loss
- Maryland they should win
- #9 MSU is a near-certain loss
- Iowa is a likely loss
- Penn State they should win
I get call it 4-5.
So that adds up to 18-13/10-10 heading into the BTT. Last year they were 17-14, lost their BTT opener, and missed the NCAA. I'm looking at the schedule and getting one game better this year. They'd probably need at least one win in the BTT, maybe more.
The bubble really is a knife edge. If you take one or two of the games that I have as a "should be a win" and make them losses, they'll go to the BTT needing to win it. Conversely, if you take one or two of the games that I have as a "likely loss" and make them wins, they'll head to the BTT securely in the NCAA and only playing for seeding.
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What happens if they win all the likely losses, and lose all the likely wins?
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What happens if they win all the likely losses, and lose all the likely wins?
IMHO, it is mostly irrelevant. I think they can trade bad losses for good wins all day long.
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What happens if they win all the likely losses, and lose all the likely wins?
This is obviously a ridiculous question because Ohio State isn't realistically going to win all the tough games and lose all the easy ones but it does relate to a point that I do think is important. Ohio State is 8-2/1-1 with 21 games remaining so here are those games roughly sorted (using @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's composite rankings) into what I *THINK* is easiest/most likely win (#1) to toughest/most likely loss (#21):
- vs nr Grambling on 12/23
- vs #126 Minnesota on 1/20
- at #143 Rutgers on 1/2
- vs #83 Penn State on 1/26
- at #102 Maryland on 2/5
- at #104 Oregon on 1/8
- at #83 Penn State on 3/4
- at #63 Washington on 1/11
- vs #34 UCLA on 1/17
- vs #33 Indiana on 3/7
- vs #32 Wisconsin on 2/17
- vs #29 USC on 2/11
- vs #? UVA in Nashville on 2/14
- at #32 Wisconsin on 1/31
- at #27 Iowa on 2/25
- vs #22 Nebraska on 1/5
- vs #15 UNC in ATL on 12/20
- vs #6 Purdue on 3/1
- vs #1 Michigan on 2/8
- at #9 MSU on 2/22
- at #1 Michigan on 1/23
IMHO, 19-12 is basically knife edge. Probably in but might fall out with a bad BTT loss or a strong bubble. 20-11 is almost certainly in and 18-13 would require an unlikely run in the BTT. So to get to 19-11 by winning the easiest games they would have to win #1-11 which also presumes that they would lose #12-21.
Per @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) 's ridiculous example, suppose that Ohio State lost #1-10 and somehow won #11-21. We can't really say WHAT the committee would do with that because I don't think there has ever been a resume that goofy. Those bottom 11 would be some INCREDIBLY good wins, but losing at home to Grambling, Minnesota, and Penn State would also be REALLY bad and I would guess that the committee would just basically offset the bad losses against the good wins and put the Buckeyes in.
When I said that I thought the Buckeyes could probably trade bad wins for good losses all day long I was thinking more of the usual case. Ie, if the Buckeyes went 11-10 over these 21 games by winning #1-9 but then lost at home to Indiana and Wisconsin but then won at home over USC and in Nashville over UVA and lost #14-21 that is 11-10, they would finish 19-12 and I think they'd be right on the edge and in no different of a situation than they would be if they had won the home games against IU and UW but lost to USC and UVA. Ie, I think that trading a minor upset win for a minor upset loss is a non-issue. I also think that trading a MAJOR upset loss for a MAJOR upset win (ie if the Buckeyes lost at home to Grambling but won in Ann Arbor or East Lansing) is also basically a non-issue. They just offset.
However, I do NOT think that all upsets are equal. I think that trading MAJOR upset wins for minor upset losses is good and that trading MAJOR upset losses for minor upset wins is bad. Ie:
- If the Buckeyes lost at home to Grambling, won vs USC, and otherwise won the easiest and lost to toughest to get to 19-12 that would be worse than just winning the easiest 11 because the loss to Grambling would be BAD.
- If the Buckeyes won at Michigan, lost at home to USC and otherwise won the easiest and lost the toughest to get to 19-12 that would be better than just winning the easiest 11 because the win at Michigan would be a REALLY good win.
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- vs nr Grambling on 12/23
- vs #126 Minnesota on 1/20
- at #143 Rutgers on 1/2
- vs #83 Penn State on 1/26
- at #102 Maryland on 2/5
- at #104 Oregon on 1/8
- at #83 Penn State on 3/4
- at #63 Washington on 1/11
- vs #34 UCLA on 1/17
- vs #33 Indiana on 3/7
- vs #32 Wisconsin on 2/17
- vs #29 USC on 2/11
- vs #? UVA in Nashville on 2/14
- at #32 Wisconsin on 1/31
- at #27 Iowa on 2/25
- vs #22 Nebraska on 1/5
- vs #15 UNC in ATL on 12/20
- vs #6 Purdue on 3/1
- vs #1 Michigan on 2/8
- at #9 MSU on 2/22
- at #1 Michigan on 1/23
From my view, the Buckeyes' season hinges on the seven games from #7-13:
- #1-6 they definitely should win. They are PSU at home and a bunch of teams with triple-digit rankings.
- #14-21 would take very unlikely upsets to win. Wisconsin and Iowa do NOT appear to be all that good but they are still probably better than Ohio State and Carver-Hawkeye and the Kohl Center are tough especially when the home team is better than you. The rest of the teams are just a lot better than Ohio State, particularly the four games against #1 Michigan, #6 Purdue, and #9 MSU.
That leaves the seven games from #7-13. There are road games against PSU and UDub. Ohio State is pretty clearly better than those teams but road games are tough. Then there are home games against relative equals (UCLA, IU, UW, USC) and a neutral site game against UVA. As I see it, the Buckeyes need to go 5-2 in this group to end up 19-12 overall.
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Michigan on an interesting stretch. Beating USC and they could be 17-0 heading into Indiana. The fact that Maryland took 27 three point shots, shot 52% from 3 and Michigan still won by 18 is crazy. They are LOADED as a team.
Also, David Coit from Maryland is unreal when he's feeling it.
(https://i.imgur.com/IzWGwL4.png)
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Michigan on an interesting stretch. Beating USC and they could be 17-0 heading into Indiana. The fact that Maryland took 27 three point shots, shot 52% from 3 and Michigan still won by 18 is crazy. They are LOADED as a team.
Also, David Coit from Maryland is unreal when he's feeling it.
(https://i.imgur.com/IzWGwL4.png)
IMHO, Indiana isn't THAT good. Michigan *SHOULD* be 20-0 when they go to East Lansing in late January and if they manage to win in the Breslin Center then they *SHOULD* be 24-0 when they head to Mackey in mid-February.
That said, "Should" and "Will" are obviously two very different things. Conference road games can be tough even against teams that you *SHOULD* beat. Travelling to the West Coast to play UDub in Seattle could get hairy and you just never know when some middling team is going to have a 'game of their lives' on a random day.
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IMHO, Indiana isn't THAT good. Michigan *SHOULD* be 20-0 when they go to East Lansing in late January and if they manage to win in the Breslin Center then they *SHOULD* be 24-0 when they head to Mackey in mid-February.
That said, "Should" and "Will" are obviously two very different things. Conference road games can be tough even against teams that you *SHOULD* beat. Travelling to the West Coast to play UDub in Seattle could get hairy and you just never know when some middling team is going to have a 'game of their lives' on a random day.
Agree with all of that..I think all opposition preps different when a team has a #1 or #2 label and ensure they're giving their best because that upset can be more meaningful. Especially from teams that think they may be on the border of NCAA selection committee.
I also think the travel to the west coast or travel from west back out east is downplayed when in reality can be draining.
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(https://i.imgur.com/7RhpEQk.jpeg)
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I also think the travel to the west coast or travel from west back out east is downplayed when in reality can be draining.
The other thing that makes the West Coast road trips hokey is that the way they are doing it you usually have two games out there so the second one is a different set of issues than the first. The second one you don't have a long flight and you might actually have LESS travel than the home team but . . . you will have been living out of a suitcase on the road for a few days which has issues as well. It may also impact the first game back. Here is Michigan's West Coast road trip and the games before and after:
- vs Wisconsin at home on Saturday 1/10
- at Washington on Wednesday, 1/14
- at Oregon on Saturday, 1/17
- vs Indiana on Tuesday, 1/20
Lots of potential issues here:
Washington's game prior to Michigan is a home game against Ohio State on 1/11. That should be advantage UDub even though they play a day later because UDub has ZERO travel.
Oregon's game prior to Michigan is a road game at Nebraska on 1/13. Thus Oregon actually has to travel a LOT further for their HOME game against Michigan than the Wolverines who are only coming from Seattle.
Indiana's game prior to Michigan is a home game against Iowa on 1/17. Thus Michigan actually has to travel a LOT further for their HOME game against Indiana than the Hoosiers who are only coming from Bloomington.
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Didn't realize how backloaded Michigan's Big Ten schedule is.
They are 2 games into a 12 game stretch where they play no ranked teams, 9 of those 12 games are at home.
Then 7 of their final 11 games are against ranked teams, 6 on the road.
They will be pretty heavy favorites to be 18-0 when they host #23 Nebraska on January 27, and then play at #9 MSU 3 days later.
They have #25 UCLA, at #6 Purdue, #3 Duke, and at #13 Illinois in a 2 week span in late February.
MSU plays 1 more ranked Big Ten opponents than UM, but they at no point face 2 in a row
Mentioned that a week ago
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Massey composite rankings...42 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- MICHIGAN (1)
- Duke (2)
- Arizona (3)
- Gonzaga (5)
- Iowa State (4)
- Connecticut (8)
- PURDUE (6)
- BYU (10)
- MICHIGAN STATE (9)
- Vanderbilt (7)
- Houston (12)
- Louisville (13)
- NEBRASKA (22)
- Alabama (11)
- ILLINOIS (14)
- Kansas (16)
- North Carolina (15)
- Arkansas (20)
- St. John's (18)
- Georgia (24)
- Florida (17)
- Texas Tech (19)
- IOWA (-)
- Auburn (23)
- Tennessee (25)
28. USC (29)
31. Indiana (33)
36. UCLA (34)
42. Ohio State (36)
46. Wisconsin (32)
60. Washington (63)
73. Northwestern (75)
88. Oregon (104)
98. Penn State (83)
104. Maryland (102)
116. Minnesota (126)
152. Rutgers (143)
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that's more like it
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Sam Hoiberg leads college basketball in assist to turnover ratio. 44-8. Incredible
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Sam Hoiberg leads college basketball in assist to turnover ratio. 44-8. Incredible
That's a crazy number!
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Massey composite rankings...42 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- MICHIGAN (1)
- Duke (2)
- Arizona (3)
- Gonzaga (5)
- Iowa State (4)
- Connecticut (8)
- PURDUE (6)
- BYU (10)
- MICHIGAN STATE (9)
- Vanderbilt (7)
- Houston (12)
- Louisville (13)
- NEBRASKA (22)
- Alabama (11)
- ILLINOIS (14)
- Kansas (16)
- North Carolina (15)
- Arkansas (20)
- St. John's (18)
- Georgia (24)
- Florida (17)
- Texas Tech (19)
- IOWA (-)
- Auburn (23)
- Tennessee (25)
28. USC (29)
31. Indiana (33)
36. UCLA (34)
42. Ohio State (36)
46. Wisconsin (32)
60. Washington (63)
73. Northwestern (75)
88. Oregon (104)
98. Penn State (83)
104. Maryland (102)
116. Minnesota (126)
152. Rutgers (143)
How did Maryland get so bad at basketball?
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How did Maryland get so bad at basketball?
Eh.. They may not be bad, but have had a buzzsaw of a schedule. When your last 5 games are Gonzaga, Alabama, Iowa and Michigan in the mix and your next game is Virginia. It's going to be a pretty rough period for a lot of teams.
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Eh.. They may not be bad, but have had a buzzsaw of a schedule. When your last 5 games are Gonzaga, Alabama, Iowa and Michigan in the mix and your next game is Virginia. It's going to be a pretty rough period for a lot of teams.
Yes, but they lost by 39 to Gonzaga, 33 to Alabama, 19 to Iowa, and 18 to Michigan.
They also only beat UMBC by 1, lost to Georgetown, and needed OT to beat Mount St. Mary's
KenPom has them #100. Right between Illinois State and High Point.
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Really needing UW to win on Friday. If they want to look not discombobulated, that’d be great, but a win there makes the tournament path clearer.
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Yes, but they lost by 39 to Gonzaga, 33 to Alabama, 19 to Iowa, and 18 to Michigan.
They also only beat UMBC by 1, lost to Georgetown, and needed OT to beat Mount St. Mary's
KenPom has them #100. Right between Illinois State and High Point.
Gonzaga lost to Michigan by 40. Does that mean they suck? Auburn lost to Michigan by 40 and Arizona by 29.
I get the rest of the stats you are using and they're far more than one offs like I'm pointing out. I'm just saying it's probably the worst point in the season from a timing perspective to analyze Maryland. Not that their schedule is void of good opposition in the future, but after watching them I don't think they're bad.
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I actually do think Auburn isn't good. Don't think they suck, but don't think they are any good either
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Gonzaga lost to Michigan by 40. Does that mean they suck? Auburn lost to Michigan by 40 and Arizona by 29.
I get the rest of the stats you are using and they're far more than one offs like I'm pointing out. I'm just saying it's probably the worst point in the season from a timing perspective to analyze Maryland. Not that their schedule is void of good opposition in the future, but after watching them I don't think they're bad.
Eh. One bad game doesn't mean a team sucks. Purdue lost to Iowa State by 23. Does that mean Purdue suddenly sucks?
No. Sometimes a game just gets out of hand. Purdue led that game by 5 at one point a little past the 10 minute mark, and was only down 4 at the half. But then ISU went on a heater to start the second half and in 3 1/2 minutes of game time, it ballooned to 15 points.
That's one data point. OTOH, Purdue has handled everyone else on their schedule. All but one was a double digit margin, including a lopsided (30 point) win over ranked Texas Tech on a neutral court. The closest win was over Alabama, by 7, in Tuscaloosa.
But Maryland doesn't have that sort of a resume. As @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) points out, they have multiple other lopsided losses, and narrow wins over teams they should have handled better. Their weakness looks like more than just a tough schedule.
They don't have the body of work to excuse a lopsided loss, especially because they have so many of them...
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Maybe just need to get through the holidays and get back in rhythm, but third straight blah game from MSU. No coincidence that it is coincided with Fears having three straight bad games.
Continuing to shoehorn Wojcik in as the backup PG is mking things worse
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I actually do think Auburn isn't good. Don't think they suck, but don't think they are any good either
They might suck
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PSU, woof
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Massey composite rankings...41 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- MICHIGAN (1)
- Arizona (3)
- Iowa State (5)
- Duke (2)
- Gonzaga (4)
- PURDUE (7)
- Connecticut (6)
- Vanderbilt (10)
- BYU (8)
- Houston (11)
- MICHIGAN STATE (9)
- NEBRASKA (13)
- Alabama (14)
- Louisville (12)
- ILLINOIS (15)
- Kansas (16)
- North Carolina (17)
- Texas Tech (22)
- Tennessee (25)
- IOWA (23)
- Georgia (20)
- Arkansas (18)
- Florida (21)
- St. John's (19)
- Kentucky (-)
29. USC (28)
36. UCLA (36)
39. Indiana (31)
43. Ohio State (42)
53. Wisconsin (46)
66. Washington (60)
77. Oregon (88)
78. Northwestern (73)
104. Minnesota (116)
106. Maryland (104)
122. Penn State (98)
149. Rutgers (152)
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(https://i.imgur.com/Pbzu7og.jpeg)
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Life on the bubble:
Lunardi currently has Ohio State among the "last four in" but that is so close to moving either way. Ohio State has had four games decided by a single point:
- 64-63 over Notre Dame at home.
- 67-66 loss at Pittsburgh
- 89-88 over WVU in Cleveland
- 71-70 loss to UNC in Atlanta
If you take two baskets away from Ohio State, one each in the ND and WVU games, the Buckeyes would be 6-5 and not even in the bubble discussion. If you give Ohio State two extra baskets, one each in the Pitt and UNC games, the Buckeyes are 10-1 and ranked.
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a bit early for the bubble watch in my opinion
might want to play a handful of conference games first
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(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/4c061a65e787ec172f86bc5b82ddb4dea4141a2e/c=0-48-6711-3840&r=x1683&c=3200x1680/local/-/media/2018/03/14/USATODAY/USATODAY/636566245958898276-USATSI-9945908.jpg)
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Didn't realize how backloaded Michigan's Big Ten schedule is.
They are 2 games into a 12 game stretch where they play no ranked teams, 9 of those 12 games are at home.
Then 7 of their final 11 games are against ranked teams, 6 on the road.
They will be pretty heavy favorites to be 18-0 when they host #23 Nebraska on January 27, and then play at #9 MSU 3 days later.
They have #25 UCLA, at #6 Purdue, #3 Duke, and at #13 Illinois in a 2 week span in late February.
MSU plays 1 more ranked Big Ten opponents than UM, but they at no point face 2 in a row
undefeated Huskers hosting Sparty Friday night in the Vault
(https://i.imgur.com/6hMRJ3L.jpeg)
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undefeated Huskers hosting Sparty Friday night in the Vault
The B1G has not one but two ranked-vs-ranked games on Friday:
#24 USC visits the Crisler Center to take on #2 Michigan at 7pm on Peacock.
#9 MSU visits Pinnacle Bank Arena to take on #13 Nebraska at 9pm on Peacock.
How do we have two ranked-vs-ranked games and neither of them are reasonably viewable?
What I also don't understand is that we also have two other games which each overlap each other and BOTH of the aforementioned ranked-vs-ranked games and they are also on Peacock.
My Buckeyes are in Jersey to take on Rutgers. The first half should be simultaneous with the second half of USC@M and the second half should be simultaneous with MSU@UNL.
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How do we have two ranked-vs-ranked games and neither of them are reasonably viewable?
piss poor management - could be making some decent $$$ - but no
on the bright side,............ I'm at my brother's place and he has pee-cock
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(https://i.imgur.com/b1zaemO.png)
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How do we have two ranked-vs-ranked games and neither of them are reasonably viewable?
Because Peacock is contracted to get a couple of games per week and they just lucked out that USC and Nebraska are much better than expected this year.
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(https://i.imgur.com/b1zaemO.png)
Normally you don't hate getting a road game this week, with no students, but Nebraska fans will plenty show up. Feels like we are walking into a hornets nest
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Massey composite rankings...47 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- MICHIGAN (1)
- Arizona (2)
- Gonzaga (5)
- Iowa State (3)
- Duke (4)
- PURDUE (6)
- Connecticut (7)
- Vanderbilt (8)
- BYU (9)
- MICHIGAN STATE (11)
- Houston (10)
- ILLINOIS (15)
- Alabama (13)
- NEBRASKA (12)
- North Carolina (17)
- Kansas (16)
- Louisville (14)
- Texas Tech (18)
- Tennessee (19)
- IOWA (20)
- Georgia (21)
- Arkansas (22)
- Florida (23)
- St. John's (24)
- Virginia (-)
30. USC (29)
33. UCLA (36)
39. Indiana (39)
42. Ohio State (43)
52. Wisconsin (53)
56. Washington (66)
76. Oregon (77)
78. Northwestern (78)
101. Maryland (106)
104. Minnesota (104)
127. Penn State (122)
151. Rutgers (149)
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(https://i.imgur.com/opFKf45.jpeg)
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[img width=273.619 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/opFKf45.jpeg[/img]
So . . .
Any chance Nebraska has a letdown their next game out? Who do they play next anyway? 😉
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let me look..................
Monday evening in Columbus, OH
I'll probably be watching from a Hooters or BWW in Springfield, MO
yes, they could start thinking they're pretty good, but they also know going on the road is tough.
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let me look..................
Monday evening in Columbus, OH
You don't say?
going on the road is tough.
It is but oddly the Buckeyes are 2-0 on the road, 0-1 at home, and likely to be 0-2 at home after Monday night.
It isn't because road games aren't tough, it is a quirk of Ohio State's schedule. Through mid-January the Buckeyes will continue playing good teams at home and not-so-good teams on the road. Using the rankings provided above by @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) here is Ohio State's league schedule through January 17:
- W at NU, #78
- L vs IL, #12
- W at RU, #151
- Vs UNL, #14
- At Ore, #76
- At UDub, #56
- Vs UCLA, #33
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You don't say?
I'll have the 26 husker football schedule memorized by the end of the month
not accustomed to paying attention to hoops
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Purdue with a tough road matchup today at Wisconsin.
I know it seems Wisconsin isn't at their usual level, and Purdue has evolved into a far more offensive minded team over the years, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see a typical rock fight between these teams at the Kohl.
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I think last night showed why Wojcik keeps getting minutes at the backup 1.
Devine is better, but there are no good options behind him right bow at the 2. So theyll keep giving him his minutes at the 2. Seems like they were caught off guard, and rightfully so, by Richardson being one and done
With no Devine last night, out with an injury, it became ABUNDANTLY clear how front court heavy this team is.
Cooper needs to get his form back, or this team is #5 in the Big Ten at best. It cant be all Fears and Kohler
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Purdue with a tough road matchup today at Wisconsin.
I know it seems Wisconsin isn't at their usual level, and Purdue has evolved into a far more offensive minded team over the years, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see a typical rock fight between these teams at the Kohl.
Having this game during the 49ers loss is really messing with my mood.
I'm not really mad at or surprised by the final outcome, but it wasn't pleasant to go through.
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I think last night showed why Wojcik keeps getting minutes at the backup 1.
Devine is better, but there are no good options behind him right bow at the 2. So theyll keep giving him his minutes at the 2. Seems like they were caught off guard, and rightfully so, by Richardson being one and done
With no Devine last night, out with an injury, it became ABUNDANTLY clear how front court heavy this team is.
Cooper needs to get his form back, or this team is #5 in the Big Ten at best. It cant be all Fears and Kohler
https://twitter.com/i/status/2007502584219914576
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I watched the game - amazed at the reluctance to do ANYTHING in the paint by either team
that's a great way to score less than 60
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Braden Smith passed Cassius Winston last night to become the B1G all-time career assist leader.
Smith has a realistic shot at the NCAA record given his game averages, from what I understand.
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Looked it up. At his current season average of 9.6 apg, Smith would need just over 19 games to take the record.
There are 17 remaining regular season games, plus whatever the Boilers do in the conference and NCAA tournaments.
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I was curious if he was going to also set an NCAA record for minutes played. He has played 124 games, started all of them, and has averaged over 30 mpg every season.
Somehow, likely not even close. He's played a lot of minutes. He's currently at 4,166 minutes. For comparison, Cassius finished his career at 4,003 (no BTT or NCAA tourney his senior year due to COVID).
But the NCAA record is 5,747 minutes. Let's say Purdue plays 3 BTT games and 4 NCAA games. That's 24 more games. He's averaging 32.1 mpg this year, but that will probably go up in conference play, so let's say 34. That still puts him at 4,982 minutes. Nearly 800 minutes short.
Looked up how that happened, and it's Jacob Gilyard from Richmond, who got the free COVID year. So he played 5 seasons, averaging 36.5+ mpg in all 5. It would have been way higher if Richmond had actually been good. In those 5 seasons he only played in 13 postseason games (including A10 tournament games). He is the NCAA record holder in steals by an absurd margin as well.
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Here is hoping that Nebraska has been busy celebrating their win over MSU for the last few days and not preparing for tonight's game!
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just checked into the hotel in Springfield, MO
headed to Hooters to watch the game
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(https://i.imgur.com/i3x4XYo.jpeg)
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This Cincinnati-West Virginia game reminds me of the time that Bob Huggins went on the air and forgot what century he was in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIsehteMQpU
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Didn't expect the worst game of the night to be UCLA-Wisconsin
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Didn't expect the worst game of the night to be UCLA-Wisconsin
Home Court was strong tonight!
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UCLA could stay overnight and still not make a 3
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There are some potential interesting games tonight in the other conferences.
Iowa St. @ Baylor.
Alabama @ Vandy
SMU @ Clemson
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Didn't expect the worst game of the night to be UCLA-Wisconsin
I was thankful.
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pretty sure Mizzou is playing
I just pulled into Columbia
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pretty sure Mizzou is playing
I just pulled into Columbia
Kentucky
Big time border war, right there.
(https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th/id/OIP.z0Mi2CZbJmbZyLqyNtNH6wHaDm?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain&o=7&rm=3)
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was a good and entertaining game
wasn't on behind the bat at Hooters when I sat down, Had to tell the bartender to change the channel
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Guessing UK donors didnt buy a $25 million roster to go to the NIT
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Texas Tech and Houston probably paid more
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In the WAC's final year, the teams are all playing each other thrice during the regular season.
Très bizarre.
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WACky
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Guessing Dana Altman will not be back next year
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I didn't watch because it is on BTN but what happened for tOSU to run away?
From ESPN play-by-play:
- Oregon hit a 3 to make it a 3 point game at 46-43 with 14:05 to go.
- The next time Oregon scored a point it was a 3 to make it a 21 point game at 67-46 with 6:43 to go.
So Ohio State had a 21-0 run over 7:22? Wow. I wouldn't have guessed that Ohio State's defense could hold air scoreless for 7 minutes.
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(https://i.imgur.com/OJrvL2O.png)
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a bit early for the bubble watch in my opinion
might want to play a handful of conference games first
I know this was from a couple weeks ago but I wanted to address it because I know you aren't accustomed to following basketball so I'll explain my view:
Yes it IS early for bubble watch. There is a lot of basketball to be played so obviously a team on the bubble like Ohio State could either get hot and move off the bubble in a good way or get cold and move off the bubble in a bad way. That said, my interest isn't so much in the current bubble but in having an idea, in my head, of what impact an unexpected result has.
Example #1, your team, Nebraska. Lunardi currently has them as a #3 seed. He has them in the South Region (Houston) and playing their first weekend games in OKC against #14 Temple then the UF/MiamiOH winner. Only the #3 part of that would be relevant to me if I were a Nebraska fan. What that means is that a few positive upsets would move Nebraska up to a #2 or potentially a #1 while a few negative upsets would knock them down to a #4 or #5. The exact seed, region, first weekend location, and opponents will change a lot but the general idea that Nebraska is currently looking like a #3 seed tells me what I need to know.
Example #2, my team, Ohio State. Lunardi currently has them as THE LAST bye, getting a #10 seed in the West (San Jose) and playing their first weekend games in Portland against #7 Utah State then the Gonzaga/MontanaSt winner. Again, the exact seed, region, first weekend location, and opponents will change a lot but the general idea that Ohio State is VERY close to the cut-line tells me what I need to know. It tells me that a few positive upsets give some breathing room and potentially move Ohio State up but I'm not sure that I even want that because 8/9 has a VERY limited chance to make the S16. However, I do want positive upsets because Ohio State is on the knife edge. One or two negative upsets and Ohio State is on the outside looking in.
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Nebrasketball, you've picked the wrong day for a letdown game.
Get a hold of yourself, please!
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And in response to my urging, Nebraska goes on a 9-0 run. Thank you.
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been a good 2nd half team - :bravo_2:
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Thank you, Nebraska.
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played some Defense in the 2nd half
I was gonna sign up for Youtube TV this morning to watch this game, unfortunately a friend showed up and caused me to miss signing up.
Base Plan - 21-day free trial - $82.99/mo
Thought that was a good thing when down by 16 - listened on the radio.....
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The football school gave the basketball school a scare in Bloomington, but the basketball school pulled it out
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The football school gave the basketball school a scare in Bloomington, but the basketball school pulled it out
Now Wisconsin is leading Michigan about midway through the second half in Ann Arbor and Penn State is holding their own in West Lafayette so far. I'm not suggesting that I expect those scores to hold up but, intersting day so far.
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Now Wisconsin is leading Michigan about midway through the second half in Ann Arbor and Penn State is holding their own in West Lafayette so far. I'm not suggesting that I expect those scores to hold up but, intersting day so far.
Wisconsin is on a 96 point pace against KenPom's #1 defense...and it's tied 65-65. So seems unlikely
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nice road win for the Badgers
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How bout them Badgers
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Wisconsin is on a 96 point pace against KenPom's #1 defense...and it's tied 65-65. So seems unlikely
Shows what I know
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Wisconsin is on a 96 point pace against KenPom's #1 defense...and it's tied 65-65. So seems unlikely
Purdue looks safe even if the game is closer than expected but Wisconsin managed a huge upset in Ann Arbor, wow.
I expected that the Wolverines would drop a league game eventually but I figured it would be a road game, maybe on short rest.
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Didn't see that one coming.
Maybe the Badgers are finally coming together.
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Penn State probably pushed Purdue further than they liked, but Purdue pulled away. With about 5:30 to go, PSU closed it to 7, but then Purdue stretched it to 15 in about 40 seconds of game time with a couple of steal / fast break / and-1 plays.
Braden Smith scored 26 pts and dished 14 ast for his double-double, and Oscar Cluff dominated inside with 23 points in 30 minutes.
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Didn't see that one coming.
Maybe the Badgers are finally coming together.
Greg Gard is still good at this.
Schedule sets up interestingly. At Minnesota projects is a bit of a tossup, then five games where they’re projected with a 65 percent chance to win or better. If they can win at least five from that, in great shape. Four or less, it’s a tougher road.
After that, it’s two of the three toughest remaining games back-to-back, then five-ish tossups in a row, followed by a bad Maryland team at home, then at Purdue.
Realistically, they need to pull at least eight more wins to dance, which seems the goal considering some transfer struggles. Hopefully that’s doable.
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Badgers have to many good shooters to be as poor as they had been from outside the arc. Were due for an adjustment.
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Badgers have to many good shooters to be as poor as they had been from outside the arc. Were due for an adjustment.
If they wanna shoot that way going forward, I’d accept that.
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Buckeyes tournament hopes took a big hit in Seattle.
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Ohio State is 8-2/1-1 with 21 games remaining so here are those games roughly sorted (using @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's composite rankings) into what I *THINK* is easiest/most likely win (#1) to toughest/most likely loss (#21):
- vs nr Grambling on 12/23 - WON
- vs #126 Minnesota on 1/20
- at #143 Rutgers on 1/2 - WON
- vs #83 Penn State on 1/26
- at #102 Maryland on 2/5
- at #104 Oregon on 1/8 - WON
- at #83 Penn State on 3/4
- at #63 Washington on 1/11 - LOST
- vs #34 UCLA on 1/17
- vs #33 Indiana on 3/7
- vs #32 Wisconsin on 2/17
- vs #29 USC on 2/11
- vs #? UVA in Nashville on 2/14
- at #32 Wisconsin on 1/31
- at #27 Iowa on 2/25
- vs #22 Nebraska on 1/5 - LOST
- vs #15 UNC in ATL on 12/20
- vs #6 Purdue on 3/1
- vs #1 Michigan on 2/8
- at #9 MSU on 2/22
- at #1 Michigan on 1/23
IMHO, 19-12 is basically knife edge. Probably in but might fall out with a bad BTT loss or a strong bubble. 20-11 is almost certainly in and 18-13 would require an unlikely run in the BTT. So to get to 19-11 by winning the easiest games they would have to win #1-11 which also presumes that they would lose #12-21.
I did this almost a month ago and, unfortunately, things are not trending well for the Buckeyes. Note the addition of results in BOLD above.
3-2 sounds good and the loss to Nebraska isn't bad considering that at this point they are a top-10 team but the loss to Washington is problematic. It is early so nothing is really a 'must win' but for each loss that Ohio State takes in games 1-11 above, they are going to need a win in one of games 12-21 above. The Buckeyes' next two games are home games against UCLA (#9 above) and Minnesota (#2 above). If they lose either of those I doubt that they'll make the NCAA.
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This is the 4th straight year of complete mediocrity. I'll pay more attention if they beat someone with a pulse.
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Badgers live and die by the three, and they've done a lot of dying this year. But they were hot in Ann Arbor.
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Associated Press Top-25 rankings.
The Huskers, now 16-0 this season, jumped up two spots in this week’s poll to No. 8, tying the highest rating in program history set in 1966.
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Badgers live and die by the three, and they've done a lot of dying this year. But they were hot in Ann Arbor.
My view:
- This isn't unique to the Badgers. I don't have data at hand and don't want to take the time to look it up but it certainly seems that the three is a MUCH bigger part of the game than it was not too long ago.
- I think that reliance on the three creates higher variability because on a good night any team is going to put up a LOT of points.
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my view as well
seems teams really don't try to score in the paint any longer. At least the few games I've watched.
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This is the 4th straight year of complete mediocrity. I'll pay more attention if they beat someone with a pulse.
They FINALLY did what needed to be done wrt the previous coach but at this point the current coach's seat should be considered warm at a minimum.
I don't know enough about NIL to know for sure but it would seem likely to me that Ohio State has at least enough NIL funding that they *SHOULD* be able to field a competitive team so this is unacceptable*.
- Likely to miss NCAA AGAIN in 2026
- 17-14/9-11 finish to regular season in 2025, lost BTT opener, no further postseason
- 19-12/9-11 finish to regular season in 2024, 1-1 in BTT, 2-1 in NIT
- 13-18/5-15 finish to regular season in 2023, 3-1 in BTT, no further postseason
- 19-10/12-8 finish to regular season in 2022, lost BTT opener, 1-1 in NCAA
- 18-8/12-8 finish to regular season in 2021, 3-1 in BTT, embarrassing 15 over 2 upset in NCAA (how the hell did we get a #2 seed with an 18-8 overall record? They did got 3-1 in the BTT but in retrospect it was a four point win over a bad MN, an OT win over PU, and a one point win over Michigan. This team wasn't appreciably better than 2022, 2024, or 2025.
- 21-10/11-9 finish to regular season in 2020, no BTT or further postseason due to COVID.
- 18-13/8-12 finish to regular season in 2019, 1-1 in BTT, 1-1 in NCAA.
- 24-7/15-3 finish to regular season in 2018, 0-1 in BTT, 1-1 in NCAA.
- 17-14/7-11 finish to regular season in 2017, 0-1 in BTT, no further postseason.
- 19-12/11-7 finish to regular season in 2016, 1-1 in BTT, 1-1 in NIT.
- 22-9/11-7 finish to regular season in 2015, 1-1 in BTT, 1-1 in NCAA.
- 23-8/10-8 finish to regular season in 2014, 2-1 in BTT, 0-1 in NCAA (lost the play-in).
- 23-7/13-5 finish to regular season in 2013, 2-1 in BTT, 3-1 in NCAA.
Seasons in BOLD missed the NCAA.
2025/26 is the 13th season since the last time Ohio State played a second weekend NCAA game. I believe that is an all-time worst drought for the program (in terms of absence from the S16).
*I don't know the in's and out's of NIL well enough to know which of the following is true, either:
- Ohio State isn't spending enough NIL on BBall to compete, or
- Ohio State isn't properly allocating BBall NIL.
That said, it is either one of the two above of the coach isn't coaching well enough or some combination of the three.
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my view as well
seems teams really don't try to score in the paint any longer. At least the few games I've watched.
What I think we've been seeing is that teams ONLY try to shoot three-pointers OR score in the paint. There's very little midrange game.
The analytics seem to have shown that the midrange 2-point shot was too low of a shooting percentage to be worth it for only 2 points, i.e. your "expected point per attempt" isn't high enough.
Get closer [into the paint] and your expected points go up due to higher shooting percentage; move further away [beyond the arc] and your expected points go up due to an extra point being awarded for making the basket.
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What I think we've been seeing is that teams ONLY try to shoot three-pointers OR score in the paint. There's very little midrange game.
The analytics seem to have shown that the midrange 2-point shot was too low of a shooting percentage to be worth it for only 2 points, i.e. your "expected point per attempt" isn't high enough.
Get closer [into the paint] and your expected points go up due to higher shooting percentage; move further away [beyond the arc] and your expected points go up due to an extra point being awarded for making the basket.
As a data guy, it always annoyed me when MY team would shoot a long two because of the expected points issue you outlined above. However, now that EVERYBODY has pretty much abandoned the midrange game in favor of taking shots almost exclusively from either point blank or behind the arc, I don't like what it has done to the game.
What makes it worse is that I don't think it can be fixed without RADICAL changes such as:
- Raising the rim: This sounds a bit insane because it is radical but my argument for it is that when Nasmith invented the game over 100 years ago 6-footers were probably rarer than 7-footers are now. Thus, raising the rim up to 11' would put today's players the same distance from it that the players of 100+ years ago were from the 10' rim.
- Changing the scoring structure such that the long range shot gets a smaller bonus. Ie, instead of 2 and 3 go to 3 and 4. That way the bonus would only be 33.33% instead of 50%.
- Pushing the arc back and/or making in uniform.
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What I think we've been seeing is that teams ONLY try to shoot three-pointers OR score in the paint. There's very little midrange game.
The analytics seem to have shown that the midrange 2-point shot was too low of a shooting percentage to be worth it for only 2 points, i.e. your "expected point per attempt" isn't high enough.
Get closer [into the paint] and your expected points go up due to higher shooting percentage; move further away [beyond the arc] and your expected points go up due to an extra point being awarded for making the basket.
they pass up layups to shoot 3s
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I'm all right with basketball right now. With the charge/block rules there is real value to attack the paint while also allowing defenders to play defense. Three pointers seems to have hit their peak, too.
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Shaky starts to both halfs, but a 26-2 run exploded a 53-53 tie to 79-55
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Wisconsin rallied from down 11, play the end badly, but bail themselves out with a buzzer-beater to avoid OT.
The second game this season showing some real high-end grit. Also means a win in a key swing game. Feeling pretty neat about it.
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starting to believe in Nebrasketball
(https://i.imgur.com/gjhebwR.jpeg)
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Wisconsin rallied from down 11, play the end badly, but bail themselves out with a buzzer-beater to avoid OT.
The second game this season showing some real high-end grit. Also means a win in a key swing game. Feeling pretty neat about it.
Grit is great--so was the win (suck it, SFGopher!)--but there will be games, could be the first round of the tourney, when the 3s just don't fall. It's a shaky foundation.
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Grit is great--so was the win (suck it, SFGopher!)--but there will be games, could be the first round of the tourney, when the 3s just don't fall. It's a shaky foundation.
My thought on this team is just getting to the tournament would be enough.
Two of their top three portal additions just haven’t been good enough at role guys. The top three is good, but also not super high ceiling for most of the year (the guards have had the moments, and Winter has been quite good, but not run a game great).
The part about the 3s I shrug at. They’re just jumpers. Really valuable ones. If they were more reliant on long 2s that’s not good. If they were more reliant on post ups/drives/drawing fouls, a tournament whistle can spell just as much trouble as open 3s not falling, probably more.
The main issue with this team is the defense just isn’t all that good or cohesive. Winter is a nice enough rim protector, but not an ace, and the perimeter defenders have all been inconsistent, with Carrington and sometimes Blackwell and Janicki being the best. If your defense is that, you’ll have to bet on high-upside offense.
Upcoming stretch is interesting. They project to be favored by 4 or more in the next five, with four home games, none against top opponents, and a trip to Penn State. Considering they have 12 wins, and 19 is probably lock territory, cashing in at least four of those five would be big. (Especially with almost entirely long shots or tossups the rest of the way)
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Rock fights from here out
https://twitter.com/SpartyWRLD/status/2011454365819863507?s=20
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Rock fights from here out
https://twitter.com/SpartyWRLD/status/2011454365819863507?s=20
Izzo is so happy.
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My thought on this team is just getting to the tournament would be enough.
