CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on March 12, 2025, 09:04:17 PM
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Well I was certainly hoping not to start this thread for another week or two but Iowa put the last nail in the coffin for Ohio State's 24/25 season so I'm moving on.
I do have some observations that I'd like to ask for feedback from other tOSU fans but also and especially non-tOSU fans. Sometimes it is easier to see clearly when you aren't emotionally attached/invested.
First, my perception was that tOSU's big men just flat out sucked. They got these 5* guys from blue-bloods Dook and Kentucky and the upside was sky-high. I honestly wasn't expecting THAT, but not THIS either. I thought they'd at least be decent.
Second, I know that all teams experience this occasionally but it seemed to me that Ohio State had a much higher than normal proportion of games where they just imploded down the stretch. Against Indiana in Bloomington, for example, they led for something like 35 minutes and by as much as double digits but in the end the number next to IU was bigger. Not sure why and maybe I'm distorting my view because those are so annoying so what are some neutral takes?
Third, and this is a very daming criticism of Coach Diebler but it felt to me that the whole was less than the sum of the parts. The parts were not great, but it felt like the parts were easily a Tournament team and the whole is about to host NIT games.
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you could have put this off for a week or three, maybe 5
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you could have put this off for a week or three, maybe 5
Eh, I'm done with 24/25, you?
I wasn't able to watch last night (Peacock) so I was reading some coverage of Ohio State's loss last night and it really hit on two of the three themes that I mentioned earlier.
First on the big men:
Ohio State's 5* Big men Sean Stewart and Aaron Bradshaw combined for 31 minutes in the Iowa game and grabbed 10 rebounds which is good but not exactly remarkable. In those 31 minutes they had only one block and contributed basically nothing on offense with a grand combined total of two freaking points on (combined) 1-6 shooting.
The above was bad already but then I read the 11Warriors (tOSU site) account (https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-basketball/2025/03/154230/ohio-states-big-ten-tournament-run-ends-in-one-game-as-buckeyes-fall-to-iowa-77-70) and noticed in the game notes at the end that "Star Iowa center Owen Freeman, the team's leading scorer and rebounder, was out with an injury on Wednesday." Wait, what? You mean to tell me that Iowa's starting star center missed the game? Ohio State's big men were this bad against a backup? This is beyond pathetic.
How can you possibly only shoot 1-6 when you should be dunking and shooting from point blank range?
Second, imploding down the stretch:
This game was tied at 61 with 7:25 to go. To that point it had been a mostly back-and-forth affair. Ohio State didn't score again until 3:26 to go. If you are keeping track at home that is one second shy of a four minute stretch of zero freaking points. By the time Ohio State did score again it was to cut a seven point deficit to five and the die was cast. Ohio State did get within two with 00:45 to go but Iowa answered with a three that put it out of reach and ended Ohio State's season.
This just feels like deja vu. Late game collapses against multiple opponents are the cause of Ohio State's third straight NCAA Tournament absence.
Just a few examples:
- Ohio State led 49-41 with 9:37 to go in the IU game and lost by 6
- Ohio State led almost the entire Illinois game and had a 68-63 lead with 7:43 to go but didn't score again until 2:28 at which point the bucket merely cut the deficit to 8.
Finally, Ohio State shot 22.7% from three in the BTT loss. For a team that lives-and-dies by the three, that isn't going to get it done.
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UNL was done three, maybe 5 weeks ago
if they were ever started
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UNL was done three, maybe 5 weeks ago
if they were ever started
They got started for sure. When Nebraska played Ohio State the first time (Lincoln) both teams appeared to be on the bubble and Nebraska's win pushed them to 16-8/6-7. At that point they looked like a good bet to make the Tournament. The loss to Maryland didn't really hurt and the road win over Northwestern on February 16 put Nebraska at 17-9/7-8 sill looking like a solid bet to make the Tournament. Obviously the five-game losing streak since then kiboshed that but they were in the hunt until late February. Ohio State lasted a couple more weeks.
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Eh, I'm done with 24/25, you?
I wasn't able to watch last night (Peacock) so I was reading some coverage of Ohio State's loss last night and it really hit on two of the three themes that I mentioned earlier.
First on the big men:
Ohio State's 5* Big men Sean Stewart and Aaron Bradshaw combined for 31 minutes in the Iowa game and grabbed 10 rebounds which is good but not exactly remarkable. In those 31 minutes they had only one block and contributed basically nothing on offense with a grand combined total of two freaking points on (combined) 1-6 shooting.
The above was bad already but then I read the 11Warriors (tOSU site) account (https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-basketball/2025/03/154230/ohio-states-big-ten-tournament-run-ends-in-one-game-as-buckeyes-fall-to-iowa-77-70) and noticed in the game notes at the end that "Star Iowa center Owen Freeman, the team's leading scorer and rebounder, was out with an injury on Wednesday." Wait, what? You mean to tell me that Iowa's starting star center missed the game? Ohio State's big men were this bad against a backup? This is beyond pathetic.
How can you possibly only shoot 1-6 when you should be dunking and shooting from point blank range?
Second, imploding down the stretch:
This game was tied at 61 with 7:25 to go. To that point it had been a mostly back-and-forth affair. Ohio State didn't score again until 3:26 to go. If you are keeping track at home that is one second shy of a four minute stretch of zero freaking points. By the time Ohio State did score again it was to cut a seven point deficit to five and the die was cast. Ohio State did get within two with 00:45 to go but Iowa answered with a three that put it out of reach and ended Ohio State's season.
This just feels like deja vu. Late game collapses against multiple opponents are the cause of Ohio State's third straight NCAA Tournament absence.
Just a few examples:
- Ohio State led 49-41 with 9:37 to go in the IU game and lost by 6
- Ohio State led almost the entire Illinois game and had a 68-63 lead with 7:43 to go but didn't score again until 2:28 at which point the bucket merely cut the deficit to 8.
Finally, Ohio State shot 22.7% from three in the BTT loss. For a team that lives-and-dies by the three, that isn't going to get it done.
Freeman has been out for a while.
But yeah, OSU assembled some not impressive bigs.
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They got started for sure. When Nebraska played Ohio State the first time (Lincoln) both teams appeared to be on the bubble and Nebraska's win pushed them to 16-8/6-7. At that point they looked like a good bet to make the Tournament. The loss to Maryland didn't really hurt and the road win over Northwestern on February 16 put Nebraska at 17-9/7-8 sill looking like a solid bet to make the Tournament. Obviously the five-game losing streak since then kiboshed that but they were in the hunt until late February. Ohio State lasted a couple more weeks.
well, scraping into the tournament with a crap seed playin as an underdog with little chance for a tourney win isn't much to get excited about
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anyone want to coach the Gopher Basketball program
you will get 4 years and you dont have to do much just make sure the guys are not being horrible in the community
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I wish Freddie Hoiberg would take that position
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Freeman has been out for a while.
But yeah, OSU assembled some not impressive bigs.
I could be wrong and I'm interested in neutral takes but as I see it, Ohio State's guards were actually pretty good*. This catastrophe with the bigs is THE major problem. I don't really watch enough to be able to have a decent guess as to whether this is a talent problem or a coaching problem but it needs to get fixed ASAP.
*I don't mean "National Championship good" nor even necessarily "B1G Championship good" but I think they were good enough to contend in the B1G. The Bigs, however, looked more like they belonged to a mediocre MAC team.
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well, scraping into the tournament with a crap seed playin as an underdog with little chance for a tourney win isn't much to get excited about
I'm honestly surprised to hear this take from you. Even as an Ohio State fan I view a Tournament berth as "not nothing" considering Nebraska's history I would have expected it to be a cause of celebration for fans in Lincoln.
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hoops just isn't a big deal for most Husker fans
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Owen Freeman in the portal after Fran got let go. Averaged 16.7 points and 6.7 rebounds, plus nearly 2 blocks per game.
He will be in high demand, although the defense needs a lot of work
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Well, not happy to be here, but that's life sometimes. UW has an interesting rebuild, but should return some solid pieces. Time to look closer.
The departures
John Tonje - One-year transfer wonder. Was one of the couple best players in the league. Will be missed.
Max Klesmit - Really nice shooting guard who helped at point and wing. Had a rough shooting year, but was just really valuable to have out there. Good Badger.
Steve Crowl - Four-year starting center. Never quite dominant, but often pretty good, if not the most consistent. Gonna be weird not having him out there.
Carter Gilmore - A former walk-on whose offense had folks calling for less of him, but whose defense always meant he found a role. Figured out some shooting this season and became an almost starter. Also held down 4 spot well.
Kamari McGee - A transfer development story. Was almost useless when he arrived from UWGB. Was a nice change-up ball-handler and spot up shooter last year. Also the only true point in the rotation.
Markus Ilver - Wasn’t in the rotation. Spent four years, seeming like a guy who could maybe find a way to contribute at a thin spot, but he never did.
Rotation (hopeful) returners
John Blackwell - He's a strong scoring wing/shooting guard who can be a point. Ideally he's not having as much of that work this year, but he's a top guy regardless.
Nolan Winter - Versatile center type who platooned last year while playing a bit of power forward. I kind of think he slots in at center and they go from there.
Jack Janicki - Kind of do-everything low-usage wing in the mold of a lot of UW shooting guards of yesteryear. Ideally he's a glue guy backup, but if he starts, wouldn't be a killer.
Xavier Amos - Was brought in to start at the 4, but wasn't consistent and played about 10 minutes per game. Has the skills to be a great starter, inconsistent starter or nice bench option, and he controls a lot of that. Mild transfer candidate because of how this year went.
Non-rotation guys who might have ability
(These guys are in that zone where we don't know if the staff has already decided they will have it, don't have it or might have it. Some could be future starters, some could be told they'll likely never have a role)
Cam Hunter - Last year's point guard transfer. He was supposed to be a functional starting option, but barely got in and looked lost when he did. An injury was a factor there, but I'm kind of skeptical he's a B1G rotation guy.
Daniel Freitag - Well regarded point guard recruit who was expected to fight for a rotation spot as a freshman. Came in completely not ready, and this year was basically a wash. Still has ability, but on the staff to decide what's there.
Jack Robison - Supposed to be a nice shooting wing. Probably not big enough to be an undersized stretch 4, so probably in the same space as Janicki. He all but redshirted, so we'll have to see if he/they think he could pop this year or next.
Riccardo Greppi - Big beefy backup center type they added late last year. Always kind of a project, so we'll see if they want to keep trying with him.
Chris Hodges
Chris Hodges has been at UW for four years, despite it being pretty clear he wouldn't be a thing after year 2. He stayed on the roster that season because attrition/portal challenges meant they didn't need the spot. Last year, they moved some money around to honor his scholarship. I'd assume his spot is contingent on a bunch of folks leaving.
Incoming freshmen
Zach Kinziger - Seems like a classic UW shooting guard. Will be interesting to see if he's the kind who can play 10-15 MPG off the bat. Would be helpful.
Will Garlock - 7-foot center with range out of the Madison area. Probably will be good at some point. Big key is if he's ready to be an 8-10 MPG player as a true freshman. If so, allows some flexibility elsewhere.
Hayden Jones - A 6-foot-7 international wing, seems like more a power wing, maybe with some shooting (curious if down the line he ends up in that 4 spot UW likes).
Portal wants
Point guard - UW was fine with a combined effort last year, but if you can get a guy who can really fill the role, you'd love to have it.
Big - This is an interesting one. Were I them, I'd want a 4/5 type who can work the perimeter, but also anchor a lineup. Granted, those are hard to find. If they like Winter/Garlock/Greppi at center, then maybe another 4 to round things out with Amos.
Wing - They know they have Janicki and Blackwell (who might help at point). Maybe you hope some combo of Robison, Jones and Kinziger helps there, but considering the last two wing adds were All-Conference guys, definitely worth trying to sell that again.
Wildcard - There were some insider comments they could try for a fourth guy. Maybe another frontcourt guy if you add a true center. Maybe just beef up the perimeter more. Maybe just add talent.
Other questions
Some Badger fans think they should proceed with Blackwell as a de facto point. This is insane to me, but maybe Gard likes it?
Which freshmen project as Year 1 "solid backups"? If Garlock or Kinziger look ready to be a rotation guys, it changes some of how you portal shop.
Do any non-rotation guys step up? If Freitag, Robison or Greppi can be even 8 MPG guys, it changes a lot of dynamics. Hunter at this point feels like mediocre insurance/a flyer.
Any portal surprises? UW fans are lusting after Owen Freeman, as the Badgers were in that recruitment. That seems deeply unlikely to me, but one curveball would change a lot.
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Minnesota hires alum Niko Medved, who some thought would get the job last time.
Finished 2nd in the Mountain West this year, one spot behind Richard Pitino ;)
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Well, not happy to be here, but that's life sometimes. UW has an interesting rebuild, but should return some solid pieces. Time to look closer.
Welcome even though I wish it had taken you another week to get here.
Grrr!
I had a long post similar to yours but for Ohio State all typed up and then Chrome froze and I lost it.
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Minnesota hires alum Niko Medved, who some thought would get the job last time.
Finished 2nd in the Mountain West this year, one spot behind Richard Pitino ;)
Weird trivia. The 3 new head coaches hired into the Big Ten this year were the last 3 head coaches hired at Drake University.
Niko Medved was the head coach at Drake right before Darian DeVries. Medved left after 1 year at Drake to go to CSU, and is now going to Minnesota.
Darian DeVries was the head coach at Drake right before Ben McCollum. Devries left for WVU and is now going to Indiana
Ben Mccollum was the coach at Drake this year and is now going to Iowa.
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https://twitter.com/TravisBranham_/status/1904309915839066286
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I hope Villanova gets exactly what they deserve in poaching a coach who is willing to skip a mandatory team dinner, the night before the Sweet 16, to talk to them about a job. Hope he does the same to them, and then takes the UNC job
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Well, I guess we can officially get this puppy started now.
Wabbit Season!
Duck Season!
Wabbit Season!
Duck Season!
PORTAL SEASON!!!! Blam!!!
The portal is open and we've already got several Big Players already making moves.
On the Purdue side, Myles Colvin, Berg, and Brian Waddell are gone (and Furst has graduated). Looks like they have picked up Oscar Cluff from South Dakota State.
Michigan appears to have lost both Pippen and Donaldson. Wolf likely gone to the NBA.
MSU has lost Holloman. That seems like a surprise.
Iowa has lost, what? The whole team?
Same with Indiana.
These roster turnovers are really starting to affect my love of the game.
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I already started this thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/2025-2026-b1g-basketball-thread/) because my team's BB season ended a few weeks before your team's BB season.
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Ah. Sorry. Didn't see it on the front page.
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Just saw the MSU Booker has entered the portal.
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Just saw the MSU Booker has entered the portal.
Holloman is the more surprising one. Booker didnt even play by the end.
The you have this
https://twitter.com/ChrisVannini/status/1907128111080075482
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Tre Donaldson in the portal as well, lol
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Badgers lost two of the four guys a figured might leave. One was a veteran transfer from last year who wasn’t healthy. The other was a well-regarded freshman the staff told at least a year away.
It’s interesting to see spots where coaches still have some degree of control vs. not. Badgers looking at 3-4 spots open, which isn’t too bad. Probably two more young projects and one transfer who had an up and down year to keep an eye on.
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so. there's hope for Hoiberg?
I don't think so
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@ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) what's the story with Holloman going to the portal, I was surprised.
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Seems as simple got one shot to get a big payday, and hes not going to get it as a backup PG.
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Just saw the MSU Booker has entered the portal.
He was never going to work out at Michigan State. In my opinion, he's not a P4 player. Far too soft. My kid, who is 6'5" and was an excellent, albeit not very athletic, high school player kicked Booker's ass just by being tough and physical with him. When undersized, small school high school players push you around, it doesn't bode well for Big Ten success. He should go somewhere like Butler or Loyola and be a solid rotation player.
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Seems as simple got one shot to get a big payday, and hes not going to get it as a backup PG.
Outside of how weird that’s going to look on a resume, that’s honestly one of those that makes a level of sense.
you stick around for three years. You’re not good enough to hold onto the starting spot (having someone benched, and you replace them only for you to in turn get benched). if your coach isn’t gonna pay you to be a valuable rotation player , then maybe you do look around.
I do wonder if there’s a situation where the coach might say “if you can’t find a better offer, we would love to have you back.“, But I know coaches don’t particularly like that behavior.
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I think he would be totally welcomed back, but it sounds like his agent already got him his money, and it won't really be an open recruitment.
Yeah, this is one of those that only feels weird given how recent this all is. He's a rotational piece, and a captain. But he's a backup on a very good P5 team. He could probably start at 75% of P5 programs. And hell, given how crazy it is now, I could see him starting at a very good school. If MSU didn't have Fears, Holloman would be a perfectly acceptable starting PG. But he's not REALLY a PG, and there are increasing rumors that Richardson is coming back for his sophomore year, so he likely won't be starting next year either.
I don't know what MSU's total NIL commitment is, rumors are it's top 12ish. But keeping around good 4 year reserves is a luxury almost no school can afford next year. because it's not just him. If you match what do guys like Carson Cooper do? Is it a locker room issue? Does he then leave to get an equivalent offer? I don't feel sorry for coaches, they are well compensated. But I don't blame the ones who don't want to do it anymore either.
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He was never going to work out at Michigan State. In my opinion, he's not a P4 player. Far too soft. My kid, who is 6'5" and was an excellent, albeit not very athletic, high school player kicked Booker's ass just by being tough and physical with him. When undersized, small school high school players push you around, it doesn't bode well for Big Ten success. He should go somewhere like Butler or Loyola and be a solid rotation player.
Yeah, he was a low top 100 kid, who had a growth spurt, and everyone just kind of assumed he was going to be this elite stretch 4. He never was able to defend or rebound. He wasn't that good of a shooter. And it seemed like he was struggling to grow into his new body. I think there's a good player in there, just maybe not with the physicality of being a big man in the Big Ten
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-basketball/2025/03/155432/ohio-state-center-aaron-bradshaw-enters-transfer-portal-after-one-year-with-buckeyes
I don't know how much NIL the Buckeyes spent on Aaron Bradshaw but it was a complete waste. He was a 5* hped recruit to Kentucky where he was underwhelming as a freshman in the 23/24 season then came to Ohio State where he averaged 6 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 0.7 blocks as a sophomore in 24/25.
The Buckeyes also apparently swung and missed on Xavier Forward Dailyn Swain.
If anyone knows where I can find it, a website that simply tracks all the coming and going for Ohio State (and other schools but I'm obviously primarily concerned with Ohio State) would be helpful. Every time I try to type out something about Ohio State's status I get lost because I have to look up each player individually to try to figure out who is staying then look for internet rumors about possible additions.
Short version, leaving:
- SR G Meechie Johnson to the Portal to USCe (played at tOSU then USCe then tOSU now back to USCe)
- JR G Evan Mahaffey to the Portal to Akron (played at PSU then tOSU now Akron)
- SR G Micah Parrish to graduation.
- SR G Ques Glover to graduation.
- SO C Aaron Bradshaw to the Portal.
- SO C Austin Parks to the Portal. He couldn't get minutes from Bradshaw/Stewart/Njegovan so probably not a big loss.
I *THINK* that is all the known departures.
Additions:
- SO G Taison Chatman from injury.
- SO G Gabe Cupps from the Portal from Indiana. He has only one year of experience due to missing nearly all of 24/25 with a torn meniscus.
- FR(to be) G Dorian Jones a 4* HS Recruit who was recently named Ohio's "Mr Basketball".
- FR(to be) C A'mare Bynum a 4* HS Recruit out of Missouri.
By my count tOSU is down four guards and two centers and up three guards and one center so net they are -1 G and -1 C.
According to 247 Ohio State's class is #4 in the B1G and #29 nationally. Michigan is #1 in the B1G. Not to rain on Michigan's parade but, as I see it, these rankings are meaningless until final because one MAJOR Portal addition could probably push almost any team in the league ahead of Michigan. Furthermore, you really need to look at it as a "net" thing. Who knows what kind of money is being offered by our schools in the Portal which seems like a glorified auction.
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Maryland basketball hires Buzz Williams:
https://twitter.com/OdjHoops/status/1905680981572370697
(https://i.imgur.com/6zTuijn.png)
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Purdue's Camden Heide to the portal.
Losing Colvin was bad, but losing both hurts a lot.
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Purdue's Camden Heide to the portal.
Losing Colvin was bad, but losing both hurts a lot.
Hmmmm, that's a curious one to me.
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Purdue's Camden Heide to the portal.
Losing Colvin was bad, but losing both hurts a lot.
really surprised at Heide going in. Disappointing for sure.
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Maryland basketball hires Buzz Williams:
https://twitter.com/OdjHoops/status/1905680981572370697
(https://i.imgur.com/6zTuijn.png)
A&M is probably just a bad basketball school. We're like most other football centric schools, nobody really gives a shit about BB. Surprised it hasn't been said, but I think we lost our last coach (who at least won the SEC in BB) Mark Turgeon to Maryland as well.
Buzz probably reached a ceiling here at A&M, but he went out this year with a whimper. Gave up a couple of games to bad teams where we were winning handily, and played like complete crap in 3-4 other games that we should have easily won.
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I think he would be totally welcomed back, but it sounds like his agent already got him his money, and it won't really be an open recruitment.
Yeah, this is one of those that only feels weird given how recent this all is. He's a rotational piece, and a captain. But he's a backup on a very good P5 team. He could probably start at 75% of P5 programs. And hell, given how crazy it is now, I could see him starting at a very good school. If MSU didn't have Fears, Holloman would be a perfectly acceptable starting PG. But he's not REALLY a PG, and there are increasing rumors that Richardson is coming back for his sophomore year, so he likely won't be starting next year either.
I don't know what MSU's total NIL commitment is, rumors are it's top 12ish. But keeping around good 4 year reserves is a luxury almost no school can afford next year. because it's not just him. If you match what do guys like Carson Cooper do? Is it a locker room issue? Does he then leave to get an equivalent offer? I don't feel sorry for coaches, they are well compensated. But I don't blame the ones who don't want to do it anymore either.
A team like MSU this year has to be tough in the current era. They seemed to platoon at like 3-5 spots. That’ll be hard to hold together.
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Back end of UW bench may be cleared out. Sounds like the four-star freshman point was at least another year away. Transfer who was never healthy left, as did a guy who was allowed to hang on with the roster (UW, still trying not to directly cut kids). Rumors a late add project big is in that mix to depart.
I don’t think I’m the most concerned, but we’ll see.
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Now I know that I don't care about BB at A&M. I had the coaches mixed up, Turgeon never coached A&M in the SEC. He left in 2011, Billy Kennedy was our coach when we won the SEC. I had literally forgotten all about him, and he was one of the best coaches we ever had.
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A&M is probably just a bad basketball school. We're like most other football centric schools, nobody really gives a shit about BB. Surprised it hasn't been said, but I think we lost our last coach (who at least won the SEC in BB) Mark Turgeon to Maryland as well.
Buzz probably reached a ceiling here at A&M, but he went out this year with a whimper. Gave up a couple of games to bad teams where we were winning handily, and played like complete crap in 3-4 other games that we should have easily won.