According to @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's table, Ohio State and Wisconsin are nearly identical and I think the situation is similar for both. On any given good day they can have a great game and light someone up (ie, UW winning in Ann Arbor) but on a bad day they are vulnerable to any B1G team. I think both will wind up somewhere close to the bubble with the difference being a few buckets here or there. Despite @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's table ranking them almost identically, Wisconsin seems to be in a little better place largely because of the upset win in Ann Arbor.
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According to @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's table, Ohio State and Wisconsin are nearly identical and I think the situation is similar for both. On any given good day they can have a great game and light someone up (ie, UW winning in Ann Arbor) but on a bad day they are vulnerable to any B1G team. I think both will wind up somewhere close to the bubble with the difference being a few buckets here or there. Despite @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's table ranking them almost identically, Wisconsin seems to be in a little better place largely because of the upset win in Ann Arbor.
The table is just net efficiency and conference play, which isn’t all that meaningful early on.
I saw one metric that has OSU in worse shape by a decent margin, though I suppose that reflects Ohio State being a bit behind and having a bunch oh harder games ahead.
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Yeah, it's like a 6 game sample size.
However, KenPom has Wisconsin #37 and Ohio State #38
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Yeah, it's like a 6 game sample size.
However, KenPom has Wisconsin #37 and Ohio State #38
That’s true. I don’t pay for KenPom, and thus am using T-Rank where the gap is 36-43, but it just looks like UW is in a better spot.
The Badgers are a win ahead, have the Michigan win and a slightly better set of Q1/Q2 wins. But more than that, the schedule stands out.
Again, per T-Rank, Wisconsin has three games harder than at OSU. The Buckeyes have seven games harder than that one. Wisconsin has five games left vs teams better than OSU, two at home. OSU has seven vs teams better than UW, three at home, one neutral.
Not that OSU can’t make it work, but with fine margins and needing the big wins, the path is tighter.
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BPI has OSU #36 and Wisconsin #37.
But the resume metrics favor Wisconsin, and Wisconsin has the substantially easier schedule going forward. Wisconsin actually has the easiest remaining schedule in the conference, based on BPI, which is the only free metric which measures that.
Wisconsin has been the 5th "luckiest" team in the conference, which is just essentially record vs. expected record based on efficiencies. Which is why I love SOR when it comes to selecting teams. Don't use it to gamble, but use it to choose teams. OSU is #16. Sadly USC and Rutgers are #1 and #2
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hawks gave the boilers a game tonight
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Not that OSU can’t make it work, but with fine margins and needing the big wins, the path is tighter.
That is my concern and speaking of that, the Buckeyes host UCLA on Saturday. It is probably too early in the season to call a game a "must win" but this is awfully close. UCLA is a better team but not by all that much (29 vs 35 in BPI) and Ohio State has what should be some major advantages:
- For the Bruins this is the second half of a long road-trip.
- UCLA will be on three days rest after playing at PSU on Wednesday.
- Ohio State is at home.
- Ohio State should be well rested having played their last game at Washington on Sunday.
In theory the Buckeyes could lose this and still make the NCAA but it would require a much less likely victory down the road. The path is already narrow for the Buckeyes so they can ill afford losses in winnable games.
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That is my concern and speaking of that, the Buckeyes host UCLA on Saturday. It is probably too early in the season to call a game a "must win" but this is awfully close. UCLA is a better team but not by all that much (29 vs 35 in BPI) and Ohio State has what should be some major advantages:
- For the Bruins this is the second half of a long road-trip.
- UCLA will be on three days rest after playing at PSU on Wednesday.
- Ohio State is at home.
- Ohio State should be well rested having played their last game at Washington on Sunday.
In theory the Buckeyes could lose this and still make the NCAA but it would require a much less likely victory down the road. The path is already narrow for the Buckeyes so they can ill afford losses in winnable games.
Per T-Rank, UCLA is the fifth-most likely win left out of 15.
With 11 wins, you’d like at least seven more, likely eight?
If they can win that one, the four easiest, Wisconsin at home at Penn State, you need one upset to get to that eight. That makes it sound less bad.
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I’m realizing that bad Wisconsin means a better chance that I could actually see them in person in the tournament. That’s interesting.
Whereas, if they are good, they either get a spot in the Midwest or get banished to be one of the not quite top seeds in a western locale because of the unbalanced sites.
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From ESPN - "Twenty men have been charged in a point-shaving scheme involving more than 39 college basketball players on 17 NCAA Division I teams, leading to more than 29 games being fixed, according to a federal indictment unsealed Thursday in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. Fifteen of the defendants played college basketball during the 2023-24 and/or 2024-25 seasons, according to the indictment."
https://twitter.com/espn/status/2011826569816195331
(https://i.imgur.com/HK9WAU1.png)
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Per T-Rank, UCLA is the fifth-most likely win left out of 15.
With 11 wins, you’d like at least seven more, likely eight?
If they can win that one, the four easiest, Wisconsin at home at Penn State, you need one upset to get to that eight. That makes it sound less bad.
This is more-or-less exactly how I analyze it.
It wouldn't take anything ridiculous for the Buckeyes to make the tournament. That said, I wouldn't bet on it because even if they beat UCLA, get one upset, win at PSU, and beat UW in Columbus they'd still be likely out if they suffer a negative upset somewhere along the way.
On wins my thinking pretty much matches yours:
- 20-11 or better is almost certainly in.
- 19-12 is probably in but could be left out with a bad BTT loss and/or a strong bubble.
- 18-13 would require a REALLY good run in the BTT.
- 17-14 or worse is almost certainly out.
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Just learned Purdue doesn't play road games at Michigan, MSU, or Illinois. Immediately put in $ on them to win the Big Ten
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Just learned Purdue doesn't play road games at Michigan, MSU, or Illinois. Immediately put in $ on them to win the Big Ten
I've been beating the drum about uneven conference schedules in football in the mega-conference era but it applies to BB as well. This has actually been an issue for a while in BB but the mega-conference change makes it a bigger issue. Those and at Nebraska are probably the four toughest games that Purdue could possibly have in the league and somehow they miss three of the four, wow.
Purdue's league road games this year:
- Rutgers, won 81-65
- Wisconsin, won 89-73
- USC, 1/17
- UCLA, 1/20
- Indiana, 1/27
- Maryland, 2/1
- Nebraska, 2/10
- Iowa, 2/14
- Ohio State, 3/1
- Northwestern, 3/4
Here are B1G teams sorted by BPI rank and whether or not Purdue visits them this year:
- 2 Michigan, no
- 7 Purdue, n/a
- 8 Illinois, no
- 18 MSU, no
- 20 UNL, 2/10
- 23 IU, 1/27
- 29 UCLA, 1/20
- 30 Iowa, 2/14
- 35 tOSU, 3/1
- 36 UW, won
- 50 USC, 1/17
- 54 UDub, no
- 60 NU, 3/4
- 72 MN, no
- 74 Ore, no
- 82 UMD, 2/1
- 104 PSU, no
- 126 RU, won
Note for @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , this isn't to denigrate Purdue it is just looking at the reality that schedules in the mega-conference era can vary a LOT.
Also note that with 18 teams and 20 league games each team plays three teams twice. For Purdue those are #6 IU, #8 Iowa, and #10 UW. Thus, Purdue only plays four total games and only one road game against the top-5 teams in the league and the ONE road game is against #5.
If we were doing tier-based projections (more on that in a later post) I think we'd project them to go either 19-1 (loss in Lincoln) or 18-2 (Lincoln and Bloomington).
Then if you look at Michigan which is a consensus better team they'd have a lower projection because they play:
- AT #2 PU on 2/17
- AT #3 Illinois on 2/27
- AT #4 MSU on 1/30
- vs #4 MSU on 3/8
- vs #5 UNL on 1/27
Against the top-5:
- Michigan has 5 games, 3 on the road.
- Purdue has 4 games, 1 on the road.
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On tiers:
For those not familiar: For years we operated a projection system that used tiers where each team was expected to win all of their home games except those against teams two or more tiers higher and lose all of the road games except those against teams two or more tiers lower.
This ended up serving a few functions for us:
- It gave us a reasonably accurate projection of where all the teams would finish, and
- It helped us to avoid the "talking head trap" of thinking that a team on a streak was Great/Terrible without looking at the schedule to realize that they were actually on a streak because they had a particularly easy/tough stretch.
As an example, Michigan finishes the regular season on a six game stretch of:
- AT Purdue
- vs DOOK in DC
- vs Minnesota
- AT Illinois
- AT Iowa
- vs MSU
That is brutal. To be honest, 3-3 would be pretty good, 4-2 would be very good, and anything better than that would be amazing. Now if they end up going 2-4 that honestly isn't all that bad but I guarantee that there will be talking heads shouting "What is wrong with Michigan?" Well the answer would be that nothing is "wrong", they just played a REALLY tough stretch of games. No reason for wailing and gnashing of teeth among the Wolverine fans.
Now the problem. It has gotten awfully big for me to try to manage it. What I used to do was to assign tiers then use that to calculate a mathematical projected record on a double-round-robin. Then I'd back out the games not played to come up with a mathematical projection before upsets. Then I'd add in positive upsets and subtract out negative upsets to come up with a final mathematical projection. Then I had each game with either a result or an assigned projection and used that to come up with a separate projection and I double-checked the two projections against each other to make sure I had everything entered right.
Back when we had 14 teams and 20 games each team only had six "games not played" so this was manageable. Now that we have 18 teams and 20 games each team has 14 games not played so it is a data-entry nightmare.
I just thought I'd throw this out there to get suggestions. One thought I have is that I could make it a Google Sheet and then share it with a few of you guys and that way we could split up the data entry. I'd make the "shell" and then just pass it along for others to enter games not played and individual games.
Thoughts?
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I've been beating the drum about uneven conference schedules in football in the mega-conference era but it applies to BB as well. This has actually been an issue for a while in BB but the mega-conference change makes it a bigger issue. Those and at Nebraska are probably the four toughest games that Purdue could possibly have in the league and somehow they miss three of the four, wow.
Purdue's league road games this year:
- Rutgers, won 81-65
- Wisconsin, won 89-73
- USC, 1/17
- UCLA, 1/20
- Indiana, 1/27
- Maryland, 2/1
- Nebraska, 2/10
- Iowa, 2/14
- Ohio State, 3/1
- Northwestern, 3/4
Here are B1G teams sorted by BPI rank and whether or not Purdue visits them this year:
- 2 Michigan, no
- 7 Purdue, n/a
- 8 Illinois, no
- 18 MSU, no
- 20 UNL, 2/10
- 23 IU, 1/27
- 29 UCLA, 1/20
- 30 Iowa, 2/14
- 35 tOSU, 3/1
- 36 UW, won
- 50 USC, 1/17
- 54 UDub, no
- 60 NU, 3/4
- 72 MN, no
- 74 Ore, no
- 82 UMD, 2/1
- 104 PSU, no
- 126 RU, won
Note for @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , this isn't to denigrate Purdue it is just looking at the reality that schedules in the mega-conference era can vary a LOT.
Also note that with 18 teams and 20 league games each team plays three teams twice. For Purdue those are #6 IU, #8 Iowa, and #10 UW. Thus, Purdue only plays four total games and only one road game against the top-5 teams in the league and the ONE road game is against #5.
If we were doing tier-based projections (more on that in a later post) I think we'd project them to go either 19-1 (loss in Lincoln) or 18-2 (Lincoln and Bloomington).
Then if you look at Michigan which is a consensus better team they'd have a lower projection because they play:
- AT #2 PU on 2/17
- AT #3 Illinois on 2/27
- AT #4 MSU on 1/30
- vs #4 MSU on 3/8
- vs #5 UNL on 1/27
Against the top-5:
- Michigan has 5 games, 3 on the road.
- Purdue has 4 games, 1 on the road.
Not to derail the basketball thread, but that's why I kind of liked a 4 team tournament for the CCG.
End the season a week earlier, then on Thanksgiving weekend #1 hosts #4, and #2 hosts #3. Then going down 5-6, 7-8, 9-10, 11-12, 13-14, 15-16, and 17-18 play. For those you can shuffle to avoide rematches, but those would all be conference games. Then the winners of the "semis" would go to Indy. Now that they reformatted the playoff and made the Big Ten and SEC Championships irrelevant, whatever, don't bother
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Note for @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , this isn't to denigrate Purdue it is just looking at the reality that schedules in the mega-conference era can vary a LOT.
No personal offense taken. I hadn't realized this either, but I'm pretty stoked about it. Nice to get some good luck on the scheduling front.
That said, while I'm happy about the fact that it might benefit Purdue when it comes to NCAA seeding and potentially where the team is geographically placed in the bracket, I think these uneven conference schedules affect the bubble teams like OSU much more significantly, as you've pointed out.
I.e. despite their current rankings with UM ahead of PU, Purdue with a favorable home/road split would have a solid chance of moving up to a 1 seed, while Michigan with an unfavorable home/road split has might end up dropping to a 2 seed. But overall both teams are going to be solidly in the field and with a pretty good draw.
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I’m realizing that bad Wisconsin means a better chance that I could actually see them in person in the tournament. That’s interesting.
Whereas, if they are good, they either get a spot in the Midwest or get banished to be one of the not quite top seeds in a western locale because of the unbalanced sites.
This has happened far too often for my liking.
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This has happened far too often for my liking.
I've been tracking it for YEARS and I'll share it again when we get closer to tournament time but the NCAA insists on having two or three of their opening round sites in the Mountain and Pacific Timezones every year despite that fact that those timezones almost never actually produce anywhere near enough #1-4 seeds to fill them. Consequently a LOT of 4-5 seeds from the east end up out west.
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so, would it be better to be a 4-5 seed out west or a 6-7 seed back closer to home?
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This has happened far too often for my liking.
I don’t totally see any way around it.
if they are good enough to get seeding preference, they stay home. If they aren’t, someone with seating preference is closer to all the other places.
They do need to cut down to at most one western site in the first round, but for now, it is what it is.
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I don’t totally see any way around it.
Ah, yes you do:
They do need to cut down to at most one western site in the first round, but for now, it is what it is.
This is the way around it.
They obviously have the data that I have.
To clarify, I would have no objection at all if the Mountain and Pacific timezones produced an average of 10 top-4 seeds but once in a while they only produced 2 so in those outlier years a bunch of Eastern #3 and #4 seeds got shipped out West. That would just be a bad luck situation. That is NOT what is happening. What IS happening is that history shows that the Mountain and Pacific timezones on average produce only enough top-4 seeds to justify having barely over one first round site and yet year after year the NCAA insists on having too many Western sites for the available Western top-4 seeds. Ie, they either know better or they should know better and they continue on anyway.
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They like the Doors.
(https://ramsondemand.com/attachments/the-west-is-the-best-jpg.22444/)
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I always thought moving around was more for the fans everywhere to have the opportunity to attend when its close. If they wanted to just give the better seeds an advantage theyd just do it on home courts
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I think they should an opening weekend in Honolulu. Or maybe try to drum up some American territories support and do it in Guam or American Samoa.
(Secretly I just want to watch Badge's head explode when Wisconsin is shipped even further west...)
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First ever Greenland regional
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Never thought I'd see Wisconsin win 2 games in a week, where they gave up 88 and 87 points.
It's certainly a new era in Madison
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Never thought I'd see Wisconsin win 2 games in a week, where they gave up 88 and 87 points.
It's certainly a new era in Madison
That game was profoundly irritating. Like, not much reason to not play crisp and man they didn't.
I just want to make the dance. Anything else is gravy.
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a 6-7 seed back closer to home?
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Florida and IU have traded being football/basketball schools. Gators winning games on the road vs ranked opp. We're a top 8 team that just happened to have a few 1-3 point losses vs other top 8 teams.
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IU is a basketball school like Nebraska is a football school.
They like it a lot, but they haven't been any good in a long time.
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I couldn't see it because it was on Peacock, but apparently Purdue beat USC in a rock fight yesterday afternoon in LA. Long stretches of poor shooting, disjointed team play, just not locked in. Tied at 60-60 with 2 minutes to play before the Boilers pulled away to win 69-64.
My question for the followers of CBB...
This was Purdue's first game of their West Coast swing. They had Iowa in West Lafayette on Wednesday and had to play in LA on Saturday.
How much do you think this is the sort of normal down/sloppy game that every team has once in a while, and how much is the 3-time-zone travel adjustment?
Purdue stays out here to face UCLA on Tuesday, who played in State College last Wednesday and Columbus yesterday, so the script might flip, as they say here in Tinseltown.
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I couldn't see it because it was on Peacock, but apparently Purdue beat USC in a rock fight yesterday afternoon in LA.
Peacock schmeacock, you could have gone to the game.
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Yeah, in retrospect I'm kicking myself for not buying a ticket.
But MAN do I hate driving to effing LA. Even on a Saturday.
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Peacock is $5/Month...
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You could always engineer yourself a secret tunnel.
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Purdue stays out here to face UCLA on Tuesday, who played in State College last Wednesday and Columbus yesterday, so the script might flip, as they say here in Tinseltown.
This comes up a lot where the Eastern team on the second half of their West Coast swing has less travel to get to the game than the home team. Still, there is something to be said for being at home rather than living out of a suitcase.
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I couldn't see it because it was on Peacock, but apparently Purdue beat USC in a rock fight yesterday afternoon in LA. Long stretches of poor shooting, disjointed team play, just not locked in. Tied at 60-60 with 2 minutes to play before the Boilers pulled away to win 69-64.
My question for the followers of CBB...
This was Purdue's first game of their West Coast swing. They had Iowa in West Lafayette on Wednesday and had to play in LA on Saturday.
How much do you think this is the sort of normal down/sloppy game that every team has once in a while, and how much is the 3-time-zone travel adjustment?
Purdue stays out here to face UCLA on Tuesday, who played in State College last Wednesday and Columbus yesterday, so the script might flip, as they say here in Tinseltown.
I think it was on regular TV too? It was definitely showing up on my YouTube TV, which I don’t think is linked to a peacock account.
Probably just a sloppy game, or an up game for USC at home. I would guess there is a slight challenge with that trip, but probably not one that is super trackable.
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(https://i.imgur.com/RHnxjwI.jpeg)
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Peacock is $5/Month...
Which you know I can easily afford.
It's the principle of the thing.
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yup, Youtube TV is only $82.99/month
I'm not payin
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[img width=273.619 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/RHnxjwI.jpeg[/img]
I miss those days (2010-11) in case that wasn't clear.
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Maryland is annihilating Penn State which will be the first league win of the season for the Terps leaving only PSU and NU winless.
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Maryland is annihilating Penn State which will be the first league win of the season for the Terps leaving only PSU and NU winless.
I thought PSU might have a little more gumption. Badgers head there on Thursday, which bears a little watching.
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I thought PSU might have a little more gumption. Badgers head there on Thursday, which bears a little watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvlalDNxccw
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Maryland is annihilating Penn State which will be the first league win of the season for the Terps leaving only PSU and NU winless.
Penn State has never had fans. Maryland having no fans should be concerning to administration
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(https://i.imgur.com/cbzC2Bm.jpeg)
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Will be at tonight's Purdue @ UCLA game.
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Will be at tonight's Purdue @ UCLA game.
I'll wave as you drive by on the 5...
Incidentally, I'll be down in San Diego visiting customers tomorrow...
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Florida and IU have traded being football/basketball schools. Gators winning games on the road vs ranked opp. We're a top 8 team that just happened to have a few 1-3 point losses vs other top 8 teams.
Just out of curiosity, because Torvik allows you to sort by date. I sorted based on when Big Ten play started in earnest, after NYD. Nebraska is the best team in the conference. Florida is #2 nationally, and EASILY the best the in the SEC. Texas is #2 at #24.
But behind Nebraska, Illinois is #6, MSU is #9, Wisconsin #18, Ohio State #21, Iowa #23 (while going 1-3), Purdue #28 and Michigan #30.
So I think the race is still open. Purdue and Michigan I think are still the two best teams, but they've sort of been sleep walking for 3 weeks now, even while going a combined 7-1
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Ohio State is now 12-5/4-3. My view of the bubble:
- 20-11 or better is almost certainly in even with a bad 1st game BTT loss.
- 19-12 is probably in but might need to at least avoid a bad BTT loss.
- 18-13 is on the bubble, would need to win a few games in the BTT.
- 17-14 is almost certainly out but might sneak in with a run to the B1GCG.
- 16-15 or worse is out without winning the BTT.
So 'the bubble' is basically 17-19 wins meaning 5-7 more in the 14 remaining.
Here are Ohio State's remaining games sorted by Torvik's likelihood of winning:
- 88% vs PSU 1/26
- 75% vs MN tonight.
- 71% vs USC 2/11
- 69% vs at PSU 3/4
- 65% at Maryland 2/5
- 64% vs Wisconsin 2/17
- 52% vs Indiana 3/7
- 34% at Wisconsin 1/31
- 31% vs Purdue 3/1
- 22% vs UVA in Nashville 2/14
- 17% vs Michigan 2/8
- 17% at Iowa 2/25
- 15% at Michigan State 2/22
- 6% at Michigan on Friday.
There is definitely a path but I think it is narrower than it appears. If they just win the 50%+ games, that gets them to 19-12 and probably in. The problem is that they have more close "should wins" than close "should lose". The seven games that they "should lose" would take a pretty big upset to win any of those so they really can't afford to lose any of the 'should win' games.
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Massey composite rankings...47 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- Arizona (1)
- MICHIGAN (2)
- Duke (5)
- PURDUE (4)
- Gonzaga (8)
- Connecticut (7)
- Houston (10)
- NEBRASKA (11)
- MICHIGAN STATE (13)
- ILLINOIS (12)
- Iowa State (3)
- BYU (9)
- Vanderbilt (6)
- Virginia (16)
- Florida (17)
- Texas Tech (15)
- Alabama (14)
- Kansas (21)
- Louisville (20)
- Clemson (25)
- St. John's (24)
- Arkansas (23)
- Georgia (22)
- Saint Louis (-)
- IOWA (-)
35. Wisconsin (38)
39. Ohio State (44)
40. USC (41)
44. Indiana (37)
47. UCLA (45)
60. Washington (54)
89. Minnesota (83)
91. Oregon (92)
92. Northwestern (91)
118. Penn State (104)
121. Maryland (129)
132. Rutgers (133)
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that's wack!
I can see some pollsters voting UNL up there because of number of losses - not massey
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that's wack!
I can see some pollsters voting UNL up there because of number of losses - not massey
It's not Massey's own rankings. It's a composite of a bunch of other ranking systems.
If you look at the site, it'll show you exactly where Nebraska is ranked in each: https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cb
Nebraska ranges from as high as 2 to as low as 19.
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2nd!!! In basketball! Yeah right, and Indiana is #1 in football.
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MSU defense remains on pace to be the best in like 20 years, while their offense continues to make Kelvin Sampson wonder what the hell they are running
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2nd!!! In basketball! Yeah right, and Indiana is #1 in football.
if the Hoosiers can win the football title, the Huskers can make the final 4
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Will be at tonight's Purdue @ UCLA game.
Quite a memorable game to go to last night. #4 Purdue upset by UCLA 69-67.
Last night was also John Wooden legacy night, which made sense to hold while hosting Purdue because Wooden, a native of Indiana, played his college ball at Purdue from 1929-1932. To commemorate, a bobble head was issued to the first 7000 fans:
(https://i.imgur.com/2KOYY52.png)
As for the game itself, it started as expected, with Purdue taking a double digit lead early. And most of us thought it would only get worse for UCLA from there. Purdue is too disciplined, too strong on defense, and too strong on the inside to let an over-matched UCLA team back in.
But UCLA fought back for a 32-32 tie at the half after adjusting to Purdue's inside attack. The Bruins also got a career day from transfer guard Donovan Dent setting the tempo for most of the second half. Purdue took a 67-61 with just over a minute left before UCLA went on an 8-0 run that included two threes.
(https://i.imgur.com/hX7bLlv.jpeg)
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I'm glad it was sequestered on Peacock so I didn't have to watch that.
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looks like more than 7,000 showed up
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Quite a memorable game to go to last night. #4 Purdue upset by UCLA 69-67.
Last night was also John Wooden legacy night, which made sense to hold while hosting Purdue because Wooden, a native of Indiana, played his college ball at Purdue from 1929-1932. To commemorate, a bobble head was issued to the first 7000 fans:
(https://i.imgur.com/2KOYY52.png)
As for the game itself, it started as expected, with Purdue taking a double digit lead early. And most of us thought it would only get worse for UCLA from there. Purdue is too disciplined, too strong on defense, and too strong on the inside to let an over-matched UCLA team back in.
But UCLA fought back for a 32-32 tie at the half after adjusting to Purdue's inside attack. The Bruins also got a career day from transfer guard Donovan Dent setting the tempo for most of the second half. Purdue took a 67-61 with just over a minute left before UCLA went on an 8-0 run that included two threes.
(https://i.imgur.com/hX7bLlv.jpeg)
UCLA had some amazing shots bounce in and Loyer was hot garbage last night. In the end, that was the biggest reason they lost. However...
I'm usually not a huge "blame the refs" guy, but Holy Hell those were some "let 'em play" refs last night.
Purdue didn't get a free throw attempt until 5 minutes into the second half (and UCLA only had one before). There were only 10 total attempts combined for the entire game.
There were a couple of "blocks" by UCLA where the announcers were gushing over the athletic player who just blocked Smith's lay-up....with the replay clearly showing that he slapped his wrist and wasn't even close to hitting the ball. Two questionable goal-tending calls. etc. There were a couple of missed calls on the UCLA side that benefitted Purdue (couple of missed double dribbles), but overall, the mug-em style does not favor Purdue / Smith who tends to draw fouls by shot-faking and then shooting (You can't draw fouls if the refs don't actually call them and if you are "depending" on the foul being called and don't make the basket, you end up getting beat down the floor when you try to plea your case to the blind-ass ref).
Oh well. Move on. Bigger games coming down the pipeline that we need to be ready for.
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Wisconsin actually put an opponent away and kept the pressure on until the end in their win at Penn State yesterday. Yay!
And Northwestern with a pretty big win on the road at USC for their first Big Ten win.
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I'm glad it was sequestered on Peacock so I didn't have to watch that.
In a couple hours I'm probably going to wish Ohio State's game was on Peacock 🦚 tonight.
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In a couple hours I'm probably going to wish Ohio State's game was on Peacock 🦚 tonight.
Sure, OSU/UM is on Fox but Purdue/IU next week is on Peacock.
fPeacock
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Watching this Ohio State is in it being only down two and just lost the lead but . . .
It feels like the Buckeyes have played almost as well as they possibly could to get here and it is only a matter of time until the dirtbags go on a run and put it out of reach.
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I'm thrilled with the opening of the second half, I pretty much expected the Wolverines to come out on fire and pull away and instead the Buckeyes have pulled ahead.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWJDMsYua8w
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Wisconsin actually put an opponent away and kept the pressure on until the end in their win at Penn State yesterday. Yay!
And Northwestern with a pretty big win on the road at USC for their first Big Ten win.
That was good work!
The next three remain key. They should be somewhat heavy favorites for the next two and a modest favorite the game after. schedule gets harder after that and cashing these in now would open up the board in a big way.
Also, Penn State seems quite poor this year.
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Nebraska on a 39-15 run to turn an 8 point deficit into a 16 point lead
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2nd half team - Sandfort got going in the 2nd
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How did Maryland get THIS bad?
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I'll be in the Haymarket in Lincoln Tuesday night watching the 20-0 Huskers play Michigan - which is nice, since I don't have PeeCock at home.
hopin for a top 5 matchup
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How did Maryland get THIS bad?
They left the ACC.
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Braden Smith just went down clutching his ankle.
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Ok, back on the court. And dishes an assist. Phew!
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Well, crap.
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How did Maryland get THIS bad?
Buzz always starts from the bottom.
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MSU up to #4 in KenPom.
They have the #1 defense and #50 offense. To find a worse offense, you go all the way down to #30 Clemson.
It is interesting how much more efficient offenses are now. The exact same ratings that currently gove them the #50 offense and #1 defense, would be the #3 offense and #7 defense in 2009
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People irrationally hated Alabama football for doing nothing wrong, except winning a lot, and dont hate Alabama basketball nearly enough. Just playing accessories to murder, and getting donor judges to let them play former pros
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Alabama needs to add more pros
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watching big ten hockey
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(https://i.imgur.com/Kxh6Pmr.jpeg)
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MSU up to #4 in KenPom.
They have the #1 defense and #50 offense. To find a worse offense, you go all the way down to #30 Clemson.
It is interesting how much more efficient offenses are now. The exact same ratings that currently gove them the #50 offense and #1 defense, would be the #3 offense and #7 defense in 2009
Folks learned 3s are good, turnovers are real bad and mid-rangers aren’t great.
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(https://i.imgur.com/W3O0bYD.png)
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(https://i.imgur.com/6XVIwUz.jpeg)
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Wisconsin really f'd up yesterday.
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Wisconsin really f'd up yesterday.
:96:
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Wisconsin really f'd up yesterday.
Just some bad work. It was strange because there were a bunch of small things they probably could’ve cleaned up, But the biggest failure was missing open shots/missing the shots we hope you’d be able to make near the rim at that size.
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Blackwell was terrible. There's your ballgame.
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(https://i.imgur.com/JSvwiC3.jpeg)
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I have no idea what to think about Wisconsin at this point. Thought they had figured some things out, and then maybe take the worst conference loss anyone has yet
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(https://i.imgur.com/hTzx2pc.jpeg)
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I have no idea what to think about Wisconsin at this point. Thought they had figured some things out, and then maybe take the worst conference loss anyone has yet
If that's the worst loss, it's a pretty good first loss. I mean, I don't think USC is great, but they got some pieces.
It seems like this is a somewhat inconsistent Badgers team. They'd kind of positioned themselves to stay a bit ahead of that, assuming they took care of business, but that's not what inconsistent teams do. I think they'll grind to a lower seed, which seems about right.
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I have no idea what to think about Wisconsin at this point. Thought they had figured some things out, and then maybe take the worst conference loss anyone has yet
If that's the worst loss, it's a pretty good first loss. I mean, I don't think USC is great, but they got some pieces.
It seems like this is a somewhat inconsistent Badgers team. They'd kind of positioned themselves to stay a bit ahead of that, assuming they took care of business, but that's not what inconsistent teams do. I think they'll grind to a lower seed, which seems about right.
I think that @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) was exaggerating a bit in calling a loss to the now 4-5 Trojans the worst loss anyone has but it was pretty bad. It was a home loss to a sub .500 team that had to travel across the country to play the game.
It makes it hard to project the Badgers. Two weeks ago they walked into Crisler and knocked off the #2 ranked Wolverines which definitely IS the best conference win anyone has yet so it is hard to square the circle of "good enough to win at #2, bad enough to lose at home to a sub .500 also-ran."
FWIW, I do NOT think this is specific to Wisconsin. I'm having the same problem with my own team. When they are good, they look really good. They gave Michigan all they could handle at least until the U8 and did it on the road. They only lost to (now) #5 Nebraska by a bucket. They only lost to UNC by a single point in a 'neutral' game in Atlanta. Then there are the bad days . . . They lost to a bad UDub, lost to a bad Pitt, needed OT to beat Minnesota at home, etc.
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fPeacock
Was looking forward to #3 Michigan Vs #5 Nebraska tonight, expecting a Fox or FS1 broadcast, but nope. It's quarantined to Peacock.
Guess it's either Arkansas Vs Oklahoma or another Shark Tank rerun.
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I think that @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) was exaggerating a bit in calling a loss to the now 4-5 Trojans the worst loss anyone has but it was pretty bad. It was a home loss to a sub .500 team that had to travel across the country to play the game.
It makes it hard to project the Badgers. Two weeks ago they walked into Crisler and knocked off the #2 ranked Wolverines which definitely IS the best conference win anyone has yet so it is hard to square the circle of "good enough to win at #2, bad enough to lose at home to a sub .500 also-ran."
FWIW, I do NOT think this is specific to Wisconsin. I'm having the same problem with my own team. When they are good, they look really good. They gave Michigan all they could handle at least until the U8 and did it on the road. They only lost to (now) #5 Nebraska by a bucket. They only lost to UNC by a single point in a 'neutral' game in Atlanta. Then there are the bad days . . . They lost to a bad UDub, lost to a bad Pitt, needed OT to beat Minnesota at home, etc.
I guess I meant among contenders. But even aside from that, USC is #12 among Big Ten teams, and as you said, was travelling cross country. When they went to Michigan and Michigan State, they lost both games by 30.
The 6 teams behind them are a combined 3-24 on the road in conference, with the wins being Minnesota at Northwestern; Oregon at Maryland; and USC at Northwestern.
So as of now, I actually do think that is the worst loss anyone has had in conference.
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Massey composite rankings...49 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- Arizona (1)
- MICHIGAN (2)
- Duke (3)
- Connecticut (6)
- MICHIGAN STATE (9)
- NEBRASKA (8)
- Gonzaga (5)
- ILLINOIS (10)
- Iowa State (11)
- Houston (7)
- PURDUE (4)
- BYU (12)
- Texas Tech (16)
- Vanderbilt (13)
- Kansas (18)
- Florida (15)
- Virginia (14)
- Arkansas (22)
- Alabama (17)
- Louisville (19)
- Saint Louis (24)
- St. John's (20)
- North Carolina (-)
- Tennessee (-)
- Clemson (21)
27. Iowa (25)
37. Wisconsin (35)
38. Ohio State (39)
41. UCLA (47)
42. Indiana (44)
44. USC (40)
57. Washington (60)
79. Northwestern (92)
89. Minnesota (89)
98. Oregon (91)
129. Maryland (122)
133. Penn State (117)
137. Rutgers (131)
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According to Lunardi our league is quite bubblicious at the moment with with five of the teams somewhere on the bubble. Specifically:
- Wisconsin 10, Ohio State 10, and UCLA 10 are among the "last four byes".
- USC (play in vs TX for #11) is one of the "last four in"
- Indiana is one of the "first four out"
Wisconsin is in the midst of playing most of the rest of the bubble teams. They lost at home to USC on Sunday and after hosting Minnesota tomorrow night they host the Buckeyes then visit the Hoosiers.
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I guess I meant among contenders. But even aside from that, USC is #12 among Big Ten teams, and as you said, was travelling cross country. When they went to Michigan and Michigan State, they lost both games by 30.
The 6 teams behind them are a combined 3-24 on the road in conference, with the wins being Minnesota at Northwestern; Oregon at Maryland; and USC at Northwestern.
So as of now, I actually do think that is the worst loss anyone has had in conference.
As I said, if that’s the worst loss, it’s a pretty good worst loss, on balance.
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Was looking forward to #3 Michigan Vs #5 Nebraska tonight, expecting a Fox or FS1 broadcast, but nope. It's quarantined to Peacock.
Guess it's either Arkansas Vs Oklahoma or another Shark Tank rerun.
Purdue is in desperate need of a "get right" game as they head down to Assembly Hall in Bloomington to take on the Hoosiers tonight.
You'd think the biggest basketball rivalry in the Big Ten would be worth putting on a network, or ESPN, right?
Nope. Peacock.
Grrrr :96:
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I guess I meant among contenders. But even aside from that, USC is #12 among Big Ten teams, and as you said, was travelling cross country. When they went to Michigan and Michigan State, they lost both games by 30.
The 6 teams behind them are a combined 3-24 on the road in conference, with the wins being Minnesota at Northwestern; Oregon at Maryland; and USC at Northwestern.
So as of now, I actually do think that is the worst loss anyone has had in conference.
Tempting the basketball gods
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Purdue is in desperate need of a "get right" game as they head down to Assembly Hall in Bloomington to take on the Hoosiers tonight.
You'd think the biggest basketball rivalry in the Big Ten would be worth putting on a network, or ESPN, right?
Nope. Peacock.
Grrrr :96:
Nebraska-Michigan is on Peecock too.
If it's OSU, I'll just mozie on over to the casino and watch it. But I'm not doing that for rando big ten games.
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Rutgers beefed it
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Nebraska beefed it
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the refs beefed Nebraska, but I expected it
Huskers were the better team for the vast majority of the game. W/O their Big Guy and their 6th man
tough to win on the road
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Nebraska beefed it
On the road, with a 23-4 FT discrepancy, missing their best player. Not sure thats beefing it.
Now Purdue...
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On the road, with a 23-4 FT discrepancy, missing their best player. Not sure thats beefing it.
Now Purdue...
Actually, I thought it was in WL. Any road game is tough
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Now Purdue...
Tailspin.
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Tailspin.
I try not to overreact to streaks and these three were all challenging games but this is surprising. Purdue went into that UCLA game 17-1, #4 in the Nation, and looking like every bit of a #1 seed and since then:
- Lost at UCLA by 2, UCLA is 6-3 and this was a West Coast road game
- Lost at home to Illinois by 6
- Lost at Indiana by 5, Indiana is .500 even after the upset
This has definitely changed my perception of Purdue. I expected them to win each game and if they had dropped one, upsets happen. Dropping all three is more problematic. Purdue likely has no margin for error now if they want a share of the league title.
The good news is that Purdue has a couple weeks to get right. They visit Maryland on Sunday but Maryland is atrocious and then they host Oregon next Saturday which should be an easy win for them. After that, two weeks from yesterday they go to Nebraska then continue the road swing with a visit to Carver-Hawkeye on Valentine's Day.
Purdue's problem vis-a-vis the league title is that Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Illinois each only have one loss. Winning out would give UNL, M, and MSU each a second loss but they'd still need a lot of help. They'll get most of it because a lot of those teams still have to play each other but they need things to balance right to get everybody to three losses and if Purdue drops another game they'll need miracles.
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The other thing is as of now, the top 5 seemed to be sort of separating themselves.
The primary thing is winning the Big Ten title.
However, additionally, I could not care less about a conference tournament title, but I know I don't want the possibility of playing (a) an additional game on Thursday that can only hurt you; and (b) 4 games total.
At least one of those 5 top 10 KenPom teams is going to be in that situation
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The other thing is as of now, the top 5 seemed to be sort of separating themselves.
The primary thing is winning the Big Ten title.
However, additionally, I could not care less about a conference tournament title, but I know I don't want the possibility of playing (a) an additional game on Thursday that can only hurt you; and (b) 4 games total.
At least one of those 5 top 10 KenPom teams is going to be in that situation
I know that you know this but just a reminder for the group, the Big Ten Basketball Tournament structure changed again and we are back to including all of the league's teams. The tournament is at the United Center starting Tuesday, March 10 as follows:
Tuesday, March 10:
- #15 vs #18 at 730 on Peacock
- #16 vs #17 at 5pm on Peacock
Wednesday, March 11:
- #9 vs 16/17 at noon on Peacock
- #10 vs 15/18 at 630 on BTN
- #11 vs #14 at 9 on BTN
- #12 vs #13 at 230 on Peacock
Thursday, March 12:
- #5 vs 12/13 at 230 on BTN
- #6 vs 11/14 at 9 on BTN
- #7 vs 10/15/18 at 630 on BTN
- #8 vs 9/16/17 at noon on BTN
Friday, March 13:
- #1 vs 8/9/16/17 at noon on BTN
- #2 vs 7/10/15/18 at 630 on BTN
- #3 vs 6/11/14 at 9 on BTN
- #4 vs 5/12/13 at 230 on BTN
Saturday, March 14:
- 1/8/9/16/17 vs 4/5/12/13 at 1pm on CBS
- 2/7/10/15/18 vs 3/6/11/14 at 330 on CBS
Sunday, March 15:
- 1/8/9/16/17/4/5/12/13 vs 2/7/10/15/18/3/6/11/14 at 330 on CBS
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Personally, I think we should shorten up the Tournament by having the top-4 host as follows:
Tuesday, March 10:
- #15 vs #18 at #2
- #16 vs #17 at #1
Wednesday, March 11:
- #1 vs 16/17 at #1
- #2 vs 15/18 at #2
- #3 vs #14 at #3
- #4 vs #14 at #4
- #5 vs #12 at #4
- #6 vs #11 at #3
- #7 vs #10 at #2
- #8 vs #9 at #1
Thursday, March 12:
- #1/16/17 vs #8/9 at #1
- #2/15/18 vs #7/10 at #2
- #3/14 vs #6/11 at #3
- #4/14 vs #5/12 at #4
Friday, March 13:
- Travel day to a neutral site for the League's Final Four
Saturday, March 14:
- #1/16/17/8/9 vs #4/14/5/12 at the B1GF4 site
- #2/15/18/7/10 vs #3/14/6/11 at the B1GF4 site
Sunday, March 15:
- #1/16/17/8/9/4/14/5/12 vs #2/15/18/7/10/3/14/6/11 at the B1GF4 site
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I try not to overreact to streaks and these three were all challenging games but this is surprising. Purdue went into that UCLA game 17-1, #4 in the Nation, and looking like every bit of a #1 seed and since then:
- Lost at UCLA by 2, UCLA is 6-3 and this was a West Coast road game
- Lost at home to Illinois by 6
- Lost at Indiana by 5, Indiana is .500 even after the upset
This has definitely changed my perception of Purdue. I expected them to win each game and if they had dropped one, upsets happen. Dropping all three is more problematic. Purdue likely has no margin for error now if they want a share of the league title.
The good news is that Purdue has a couple weeks to get right. They visit Maryland on Sunday but Maryland is atrocious and then they host Oregon next Saturday which should be an easy win for them. After that, two weeks from yesterday they go to Nebraska then continue the road swing with a visit to Carver-Hawkeye on Valentine's Day.
Purdue's problem vis-a-vis the league title is that Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Illinois each only have one loss. Winning out would give UNL, M, and MSU each a second loss but they'd still need a lot of help. They'll get most of it because a lot of those teams still have to play each other but they need things to balance right to get everybody to three losses and if Purdue drops another game they'll need miracles.
Ultimately I think they've played themselves out of any chance at a share of the reg season title. I don't see them going 3-0 against the big teams in current form even though they get 2 at home. And if they continue playing like this, I don't trust they're going to avoid dropping another one elsewhere either.
The only chance IMHO is that there's something going on physically with Smith (who has definitely had some issues) or TKR (who people think might have a nagging back or hip injury). And that if those are cleared up, they'll be a different team.
If that's the case, though, I think they'd STILL be a very very long shot for a share of the reg season title. The hope would be that they get healthy before the BTT and NCAAT and make the noise where it truly matters.
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Would presently be Maryland-Oregon on a Tuesday afternoon in Chicago. Probably not a tough ticket
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Would presently be Maryland-Oregon on a Tuesday afternoon in Chicago. Probably not a tough ticket
And that is why I think we should change it as outlined above. You still wouldn't fill up the arena but I think you'd do better with:
- Maryland-Oregon on a Tuesday night in Ann Arbor with the winner playing Michigan the next night. At least a few Michigan students would show up to check out the opposition.
- Northwestern-Penn State on a Tuesday night in Lincoln with the winner playing Nebraska the next night. At least a few Nebraska students would show up to check out the opposition.
Note, I didn't check tiebreakers. I just used what you put as the 16-17 game and the other two of the bottom four became the 15-18 game and for the top-2 I'm just using the order in which they are listed by ESPN currently.
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And that is why I think we should change it as outlined above. You still wouldn't fill up the arena but I think you'd do better with:
- Maryland-Oregon on a Tuesday night in Ann Arbor with the winner playing Michigan the next night. At least a few Michigan students would show up to check out the opposition.
Michigan fans barely show up to see Michigan. Not a basketball school. Just play all conference championships and tournaments in Lincoln. Attendance would be unparalleled.
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it's true
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Also, I know we've sort of abandoned the Tiers, but if we still had them, I'd do (alphabetical by tier)...
1 - Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska
2 - Purdue
3 - Indiana, Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Ohio State
5 - USC, Washington
6 - Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
EDIT: Northwestern, UCLA
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Using those for the standings. Green means +1, Red means -1
- Nebraska (19-1) 29-1
- Michigan State (17-3) 27-4
- Illinois (17-3) 26-5
- Michigan (16-4) 26-5
- Purdue (15-5) 25-6
- UCLA (13-7) 21-10
- Wisconsin (12-8) 20-11
- Iowa (12-8) 22-9
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- Indiana (10-10) 19-12 (-2)
- USC (9-11) 20-11
- Washington (8-12) 16-15
- Minnesota (6-14) 13-18 (+2)
- Northwestern (5-15) 13-18
- Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
- Oregon (4-16) 11-23
- Maryland (2-18) 10-22
- Penn State (2-18) 11-20
I'll work with whether the +/-2s are worth changing
EDIT: UCLA is an easy one to move up; dropping Indiana keeps them -2, so they stay the same; moving Minnesota up keeps them +2, so they stay the same
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Tier picks for tonight...
Iowa d. USC
Wisconsin d. Minnesota
UCLA d. Oregon
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I swear to God, if Wisconsin fucks this up…
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I swear to God, if Wisconsin fucks this up…
They tried really hard but failed.
Poor Goophs.
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This is what I wrote but didn't get posted after turning it off with 8 minutes to go in the first half.
"Appears UW has decided to miss everything and take a dump on the floor on the offensive end. The USC game was bad but made intrinsic sense. This level of non-shot-making is kind of baffling."
I followed the score a bit before bed, and as they rallied, decided they were doing better without me watching.
This UW team is far from perfect and often isn't very good. But they are absolutely without a drop of give up.
I've said if they make the dance considering how some of the transfers worked out, I'll be happy. They'll need to take care of business and win a tossup along the way, and maybe sweat a bit on the bubble depending on how things fall, but that mark is well within reach.
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I hate that womens basketball and softball are pushed over soccer and volleyball, but my god, Purdues womens basketball attendance is brutal.
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well, their fans didn't want to watch that performance this evening
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I hate that womens basketball and softball are pushed over soccer and volleyball, but my god, Purdues womens basketball attendance is brutal.
I wonder if there would ever be a push to change the calendar on that front. At least soccer maybe.
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Also, this Michigan-Michigan State game tonight should be pretty decent. I have to miss a lot of it for a movie, but maybe I’ll catch the end.
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I'll try to watch.
Not sure who i should root for.... really don't like Blue
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This game kinda blows.
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Okay, it's gotten a lot closer.
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Okay, it's gotten a lot closer.
Impressive halftime adjustments by Izzo's squad.
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and it was Izzo's BDay?
damn!
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100% knew I'd forget, 100% glad I did.
I did see something that 5/5 MSU starters began their career at MSU, and 0/5 of UMs did.
I think MSU is going to remain very, very, very good, and probably avoid majors blips with this strategy. But I also think whichever school buys out of the portal the best that year, will always be better than them
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Updated for UM over MSU. Green means +1, Red means -1
- Nebraska (19-1) 29-1
- Illinois (17-3) 26-5
- Michigan (17-3) 27-4
- Michigan State (16-4) 26-5
- Purdue (15-5) 25-6
- UCLA (13-7) 21-10
- Wisconsin (12-8) 20-11
- Iowa (12-8) 22-9
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- Indiana (10-10) 19-12 (-2)
- USC (9-11) 20-11
- Washington (8-12) 16-15
- Minnesota (6-14) 13-18 (+2)
- Northwestern (5-15) 13-18
- Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
- Oregon (4-16) 11-23
- Maryland (2-18) 10-22
- Penn State (2-18) 11-20
1 - Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska
2 - Purdue
3 - Indiana, Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Ohio State
5 - USC, Washington
6 - Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
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I think Wisconsin will go down to OSU today.
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Tiers project all home winners today
Wisconsin d. Ohio State
UCLA d. Indiana
USC d. Rutgers
Northwestern d. Washington
And for tomorrow, Purdue and Iowa picking up road wins
Purdue d. Maryland
Penn State d. Minnesota
Nebraska d. Illinois
Iowa d. Oregon
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I think Wisconsin will go down to OSU today.
I wish.
This is a rare network game when I'm not otherwise engaged so I'm watching.
Badgers up 8 almost midway through the second half.
Buckeyes would be in a lot better shape if Mobley could stay out of foul trouble and on the court.
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The Buckeyes put the Mid in Midwest
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Buckeyes feel like they should be a bit better than they are. Like there's a lot of nice pieces, but they're more top-40 than edge of top-25.
Big win for UW. They've got 16 wins with Maryland later on and a trip to spiraling Oregon. The other seven games aren't easy, but if they can win even one, probably dancing. Win two or more, back in 20-win territory.
In the first half, a transfer who honestly has been a disappointment went off for 19 points. He didn't do much after halftime, but if he can just can open 3s, it's a big boon.
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OSU got the whistles today like they were at home. First half was ridiculous.
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OSU got the whistles today like they were at home. First half was ridiculous.
Wiscy was almost in the double bonus. Unthinkable.
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Like John Cooper said after taking over for Earle Bruce, we have too many slow white guys.
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Like John Cooper said after taking over for Earle Bruce, we have too many slow white guys.
The nonwhite guys ain't very fast either
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Indiana blew a 4 point lead with 9 seconds left in regulation, 10 point lead with 1:30 to go.
Now we are still tied 90-90 in 2OT.
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Wow, there will be no triple OT. Indiana pulls the upset, 98-97 in 2OT
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Indiana blew a 4 point lead with 9 seconds left in regulation, 10 point lead with 1:30 to go.
Now we are still tied 90-90 in 2OT.
I turned that off an only learned about 4 minutes ago it went to OT.
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(https://i.imgur.com/PYjqqbX.png)
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Wiscy was almost in the double bonus. Unthinkable.
OSU had only 5 fouls against them in the first half. Wisconsin should have been in the double bonus.
Thornton is a good flopper.
The only reason Wisconsin got into the double bonus in the 2nd half was OSU intentionally fouling while losing.
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This will not be easy at all. That USC loss could really hurt.
(https://i.imgur.com/9iwQ3JF.png)
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Updated for Indiana and Washington wins. Green means +1, Red means -1
- Nebraska (19-1) 29-1
- Illinois (17-3) 26-5
- Michigan (17-3) 27-4
- Michigan State (16-4) 26-5
- Purdue (15-5) 25-6
- UCLA (12-8) 20-11
- Washington (12-8) 20-11
- Iowa (11-9) 21-10
- Wisconsin (11-9) 19-12
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- Indiana (11-9) 20-11
- USC (9-11) 20-11
- Minnesota (6-14) 13-18
- Northwestern (4-16) 12-19
- Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
- Oregon (3-17) 10-24
- Maryland (2-18) 10-22
- Penn State (2-18) 11-20
1 - Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska
2 - Purdue
3 - Indiana, Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Ohio State, Washington
5 - USC
6 - Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
Moved Washington up, since they were +2
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This will not be easy at all. That USC loss could really hurt.
(https://i.imgur.com/9iwQ3JF.png)
Ehhh, they need three to feel really good about things, and two is maybe a bubble spot. Maryland should be a win. At Oregon is a road game, but also pretty doable.
And if you're a good team, you gotta not go 0-7 vs the rest. Lines for five of them, including Oregon, are 3.3 points or less in either direction. Ideally you don't go 1-4 in those, and if you do, don't deserve much. (If they want to just pop IU on the road and make us feel even better, would take it).
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6 of 9 on the road with some really good teams. Only 1 of 3 at home is a gimme.
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Maryland is an absolute mess.
I'm sure Nebraska fans haven't loved the last 15 years of football, but they've always been decent. This would be like adding Nebraska, and them going 2-10 every year
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Shoulda kept Turgeon.
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a few programs shoulda
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I'm just glad today wasn't their day to figure it all out.
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Every time Baylor and Alabama lose, it's good for people who are clinging to college sports
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Maryland is an absolute mess.
I'm sure Nebraska fans haven't loved the last 15 years of football, but they've always been decent. This would be like adding Nebraska, and them going 2-10 every year
It’s gonna be annoying if Buzz has them going in like a year or two.
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well, the Mayor didn't have the Huskers going this afternoon
maybe better when Mast is sick and out - started 0-8
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Updated for Illinois win. Green means +1, Red means -1
- Illinois (18-2) 27-4
- Nebraska (18-2) 28-2
- Michigan (17-3) 27-4
- Michigan State (16-4) 26-5
- Purdue (15-5) 25-6
- UCLA (12-8) 20-11
- Washington (12-8) 20-11
- Iowa (11-9) 21-10
- Wisconsin (11-9) 19-12
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- Indiana (11-9) 20-11
- USC (9-11) 20-11
- Minnesota (6-14) 13-18
- Northwestern (4-16) 12-19
- Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
- Oregon (3-17) 10-24
- Maryland (2-18) 10-22
- Penn State (2-18) 11-20
1 - Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska
2 - Purdue
3 - Indiana, Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Ohio State, Washington
5 - USC
6 - Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
Moved Washington up, since they were +2
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Was Oregon basketball supposed to be this bad this year? Blown out at home last night to Iowa while wearing Grateful Dead-inspired sneakers. Falling to 8-14 overall and 1-10 in conference. This after last year going 25-10 and garnering a tournament 5-seed.
The Ducks returned a large fraction of last season's production, but their two most important players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries all season. And getting blown out by 35 at Nebraska a few weeks ago got the conversation going on how bad the Ducks defense is; the Ducks are last in the Big Ten in Team Defensive Efficiency. And there's a lack of competitiveness, discipline, and the cohesive play that is otherwise characteristic of Dana Altman's past teams.
(https://i.imgur.com/jHCoWro.png)
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1 - Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska
2 - Purdue
3 - Indiana, Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Ohio State, Washington
5 - USC
6 - Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
Ohio State is now 14-7/6-5. If I'm reading your tiers right you have:
- at UMD, W
- vs M, L
- vs USC, W
- vs UVA (Nashville), L
- vs UW, W
- at MSU, L
- at Iowa, L
- vs PU, L
- at PSU, W
- vs IU, W
That gets them to 19-12/11-9.
Per Torvik, their remaining games from most likely win to most likely loss are:
- at UMD, 73%
- vs USC, 72%
- at PSU, 72%
- vs UW, 61%
- vs IU, 50%
- vs PU, 33%
- vs UVA (Nashville), 31%
- at Iowa, 20%
- vs M, 19%
- at MSU, 15%
He projects them to finish 18-13/10-10.
My best guess remains (if anyone has differing thoughts, please chime in):
- 20-11 or better is absolutely in regardless of BTT.
- 19-12 is almost certainly in but might fall out with a dreadful opening loss in the BTT and/or a strong bubble.
- 18-13 would likely require AT LEAST one BTT win.
- 17-14 would be out unless they went on an impressive run in the BTT.
- 16-15 or worse would be out unless they win the BTT to get the auto-bid.
The good news:
With four projected wins and six projected losses the Buckeyes have more chances for a positive upset than a negative one. Picking up an extra win improves things dramatically.
The bad news:
Three of the projected losses are more-or-less hopeless. The chances of Ohio State beating Michigan or pulling off an upset in Carver-Hawkeye or the Breslin Center are near zero. Conversely, none of the projected wins are complete gimmies. Maryland and Penn State have been awful but those games are on the road. USC, UW, and IU are games that the Buckeyes *should* win at home but they could certainly lose. Purdue at home and Virginia in Nashville would be surprising upsets if the Buckeyes managed to pull off a win in either of those.
What remains is a pretty narrow path for the Buckeyes. They more-or-less have to win the four easiest. That gets them squarely on the bubble and a win in one of the other six probably locks up a bid. If they lose one of the four easiest then the season-ending home game against IU becomes a must-win.
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- Illinois (18-2) 27-4
- Nebraska (18-2) 28-2
- Michigan (17-3) 27-4
- Michigan State (16-4) 26-5
- Purdue (15-5) 25-6
- UCLA (12-8) 20-11
- Washington (12-8) 20-11
- Iowa (11-9) 21-10
- Wisconsin (11-9) 19-12
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- Indiana (11-9) 20-11
- USC (9-11) 20-11
- Minnesota (6-14) 13-18
- Northwestern (4-16) 12-19
- Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
- Oregon (3-17) 10-24
- Maryland (2-18) 10-22
- Penn State (2-18) 11-20
Using the above, the BTT at the United Center in Chicago, IL would be:
Tuesday, March 10 (Peacock):
- #15 Rutgers vs #18 Penn State at 730
- #16 Oregon vs #17 Maryland at 5
Wednesday, March 11:
- #9 Wisconsin vs Ore/UMD, noon Peacock
- #10 Ohio State vs RU/PSU, 630 BTN
- #11 Indiana vs #14 Northwestern 9 BTN
- #12 USC vs #13 Minnesota 230 Peacock
Thursday, March 12 (BTN):
- #5 Purdue vs USC/MN 230
- #6 UCLA vs IU/NU 9
- #7 Washington vs tOSU/RU/PSU 630
- #8 Iowa vs UW/Ore/UMD noon
Friday, March 13 (BTN):
- #1 Illinois vs IA/UW/Ore/UMD noon
- #2 Nebraska vs UDub/tOSU/RU/PSU 630
- #3 Michigan vs UCLA/IU/NU 9
- #4 Michigan State vs PU/USC/MN 230
Saturday, March 14 (CBS):
- IL/IA/UW/Ore/UMD vs MSU/PU/USC/MN noon
- UNL/UDub/tOSU/RU/PSU vs M/UCLA/IU/NU 230
Sunday, March 15 (CBS):
- IL/IA/UW/Ore/UMD/MSU/PU/USC/MN vs UNL/UDub/tOSU/RU/PSU/M/UCLA/IU/NU 230
It is interesting how based on @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's projections there is basically zero drama in Chicago. The top-12 are each 19-12 or better and pretty much all safely in and the bottom six are all 13-18 or worse and basically hopeless so nobody goes to the BTT on the bubble and needing a win or two.
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Is Maryland worse than Syracuse?
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Using the above, the BTT at the United Center in Chicago, IL would be:
Tuesday, March 10 (Peacock):
- #15 Rutgers vs #18 Penn State at 730
- #16 Oregon vs #17 Maryland at 5
Wednesday, March 11:
- #9 Wisconsin vs Ore/UMD, noon Peacock
- #10 Ohio State vs RU/PSU, 630 BTN
- #11 Indiana vs #14 Northwestern 9 BTN
- #12 USC vs #13 Minnesota 230 Peacock
Thursday, March 12 (BTN):
- #5 Purdue vs USC/MN 230
- #6 UCLA vs IU/NU 9
- #7 Washington vs tOSU/RU/PSU 630
- #8 Iowa vs UW/Ore/UMD noon
Friday, March 13 (BTN):
- #1 Illinois vs IA/UW/Ore/UMD noon
- #2 Nebraska vs UDub/tOSU/RU/PSU 630
- #3 Michigan vs UCLA/IU/NU 9
- #4 Michigan State vs PU/USC/MN 230
Saturday, March 14 (CBS):
- IL/IA/UW/Ore/UMD vs MSU/PU/USC/MN noon
- UNL/UDub/tOSU/RU/PSU vs M/UCLA/IU/NU 230
Sunday, March 15 (CBS):
- IL/IA/UW/Ore/UMD/MSU/PU/USC/MN vs UNL/UDub/tOSU/RU/PSU/M/UCLA/IU/NU 230
It is interesting how based on @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's projections there is basically zero drama in Chicago. The top-12 are each 19-12 or better and pretty much all safely in and the bottom six are all 13-18 or worse and basically hopeless so nobody goes to the BTT on the bubble and needing a win or two.
FYI, I'm using the tiebreakers as best I can, so the standings are what the BTT seeds SHOULD be I believe
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Is Maryland worse than Syracuse?
They are both worse than each other. The fake schools that most of these recruits go to in Florida or California is killing NE HS hoops
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They are both worse than each other. The fake schools that most of these recruits go to in Florida or California is killing NE HS hoops
For a second, I thought you were saying they were the fake schools the kids were going to, and that made me laugh.
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Like IMG @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) ? Are there more schools like this in Florida?
I'm pretty sure Wisconsin has some too.
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IMG is at least semi-legit I believe. A lot of these "schools" just partner with a local private school and have their players take online courses there.
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IMG brags about academics but I honestly don't know all that much about that place. My school has essentially no shot at ever landing one of their kids so... They are on ignore I guess.
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MSU got Carson Cooper from there. But he was originally from Jackson, MI, and he was only on the IMG B team, and he came as a preferred walk on.
He's averaging 10.5 ppg and 7.3 rpg as a senior
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He just keeps doubling down on me wanting them to reboot Phil Hartman's unfrozen caveman lawyer, as unfrozen caveman basketball player. So either each team has the bad rim for a half. Or someone comes out at halftime and screws with one rim, and nobody in 30 years has noticed. Or, his team actually did better on the "bad" rim, and our modern day rims and math confuse him
https://twitter.com/E_Matasovsky57/status/2018701835113001413?s=20
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(https://i.imgur.com/3PiV0gR.png)
and his weakness is defense
not sure how he hangs around in the NBA
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NEWS: Sunday's game between No. 5 Nebraska and No. 9 Illinois was the most-watched college basketball game ever on FS1 🤯
The matchup drew a record 1.37 million viewers.
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Updated for USC win. Green means +1, Red means -1
- Illinois (18-2) 27-4
- Nebraska (18-2) 28-2
- Michigan (17-3) 27-4
- Michigan State (16-4) 26-5
- Purdue (15-5) 25-6
- UCLA (12-8) 20-11
- Washington (12-8) 20-11
- Iowa (11-9) 21-10
- Wisconsin (11-9) 19-12
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- USC (10-10) 21-10
- Indiana (10-10) 19-12
- Minnesota (6-14) 13-18
- Northwestern (4-16) 12-19
- Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
- Oregon (3-17) 10-24
- Maryland (2-18) 10-22
- Penn State (2-18) 11-20
1 - Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska
2 - Purdue
3 - Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Indiana, Ohio State, Washington
5 - USC
6 - Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
Moved Washington up, since they were +2
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He just keeps doubling down on me wanting them to reboot Phil Hartman's unfrozen caveman lawyer, as unfrozen caveman basketball player. So either each team has the bad rim for a half. Or someone comes out at halftime and screws with one rim, and nobody in 30 years has noticed. Or, his team actually did better on the "bad" rim, and our modern day rims and math confuse him
https://twitter.com/E_Matasovsky57/status/2018701835113001413?s=20
This feels like one of those things that should be very silly, but we live in an era that things get taken more seriously.
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Updated for Minnesota and Iowa wins. Green means +1, Red means -1
- Illinois (18-2) 27-4
- Nebraska (18-2) 28-2
- Michigan (17-3) 27-4
- Purdue (15-5) 25-6
- Michigan State (14-6) 24-7 (-2)
- Wisconsin (12-8) 20-11
- Iowa (12-8) 22-9
- UCLA (12-8) 20-11
- Washington (11-9) 19-12
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- Indiana (10-10) 19-12
- USC (10-10) 21-10
- Minnesota (7-13) 14-17
- Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
- Northwestern (4-16) 12-19
- Oregon (3-17) 10-24
- Maryland (2-18) 10-22
- Penn State (2-18) 11-20
1 - Illinois, Michigan, Nebraska
2 - Michigan State, Purdue
3 - Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Indiana, Ohio State, Washington
5 - Minnesota, USC
6 - Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
Even though it keeps them -2, have to drop MSU 1. Minnesota moving up changes them from +2 to even
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Minnesota's big upset over MSU probably isn't as big as it seemed. They were on a seven-game losing steak but:
- 2 losses were in OT (vs USC, @tOSU)
- 2 losses were by one possession (vs UW by 3, @PSU by 2)
- 1 loss was by 4 (@UW)
- 1 loss was by 10 (@IL)
- 1 loss was by 19 (vs UNL)
They are the poster child for woulda-coulda-shoulda. That seven game losing streak could have been 5-2 with just a couple more shots per game. I think they are better than their record.
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I don't know, I never call a road loss a bad loss, but that's a rough one
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Shoulda kept Turgeon.
Was reading last week Mark Turgeon, a native of Kansas City, has taken the UM–Kansas City basketball job (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/47797740/sources-kansas-city-hires-mark-turgeon-men-basketball-coach). Kansas City is one of a handful of schools who's never reached the NCAA Tournament.
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Was reading last week Mark Turgeon, a native of Kansas City, has taken the UM–Kansas City basketball job (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/47797740/sources-kansas-city-hires-mark-turgeon-men-basketball-coach). Kansas City is one of a handful of schools who's never reached the NCAA Tournament.
Well hopefully Juwan Howard won't threaten to kill him there
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I predict they will reach the NCAA Tournament soon
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MN is playing a very short bench they basically go 6 guys and a 7th plays a little
kind of impressive that they have won 3 tope 25 teams this season and lost several close games, some where foul trouble really hurt
here we are hoping eventually in the coming years Niko can put a very strong team on the court
FYI how funny is it that the Wisconsin media team misspelled Niko's name on his security badge? Seriously a Big Ten team disrespecting a visiting coach?
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I think Ben Johnson was a good coach, he just didnt have the money to retain his players. But that problem isnt going away. I think Medved is the type who can do more with less.
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I think Ben Johnson was a good coach, he just didnt have the money to retain his players. But that problem isnt going away. I think Medved is the type who can do more with less.
I always thought recruiting was his thing, and that was gonna be a hard pitch before NIL at Minnesota and a nightmare after.
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MN is playing a very short bench they basically go 6 guys and a 7th plays a little
kind of impressive that they have won 3 tope 25 teams this season and lost several close games, some where foul trouble really hurt
here we are hoping eventually in the coming years Niko can put a very strong team on the court
FYI how funny is it that the Wisconsin media team misspelled Niko's name on his security badge? Seriously a Big Ten team disrespecting a visiting coach?
I’ve always thought the depth thing can be a bit overrated, but they’re really testing it. And while a lot of those players are decent, they’re not the sort you can roll thin with.
I rather enjoyed watching them play. They have a certain feistiness and some guys that pop.
I don’t think it was a security badge. I thought it was the press conference placard. Struck me as a bit of a small-scale error, as that media staff is usually pretty professional.
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Buckeyes got a much needed road win!
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I’ve always thought the depth thing can be a bit overrated, but they’re really testing it. And while a lot of those players are decent, they’re not the sort you can roll thin with.
I rather enjoyed watching them play. They have a certain feistiness and some guys that pop.
I don’t think it was a security badge. I thought it was the press conference placard. Struck me as a bit of a small-scale error, as that media staff is usually pretty professional.
yeah the press badge
i am sure it was not done on purpose and Niko is not a common name. it struck me a little funny, but Nico/ Niko in the scale of things is not a huge thing and i bet it wasnt the first time it has happened in his life.
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I have a friend named Niko with a K.
She's very pretty.
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I think Ben Johnson was a good coach, he just didnt have the money to retain his players. But that problem isnt going away. I think Medved is the type who can do more with less.
Johnson was a great guy. i would not go as far as saying he was a good coach
the teams he coached just lacked a consistency that is needed to coach and especially in the big ten where there are great teams and great coaches
now I am not sure if it was the staff he surrounded himself with or his coaching, time will tell what kind of retention Niko has but it just seems a lot different watching them now.
seeing a passing game again is fresh and fans are noticing . the barn is getting full again and it can be a tough place to play for visitors
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I have a friend named Niko with a K.
She's very pretty.
lol
no ones pretty without pictures! maybe put her on the other thread with the Hotties!
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Minnesota and Iowa both made great hires for head coach. I expect both to contend in short order, so long as NIL is solid.
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It's official Bryce James, who has not yet taken the court for the University of Arizona this season, will redshirt (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/47820210/bryce-james-son-lakers-lebron-james-redshirt-freshman-season-arizona).
Also Bryce rumors pointing to a likely transfer to Duquesne, whose head coach, Dru Joyce, is a high school classmate and personal friend of his dad, Lebron.
The best thing Arizona has gotten out of Lebron's kid signing with Arizona are the cool sneaker Lebron wore as a nod to Bryce:
https://twitter.com/ComplexSneakers/status/2009836259733115341
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Devine Uguchukwu out for the season. We might not score 50 again.
Get ready for 12 minutes of the assistant coach's walk on son
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Devine Uguchukwu out for the season. We might not score 50 again.
Get ready for 12 minutes of the assistant coach's walk on son
Just play the other guys more? (Checking the offensive efficiency, that seems rough, but at least no walk-ons)
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Just play the other guys more? (Checking the offensive efficiency, that seems rough, but at least no walk-ons)
No ball handlers. Nobody even close
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nice road win by the Huskers after 2 straight losses
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Listening to the radio, the Purdue announcers said Loyer got away with a bad push off on the go ahead 3
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Listening to the radio, the Purdue announcers said Loyer got away with a bad push off on the go ahead 3
I'm doing some garage reconfiguration right now so I missed it. Either way Purdue survived a scare in what should have been a pretty easy win.
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Apparently they reviewed it, but only for a flagrant, because the shove was up high, and determined it wasn't flagrant worthy
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Purdue and MSU should play a home and home as a slump buster
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Didnt see it, but judging by national media reactions, Wisconsin got screwed at Indiana.
Notre Dame playing today? Seems like zebras doing some home cooking in Indiana
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Yes, once the game in Bloomington went to OT, the refs took over to the benefit of Indiana. Pretty much all of Indiana's late points Vs Wisconsin were FTs.
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Didnt see it, but judging by national media reactions, Wisconsin got screwed at Indiana.
Notre Dame playing today? Seems like zebras doing some home cooking in Indiana
Sort of. They called a charge which was pretty close, though the Wiscy guy went shoulder to chest and threw out his arm so it looked worse than it was. They called one on Wiscy at the end that at first seemed like a bad call, though on replay it was clearly a foul.
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Didnt see it, but judging by national media reactions, Wisconsin got screwed at Indiana.
Notre Dame playing today? Seems like zebras doing some home cooking in Indiana
It’s wasn’t quite that bad, but overall an Assumably Hall whistle. Which is what it is in a Big Ten road game.
Felt like the most one possession game possible. Like the badgers should be mostly annoyed they didn’t make one more play. But that’s also life.
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Every ref should just tell Underwood to stop recruiting Euro failures, just like Alabama should stop recruiting G League drop outs
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Keaton Wagler is really good though. I feel bad he has to play woth these floppers, led by a coach who put his career in the hands of Euro failures because he couldnt recruit
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My god Keaton Wagler in the Big Ten POTY
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he's pretty good
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he's pretty good
He's very good. Best player in the Big Ten
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MSU stuck their two freshman on Wagler the whole night. He is very good, but he forced stuff. Wound up 2-16 from the floor with 3 assists and 3 TOs. He got to the line 12 times, which is how he got to 16 points. Very efficient team, only 4 turnovers. But if you force the ball out of Wagler's hand, they have limited guys who can hurt you off the dribble.
I'm not there, because the data isn't there, but I almost think we drop Illinois down with MSU and Nebraska. I think Michigan is on their own tier, and the Wisconsin loss is a fluke
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The Badgers got screwed.
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Gard:
“I haven’t seen the second one, but the one there at the end, I have never seen anything like that. I mean, I don’t know. They are trying to foul, they actually fouled us three times coming up the floor and did not call that. Our offense was driving away from the basket.
So, I will get more clarification, but I have never seen that type of call before. But, I guess there is a first for everything.”
On if he felt the last few seconds were consistent with the rest of the game
“No. No. It is a hard game to ref, but that wasn’t a hard call.”
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This is only one example.
https://twitter.com/CBBcontent/status/2020217651662905493 (https://twitter.com/CBBcontent/status/2020217651662905493)
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the reason winning on the road is tough
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No ball handlers. Nobody even close
Bags, sand, etc.
(this is said with joking friendliness. Nice win)
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This is only one example.
https://twitter.com/CBBcontent/status/2020217651662905493 (https://twitter.com/CBBcontent/status/2020217651662905493)
That turned out to be a good call. Blackwell stepped on his foot. But the charge was questionable.
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That turned out to be a good call. Blackwell stepped on his foot. But the charge was questionable.
Before Blackwell stepped on his foot, Blackwell was tripped (no call), which caused the step on the foot.
It was not a good call. It was terrible.
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(https://i.imgur.com/CYBk6ov.png)
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The Badgers didn’t shoot a free throw until there were 12:40 left in the game.
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huskers got similar treatment in Ann Arbor (is a whore)
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It was a "house money game" but I wish the Buckeyes would at least have kept it close, they were actually closer in Ann Arbor a couple weeks ago.
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It was a "house money game" but I wish the Buckeyes would at least have kept it close, they were actually closer in Ann Arbor a couple weeks ago.
For the record I don't have any interest in post season rematch scenarios this year. :-X
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For the record I don't have any interest in post season rematch scenarios this year. :-X
LoL, I agree!
I actually thought about your usual quest for that when I was looking at possible BTT scenarios and I didn't bother to listen the rematch scenario because, yeah no.
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Updated for Maryland win. Green means +1, Red means -1
- Illinois (18-2) 27-4
- Nebraska (18-2) 28-2
- Michigan (17-3) 27-4
- Purdue (15-5) 25-6
- Michigan State (14-6) 24-7 (-2)
- Wisconsin (12-8) 20-11
- Iowa (12-8) 22-9
- UCLA (12-8) 20-11
- Washington (11-9) 19-12
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- Indiana (10-10) 19-12
- USC (10-10) 21-10
- Minnesota (6-14) 13-18
- Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
- Northwestern (4-16) 12-19
- Oregon (3-17) 10-24
- Maryland (3-17) 11-21
- Penn State (2-18) 11-20
1 - Illinois, Michigan, Nebraska
2 - Michigan State, Purdue
3 - Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Indiana, Ohio State, Washington
5 - Minnesota, USC
6 - Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
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Well, if Purdue has any hope of winning the Big Ten this year, tonight is probably the deciding factor. This has been a brutal stretch of games for them with 6 of 8 games on the road. Lose and they drop to 9-4 in the Big Ten, 3 games back from the lead and with losses to two teams ahead of them. Win out and they have a shot, but they would still need help with Illinois and Michigan ahead of them by 2 games.
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I'll be watching.
Huskers gotta protect home court.
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Well, if Purdue has any hope of winning the Big Ten this year, tonight is probably the deciding factor. This has been a brutal stretch of games for them with 6 of 8 games on the road. Lose and they drop to 9-4 in the Big Ten, 3 games back from the lead and with losses to two teams ahead of them. Win out and they have a shot, but they would still need help with Illinois and Michigan ahead of them by 2 games.
FWIW:
If Purdue were to win out they would finish 17-3. That would be ahead of all but UNL, IL, and M. As for those teams:
- Nebraska could do no better than 17-3
- The M/IL loser could do no better than 17-3
- The M/IL winner could do no better than 18-2
So Purdue would be no worse than one game behind the B1G Regular Season Champion but they would need the IL/M winner to drop a game somewhere along the line in order to claim a share of the league title.
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The way Purdue has been playing lately, they're not winning out IMHO.
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Bracketology:
According to Lunardi's latest (updated to include 2/9 games) the B1G has three bubble teams:
- UCLA is one of the last four byes
- USC is one of the last four byes
- tOSU is the first team out.
There are 10 B1G teams currently in:
- #1 Michigan
- #2 Nebraska, Illinois
- #3 Michigan State, Purdue
- #7 Iowa
- #9 Indiana, Wisconsin
- #10 USC, UCLA
Based on the past performance of those seeds, that would result in:
- 7 teams winning their opener (6.9872)
- 4 teams making the S16 (3.7628)
- 2 teams making the E8 (2.3013)
- 1 team making the F4 (1.0769)
- 1 team making the CG (0.5577)
- 0 teams winning the NC (0.2821)
Here is the data behind that in case you are interested:
(https://i.imgur.com/NRkW5gJ.png)How to read the above, using #1 seeds as the example:
- #1 seeds win their opener 98.72% of the time.
- #1 seeds make the S16 (R32 column) 84.62% of the time
- #1 seeds make the E8 (S16 column) 66.03% of the time
- #1 seeds make the F4 (E8 column) 40.38% of the time
- #1 seeds make the Final (F4 column) 25.64% of the time
- #1 seeds win the NC (NF column) 16.03% of the time
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Oops, I just noticed that I never updated the above to include the 2025 tournament results so I need to make that update.
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Oops, I just noticed that I never updated the above to include the 2025 tournament results so I need to make that update.
Updated to now include the 40 NCAA Tournaments since expansion to 64 (1985-2025 but no 2020):
The seeds as currently projected by Lunardi would result in:
- 7 teams winning their opener (7.000)
- 4 teams making the S16 (3.7688)
- 2 teams making the E8 (2.3188)
- 1 team making the F4 (1.0750)
- 1 team making the CG (0.5563)
- 0 teams winning the NC (0.2813)
Updated data (all 40 tournaments since expansion):
(https://i.imgur.com/mZKaaaj.png)
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might not change much
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might not change much
Yeah, it didn't. Only a marginal change. There is so much data from 39 tournaments that adding one more simply can't change the averages very much.
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(https://i.imgur.com/7g3Z75k.png)
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An MSU basketball podcast I listen to was interviewing a player's father, and they asked him the best Big Ten crowds. He said Purdue and Illinois are right there, but he thought Nebraska had the best environment
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Can anyone explain Wisconsin?
They now have road wins in both Ann Arbor (who was a whore) and Champagne-Urbana. Those, along with Nebraska's win in Champagne-Urbana are the three best wins all year.
That same Wisconsin team lost in Bloomington, lost AT HOME to USC, and got run out of the gym at both BYU and Nebraska.
It seems like "good Wisconsin" is a top-5 team nationally while "bad Wisconsin" isn't top-10 . . . in the B1G.
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They are very 3 point dependent. Gives them a very high ceiling,. amd low floor.
Combine that with the fact that Brad Underwood has loaded his roster up with one and done Euros, who are also very erratic
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(https://i.imgur.com/hv5BWDZ.jpeg)
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Can anyone explain Wisconsin?
can you explain 1st half Nebraska and 2nd half Nebraska?
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Pair of upsets last night. Green means +1, Red means -1
- Illinois (17-3) 26-5
- Michigan (17-3) 27-4
- Nebraska (17-3) 27-3
- Purdue (16-4) 26-5
- Michigan State (14-6) 24-7 (-2)
- Wisconsin (13-7) 21-10
- Iowa (12-8) 22-9
- UCLA (12-8) 20-11
- Washington (11-9) 19-12
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- Indiana (10-10) 19-12
- USC (10-10) 21-10
- Minnesota (6-14) 13-18
- Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
- Northwestern (4-16) 12-19
- Oregon (3-17) 10-24
- Maryland (3-17) 11-21
- Penn State (2-18) 11-20
1 - Illinois, Michigan, Nebraska
2 - Michigan State, Purdue
3 - Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Indiana, Ohio State, Washington
5 - Minnesota, USC
6 - Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
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Can anyone explain Wisconsin?
They now have road wins in both Ann Arbor (who was a whore) and Champagne-Urbana. Those, along with Nebraska's win in Champagne-Urbana are the three best wins all year.
That same Wisconsin team lost in Bloomington, lost AT HOME to USC, and got run out of the gym at both BYU and Nebraska.
It seems like "good Wisconsin" is a top-5 team nationally while "bad Wisconsin" isn't top-10 . . . in the B1G.
That was a fun game!
They’re a bit inconsistent and pretty shooting reliant. They also can fight like hell and keep turnovers down.