I *THINK* that the reason Bama has improved dramatically of late is mostly tied in with the modern NIL/Portal system. There is a LOT more money in CFB than there is in CBB so any of the FB Helmets or near Helmets that choose to can spend a fraction of their FB Cash on BB and become at least decent at CBB.
If I had to guess, I would predict that over the next decade or so the FB powers will gain BB success and some of the BB Blue Bloods may find it hard to keep up.
Also, the football schools haven't generally been nearly as bad at BB as the BB powers have been at FB. Ohio State is probably #1 in BB success among FB schools all-time but Michigan, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, and some others aren't too far behind. Here are top FB programs from CFN (https://collegefootballnews.com/college-football/ap-college-football-poll-greatest-programs-all-time), based on all-time AP finishes with all-time BB ranking from the AP via Yahoo (https://sports.yahoo.com/ap-poll-college-basketball-rankings-022230492.html):
- Ohio State, 10
- Alabama, 37
- Oklahoma, 22
- Notre Dame, 16
- Michigan, 13
- USC, 64
- Texas, 44
- Nebraska, 122
- Penn State, 116
- Tennessee, 44
- Georgia, 113
- LSU, 46
- Florida State, 46
- Auburn, 66
- Florida, 43
Your own aTm Aggies are #23 in football and #108 in BB so they more closely fit the mold you identified than most of the football powers.
Of the top-15 all-time football programs three are also top-16 in BB (#10 tOSU, #13 Michigan, and #16 Notre Dame). Most of the rest have at least a decent BB history with the big exceptions being Nebraska, Penn State, and Georgia. Also note that this year's F4 includes two top-15 all-time FB Schools (#14 Auburn and #15 Florida) and that this year's E8 included those two plus two more (#2 Bama and #10 Tennessee) so I think the FB schools in general are already improving their CBB stock.
Doing this the other way around shows that while the FB powers are generally at least decent at BB, that is NOT true in the reverse. Here are the top BB schools with their FB rankings:
- Kentucky, 61
- North Carolina, 40
- Dook, 44
- Kansas, 64
- UCLA, 18
- Louisville, 62
- Arizona, 69
- Indiana, 68
- Michigan State,
- Ohio State, 1
- Syracuse, 46
- Cincinnati, 72
- Michigan, 5
- Illinois, 49
- Villanova, 86 (Villanova is ranked right behind Iowa Pre-Flight which only existed for a few years during WWII.
Of the top-15 all-time BB programs, Ohio State (1) and Michigan (5) are far-and-away the best at FB. Next is UCLA (18) then UNC (40).
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Now I know that I don't care about BB at A&M. I had the coaches mixed up, Turgeon never coached A&M in the SEC. He left in 2011, Billy Kennedy was our coach when we won the SEC. I had literally forgotten all about him, and he was one of the best coaches we ever had.
He missed the tournament six times in eight years?
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He missed the tournament six times in eight years?
Are you asking me or telling me ? I have no idea. I only remember that he had several pretty good seasons here and we won ( co-champions) the SEC in BB.
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Also, I despise the whole notion of the NCAA tournament being some kind of high water mark. 64 teams or whatever, you could have a 32 team tournament and have the exact same final 4 99% of the time.
I remember a few years ago A&M was left out of the tourney after a dismal start to the season but a very strong 2nd half. Anyways, we go on to the NIT and nearly win the damn thing. I think we played in the championship game. I remember thinking I would much rather win the NIT than be a mediocre team in a field of 64 where you would probably only make it to the 2nd round.
Either way, I just never cared much for BB on any level.
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I don't think it's a high water mark, it's sort of a minimum standard mark. I view making the tournament like making a bowl game. It means you were at least mediocre.
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Nebraska’s first transfer portal addition of the 2025 cycle is officially in the books, as Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort announced his commitment to the Huskers on Friday.
The 6-foot-7 wing took his first portal visit to Lincoln last week and also visited Illinois this past weekend. Ohio State had also been in the mix, as was a potential return to the Hawkeyes.
“Nebraska was one of my first calls,” Sandfort said. “Fred (Hoiberg) called me pretty much right away, and I knew it was going to be a place I wanted to look at again just from my previous relationships. Obviously, I’m really close with Fred. I grew up going to his camps (at Iowa State), so there was a really tight relationship there.
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I don't think it's a high water mark, it's sort of a minimum standard mark. I view making the tournament like making a bowl game. It means you were at least mediocre.
I think, depending on your program, it isn’t necessarily an annual minimum, but it’s definitely a big dividing mark. Like if you are a mediocre program like South Carolina or something, making it at least once every three years and more often than not twice every three years is a lot of job security.
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Badgers at a transfer from Virginia, Andrew Rhode.
Interesting player. Was a highly productive lead guard at a low Major. Transferred to UVA and was terrible two years ago. Last year he was a decidedly good spot up three-point shooter and handed out a lot of assists.
He’s 6-6, so it will be interesting to see if he spends more time as a wing, or doing some point stuff. Or if they can recruit a set or talent where he ends up being a very nice sixth man.
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the Huskers are a less than mediocre program and if they're not making the dance, Hoiberg should be gone!
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For Ohio State, making the Tournament is a minimum standard.
Matta did marvelous things at Ohio State. He made two F4's and an NCG. He won multiple league titles including a bunch in a row and at one point he had (IIRC) four or five straight S16's. He missed the Tournament twice and wasn't given the opportunity to miss it a third time.
Holtmann was a disaster at Ohio State but the catalyst to get rid of him was when it became apparent that the Buckeyes were about to miss the Tournament for the second straight year.
Buckeye coaches don't have to make it EVERY year, but they are on notice after one miss and generally gone after a second consecutive miss.
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I think, depending on your program, it isn’t necessarily an annual minimum, but it’s definitely a big dividing mark. Like if you are a mediocre program like South Carolina or something, making it at least once every three years and more often than not twice every three years is a lot of job security.
Yeah, I guess making a bowl is probably a little easier than making the tournament. I guess making the NCAA or NIT (under the old format) is probably on par with making a bowl.
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Yeah, I guess making a bowl is probably a little easier than making the tournament. I guess making the NCAA or NIT (under the old format) is probably on par with making a bowl.
I do think the bowl and tournament are for the majority of big programs a “head above water line.”
If a lot of programs are at least bowling most of the time, the coach is in OK shape. If you’re making the tournament basically every year, you’re in pretty good shape. And only a few programs have really high standards for making deeper runs.
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For Ohio State, making the Tournament is a minimum standard.
Matta did marvelous things at Ohio State. He made two F4's and an NCG. He won multiple league titles including a bunch in a row and at one point he had (IIRC) four or five straight S16's. He missed the Tournament twice and wasn't given the opportunity to miss it a third time.
Holtmann was a disaster at Ohio State but the catalyst to get rid of him was when it became apparent that the Buckeyes were about to miss the Tournament for the second straight year.
Buckeye coaches don't have to make it EVERY year, but they are on notice after one miss and generally gone after a second consecutive miss.
Yep. For Purdue, making the tournament is a minimum standard as well.
Painter had a four year stretch (07-08 through 10-11) where he finished first or second in the B1G. In those four years he made the S16 twice despite losing Hummel to season-ending injury twice. He was a young coach and was clearly a winner.
Then he missed the tourney two years in a row, was on the hot seat, and fans wanted him gone.
I firmly believe that the only reason he kept his job is that I think he went in to the AD and said "Here are the mistakes that I think I've made that got us here, and here is my plan to fix those mistakes." But a third year I'm 100% sure would have tanked him.
You just don't miss the tournament at programs like this. And if you do, you sure as HELL don't do it twice in a row.
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I firmly believe that the only reason he kept his job is that I think he went in to the AD and said "Here are the mistakes that I think I've made that got us here, and here is my plan to fix those mistakes."
(https://i.imgflip.com/9prdpl.jpg)
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Yep. For Purdue, making the tournament is a minimum standard as well.
Painter had a four year stretch (07-08 through 10-11) where he finished first or second in the B1G. In those four years he made the S16 twice despite losing Hummel to season-ending injury twice. He was a young coach and was clearly a winner.
Then he missed the tourney two years in a row, was on the hot seat, and fans wanted him gone.
I firmly believe that the only reason he kept his job is that I think he went in to the AD and said "Here are the mistakes that I think I've made that got us here, and here is my plan to fix those mistakes." But a third year I'm 100% sure would have tanked him.
You just don't miss the tournament at programs like this. And if you do, you sure as HELL don't do it twice in a row.
To fill in info on Ohio State / Matta, there did not appear to be anything equivalent to what you explained between Painter and the Purdue AD. Then Matta swung and missed on a few recruits and it just appeared that things were not going to turn around and that was that.
With Holtmann there wasn't as much leash because he didn't have any notable accomplishments prior to his missed Tournaments. Painter had those good years BEFORE he missed two straight. Matta had an even higher level of success* so when he missed a couple Tournaments I think the AD would/should have given him time to get right except that it just didn't look like there was any kind of plan.
*Matta's success:
Matta started at Ohio State for the 2004/5 season. They didn't go to the Tournament his first year but they did have a HUMONGOUS upset win over previously undefeated and #1 ranked Illinois in the last game of the regular season. Then, he had a 10 year run that would be good even at a Blue Blood (years are ending/Tournament year):
- 2006: B1G Champs, NCAA R32
- 2007: B1G Champs, B1G Tournament Champs, NCAA CG
- 2008: NIT Champs - We got screwed not getting a NCAA bid but made the best of it.
- 2009: NCAA
- 2010: B1G Champs, B1G Tournament Champs, S16
- 2011: B1G Champs, B1G Tournament Champs, S16
- 2012: B1G Champs, F4
- 2013: B1G Tournament Champs, E8
- 2014: NCAA
- 2015: R32
In ten years that is:
- 5 B1G Championships
- 4 B1G Tournament Championships
- 9 NCAA Appearances (and an NIT Championship the year we got screwed)
- 5 S16's including four straight from 2010-2013
- 3 E8's
- 2 F4's
- 1 NCAA CG Appearance
After the 2012/13 season I truly believed that we (Ohio State) had found what I refer to as "our Izzo". Matta was still under 50 and I thought he was a guy who would lead us to the promised land (Ohio State hasn't won a BB NC since Bobby Knight was a backup on the 1960 team) and keep our program among the best in the nation for decades.
Then things deteriorated. The Buckeyes were middling in the league the next three seasons (5th, 6th, 7th place finishes). They still made the Tournament the first two of those years but they were one-and-done in 2014 and 1-1 in 2015. Then they missed the Tournament altogether in 2016 and in 2017 they weren't even in the bubble conversation and it was all over.
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*Matta's success:
Reminiscing because I'm missing it because Ohio State BB has been crap for a decade now:
Matta's best two teams in terms of banners were clearly the Oden/Conley NCG team in 2006/07 and the F4 team in 2011/12. Both of those teams won the B1G Regular season title (2011/12 was a co-Championship) and they both made it to the B1G Tournament CG with the 06/7 team winning and the 11/12 team losing. Matta also had an E8 team in 2013 that was pretty good.
The teams above were good and had deeper NCAA runs but I will always believe that Matta's best team was the 2010/11 team. They finished the regular season 29-2/16-2 and won the B1G by two games over Purdue. Their only losses were both on the road to the B1G's second (Purdue) and third (Wisconsin) place teams. Not only that but they avenged both losses handily at home:
- They lost in Mackey by 13 but beat Purdue in Columbus by 23
- They lost in the Kohl Center by four but beat Wisconsin in Columbus by 28
The team then won the B1G Tournament and entered the NCAA Tournament at #1 in the polls at 32-2.
Something that @SuperMario (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1596) asked about recently, these were the NCAA games that I attended in Cleveland. Ohio State just obliterated #16 UT-San Antonio in the first round and #8 George Mason in the second round.