They got outshot by Illinois, but grabbed some timely turnovers, over achieved on the offensive glass, hit some key shots and benefited from a rough free-throw shooting night from the home team.
(I also think USC is better than people give them credit for. IU was just a good team at home that UW probably should’ve lost earlier. And they’ve just gotten on track much better than in the first half of the year, plus when Neb and BYU get going, it’s a problem)
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I went to a Queen tribute show last night. It was really good. Missed the game. Oh well.
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In theory Ohio State could lose tonight and still make the Tournament but in practice I see tonight's game for the Buckeyes as awfully close to a 'must win'.
The Buckeyes are currently 15-8/7-6 and host USC tonight as 7.5 point favorites. I see this as close to a must win because after this the Buckeyes have a five game stretch where 0-5 is a distinct possibility:
- vs #15 Virginia in Nashville on Saturday
- vs Wisconsin* 2/17
- at Michigan State 2/22
- at Iowa 2/25
- vs #13 Purdue 3/1
A loss tonight would create the first losing streak of the season for the Buckeyes (they lost at home to Michigan on Sunday) and that two-game losing streak could EASILY balloon to a seven game losing streak and a 15-13/7-10 record.
How I see it for the Buckeyes:
- They have to win tonight to get to 16-8/8-6
- If they can then win just one of those next five that gets them to either 17-12/9-9 or 17-12/8-10
- Win the last two (at PSU, vs IU) to finish either 19-12/11-9 or 19-12/10-10
*Wisconsin:
Per the above discussion I just don't know what to expect when the Badgers roll into Columbus on February 17. If they show up with the team that took down Michigan in Ann Arbor and Illinois in Champagne-Urbana then they'll probably run the Buckeyes out of the gym. Alternatively, if they show up with the team that got curb-stomped by BYU and Nebraska and lost at home to USC then Ohio State will probably run the Badgers out of the gym.
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In theory Ohio State could lose tonight and still make the Tournament but in practice I see tonight's game for the Buckeyes as awfully close to a 'must win'.
The Buckeyes are currently 15-8/7-6 and host USC tonight as 7.5 point favorites. I see this as close to a must win because after this the Buckeyes have a five game stretch where 0-5 is a distinct possibility:
- vs #15 Virginia in Nashville on Saturday
- vs Wisconsin* 2/17
- at Michigan State 2/22
- at Iowa 2/25
- vs #13 Purdue 3/1
A loss tonight would create the first losing streak of the season for the Buckeyes (they lost at home to Michigan on Sunday) and that two-game losing streak could EASILY balloon to a seven game losing streak and a 15-13/7-10 record.
How I see it for the Buckeyes:
- They have to win tonight to get to 16-8/8-6
- If they can then win just one of those next five that gets them to either 17-12/9-9 or 17-12/8-10
- Win the last two (at PSU, vs IU) to finish either 19-12/11-9 or 19-12/10-10
*Wisconsin:
Per the above discussion I just don't know what to expect when the Badgers roll into Columbus on February 17. If they show up with the team that took down Michigan in Ann Arbor and Illinois in Champagne-Urbana then they'll probably run the Buckeyes out of the gym. Alternatively, if they show up with the team that got curb-stomped by BYU and Nebraska and lost at home to USC then Ohio State will probably run the Badgers out of the gym.
The Nebraska BYU version seems pretty unlikely at this point. Not that they couldn’t get run out of the gym, but Ohio State would just have to play a really good offense, like those teams did.
Thats like when Holtmann teams had a ln in-season downturn, looking back to when they were good.
One key would be two, if you get Wisconsin down, to keep them there. I think they’ve trailed by double digits in almost every Big Ten game this year, other than Penn State and Ohio State? so getting that lead and pushing it would likely be key.
That trip to Columbus is statistically the hardest game in the next six for Wisconsin. Opportunity ahead.
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(https://i.imgur.com/hv5BWDZ.jpeg)
The three-loss teams all have hope but they are going to need to get really hot AND get some help.
Michigan is obviously in the driver's seat at 12-1. They have a two-game lead in the loss column but they also have to face three of the four 3-loss teams and the only remaining game among the three-loss teams is MSU at PU on 2/26. That is to say that of the top-5 teams, Michigan has distinctly the toughest remaining schedule.
League Title Race:
Michigan is 12-1/22-1. Their toughest remaining games are:
- at Purdue on 2/17
- at Illinois on 2/27
- at Iowa on 3/5
- vs MSU on 3/8
Nebraska is 10-3/21-3. They don't get a shot at Michigan so they need a lot of help but they probably have the easiest remaining schedule. They play Iowa twice and they have a West Coast road swing to USC and UCLA but their other remining games are against three of the worst teams in the league (NU, PSU, UMD).
Illinois is 11-3/20-5. They get Michigan at home and other than that the only challenge remaining is a west coast road swing to USC and UCLA. Their other three remaining games are IU at home, Oregon at home, and at Maryland.
Purdue is 10-3/20-4 and I'm listing them before MSU because they host MSU but Purdue's remaining schedule is tricky. They host Michigan (2/17) and Michigan State (2/26) and there are some definite let-down possibilities around those even if they win the big ones. They are in Iowa City this weekend and the Hawkeyes are good enough that the Boilermakers can't look ahead to the showdown with Michigan. Then they have a home game with Indiana tucked between the two Michigan schools and if they win all four of those the next game is in Columbus. Now my Buckeyes aren't a very good team but if Purdue comes in exhausted after pouring their energies into beating Iowa, Michigan, Indiana, and Michigan State in consecutive games that creates a very real possibility of an upset. Even if they get through all of that then win in Evanston they still finish the season at home against Wisconsin and we know what Wisconsin did on the road to Michigan and Illinois so that game is far from a given.
Michigan State is 10-3/20-4 but they have, IMHO, the toughest remaining schedule. Four of their seven remaining games are on the road and none of them are easy (UW on 2/13, PU on 2/26, IU on 3/1, and M on 3/8). You know it is rough when your easiest remaining road game is in Assembly Hall. Even their home games aren't THAT easy. They do have Rutgers (3/5) and they are terrible but the other two home games are UCLA and Ohio State. UCLA is pretty good and Ohio State is not terrible.
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One key would be two, if you get Wisconsin down, to keep them there. I think they’ve trailed by double digits in almost every Big Ten game this year, other than Penn State and Ohio State? so getting that lead and pushing it would likely be key.
I don't know about PSU but Wisconsin actually DID trail Ohio State by double-digits. I can understand your forgetting it because it was VERY brief and VERY early in the game and had no bearing on how the game played out:
The two teams started out cold and it was 4-2 Buckeyes almost four minutes into the game but then Ohio State got hot and went on an 11-2 run to open up a 15-4 lead that disappeared almost as quickly as it had appeared.
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I don't know about PSU but Wisconsin actually DID trail Ohio State by double-digits. I can understand your forgetting it because it was VERY brief and VERY early in the game and had no bearing on how the game played out:
The two teams started out cold and it was 4-2 Buckeyes almost four minutes into the game but then Ohio State got hot and went on an 11-2 run to open up a 15-4 lead that disappeared almost as quickly as it had appeared.
Ok. Then since the start of the calendar year, UW has trailed by double digits in eight of 11 games. They won five of those, with the losses being:
-Blowout at Purdue
-Rallied at IU, blew 4-point leads in last minute of regulation and OT to lose by 1
-Rallied vs USC To go up by 12 with about 12 to go, and lost by 2
The games where they didn’t trail were blowouts or Rutgers and PSU, plus building a big lead early on UCLA and holding onto it. Been quite a year.
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I've only read the recap of the Purdue @ Nebraska game.
But it sounds like "good Purdue" showed up for about 25 minutes, then became "bad Purdue" to allow Nebraska to decimate a massive lead and force OT, and then gritted out an OT road win. Purdue fell in love with the 3 based on early hot shooting, and finished 13-46 (28%). They got the Nebraska big into foul trouble and then didn't throw the ball in the paint. Out of 76 shots taken, only 15 of them came from the bigs (TKR/Cluff/Jacobsen).
That said, a win is a win, even if they followed an ugly home win vs Oregon with a Jekyll & Hyde road win at Nebraska.
I think Jekyll and Hyde is a good descriptor of this team, though. When they're clicking, they're insanely good. But they can go through stretches of bad basketball, uncharacteristic of a senior-dominated team of non-transfers that should have decent chemistry, that I can't explain.
All I can hope is that maybe some of the bad stretches were explained by injury. As I mentioned a while back, Braden seems to have been dealing with some leg issues and TKR with perhaps hip/back issues... And that they get enough time to be recovered by the BTT and NCAAT. Because at this point, going deep in those is pretty much the goal.
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I was curious about the concept of "dependence on the three" so I made up this table:
(https://i.imgur.com/QF9qfez.png)
As I see it, there are four clusters:
- UNL, IL, UW, and IU are heavily dependent on the 3 (38%+ of their points)
- UMD, MN, Ore, and PU are moderately dependent on the 3 (33-35.25% of points)
- IA, M, tOSU, UCLA, PSU, RU, and MSU are neutral (28.44-31.22% of points)
- UDub, NU, and USC apparently haven't been informed that long-range shots are worth an extra point.
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I was curious about the concept of "dependence on the three" so I made up this table:
(https://i.imgur.com/QF9qfez.png)
As I see it, there are four clusters:
- UNL, IL, UW, and IU are heavily dependent on the 3 (38%+ of their points)
- UMD, MN, Ore, and PU are moderately dependent on the 3 (33-35.25% of points)
- IA, M, tOSU, UCLA, PSU, RU, and MSU are neutral (28.44-31.22% of points)
- UDub, NU, and USC apparently haven't been informed that long-range shots are worth an extra point.
Agreed. And even though I highlighted it in my post about the Purdue / Northwestern game, I didn't mean to imply that Purdue is a 3-dependent team.
We're not as post-heavy as we were with Edey, but we still have two decent centers and a forward that basically only plays (scoring-wise) inside the arc.
And Purdue, for better or worse, is actually one of the few teams IMHO that is still taking a fair number of mid-range two-pointers, and NOT having that be a disadvantage. The analytics may not say it's a great shot, but that's only if your shooting percentage from that range is too low... I think Purdue takes those shots and makes enough of them to make it worthwhile. (Having strong offensive rebounding helps too lol.)
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I'm not a basketball expert, but that lack of reliance on the 3 is why I expect Michigan to make a deep tournament run--an off night shooting won't doom them. And MSU--also because Izzo wins in March.
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As for the Badgers, they seem equally likely to have a big upset over a 1- or 2-seed in the second round of the tourney, or to lose a head scratcher to their first round, 7-10-seed opponent. Who knows?
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They are very 3 point dependent. Gives them a very high ceiling,. amd low floor.
I've long believed this as well. It just makes sense to me that a team that is highly dependent upon the three will have high variability because on a good night they are going to light up the scoreboard and on a bad night they are going to struggle to score at all but . . . Does it check out?
Per my table above, do Nebraska, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana have higher variability than most? Do Washington, Northwestern, and USC have lower variability?
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Agreed. And even though I highlighted it in my post about the Purdue / Northwestern game, I didn't mean to imply that Purdue is a 3-dependent team.
We're not as post-heavy as we were with Edey, but we still have two decent centers and a forward that basically only plays (scoring-wise) inside the arc.
And Purdue, for better or worse, is actually one of the few teams IMHO that is still taking a fair number of mid-range two-pointers, and NOT having that be a disadvantage. The analytics may not say it's a great shot, but that's only if your shooting percentage from that range is too low... I think Purdue takes those shots and makes enough of them to make it worthwhile. (Having strong offensive rebounding helps too lol.)
Purdue is 12th nationally in far 2-point shooting. They’re the best team at the rim in the country, 26th in 3-point percentage. Plus they shoot 3s at an above average rate nationally, rarely turn it over and offensive rebound at a top-45 rate.
So they've got almost every base covered.
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it's a good thing that they did last night - got a little dicey in Lincoln at the end
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Purdue is 12th nationally in far 2-point shooting. They’re the best team at the rim in the country, 26th in 3-point percentage. Plus they shoot 3s at an above average rate nationally, rarely turn it over and offensive rebound at a top-45 rate.
So they've got almost every base covered.
Credit Painter and Braden Smith. I don't think this is how they expected to look, but Fletcher Loyer has been unplayable at times, and Kaufman-Redd has been below expectations. They've adjusted on the fly, and even if they aren't quite where we expected, they are pretty damn close considering how the presumed 2nd and 3rd best players on the team have looked.
If those 2 figure it out, watch out.
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I've long believed this as well. It just makes sense to me that a team that is highly dependent upon the three will have high variability because on a good night they are going to light up the scoreboard and on a bad night they are going to struggle to score at all but . . . Does it check out?
Per my table above, do Nebraska, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana have higher variability than most? Do Washington, Northwestern, and USC have lower variability?
The longer I watch how this sport works, the less I agree with this.
There's a big belief that a 5-for-30 day from 3 is always just around the corner, and it's true there are some games where you say "well, they missed a lot of open shots." But it probably oversells the idea that good 2-point shooting is more dependable.
The issue there is that 2-point shooting can also be off (how often do you see a game where a team just struggles rolling balls off the rim?) and it's enormously defense dependent. You can lean into 2-point shooting, but if the other team has size and physicality like MSU/Illinois/Michigan, you best have some real mooses inside with good touch, or you'll have a bad day from 2 (and you might just end up with meh shooters taking long 2s, making it worse).
Keeping turnovers down seems somewhat dependable. Offensive rebounding, hit and miss unless it's a real core principle. And getting to the line is one of those things that can evaporate with a tough whistle in March or a really good interior defense. So in some ways, if you don't have a decent diet of 3s, you're lowering your ceiling and lowering your floor.
There's also the factor that the question is as much about what the other team is doing as what you are. As a Wisconsin fan, I arrived when UW was still a team that wanted to bash inside a good bit, get to the line, using the talent they had. And in the postseason that got harder. And they often got upset, sometimes to a smaller team that just bombed them from 3. It turned out, even if you were chasing a more stable floor, it doesn't matter when the other team blasts out the ceiling (or if more physicality is allowed).
In some ways, it doesn't totally matter. Even if Michigan and Purdue are lower, they're still taking about 40 percent of their shots from 3, a super high number just a few years back. That's an average swing of about six shots per game. Maybe six more 2s make a big ole difference, but it feels like they might not?
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down goes USC
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Ohio State might be the least volatile team in the league. They have zero good wins and their only even arguably bad loss was at Washington. Their results have been as expected in almost every game.
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Look what's happening in Evanston.
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Look what's happening in Evanston.
You've obviously never heard of the rule that "you don't talk about the no-hitter until the game is actually over" and it's other similar variations.
Wisconsin understood the assignment. Northwestern apparently did not.
Bleepin useless nerds.
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Maryland and PSU pulled upsets last night. Green means +1, Red means -1
- Illinois (17-3) 26-5
- Michigan (17-3) 27-4
- Nebraska (17-3) 27-3
- Purdue (16-4) 26-5
- Michigan State (14-6) 24-7 (-2)
- Wisconsin (13-7) 21-10
- UCLA (12-8) 20-11
- Iowa (11-9) 21-10
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- Washington (10-10) 18-13
- Indiana (10-10) 19-12
- USC (10-10) 21-10
- Minnesota (6-14) 13-18
- Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
- Northwestern (4-16) 12-19
- Maryland (4-16) 12-20
- Oregon (3-17) 10-24
- Penn State (3-17) 12-19 (+2)
1 - Illinois, Michigan, Nebraska
2 - Michigan State, Purdue
3 - Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Indiana, Ohio State, Washington
5 - Minnesota, USC
6 - Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
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At the start of the week, I was plenty hyped for UW hosting MSU, in part because it was an important chance for helping the tournament resume. After th Illinois upset, it feels less important, and that in itself feels weird.
That said, hoping for a good game. This is a UW team that probably matches MSU’s size more than most (they have a weird big/small gap going). Hopefully they can play like they match that size.
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If Fears plays dirty, Brad Davison will be there to nut punch him.
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More on Ohio State's unusual lack of variability:
Per the NCAA, Ohio State is:
- 1-7 in Quad 1
- 4-1 in Quad 2
- 5-0 in Quad 3
- 6-0 in Quad 4
They are THISCLOSE to being 0-8 in Quad 1 and 5-0 in Quad 2, allow me to explain:
Ohio State's lonely Quad 1 win is their 86-82 win in Evanston back on December 6. That is BARELY a Quad 1 win in two ways:
- It was a close game so Ohio State could easily have lost and
- Northwestern is currently #73 and road games against the top-75 are Quad 1 so if NU drops more than a couple spots that ceases to be a Quad 1 win it has been in-and-out of Quad 1 status.
Ohio State's Quad 2 loss is the game that I'm sure Diebler would most like to have back. Ohio State led Pitt for most of the second half and after Pitt tied it up the Buckeyes took a 66-64 lead on a putback of a missed shot with just 00:03 on the clock. Pittsburgh made a 'hail mary' half-court shot at the buzzer to win 67-66. Pittsburgh is #125 and road games against 76-135 are Quad 2.
Ohio State's remaining games are almost all Quad 1 and it feels like they are going to need to win at least one of those Quad 1 games but maybe not, remaining games:
- 2/14 vs Virginia (Neutral in Nashville) - UVA is #18 and 1-50 neutral site are Quad 1
- 2/17 vs Wisconsin - UW is #37 and 31-75 at home are Quad 2
- 2/22 at Michigan State - MSU is #11 and 1-75 on the road are Quad 1
- 2/25 at Iowa - Iowa is #26 and 1-75 on the road are Quad 1
- 3/1 vs Purdue - PU is #10 and 1-30 at home are Quad 1
- 3/4 at Penn State - PSU is #117 and 76-135 on the road are Quad 2
- 3/7 vs Indiana - IU is #30 and 1-30 at home are Quad 1
So Ohio State has five Quad 1 and two Quad 2 games remaining. The Wisconsin game could move up to Quad 1 if UW moves up a few spots and the Indiana game could move down to Quad 2 if IU drops a spot.
They are going to end up being compared to teams that have more good wins but also more bad losses. I'm not sure how that shakes out.
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Ohio State has a good chance to get a quality win tomorrow Vs #15 Virginia. With a record of 21-3 and winners of 5 straight and 10 of their last 11, Virginia looks at risk for an upset. Why? Their 10-2 conference record is built off of the ACC's middle and lower thirds. The Cavaliers have yet to play Duke, Clemson, and already lost at home to North Carolina.
BTW, any reason why Ohio State playing an ACC team in the middle of their conference schedule?
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Ohio State has a good chance to get a quality win tomorrow Vs #15 Virginia. With a record of 21-3 and winners of 5 straight and 10 of their last 11, Virginia looks at risk for an upset. Why? Their 10-2 conference record is built off of the ACC's middle and lower thirds. The Cavaliers have yet to play Duke, Clemson, and already lost at home to North Carolina.
BTW, any reason why Ohio State playing an ACC team in the middle of their conference schedule?
Not sure there is any main reason. Michigan plays Duke next Saturday. I guess if you have an open date and people will pay you to play, you make it happen.
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BTW, any reason why Ohio State playing an ACC team in the middle of their conference schedule?
I guess if you have an open date and people will pay you to play, you make it happen.
Short answer: $
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Not sure there is any main reason. Michigan plays Duke next Saturday. I guess if you have an open date and people will pay you to play, you make it happen.
There’s a company that organizes and manages setting up some of the big nonconference one-off, and I guess they convinced Duke and Illinois, plus some other teams to do it last year. It was successful, so they’ll do it again.
Honestly, I’m here for it.
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Fears is such a PoS. I can't believe Izzo has a guy like that.
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Badgers go up big early and hold the big lead throughout.
MSU is so strange to watch on offense. They don't shoot 3s, love long 2s and don't really have a pure post guy. Per usual, they're good at hammering it at the rim, but they ran into some issues there and it was a long evening.
Reffing was odd in a way I think no one would've been happy with if it was closer. A lot of plays where one side or the other was throwing up their hands.
At OSU comes up next, and that's the hardest game until the finale. Lot of opportunity in the next five.
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At OSU comes up next, and that's the hardest game until the finale. Lot of opportunity in the next five.
Unless Ohio State manages to upset Virginia in Nashville tomorrow as @CatsbyAZ (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1532) thinks is possible, that game is humongous for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are about to embark on a brutal five-game stretch and, IMHO, they simply have to win at least one of them. If they lose to UVA tomorrow (5 point dogs) and Wisconsin on Tuesday then they'll have to steal a win in the Breslin Center, steal a win in Carver-Hawkeye, or knock off Purdue.
The Buckeyes are currently Lunardi's 3rd team out and if they go 0-fer in these five they'll be 18-13/8-10. At that point even winning the last two (@PSU, vsIU) would only put them at the outskirts of the bubble and they'd likely still need two or three wins in Chicago.
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Honestly, I’m here for it.
I kinda like it too. There is a conference solidarity angle because SoS is such a big deal in BB. We are all better off if tOSU knocks off UVA and M takes out Dook.
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yes sir
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Fears is such a PoS. I can't believe Izzo has a guy like that.
My pearls have never been more clutched. The 34 year old who cant get a job on Wisconsin should teach him how to adult
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Purdue seems to have righted the ship
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tOSU even at the half - GO BUCKS!!!
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bucks quit running offense - 13-2 run by the Cavs - damn it!
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tOSU even at the half - GO BUCKS!!!
They put up a good fight but just imploded right before and after the U8: Turnovers* on four consecutive possessions led to an 8-0 run for UVA that turned a six point lead into a two point deficit and Ohio State never looked comfortable after that.
*The insane part was that Ohio State only had three turnovers total prior to that.
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brutal, they shoulda had em
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Trying to remember when I was less enthused by this program. Probably Matta's last year? Just a collection of randos and Bruce Thornton. Next year we just get randos.
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The top rando is out.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HBJnfqwbIAA3kBY?format=jpg&name=small)
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I saw Bruce Thornton and the Randos before they were big.
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I was watching that end of the game thinking, Virginia is just giving Ohio State all of the chances. And Ohio State could take none of them.
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The Sandbagger within Me is imagining the buckeyes rallying on Tuesday and popping UW in the nose.
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(https://images.ctfassets.net/jd1mlth317j4/fSkUmtTZ0PgEZdoGgyadY/365946f64c76f2cc5fe8501bd24236d1/Shujin-Academy-VGM-Club_RandoCalrissian3_8Beats_1920x1440.jpg?fm=webp&w=640&q=80)
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Im not going to kill a 26 year old, on their third school, getting paid. But I also dont understand where that money is coming from. Everytime MSU reaches out, I decline the call. I assume there are boosters willing to play the game. We just got torched by a guy who graduated high school 7 years ago. And I assume there are MSU boosters mad that we dont have any 26 year olds on the roster and will adjust accordingly. But at that point, I might as well donate money to the Toledo Mud Hens
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Im not going to kill a 26 year old, on their third school, getting paid. But I also dont understand where that money is coming from. Everytime MSU reaches out, I decline the call. I assume there are boosters willing to play the game. We just got torched by a guy who graduated high school 7 years ago. And I assume there are MSU boosters mad that we dont have any 26 year olds on the roster and will adjust accordingly. But at that point, I might as well donate money to the Toledo Mud Hens
Hmmm, who is the 26-year-old?
Is the person calling you asking for sports donations? I somehow never got on those lists. So all my donor calls were for general funds and such. Suppose the people who want to buy players or in the olden days build locker rooms get that call, and thankfully I never qualified.
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Since the new AD was hired, yes, Ive started getting specific requests for athletic donations
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Hmmm, who is the 26-year-old?
Is the person calling you asking for sports donations? I somehow never got on those lists. So all my donor calls were for general funds and such. Suppose the people who want to buy players or in the olden days build locker rooms get that call, and thankfully I never qualified.
I don't think Boyd is 26, but he did graduate HS in 2019. He's probably 23/24. Got the Covid year back and also redshirted. It's all above board with him.
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Since the new AD was hired, yes, Ive started getting specific requests for athletic donations
That is annoying.
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I don't think Boyd is 26, but he did graduate HS in 2019. He's probably 23/24. Got the Covid year back and also redshirted. It's all above board with him.
It appears that he is 24. The prep school years are always tricky there.
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Since the new AD was hired, yes, Ive started getting specific requests for athletic donations
It has picked up a lot for me too, in the past couple of years. Now when I see a "608" area code I ignore it.
Happens a few times/week.
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But I also dont understand where that money is coming from.
...
I assume there are MSU boosters mad that we dont have any 26 year olds on the roster and will adjust accordingly.
So this left me a bit curious about process, and I went poking on the MSU roster, and here's the thing, Michigan State had the oldest player on the court on Friday and the most well-traveled. The difference was he hasn't been very good despite a somewhat similar transfer profile, albeit different positionally.
It gets funky to classify transfers at a certain point. Like Boyd was a nice and good player, but he wasn't an aces guy. And transfers are such a weird blend of decent-to-very good mid-major guys, decent power conference recruits who got squeezed out, guys who just leave for some reason and the like. Plus you have careerists who bounce around late, journeymen and people who are comically journeymen. And then some big guys just dud out so hard you don't really get it (the Freeman kid from Iowa and Hawkins from Illinois stand out).
And that all goes to say the contrast mentioned is less about approach, as MSU is already fine with an older guy and someone who bounces around, but the fact one guy had been maximized and others have not. (I suppose there's also a part of me that chafed a bit at the mild stretching of Boyd's profile, but that's a thing I carry over from another board, so sorry about that)
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I very much wish MSU would take zero of those guys
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Izzo probably agrees
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Izzo probably agrees
That's the problem. They all say that, but they need to win, so they all have to
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Ed Zachery
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Izzo probably agrees
He probably does. But he needed wings. And he got a guy who has played for six schools in six years, two of them junior colleges. He also took a third-year guy on his third school in three years, which also doesn’t seem great.
Boyd is a strange one becuase in this modern era, he is an unusual guy who played four consecutive seasons for the same school and head coach. So he manages to be a four year guy and a three schools in three years guy. The sport will throw some curveballs.
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The also both went to 3 high schools I believe
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Boyd went Don Bosco and then transferred to St. Mary for playing time. Then came a prep year (due to injury he was lightly recruited).
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I was watching that end of the game thinking, Virginia is just giving Ohio State all of the chances. And Ohio State could take none of them.
This, exactly.
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Boyd went Don Bosco and then transferred to St. Mary for playing time. Then came a prep year (due to injury he was lightly recruited).
And this is why the NFL/NBA will step in. There's no development anymore. They loved their free minor league. Now kids go to 3 high schools, do a prep school year, then play for multiple colleges chasing NIL paydays and PT.
The NBA already did it by eliminating jumping straight to the pros, because they wanted to protect themselves from kids who were 17 year old freaks, whose peers caught up to them. The next move is them being done with this.
College basketball is a tough fix, because most of these kids adults are not NBA talents. But the NFL, particularly with linemen, I think will try to figure something out
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And to reiterate, I don't blame the players
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The Sandbagger within Me is imagining the buckeyes rallying on Tuesday and popping UW in the nose.
I hope so but I don't think so. I think with the Mobley injury this team is out of gas ⛽️ and done.
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It's the Rando semifinals, winner advances to play the Michigan championship randos
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I hope so but I don't think so. I think with the Mobley injury this team is out of gas ⛽️ and done.
I would like that.
I’m wondering if UW does hit a poor shooting night at some point soon. They’ve been on a good run.
I also realized OSU has had a smattering of irritating wins against the Badgers, 2023 BTT, 2021, 2017 come to mind. OSU also killed off the worst UW team of the modern era early and delivered one of the best offensive days I’ve ever seen vs the Badgers.
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Probably the biggest game of the season tonight for the Boilers. Can they make a statement at home? Will Purdue's Big Ten hopes be extinguished tonight?
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And this is why the NFL/NBA will step in. There's no development anymore. They loved their free minor league. Now kids go to 3 high schools, do a prep school year, then play for multiple colleges chasing NIL paydays and PT.
The NBA already did it by eliminating jumping straight to the pros, because they wanted to protect themselves from kids who were 17 year old freaks, whose peers caught up to them. The next move is them being done with this.
College basketball is a tough fix, because most of these kids adults are not NBA talents. But the NFL, particularly with linemen, I think will try to figure something out
I always have a feeling the opposite is true. The cost/benefit of starting minor leagues is low, and you lose potential marketing boosts these players get. (Plus college is a good weed out system)
We saw the G League Ignite flame out. It didn’t produce many useful players. In those sports, there’s more value in real competition, and it’s hard to will that into being. For the most part, a lot of minor leagues are heavy on useful journeymen/fringe guys. That’s fine to have, but probably doesn’t change the dynamics of college sports.
Like, coaches will moan about underdeveloped linemen, but what’s the value of fixing that, really?
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I always have a feeling the opposite is true. The cost/benefit of starting minor leagues is low, and you lose potential marketing boosts these players get. (Plus college is a good weed out system)
We saw the G League Ignite flame out. It didn’t produce many useful players. In those sports, there’s more value in real competition, and it’s hard to will that into being. For the most part, a lot of minor leagues are heavy on useful journeymen/fringe guys. That’s fine to have, but probably doesn’t change the dynamics of college sports.
Like, coaches will moan about underdeveloped linemen, but what’s the value of fixing that, really?
No, I mean they will step in to fix the NCAA, so they don't lose their good, free farm system
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Tonight's games don't really clinch things mathematically but as a practical matter some things will be decided tonight.
Two games are relevant to the league title:
- Michigan(24-1/14-1) -2.5 at Purdue (21-4/11-3) and
- Nebraska (22-3/11-3) +1.5 at Iowa (18-7/8-6)
If Michigan and Iowa both win, the league title is all but mathematically locked up for the Wolverines. At that point the Wolverines would be two games up in the loss column on Illinois and at least three games up in the loss column on all other teams with just four games to go. Michigan also has a home game against Minnesota left on the schedule. Realistically the chances of the Wolverines starting 15-1 then somehow flaming out to finish 16-4 are statistically indistinguishable from zero so for all intents and purposes the Wolverines can lock up the league title tonight.
OTOH, if Purdue and Nebraska both win that puts Illinois, Purdue, and Nebraska only one game behind the Wolverines in the loss column. Michigan still has to go to Illinois (2/27) so that makes the league title race very interesting down the stretch.
According to Lunardi the B1G currently has three bubble teams (bubble here is defined as within +/-8 spots of the cut line and thus the bubble consists of the last four byes, the last four in, the first four out, and the next four out):
- USC - last bye
- UCLA - first play-in
- tOSU - second team out
USC isn't playing tonight but UCLA and Ohio State are so their games are impactful to the bubble status:
UCLA is at Michigan State as an 8.5 point dog. I have trouble imagining UCLA winning that game but MSU has lost three of their last four so maybe? Winning in East Lansing would go a long way toward locking up a bid for the Bruins.
Ohio State is a 1.5 point favorite at home over Wisconsin and, IMHO, the Buckeyes are cooked if they lose this. Mathematically the Buckeyes would still be alive with a loss but their next three are @MSU, @IA, vPU and they are coming off of an OOC loss to UVA over the weekend. If the Buckeyes lose this it likely spirals into a 5-game losing streak and Ohio State's record would drop to 16-13/8-10. Then even if they won their last two (@PSU, vIU) they'd still finish the regular season at 18-13/10-10 and probably needing a couple wins in Chicago.
The other side of things in those last two games is interesting as well. UW and MSU are each 10-4. If they both lose they drop into a tie with UCLA at 10-5 only a game ahead of tOSU and 1.5 games ahead of Iowa. If they both win they could potentially move into a tie with Purdue and Nebraska for third place in the league at 11-4.
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I suppose I "Should" root for Purdue tonight.............. and that's easy for me
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Of COURSE it's on fucking Peacock.
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Huskers/Hawks on BTN
just wish it started earlier
I like to eat by 7. I'm on the road - far behind enemy lines in Cedar Rapids, IA - sitting at the bar at BWWs from 7 till the end of the game around 10 is tough on an old guy - even if it is a great seat and view.
the tall drafts just flow way too well after some spicy wings and salty fried taters while watching hoops
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Of COURSE it's on fucking Peacock.
It's simulcast on the NBC Sports Network, which is possibly on your service of choice.
I am watching on YouTube TV at this very moment. Purdue isn't fully out, but Michigan has quite the lead.
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It's simulcast on the NBC Sports Network, which is possibly on your service of choice.
I am watching on YouTube TV at this very moment. Purdue isn't fully out, but Michigan has quite the lead.
Not available here on Hulu Live TV...
But given the score, it's probably for the best.
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It's simulcast on the NBC Sports Network, which is possibly on your service of choice.
I am watching on YouTube TV at this very moment. Purdue isn't fully out, but Michigan has quite the lead.
Yeah, they did a very bad job of promoting that. I literally learned it today. I have Peacock, but I'd rather not log into an app and be stuck there for the commercials. Which I guess is the point
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Yeah, they did a very bad job of promoting that. I literally learned it today. I have Peacock, but I'd rather not log into an app and be stuck there for the commercials. Which I guess is the point
I bet they are trying not to.
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Not available here on Hulu Live TV...
But given the score, it's probably for the best.
Might need a joint MSU/Purdue support group where we discuss how our rival got great at a sport they don't care about by making a great coaching hire, and committing a ton of funds, smartly, to the transfer portal
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Might need a joint MSU/Purdue support group where we discuss how our rival got great at a sport they don't care about by making a great coaching hire, and committing a ton of funds, smartly, to the transfer portal
Well I think you have to include Ohio State for being heavily connected to Dusty May and then deciding to go with Jake Diebler instead
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Well I think you have to include Ohio State for being heavily connected to Dusty May and then deciding to go with Jake Diebler instead
That's a separate OSU/IU fan support group
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OSU shooting well.
UW, out of sorts.
Bleh.
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Watched the end of Villanova beating Xavier in OT. Villanova is 21-5? The Big East is a mess. I think UConn is good, but that league is so far off what it was, I have a hard time knowing if any of those teams are good.
Even after that win, Villanova is #27 in KenPom, which is actually higher than I would have guessed.
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The LA schools are aggressively bad going east. I think UCLA and USC might lose by a combined 120 points in their 4 games in Michigan
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Wisconsin isn't going east very well tonight.
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Its weird that only college softball has a mercy rule. If it just one sport, baseball has arm issues, if its a safety thing. Softball pitchers can pitch forever. But you are also apt to get pissed off kids doing dangerous things
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Wisconsin isn't going east very well tonight.
As Ive said, they might have the widest gap between floor and ceiling of any Big Ten team I can ever recall. However you pick them to do in the tournament you will be wrong.
And you better pick them to the Elite 8 or to get upset in the first round, because those are the only outcomes for this team
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My most recent old man take, and MSU is as guilty as anyone, but I hate wearing your darks at home
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Even if Bennett Stirtz didnt play for his dad in HS, the announcers would say he did, and everyone would agree
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❗❗❗
The Sandbagger within Me is imagining the buckeyes rallying on Tuesday and popping UW in the nose.
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Look at me, being irritatingly wise.
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As Ive said, they might have the widest gap between floor and ceiling of any Big Ten team I can ever recall. However you pick them to do in the tournament you will be wrong.
And you better pick them to the Elite 8 or to get upset in the first round, because those are the only outcomes for this team
Would throw some credit to OSU there. Badgers played not so well and OSU was on, but when two sub-30 percent 3-point shooters bang home 7-for-11, we gotta give them some credit.
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Saw a great Journey tribute band last night. Maybe that belongs on the happy thread.
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Saw a great Journey tribute band last night. Maybe that belongs on the happy thread.
Where did you see them?
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Bar here in the Marina. Took the golf cart.
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Even if Bennett Stirtz didnt play for his dad in HS, the announcers would say he did, and everyone would agree
The minute load he plays are that of a coach’s favored son.
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Saw a great Journey tribute band last night. Maybe that belongs on the happy thread.
don't take it to the Big 12 board
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I’m wondering if UW does hit a poor shooting night at some point soon. They’ve been on a good run.
You sure called this! Wisconsin's shooting night was so bad that they only hit half of their free throws. Meanwhile, Ohio State did better than that not only at the line (68%) and from the field (54%) but also from behind the arc (52%).
When your opponent has a better percentage from three than you have from free, it just isn't your night.
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You sure called this! Wisconsin's shooting night was so bad that they only hit half of their free throws. Meanwhile, Ohio State did better than that not only at the line (68%) and from the field (54%) but also from behind the arc (52%).
When your opponent has a better percentage from three than you have from free, it just isn't your night.
OSU also, did a good job keeping them from putting up 3s in the first half. Underrated factor tire.
UW was surprisingly decent from 2, which I didn’t expect.
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Badgers were 1 for 8 from three in the first half, if I'm remembering correctly. Whether that's good defense or poor shooting, it put them in a big hole, one they weren't capable of climbing out of while OSU was in the groove shooting the 3. Poor performance from the Badgers--exactly what Badger fans (at least this one) expect after a few good wins in a row.
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If Michigan and Iowa both win, the league title is all but mathematically locked up for the Wolverines. At that point the Wolverines would be two games up in the loss column on Illinois and at least three games up in the loss column on all other teams with just four games to go. Michigan also has a home game against Minnesota left on the schedule. Realistically the chances of the Wolverines starting 15-1 then somehow flaming out to finish 16-4 are statistically indistinguishable from zero so for all intents and purposes the Wolverines can lock up the league title tonight.
This happened so, IMHO, you can pencil them in as league champions. Mathematically there is still a race but the chances are pretty slim for anyone not wearing Maize and Blue. Here are all the teams still mathematically in the race with their remaining games:
- 15-1 Michigan: vs Dook in DC 2/21, vs MN 2/24, @IL 2/27, @IA 3/5, vsMSU 3/8
- 12-3 Illinois: @USC 2/18, @UCLA 2/21, vsM 2/27, vsOre 3/3, @UMD 3/8
- 11-4 Purdue: vsIU 2/20, vsMSU 2/26, @tOSU 3/1, @NU 3/4, vsUW 3/7
- 11-4 Nebraska: vsPSU 2/21, vsUMD 2/25, @USC 2/28, @UCLA 3/3, vsIA 3/8
- 11-4 Michigan State: vstOSU 2/22, @PU, 2/26, @IU 3/1, vsRU 3/5, @M 3/8
- 10-5 Wisconsin: vsIA 2/22, @Ore 2/25, @UDub 2/28, vsUMD 3/4, @PU 3/7
Wisconsin is only alive for a share of the title but that would require them winning out AND Michigan losing out so I think we can more-or-less write off that possibility.
PU, UNL, and MSU are down 3.5 games with 4 (for M) or 5 (for them) to play. They can each only afford a combined total of one loss or win by Michigan. They are pretty much cooked. MSU has the toughest remaining slate with trips to both West Lafayette AND Ann Arbor left. Nebraska is, IMHO, the most likely to win out as they have three home games and a two-game road-trip to SoCal but they'd still need Michigan to lose at least three league games. Purdue is in the middle. Their schedule isn't as easy as Nebraska's but it isn't as tough as MSU's.
Illinois is the only one with a punchers chance to catch the Wolverines. Winning out would include handing the Wolverines their second league loss and put the Illini at 17-3 when the season ends so they'd only need Michigan to lose one other game. Note that Illinois and Michigan only play once this year so if the Illini do catch the Wolverines, the Illini will have the tiebreaker (unless Michigan somehow beats Illinois but loses all the rest of their games and they both get to 16-4 that way).
If the BTT started right now this is what I *THINK* the seeds would be:
- 15-1 Michigan
- 12-3 Illinois
- 11-4 Purdue (wins 3-way tie with UNL and MSU based on 1-0 H2H2H (beat UNL) pending upcoming game against MSU)
- 11-4 Nebraska (Second in 3-way tie with PU and MSU based on 1-1 H2H2H(beat MSU, lost to PU))
- 11-4 Michigan State (last in 3-way tie with PU and UNL based on 0-1 H2H2H (lost to UNL) pending upcoming game against PU
- 10-5 Wisconsin
- 9-6 Iowa (ties tOSU in 3-way tie with tOSU and UCLA with 1-0 H2H2H (beat UCLA) then beats UCLA based on win over UNL, pending game against tOSU)
- 9-6 Ohio State (ties IA in 3-way tie with IA and UCLA with 1-0 H2H2H (beat UCLA) then loses to UCLA based on record against UNL, pending game against IA)
- 9-6 UCLA (loses 3-way tie with IA and tOSU based on 0-2 H2H2H)
- 8-7 Indiana
- 7-7 USC
- 5-10 Washington (wins tie with MN based on H2H win)
- 5-10 Minnesota
- 4-11 Rutgers
- 3-12 Maryland
- 3-13 Northwestern
- 2-13 Oregon
- 2-14 Penn State (loses 3-way tie with NU and Ore based on H2H2H (lost to both)
Thus the BTT games at the United Center in Chicago, IL would be:
Tuesday, March 10, Peacock:
- #15 Maryland vs #18 Penn State, 730pm
- #16 Northwestern vs #17 Oregon, 5pm
Wednesday, March 11 BTN:
- #9 UCLA vs NU/ORE, noon Peacock
- #10 Indiana vs UMD/PSU, 630pm BTN
- #11 USC vs #14 Rutgers, 9pm BTN
- #12 Washington vs #13 Minnesota, 230pm Peacock
Thursday, March 12 BTN:
- #5 Michigan State vs USC/RU 630pm
- #6 Wisconsin vs USC/RU, 9pm
- #7 Iowa vs IU/UMD/PSU, 630pm
- #8 Ohio State vs UCLA/NU/ORE, noon
Friday, March 13 BTN:
- #1 Michigan vs tOSU/UCLA/NU/ORE, noon
- #2 Illinois vs IA/IU/UMD/PSU, 630
- #3 Purdue vs UW/USC/RU, 9pm
- #4 Nebraska vs MSU/USC/RU, 230pm
Saturday, March 14 CBS:
- M/tOSU/UCLA/NU/Ore vs UNL/MSU/USC/RU, 2pm
- IL/IA/IU/UMD/PSU vs PU/UW/USC/RU 430pm
Sunday, March 15 CBS:
- M/tOSU/UCLA/NU/Ore/UNL/MSU/USC/RU vs IL/IA/IU/UMD/PSU/PU/UW/USC/RU 330pm
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Friday, March 13 BTN:
- #1 Michigan vs tOSU/UCLA/NU/ORE, noon
@Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) , I know you didn't want it but there it is!
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Updated. Green means +1, Red means -1
- Michigan (18-2) 28-3
- Illinois (17-3) 26-5
- Purdue (16-4) 26-5
- Nebraska (15-5) 25-5
- Wisconsin (13-7) 21-10
- Michigan State (13-7) 23-8
- UCLA (13-7) 21-10
- Iowa (11-9) 21-10
- Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
- Indiana (11-9) 20-11
- USC (10-10) 21-10
- Washington (10-10) 18-13 (-2)
- Minnesota (7-13) 14-17
- Rutgers (5-15) 12-19
- Northwestern (4-16) 12-19
- Maryland (4-16) 12-20
- Oregon (2-18) 9-25
- Penn State (2-18) 11-20
1 - Illinois, Michigan
2 - Nebraska, Purdue
3 - Iowa, Michigan State, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Indiana, Ohio State, Washington
5 - Minnesota, USC
6 - Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
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Navy just clinched their first conference title in 26 years. Still need to win the tournament for their first NCAA birth in 28 years
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Of COURSE it's on fucking Peacock.
Tomorrow night is your overdue reprieve from Peacock - IU @ Purdue will broadcast on FOX
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Tomorrow night is your overdue reprieve from Peacock - IU @ Purdue will broadcast on FOX
Thanks. We owe those sumbitches some revenge from our first meeting this season, too.
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Thanks. We owe those sumbitches some revenge from our first meeting this season, too.
Plus, they are a football school
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According to Lunardi Ohio State's win over Wisconsin moved them from second team out to last bye so here is an updated list of where our league's teams project to go:
- #1 Michigan
- #2 Illinois, Purdue
- #4 Nebraska, Michigan State
- #7 Wisconsin
- #8 Iowa
- #9 Indiana
- #11: Ohio State, UCLA (play-in), USC (play-in)
Based on the results of the 40 Tournaments since expansion to 64 teams, those seeds would typically result in:
- 6.83 teams making the R32
- 3.76 teams making the S16
- 2.16 teams making the E8
- 1.14 teams making the F4
- 0.49 teams making the NCG
- 0.26 teams winning the NC
Bubble watch:
- Ohio State - last bye
- UCLA - second-to-last team in
- USC - last team in
Lunardi currently projects 11 B1G teams in the tournament but that is effectively the max. There are three bubble teams and all three are currently projected to get in and there are no other B1G teams with a remote chance of an at-large bid.
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Badgers lose a useful glue guy to a broken wrist. He’s been having a poor scoring season, but otherwise useful and key on defense.
Going to be interesting to see if one of the two lightly used reserves can grab a more prominent role or if they just make do with the other rotation guys.
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Carrington will get more minutes, I think.
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Dang, I just learned that OSU led the Big Ten in Final Fours up until UCLA joined. I never would have guessed.
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as if we needed another reason to wish UCLA wouldn't have been invited
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Curling came on yesterday, so I watched UCLA knock off the Illini in an exciting OT game.
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Worried about this Iowa game. Dislike improved Hawkeyes.
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Curling came on yesterday, so I watched UCLA knock off the Illini in an exciting OT game.
The two bubble teams from SoCal went in wildly different directions yesterday. UCLA really improved their status with an impressive home win over Illinois while USC's tournament hopes are on life support after an unexpected home loss to Oregon.
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This game really is Bruce Thornton and the Randos
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Ohio State has the first of three consecutive "house money" games. They'll probably go 0-3 and that won't hurt them much but a win in one of these would be fantastic!
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This game really is Bruce Thornton and the Randos
Current stats:
FG:
- 7-11 Thornton
- 5-16 rest of team
3's
- 1-3 Thornton
- 0-6 rest of team
Points:
- 16 Thornton
- 10 rest of team
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This game really is Bruce Thornton and the Randos
First thing I thought of
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Putting Wojcik, Teng and McCullough on the court together once you finally had momentum is certainly a choice
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Bynum, who just took a kick to the junk, feels like he’ll stabilize his game next year, and he’ll be a real headache.
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The U8 timeout is apparently Ohio State's kryptonite.
In multiple losses this year that is exactly when things went sideways.
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UW-Iowa was tight most of the way, with Iowa leading most of the first half and into the second, and then the Badgers getting a little lead and having to hold onto it for dear life as the Hawkeyes got it down to 3 a few times. Badgers finally pulled away at around the 6 minute mark of the second half.
Nick Boyd, the aged one, was one rebound from a 27-point triple double. Iowa is now good at defense, so most of the Fran seems to have been washed from the building.
Tricky pair of road games at Oregon and Washington upcoming for UW. Oregon is bad, but at home. Washington is better than their record, but if the Badgers can take those two and not barf all over themselves vs Maryland, would be looking at a decidedly solid regular season.
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The U8 timeout is apparently Ohio State's kryptonite.
In multiple losses this year that is exactly when things went sideways.
How Thornton still had legs to lead that charge in the last 90 seconds is beyond me.
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How Thornton still had legs to lead that charge in the last 90 seconds is beyond me.
I think that is exactly why they've had multiple games where they've kinda died right about at the U8. They have little-to-no bench and when it is "Thornton and the Randos" as @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=2269) calls it, he just runs out of gas by then. Mobley being out compounds this problem because he was generally our best scoring option outside of Thornton and without him there isn't much.
Just looking at ESPN's "Game Flow" thing:
at MSU on 2/22:
The game was either tied or close with Ohio State usually holding a slight lead until a 45-45 tie with just under 10 minutes to play. Then tOSU more-or-less collapsed in allowing an 18-8 run that give MSU a double-digit lead (their largest of the game) with about 1:30 to go.
vs UVA on 2/14:
Ohio State got a bucket (Thornton) at about 10:00 to go to take a 59-53 lead then didn't score for five full minutes. By the time they scored again it was to tie it up at 61 with about 5 minutes to play but tOSU never led again.
at M on 1/23:
Close game the whole way up through tOSU's last lead at 48-47 with just under 11 to play then tOSU stalled and M took off for a 15 point lead of 71-56 lead with just over 3 minutes to play.
at UDub on 1/11:
Ohio State was within 1 with just over 7 to play in what had been a close, back-and-forth game to that point but from there the Huskies ran away and assumed their largest lead (8) with 1:50 to go.
vs Nebraska on 1/5:
Although they trailed for almost the entire game, Ohio State had a three point lead at 53-50 with about 8 and a half minutes to go but only scored 5 points over the next ~6 minutes to fall behind 65-58.
That is half of Ohio State's losses.
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I understand that Dook is pretty good but,.... when did Notre Dame get so bad?
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I understand that Dook is pretty good but,.... when did Notre Dame get so bad?
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth
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I understand that Dook is pretty good but,.... when did Notre Dame get so bad?
They dropped off after 2017. Had one last little run with Brey, then let go. New coach has got zero traction.
Wonder if they don’t have enough NIL.
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The Catholic Church is famously poor
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just seems odd
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I think every team has decent football NIL, and if you get good coaching and good evals, you nail it.
But Michigan has very little basketball support. Their home games are dead. You would think Notre Dame and Michigan would be about equal in basketball. And maybe Michigan will screw up their mercenary roster next year and be bad. But it is weird that Michigan figured it out, and Notre Dame is this bad. They seem to be similarly situated as far as financial support, and how they value football and basketball
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As much as Id rather not give them credit, please stop referring to this as the Big Ten regular season championship. This is the Big Ten championship, the other is a postseason tournament.
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The Catholic Church is famously poor
Alas, that doesn’t mean they want to pay basketball players.
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I think every team has decent football NIL, and if you get good coaching and good evals, you nail it.
But Michigan has very little basketball support. Their home games are dead. You would think Notre Dame and Michigan would be about equal in basketball. And maybe Michigan will screw up their mercenary roster next year and be bad. But it is weird that Michigan figured it out, and Notre Dame is this bad. They seem to be similarly situated as far as financial support, and how they value football and basketball
I think basketball is a little more win now than other sports. Michigan hired a new coach and spent some money last year, and they were pretty good. So it's easier to open up the checkbooks this year. Conversely, OSU hired a new coach and spent some money on transfers last year too. But their transfers were awful and the team sucks, so this year they went shopping in the bargain bin.
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I think every team has decent football NIL, and if you get good coaching and good evals, you nail it.
But Michigan has very little basketball support. Their home games are dead. You would think Notre Dame and Michigan would be about equal in basketball. And maybe Michigan will screw up their mercenary roster next year and be bad. But it is weird that Michigan figured it out, and Notre Dame is this bad. They seem to be similarly situated as far as financial support, and how they value football and basketball
Michigan almost assuredly spent a ton on that roster. Probably in the upper echelon of the sport.
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Yeah, they definitely did. That's my point. Very little fan support, but deep pockets. How Michigan and Notre Dame are this far apart in terms of success I don't fully get
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Bubble watch:
- Ohio State - last bye
- UCLA - second-to-last team in
- USC - last team in
Lunardi currently projects 11 B1G teams in the tournament but that is effectively the max. There are three bubble teams and all three are currently projected to get in and there are no other B1G teams with a remote chance of an at-large bid.
Some parts of this don't make sense to me. Since then UCLA picked up a GREAT win over Illinois so they moved up to third-to-last bye. That is a jump of five spots for a great win. I think you could argue for more but it certainly isn't bad.
USC lost at home to a bad Oregon team and only dropped two spots from last in to second team out. It seems to me that should cause a bigger drop.
Ohio State lost on the road to MSU by 6 points. Lunardi has MSU as a #4 seed so I would think that a bubble team losing reasonably close to them ON THE ROAD wouldn't hurt much but somehow that dropped Ohio State five spots from last bye to first team out.
So USC losing at home to an Oregon team that is 3-13 in the league drops them two spots but Ohio State losing on the road to an MSU team that is 12-4 dropped the Buckeyes five spots. Huh?
Anyway, according to Lunardi here are the B1G teams on the bubble (w/in +/- 8 spots of the cut line):
- UCLA is the third-to-last bye
- Indiana is the last bye
- Ohio State is the first team out
- USC is the second team out.
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I think basketball is a little more win now than other sports. Michigan hired a new coach and spent some money last year, and they were pretty good. So it's easier to open up the checkbooks this year. Conversely, OSU hired a new coach and spent some money on transfers last year too. But their transfers were awful and the team sucks, so this year they went shopping in the bargain bin.
Last year the problem was pretty obviously that they did a terrible job directing their NIL. I have to assume that those 5* transfers from blue bloods were EXPENSIVE but as you said, they were awful.
Do you know what their spending was this year? I'm just trying to understand if the problem is that they aren't spending enough or that they aren't spending wisely.
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Last year the problem was pretty obviously that they did a terrible job directing their NIL. I have to assume that those 5* transfers from blue bloods were EXPENSIVE but as you said, they were awful.
Do you know what their spending was this year? I'm just trying to understand if the problem is that they aren't spending enough or that they aren't spending wisely.
I don't know what they spent, but I have to think the crop of Noel, Tilly, and Cupps were much cheaper than the previous crop. But I think part of that is just the nature of investment. Who is going to sign up to give money to the basketball program with the return being what it was? Especially when the football program is right there.
ND probably has similar problems. Michigan donors were in the opposite boat. Dusty May showed real return on investment. Sherrone Moore not so much.
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I don't know what they spent, but I have to think the crop of Noel, Tilly, and Cupps were much cheaper than the previous crop. But I think part of that is just the nature of investment. Who is going to sign up to give money to the basketball program with the return being what it was? Especially when the football program is right there.
ND probably has similar problems. Michigan donors were in the opposite boat. Dusty May showed real return on investment. Sherrone Moore not so much.
That is fair.
FWIW, Ohio State picked up a Q1 win last night! That is a little weird since they didn't play but here is how it happened: Northwestern won at Indiana and that win moved the Wildcats up into the top-75 which makes Ohio State's road win in Evanston back in December a Q1 win.
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How can MaximumSam stand to be so quiet about his undefeated Redhawks on here?
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Cut lines for the B1G Tournament:
The top-4 do not have to play until Friday, March 13. As of right now Purdue, Nebraska, and Michigan State are in a three-way tie for 3rd, 4th, and 5th place so the loser of that tie would have to play on Thursday. Additionally, Illinois is only 1/2 game ahead of them and Wisconsin is only a game behind them so all of those teams are in the mix.
The #5 though #8 seeds do not have to play until Thursday, March 12. As of right now Ohio State and Iowa are tied for 8th/9th so tonight's game between them in Iowa City (the only meeting of the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes this season) will probably decide it with the winner getting to rest until Thursday and the loser playing Wednesday.
The #9 through #14 seeds do not have to play until Wednesday, March 11. As of right now Maryland leads Rutgers and Northwestern by 1/2 game for the #14 seed. Maryland is 1-1/2 games behind #13 Minnesota and Washington so the Gophers and Huskies are probably safe. Rutgers and Northwestern, however, are only 1/2 game ahead of Oregon so all of the Terps, Gophers, Knights, Wildcats, and Ducks are in the mix here.
Penn State is 2.5 games out of 14th place so they are all but mathematically locked into playing on Tuesday.
Mathematically Michigan has clinched a top-4 seed because they can do no worse than a 4-way tie with Illinois, Nebraska, and the PU/MSU winner.
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How can MaximumSam stand to be so quiet about his undefeated Redhawks on here?
I am starting a petition to let Bruce Thornton transfer to Miami with immediate eligibility
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It is early but wow, Ohio State is on fire in Iowa City.
At the first timeout it is 14-2. Ohio State is 5-7 from the field including 4-4 from long range.
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It is early but wow, Ohio State is on fire in Iowa City.
At the first timeout it is 14-2. Ohio State is 5-7 from the field including 4-4 from long range.
Ugh.
They started that hot then went ice cold and gave up what is now a 16-0 run and counting.
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Glad I went to bed.
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Glad I went to bed.
Barf
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Maddening team.
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Ugh.
They started that hot then went ice cold and gave up what is now a 16-0 run and counting.
So Ohio State opened on a 14-2 run to take a 12 point lead into the first media timeout then proceeded to get outscored 35-9 over the rest of the first half. The second half was about even but Iowa's commanding lead was never in any serious jeopardy.
It is weird that Ohio State started THAT well then just did NOTHING for the rest of the first half. Iowa's 35-9 run gave them a 14 point lead at the half and that was the game.
Glad I went to bed.
Barf
Maddening team.
Being a Wisconsin fan this season has to feel like being bipolar. You are either celebrating tremendous wins or lamenting bad losses with not much in between.
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I've been to a few IU message boards and they are currently lamenting their yearly "are we in or not" debate for the tourney.
They have only 2 Q1 wins as of this moment (PU, @UCLA). Wisconsin needs to be at least under 30 in the NET for IU's win over them to move them up to a 3rd Q1 win.
Wisconsin was 32 yesterday but that loss to Oregon only dropped them 2 spots to 34 (which is a little surprising). It's probably going to come down to that last game @ Purdue whether they can pull it off.
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It's times like these that I'm glad I'm not a huge basketball fan. Good god, that's embarrassing. Don't care about the travel, a meaningful tournament team doesn't lose to Oregon. It's not just the bad losses (this is the worst), it's the manner of them. Nebraska destroying them, Purdue embarrassing them at the Kohl Center, BYU smacking them around, Ohio State not having to break a sweat in the second half...and then this.
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Very interesting and impactful games tonight and tomorrow:
- MSU +7.5 at Purdue 8pm tonight, Thursday February 26 on Peacock (really?)
- M -1.5 at Illinois 8pm tomorrow, Friday February 27 on FOX
MSU/PU goes a long way toward determining which of the top-5 does NOT get a double bye. Michigan has already locked up one of the four double-byes as they can do no worse than 16-4. The other three will likely go to three out of IL/PU/UNL/MSU as those teams each have four losses. That said, the loser of this game will thereby get their fifth loss and Illinois is a home dog tomorrow night so they could pick up their fifth loss then. Thus, Wisconsin (11-5) still has a plausible chance but it would probably require them to win out. Additionally, UCLA (11-6) and Iowa (10-7) are still mathematically in the race. Ohio State (9-8) could theoretically tie PU/MSU but they can't tie the winner so the Buckeyes and the nine teams behind them are all mathematically eliminated from earning a double-bye.
The winner of this game will remain in control of their own destiny vis-a-vis a double-bye and have a helpful potential tiebreaker in the H2H win.
Michigan has already clinched at least a share of the B1G title and the MSU/PU loser from Thursday night will be mathematically eliminated from the title race. If the Wolverines win in Champaign that will mathematically eliminate Illinois, Nebraska, and the MSU/PU winner thus clinching an outright title for Michigan.
If Illinois wins then they, Nebraska, and the PU/MSU winner will remain at least mathematically in the hunt for a share of the title but for any of them it would require that they win out AND that Michigan also lose their last two games. Michigan's remaining games after the trip to Illinois are:
- at Iowa on Thursday, March 5
- vs Michigan State on Sunday, March 8.
It is certainly unlikely but then again Carver-Hawkeye is a difficult venue to win in and MSU is a rival so it isn't altogether impossible.
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If When MSU loses tonight, they are done. Purdue still has a shot
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MSU and Purdue entering the chat of who knows
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If When MSU loses tonight, they are done. Purdue still has a shot
I see what you did there.
It worked!
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All B1G teams have now played 17 league games with three remaining. Each team has a game this weekend, a game next week, and a game next weekend, then we'll head to Chicago for the BTT. As of right now the seeds for the BTT would be:
- 16-1 Michigan
- 13-4 Nebraska (wins tie with MSU and IL based on 2-1 H2H2H)
- 13-4 Michigan State (second in tie with UNL and IL based on 1-1 H2H2H)
- 13-4 Illinois (last in tie with UNL and MSU based on 1-2 H2H2H)
- 12-5 Purdue
- 11-6 Wisconsin (wins tie with UCLA based on H2H win on 1/6)
- 11-6 UCLA
- 10-7 Iowa
- 9-8 Ohio State
- 8-9 Indiana
- 7-10 USC
- 6-11 Washington (wins tie with MN based on H2H win on 2/14)
- 6-11 Minnesota
- 4-13 Rutgers (first in tie with Ore, NU, and UMD based on 3-0 H2H2H2H)
- 4-13 Oregon (ties NU in four-way tie, beats NU based on record against UW)
- 4-13 Northwestern (ties OR in four-way tie, loses to Ore based on record against UW)
- 4-13 Maryland (last in tie with RU, OR, and NU based on 0-3 H2H2H2H)
- 2-15 Penn State
Thus, the match-ups at the United Center in Chicago would be:
Tuesday, March 10 (Peacock):
- #15 Oregon vs #18 Penn State, 7:30
- #16 Northwestern vs #17 Maryland, 5pm
Wednesday, March 11:
- #9 Ohio State vs NU/UMD, noon on Peacock
- #10 Indiana vs Ore/PSU, 630 on BTN
- #11 USC vs #14 Rutgers, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Washington vs #13 Minnesota, 230 on Peacock
Thursday, March 12 (BTN):
- #5 Purdue vs UDub/MN, 230
- #6 Wisconsin vs USC/RU, 9pm
- #7 UCLA vs IU/OR/PSU, 630
- #8 Iowa vs tOSU/NU/UMD, noon
Friday, March 13 (BTN):
- #1 Michigan vs IA/tOSU/NU/UMD, noon
- #2 Nebraska vs UCLA/IU/OR/PSU, 630
- #3 Michigan State vs UW/USC/RU, 9pm
- #4 Illinois vs PU/UDub/MN, 230
Saturday, March 14 (CBS):
- M/IA/tOSU/NU/UMD vs IL/PU/UDub/MN, 330
- UNL/UCLA/IU/OR/PSU vs MSU/UW/USC/RU 1pm
Sunday, March 15 (CBS):
- M/IA/tOSU/NU/UMD/IL/PU/UDub/MN vs UNL/UCLA/IU/OR/PSU/MSU/UW/USC/RU, 330
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NO WAY Purdue loses to the Buckeyes this weekend.
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I hope the badgers can pull things together and beat Washington. Still don’t have a good read on the Huskies. Their metrics are better than their record.
So dangerous to be sure.
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Thoughts on my projections?
(https://i.imgur.com/pZQU056.png)
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Thoughts on my projections?
(https://i.imgur.com/pZQU056.png)
I want this for my team and not UCLA.
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Iowa really coughing it on the road Vs Penn State, giving up a steady lead and losing 71-69. A costly loss if you're on the 'bubble' like the Hawkeyes are, dropping them to 20-9 and 10-8. What makes this worse is Iowa closing their schedule out Vs Michigan and @ Nebraska, two tough tests before the conference tournament.
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Badgers bounce back as Washington was low on bodies and low on offense.
Wisconsin offense also caught fire in the second half, especially Braeden Carrington. What an add he's been.
Next up is a bad Maryland team at home. You'd expect to win, but a B1G team is still a B1B team. That said, being expected to win 21 games ain't nothing, especially with how up and down this season has been.
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Badgers bounce back as Washington was low on bodies and low on offense.
Wisconsin offense also caught fire in the second half, especially Braeden Carrington. What an add he's been.
Next up is a bad Maryland team at home. You'd expect to win, but a B1G team is still a B1B team. That said, being expected to win 21 games ain't nothing, especially with how up and down this season has been.
Not keyed in on the Huskies but is Sprinkle going to be on the hot seat? They've spent some money have have nothing to show for it.
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Isnt this just Year 2?
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Isnt this just Year 2?
Yes, though that's like 8 in college basketball years
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Badgers bounce back as Washington was low on bodies and low on offense.
Wisconsin offense also caught fire in the second half, especially Braeden Carrington. What an add he's been.
Next up is a bad Maryland team at home. You'd expect to win, but a B1G team is still a B1B team. That said, being expected to win 21 games ain't nothing, especially with how up and down this season has been.
I've learned to not do that with this team.
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Not keyed in on the Huskies but is Sprinkle going to be on the hot seat? They've spent some money have have nothing to show for it.
They've been dinged up. Down a starting center, last night. The four-star freshman they had as an opening day starter had some bumps and was out last night. The 15 PPG USC guard transfers they got has only played 12 games. A bunch of their top guys are freshmen and sophomores (in part because some veteran transfers have been hurt).
If "on the hot seat" means "really needs to make the tournament next year" I think the answer is yes. But he should be fine this year. (His buyout is $13.26 million this year, $10.2 the year after and $6.97 the year after that)
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I've learned to not do that with this team.
That is true, kinda was with last year's team too. But if they lose, it would be as a nonsensically large favorite.
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NO WAY Purdue loses to the Buckeyes this weekend.
Randos are playing well today. Got decent seats. Surprising Purdue representation (~10%). Osu def benefitting from the home whistle. Purdue is only still in it because of their 3pt shooting.
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Painter got Diebler a job, and may have saved his job
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Diebler should try to only schedule Purdue
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NO WAY Purdue loses to the Buckeyes this weekend.
Well done @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) !
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Diebler should try to only schedule Purdue
The football/basketball mirror image here is interesting.
Purdue football is ALWAYS a threat to beat Ohio State no matter how much better Ohio State is.
Now apparently Ohio State basketball is always a threat to beat Purdue no matter how much better Purdue is.
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Wisconsin fans were chewing over BTT seeding, pointed out (I think this is right), coming into the day, if Wisconsin beat Maryland, it didn't matter if Purdue went 2-0 or 0-2 vs OSU. The last game between them would still likely be for the 5 seed.
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Wisconsin fans were chewing over BTT seeding, pointed out (I think this is right), coming into the day, if Wisconsin beat Maryland, it didn't matter if Purdue went 2-0 or 0-2 vs OSU. The last game between them would still likely be for the 5 seed.
I think this will probably end up being the case but there are some other factors. Illinois is only one game ahead of Purdue/Wisconsin so the Boilermakers and Badgers are still mathematically in the race for the #4 seed and the Cornhuskers and Spartans are only two games up so the PU/UW winner could mathematically tie for 2nd.
On the other side of things UCLA is only one game behind PU/UW so they are a factor and tOSU/IA are two games down so the PU/UW loser could mathematically end up tied with them.
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Did not want a pissed off Purdue team.
Thanks, OSU cockroaches.
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Was planning on saying "that's a wrap" re: Ohio State basketball 25/26, after presumably losing to Purdue. But the Buckeyes win, their next two games are certainly winnable to finish strong going into the conference tournament, and suddenly OSU is looking in MUCH BETTER shape for an overdue at-large bid.
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Was planning on saying "that's a wrap" re: Ohio State basketball 25/26, after presumably losing to Purdue. But the Buckeyes win, their next two games are certainly winnable to finish strong going into the conference tournament, and suddenly OSU is looking in MUCH BETTER shape for an overdue at-large bid.
I generally agree and I to was assuming a loss to Purdue but I wasn't completely ready to write off the season even with that presumed loss. They still could have won the last two to head into the B1G Tournament at 11-9/19-12 with at least a plausible chance of making the NCAA Tournament. That said, the win over Purdue helps immensely and they have a little bit of margin for error now.
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Updated projections heading into the last two games:
(https://i.imgur.com/3chPyUu.png)
That finish would result in the following BTT seeds:
- 19-1 Michigan
- 15-5 Nebraska (wins tie with MSU and IL based on 2-1 H2H2H)
- 15-5 Michigan State (2nd in tie with UNL and IL based on 1-1 H2H2H)
- 15-5 Illinois (last in tie with UNL and MSU based on 1-2 H2H2H)
- 14-6 Purdue
- 13-7 Wisconsin (wins tie with UCLA based on H2H win on 1/6)
- 13-7 UCLA
- 12-8 Ohio State
- 10-10 Iowa
- 9-11 Indiana
- 8-12 Washington (wins tie with MN based on H2H win on 2/14)
- 8-12 Minnesota
- 7-13 USC
- 6-14 Rutgers
- 5-15 Northwestern
- 4-16 Oregon (wins tie with UMD based on H2H win on 1/2)
- 4-16 Maryland
- 3-17 Penn State
That generates the following match-ups:
Tuesday, March 10 (Peacock):
- #15 Northwestern vs #18 Penn State 730
- #16 Oregon vs #17 Maryland 5pm
Wednesday, March 11:
- #9 Iowa vs Ore/UMD, noon (Peacock)
- #10 Indiana vs NU/PSU, 630 (BTN)
- #11 Washington vs #14 Rutgers 9pm (BTN)
- #12 Minnesota vs #13 USC 230 (Peacock)
Thursday, March 12 (BTN):
- #5 Purdue vs MN/USC, 230
- #6 Wisconsin vs UDub/RU 9pm
- #7 UCLA vs IU/NU/PSU 630
- #8 Ohio State vs IA/OR/UMD noon
Friday, March 13 (BTN):
- #1 Michigan vs tOSU/IA/OR/UMD noon
- #2 Nebraska vs UCLA/IU/NU/PSU 630
- #3 Michigan State vs UW/UDub/RU 9pm
- #4 Illinois vs PU/MN/USC 230
Saturday, March 14 (CBS):
- M/tOSU/IA/OR/UMD vs IL/PU/MN/USC 1pm
- UNL/UCLA/IU/NU/PSU vs MSU/UW/UDub/RU 330
Sunday, March 15 (CBS):
- M/tOSU/IA/OR/UMD/IL/PU/MN/USC vs UNL/UCLA/IU/NU/PSU/MSU/UW/UDub/RU 330
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The way I figure it is that Purdue is purposely losing games so that they get the 5 seed and get a game against the 12/13 seed (which they would presumably win), and thus guarantee that Braden Smith gets at least two BTT games so that he has a better chance of breaking the all-time assists record.
That's some 5-D chess there. ;)
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I assume it will be MSU-UW in the 3-6 game. Because they seemingly play each other every year in the BTT
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https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48077130/usc-leading-scorer-chad-baker-mazara-no-longer-program
WTF?
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https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48077130/usc-leading-scorer-chad-baker-mazara-no-longer-program
WTF?
If I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet, I wouldn't be more surprised than I am now.
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If I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet, I wouldn't be more surprised than I am now.
Sarcasm?
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Completely.
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I assume it will be MSU-UW in the 3-6 game. Because they seemingly play each other every year in the BTT
Oh, not that again
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2025 - Wisconsin d. MSU in SF
2022 - MSU d. Wisconsin in QF
2019 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
2018 - MSU d. Wisconsin in QF
2015 - Wisconsin d. MSU in F
2014 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
2012 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
2008 - Wisconsin d. MSU in SF
2007 - Wisconsin d. MSU in QF
2004 - Wisconsin d. MSU in SF
2000 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
1999 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
12 times in 26 tournaments. I actually would have guessed it was more often. And maybe that's to be expected because they've been the two most consistently good programs during the BTT era
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2025 - Wisconsin d. MSU in SF
2022 - MSU d. Wisconsin in QF
2019 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
2018 - MSU d. Wisconsin in QF
2015 - Wisconsin d. MSU in F
2014 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
2012 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
2008 - Wisconsin d. MSU in SF
2007 - Wisconsin d. MSU in QF
2004 - Wisconsin d. MSU in SF
2000 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
1999 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
12 times in 26 tournaments. I actually would have guessed it was more often. And maybe that's to be expected because they've been the two most consistently good programs during the BTT era
I feel like I have somewhat vivid memories off all of those. The 2012 game is the only one I don’t have much recollection of.
For some reason, this made me want to go back and look at the 2018 and 2022 games. The 2018 one was strange because UW was bad, but just stayed with a really good MSU team. In 2022, UW had delivered better results than its metrics and was staggering later. MSU wasn’t great, and I forgot how that one was close late.
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2025 - Wisconsin d. MSU in SF
2022 - MSU d. Wisconsin in QF
2019 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
2018 - MSU d. Wisconsin in QF
2015 - Wisconsin d. MSU in F
2014 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
2012 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
2008 - Wisconsin d. MSU in SF
2007 - Wisconsin d. MSU in QF
2004 - Wisconsin d. MSU in SF
2000 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
1999 - MSU d. Wisconsin in SF
12 times in 26 tournaments. I actually would have guessed it was more often. And maybe that's to be expected because they've been the two most consistently good programs during the BTT era
MSU beat UW 4 times that year, including the FF (MSU wins MNC).
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The BTT is a bit of a sore spot for Purdue fans... It often "seems" that our underperformance in the BTT actually exceeds our historic underperformance in March, relative to where we typically finish in the conference regular season standings.
I.e. I was wondering where Purdue might fit in with either MSU or Wisconsin as to whether we had a similar issue with eliminating each other... But then I looked it up and Purdue is actually below .500 in the BTT--which is crazy considering they've had a lot of years being one of the high seeds.
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Better than Indiana. Only Northwestern has a worse record among the 11 schools who have been in it the whole time.
Northwestern has only reached the weekend once, in 2017, where Wisconsin promptly blasted them by 30
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UW beat Purdue in the 2000 Elite 8 to get to MSU.
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UW beat Purdue in the 2000 Elite 8 to get to MSU.
Ahh, yes... My first and only [and hopefully forever "only"] experience with tear gas.
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Ahh, yes... My first and only [and hopefully forever "only"] experience with tear gas.
I want to hear this story.
FWIW: Mine was October 30, 1993. I was a freshman sitting in the student section at Ohio Stadium and Ohio State beat Penn State in the first league match between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions. This was MUCH more surprising at the time than it is in retrospect. At the time tOSU was coming off of about 15 years of being down (relatively, by Ohio State standards) and PSU had won a couple fairly recent NCs. We students thought we should tear down goal posts or somesuch to celebrate and the dumb ones (freshman) were at the front of the pack when the Columbus Police Department deployed their ginormous industrial tear gas sprayers at the crowd.
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geez, I don't think they've ever used tear gas in Lincoln for tearing down goal posts or court storming
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Ahh, yes... My first and only [and hopefully forever "only"] experience with tear gas.
The good stuff.
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I want to hear this story.
FWIW: Mine was October 30, 1993. I was a freshman sitting in the student section at Ohio Stadium and Ohio State beat Penn State in the first league match between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions. This was MUCH more surprising at the time than it is in retrospect. At the time tOSU was coming off of about 15 years of being down (relatively, by Ohio State standards) and PSU had won a couple fairly recent NCs. We students thought we should tear down goal posts or somesuch to celebrate and the dumb ones (freshman) were at the front of the pack when the Columbus Police Department deployed their ginormous industrial tear gas sprayers at the crowd.
Yeah, after that game there were a bunch of students amassing on the road in front of Cary Quad (one of the dorms) at Purdue... The usual stuff... Couch(es) lit on fire, people milling around. Not actually anything crazy. Myself and two others had walked down there from the fraternity to check it out.
There had been a similar gathering two days before in celebration after the Sweet 16 win. It seems West Lafayette PD had had enough of that.
So we see the riot police lining up down the street at a stop light. I remarked to my friends "well, I think we should head to the periphery of this" and we did. We see them start marching towards the crowd and then hear a couple repeated "thump" sounds of launching a big heavy projectile and see the canisters rolling into the crowd spewing gas. Then... "Uhh, I think it's time to leave" and we did.
So we weren't in the middle of it, and we weren't hit with it MUCH being on the periphery and leaving immediately. But we all got a little whiff here and there as we left, and it was... Unpleasant.
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Near annual “confidence” training: see, that gas mask really works. The chem guys loved to fill that little shed up so you *know* the mask and gear were doing there job, until they weren’t.
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The artist formerly known as IUPUI taking on Cleveland State in the first conference tourney game of the year.
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https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48077130/usc-leading-scorer-chad-baker-mazara-no-longer-program
WTF?
Father Time is undefeated. Probably wanted to spend time with his kids before they went off to college
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B1G Bracketology:
Lunardi updated this morning and here is where he projects the B1G teams:
- #1 Michigan
- #2 Michigan State, Illinois
- #3 Nebraska, Purdue
- #7 Wisconsin
- #9 Iowa
- #10 UCLA
- #11(play-ins) Indiana, Ohio State
Based on the performance of each seed in the 40 tournaments since expansion to 64 (1885-2025 no 2020) those seeds should accomplish:
- 6.47 first round wins
- 3.73 S16 berths
- 2.29 E8 berths
- 1.09 F4 berths
- 0.56 NCG berths
- 0.28 NCs
As for the bubble watch:
- UCLA has the second-to-last bye
- Ohio State has the third-to-last spot
- Indiana is the last team in
- USC is the fifth team out
Here is where the bubble teams stand and what they have left:
- 20-9/10-8 Iowa hosts Michigan this week and visits Nebraska this weekend. They aren't listed as a bubble team but their SoS is bad, they've lost four of their last six, and they'll be underdogs in both of their remaining regular season games. They have 20 wins already and they are #28 in the NET so they *SHOULD* be ok but if they lose out (including losing their BTT opener) they could be in trouble. That would put them at 20-12/10-10 and add another bad loss (the BTT opener would be against one of the league's bottom-feeders. That still probably gets them in and obviously any additional win (regular season or BTT) seals the deal but 20-12/10-10 with a weak (by B1G standards) SoS and a disastrous finish (2-7) would be close enough to be interesting.
- 19-10/11-7 UCLA hosts UNL this week and visits USC this weekend. IMHO, UCLA needs one more win to get to the tournament. If they lose these two then also lose their BTT opener they'd finish 11-9/19-13 and that still might be enough but it would be really close.
- 18-11/10-8 Ohio State visits Penn State this week and hosts Indiana this weekend. IMHO, tOSU needs two wins or three if they lose both remaining regular season games. That would get them to either 20-12/12-8, 21-12/11-9, or 21-13/10-10. I think any of those would get them in.
- 17-12/8-10 Indiana hosts Minnesota this week and visits Ohio State this weekend. IMHO, IU needs either two regular season wins, one regular season win and three BTT wins, or to at least make it to the B1GCG. That would get them to either 19-13/10-10 or 21-14/9-11 or 22-15/8-12. That last one would be close but probably in with that strong of a finish.
- 18-11/7-11 USC visits UDub this week and hosts UCLA this weekend. I think you can just about stick a fork in them. Their NET ranking is all the way down to #64, they've lost five straight, and their leading scorer suddenly and mysteriously left the program. They went undefeated OOC which is nice but their OOC schedule was atrocious so it doesn't say much. IMHO, they need three straight wins to have a good chance. That (and nothing else) would get them to 21-12/9-11.
IMHO, the top-6 in the league are locks even by @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's and my literal interpretation of the term "lock". Ie, they would get in even if they lost this week, lost again this weekend, got the worst possible BTT opponent, and lost their BTT opener.
Similarly, the bottom-7 (MN, UDub, RU, NU, OR, UMD, PSU) would need to win the BTT.