Funny story about GMU:
George Mason had made a deep run to the F4 as a #11 seed in the 2006 NCAA Tournament. At the arena in Cleveland a few years later in 2011 for the NCAA opening round games a lot of the George Mason fans were wearing T-Shirts that had "We are this year's George Mason" printed on them. It was a neat idea for a T-shirt but their fans were oddly confident for considering their second round opponent was the #1 team in the nation. Going into the second round game between Ohio State and George Mason the impression I got from the GMU fans was that they not only thought that their team could win, but they seemed to think it was reasonably likely that their team WOULD win. Ohio State just beat the living daylights out of them. The Buckeyes literally doubled them up in the first half and led 52-26 at halftime. Then the Buckeyes played a motley collection of backups, walk-ons, mascots, and cheerleaders in the second half and still outscored them 46-40 en-route to a 32 point 98-66 win.
The Kentucky loss in the 2011 NCAA Tournament is probably the most painful tOSU BB loss for me because that team could have won it all. In the S16 they just couldn't shoot. Some of that is a credit to Kentucky's defense, of course. Obviously Kentucky's defense was a bit better than George Mason's but the Buckeyes missed plenty of open looks as well. In spite of an unbelievably bad shooting night, the Buckeyes had a shot in the air to win the game at the buzzer. Unfortunately that shot missed and that ended the season for what was, IMHO Matta's best team and quite possibly the best team ever at Ohio State.
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To fill in info on Ohio State / Matta, there did not appear to be anything equivalent to what you explained between Painter and the Purdue AD. Then Matta swung and missed on a few recruits and it just appeared that things were not going to turn around and that was that.
With Holtmann there wasn't as much leash because he didn't have any notable accomplishments prior to his missed Tournaments. Painter had those good years BEFORE he missed two straight. Matta had an even higher level of success* so when he missed a couple Tournaments I think the AD would/should have given him time to get right except that it just didn't look like there was any kind of plan.
Full disclosure: I have no inside knowledge. I'm going based on what I saw, and a lot of what was reported on the Purdue fan blogs at the time.
IMHO what I think Painter did is admit not that he'd missed on recruits--but he'd hit on the wrong ones. For as young as he was, Painter is an old-school coach. Doesn't suffer fools or prima donnas. Some of his public statements around that time was that he'd chased STARZ instead of trusting his gut and finding "Purdue guys". Which then got him pilloried by the portion of the fandom that worried he'd self-ceiling'd the program by not setting his recruiting sights on the guys who could really move the needle.
I think it's also possible that he could have leaned on the distraction of his divorce during those two seasons, which was a situation that was already concluding.
I obviously don't know the Matta situation, but he was a lot older AFAIK. I don't know if he would have gone to the AD with a sense of contrition, like it's believed Painter did. And obviously Matta didn't have the OSU legacy sort of thing that Painter did, who played under Keady and was basically picked as the "heir in waiting" for Keady at an age FAR younger than you'd ever expect a Purdue coach to take the reins. I do think that had something to do with it... Like a "we invested in you knowing you were young and not experienced, so we'll accept that you're learning from your mistakes--just don't let it happen again" sort of thing. Matta likely wouldn't have been offered the same grace by a school as he didn't have the personal history to warrant it.
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All makes me feel better about Wisconsin...although I would like to see them advance beyond the second round.
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Yeah , making the NIT/NCAA is about as difficult as making a bowl. But in football the cut line is higher. Making an NCAA tournament is worth a lot more than an NIT. But everything under the CFP is about the same. If you have three straight 8-4 seasons, thats essentially the same as threee straight 6-6 seasons. But that essentially the difference between three straight second round exits and three straoght NITs
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If you have three straight 8-4 seasons, thats essentially the same as threee straight 6-6 seasons.
In terms of raw outcome, that’s probably true. In terms of general program vibe/coach security at most programs, I bet it’s not.
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(https://i.imgur.com/rtZj0vP.jpeg)
Someone needs to show this quote about college basketball do the decision-makers in college football.
It's from Jay Bilas' article about how he got flack for picking all #1 seeds this year, even knowing that it's almost never all #1 seeds.
He's an expert and/or spends tons of time on it and knows it's unlikely, but felt they'd all make it to the Final 4. But he also knows we're LUCKY to have the four best teams in it. He knows it rarely happens and that the formatting pushes against it.
Why in the holy hell devise a system in which you're LUCKY to have the best 4 teams playing it off to determine the champion?!? Why would you ever copy such a system?!? This is a fantastic argument against it.
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Why in the holy hell devise a system in which you're LUCKY to have the best 4 teams playing it off to determine the champion?!?
How are you sure that the four #1 seeds are the best 4 teams?
After all, you criticize pollsters all the time for merely arranging teams by number of losses. That includes the CFP committee, who are all supposed to be experts. You just assume that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is infallable and the four #1 seeds are always the best four teams in the tournament?
What if a #2 or #3 seed is actually a better team, but ran through a rough stretch during the regular season, and didn't have the resume to be a #1? Is it a travesty if they actually win the tournament because they weren't a #1 seed coming into it?
And if you *do* think the Selection Committee is infallible, why have a tournament at all? Why not declare the top #1 seed the national champion? After all, if they can be completely trusted to know who the best 4 teams are, why can't they be trusted to know who the best 1 team is?
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How are you sure that the four #1 seeds are the best 4 teams?
After all, you criticize pollsters all the time for merely arranging teams by number of losses. That includes the CFP committee, who are all supposed to be experts. You just assume that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is infallable and the four #1 seeds are always the best four teams in the tournament?
What if a #2 or #3 seed is actually a better team, but ran through a rough stretch during the regular season, and didn't have the resume to be a #1? Is it a travesty if they actually win the tournament because they weren't a #1 seed coming into it?
And if you *do* think the Selection Committee is infallible, why have a tournament at all? Why not declare the top #1 seed the national champion? After all, if they can be completely trusted to know who the best 4 teams are, why can't they be trusted to know who the best 1 team is?
Well, when you have them seeded, that's one thing. Then you get an expert picking them to all advance, because he views them as the best teams, and that's pretty good. So a group (committee) + expert(s) in agreement. Those seedings and predictions are based on a full season of 35 games or so. Maybe just have the 1-seeds play it off (hey, we had that in football!)
Your idea about crowning a national champion without a tournament is a great idea. Thank you.
vs
having a massive tournament in which upsets are inevitable. 6 rounds of 1-off games to advance.
Cinderellas, buzzer-beaters, exciting stuff.
And it's precisely what Bilas says it is: a spectacle
It's not a good method of which to determine the best team. It's a good method to get attention.
No, college football should not mimic it.
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attention is the goal
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Well, when you have them seeded, that's one thing. Then you get an expert picking them to all advance, because he views them as the best teams, and that's pretty good. So a group (committee) + expert(s) in agreement. Those seedings and predictions are based on a full season of 35 games or so. Maybe just have the 1-seeds play it off (hey, we had that in football!)
All I'm saying is that you think obviously this year it was right. But what about last year. Only two #1 seeds made it the Final Four. Only three #1 or #2 seeds advanced to the Elite Eight. Yet 12 of the #1-4 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen... So clearly the earlier rounds were mostly chalk.
Is that an indication that the tournament is broken because two of them didn't advance? Or is it perhaps evidence that maybe the selection committee is NOT quite good enough at this to say that we should just have the four #1 seeds duke it out and leave everyone else out of it? Maybe with ~330 teams that mostly don't play each other, it's not exactly easy to identify the four best teams?
Your idea about crowning a national champion without a tournament is a great idea. Thank you.
I'd love it in football. Make it a beauty pageant. I'm cool with that.
Sad it'll never happen, and it's going the wrong direction. That's one area we can agree.
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All I'm saying is that you think obviously this year it was right. But what about last year. Only two #1 seeds made it the Final Four. Only three #1 or #2 seeds advanced to the Elite Eight. Yet 12 of the #1-4 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen... So clearly the earlier rounds were mostly chalk.
Is that an indication that the tournament is broken because two of them didn't advance?
It's a combination of imperfect seeding, sure, but also that upsets are inevitable.
Fewer games = fewer upsets
The seedings are what they are, but at least they're based on a sample size of 35 games. The sin is in having 1-game rounds to determine a champion. When you're getting 8 seeds and 11 seeds making final 4s, that's less about seeding and more about the 1-game-and-you're-out design of the damn thing.
All I'm saying is that college basketball has a very poor system for determining it's champion, attention be damned, and that college football should obviously not copy it.
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He was never going to work out at Michigan State. In my opinion, he's not a P4 player. Far too soft. My kid, who is 6'5" and was an excellent, albeit not very athletic, high school player kicked Booker's ass just by being tough and physical with him. When undersized, small school high school players push you around, it doesn't bode well for Big Ten success. He should go somewhere like Butler or Loyola and be a solid rotation player.
Wow, UCLA for $1.5 million. Good for him. Maybe he figures it out, but Mick Cronin doesn't seem like the type who doesn't care if his bigs rebound or defend
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Michigan lands the #1 player out of the portal, a big from UAB.
Dusty May said he didn't want to run a portal program, but the problem is now, how can you not when you take a new job? He said he had to lean on the portal this year, or he wouldn't have had a roster, which is true. But unless you commit to tough times, and building from scratch, once you make that first team a portal team, you need to keep going back there because all of the guys he brought in are now gone, so his returning roster looks as bad as it did a year ago. Unless you had your job pre portal, you almost have to be a portal team, because you inherited nothing. And now that teams like Michigan, St. John's, and Louisville did what they did, and won quickly, I don't think the option of "patience because we don't want to be a portal team" is an option
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#9 for Florida is a massive douchebag. He is out there throwing elbows while simultaneously whining about every whistle
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I guess he's the only one.
So Florida doesn't have to play Duke? I'll take it.
*EDIT* You guys have a 6-page 25-26 basketball thread?!?! Jesus.
Exhibit 193483491 on how we're different.
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https://twitter.com/Verbose_Dutch/status/1909069662299512987
(https://i.imgur.com/2eXdo7Q.png)
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https://twitter.com/Verbose_Dutch/status/1909069662299512987
(https://i.imgur.com/2eXdo7Q.png)
Cool. my team’s new point guard is very experienced.
(Also, next year there won’t be that many kids with COVID years left, and the year after, they’ll be close to extinct)
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Hey, if you're never going to sniff the NBA, might as well milk the college NIL money as long as you can.
Besides, a lot of people go to college for 7 years.
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Cool. my team’s new point guard is very experienced.
(Also, next year there won’t be that many kids with COVID years left, and the year after, they’ll be close to extinct)
Sure, but the number of kids challenging NCAA years-of-eligibility rules in court, is going to start increasing.
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Besides, a lot of people go to college for 7 years.
I know, they're called doctors.
https://youtu.be/UOsQ2epsI2M?si=nLuHqpfQcF7dHs9h
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Sure, but the number of kids challenging NCAA years-of-eligibility rules in court, is going to start increasing.
Very possible. It’s funny because the two teams around the Covid year at Wisconsin actually started a pair of guys who played six years the old-fashioned way. Which of the time felt a hair more than mundane.
It’s also funny because both had the option to come back because of Covid, and they turned it down Because NIL wasn’t a thing back then.
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Auburn brining back Chad Baker-Mazara who will turn 26 during the season.
He is 3 months younger than Jaren Jackson Jr., who will be in his 8th NBA season. And 9 months younger than Luka Doncic
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I mean if you like minor league basketball, there is an outlet for you. Id prefer 22 year olds not play high school basketball, or 18 year olds play middle school basketball. But I guess if you can get paid to do so, nobody can stop your eligibility?
If I paid a 16 year old to play on my 12 year olds team, telling him no is restricting his earning potential
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Michigan lands the #1 player out of the portal, a big from UAB.