SoS rankings per KenPom:
- 5 Michigan
- 9 Purdue
- 10 Illinois
- 16 Maryland
- 18 Michigan State
- 20 Ohio State
- 24 Northwestern
- 25 Oregon
- 28 Wisconsin
- 33 Washington
- 35 USC
- 38 Indiana
- 42 UCLA
- 47 Rutgers
- 48 Penn State
- 57 Minnesota
- 65 Nebraska
- 68 Iowa
I completely understand the weak OOCs played by RU, PSU, MN, and UNL. Those programs typically don't have good teams so they scheduled easy wins, fine. Iowa should schedule better. UCLA and Indiana are inexcusable. They consider themselves to be blue bloods, ok schedule like it then.
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https://twitter.com/i/status/2028897813912846351
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https://twitter.com/i/status/2028897813912846351
14% of all senior high major scholarship players this season (that played for the same school the entire time) are going to graduate from Purdue. That's insane
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Purdue has 3; MSU has 2; OSU, UM, NW, Nebraska, and Oregon all have 1
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UW has one.
Isaac Gard | Men's Basketball | Wisconsin Badgers (https://uwbadgers.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/isaac-gard/14413)
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Some interesting games tonight particularly for teams on the bubble:
Minnesota +6.5 at Indiana 630 BTN:
IMHO, this is a must-win for the Hoosiers. They are already in a tenuous position and can't afford a bad loss. Losing at home to Minnesota would definitely be a bad loss.
Ohio State -7.5 at Penn State 730 Peacock:
Ohio State has a bit more breathing room than Indiana but losing at PSU would still be problematic. It would be a bad loss that would effectively negate the good win over Purdue. The Buckeyes could still make the tournament even with a loss here but the path is pretty narrow.
USC +6.5 at Washington 1030 BTN:
IMHO, USC needs this (and their regular season finale vs UCLA) to have any chance at an at-large bid.
Maryland +14.5 at Wisconsin 8 FS1:
Wisconsin is safely in and Maryland is hopeless so this is just about seeding for the Badgers. A strong finish would be nice for the Badgers because they currently project as a #7 seed and the S16 is a lot more attainable if they can get up to a #6 where they aren't playing one of the best teams in the nation in their second game.
Purdue -11.5 at Northwestern 830 BTN:
Purdue is safely in and Northwestern is hopeless so this is just about seeding for the Boilermakers. Two weeks ago the Boilermakers were 21-4/11-3 and seriously in the running for a #1 seed. They've now lost three of four so any talk of a #1 seed is done. None of the losses were individually all that bad but two (M/MSU) were at home and the third was to a bubble team (tOSU). Right now they project as a #3 seed. If their current slump continues they could slide to a #4 but if they finish strong they could get to a #2. That doesn't make much difference the first weekend but it makes a humongous difference in the S16 and beyond.
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UW has one.
Isaac Gard | Men's Basketball | Wisconsin Badgers (https://uwbadgers.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/isaac-gard/14413)
Scholarship players
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Purdue -11.5 at Northwestern 830 BTN:
Purdue is safely in and Northwestern is hopeless so this is just about seeding for the Boilermakers. Two weeks ago the Boilermakers were 21-4/11-3 and seriously in the running for a #1 seed. They've now lost three of four so any talk of a #1 seed is done. None of the losses were individually all that bad but two (M/MSU) were at home and the third was to a bubble team (tOSU). Right now they project as a #3 seed. If their current slump continues they could slide to a #4 but if they finish strong they could get to a #2. That doesn't make much difference the first weekend but it makes a humongous difference in the S16 and beyond.
I haven't been able to catch these games, but it just seems like Purdue is not right.
Normally I'd be hoping for at least a strong enough finish to not slip to a 4 seed (so you don't have to face a 1 in the S16), but the way this team is playing, it doesn't matter much.
I think their ceiling is much higher than their current play, which makes them incredibly dangerous no matter who they face in the NCAAT, but I feel like this team is also the type that wouldn't surprise me to see them get upset in the first weekend.
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Scholarship players
He's on scholarship, but not for hoops.
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I haven't been able to catch these games, but it just seems like Purdue is not right.
Normally I'd be hoping for at least a strong enough finish to not slip to a 4 seed (so you don't have to face a 1 in the S16), but the way this team is playing, it doesn't matter much.
I think their ceiling is much higher than their current play, which makes them incredibly dangerous no matter who they face in the NCAAT, but I feel like this team is also the type that wouldn't surprise me to see them get upset in the first weekend.
Putting some data to it:
Winning the opener:
- #2 seeds win 93.13% of the time, 149-11
- #3 seeds win 85.63% of the time, 137-23
- #4 seeds win 79.38% of the time, 127-33
Who you face in the second round:
- #2 seeds play #7 62.25% of the time and #10 the other 38.75%
- #3 seeds play #6 61.25% of the time and #11 the other 38.75%
- #4 seeds play #5 64.38% of the time and #12 the other 35.63%
How you fare in the second round:
- #2 seeds who make the second round win 68.5% of the time, 102-47
- #3 seeds who make the second round win 61.3% of the time, 84-53
- #4 seeds who make the second round win 60.6% of the time, 77-50
Cumulatively:
- #2 seeds make the S16 63.75% of the time, 102 of 160
- #3 seeds make the S16 52.5% of the time, 84 of 160
- #4 seeds make the S16 48.13% of the time, 77 of 160
Who you face in the S16:
- #2 seeds play #3 52.5% of the time, #6 29.38% of the time, #11 16.88% of the time and #14 1.25%
- #3 seeds play #2 63.75% of the time, #7 18.13% of the time, #10 15.63% of the time, and #15 2.5%
- #4 seeds play #1 85% of the time, #8 10%, and #9 5%
How you fare in the S16:
- #2 seeds who make the S16 win 70.6% of the time, 72-30
- #3 seeds who make the S16 win 48.8% of the time, 41-43
- #4 seeds who make the S16 win 32.5% of the time, 25-52
Cumulatively:
- #2 seeds make the E8 45% of the time, 72 of 160
- #3 seeds make the E8 25.63% of the time, 41 of 160
- #4 seeds make the E8 15.63% of the time, 25 of 160
Who you face in the E8:
- #2/3 seeds face #1 66.88% of the time, #4 15.63%, #5 7.5%, #8 5.63%, #9 3.13%, and #12 1.25%.
- #4 seeds face #2 45% of the time, #3 25.63%, #6 10.63%, #7 6.25%, #10 6.63%, #11 6.25%, and #15 0.63%.
How you fare in the E8:
- #2 seeds who make the E8 win 43.1% of the time, 31-41
- #3 seeds who make the E8 win 41.5% of the time, 17-24
- #4 seeds who make the E8 win 60% of the time, 15-10.
Cumulatively:
- #2 seeds make the F4 19.38% of the time, 31 of 160
- #3 seeds make the F4 10.63% of the time, 17 of 160
- #4 seeds make the F4 9.38% of the time, 15 of 160
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(https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTZjMDliOTUyMmpjemVhY2x2NnduMXpvOWpoNzR0Mnp2ajZ2czNwOGh3Nzd3b3F4ciZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n/13EvYJUSzB69Yk/200.gif)
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https://twitter.com/EvanMiya/status/2029247912924922352?s=20
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But seriously, I think this is a team that the volatility could make them an odds-defying team--either direction.
When they're playing well, I think they can take down anyone in the country. Maybe Alabama (currently #16) isn't quite as good as they were billed when Purdue took them down on their own floor, but that was a non-con true road game and a big win. And Purdue absolutely blew the doors off currently #10 Texas Tech. When they're not playing well, I'm not going to say they can lose to "anybody"... But I'd say they can certainly lose to any at-large tournament team, and a few of the tallest midgets.
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Tonight is the type of game Wisconsin loses and then goes on to win at Purdue.
:91:
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Tonight is the type of game Wisconsin loses and then goes on to win at Purdue.
:91:
I dislike this making me think about the end of 2021-22.
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But seriously, I think this is a team that the volatility could make them an odds-defying team--either direction.
When they're playing well, I think they can take down anyone in the country. Maybe Alabama (currently #16) isn't quite as good as they were billed when Purdue took them down on their own floor, but that was a non-con true road game and a big win. And Purdue absolutely blew the doors off currently #10 Texas Tech. When they're not playing well, I'm not going to say they can lose to "anybody"... But I'd say they can certainly lose to any at-large tournament team, and a few of the tallest midgets.
I think that is fair. Ohio State isn't "anybody", ie Purdue didn't lose to Penn State but the Buckeyes are a borderline NCAAT team that, if they get in, will be something like a #11 seed so yeah they are the type of team that Purdue could be looking at in the first or second round (seeing tOSU as representative of something like 10-13 seeds and thus PU's opponent in the 1st round if PU draws #4 seed or second if PU draws a #2 or #3 seed). I also agree on the other end, PU was #1 earlier this season for a reason. When they are clicking they can play with anybody so yeah, a REALLY tough team to pick in your bracket because they aren't all that unlikely to lose the first weekend or to make the F4.
Looking at my team the PU game should probably be viewed as an anomaly but even ignoring that, they have been THISCLOSE to a slew of other major wins:
- They were within one possession of Illinois with just over a minute to play.
- They lost to UNC by a single point on a neutral court in a game they had all but won, grr.
- They lost to UNL by a single (long range) bucket.
- They were tied with Michigan in Ann Arbor (who was a whore) with just under nine minutes to go.
- They were up six on UVA on a neutral court with just over 10 minutes to play then proceeded to score two points over the next nine-and-a-half minutes and they were still within two points with less than 30 seconds to go.
- They led MSU in East Lansing with just over 10 minutes to play and were still within two points with six-and-a-half. Then they fell down by 10 but put together a furious rally in the last 90 seconds to make it a one possession game late.
I feel like as long as my team stays off the 7-10 lines they have a legitimate shot at the S16. I'm not saying it is likely, just that they have shown that they can play with teams up to about #3 seeds. They were competitive with Michigan (assumed #1 seed) for about 32 minutes (in AA no less) but I think any of the #1 seeds and probably also the #2 seeds will just wear them down even if they play well.
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https://twitter.com/EvanMiya/status/2029247912924922352?s=20
I really like this graph because in the NIL/portal era the coach isn't as responsible for roster quality as he used to be. If you are spending a lot and the coach just isn't spending it wisely yeah that is on him but if you aren't spending major NIL then you can't blame the coach for not having a Championship caliber squad.
So in the B1G (eyeballing it) by roster quality:
- Purdue - on the low end of expected outcome
- Michigan - overachieved
- Illinois - on the high end of expected outcome
- Ohio State - slightly underachieved
- UCLA - slightly underachieved
- Oregon - Ewww
- Washington - At least they aren't Oregon!
- Michigan State - overachieved
- Iowa - within the expected range
- Wisconsin - at the high end of expected outcome
- Indiana - within the expected range
- Nebraska - overachieved
- Maryland - slightly underachieved
- Minnesota - within the expected range
- Northwestern - within the expected range
- Rutgers - within the expected range
- USC - overachieved
- Penn State - within the expected range
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Bloody Peacock.
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Bloody Peacock.
I listened to part of the first half on the radio and apparently we are missing a heck of a show! Buckeyes more than doubling up Penn State, 45-21 at the break.
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KenPom says Purdue ORtg is 2 nationally.
They have 25 points at the half, against the team ranked 86th nationally in DRtg.
This team is broken.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCXALoqCivU
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KenPom says Purdue ORtg is 2 nationally.
They have 25 points at the half, against the team ranked 86th nationally in DRtg.
This team is broken.
As a fan of a team whose best win by far is over Purdue, I really would like them not to lose to Northwestern.
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Tonight is the type of game Wisconsin loses and then goes on to win at Purdue.
:91:
I see what you did there!
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Purdue pulls that one out by the skin of their teeth...
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Purdue pulls that one out by the skin of their teeth...
At least they’ll have a chance for a get right game against an up and down Wisconsin that might be down a starting center
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At least they’ll have a chance for a get right game against an up and down Wisconsin that might be down a starting center
What the latest on this?
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What the latest on this?
Seemed like he rolled his ankle, but probably avoided any kind of break or anything.
I’m assuming it’ll settle down Soon enough until someone announces otherwise.
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This was a great moment.
https://twitter.com/ZachHeilprin/status/2029390613708165457 (https://twitter.com/ZachHeilprin/status/2029390613708165457)
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Braden Smith currently sits at 1,020 career assists, 56 behind Bobby Hurley at 1,076. He's currently 4th on the all-time list, but getting an additional 19 would move him to 2nd. With the remaining schedule, 2nd should be easy to reach.
For the record, he's gonna need wins to extend the season. He's averaging 8.7 apg this year. Which means that based on current average, he'd need 7 games to get the record. Obviously he's basically guaranteed 3 more games (vUW, BTT, NCAAT). But whether he's got enough run to get to 1,077 will take some wins in both tournaments. If Purdue makes it to the BTTCG, win or lose, that gets him to 6 games. If his assist rate is a little better than average, that might be enough, or it might still require getting to R32. If Purdue doesn't make it to the Saturday or Sunday BTT games, then it almost assuredly means Purdue must make the second weekend of the NCAAT for him to reach the record.
Of course if Purdue plays 11 more games from here on out, it should be no problem :57:
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Update:
(https://i.imgur.com/36XVAut.png)
Purdue and Wisconsin both winning means that Ohio State and Iowa can no longer catch either of them.
Penn State's loss means that they will be one of the bottom three seeds in the BTT and thus WILL play on Tuesday.
Tonight's games:
If Iowa loses they can't catch UCLA. It also hurts them vis-a-vis tOSU in the race for the #8 seed. Iowa would win a tie with Ohio State but they need to catch Ohio State and if they lose tonight that will only happen if they win AND Ohio State loses this weekend.
If MSU wins they clinch a double-bye and will not play in Chicago until Friday along with Michigan who already clinched the #1 seed.
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The Buckeyes have actually been playing pretty well. They are up to 26th on Torvik after spending most of the season around 40th. Might just be randomness but would be nice if they kept that going.
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Of course if Purdue plays 11 more games from here on out, it should be no problem :57:
You are feeling optimistic this morning!
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You are feeling optimistic this morning!
One in a million is still a chance, according to Lloyd.
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One in a million is still a chance, according to Lloyd.
Purdue's chances aren't THAT bad, those are Ohio State's chances.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFTRwD85AQ4
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Big Ten tournament cliche question:
It feels like different fanbases have different vibes an about how their teams tend to do. To me, Wisconsin tends to be make more runs to the finals than it should, getting whomped by a pretty good team on Sunday after a nice upset, flame out early or get beat by MSU.
Feels like Purdue fans tend to expect an early exit. MSU an early exit to title, but no trips to Sunday with a loss. Michigan feels like it’s often winning/making surprise runs.
Are those right? And do any other fans have particular expectations?
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Big Ten tournament cliche question:
It feels like different fanbases have different vibes an about how their teams tend to do. To me, Wisconsin tends to be make more runs to the finals than it should, getting whomped by a pretty good team on Sunday after a nice upset, flame out early or get beat by MSU.
Feels like Purdue fans tend to expect an early exit. MSU an early exit to title, but no trips to Sunday with a loss. Michigan feels like it’s often winning/making surprise runs.
Are those right? And do any other fans have particular expectations?
Man, Ohio State's sure have changed.
For a while there Ohio State was consistently great in the BTT but lately the Buckeyes haven't done squat.
At this point I'd be thrilled if the Buckeyes made it to the weekend. Depending on how they, UCLA, and Iowa finish the Buckeyes will either start on Wednesday as the #9 seed, or on Thursday as either the #8 or #7 seed. As the #8 or #9 they'd be looking at Michigan on Friday (assuming they even made it to Friday) so basically making it to Friday is just about the ceiling. If the Buckeyes win (vs IU) and the Bruins lose (at USC) then Ohio State would jump up to the #7 seed and there would at least be some chance of making it to the weekend albeit . . .
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cbrTKw50X6U
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Big Ten tournament cliche question:
Feels like Purdue fans tend to expect an early exit.
Yeah, it's one of those things that's just... weird.
In the past, a lot of Purdue fans would say [when criticizing Keady/Painter] that our woes in the tournament were because we were building teams for Big Ten bully ball, and couldn't adjust to the more guard-centric tournament. But that wouldn't explain why we'd also do poorly in the CONFERENCE tournament where we're playing the teams we see every year...
Others have speculated that Painter just doesn't care about the BTT and wants to be fresher for the NCAAT. I can see that, but... He doesn't strike me as the type that doesn't want to be competitive, EVER.
So I don't really know why we seem to be such a consistently poor BTT team...
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MSU fans call it the sack race. You are in it, so youd rather win. But if you do, its not something you bring up, and if you lose, go enjoy a hot dog and a beer and watch the others.
It does seem like MSU rarely performs to expectations. In the years they are on the bubble, they seem to always pull a Friday upset to lock it up. When favored they seem to frequently lose on Saturday.
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Big Ten tournament cliche question:
It feels like different fanbases have different vibes an about how their teams tend to do. And do any other fans have particular expectations?
Husker fans simply hope to make the tourney and then lose the first game miserably
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The ending of this stupid Rutgers v MSU game reminds me of why I've stopped watching basketball.
To be specific. A clock review over maybe 3 lost seconds with over 1 minute to go in a marginally 'close' game? Took forever
WBC time. Of course fsn2 for the win.
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Final update heading into the final weekend:
(https://i.imgur.com/uOuRwHq.png)
Michigan has clinched the #1 seed and will not play in Chicago until Friday.
Michigan State has clinched a top-4 seed and will not play in Chicago until Friday.
Nebraska and Illinois: If either or both lose, they will finish tied with the PU/UW winner at 14-6. The loser of that tie would drop to the #5 seed and have to play on Thursday.
Purdue and Wisconsin: The winner will tie with either UNL or IL or both IF those teams lose. However, if those teams win then the winner is the outright #5 seed and that is that. The loser will drop to 13-7 and tie with UCLA IF UCLA beats USC again. That would be a tie for 6th/7th (or as the kids say six-seven) but either way they start the BTT on Thursday.
UCLA: If the Bruins win they tie the UW/PU loser. If they lose they tie Ohio State IF Ohio State beats Indiana.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes will be the #8 seed unless either:
- They win and UCLA loses. In this case they would tie UCLA for 7th/8th and tOSU wins that tie, or
- They lose and Iowa wins. In this case they would tie Iowa for 8th/9th and tOSU loses that tie.
Iowa: If the Hawkeyes win and tOSU loses, the Hawkeyes get the #8 seed. If the Hawkeyes lose and IU wins then the Hawkeyes and Hoosiers tie for 9th/10th at 10-10.
Indiana: The Hoosiers will either be the #10 seed outright or tied with Iowa for 9th/10th.
Minnesota/Washington/USC: These three are tied for 11th/12th/13th and can neither catch any of the teams ahead of them nor be caught by any of the teams behind them so they will be the 11-13 seeds. Thus they are all starting BTT play on Wednesday.
Rutgers wins all ties so they will get the last bye (avoiding playing on Tuesday) unless they lose (vs PSU) AND NU wins (at MN).
Northwestern avoids playing on Tuesday only if they win and RU loses.
Maryland/Oregon/Penn State: They will all start BTT play on Tuesday.
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Getting a little deeper into tiebreakers:
#1 seed is clinched, Michigan.
#2 seed is MSU if they win. If MSU loses then they would end up in a tie with either UNL or IL or both if either/both of them win. MSU beat IL and lost to UNL so they would win a tie with IL and lose a tie with UNL. In the event of a three way tie (likely) then the H2H2H is:
- 2-1 Nebraska: Beat MSU, split with IL.
- 1-1 Michigan State: Beat Illinois, lost to UNL.
- 1-2 Illinois: Split with UNL, lost to MSU.
Thus, Illinois is eliminated from contention for the #2 seed and would get the #3 seed ONLY if they win and UNL loses. Also, MSU has clinched a top-3 seed because they would beat IL in any tie.
#3 seed is most likely MSU but would be Nebraska if MSU beats Michigan. It could be Illinois but only if IL wins and UNL loses.
#4 seed Illinois is the most likely. However there is an unlikely but mathematically possible other consideration. If Nebraska (vs Iowa) or Illinois (at Maryland) or both were to lose they would fall into a tie with the PU/UW winner. Here is how that shakes out:
- Nebraska: Split with IL, beat UW, lost to PU
- Illinois: Split with UNL, beat PU, lost to UW
- Purdue: Beat UNL, lost to IL
- Wisconsin: Beat IL, lost to UNL
Thus either Nebraska or Illinois *COULD* end up playing on Thursday as either Purdue or Wisconsin *COULD* get the #4 seed but they each need the exact right combination of results to get there.
The PU/UW loser will either be #6 outright (if UCLA loses) or tied for 6/7 with UCLA (if the Bruins win). In the event that UCLA wins, here are their tiebreakers with PU/UW:
- UCLA wins a tie with PU
- UW wins a tie with UCLA
Thus Wisconsin will be no worse than the #6 seed but Purdue could fall to #7 (if they lose and UCLA wins).
I already covered Ohio State but to review:
The Buckeyes are in 8th place and will be the #8 seed unless either:
- They win and UCLA loses. In this case tOSU wins the 7/8 tie with UCLA and gets the #7 seed, or
- They lose and Iowa wins. In this case tOSU loses the 8/9 tie with Iowa and gets the #9 seed.
Iowa wins either of the ties they could mathematically end up in. If they win and tOSU loses then they tie tOSU for 8/9, win that tie and get the #8 seed. If they lose and IU wins then they tie IU for 9/10 but they win that tie and get the #9 seed anyway.
Indiana has clinched the #10 seed because they could tie Iowa but they would lose that tie and they cannot be caught from behind.
Minnesota/Washington/USC: These three are tied for 11/12/13 at 7-12. They can't catch IU nor can the be caught by the teams behind them so collectively they WILL BE the #11, #12, and #13 seeds. Here are their H2H's:
- Washington beat MN once and USC twice so they win any tie.
- USC beat MN and lost twice to UDub so they would lose to Udub and beat MN in any tie.
- Minnesota lost to both UDub and USC so they lose any tie.
Rutgers is 5-14 but they beat NU, beat Oregon, and beat Maryland twice so they win any tie. They will NOT have to play on Tuesday unless they lose (vs PSU) AND NU wins (at MN).
Northwestern is also 5-14 but can't avoid playing on Tuesday unless they win AND RU loses. They come in second in a tie involving RU and win any other tie so they can do no worse than the #15 seed.
Oregon is 4-15 and would lose ties with either RU or NU or both. They would, however, win a tie over UMD. Thus they will be the #16 seed unless they lose (vs Udub) and UMD wins (vs IL). In that case they would be #17.
Maryland is 4-15 and would lose ties with any/all of RU, NU, and OR so they are stuck with the #17 seed unless they win (vs IL) and OR loses (vs Udub). Maryland would win a tie with PSU so they can't fall to #18.
Penn State has clinched the #18 seed because they would lose any tie.
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Projected BTT seeds (teams in bold have clinched that seed):
- 19-1 Michigan
- 15-5 Nebraska
- 15-5 Michigan State
- 15-5 Illinois
- 14-6 Purdue
- 13-7 Wisconsin
- 13-7 UCLA
- 12-8 Ohio State
- 10-10 Iowa
- 9-10 Indiana
- 8-12 Washington
- 8-12 Minnesota
- 7-13 USC
- 6-14 Rutgers
- 5-15 Northwestern
- 4-16 Oregon
- 4-16 Maryland
- 3-17 Penn State
Based on the above projections (see tiebreakers in earlier post) the match-ups for the B1G Tournament at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois would be:
Tuesday, March 10 (Peacock):
- #15 Northwestern vs #18 Penn State, 730
- #16 Oregon vs #17 Maryland, 5
Wednesday, March 11:
- #9 Iowa vs OR/UMD, noon Peacock
- #10 Indiana vs NU/PSU, 630 BTN
- #11 Washington vs #14 Rutgers, 9
- #12 Minnesota vs #13 USC, 230
Thursday, March 12 (BTN):
- #5 Purdue vs MN/USC, 230
- #6 Wisconsin vs UDub/RU, 9
- #7 UCLA vs IU/NU/PSU, 630
- #8 Ohio State vs IA/OR/UMD, noon
Friday, March 13 (BTN):
- #1 Michigan vs tOSU/IA/OR/UMD, noon
- #2 Nebraska vs UCLA/IU/NU/PSU, 630
- #3 Michigan State vs UW/UDub/RU, 9
- #4 Illinois vs PU/MN/USC, 230
Saturday, March 14 (CBS):
- M/tOSU/IA/OR/UMD vs IL/PU/MN/USC, noon
- UNL/UCLA/IU/NU/PSU vs MSU/UW/UDub/RU 230
Sunday, March 15 (CBS):
- M/tOSU/IA/OR/UMD/IL/PU/MN/USC vs UNL/UCLA/IU/NU/PSU/MSU/UW/UDub/RU, 330
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#1 seed Belmont gets blown out by #9 Drake by 21 points in the MVC Quarters.
Guessing that's not a bid steal situation, I don't think Belmont has an at large case, the MVC isn't what it once was.
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#1 seed Belmont gets blown out by #9 Drake by 21 points in the MVC Quarters.
Guessing that's not a bid steal situation, I don't think Belmont has an at large case, the MVC isn't what it once was.
I *THINK* you are right but it could be close. Belmont (before this loss) was #54 in NET and:
- 0-0 in Q1 - They didn't play a single Q1 game all year long.
- 5-2 in Q2
- 11-3 in Q3
- 9-0 in Q4
The thing is that Drake is atrocious. They were 11-19 and #202 in NET which would be a Q4 loss but Drake will probably climb enough to make it Q3. For reference:
- Q1: 1-30 H; 1-50 N; 1-75 A
- Q2: 31-75 H; 51-100 N; 76-135 A
- Q3: 76-160 H; 101-200 N; 135-240 A
- Q4: 161-353 H; 201-353 N; 241-353 A
So the loss to #202 Drake is BARELY in Q4 and Drake will undoubtedly move up enough that it will be a Q3 loss leaving Belmont at 22-6 with a NET ranking in the high 50s or the 60s and:
- ZERO Q1 games
- 5-2 Q2
- 11-4 Q3
- 9-0 Q4
I wouldn't put them in if I were on the committee but who knows . . .
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Speaking of Bid Thieves and the bubble, Lunardi updated this morning and here is the latest bubble status for B1G teams:
- Ohio State has the fourth-to-last bye. The Buckeyes are 19-11/11-8.
- Indiana is the second-to-last team in. The Hoosiers are 18-12/9-10.
That is it.
Those two teams play each other in Columbus tomorrow evening. Indiana will then go to the BTT as the #10 seed where they will play the 15/18 winner on Wednesday. Ohio State will either be the #8 or the #9 seed.
I think that Indiana needs at least one more win but possibly two. The need for the second win is because their BTT opening opponent will be a bad team so they might need a win not because they need a win but because they can't afford a bad loss. Their second BTT game would be against the #7 seed so a loss there wouldn't be so damaging.
I *THINK* Ohio State would squeak in without any more wins but it would be a close call and Buckeye fans would be sweating out Selection Sunday. One more win seals the deal.
The only other B1G team that I think might have an issue is Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 20-10/10-9 and 20 wins is usually solidly in but I'm not sure that 20-11/10-10 would do it.
Current NET and SoS from KenPom:
- #26 Iowa is 3-7 in Q1; 7-2 in Q2; 4-1 in Q3; and 6-0 in Q4 with KenPom's #64 SoS
- #32 Ohio State is 2-10 in Q1; 6-1 in Q2; 5-0 in Q3; and 6-0 in Q4 with KenPom's #26 SoS
- #37 Indiana is 2-10 in Q1; 3-2 in Q2; 6-0 in Q3; and 7-0 in Q4 with KenPom's #42 SoS
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Lunardi's projections as of this morning:
- #1 Michigan
- #2 Michigan State, Illinois
- #3 Nebraska, Purdue
- #6 Wisconsin
- #9 UCLA, Iowa
- #10 Ohio State
- #11 Indiana (play in)
Based on the past performance of those seeds in the 40 Tournaments since expansion to 64 (1985-2025 but no 2020) those seeds should achieve:
- 6.81 teams in the R32
- 3.81 teams in the S16
- 2.34 teams in the E8
- 1.09 teams in the F4
- 0.56 teams in the NC
- 0.28 NC's
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I *THINK* you are right but it could be close. Belmont (before this loss) was #54 in NET and:
- 0-0 in Q1 - They didn't play a single Q1 game all year long.
- 5-2 in Q2
- 11-3 in Q3
- 9-0 in Q4
The thing is that Drake is atrocious. They were 11-19 and #202 in NET which would be a Q4 loss but Drake will probably climb enough to make it Q3. For reference:
- Q1: 1-30 H; 1-50 N; 1-75 A
- Q2: 31-75 H; 51-100 N; 76-135 A
- Q3: 76-160 H; 101-200 N; 135-240 A
- Q4: 161-353 H; 201-353 N; 241-353 A
So the loss to #202 Drake is BARELY in Q4 and Drake will undoubtedly move up enough that it will be a Q3 loss leaving Belmont at 22-6 with a NET ranking in the high 50s or the 60s and:
- ZERO Q1 games
- 5-2 Q2
- 11-4 Q3
- 9-0 Q4
I wouldn't put them in if I were on the committee but who knows . . .
Don’t think they’ll have much of a chance. Good mid-major team. Not a lot there, and they’re at best second in line for tough-luck mid-major.
Would be interested to see a breakdown of supply of Q1 games. That becomes a weird thing this time of year.
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Which midmajors have likely looked up bids without winning their conference tournaments?
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Which midmajors have likely looked up bids without winning their conference tournaments?
Gonzaga, St Mary’s, St Louis, Utah State. Santa Clara and VCU on fringes.
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I know the metrics, but I have a hard time seeing a 1 loss Miami left out
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I know the metrics, but I have a hard time seeing a 1 loss Miami left out
It would be an interesting test.
They only beat Akron by 3, at home so it certainly isn't crazy to think that Akron might knock them off. Akron will be the MAC #2 seed so it would be in the CG.
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I don't know. Miami 's schedule is atrocious:
They just needed OT to beat #229 Ohio U.
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I know the metrics, but I have a hard time seeing a 1 loss Miami left out
I was reserving judgement because at the time I posted they had not won yet. But I think they’re probably in Unless there’s a big rash of bid thiefs or the bubble ends ip
pretty strong.
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#1 seed Belmont gets blown out by #9 Drake by 21 points in the MVC Quarters.
Guessing that's not a bid steal situation, I don't think Belmont has an at large case, the MVC isn't what it once was.
Whole top of the MVC crapped the bed yesterday. Only favorite who won was #2 Bradley, and they needed 2OT to beat #7 Valpo. Rest lost, and not close.
#1 Belmont lost by 21 to #9 Drake
#3 Illinois State lost by 22 to #6 Northern Iowa
#4 Murray State lost by 13 to #5 UIC, but UIC was up 23 with like 9 to go
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I know the Wac champion will have at least four losses in conference.
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If we keep a 1 loss Miami out to let in a 14 loss 10th place team, I think we've lost the plot
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If we keep a 1 loss Miami out to let in a 14 loss 10th place team, I think we've lost the plot
This feels like a good reason we have the first four. They’re a sort of misshapen piece if they lose. We have evidence they tried to schedule up, reportedly even being told by Illinois “we need two really terrible teams first before we even consider you.”
It might be a bad beat for 19-14 Va. Tech, but is that’s the trade off, feels like one you can live with.
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This feels like a good reason we have the first four. They’re a sort of misshapen piece if they lose. We have evidence they tried to schedule up, reportedly even being told by Illinois “we need two really terrible teams first before we even consider you.”
It might be a bad beat for 19-14 Va. Tech, but is that’s the trade off, feels like one you can live with.
I agree. I think they'll be in Dayton. But I'd rather reward a winner with bad metrics than a loser who had 20 chances to prove themselves, when we are sorting between teams who all don't deserve a chance to play for a national title
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Is CBS forcing the tip-off to be held in the UW/PU game so we can watch Kansas finish, who is currently up 24 on Kansas State with 1:30 to play?
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Never thought Id see Wisconsin play this style
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Bruce Thornton just became the all time leading scorer in Ohio State history.
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Buckeyes up 22 at the Under 12. Close to clinching byes until Thursday.
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Looking for unbiased views. With this win Ohio State is a lock right?
20-11 overall, 12-8 in a strong league. Worst case scenario is 20-12.
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I'd put em in
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Looking for unbiased views. With this win Ohio State is a lock right?
20-11 overall, 12-8 in a strong league. Worst case scenario is 20-12.
Twenty in this conference is a lock unless the non-conference was just piss (and sometimes if it is). OSU doesn’t have much in the non-con, but it’s enough.
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Florida is REEEEEEALLY good.
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Never thought Id see Wisconsin play this style
No kidding.
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How the F is Iowa ranked ahead of Wisconsin in the NET rankings? What have they done?
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How the F is Iowa ranked ahead of Wisconsin in the NET rankings? What have they done?
Posted a slightly worse record with better scoring margins across the year, probably.
Edit: Actually looking at it, they're probably basically the same. So the scoring margin is boosting Iowa despite a modest gap in success. (UW's SOS looked better by one metric, but not sure how it shakes out in theirs)
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perhaps the Huskers can knock the Hawks down a peg this afternoon
O:-)
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Posted a slightly worse record with better scoring margins across the year, probably.
Edit: Actually looking at it, they're probably basically the same. So the scoring margin is boosting Iowa despite a modest gap in success. (UW's SOS looked better by one metric, but not sure how it shakes out in theirs)
Lost to Wisconsin.
Only beat one ranked team (Nebraska at home).
Only one legit OOC game (lost).
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Lost to Wisconsin.
Only beat one ranked team (Nebraska at home).
Only one legit OOC game (lost).
All true/semi-true things, mostly beside the point.
Thankfully, the NET doesn’t set brackets, and those will all matter on that front.
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Florida is REEEEEEALLY good.
I'd like to see them play a B1G schedule.
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they might get a taste of the B1G at the dance
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How the F is Iowa ranked ahead of Wisconsin in the NET rankings? What have they done?
FWIW, I've been banging this drum for a while. If Iowa loses to UNL this afternoon then loses their BTT opener I think they might miss the Dance.
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I'd like to see them play a B1G schedule.
Our 20-point wins would be 10-point wins?
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6 losses would be 10/11.
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FWIW, I've been banging this drum for a while. If Iowa loses to UNL this afternoon then loses their BTT opener I think they might miss the Dance.
That seems unlikely, and the only angle for the case would be that whoever they face in the first round is going to be extremely dreadful.
The chances are there going to win that game, and even if they lose to Ohio State, they’ll be fine.
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Now 26-5 UNC Wilmington, the #1 seed in the CAA, loses to 9 seed Campbell.
Again not a bid steal situation, but another case where the rep from that conference won't be the best team, and perhaps a less interesting opening round.
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Someone has to explain to me a system where the 9 seed from the CAA getting in the tournament is good from EITHER a competition OR entertainment standpoint.
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6 losses would be 10/11.
(https://i.imgur.com/wm1sjog.jpeg)
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Navy just clinched their first conference title in 26 years. Still need to win the tournament for their first NCAA birth in 28 years
And they fell in the semifinals to Boston University.
Bummer. Although BU won the Patriot League tournament in 2020, the night before everything shut down, so if someone has to get that slot, I wouldn't hate it being them, considering one was stolen from them
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Someone has to explain to me a system where the 9 seed from the CAA getting in the tournament is good from EITHER a competition OR entertainment standpoint.
That's why the NCAA changed the payment structure, to reward winning, and you've seen more conferences switch to a format to reward regular season success.
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#2 in the Big Ten is something I didn't think was possible
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(https://i.imgur.com/wm1sjog.jpeg)
Yes.
Kentucky is really bad, by the way. Big $$$. No chemistry.
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Inquiring minds want to know.
https://twitter.com/ChrisVogt33/status/2030716329917821217 (https://twitter.com/ChrisVogt33/status/2030716329917821217)
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Inquiring minds want to know.
https://twitter.com/ChrisVogt33/status/2030716329917821217 (https://twitter.com/ChrisVogt33/status/2030716329917821217)
Well dag where is Thornton? B1G guards pretty good this year.
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Inquiring minds want to know.
https://twitter.com/ChrisVogt33/status/2030716329917821217 (https://twitter.com/ChrisVogt33/status/2030716329917821217)
He should be in there, but man it is a bloodbath at top, especially when it comes to guards in this conference.
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Has anyone checked on BRAD? Not sure how he's holding up...
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B.R.A.D. and @grillrat (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=11) love the Badgers.
I know this.
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Has anyone checked on BRAD? Not sure how he's holding up...
because of a #7 seed?
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Has anyone checked on BRAD? Not sure how he's holding up...
First time since 1987, I think, that Purdue has scored >=90 points in a loss.
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That seems unlikely, and the only angle for the case would be that whoever they face in the first round is going to be extremely dreadful.
The chances are there going to win that game, and even if they lose to Ohio State, they’ll be fine.
I definitely agree that chances are that they will win their BTT opener and if they do then they don't need to beat Ohio State to be completely secure.
However, the different trajectories that Iowa and Ohio State have taken since their game less than two weeks ago. With that game:
- Iowa moved to 20-8/10-7 and
- Ohio State moved to 17-11/9-8.
At that point Iowa was a game better in the league and three games better overall but since then the Buckeyes are 3-0 and the Hawkeyes are 0-3. Some of that was expected. Like most everyone, I expected Iowa to finish 1-2 with a win at PSU, a home loss to Michigan, and a road loss to Nebraska. Also, like most everyone, I expected Ohio State to finish 2-1 with a home loss to Purdue followed by a win at PSU and a home win over Indiana. Ohio State got an extra win (over PU) and Iowa got an extra loss (at PSU).
Iowa is now #25 in the NET so they are probably secure but their BTT opponent on Wednesday will be either #102 Oregon or #151 Maryland. Ending on a four-game losing streak that includes a loss to #131 Penn State and a loss to either UMD or Ore wouldn't be a good look.
That said, Lunardi doesn't even have them among the bubble teams, he has them safely in as a #10 seed.
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Lunardi's projections heading into the BTT:
- #1 Michigan
- #2 Michigan State, Illinois
- #3 Purdue, Nebraska
- #6 Wisconsin
- #8 UCLA
- #9 Ohio State
- #10 Iowa
Based on the historical performance of those seeds since expansion to 64 (40 tournaments, 1985-2025 but no 2020) those seeds should produce:
- 6.56 teams in the R32
- 3.78 teams in the S16
- 2.33 teams in the E8
- 1.09 teams in the F4
- 0.59 teams in the NC
- 0.29 NC's
There isn't much bubble action left to talk about. In prior weeks Ohio State and USC were in the bubble discussion but they have played their way off of it in good and bad ways respectively. Thus, our only remaining bubble team is Indiana whom Lunardi has as the First Team Out.
Indiana will open BTT play on Wednesday at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois by taking on the winner of PSU/NU at 630 (EST) on Peacock. As I see it that is an absolute must-win for the Hoosiers. If they do win, then they get Purdue at 630 Thursday night on BTN. That would certainly be interesting and I know we have some Purdue fans here who would absolutely LOVE to see the Boilermakers knock the Hoosiers out of the NCAAT. Not sure that a loss to Purdue would sink the Hoosiers but it would be close. If the Hoosiers were to beat both PSU/NU and Purdue then I think they'd be completely secure regardless of the outcome against Nebraska on Friday night and beyond.
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Let's Go
#2 Michigan State, Illinois
#3 Purdue, Nebraska
#6 Wisconsin
#8 UCLA
#9 Ohio State
#10 Iowa
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Let's Go
#2 Michigan State, Illinois
#3 Purdue, Nebraska
#6 Wisconsin
#8 UCLA
#9 Ohio State
#10 Iowa
I see what you did there and I concur!
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As an Ohio State fan I don't actually root against my team but they might be better off losing the first round in the BTT. Here is why:
Lunardi currently has the Buckeyes as a #9 seed. #9 seeds historically are roughly a coin-flip against #8's in the first round of the NCAAT but then a dreadful one win every 20 attempts in the second round.
If they move up to a #8 seed that is a marginally better 1 out of 10 in the second round.
If they fall back to a #10 or #11 their chances in the first round dip somewhat to just under 40% but their chances of making the S16 actually INCREASE to 16-17%.
The only way their chances would be better is if they got all the way up to a #7 seed. #7's are .613 in the first round and make the S16 roughly 18% of the time. The thing is, how far would Ohio State have to go in Chicago to move up to a #7? I'm thinking they'd need to beat IA/UMD/Ore on Thursday and upset Michigan on Friday and that STILL might not be enough.
That 8/9 line just makes a S16 appearance a pipedream.
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^^^
Ohio State has not made the Tournament since 2022. Take what you can get, and still, the low odds Vs a #1 seed in the 2nd Rnd is a season to be proud of after a three season absence.
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https://twitter.com/SteveHelwagen/status/2031075804931612975 (https://twitter.com/SteveHelwagen/status/2031075804931612975)
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Badgers starting center projects to be back by the tournament, maybe this week. Still can’t really believe they won on Saturday without him.
The best defensive wing on the team might be back at some point too. But after a broken wrist, that might be a second weekend of the tournament pipe dream.
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#6 Furman knocks off #1 ETSU in the SoCon final.
Blah
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#6 Furman knocks off #1 ETSU in the SoCon final.
Blah
This one feels a little less bad than some of the other ones considering those teams were kind of close in terms of their overall profiles and such.
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The WAC might prevent their #1 seed from participating in their conference tournament over an exit fee.
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Congratulations Terps and Wildcats on making it to Wednesday. Who do you have today:
- Maryland vs Iowa -11.5 noon Peacock
- USC vs Washington -5.5 230 Peacock
- Northwestern vs Indiana -4.5 630 BTN
- Rutgers vs Minnesota -5.5 9 BTN
I like Iowa, Washington, Northwestern, and Rutgers.
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#6 Furman knocks off #1 ETSU in the SoCon final.
Blah
#4 vs. #7 in the Big Sky championship tonight
Idaho trying to get their first bid since 1990
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Iowa beats Maryland and ends any question about getting in (we had a discussion about this above and there may not have been a question anyway but now it is moot).
So the Ohio State / Iowa game tomorrow at noon (Peacock) almost certainly has no bearing on who GOES to the Tournament but in Lunardi's latest tOSU was a #9 and Iowa was a #10 so they may well be playing for that difference. The winner will face #1 seed Michigan on Friday at noon (BTN). (shoutout to @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) , LoL) For either Iowa or Ohio State I see that as a "house money" game. Neither is going to be hurt by losing to a team that is a near-lock for an NCAAT #1 seed and a win would be huge so basically it is an everything to gain, nothing to lose situation either way.
As far as the gain . . . I'm not sure. Maybe Iowa or Ohio State would move up to a #7 seed with a win over Michigan (and nothing beyond that). With an upset they'd get into a Saturday semi-final likely against Illinois with Wisconsin, Washington, and USC as possibilities.
To get up to a #6 seed I'm thinking that either would need to make it to Sunday. Once there the Committee probably wouldn't pay any attention to the B1GCG (because it ends about 5 minutes before they go on-air with the field). Consequently the Committee might push them to a #6 just in case they win. I don't know.
I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around the idea that USC and Washington are currently playing a League Tournament game . . .
in Chicago . . .
in the B1G Tournament . . .
for the right to play Wisconsin.
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NET (before school name) and KenPom (after) rankings for B1G teams:
- #2 Michigan #2
- #5 Illinois #5
- #10 Purdue #8
- #11 Michigan State #9
- #12 Nebraska #12
- #25 Iowa #24
- #26 Wisconsin #23
- #30 Ohio State #26
- #34 UCLA #28
- #38 Indiana #41
- #60 Washington #54
- #68 Northwestern #63
- #75 Minnesota #73
- #79 USC #77
- #109 Oregon #102
- #136 Penn State #137
- #137 Maryland #121
- #141 Rutgers #129
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I was hoping for USC, as it would have been a revenge game for UW.
Now, UW is a revenge game for uw.
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All games on BTN today:
- Ohio State -1.5 vs Iowa, noon
- Wisconsin -7.5 vs Washington, 230
- Purdue -11.5 vs Northwestern, 630
- UCLA -11.5 vs Rutgers 9
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I like Iowa, Washington, Northwestern, and Rutgers.
Broken clocks and all.
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No one will be surprised if Wisconsin loses today. And no one will be surprised if they make it to the semis.
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that's basketball
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Miami really going to put the committee through this
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No one will be surprised if Wisconsin loses today. And no one will be surprised if they make it to the semis.
I think I’d be a little surprised if they lost today.
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Miami really going to put the committee through this
Thankfully, the bubble is really helping them out.
Seems like a decent number of teams behind them are already in the clubhouse with not very impressive records.
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Miami (OH) absolutely deserves to get in. If the committee were to exclude them, the MAC commissioner would bring hellfire (rightfully).
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Miami (OH) absolutely deserves to get in. If the committee were to exclude them, the MAC commissioner would bring hellfire (rightfully).
In Dayton, sure.
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Miami (OH) absolutely deserves to get in. If the committee were to exclude them, the MAC commissioner would bring hellfire (rightfully).
I'll be the a-hole elitist. I disagree. Miami was #54 in NET, #93 in KenPom before this loss and the UMASS team they just lost to was #204 NET, #195 KenPom.
Miami didn't play a single Q1 game all year and only two Q2 games.
If there is room for a midget that lost to a team THAT bad in their league tournament then there should be room for Indiana, Washington, and Northwestern from our league.
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Those teams would be more than welcome to join the MAC if they wish
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I'll be the a-hole elitist. I disagree.
You will? On this topic? What a departure from the norm.
(I personally think it’s fine to let them in, and it’s kind of pointless to argue about it. You believe a field should be one thing vs another and prefer one kind of flawed team to another)
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@Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) you finally got your wish!
Even though you explicitly did NOT wish for it this year.
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Those teams would be more than welcome to join the MAC if they wish
And Miami is more than welcome to play two or three teams with a pulse during their season.
I feel like Ohio State's loss to Pittsburgh on the road is somewhat embarrassing. Pittsburgh is #102. Miami just lost on a neutral court to #204.
If they wanted to go to the tournament to determine the National Champion they should have run the nation's #204 team right out of Rocket Mortgage or whatever they are calling Gund Arena.
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You will? On this topic? What a departure from the norm.
What did I do?
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And Miami is more than welcome to play two or three teams with a pulse during their season.
I feel like Ohio State's loss to Pittsburgh on the road is somewhat embarrassing. Pittsburgh is #102. Miami just lost on a neutral court to #204.
If they wanted to go to the tournament to determine the National Champion they should have run the nation's #204 team right out of Rocket Mortgage or whatever they are calling Gund Arena.
They try.
If Indiana thinks the best way to get to the tournament is to go undefeated in the MAC, they should join the MAC
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Big Ten helping Dusty May isn't playing the way they think it is
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It depends on what your belief that the tournament should represent. If you believe that it should only comprise of the "best" 64 (/68) teams in the nation, then you would likely believe that the smaller leagues shouldn't get any automatic qualifiers at all.
While football is generally considered that way, the NCAA tournament has always been a little different (at least in modern times). The NCAA tourney has always been more of an inclusive event and that belief has been justified by the countless Cinderellas that have been produced over the years. Yeah, almost all Cinderellas barely make it past the sweet 16, but the fact that so many exist at all proves that any team can be competitive at this level.
It's REALLY hard to go undefeated in the regular season, even with a creampuff schedule. Miami OH is one of only 25 teams to have ever done it (out of what?, something like 26 leagues @ 8 teams each for 75 years = 15,000+ attempts). They absolutely deserve to be rewarded for that.
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Hard for me to see what the point of a regular season is if you don't reward teams who go undefeated during one. Leaving Miami out is just declaring the regular season a glorified exhibition. Which hey, maybe it is. But that would put the stamp on it.
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Huh. No CBI this year.
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@Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) you finally got your wish!
Even though you explicitly did NOT wish for it this year.
OSU has gotta be a lock by now, right?
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It depends on what your belief that the tournament should represent. If you believe that it should only comprise of the "best" 64 (/68) teams in the nation, then you would likely believe that the smaller leagues shouldn't get any automatic qualifiers at all.
I would absolutely be ok with this.
The NCAA tourney has always been more of an inclusive event
Yes it has been inclusive . . . of conference CHAMPIONS. Not also-rans that lost to crappy (#204 in NET) #8 seeds in their league tournaments.
(T)hat belief has been justified by the countless Cinderellas that have been produced over the years. Yeah, almost all Cinderellas barely make it past the sweet 16, but the fact that so many exist at all proves that any team can be competitive at this level.
In the 40 tournaments since they expanded to 64 there have been a total of 640 #13-#16 seeds. Those 640 teams have a grand combined total of exactly ONE second weekend win in the NCAA Tournament. To me that isn't justification that is proof that they didn't belong in the first place.
It's REALLY hard to go undefeated in the regular season, even with a creampuff schedule. Miami OH is one of only 25 teams to have ever done it (out of what?, something like 26 leagues @ 8 teams each for 75 years = 15,000+ attempts). They absolutely deserve to be rewarded for that.
I agree with ^this^ and and this:
Hard for me to see what the point of a regular season is if you don't reward teams who go undefeated during one. Leaving Miami out is just declaring the regular season a glorified exhibition. Which hey, maybe it is. But that would put the stamp on it.
I have a really simple solution that I would 100% support. Lets get rid of league tournaments altogether and replace them with two additional regular season conference games. Ie, in the B1G instead of 11 OOC and 20 League games followed by a League Tournament, instead play 11 OOC and 22 League games with NO League Tournament.
On this point I 100% agree with something @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) said a few weeks ago:
As much as Id rather not give them credit, please stop referring to this as the Big Ten regular season championship. This is the Big Ten championship, the other is a postseason tournament.
My team is still alive in the BTT so in theory they could win it and yet I will tell you right now that if they do, I would still tell you that Michigan not Ohio State was the 2026 B1G Champion.
Please understand that the above is no small concession on my part. I absolutely despise Michigan. They knocked my team out of the NCAAT back in the early 90s with the Fab(ulously well paid) Five. That dirtbag cheating Michigan team literally had a payroll that might have rivaled some small-market NBA teams (back when that was not allowed) and obviously you all know about their dirtbag cheating ways in football. I absolutely despise Michigan and as I look around my office:
- My diploma is in a frame with a picture of the Horseshoe.
- I have a framed poster of the last play of the 2002 NC (tOSU over Miami).
- I have a framed picture of Woody.
- I have a framed generic Ohio State logo thing.
- I have a picture of Brutus and I at a pregame event at the 2006 Iowa game in Iowa City.
- I have a frame that we made of my parents, brother, and I at the 1997 RoseBowl with my ticketstub from that game.
- I have a picture of my late father and I at a game in the Horeshoe.
- I have a Buckeye Legends framed thing that I bought on one of my Bowl trips.
In spite of all of that, the team that went 19-1 in the regular season is the Champion as far as I am concerned.
Above @grillrat (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=11) made it out as a dichotomy between either:
- Best 64 (or 68) or
- Rewarding League Champions.
It isn't. As it currently exists it is a hybrid between the two. There are two ways in:
- Be a League Champion - as your league defines it, or
- Be one of the best however many non-Champions are needed to fill out the 68 team bracket.
Miami is CLEARLY AND OBVIOUSLY neither of those things and it isn't even close. Not only are they definitively NOT the MAC Champion, they will not even be in that game nor even in the semi-final.
That kicks them down among the other non-champions and in Lunardi's latest forecast the eight teams closest to the cut-line are (by NET ranking):
- #37 SMU
- #38 Indiana
- #39 Auburn
- #40 Santa Clara
- #44 VCU
- #45 New Mexico
- #57 VaTech
- #62 Stanford
Only four of those can make it and none of them will make it if they lose their league tournament opener to a team ranked 200+.
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OSU has gotta be a lock by now, right?
I think they were a lock BEFORE they beat Iowa but there is absolutely no question at this point. Yes, they are a lock so I see it as a "nothing to lose" game.
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The conference tournaments are a stupid money grab. Winning them is on par with winning Maui
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I also think if you proved over 20 games that you arent the best team in your conference,.you have zero right to have a shot to be the best team in the nation. Yet, we have people arguing that the 11th best team in their conference might be the best team in the nation?
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It depends on what your belief that the tournament should represent. If you believe that it should only comprise of the "best" 64 (/68) teams in the nation, then you would likely believe that the smaller leagues shouldn't get any automatic qualifiers at all.
I have a solution that *MIGHT* solve the Miami issue. I'm ok with the hybrid nature and automatic qualifiers to an extent. However, I don't think that the Champion of ANY league no matter how awful should get an auto-bid. I think we should go back to 64 and the rule should be that you get an auto-bid but only if your conference has at least one team ranked in the top-128 (so double the size of the tournament). For this year (based on most recent NET rankings as posted on the NCAA site as I type this right now 3/12/26) that would eliminate:
- BigSky - best team is #129 Montana State: NOTE that MTST could probably play their way in by winning the BigSky Tournament because they are REALLY close.
- Patriot - best team is #134 Navy
- SoCon - best team is #135 ETSU
- ASUN - best team is #165 Austin Peay
- OVC - best team is #172 Tennessee State
- MAAC - best team is #178 Merrimack
- NEC - best team is #196 LIU
- MEAC - best team is #200 Howard
- America East - best team is #201 UMBC
- SWAC - best team is #254 Bethune-Cookman
If you took out those ten tallest midgets you'd have enough room that Miami would probably get a legitimate at-large bid and honestly if it was close and I was on the committee I'd vote to include them. I wouldn't vote for it as-is because it is NOT close.
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The conference tournaments are a stupid money grab. Winning them is on par with winning Maui
I 100% agree but I have a question that we might have the ability to research and answer here:
Is it even successful as a money-grab?
I *THINK* the NCAA rule is that you can play 31 regular season games (it isn't that simple because you have to include a MTE or two to get there but functionally it is a 31 game regular season limitation) then you CAN play a League Tournament.
If that (above) is the case then it obviously IS successful as a money grab because the choice is an actual dichotomy either:
- Play a League Tournament, or
- Do NOT play a League Tournament.
In that case, anything the league makes off the league tournament is more than nothing so it is successful as a money grab.
My argument (referenced above) is that there should be a choice between:
- Play a 31 game regular season and a league tournament, or
- Play a 33 game regular season and no league tournament.
That would be almost the exact same number of games because the league tournament has 17 games and two additional league games per school would be 18 more games. I think we would actually make MORE money playing two more league games (one more home game per team) in front of actual fans rather than playing 17 games in front of empty seats in the United Center.
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I also think if you proved over 20 games that you arent the best team in your conference,.you have zero right to have a shot to be the best team in the nation. Yet, we have people arguing that the 11th best team in their conference might be the best team in the nation?
I have no dog in this fight as my team clearly and obviously is neither the best team in the nation nor the best team in the league. That said, the example you gave is a little extreme. Michigan is 19-1 and beat Ohio State twice and Ohio State is 12-8 so there isn't a question. However, if Michigan was 19-1 with a loss to Ohio State in the only game played between the two and Ohio State was say 18-2 or 17-3 having played a tougher schedule than Michigan then I would fiercely disagree with the idea that you have to win your league to be the best in the nation. What if Ohio State got stuck playing Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, UCLA, and Purdue twice each and still went 18-2 while Michigan played a comparatively lightweight schedule and went 19-1?
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Well, Wisconsin very nearly Wisconsined away its 18-point lead over Washington, but hung on for the win. Phew. Let's see how the three is flowing tomorrow against Illinois.
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I have no dog in this fight as my team clearly and obviously is neither the best team in the nation nor the best team in the league. That said, the example you gave is a little extreme. Michigan is 19-1 and beat Ohio State twice and Ohio State is 12-8 so there isn't a question. However, if Michigan was 19-1 with a loss to Ohio State in the only game played between the two and Ohio State was say 18-2 or 17-3 having played a tougher schedule than Michigan then I would fiercely disagree with the idea that you have to win your league to be the best in the nation. What if Ohio State got stuck playing Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, UCLA, and Purdue twice each and still went 18-2 while Michigan played a comparatively lightweight schedule and went 19-1?
While I don't disagree with what you are saying, these are two different arguments. You are comparing #1 versus (likely) #2 in the conference and who is the more worthy. ELA is saying more likely that you don't to deserve to be in consideration to have a chance to be champion if you can't even finish in the top half of your league.
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While I don't disagree with what you are saying, these are two different arguments. You are comparing #1 versus (likely) #2 in the conference and who is the more worthy. ELA is saying more likely that you don't to deserve to be in consideration to have a chance to be champion if you can't even finish in the top half of your league.
I don't disagree except that being in (or barely out of) the top half of the B1G is a MUCH bigger accomplishment than winning the Big Sky, Patriot, SoCon, ASUN, OVC, MAAC, NEC, MEAC, America East, or SWAC.
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It depends on what your belief that the tournament should represent. If you believe that it should only comprise of the "best" 64 (/68) teams in the nation, then you would likely believe that the smaller leagues shouldn't get any automatic qualifiers at all.
While football is generally considered that way, the NCAA tournament has always been a little different (at least in modern times). The NCAA tourney has always been more of an inclusive event and that belief has been justified by the countless Cinderellas that have been produced over the years. Yeah, almost all Cinderellas barely make it past the sweet 16, but the fact that so many exist at all proves that any team can be competitive at this level.
It's REALLY hard to go undefeated in the regular season, even with a creampuff schedule. Miami OH is one of only 25 teams to have ever done it (out of what?, something like 26 leagues @ 8 teams each for 75 years = 15,000+ attempts). They absolutely deserve to be rewarded for that.
I'm not going to weigh in on Miami (OH) specifically, because I don't really know and haven't followed their schedule.
But I think the NCAAT is a good blend of:
- Automatic qualifiers
- The best of the rest
Obviously Miami (OH) isn't #1. Per @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) , is Miami (OH) included in #2? I don't know, but the determination should be based on resume, not a feel good story.
If you schedule terribly, maybe you need to win your conference tournament to get a spot. No matter how many Little Sisters of the Poor you beat up on. Because you can't argue "while they're 31-0!" when they wouldn't be close to 31-0 if they played anyone with a pulse.
And you also can't claim "they're undefeated so they should get in!" To be undefeated they'd have won their conference tournament and gotten in. They're not undefeated. They just lost. They were undefeated. And then they lost to a REALLY bad team. It's not enough to say they were undefeated in the regular season. Nothing matters until Selection Sunday. They're not undefeated on Selection Sunday.
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It's not enough to say they were undefeated in the regular season.
Well why not? It's happened like 20 times. In the history of college basketball. Seems like a pretty good bullet on the ole resume.
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Seems like a pretty good bullet on the ole resume.
Yeah, it is not. Any legit tournament team would be EXPECTED to win all of those game and ANY loss on Miami's schedule would be problematic for a team looking for an at-large bid.
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Yeah, it is not. Any legit tournament team would be EXPECTED to win all of those game and ANY loss on Miami's schedule would be problematic for a team looking for an at-large bid.
The math ain't mathin' on that
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Well why not? It's happened like 20 times. In the history of college basketball. Seems like a pretty good bullet on the ole resume.
It should be a pretty good bullet on the resume. But it matters who you play. It's not that great of a bullet if all your opponents were shooting blanks.
The NCAAT, unlike the CFP, has a simple and objective way to get into the field: win your conference tourney.
Fail to do that, and you have to be evaluated by resume. And we have some semi-objective tools for that, such as NET, and other things that evaluate a team in ways that are perhaps a little more nuanced than W/L record. Such as the fact that 4 of their wins went to OT, and another 5 wins determined in regulation were 1-score games. All against weak competition. But no, they had a great W/L record, right?!?! I mean, if all we care about is W/L, at 31-1 they should be a 1 seed!
Again, I'm not arguing necessarily for or against Miami (OH) specifically. Just saying that we've built an objective path for teams in weak conferences to be included. If you don't make it objectively, then you're falling on the mercy of the court and you need to wait for the jury to rule.
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The math ain't mathin' on that
You are smarter than this.
Here is some more math for you:
- #54 in NET
- #93 in KenPom
- #87 in Torvik (You usually cite this one)
Those are all BEFORE they LOST to a pathetic (#203 in NET/#195 in KenPom/#171 in Torvik) team.
I think that really @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) summarized my feelings very well here:
Just saying that we've built an objective path for teams in weak conferences to be included. If you don't make it objectively, then you're falling on the mercy of the court and you need to wait for the jury to rule.
They had a chance to get a charity bid that we specifically reserve for tallest midgets who spend the year beating up on patsies. They FAILED at that. Now they are thrown in with the rest of the non-Champions and their accomplishment of going 31-1 against the little sisters of the poor shouldn't even get them in the discussion because Indiana's accomplishment of going 18-14 required the Hoosiers to win 3 Q1 games and 3 more Q2 games. The Redskins RedHawks only won two Q2 games and ZERO Q1 games.
Oh, and lets talk about undefeated and "the math": Indiana was UNDEFEATED in Q3 and Q4 games. They went 5-0 in Q3 and 7-0 in Q4. Miami was NOT undefeated in such games because their loss to UMASS will be either Q3 or Q4 depending on how much UMASS moves.
You want to know who else is actually undefeated in Q3 and Q4 games unlike Miami who lost one of those?
- SMU is 11-0 in Q3 and Q4 and a bubble team
- Indiana is 12-0 in Q3 and Q4 and a bubble team that is NOT going to get in
- VCU is 20-0 in Q3 and Q4 and a bubble team
- VaTech is 11-0 in Q3 and Q4 and a bubble team
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I consider my own team to be not all that great but Ohio State is light years ahead of the RedHawks. With the Iowa win the Buckeyes are 4-10 in Q1 and 5-1 in Q2. That is nine Q1/2 wins which is nine more than Miami had. I'm beating on this point because it needs to sink in . . . Miami has literally ZERO impressive wins.
Miami's best win was a home win over Akron by 3 points. If Ohio State's best win was a home win over Akron by 3 points the Buckeyes would be something like 8-24 and not even remotely in the discussion for an at-large bid. It is bad enough that we give charity bids to tallest midgets there is no reason to even discuss giving charity bids to midgets that aren't even the tallest.
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With 16 assists tonight, a BTT record, Braden Smith jumps to 1049 total. Second on the all-time list, but still trailing Bobby Hurley by 31 at 1076.
At his current assist/game rate, he would get there with 4 more games. With one more BTT game and one NCAAT game "guaranteed", he's got two games at least. So he needs to make it to this Saturday or to the 2nd weekend of the tourney to get to 4.
But 16 in a single game certainly helps.
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You are smarter than this.
Here is some more math for you:
- #54 in NET
- #93 in KenPom
- #87 in Torvik (You usually cite this one)
Those are all BEFORE they LOST to a pathetic (#203 in NET/#195 in KenPom/#171 in Torvik) team.
I think that really @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) summarized my feelings very well here:They had a chance to get a charity bid that we specifically reserve for tallest midgets who spend the year beating up on patsies. They FAILED at that. Now they are thrown in with the rest of the non-Champions and their accomplishment of going 31-1 against the little sisters of the poor shouldn't even get them in the discussion because Indiana's accomplishment of going 18-14 required the Hoosiers to win 3 Q1 games and 3 more Q2 games. The Redskins RedHawks only won two Q2 games and ZERO Q1 games.
Oh, and lets talk about undefeated and "the math": Indiana was UNDEFEATED in Q3 and Q4 games. They went 5-0 in Q3 and 7-0 in Q4. Miami was NOT undefeated in such games because their loss to UMASS will be either Q3 or Q4 depending on how much UMASS moves.
You want to know who else is actually undefeated in Q3 and Q4 games unlike Miami who lost one of those?
- SMU is 11-0 in Q3 and Q4 and a bubble team
- Indiana is 12-0 in Q3 and Q4 and a bubble team that is NOT going to get in
- VCU is 20-0 in Q3 and Q4 and a bubble team
- VaTech is 11-0 in Q3 and Q4 and a bubble team
Here's some math for you.
- NONE of the bubble teams would have likely gone undefeated against Miami's schedule
- It is pretty unlikely that ANY team in a given year would go undefeated in the regular season
- If someone gave you odds of a particular team doing it in any given year, you could probably bet everything you own against it happening and feel pretty good doing it
So the idea that what Miami did is no big deal is obviously hogwash. Then it comes down to more esoteric things, like what do you value in sports. If you value the game and their results being important things that matter, then Miami is obviously in. If you watch a game and see the result and think: "well, that's less important than their WAB or their NET," then maybe they shouldn't. I know where I stand. All of these teams are midgets. It's just Miami did something special and the rest are also rans.
To me, winning is the most important thing. That's what it all comes down too. Yes, we have disparate schedules and we have tools to try figure that out, but if your tools lead you to throw out undefeated teams in favor of say, Auburn, then you should rely less on the tool.
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And Miami is more than welcome to play two or three teams with a pulse during their season.
They tried. Reached out to close to 20 power conference schools. No bites. A staffer at Illinois even wrote back and said they needed a few much worse opportunities before even considering Miami.
Even reached out to the flagship school in their own state. Did get a response. It was interesting because Miami was the second-place team in the MAC last year. Second-tallest midget and such. Somehow the sixth- and ninth-place teams from that conference made it on the schedule, a couple of Michigan schools. Curious that.
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They should play Dayton, Cincinnati and Xavier every year.
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Maybe I was giving you too much credit, maybe you aren't smarter than that?
Here's some math for you.
- NONE of the bubble teams would have likely gone undefeated against Miami's schedule
That isn't math/data, that is opinion.
Here's some math for you.
- It is pretty unlikely that ANY team in a given year would go undefeated in the regular season
That isn't math/data, that is opinion.
Here's some math for you.
- If someone gave you odds of a particular team doing it in any given year, you could probably bet everything you own against it happening and feel pretty good doing it
That isn't math/data, that is opinion.
Do you understand the difference between data and opinion?
So the idea that what Miami did is no big deal is obviously hogwash.
No, it isn't. Miami went 29-1 in Q3 and Q4 games. SMU, Indiana, VCU, and VaTech went a combined 54-0 in Q3 and Q4 games.
This is just comical:
- If someone gave you odds of a particular team doing it in any given year, you could probably bet everything you own against it happening and feel pretty good doing it
I just gave you four teams that all went undefeated in Q3/4 games. Do you want more? Here are a few more:
- Duke (also undefeated in Q2)
- Michigan "
- Arizona "
- Florida
- Illinois "
- Houston "
- Iowa State "
- Purdue "
- Michigan State "
- Nebraska "
- Louisville "
- Virginia
- TxTech
- Vanderbilt
- Alabama
- Arkansas "
- Kansas
- Tennessee
- St. Marys
- North Carolina "
- BYU
- Kentucky
- Ohio State
- Miami, FL
- UCLA
- Clemson
- SMU
- Indiana
- aTm
- VCU
- Baylor
- UCF
- Oklahoma
- VaTech
- Mizzou
That is a whole lot of teams that went undefeated against the crap portion of their schedules. That is data not opinion. Those teams ALL did exactly what Miami, OH FAILED to do. They beat all the crappy teams they faced. Miami didn't.
(I)f your tools lead you to throw out undefeated teams in favor of say, Auburn, then you should rely less on the tool.
Ah, nobody said this. As @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) already explained to you:
If you schedule terribly, maybe you need to win your conference tournament to get a spot. No matter how many Little Sisters of the Poor you beat up on. Because you can't argue "while they're 31-0!" when they wouldn't be close to 31-0 if they played anyone with a pulse.
And you also can't claim "they're undefeated so they should get in!" To be undefeated they'd have won their conference tournament and gotten in. They're not undefeated. They just lost. They were undefeated. And then they lost to a REALLY bad team. It's not enough to say they were undefeated in the regular season. Nothing matters until Selection Sunday. They're not undefeated on Selection Sunday.
Literally nobody in this thread is advocating excluding teams that are actually undefeated.
Do you understand the meaning of the word undefeated?
Here, I'll help you out or look at this link (https://www.dictionary.com/browse/undefeated) yourself:
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]undefeated
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.64)]British [/color]
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.64)]/ ˌʌndɪˈfiːtɪd /[/color][/font][/size][/color]
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.64)]adjective[/font][/size][/color]
- [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]not having been defeated
[/font][/size][/color]
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)][color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]the undefeated champion
[/color][/font][/size][/color]
You are the one making an emotional argument. I am the one making an argument based on data. You may not like that but your feelings don't change reality. The math/data says this isn't even a close call. Miami absolutely positively does NOT have a tournament quality resume and that isn't disputable. Back to actual data:
Here is some more math for you:
- #54 in NET
- #93 in KenPom
- #87 in Torvik (You usually cite this one)
It is not even close.
If you want to make an emotional argument for inclusion fine but at least be honest about what you are doing like @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) was when he first raised this possibility:
I know the metrics, but I have a hard time seeing a 1 loss Miami left out
He was observant enough to admit up front that it was a purely emotional argument because the data unequivocally says no. I specifically quoted Torvik as a courtesy to you because based on your past posts that is apparently your favorite ratings site. Please provide some modicum of courtesy to me in return and quit falsely claiming that there is a rational, mathematical or data-driven basis for your argument because there isn't.
You are making an emotional argument and arguing against math and data. At least have the decency to admit it instead of pretending data is on your side.
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They tried. Reached out to close to 20 power conference schools. No bites. A staffer at Illinois even wrote back and said they needed a few much worse opportunities before even considering Miami.
Even reached out to the flagship school in their own state. Did get a response. It was interesting because Miami was the second-place team in the MAC last year. Second-tallest midget and such. Somehow the sixth- and ninth-place teams from that conference made it on the schedule, a couple of Michigan schools. Curious that.
Not my problem and not the last team in's problem.
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For a change of pace to a topic that we probably all agree on:
Does anyone else just have trouble with the concept of a BTT Game in Chicago between East Coast Rutgers and West Coast UCLA?
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Not my problem and not the last team in's problem.
It seems a problem to the idea they’re welcome to do it. Which it seemed was your idea.
The last team in’s problems usually involve losing a mess of games. Anyway, gonna be interesting to watch.
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If you schedule terribly, maybe you need to win your conference tournament to get a spot. No matter how many Little Sisters of the Poor you beat up on. Because you can't argue "while they're 31-0!" when they wouldn't be close to 31-0 if they played anyone with a pulse.
This points to a certain curious place for certain top mid-majors.
It wasn't like Miami said "we're gonna schedule no one and ride this undefeated thing!!!!" No one can plan for undefeated in conference and they tried with more than a dozen power conference schools. No one bit. And they can't get a big school's DOBO on the phone and say "YOU WILL PLAY US." The other schools have agency, and they often don't want the smoke, embarrassingly enough (credit to Painter for being braver than that)
The thing with teams like this is they're basically impossible to engineer. They're functional accidents, unplannable and not what the coaches or programs ever want. I tend to think if the bottom of the bubble real cruddy, fine to reward doing something that remains pretty difficult, especially with a dang Dayton spot.
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It seems a problem to the idea they’re welcome to do it. Which it seemed was your idea.
I didn't actually say that they were welcome to but to be fair that was a reasonable inference. My position is that I just don't care how or why they ended up where they ended up. It makes no difference to me because, to me, this exercise isn't about being inclusive and giving everyone a chance. That part of the NCAAT is adequately handled by the 30-some auto-bids. This part (the at-large bids) is about picking the BEST teams period, full stop. How they got there is immaterial to me.
The last team in’s problems usually involve losing a mess of games to REALLY good opponents. Anyway, gonna be interesting to watch.
FIFY. I added the bolded part. In Lunardi's latest Auburn is the last team in and yeah they lost a mess of games. They are 4-12 in Q1, 3-2 in Q2, 3-1 in Q3, and 6-0 in Q4. So yes, they have a mess of losses but 14 of their 15 losses were in games tougher than any game on Miami's schedule.
Auburn has one Q3/4 loss just like Miami but unlike Miami they have seven Q1/2 wins which is seven more than Miami has.
Auburn has 15 losses and may well miss the tournament but my objection is that those were nearly all to very good teams and literally all of them were to teams better than the UMASS team that just knocked Miami out of the MAC Tournament. Their losses (NET) were:
- #2 Michigan N
- #3 Arizona A
- #10 Purdue N
- #16 Vandy H
- #17 Bama A
- #17 Bama H
- #18 Arkansas H
- #20 Tennessee A
- #20 Tennessee N
- #31 Georgia A
- #43 aTm H
- #52 Oklahoma A
- #59 Mizzou A
- #92 Ole Miss H
- #111 MissSt A
Literally all of those are better than Miami's neutral court loss to #203 Massachusetts.
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The thing with teams like this is they're basically impossible to engineer. They're functional accidents, unplannable and not what the coaches or programs ever want. I tend to think if the bottom of the bubble real cruddy, fine to reward doing something that remains pretty difficult, especially with a dang Dayton spot.
On this I completely agree and I even said upthread that:
(H)onestly if it was close and I was on the committee I'd vote to include them. I wouldn't vote for it as-is because it is NOT close.
I think your statement about a real cruddy bottom of the bubble is functionally the same thing as mine that I'd vote to include them if it was close. Yeah, if the bubble is so incredibly weak that there is a plausible data-driven argument for including Miami legitimately then I'd probably let the emotional argument carry the day and include them over a similarly bad team that didn't have that on their side.
The problem for Miami is that it just isn't close. The data unequivocally says no. There is no plausible data-driven argument for including them so they are left with ONLY the emotional argument.
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You are making an emotional argument and arguing against math and data. At least have the decency to admit it instead of pretending data is on your side.
I'm sorry, but I had to laugh at that. Again, the numbers don't lie. Undefeated regular seasons are rare. It's special to see one! Of course it is emotional. Sports are emotional. No one watches sports and because they need to put in numbers in a spreadsheet (except perhaps Purdue grads).
But again, the math is against you. To get around the FACT that NONE of the bubble teams would likely had the same regular season record against Miami's schedule, you have to cherry pick the games.
To get around the FACT that Miami's regular season was special, you have to pretend that it happens all the time.
The math here is one sided. How many teams have accomplished something that Miami did? I'm not going to do the equation, but less than .00001 percent? Compared to Auburn, which needed an overtime victory over #224th ranked Bethune-Cookman just to have a winning record. But I'm sure their NERD is better, so losing half their games is just fine.
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And Miami is more than welcome to play two or three teams with a pulse during their season.
I didn't actually say that they were welcome to
See, that's where I got that.
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I'm sorry, but I had to laugh at that. Again, the numbers don't lie. Undefeated regular seasons are rare. It's special to see one! Of course it is emotional. Sports are emotional. No one watches sports and because they need to put in numbers in a spreadsheet (except perhaps Purdue grads).
But again, the math is against you. To get around the FACT that NONE of the bubble teams would likely had the same regular season record against Miami's schedule, you have to cherry pick the games.
To get around the FACT that Miami's regular season was special, you have to pretend that it happens all the time.
The math here is one sided. How many teams have accomplished something that Miami did? I'm not going to do the equation, but less than .00001 percent? Compared to Auburn, which needed an overtime victory over #224th ranked Bethune-Cookman just to have a winning record. But I'm sure their NERD is better, so losing half their games is just fine.
If you are laughing it is only because you aren't smart enough to understand the difference between data and opinion.
I just listed four bubble teams that went 54-0 against Q3/4 opponents and Miami FAILED to win all of their Q3/4 games. Facts not opinions.
You just said that "the bubble teams likely . . ." Opinion not fact.
You said I cherry picked. Nope, I used the NCAA's NET categories. Facts not opinions.
Miami's undefeated regular season was special FOR THEM just like a High School team's undefeated regular season would be special FOR THEM. Neither of those things justify inclusion in the NCAA DI Tournament.
I'm not pretending that undefeated regular seasons happen all the time, I just don't care and I am also acknowledging the FACT that they did it against a bunch of crappy opponents. Facts not opinions.
Try using facts instead of opinions and you'll see that your argument falls short.
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On this I completely agree and I even said upthread that:I think your statement about a real cruddy bottom of the bubble is functionally the same thing as mine that I'd vote to include them if it was close. Yeah, if the bubble is so incredibly weak that there is a plausible data-driven argument for including Miami legitimately then I'd probably let the emotional argument carry the day and include them over a similarly bad team that didn't have that on their side.
The problem for Miami is that it just isn't close. The data unequivocally says no. There is no plausible data-driven argument for including them so they are left with ONLY the emotional argument.
They entered the day 21st in SOR, so we'll see if that holds. They are 35th in WAB. A bit low at 47th in KPI.
So the resume metrics are helping them for the moment, providing a plausible data-driven argument. Who know if it'll hold, but turns out it's there. If they were just dead on those, there wouldn't be much of a discussion, but for now there is. Suppose we'll see.
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See, that's where I got that.
I said teams with a pulse, you adjusted that to:
Reached out to close to 20 power conference schools.
Not all "teams with a pulse" are power conference schools. I don't know (and see above, I don't really care) but did they reach out to decent mid-majors?
Their OOC consisted of complete and total crap. They played not one but two schools that are so insignificant that I've never heard of them and ESPN doesn't even have a link for them (Trinity Christian and Indiana University East). There are plenty of "teams with a pulse" between Trinity Christian and the "power conference schools". I'm not saying that I wouldn't include them unless they played Duke, just that being literally 0-fer the season in Q1 and only 2-0 in Q2 is a BIG problem for me when the math unequivocally says no.
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You just said that "the bubble teams likely . . ." Opinion not fact.
No. This is false. It has nothing to do with opinion. Based on their fancystats you can calculate the chance each team would beat another team. You can then calculate how likely it is a team would go undefeated against any schedule, including Miami's. None of the bubble teams are likely to go undefeated against Miami's schedule.
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They entered the day 21st in SOR, so we'll see if that holds. They are 35th in WAB. A bit low at 47th in KPI.
So the resume metrics are helping them for the moment, providing a plausible data-driven argument. Who know if it'll hold, but turns out it's there. If they were just dead on those, there wouldn't be much of a discussion, but for now there is. Suppose we'll see.
I'm operating on the assumption that those, along with their NET, KenPom, and Torvik rankings will plummet on the basis of a neutral court loss to a 200+ ranked opponent.
Honestly, do ANY of the bubble teams have a loss as bad as losing a neutral court game to UMASS? I assume a few of them might but I'm not sure.
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No. This is false. It has nothing to do with opinion. Based on their fancystats you can calculate the chance each team would beat another team. You can then calculate how likely it is a team would go undefeated against any schedule, including Miami's. None of the bubble teams are likely to go undefeated against Miami's schedule.
Neither did Miami which is why this is a discussion. If they HAD gone undefeated then they'd get an auto-bid.
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Neither did Miami which is why this is a discussion. If they HAD gone undefeated then they'd get an auto-bid.
Well they did go undefeated during the regular season, which is what I am talking about.
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I said teams with a pulse, you adjusted that to:Not all "teams with a pulse" are power conference schools. I don't know (and see above, I don't really care) but did they reach out to decent mid-majors?