Dusty May said he didn't want to run a portal program, but the problem is now, how can you not when you take a new job? He said he had to lean on the portal this year, or he wouldn't have had a roster, which is true. But unless you commit to tough times, and building from scratch, once you make that first team a portal team, you need to keep going back there because all of the guys he brought in are now gone, so his returning roster looks as bad as it did a year ago. Unless you had your job pre portal, you almost have to be a portal team, because you inherited nothing. And now that teams like Michigan, St. John's, and Louisville did what they did, and won quickly, I don't think the option of "patience because we don't want to be a portal team" is an option
Apparently they paid him over $4 million, and have spent over $7 million on transfers thus far. That's roughly on par with being the #16 pick in the NBA Draft on a one year basis
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New Iowa coach Ben McCollum can now field an entire starting 5 from the players he has brought over from Drake. Banks, the 6th man of the year in the MVC, reportedly committed Friday.
There's a good chance this won't be the starting 5, since the #Hawkeyes also have a former 4-star recruit, Cooper Koch, on the roster. It does show how man players made the move.
(https://i.imgur.com/obu7T12.jpeg)
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(https://i.imgur.com/H40OCj3.jpeg)
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Purdue filled out their roster yesterday in the portal, a couple of good pieces 6'4" point guard from Israel, 18 year old w/ 4 years eligibility ... already played some pro ball and a good 3 pt shooting 6'7" wing. Boilers are going to be Top 3 preseason next year and expectations will be as high as our National Championship run last year.
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I’m interested when UW will land its stretch 4 type. Roster seems short on that spot unless one of the 6-5 guys gets notably stronger.
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Chad Baker-Mazara in the portal. Next year he will be 26, and at his 5th school
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Chad Baker-Mazara in the portal. Next year he will be 26, and at his 5th school
I wonder what Jay Bilas really thinks of the situation ... I don't listen to his games much anymore since there is no BIG on ESPN.
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(https://i.imgur.com/DxbdmEp.png)
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I like this.
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1928454144664207722 (https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1928454144664207722)
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https://twitter.com/jessetemple/status/1930947610367434787 (https://twitter.com/jessetemple/status/1930947610367434787)
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https://twitter.com/jessetemple/status/1930947610367434787 (https://twitter.com/jessetemple/status/1930947610367434787)
He’s a really nice case for the upside of NIL.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-five-college-basketball-teams-most-likely-to-win-first-ncaa-tournament-title-in-2026/amp/
According to CBS the five programs most like to win their first ever CBB NC in 2025/26 are led by our own Purdue Boilermakers:
- Purdue
- Houston
- BYU
- Alabama
- Auburn
The last first-time Champ was Baylor in 2021 who beat Gonzaga in a title game that could only produce a first-time Champion. Since then both Houston and Purdue have been to the title game but the Champs have been Kansas, UCONN2x, and Florida.
It is interesting to me how different this is from the situation in CFB where the last first-time Champion was Florida nearly three decades ago and there aren't any programs that look like they have a plausible chance in the foreseeable future.
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I thought Houston was supposed to be the runaway preseason #1?
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It is interesting to me how different this is from the situation in CFB where the last first-time Champion was Florida nearly three decades ago and there aren't any programs that look like they have a plausible chance in the foreseeable future.
Oregon?
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-five-college-basketball-teams-most-likely-to-win-first-ncaa-tournament-title-in-2026/amp/
According to CBS the five programs most like to win their first ever CBB NC in 2025/26 are led by our own Purdue Boilermakers:
- Purdue
- Houston
- BYU
- Alabama
- Auburn
The last first-time Champ was Baylor in 2021 who beat Gonzaga in a title game that could only produce a first-time Champion. Since then both Houston and Purdue have been to the title game but the Champs have been Kansas, UCONN2x, and Florida.
It is interesting to me how different this is from the situation in CFB where the last first-time Champion was Florida nearly three decades ago and there aren't any programs that look like they have a plausible chance in the foreseeable future.
That is interesting.
I wonder if it’s a couple things.
-Winning a CBB title is theoretically easier and more random? Basketball games can be fluky. You won’t lose a poll tiebreaker as teams did historically.
-A greater percentage of “power” teams are eligible. In the poll era, 44 percent of current P4 teams have a title, and you could argue a set of those are mid majors. All told, 29 or so current power programs have titles (and some of have quasi-mid-major history), but there are more “power” teams, so that number is something like 37 percent.
Wild one could build a list like that and not have Gonzaga, Houston or Texas Tech. That sport feels like it has more spontaneity to it.
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Also, that is relying on one national title, that began in 1939. I think Purdue has a Helms national title, correct? It would be like if you only credited AP National champs in football. Only one per year, and starting in 1936.
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Also, that is relying on one national title, that began in 1939. I think Purdue has a Helms national title, correct? It would be like if you only credited AP National champs in football. Only one per year, and starting in 1936.
I just went with the poll era ones. If you count the ones for Cal, Vandy, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Stanford, Rutgers, it gets much weirder.
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Oregon?
That is a fair point, they do seem like a plausible NC.
That said, it is one vs a lot more in BB.
Also, that is relying on one national title, that began in 1939. I think Purdue has a Helms national title, correct? It would be like if you only credited AP National champs in football. Only one per year, and starting in 1936.
IIRC, that IS what I was comparing. If you go by AP and only count AP Champions, the most recent first-time NC was Florida in 1996.
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That is a fair point, they do seem like a plausible NC.
That said, it is one vs a lot more in BB.
IIRC, that IS what I was comparing. If you go by AP and only count AP Champions, the most recent first-time NC was Florida in 1996.
Ah, got it.
Yeah, I think part of it is how fluky is the flukiest football champ? I mean BYU is the obvious one. But BYU was actually #5 that year in SP+. I'd be curious as to the pre-tourney KenPom rankings of every college basketball champion. I wouldn't be shocked if the average ranking was below #5. The smaller rosters make fielding the best roster more attainable in basketball, but beyond that you don't even need to be the best team to win it
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Well the portal guy MSU brought in from FAU tore his patella tendon in a shooting drill yesterday.
3 point shooting was already an issue, and now it looks scary bad. He was our one chance at having a 3 who could shoot
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Well the portal guy MSU brought in from FAU tore his patella tendon in a shooting drill yesterday.
3 point shooting was already an issue, and now it looks scary bad. He was our one chance at having a 3 who could shoot
Is there any indication how long until he'll be back?
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They said hes out for the season
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UConn, Arkansas, Kentucky, UNC, and Duke. Fun times
https://twitter.com/MSU_Basketball/status/1965448981942513839
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Apparently they are expanding the conference tournament to include all 18
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Just give everyone a f'ing trophy.
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Apparently they are expanding the conference tournament to include all 18
Source, any indication of structure?
Just give everyone a f'ing trophy.
It isn't about that, it is about the almighty dollar. If all 18 teams go to the League Tournament that means 17 games they can sell TV rights and tickets to.
As far as structure, we talked about this before but next to nobody will travel any appreciable distance to watch their #15 seeded favorite B1G BB team take on the #18 seeded cellar-dwellers in a battle to determine which team will get crushed by the #2 seed.
Basic structure options as I see it:
#1, get down to a geometric sequence of 2 (2, 4, 8, 16) then everybody plays:
First Round:
Second Round:
- #1 vs 16/17
- #2 vs 15/18
- #3 vs #14
- #4 vs #13
- #5 vs #12
- #6 vs #11
- #7 vs #10
- #8 vs #9
#2 feed teams in four at a time (this is historically how they've done it with adjustments as necessary to account for the then current number of teams:
First Round:
Second Round:
- #9 vs 16/17
- #10 vs 15/18
- #11 vs #14
- #12 vs #13
Third Round:
- #5 vs 12/13
- #6 vs 11/14
- #7 vs 10/15/18
- #8 vs 9/16/17
Fourth Round:
- #1 vs 8/9/16/17
- #2 vs 7/10/15/18
- #3 vs 6/11/14
- #4 vs 5/12/13
What I would suggest is to have the top-4 host the opening rounds then the winners of those rounds meet at a neutral site for a B1G Final Four as follows:
First Round:
- #15 vs #18 at #2
- #16 vs #17 at #1
Second Round:
- #1 vs 16/17 at #1
- #2 vs 15/18 at #2
- #3 vs #14 at #3
- #4 vs #13 at #4
- #5 vs #12 at #4
- #6 vs #11 at #3
- #7 vs #10 at #2
- #8 vs #9 at #1
Third Round:
- 1/16/17 vs 8/9 at #1
- 2/15/18 vs 7/10 at #2
- 3/14 vs 6/11 at #3
- 4/13 vs 5/12 at #4
Then go to a neutral site for the Final Four
My suggestion would be to either eliminate the games on the final Sunday of the regular season or make the schedule flexible such that no team mathematically in contention for a first round game has to play on Sunday then:
- Travel day on Sunday at least for the bottom-4
- Travel day on Monday for everybody
- First round on Tuesday at top-2 seeds
- Second round on Wednesday at top-4 seeds
- Third round on Thursday at top-4 seeds
- Travel day on Friday
- Semi-Finals on Saturday at a neutral site
- Championship on Sunday at a neutral site
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Well the portal guy MSU brought in from FAU tore his patella tendon in a shooting drill yesterday.
3 point shooting was already an issue, and now it looks scary bad. He was our one chance at having a 3 who could shoot
Izzo will find a way. There's so many seasons I thought MSU would have a rough road and wouldn't be a typical MSU team, yet he finds a way and coaches the team to a competitive level every darn year.
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Source, any indication of structure?
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1968769562725261699
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https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1968769562725261699
Thanks, curious about structure.
I think they've always done the "feed in" method because it is difficult to handle more than four games per day at any one site so logistically it is easiest to just feed in the next four highest seeds each day.
Doing that with 18 teams would make for a LONG tournament, by day:
- 15-18 play to get down to 16
- 9-14 and day 1 winners play to get down to 12
- 5-8 and day 2 winners play to get down to 8
- 1-4 and day 3 winners play to get down to 4
- Day 4 winners play to get down to 2
- Championship
You'd have to have the arena for all of Tuesday-Sunday.
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Bruce Pearl retiring
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Well, that just means that the Indiana fans are going to be throwing the checkbook at him in three years.
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Well, that just means that the Indiana fans are going to be throwing the checkbook at him in three years.
He's apparently running for Congress, so plenty of people will be throwing checkbooks at him
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Purdue Non-con schedule in finalized. Purdue has been fighting neck-and-neck with MSU for years now as to who can come up with the harder schedule.
@ Kentucky (exhibition) #9
UIndy
Evansville
Oakland
@Alabama #17
Akron
Memphis (Bahamas)
Tx Tch (#10) or Wake Forrest (Bahamas)
E. Ill
Iowa St. #18
Marquette
Auburn (Indy) #14
Kent St.
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Hold my beer, says Greg Gard. He also does this every year.
(https://i.imgur.com/nATmu91.png)
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Purdue Non-con schedule in finalized. Purdue has been fighting neck-and-neck with MSU for years now as to who can come up with the harder schedule.
@ Kentucky (exhibition) #9
UIndy
Evansville
Oakland
@Alabama #17
Akron
Memphis (Bahamas)
Tx Tch (#10) or Wake Forrest (Bahamas)
E. Ill
Iowa St. #18
Marquette
Auburn (Indy) #14
Kent St.
The bummer is the death of the great 8 team events
Feast Week used to be one of my favorite sports weeks of the year
Seems like way more of these 4 team events, trying to set up a great championship. Like that Purdue-TT event. MSU has one set up for an MSU-UNC championship
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...has started. Winthrop and Queens is on Youtube right now. Not sure if we have a thread somewhere else. Most everyone tips off tonight, mostly hidden on Big Ten Plus. You'd think with all the networks they have they could throw them on Amazon or Peacock or something.