Their OOC consisted of complete and total crap. They played not one but two schools that are so insignificant that I've never heard of them and ESPN doesn't even have a link for them (Trinity Christian and Indiana University East). There are plenty of "teams with a pulse" between Trinity Christian and the "power conference schools". I'm not saying that I wouldn't include them unless they played Duke, just that being literally 0-fer the season in Q1 and only 2-0 in Q2 is a BIG problem for me when the math unequivocally says no.
Well that's a silly dodge, now isn't it? "But what about other midgets?" he protests. And if they had a few more midgets ... there wouldn't be much acquiescence. It's a challenge with that strain of logic, if they had a bit more or a bit more, they'll always be short for someone complaining. (The absolute body bag game, IU East and such, are their own sort of interesting side track, and if we want to talk about that separately, it's sort of interesting in all this)
The schedule was crap (and they were undefeated) in large part because teams like yours and mine were too chickenshit to schedule them. And if the answer is, "they just looked too good despite not being that good, and now that's the stain on their case," that is what it is, but it's OK to live like that.
It's funny, if you were less emotional about all this, it wouldn't me much of an argument, just a dull convo. But you get all riled up, and here we are.
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Took off today, all the games are bangers. Well, OSU might get run off the court but the other games are bangers. Supposed to be super windy so hopefully a tree doesn't fall on the house.
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I'm operating on the assumption that those, along with their NET, KenPom, and Torvik rankings will plummet on the basis of a neutral court loss to a 200+ ranked opponent.
Honestly, do ANY of the bubble teams have a loss as bad as losing a neutral court game to UMASS? I assume a few of them might but I'm not sure.
See, this one of the issues with talking about "data" when you don't understand the data.
Off the loss, they fell a couple spots in Torvik, stayed flat in KenPom, did drop 10 in NET.
In resume, they slipped six spots in KPI to 53, WAB was already updated and are 28th in SOR.
(As for the last question, strangely yes. TCU lost to New Orleans at home. NC State lost to GA Tech, about 25 spots better, at home)
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Took off today, all the games are bangers. Well, OSU might get run off the court but the other games are bangers. Supposed to be super windy so hopefully a tree doesn't fall on the house.
My 1 pm meeting is going to be ... not well focused on.
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Well, Wisconsin very nearly Wisconsined away its 18-point lead over Washington, but hung on for the win. Phew. Let's see how the three is flowing tomorrow against Illinois.
Extremely sloppy and complacent when it got to 18. It's almost like they quit.
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Why so much talk about Miami (OH) on the B1G Basketball Thread?
Miami (OH) would be maybe a 2 win team in this league.
Maybe.
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Why so much talk about Miami (OH) on the B1G Basketball Thread?
Miami (OH) would be maybe a 2 win team in this league.
Maybe.
Agreed and this is why it is silly to even consider including them.
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Well they did go undefeated during the regular season, which is what I am talking about.
Talk about it all you want, the committee will be looking at their entire resume not just a cherry picked portion.
There is probably some bubble teams that is undefeated on a particular day of the week or against teams with feline mascots or somesuch and that is as irrelevant as Miami-OH going undefeated against a portion of their schedule.
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got the golf and wind done yesterday - ready for some basketball today
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Well that's a silly dodge, now isn't it? "But what about other midgets?" he protests. And if they had a few more midgets ... there wouldn't be much acquiescence. It's a challenge with that strain of logic, if they had a bit more or a bit more, they'll always be short for someone complaining. (The absolute body bag game, IU East and such, are their own sort of interesting side track, and if we want to talk about that separately, it's sort of interesting in all this)
The schedule was crap (and they were undefeated) in large part because teams like yours and mine were too chickenshit to schedule them. And if the answer is, "they just looked too good despite not being that good, and now that's the stain on their case," that is what it is, but it's OK to live like that.
First, as I said above I don't care how their schedule ended up so bad. Not my, the committee's, nor the last team it's problem. I care about data not emotion and although you at least tried to challenge it, the vast weight of the data says no.
Second, Max's and your argument seems to be that they shouldn't be punished for their joke of a schedule because they made a few phone calls and got turned down. If I did care (I don't, see above) my answer would be: "Make more calls."
I don't think it is a dodge at all. They don't have to schedule Duke or Michigan nor even Wisconsin or Ohio State to improve their SoS and thus their rating. Playing two decent mid-majors instead of non DI Trinity Christian and Indiana East would have helped immensely.
The absolute body bag games are also, to me, a backstop against this sorta "we tried" argument because playing not one but two non-DI games isn't "trying".
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I'm making a data based argument but the fact that I make it strongly makes it emotional?
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See, this one of the issues with talking about "data" when you don't understand the data.
Off the loss, they fell a couple spots in Torvik, stayed flat in KenPom, did drop 10 in NET.
In resume, they slipped six spots in KPI to 53, WAB was already updated and are 28th in SOR.
I understand the data just fine. They are now (updated to include the loss):
- #64 in NET
- #87 in Torvik
- #93 in KenPom
That is not close to an at-large bid.
I should admit here that Torvik was already updated when I quoted it last night and I didn't realize that but it makes literally no difference because regardless of whether they were #87 and about to drop or #87 and done, they were not close either way.
I'll give you credit for at least trying to make a reason based argument for Miami rather than sticking your fingers in your ears and screaming "but undefeated for part of the season" as a wholly emotional argument like another poster.
That said I think you are reaching here. WAB and SOR obviously lean MUCH more heavily on record compared to NET/Torvik/KenPom and to me that is just bad data.
- If you picked based on NET they aren't close.
- If you picked based on Torvik (Max's favorite previously) they aren't close and wouldn't even be in if we took the best 68!
- If you picked based on KenPom, same as Torvik.
Apparently you went forum shopping and found a couple that maybe work for them.
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Well, OSU might get run off the court
Let's hope not. If the committee decides to let in a bunch of crappy mid-majors for emotional reasons the Buckeyes might need upsets today and tomorrow just to get an at-large bid.
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Talk about it all you want, the committee will be looking at their entire resume not just a cherry picked portion.
There is probably some bubble teams that is undefeated on a particular day of the week or against teams with feline mascots or somesuch and that is as irrelevant as Miami-OH going undefeated against a portion of their schedule.
Lol I respect your commitment to the bit. Hopefully the committee doesn't care about wins and losses and puts OSU in on brand value, which I'm told is even more important than whatever you did during the season.
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Talk about it all you want, the committee will be looking at their entire resume not just a cherry picked portion.
I'll leave this Miami-OH issue to the committee - I don't care
but, if Miami-OH does get in, I'd like them to be matched up with Nebraska ;)
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No. This is false. It has nothing to do with opinion. Based on their fancystats you can calculate the chance each team would beat another team. You can then calculate how likely it is a team would go undefeated against any schedule, including Miami's. None of the bubble teams are likely to go undefeated against Miami's schedule.
Yes. You can do that. And ultimately what you'll learn is...
Going undefeated in a manner like this is total crapshoot luck.
Yes, it's REALLY rare. I.e. I just did a quick calculation. 0.9 ^ 31 = 0.038.
You know what that means? If you're 90% likely to win every one of the 31 games in your regular schedule, you're only 3.8% likely to win them all.
It's not like they were just out there dominating everyone. Of those 31 games, 4 went to OT. Another 5 were won in regulation by one basket (4 games by 2 points, 1 game by 3 points). Meaning that as you got towards the end of each [close] game, the outcome was pretty close to a coin flip. The fact that all 9 of them were notched as W's is... Let's hear it... LUCK.
Now, you can say... "Well, clearly that team is clutch! They just know how to win in the end!"
Well, against UMass, they didn't. Game flow was similar in win probability.
(https://i.imgur.com/sribtGu.png)
Miami seemed to be in control all game, until a little over 2 minutes remaining. And then they couldn't pull it off.
An emotional narrative would be that they "choked". I don't like emotional narratives. I view these things as a lot more luck/chance than anything. I view winning 9 of 9 that were tight down the stretch as lucky, as the odds given the strength of the team would be closer to 5 or 6 of 9. And then for them to lose 1 of 1 down the stretch as unlucky, given that it's a team they were assigned a 75% win probability over at tipoff, so they should win 3 of 4. Well, this outcome was the other 1 of 4.
Is going "undefeated in the regular season" a pretty feel good story? Yeah.
Are the odds against other bubble teams going 31 for 31 against that schedule? Yeah, probably. Because to have greater than 50% odds to go 31 for 31 if each individual game was equal probability would require those games to be over 97% win probability, closer to 98%. (.98 ^ 31 = 53.5%)
However, over a lot of seasons there are going to be teams that do it. Going undefeated against a weak regular season schedule is a statistical anomaly, not an amazing accomplishment. And based on being now 64th in NET after the loss, it also doesn't appear to be a tournament-worthy resume.
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So Lunardi thinks the committee is so spinless that they'll include Miami based on "feels" and ignore the data.
Here is the math comparing Miami (Lunardi has them not even needing to go to Dayton, getting a #11 seed) and the eight teams closest to the cut-line (last four in, first four out):
(https://i.imgur.com/c2HhP1c.png)
Miami is dead last in this group in NET by six spots below the next lowest and 17 spots below the team ahead of them. Seven of the nine are clustered between 37-47 then Mizzou at 58 then Miami at . . . 64.
Miami is dead last in this group in Torvik ( @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=2269) 's favorite math up until it didn't suit his emotional purpose) by 35 spots below the next lowest. The eight legitimate bubble teams are clustered between 35-52 then there is a gap of 35 spots before we get to Miami.
Miami is dead last in this group in KenPom by 42 spots. The eight legitimate bubble teams are clustered between 37-51 then there is a gap of 42 spots before we get to Miami.
Then we always here that the committee considers Q1 and Q2 wins. Ok, lets look at this. @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=2269) isn't going to like this. Each of the eight legitimate bubble teams has at least two Q1 wins and none of them have less than six Q1/Q2 wins. Miami has ZERO Q1 wins and only two Q2 wins.
Then we always here that avoiding bad losses matters. Miami has a Q3 loss. Five of the eight legitimate bubble teams have zero Q3 losses while the other three have a grand combined total of just 4 Q3 losses but remember (see above) that the legitimate bubble teams all have at least one good (Q1) win to offset each of their bad (Q3) loss(es). Miami does not.
Finally we get to @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=2269) 's favorite part. Miami is "undefeated in Q4 games" at 15-0. Funny that doesn't look so difficult since the eight legitimate bubble teams are a combined 61-0 in Q4 games so contrary to his emotional bleating no, it actually isn't all that hard nor all that rare to win all your crappy games.
Just like Miami: VCU, Mizzou, SMU, Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn, Indiana, and New Mexico were all perfect on the year against Q4 opponents. The difference is that those eight legitimate bubble teams each also had at least 2 Q1 wins and at least 6 combined Q1/Q2 wins while Miami has ZERO Q1 wins and only 2 Q2 wins.
Max seems to have trouble understanding logic and reason so, as a public service I'd like to provide some education for you. As you look at the above chart, watch this educational video:
https://youtu.be/KTZ_ALU2Cn8?si=zhc9Z5MYq01R19s8
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Going undefeated against a weak regular season schedule is a statistical anomaly, not an amazing accomplishment.
This is my response to the 2023 Michigan football season
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Max seems to have trouble understanding logic and reason so, as a public service I'd like to provide some education for you. As you look at the above chart, watch this educational video:
Hey I can at least count. I refer you to this guy to help you understand.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/29/Count_von_Count_kneeling.png/250px-Count_von_Count_kneeling.png)
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This is my response to the 2023 Michigan football season
Nah. At least half of that season was cheating.
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Let's hope not. If the committee decides to let in a bunch of crappy mid-majors for emotional reasons the Buckeyes might need upsets today and tomorrow just to get an at-large bid.
Iowa had more to play for than Ohio State and yet the Buckeyes come away with the win, and will tip off Vs Michigan at the top of the hour. Beating Iowa gives Ohio State gives a strong finish to the season, winning four straight when they needed it the most. After losing to Iowa to drop to 17-11, I figured they were outside the bubble. But since then beating Purdue and two other bubble teams (Indiana and Iowa), the Buckeyes are firmly in the Tournament as a mid-range seed (along with UCLA).
Indiana is out and Iowa will be sweating it come Sunday.
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This is my response to the 2023 Michigan football season
If you really wanted to needle me, you'd say it's a response to Purdue's uncharacteristically strong football record against OSU.
Which would be 100% true, but I like the emotional narrative that we just somehow "have your number" more :57:
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Hey I can at least count. I refer you to this guy to help you understand.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/29/Count_von_Count_kneeling.png/250px-Count_von_Count_kneeling.png)
If you are referring to Miami's 31 wins I assure you that I can count them. The difference between us that you don't seem to have the capacity to do any evaluation beyond counting. The Count would be able to help you . . .
- One win over a body bag ah ah ah ah
- two wins over body bags ah ah ah ah
- three wins over body bags ah ah ah ah
- . . .
- fifteen wins over body bags ah ah ah ah
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Not a good start. At the first timeout the Buckeyes have 5 points on 2-7 shooting.
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only down 4
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However, over a lot of seasons there are going to be teams that do it. Going undefeated against a weak regular season schedule is a statistical anomaly, not an amazing accomplishment. And based on being now 64th in NET after the loss, it also doesn't appear to be a tournament-worthy resume.
Forgive me, but this seems like a very curious distinction.
Doing something statically anomalous in sports is by its nature accomplishing something difficult. You went and did it. A thing that is difficult to do was accomplished.
Now the answer might be that accomplishment doesn’t warrant fringe inclusion in the field, but this feels like it doesn’t make much sense. Michigan being 19-1 in the conference is an anomaly. The way they lost that one was also an anomaly. But both are accomplishments.
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St Louis getting smacked by George Washington. Will be interested to see if they can come back.
If not, VCU has to keep its stuff together to prevent a possible bid thief, although VCU could also maybe fall out.
Oklahoma has also started to fight its way onto the bubble with a late-season rally and an upset last night. If they pop Arkansas, might work their way to Dayton.
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Not awful, in the first half.
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Not awful, in the first half.
Definitely not. The offense did a lot of boneheaded things but really, defensively, they are legit improved. I thought they might play a lot of zone and hope Michigan couldn't shoot straight, but they've played pretty straight up and Michigan has had to work a lot. Really the story of the latter part of the season.
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Looks like St Louis has rallied.
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2 point game at the U4.
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https://twitter.com/Evan_Flood/status/2032482876432805901 (https://twitter.com/Evan_Flood/status/2032482876432805901)
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Winter isn't coming
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https://twitter.com/Evan_Flood/status/2032482876432805901 (https://twitter.com/Evan_Flood/status/2032482876432805901)
If he misses tournament time, I wonder if there will be discussion, maybe a little dumb about how he got hurt.
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Winter isn't coming
damn, I am hopin for a Badger upset
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First, as I said above I don't care how their schedule ended up so bad. Not my, the committee's, nor the last team it's problem. I care about data not emotion and although you at least tried to challenge it, the vast weight of the data says no.
Second, Max's and your argument seems to be that they shouldn't be punished for their joke of a schedule because they made a few phone calls and got turned down. If I did care (I don't, see above) my answer would be: "Make more calls."
I don't think it is a dodge at all. They don't have to schedule Duke or Michigan nor even Wisconsin or Ohio State to improve their SoS and thus their rating. Playing two decent mid-majors instead of non DI Trinity Christian and Indiana East would have helped immensely.
The absolute body bag games are also, to me, a backstop against this sorta "we tried" argument because playing not one but two non-DI games isn't "trying".
It is a dodge. If they have a few decent mid-majors, would the tone of these long posts change one iota? Nope. They could've won at OSU and Wisconsin and this convo would still be basically the same.
Now maybe the coach should've showed up in Columbus, threatened to beat up Diebler or something. But at a certain point, you try to get a team to pay you to play at their place, and they don't.
Now the bodybags are sort of interesting. You have to fill some kind of home schedule, as this is entertainment product with an in-person element. Those cost money, which you have less of without buy games. So you balance budgets the way that makes sense.
(Mentioning your other comment, it does feel like getting emotional and disdainful about all this weakens the argument. Complaining about this that and the other. A staid, simple argument that gives a bit of grace and acknowledges the asymmetry would make for a pretty short argument. Granted, it's all kind of a boiled down element of your larger vociferous belief that a 64-team tournament itself is in many ways bad)
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That said I think you are reaching here. WAB and SOR obviously lean MUCH more heavily on record compared to NET/Torvik/KenPom and to me that is just bad data.
- If you picked based on NET they aren't close.
- If you picked based on Torvik (Max's favorite previously) they aren't close and wouldn't even be in if we took the best 68!
- If you picked based on KenPom, same as Torvik.
The issue with using this as a base for data is that no one who is serious thinks they should pick teams like this. Neither Ken Pomery or Bart Torvik think that. And the NCAA built the NET, but clearly doesn't use it like that.
And argument built on data that's misunderstood is going to run you into trouble and get us farther afield.
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It's weird to just be like, the Badgers will likely lose and I'll watch and shrug.
UW has made a couple deep runs of late, which were the first two finalist trips since 2017. It didn't feel that long. And it's weird to look through the other ones between.
2018 - Bad Badgers fighting to not end the season, got one win, went tooth and nail with a much better MSU team
2019 - Worse than expected game against Nebraska, smushed by a much better MSU team after a sort of weird finish to the year
2021 - Badgers had been sluggish down the stretch, got pushed badly by a bad PSU team, then lost a close one to Iowa, after a horrendous run in close games.
2022 - Team dropped the ball in a season finale, with an injury to their star. They caught an uneven MSU team and just lost it late.
2023 - UW had basically played itself off the bubble despite good quad wins, was hoping for some kind of tournament boost. Ate the curb to a bad OSU team to seal the season.
This has less emotional investment than any of those. They beat the team they were supposed to, now they'll bow out and rest up.
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I think Fred Hoiberg should make Amare Bynum a nice NIL offer to move back closer to home next season
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Well, that was fast
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That's a lot of missed 3s...
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That's a lot of missed 3s...
Should keep shooting them.
Credit to Underwood for this, he has built an absolutely massive team of guys who can score and shoot.
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Rebounding is again a concern.
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End of the half was less crisp than you would’ve liked. But down 6 ain’t the worst.
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Rebounding is again a concern.
Considering Illinois is one of the very best rebounding teams in the country and UW is down is best big, it’s been a bit better than I hoped.
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I was doing a good job of ignoring this thing...now I'm glued to it. Damn.
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Forgive me, but this seems like a very curious distinction.
Doing something statically anomalous in sports is by its nature accomplishing something difficult. You went and did it. A thing that is difficult to do was accomplished.
Now the answer might be that accomplishment doesn’t warrant fringe inclusion in the field, but this feels like it doesn’t make much sense. Michigan being 19-1 in the conference is an anomaly. The way they lost that one was also an anomaly. But both are accomplishments.
That's a good point, but again it doesn't always mean that something rare is necessarily "hard", just that it's statistically unlikely.
As I mentioned, if you have a 97% win probability in 31 games, you have LESS than a 50% chance (38%) to go undefeated. But if that team plays three separate seasons all with the same probability, the expected number of undefeated seasons is three times 38%, or 1.14 undefeated seasons. Do it 10 times, and you're expecting between 3 and 4 undefeated seasons.
Individual game odds are going to be much lower than 97%, even if you're a fairly decent MAC school playing the Little Sisters of the Poor, but that doesn't mean that going undefeated is "hard" more than it's statistically unlikely.
Think of it this way. Flipping a coin 10 times in a row and it ending up heads 10 times in a row... That should happen roughly 0.1% of the time, or 1 out of 1000 attempts. But if you fill a large college football stadium with 100,000 fans and you have them each try it, you'd expect to get 100 of them to do it.
Does that mean flipping a coin 10 times in a row and getting heads all 10 times is "hard"? No. Flipping a coin is easy. It takes nearly no skill whatsoever. But we think getting 10 in a row is remarkable because it's rare.
And BTW... I think everyone is getting hung up on this "in the regular season" stuff. Why should we not include a conference tournament? The NCAAT selection committee doesn't release their brackets until all conferences have completed their conference tournaments. So they clearly think teams should be judged on performance after the "regular season" has concluded. And once you include that, Miami is no longer undefeated.
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Some free basketball in Chicago!
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foolish of the Badgers to not get a better shot at the end of reg
can't just hold the ball until 6 to shoot
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It is a dodge. If they have a few decent mid-majors, would the tone of these long posts change one iota? Nope. They could've won at OSU and Wisconsin and this convo would still be basically the same.
I don't know... I think there's a very good point here about trying to schedule a decent mid-major or two.
One of two things would happen:
- They'd win those games and now they'd actually have some quality wins that would boost their rankings (incl. NET).
- They'd lose one or more of those games and nobody would be saying "well look at their undefeated regular season" and it would be moot.
Right now they have two Q2 wins. One is a one-possession home win over #54 Akron. The other is a 7 point away win over #127 Wright State. The Akron game is literally the only game they've played against a top-100 NET team.
There are currently 19 teams in the NET top 75 from non-major conferences. If they'd played any one of them on the road and won, they'd be sporting a Q1 win.
You don't think we--or the NET rankings--would evaluate them differently if they had a Q1 win?
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That's a good point, but again it doesn't always mean that something rare is necessarily "hard", just that it's statistically unlikely.
As I mentioned, if you have a 97% win probability in 31 games, you have LESS than a 50% chance (38%) to go undefeated. But if that team plays three separate seasons all with the same probability, the expected number of undefeated seasons is three times 38%, or 1.14 undefeated seasons. Do it 10 times, and you're expecting between 3 and 4 undefeated seasons.
Individual game odds are going to be much lower than 97%, even if you're a fairly decent MAC school playing the Little Sisters of the Poor, but that doesn't mean that going undefeated is "hard" more than it's statistically unlikely.
Think of it this way. Flipping a coin 10 times in a row and it ending up heads 10 times in a row... That should happen roughly 0.1% of the time, or 1 out of 1000 attempts. But if you fill a large college football stadium with 100,000 fans and you have them each try it, you'd expect to get 100 of them to do it.
Does that mean flipping a coin 10 times in a row and getting heads all 10 times is "hard"? No. Flipping a coin is easy. It takes nearly no skill whatsoever. But we think getting 10 in a row is remarkable because it's rare.
And BTW... I think everyone is getting hung up on this "in the regular season" stuff. Why should we not include a conference tournament? The NCAAT selection committee doesn't release their brackets until all conferences have completed their conference tournaments. So they clearly think teams should be judged on performance after the "regular season" has concluded. And once you include that, Miami is no longer undefeated.
The comparison with the coin is a bit silly. Winning basketball games does take skill. Even against bad teams. If someone was trying to push the coin the wrong way, I’d give the coin a bit of credit.
Suppose the argument is that for teams that accomplish a certain amount, the conference tournament is treated with some fungibility. And the argument is that an undefeated regular season creates enough accomplishment to extend that particular thing.
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Badgers did get a gift with that foul call. It was still a steep climb for Illinois, but that was an unfortunate way to basically ice the game.
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Jesus, Wisconsin is gonna win this and Brad Underwood is going to lose his goddamn mind.
Edit: Erp…
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I kind of Wouldn’t have minded if Wisconsin lost and got more rest, but I guess I do like a nice win?
I mean, that was pretty fucking cool!
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Well, I thought the game was iced. Kudos to Illinois for even having the shot at the end. On to Michigan.
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beat Michigan, again!
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One thing we can say about Wisconsin:
NO QUIT!
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One thing we can say about Wisconsin:
NO QUIT!
In the middle of the game, I was like, “this is fine. Good effort. The other team is good.”
and by the end, I’m like “I guess? Sure why not.“
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I would say I was at the "why not" stage when they pulled to within 4. When they tied it I advanced all the way to LFG!
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The comparison with the coin is a bit silly. Winning basketball games does take skill. Even against bad teams. If someone was trying to push the coin the wrong way, I’d give the coin a bit of credit.
Winning basketball games does take skill. And like I said upthread, one can argue that for Miami to win 9 of 9 for those one-possession and OT games, it creates an emotional narrative that they're "clutch" or "they know what to do to win". Well, apparently if we're going to go with the emotional narrative, they forgot that skill against UMass.
So if they're that skilled at winning basketball games, where'd it go against UMass?
I find it a lot easier to believe that close games come down to a balance of skill / grit / coaching / and plain dumb luck. Plain dumb luck might explain the difference between Miami being 29-2 in the regular season and 31-0. But against their schedule, we're not having this conversation if they're 29-2 because their resume is crap, and their NET after the regular season wouldn't have been 54, it probably would have been 75. But two lucky bounces that get them to 31-0 and we are.
But they didn't get that lucky bounce against UMass. And the NCAAT selection committee doesn't base your resume only on the regular season.
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Winning basketball games does take skill. And like I said upthread, one can argue that for Miami to win 9 of 9 for those one-possession and OT games, it creates an emotional narrative that they're "clutch" or "they know what to do to win". Well, apparently if we're going to go with the emotional narrative, they forgot that skill against UMass.
So if they're that skilled at winning basketball games, where'd it go against UMass?
I find it a lot easier to believe that close games come down to a balance of skill / grit / coaching / and plain dumb luck. Plain dumb luck might explain the difference between Miami being 29-2 in the regular season and 31-0. But against their schedule, we're not having this conversation if they're 29-2 because their resume is crap, and their NET after the regular season wouldn't have been 54, it probably would have been 75. But two lucky bounces that get them to 31-0 and we are.
But they didn't get that lucky bounce against UMass. And the NCAAT selection committee doesn't base your resume only on the regular season.
But like...who cares? Obviously, luck has a big part of all sports outcomes. Sports are mostly just random number generators that we feel strongly about. All sports outcomes in the history of the world had a luck component to them.
The issue for me is that if you basically throw out the results in favor of...other stuff, you are saying the other stuff is what matters the most. But what matters the most is winning and losing, not NETS or QUADS or WABS or LUCK.
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Why would anyone expect Sam to be on the other side of this argument? He went to Miami. Of course he wants them to go to the NCAA tournament.
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I don't know... I think there's a very good point here about trying to schedule a decent mid-major or two.
One of two things would happen:
- They'd win those games and now they'd actually have some quality wins that would boost their rankings (incl. NET).
- They'd lose one or more of those games and nobody would be saying "well look at their undefeated regular season" and it would be moot.
Right now they have two Q2 wins. One is a one-possession home win over #54 Akron. The other is a 7 point away win over #127 Wright State. The Akron game is literally the only game they've played against a top-100 NET team.
There are currently 19 teams in the NET top 75 from non-major conferences. If they'd played any one of them on the road and won, they'd be sporting a Q1 win.
You don't think we--or the NET rankings--would evaluate them differently if they had a Q1 win?
I was in part speaking to the particular speaker, who I don't think would give such a team an inch. But it's an interesting conversation starter.
I don't know if they tried. I'd assume they did some. The incentives are probably a bit weird, as you want to be the road team, but if you're the home team, you're just playing a tough team with less upside. Again, they're not dial-a-games.
The second tricky part is, as you said, there are 19 teams (18 not counting themselves?). A chunk of those will be hard to predict. Right now, we're at 11 of those teams being repeats, and one of those would've been hard to predict because of a coaching change. So you need to call those 10 teams, one needs to want to have a low-upside home game, in part because Miami being as high as it is also an upset.
And the funny thing is all of this works backwards and implies you could build toward 31-1 with intent. Dumping resources into chasing fringy Q1 or Q2 chances for their own sake for a MAC team is an exercise in absurdity. The only way it could really matter involves winning every MAC game, and as far as I can tell, that hadn't been done since a 12-0 team in 1958. You don't plan to be undefeated. It's barely a figment in one's imagination, so you don't get twisted up trying to engineer that right game. In fact, you usually hunt for games you should lose, but alas. I'd agree they should've found a better mid-major to play, but the only reason to do so is because playing better games no one watches is cool, not for any resume reason.
(I think the Net would be different, but not notably. I think some people would evaluate them differently, but for the most part, I think people would stick with what they already think. The problem with dribs and drabs on the resume is you don't change things just by getting one)
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MSUs defense has been very different the past month. Cronin is whining about the fouls, but MSU isnt fouling because they arent guarding. UCLA shot over 65% in the first half, over 50% from 3, with just 4 turnovers.
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Winning basketball games does take skill. And like I said upthread, one can argue that for Miami to win 9 of 9 for those one-possession and OT games, it creates an emotional narrative that they're "clutch" or "they know what to do to win". Well, apparently if we're going to go with the emotional narrative, they forgot that skill against UMass.
So if they're that skilled at winning basketball games, where'd it go against UMass?
I find it a lot easier to believe that close games come down to a balance of skill / grit / coaching / and plain dumb luck. Plain dumb luck might explain the difference between Miami being 29-2 in the regular season and 31-0. But against their schedule, we're not having this conversation if they're 29-2 because their resume is crap, and their NET after the regular season wouldn't have been 54, it probably would have been 75. But two lucky bounces that get them to 31-0 and we are.
But they didn't get that lucky bounce against UMass. And the NCAAT selection committee doesn't base your resume only on the regular season.
I think you're reading a bit of what you think into what I'm saying.
I don't think they should go because they have some magic "skill" that makes them win every close game. And I totally agree they were lucky to not be a few games worse, as are a lot of teams.
But they did the thing. I've watched world series champions where I say "that's not the best team, but they played well late and won the games for dumb reasons." And they get a trophy and such.
I think the reason people grip onto the regular season because there is something sad and weird about the conference tournament thing often.
I think the difference between each side is also needlessly overcomplicated. Some people think that doing this thing that is very hard, and even requires enough luck, is enough of an accomplishment (with a few solid resume metrics) to warrant a fringe spot over a team we all think is not very good. And others say no, that isn't the case. The regular metrics are enough, and the undefeated small conference team would likely lose head-to-head. Both are legit outlooks and neither needs to be complicated much past that.
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MSUs defense has been very different the past month. Cronin is whining about the fouls, but MSU isnt fouling because they arent guarding. UCLA shot over 65% in the first half, over 50% from 3, with just 4 turnovers.
I feel like I'm surprised by this. But MSU often kinda biffs out and it doesn't matter.
I'm also a bit impressed with UCLA, since for whatever reason I don't think they're that good.
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This kind of sums up the amount of care all parties should have for the annual sack race
https://twitter.com/i/status/2032651490297270575
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Why would anyone expect Sam to be on the other side of this argument? He went to Miami. Of course he wants them to go to the NCAA tournament.
Also I'm usually right so I'm on that team as well
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I feel like I'm surprised by this. But MSU often kinda biffs out and it doesn't matter.
I'm also a bit impressed with UCLA, since for whatever reason I don't think they're that good.
some teams play well early in the season and fade, others seem to come on late in the season, some teams make runs in tournaments
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Why would anyone expect Sam to be on the other side of this argument? He went to Miami. Of course he wants them to go to the NCAA tournament.
I honestly was not aware of that.
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some teams play well early in the season and fade, others seem to come on late in the season, some teams make runs in tournaments
Nebraska?
It was a nice season. Just not quite ready for prime time. That will come, so long as the coach sticks around.
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yup, I think they got hot and a bit lucky early - overachieved
I'm not going to complain - a much better season than I had dreamed about
would really cap it off to get a win in the dance
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https://twitter.com/LucasAtLarge/status/2032572431538245981 (https://twitter.com/LucasAtLarge/status/2032572431538245981)
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I don't know what changed, but Purdue really looks locked in. I didn't want to say anything after the Northwestern game, because, well, it's Northwestern. But they just controlled the Nebraska game from tip-off until time ran out.
Now they manage to avoid MSU and take on UCLA today instead. This team has fooled me in the past this season, but if they play like they have the last two days, they'll be playing again tomorrow.
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Braden Smith at 1,055 career assists now trails Bobby Hurley by only 21, at 1,076.
Smith had 16 against Northwestern and 10 against Nebraska, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that he could get the 22 he needs to take the record even if the team only plays two more games. 4 games would almost assuredly get him there, so if Purdue wins today and in R64, he should easily take it. If the team only plays 3 more games, it gets a little dicey, but with his season average of 9 per game, he'd still be a favorite to get there if they only play 3 more.
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Nick Boyd no doubt looked at that voting for All-B1G.
It's motivating him.
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Braden Smith at 1,055 career assists now trails Bobby Hurley by only 21, at 1,076.
Smith had 16 against Northwestern and 10 against Nebraska, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that he could get the 22 he needs to take the record even if the team only plays two more games. 4 games would almost assuredly get him there, so if Purdue wins today and in R64, he should easily take it. If the team only plays 3 more games, it gets a little dicey, but with his season average of 9 per game, he'd still be a favorite to get there if they only play 3 more.
He's also set the BTT career assists record at 76 and will add to it tonight. That record is likely going to stand for a very long time.
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It feels weird that I’m gonna end up with screening the Wisconsin-Michigan game and Vermont-UMBC game. Because of the stakes of this Wisconsin game are not very high for me emotionally, but I kind of wanna watch a kid who left Wisconsin and plays for Vermont and also I do really like seeing the small schools, clinched their spot.
This is going to be a strange hour of overlap.
EDIT: I read the official bracket, so I'm and hour off on when that game starts.
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It feels weird that I’m gonna end up with screening the Wisconsin-Michigan game and Vermont-UMBC game. Because of the stakes of this Wisconsin game are not very high for me emotionally, but I kind of wanna watch a kid who left Wisconsin and plays for Vermont and also I do really like seeing the small schools, clinched their spot.
This is going to be a strange hour of overlap.
He really didn't leave. He was pushed. Terrible practice attitude and refused to put the pipe down.
4 high schools. On his 3rd college team. Meh. He's the team's best player so maybe he's grown up. Still, I wouldn't want him back and I don't think he'd be welcome.
I'd certainly welcome Daniel Freitag back, and I think Gard would take him. He's gonna get paid somewhere, even though he's been hurt.
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So... this clown thinks Illinois would go 7-1 in the next 8 against Wisconsin. This right here is a tool with no toolbox.
https://twitter.com/TheFieldOf68/status/2032616691557962025 (https://twitter.com/TheFieldOf68/status/2032616691557962025)
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He really didn't leave. He was pushed. Terrible practice attitude and refused to put the pipe down.
4 high schools. On his 3rd college team. Meh. He's the team's best player so maybe he's grown up. Still, I wouldn't want him back and I don't think he'd be welcome.
I'd certainly welcome Daniel Freitag back, and I think Gard would take him. He's gonna get paid somewhere, even though he's been hurt.
I mean, he left. He left because the staff didn't want him, but they had him leave.
I honestly don't think he's a Big Ten player. And that's OK. Hopefully he stays there another year and does well at his level.
Will be interested with Freitag. That jump in level can be a real mess, so will have to see what the coaches think. It's nice he managed to make it work.
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The Gus Bus was not mature enough to handle the temptations of Madison.
Maybe he is now, maybe not. Not sure how much of a party scene Vermont has.
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The Gus Bus was not mature enough to handle the temptations of Madison.
Maybe he is now, maybe not. Not sure how much of a party scene Vermont has.
Also not good enough defensively.
I kind of hope he just stays there. Maybe the economics favor him moving up (though I'm a bit skeptical), but it seems like it wouldn't end in on-court joy. Vermont probably doesn't have much, but maybe enough to avoid that.
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The MEAC court has 4 three point lines. :o
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The MEAC court has 4 three point lines. :o
OK, I'm kind of confused.
So they'd be HS, NCAA, pros. The other one would be ... NAIA or WNBA? It's also weird because usually you'd assume a specialized court? But this is just the general one with stickers?
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Well that's not great. Gayle for Michigan got an ankle rolled as a Badger was diving (foolishly) for a fumbled ball.
I'm still kind of ambivalent about UW trying to play four games in four days considering the biggest emotional thing for the program would be ending the Sweet 16 drought. But I also like when my team wins games. Ahh well.
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This is not the game I was expecting
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Lendeborg reminds me of Miles Bridges where the talent kind of led to him playing a bunch of 3, but you kinda feel like you could unleash him even better as a 4 (or 5 for Lendeborg).
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OK, I'm kind of confused.
So they'd be HS, NCAA, pros. The other one would be ... NAIA or WNBA? It's also weird because usually you'd assume a specialized court? But this is just the general one with stickers?
Just odd
(https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/458f064/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1346x707+0+55/resize/1200x630!/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fewscripps-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fea%2F62%2F63a7679d4a32be59c2d9fe7e8c7b%2Fscreenshot-2026-03-11-at-10-52-36-pm.png)
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Not a clean close for Wisconsin. That zone is rough. Boyd was weirdly nonchalant trying to score after the make.
Tied, could be worse, or better. Whatever.
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Just odd
(https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/458f064/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1346x707+0+55/resize/1200x630!/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fewscripps-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fea%2F62%2F63a7679d4a32be59c2d9fe7e8c7b%2Fscreenshot-2026-03-11-at-10-52-36-pm.png)
Are you there?
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Not a clean close for Wisconsin. That zone is rough. Boyd was weirdly nonchalant trying to score after the make.
Tied, could be worse, or better. Whatever.
Wisconsin 1-2 FT.
Michigan 8-9 FT.
Need to even that up.
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Are you there?
No, it came on after the Vermont game.
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Wisconsin 1-2 FT.
Michigan 8-9 FT.
Need to even that up.
If you gotta go right at the beast like that, it's gonna be a long day. Michigan is third in 2-point defense, 15th in lowest foul rate.
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Gonna be interesting to see how Michigan closes this out.
Their guard play has always felt a bit less good than the team overall. They'll likely need that to close out a tight one like this.
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Gonna be interesting to see how Michigan closes this out.
Their guard play has always felt a bit less good than the team overall. They'll likely need that to close out a tight one like this.
Or they'll get a kickout 3 off an offensive board after some post dominance because that's extra Michigan.
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No quit.
I wouldn't mind an extra day of rest, to be honest (and a Friday game that is not West).
But these guys want to win and I'm gonna support that.
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That said, F**k Michigan.
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You had one job Wisconsin
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Florida's losing to Vandy
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Ok, that game was fun. And I don't have to worry about rest and such.
Gutsy team, for sure.
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Well if Purdue wins today, then thank you Wisconsin for tiring the hell out of Michigan :72:
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Florida's losing to Vandy
Florida is a .500 (or less) team in the B1G.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan State would wipe the floor with that team, and Ohio State and UCLA would give them trouble too.
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We need a word for freshman years like Morez Johnson Jr. and Caleb Swanigan. Like the seasons where you say "this guy isn't ready, but he's showing a lot, and I bet he'll settle his game and be a beast next season."
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St. Louis goes down. Technically not a bid thief spot yet, but VCU has to beat St Joe's and Dayton to avoid a potential one (though a loss may cost VCU, since they're at the edge).
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We need a word for freshman years like Morez Johnson Jr. and Caleb Swanigan. Like the seasons where you say "this guy isn't ready, but he's showing a lot, and I bet he'll settle his game and be a beast next season."
Amare Bynum had one of those for the Buckeyes. Hopefully the sophomore year is also with the Buckeyes.
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FFS. I walk in from us going out to order a new table and walk in the house to see Purdue is up 58-48. Now only 64-62.
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Amare Bynum had one of those for the Buckeyes. Hopefully the sophomore year is also with the Buckeyes.
I almost wrote him in there, but forgot his name and had to go somewhere. He's def in that group.
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Purdue pulls it out.
With 9 assists, Smith moves up to 1,064, and needs 12 to share and 13 to own the record. Given that Purdue is playing again tomorrow and will obviously be in the NCAAT R64, he is likely to take the record in the R64 game.
That said, I hope he plays 7 more games from here on out.