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Bump for merge
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Bump for merge
Thanks man!
I enjoy having basketball on during the day. TV people should do more of that.
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...has started. Winthrop and Queens is on Youtube right now. Not sure if we have a thread somewhere else. Most everyone tips off tonight, mostly hidden on Big Ten Plus. You'd think with all the networks they have they could throw them on Amazon or Peacock or something.
The early game is the Field of 68s attempt to recreate the old 24 hours of hoops, sort of. I think they have a deal with YouTube.
As to why most games are hidden on Big Ten+, guessing putting MSU-Cornell there doesn't really piss anyone off, and may get MSU fans to pony up and buy it.
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Thanks man!
I enjoy having basketball on during the day. TV people should do more of that.
I said that a couple years ago. Some of the small conferences, like the Patriot League, did it in the 2020-21 season. I'm assuming it was a COVID thing, because crowds were non existent anyway, and it gave them some leeway if there were positives.
Why not do that anyway. If ESPNU had a Patriot League doubleheader on Tuesday and Thursday afternoon or whatever, I bet it would do decently
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Wisconsin is playing the Campbell Camels today. It would be nice if it was in the afternoon or even morning.
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Nebraska is playing someone - not a team that will put up much of a game, I'd guess
no interest here
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(https://i.imgur.com/X6GscKV.jpeg)
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:34:
(https://i.imgur.com/fneYpT0.jpeg)
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(https://i.imgur.com/X6GscKV.jpeg)
Which is why I can't be mad if Purdue wins the Big Ten.
Congrats on Michigan and UCLA trying to buy a title
MSU and Purdue hate each other, but should respect each other as the last true great programs in the conference. Granted only until Painter and Izzo retire
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Which is why I can't be mad if Purdue wins the Big Ten.
Congrats on Michigan and UCLA trying to buy a title
MSU and Purdue hate each other, but should respect each other as the last true great programs in the conference. Granted only until Painter and Izzo retire
Yeah, and I don't see Izzo and Painter as the type who want to "buy a title"...
Which isn't to say that they're not getting on board with the new world order; I'm sure they're on top of the NIL game. But I think they know that it takes a lot more to have a successful program than an open pocketbook.
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Yeah, and I don't see Izzo and Painter as the type who want to "buy a title"...
Which isn't to say that they're not getting on board with the new world order; I'm sure they're on top of the NIL game. But I think they know that it takes a lot more to have a successful program than an open pocketbook.
I think they both spend to retain recruits. Dusty May said he wasn't a transactional program...and then went out and bought the most expensive transfer. It's above board, but if I was a Michigan fan I could not care less about how my basketball team does after two straight years of buying the best transfers.
Literally you are just rooting for laundry at the most extreme level
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Pretty sure I already posted this, but they need to fix the preseason tournaments. They are trash this year, as most good schools are in shitty, fake 4 team tournaments set up for one easy one, and then one made for TV matchup.
Feast Week is the best part of college basketball during the first 3 weeks of the season
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Well Colgate is 7-15 on 2s and 6-14 on 3s.
Typical irritating early season game
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Definitely expected some backslide on offense, losing their top 3 scorers from a year ago.
Defense needs to be better, and thought it would be. Tough to make a call after one game
Clear that for now Fears is going to need to play 35 minutes for the time being. Things look real bad when hes off the floor
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Buckeyes took on The System. Kinda struggled to defend, which I think will be a theme all season.
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Buckeyes took on The System. Kinda struggled to defend, which I think will be a theme all season.
OSU scoring chart is about the straightest line you will ever see. No streaks, no droughts. Just a pretty straight 3 ppm for 40 minutes
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OSU scoring chart is about the straightest line you will ever see. No streaks, no droughts. Just a pretty straight 3 ppm for 40 minutes
(https://i.imgur.com/zA9pvJW.png)
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Arizona’s freshman Koa Peat wowed in his debut, scoring 30 and leading the #13 Wildcats over #3 Florida in Las Vegas last night.
(https://i.imgur.com/oFqqFxd.png)
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Pretty much most of the Big has played their first game against Cupcake U and no surprises so far (through Oregon gave it a good effort).
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https://www.on3.com/teams/purdue-boilermakers/news/7-foot-four-star-center-sinan-huan-commits-to-purdue/
Does Painter have a tree outside Mackey that produces 7+ foot tall genetic freaks annually?
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https://www.on3.com/teams/purdue-boilermakers/news/7-foot-four-star-center-sinan-huan-commits-to-purdue/
Does Painter have a tree outside Mackey that produces 7+ foot tall genetic freaks annually?
Shouldn't be a surprise. After all, Sinan said both of these things:
- "Purdue’s track record in developing big men also played a big role in my decision. Their system has produced many successful bigs with different body types and skill sets, and during my visit I got to see how structured and intentional their player development program is."
- "Purdue has an impressive roster retention rate, which allows me to have some time and structure to develop without feeling rushed in my first year."
On the first point, Painter has a strong track record with bigs. And as he mentions, it's not like Painter expects every single one to be carbon copies of the others. He's shown that he's willing and able to adapt to the skill sets of the player. On the second point, bigs are typically slower to transition to the college game than guards--often because it's the first time that they're regularly playing against anyone else remotely close to their own size. I can see how in the world of the transfer portal and basically free agency, knowing that you're walking into a situation that is going to meaningfully invest in developing your skills and not just see you as a 1-year rental before you go somewhere else, has to be reassuring.
If you were a 7-foot recruit, wouldn't Purdue be very near the top of your list? It certainly would be high on mine.
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Not to derail this conversation, but a good coach imbues the program with an identity that people buy into. This is part of Purdue's identity--and why people would want to go there, and would want to stay there.
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Big game tonight for Purdue @ Alabama. Saw the Alabama / St Johns game over the weekend and I'm kinda shocked that the line is only Alabama -3.5. I think Bama wins by ~10 tonight (at least if they play like they did at MSG over the weekend). Renn is coming back from an mild injury, so I expect it will be at least a half before he warms up.
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Not to derail this conversation, but a good coach imbues the program with an identity that people buy into. This is part of Purdue's identity--and why people would want to go there, and would want to stay there.
The problem is that's tough to do, if you weren't in place prior to the change.
Purdue could do it. MSU could do it.
Dusty May said he didn't want to run a transfer program at Michigan, but he needed to in Year 1. And who could blame him. Guys come in, and flip a roster, and have success. Dusty May was one of those. But the two best of those transfer moved on. In prior years, maybe UM gets to the NIT last year, those guys are back for another year, and you grown. Instead your two best players are gone. So what do you do? Go backwards? No, he brings in more transfers, including the #1 transfer in the country. And they are seemingly good again. But because the expectations are that you can turn it around in one year, you have to, and once you get on the transfer treadmill, its tough to get off.
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Absolutely it's tough to do. That's why Painter is Painter, and Purdue is Purdue. Same with Izzo. They are rare and valuable coaches.
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Shouldn't be a surprise. After all, Sinan said both of these things:
- "Purdue’s track record in developing big men also played a big role in my decision. Their system has produced many successful bigs with different body types and skill sets, and during my visit I got to see how structured and intentional their player development program is."
- "Purdue has an impressive roster retention rate, which allows me to have some time and structure to develop without feeling rushed in my first year."
On the first point, Painter has a strong track record with bigs. And as he mentions, it's not like Painter expects every single one to be carbon copies of the others. He's shown that he's willing and able to adapt to the skill sets of the player. On the second point, bigs are typically slower to transition to the college game than guards--often because it's the first time that they're regularly playing against anyone else remotely close to their own size. I can see how in the world of the transfer portal and basically free agency, knowing that you're walking into a situation that is going to meaningfully invest in developing your skills and not just see you as a 1-year rental before you go somewhere else, has to be reassuring.
If you were a 7-foot recruit, wouldn't Purdue be very near the top of your list? It certainly would be high on mine.
Not to derail this conversation, but a good coach imbues the program with an identity that people buy into. This is part of Purdue's identity--and why people would want to go there, and would want to stay there.
I agree with both of you. From an opposing fan perspective it is just at the point where you assume that Purdue will have some massive 7+ footer under the rim EVERY FREAKING YEAR and that he won't be a 7' oaf, he'll actually be able to play. Good for Painter/Purdue.
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Good point. They never get the pedestrian 7 footers, like Kosta Koufus or BJ Mullens.
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Good point. They never get the pedestrian 7 footers, like Kosta Koufus or BJ Mullens.
Well it is either that they don't get them or that they successfully develop them into quality players. Those two are great examples of guys who had the height but simply weren't decent BB players. Purdue's guys have the height AND the ability. That is a tribute to Painter because he is doing some combination of recruiting the right ginormous guys and developing the ginormous guys into quality BB players.
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The problem is that's tough to do, if you weren't in place prior to the change.
Purdue could do it. MSU could do it.
Dusty May said he didn't want to run a transfer program at Michigan, but he needed to in Year 1. And who could blame him. Guys come in, and flip a roster, and have success. Dusty May was one of those. But the two best of those transfer moved on. In prior years, maybe UM gets to the NIT last year, those guys are back for another year, and you grown. Instead your two best players are gone. So what do you do? Go backwards? No, he brings in more transfers, including the #1 transfer in the country. And they are seemingly good again. But because the expectations are that you can turn it around in one year, you have to, and once you get on the transfer treadmill, its tough to get off.
Eh. It's not like Painter and Izzo aren't availing themselves of the transfer market. Heck, even before the portal turned everything into the wild west, Purdue was taking transfers who would have to sit a year, and making as much use of the immediate grad transfer process as they felt they needed to.
I think SFBadge is making a statement more about institutional culture. MSU, Purdue, as well as Wisconsin, have a culture of stability, and the program has an identity. That goes partly hand in hand with having long-tenured coaches, and in every single one of those cases, coaches who ascended into their roles as proteges of the long-tenured successful coach before them.
Undoubtedly it's harder for a coach like May coming in today. And yeah, when you take over a program in the current environment, nobody is going to wait for you to get "your guys" when you can put together a successful team via transfers. But ultimately May is going to have to build his program's culture and identity, built around a core that comes [mostly] from HS recruits, with transfers on an "as needed" basis rather than a constantly rotating roster every new season.
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No, but they aren't building their teams out of the portal.
In the portal era, I think Tyson Walker is the only impact transfer they've brought in, and that was 4 years ago. They added no transfers in 2022 or 2023
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But ultimately May is going to have to build his program's culture and identity, built around a core that comes [mostly] from HS recruits, with transfers on an "as needed" basis rather than a constantly rotating roster every new season.
That's the problem, how do you establish that?
He started 4 transfers last year. 2 of his 3 2024 recruits transferred out.
6 of his top 7 players in terms of minutes this year are transfers
Again, not blaming him, it's just impossible to build purely through recruiting anymore, because the current structure doesn't allow you to build up.
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Well it is either that they don't get them or that they successfully develop them into quality players. Those two are great examples of guys who had the height but simply weren't decent BB players. Purdue's guys have the height AND the ability. That is a tribute to Painter because he is doing some combination of recruiting the right ginormous guys and developing the ginormous guys into quality BB players.
Yes. For a number of those guys, they didn't just come in on day 1 and dominate. AJ Hammons was very polished coming in, and Zach Edey was just a monster. But it's not like every 7-footer that ever wore the uniform has been the same.
Isaac Haas was VERY raw early. And he never had or developed all that much athleticism. He never left the post. And there's a reason he went undrafted and ended up playing in China. I'm not going to say he wasn't a great Purdue Boilermaker; he was. He was a matchup nightmare at the collegiate level that most people probably thought they'd not see again for a long time--until Edey showed up and was even more of a matchup challenge lol. But he had some pretty significant limits to his game.
Arguably, Matt Haarms never really panned out. He was good enough to play, but he was never a dominant big. He was kinda like a 7'3" forward, not someone who dominated in the paint--although he was a hell of a shot blocker. Isaac Haas, followed by Trevion Williams, were the guys banging down low. And he left Purdue to transfer [down IMHO] to BYU.
And nobody is talking about Will Berg. While nobody expected him to do anything behind Edey as a freshman, he was a sophomore last year and even after the Jacobsen injury, barely cracked 6 minutes per game. And has now transferred down to Wichita State.
So it's not like there haven't been misses.
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That's the problem, how do you establish that?
He started 4 transfers last year. 2 of his 3 2024 recruits transferred out.
6 of his top 7 players in terms of minutes this year are transfers
Again, not blaming him, it's just impossible to build purely through recruiting anymore, because the current structure doesn't allow you to build up.
You wait and watch. We won't be able to determine if he's pulled it off for another 2-3 years. But it's not like he isn't recruiting.
I'm sure 2024 recruiting was a bit of a wash being new to the program. But one of his recruits transferred down to CMU, so perhaps he wasn't good enough to be a Wolverine. And Pippin's kid went back to California; maybe Ann Arbor or May wasn't the right fit.
But now he's got 5 incoming 2025 HS recruits. 3 of them seem to be consensus 4-star guys. He's listed (per wiki) as already having 4 recruits for the 2026 class.
If the core of his roster is built around those recruits come 2027 or 2028, then you can say he's pulled it off. But it's too early now.
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I think the Portal/NIL era also means that there will be some highly variable years for two reasons:
- Sometimes the transfers just aren't going to work out or aren't going to mesh well together, and
- It is difficult even for the bluest of blue bloods to maintain quality depth because guys who aren't getting PT and aren't getting paid are going to leave for more PT and more cash.
So there are going to be years where the new QB doesn't live up to expectations and the transfer LBer doesn't fit well in your system and a couple O-linemen get injured and pretty soon your year-after-year NC Contender is struggling to find six wins to go bowling. Same thing in BB (since this is a BB thread), there are going to be transfers that just don't work out like the ones Ohio State got last year.
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UW has done a pretty solid job mixing in a few transfers with the home-grown kids that they pay to retain.
They went from Storr to Tonje, and Tonje to Boyd. That's not bad.
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The funny thing is how bad Field of 68's coverage is. It's a bunch of guys who were (probably due to normal media) fired from their mainstream college basketball jobs. They were good, but such is media now, you better either be Stephen A. Smith, or be willing to work for pennies.
But man, they put out a ton of college basketball content, and just slurp the programs who actually give them access. I don't blame them, but it's sad how these clearly good basketball analysts have to push those programs who give them access. You would think Illinois and Auburn were the two greatest programs in the country. Followed closely by Texas Tech
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I was listening to an an interview with UMs $4 million man, and they were asking him why he picked Michigan, and he was talking about a bunch of stuff other than money. It's a stupid question, and stupid he has to make up an answer. This is like Reggie White saying God told him to go to Green bay in the early days of NFL free agency.
Can we just get to a place where it's the same. Obviously he might take a small discount to play at Michigan vs. playing at a non contender, same as pros. But stop asking these kids why. They are free agents, and they sign for money, particularly out of the portal where its usually a 1 year year deal.
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Big win for Purdue last night, in Tuscloosa. Huge night for Smith. This team is for real.
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Big win for Purdue last night, in Tuscloosa. Huge night for Smith. This team is for real.
Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan seem like the leaders in the clubhouse.
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MSU, Illinois, and now Purdue all won their ranked vs. ranked matchups.
Next up is UCLA against #5 Arizona tonight
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Peacock. WTF. I guess I'm glad I have it. They are also taking UW against UCLA, USC and IL.
(https://i.imgur.com/9r9keqH.png)
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(https://i.imgflip.com/ac43ov.jpg)
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(https://media.tenor.com/YmdbtgtLevkAAAAC/lancejones-lancebuckets.gif)
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Trying to figure out the Buckeyes. So far they look better than last year but with two big caveats:
- That isn't saying much, and
- It is really hard to tell because the opposition hasn't been very good.
They host Notre Dame Sunday in a game that the WorldWide Leader says they should win (74.2%) and they might be ranked next week if they do.
Next week they host Directional-Michigan in a game that ESPN says should be a laugher (98.6%).
Turkey week they host yet another laugher (Mt. St. Mary's, 97.5%) then travel to Pittsburgh on Black Friday. The Pittsburgh game seems to have been scheduled to attract the least possible attention from Ohio State fans. It is the day between Thanksgiving and The Game so I'm guessing the bulk of Ohio State's fans will not know it happened until sometime in December or January when they look up from Football long enough to check out the BB team. Nonetheless, ESPN says that the Buckeyes should win at Pitt (58.8%).
After the Pitt game, the Buckeyes play their two December league games and the split is interesting. They go to Evanston to play Northwestern on Saturday, December 6 (that is the day of the B1GCG so if the football team makes that, practically zero Ohio State fans will even know this is going on) then host #14 Illinois on Tuesday, December 9. I find the split interesting because if it were reversed I would be fairly confident that Ohio State would lose in Champaign and beat the Wildcats at home but with this split 2-0, 0-2, 1-1, and 1-1 the other way all seem reasonably likely. ESPN has them as a slight underdog in both games (42% at NU, 45.7% vs IL).
They finish December with two coin-toss neutral site OOC games (49.1% vs WVU in Cleveland, 56.1% vs UNC in Atlanta [that seems WAY high]) and yet another home gimmie (98.1% vs Grambling).
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Trying to figure out the Buckeyes. So far they look better than last year but with two big caveats:
- That isn't saying much, and
- It is really hard to tell because the opposition hasn't been very good.
They host Notre Dame Sunday in a game that the WorldWide Leader says they should win (74.2%) and they might be ranked next week if they do.
Next week they host Directional-Michigan in a game that ESPN says should be a laugher (98.6%).
Turkey week they host yet another laugher (Mt. St. Mary's, 97.5%) then travel to Pittsburgh on Black Friday. The Pittsburgh game seems to have been scheduled to attract the least possible attention from Ohio State fans. It is the day between Thanksgiving and The Game so I'm guessing the bulk of Ohio State's fans will not know it happened until sometime in December or January when they look up from Football long enough to check out the BB team. Nonetheless, ESPN says that the Buckeyes should win at Pitt (58.8%).
After the Pitt game, the Buckeyes play their two December league games and the split is interesting. They go to Evanston to play Northwestern on Saturday, December 6 (that is the day of the B1GCG so if the football team makes that, practically zero Ohio State fans will even know this is going on) then host #14 Illinois on Tuesday, December 9. I find the split interesting because if it were reversed I would be fairly confident that Ohio State would lose in Champaign and beat the Wildcats at home but with this split 2-0, 0-2, 1-1, and 1-1 the other way all seem reasonably likely. ESPN has them as a slight underdog in both games (42% at NU, 45.7% vs IL).
They finish December with two coin-toss neutral site OOC games (49.1% vs WVU in Cleveland, 56.1% vs UNC in Atlanta [that seems WAY high]) and yet another home gimmie (98.1% vs Grambling).
The transfers aren't totally worthless this year, that should help
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The transfers aren't totally worthless this year, that should help
Yeah, last year's transfers were a complete disaster
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This could be something.
https://twitter.com/CBBcontent/status/1989190007790137728 (https://twitter.com/CBBcontent/status/1989190007790137728)
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Since its not premarital sex, he may be fine
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Since its not premarital sex, he may be fine
I'm pretty sure the Mormons aren't real big on drinking either.
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Violation of the BYU Honor Code for sure.
https://honorcode.byu.edu/ (https://honorcode.byu.edu/)
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I'm pretty sure the Mormons aren't real big on drinking either.
or smokin or anything fun
enjoyed a fine cigar on the back 9 yesterday afternoon!
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MSU, Illinois, and now Purdue all won their ranked vs. ranked matchups.
Next up is UCLA against #5 Arizona tonight
Well last night, not so much. UCLA lost to Arizona, and Michigan barely beat an extremely shitty TCU
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or smokin or anything fun
enjoyed a fine cigar on the back 9 yesterday afternoon!
Jim McMahon probably had a pretty good time.
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Jim McMahon probably had a pretty good time.
The OG soaker
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Ouch Pharrel Payne. That sucks
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(https://i.imgur.com/fIQnRPZ.jpeg)
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Nebraska with nation's longest winning streak in hoops.
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and Volleyball
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Buckeyes survive Notre Dame.
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Hopefully this will embed...
It's good when you can get someone so out of sorts with a ball fake that you almost have time to look at them derisively, shake your head, and then line up your three-pointer before draining it.
https://twitter.com/BigTenNetwork/status/1990220465923580372
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I like how the defender didn't even try to hustle back. Kind of like a hat tip...."You earned that open look, I'll just stay over here."
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With Purdue posting a tremendous true road win over top-10 Alabama and a convincing win over twice-defending MAC champ Akron, and with Houston having a one-point home win over #22 Auburn...
Purdue is back to #1 in both polls!
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(https://preview.redd.it/after-two-decent-games-from-fields-chicago-is-ready-to-v0-q84da5zwytsb1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=fd0a8cd30e29e2c919ae9398f718cba3144d3b4b)
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Not crowning anything...
I don't expect a Buckeye to understand, but gaining this level of national attention is not something we Boiler fans are used to. We know we've had a historically excellent basketball program... But actually being seen as #1 nationally is new to us.
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Yeah I know, I was just horsing around a little bit. And on that note...
There's NO WAY Purdue doesn't win it all this year.
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Not crowning anything...
I don't expect a Buckeye to understand, but gaining this level of national attention is not something we Boiler fans are used to. We know we've had a historically excellent basketball program... But actually being seen as #1 nationally is new to us.
I thought Purdue had tons of regular season success, the issue is that they weren't recognized because lots of people don't pay attention until the tournament, where Purdue had underachieved
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I should mention that I think this is shaping up to be a very complete basketball team.
2024-25 we had a problem at the 5 spot. And that was a "ceiling" problem because we were forcing TKR into playing that role. He could *do* it, but he couldn't excel at it. And forcing him to do it took him away from his natural role at the 4.
What we're seeing with 7'5" Daniel Jacobsen (soph, but missed essentially his entire frosh year due to a broken leg) and 6'11" bruiser Oscar Cluff (transfer senior) is that things are looking like we're going to have a center-by-committee that can be out there for 40 minutes and actually compete with other front courts. They're very different, but Jacobsen knocked down a 3 last night that wasn't some late-shot-clock desperation heave, so he's seemingly got the green light from Painter to do that, which stretches the defense. And Cluff is a bully on the boards.
Which means TKR can move to the 4, his natural spot. And just takes pressure off everyone else.
Loyer is Loyer. ELITE shooter. If you leave him for an instant to help on defense, he lights you up from the perimeter. If you guard him close, he may have a quiet game, but then it opens things up for Smith and TKR. Pick your poison.
The other significant addition to Jacobsen being healthy and Cluff as a transfer is Omer Mayer, who is a really good point guard who can take some minutes to keep Braden Smith from getting run down, and seems to be talented as hell in his own right. Think "Chris Kramer body/toughness with actual offensive skills".
And yes... If you're reading closely...
"My Boilermaker has a first name, it's O-S-C-A-R... My Boilermaker has a second name, it's M-A-Y-E-R..." :57:
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I thought Purdue had tons of regular season success, the issue is that they weren't recognized because lots of people don't pay attention until the tournament, where Purdue had underachieved
I think Purdue has had the historical "identity" of being a "lunchpail" team. Guys who weren't always the most heavily recruited. Who weren't the most athletic or the most dynamic. Who didn't have all the STARZ. But guys who bought into the program, and the team, played hard and smart, and thus they won a LOT of games... But in March fell because "lunchpail" doesn't beat STARZ, because STARZ wins in March.
I think Paint has somewhat changed the narrative with guys like Carsen Edwards, Jaden Ivey, and 2x NPOY Zach Edey. You can say Zach's a human unicorn, and he sorta is, but the screen graphic that they tossed up in last night's game is that it's the 14th straight year Purdue has had a 7-footer on the roster. And as we pointed out upthread, he just got another big [pun intended] HS commit.
I don't think Purdue was recognized because Purdue-style basketball wasn't sexy enough. It was "drag you into the mud and strangle you" basketball. But I think now it's still strangle you in the mud basketball, but more along the lines of bikini mud wrestling :57:
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I drafted Jacobsen on my college fantasy team, which with my luck, will make him the first Purdue giant to not turn into a problem for everyone
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I think Purdue has had the historical "identity" of being a "lunchpail" team. Guys who weren't always the most heavily recruited. Who weren't the most athletic or the most dynamic. Who didn't have all the STARZ. But guys who bought into the program, and the team, played hard and smart, and thus they won a LOT of games... But in March fell because "lunchpail" doesn't beat STARZ, because STARZ wins in March.
I think Paint has somewhat changed the narrative with guys like Carsen Edwards, Jaden Ivey, and 2x NPOY Zach Edey. You can say Zach's a human unicorn, and he sorta is, but the screen graphic that they tossed up in last night's game is that it's the 14th straight year Purdue has had a 7-footer on the roster. And as we pointed out upthread, he just got another big [pun intended] HS commit.
I don't think Purdue was recognized because Purdue-style basketball wasn't sexy enough. It was "drag you into the mud and strangle you" basketball. But I think now it's still strangle you in the mud basketball, but more along the lines of bikini mud wrestling :57:
Putting the image of Brian Cardinal in a bikini out of my mind, perhaps the fact that the identity of Purdue when I first started following was Glenn Robinson slightly changes that for me
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I drafted Jacobsen on my college fantasy team, which with my luck, will make him the first Purdue giant to not turn into a problem for everyone
The problem you'll have with Jacobsen is twofold:
- With the other players around him, he's not going to be a centerpiece like Edey. I don't think he's as physically dominant despite his size, and he's still raw as a sophomore that missed last year due to early injury. The big three of Purdue are still Smith/TKR/Loyer, and everyone else is supporting cast.
- Much like fantasy football where you don't want a "committee back", i.e. someone who is in a running back by committee, that might be what you have between Jacobsen and Cluff this year. You've got big-by-committee. You'd be better off with a worse big who has no competition than a potentially better big who's splitting the workload.
I think as a senior transfer, Cluff may be out of eligibility after this year (not 100% tho). Which would put Jacobsen in the lead role next year. So drafting Jacobsen might have just been a year too early.
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Putting the image of Brian Cardinal in a bikini out of my mind, perhaps the fact that the identity of Purdue when I first started following was Glenn Robinson slightly changes that for me
Cardinal's nickname was "The Custodian"... So he wasn't in the bikini, he cleaned up the arena after the wrestling was over :57:
Big Dog was before my time, so I get that aspect. But I would sense that Purdue would still have that stigma that if you don't put the right guards around a dude like that, you don't win in March.
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Cardinal's nickname was "The Custodian"... So he wasn't in the bikini, he cleaned up the arena after the wrestling was over :57:
Big Dog was before my time, so I get that aspect. But I would sense that Purdue would still have that stigma that if you don't put the right guards around a dude like that, you don't win in March.
He's still the best college player I've ever seen. I go back to like 1991. We are used to one dude carrying a team now. And that's been a thing for like 20+ years, since the one and done.
In that era, no way. The best teams had 2-3 legit NBA players on them. Purdue had Big Dog, and maybe Cuonzo Martin? It was also an era where there were maybe 2 college games on per night on ESPN, 3 on Saturday, but Raycom picked up all of the Big Ten Saturday games, so you knew every Big Ten player. Robinson's game wasn't the type to translate to a YouTube highlight reel, but it felt like you could pencil him in for 30 every game, because he was so versatile.
Also helps that those early 2000s Bucks teams with him, Ray Allen and Sam Cassell were my favorite team at the time
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With MSU's destruction of Kentucky, they now have beaten 2 ranked SEC teams, and Purdue beat Alabama.
Illinois plays Alabama tonight, and Michigan has Auburn I believe next week? Good chance to establish the conference so that once we start playing each other it's all Q1 games.
Other end, in addition to those, Florida lost to Arizona, and Auburn lost to Houston, so SEC really struggling early in marquee games.
I think the ACC looks to be bouncing back somewhat, with UNC, NC State and Louisville all looking better than last year.
Big XII as good as ever. WVU beating Pitt wasn't surprising, but they killed them
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Although Washington needing 2OT to beat Southern at home isn't great
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The Big is quietly putting together a pretty good non-con season so far. 69-4, with the only losses being UCLA to a top 5 Arizona team, Maryland to Georgetown, Minnesota on the road to a decent Missouri team, and Washington on the road @ Baylor.
Purdue has taken down ranked Alabama (and a sneaky good Akron team that won the MAC last year)
MSU has now taken down ranked Arkansas and Kentucky.
Illinois has taken down ranked TT
IU and Maryland have taken down Marquette
OSU survived ND (a win is a win though)
Iowa has taken down Xavier
Nebraska took out Oklahoma
There are still some big tests left, but so far it is looking good for the Big Ten to look very strong this year.
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it's early
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Badgers get their first real test on Friday against a talented BYU team (The program that knocked them out of the tournament last year).
Interested to see UW face a real opponent. Curious what the rotation looks like when some chips are down.
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Illinois in trouble at the United Center. Looking like our streak of wins is about to end.
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Illinois goes down to Alabama. Not good for the conference but it makes Purdue's win look better, so I'll allow it. ;)
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Illinois goes down to Alabama. Not good for the conference but it makes Purdue's win look better, so I'll allow it. ;)
And then Purdue loses to Illinois later...
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And then Purdue loses to Illinois later...
It's possible, sure... But they only play once this season, and it's in Mackey, so I don't think it's all that likely.
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It's possible, sure... But they only play once this season, and it's in Mackey, so I don't think it's all that likely.
Should be a great game. Illinois is still not healthy and are already pretty good.
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(https://i.imgur.com/ZiV0Lam.jpeg)
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The refs in that Purdue Memphis game were......not good.
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The Trojans needed 3OT but all our teams won last night. We have some tough games tonight:
Wisconsin is an underdog at BYU.
Northwestern is an underdog in Wedt Virginia against UVA.
#1 Purdue has #15 TxTech in the Bahamas.
Nebraska is a 1.5 point favorite over KSU in KC.
The rest are double-digit favorites.
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The refs in that Purdue Memphis game were......not good.
Yeah, that was an officiating mess. Glad Purdue still pulled it out.
Memphis is exactly the type of team that has given us fits in the past... Long and athletic.
Hopefully it's not the same officiating crew tonight.
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(https://i.imgur.com/gQV6vuU.png)
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Purdue and Texas Tech were in a battle, until Purdue was up about 26-23. Then Purdue just went off. It was reminiscent to me of the Purdue vs Kansas NCAAT game years ago, where Purdue was hanging in until about 5 minutes into the second half, and then the hoop became the size of the ocean for Kansas and they simply made EVERYTHING they looked at.
Purdue at 26-23 went on a 20-0 run and blew the game wide open, and went to halftime with a 49-26 lead. That pretty much broke TTU and Purdue cruised in the second to a 30-point victory letting depth players and then some walk-ons into the game with 4 minutes left.
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Wisconsin shit the bed in SLC. BYU is really good. Money matters.
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[img width=273.619 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/gQV6vuU.png[/img]
Nebraska was a 1.5 point favorite and won but didn't cover.
Rough night for the league:
Wisconsin got smoked. They were a road underdog so the loss was expected but not by 28.
Northwestern lost as expected.
Rutgers was a huge favorite and lost badly at home to Central Connecticut.
At least UCLA, Purdue, and MSU took care of business.
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is that one of the metrics the committee considers at the end of the season???
covering the spread?
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is that one of the metrics the committee considers at the end of the season???
covering the spread?
It's baked into some of the metrics. Not covering the spread per se, but MOV/MOL
I'll say Purdue's A game is the best A game of any team in the country. They looked scary good last night. I think at their best, the only team that can play with them is maybe Houston, simply because their A defense can be shut down dominant
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Both PSU and Minnesota are slightly underdogs at home today so maybe we can pick up a positive upset or two.
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Both PSU and Minnesota are slightly underdogs at home today so maybe we can pick up a positive upset or two.
Or not :(
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These 4 team MTEs with manufactured title games, like the one MSU is playing in, is killing these 8 team MTEs.
Might be the worst Maui field ever. Atlantis has 6 mid-majors, plus Vandy and VT. Preseason NIT I don't think exists. MSU played in some decent field in those tournaments in Anaheim and Disney World. I think the Anaheim one is gone. The Disney one is 4 blah teams.
The Players Era event has good teams, but it's not a tournament.
Not having a good Maui to watch this week is a bummer
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These 4 team MTEs with manufactured title games, like the one MSU is playing in, is killing these 8 team MTEs.
Might be the worst Maui field ever. Atlantis has 6 mid-majors, plus Vandy and VT. Preseason NIT I don't think exists. MSU played in some decent field in those tournaments in Anaheim and Disney World. I think the Anaheim one is gone. The Disney one is 4 blah teams.
The Players Era event has good teams, but it's not a tournament.
Not having a good Maui to watch this week is a bummer
Agreed, the old eight-team actual tournaments were so much more fun for fans.
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These 4 team MTEs with manufactured title games, like the one MSU is playing in, is killing these 8 team MTEs.
Might be the worst Maui field ever. Atlantis has 6 mid-majors, plus Vandy and VT. Preseason NIT I don't think exists. MSU played in some decent field in those tournaments in Anaheim and Disney World. I think the Anaheim one is gone. The Disney one is 4 blah teams.
The Players Era event has good teams, but it's not a tournament.
Not having a good Maui to watch this week is a bummer
Rhode Island-Towson playing in the first game of the Disney World tournament.
In 2008 we played Maryland in the first round of that tournament, which also featured ranked Tennessee, Gonzaga, Georgetown teams, plus Oklahoma State and Wichita.
In 2014 we played Kansas in the championship of that tournament, the semis were Kansas-Tennessee and MSU-Marquette. The first round games were a little blah
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What is the reason for the drop in the 8 team MTE's ... you get 3 games instead of 2, not sure why schools are moving away from those?
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What is the reason for the drop in the 8 team MTE's ... you get 3 games instead of 2, not sure why schools are moving away from those?
I have to believe it is a money issue. I think the organizers get better ratings (and thus more money) out of a guaranteed name-vs-name game than they do out of an organic Championship that *COULD* end up being a name team against some no-name.
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Rutgers sure shouldn't have been paid to attend
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This Maui scene is sad. Zero chance I watch any of these games
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I cant even fake hate Michigan, because they buy a whole new roster every year. Its just a bunch of random dudes.
I can at least hate Purdue because their players have been a pain in the ass for multiple years
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This Maui scene is sad. Zero chance I watch any of these games
I mean the Maui scene is great. The Maui field is sad. The Vegas scene is sad, but the field is good
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(https://i.imgur.com/BAAZBWH.jpeg)
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I cant even fake hate Michigan, because they buy a whole new roster every year. Its just a bunch of random dudes.
I can at least hate Purdue because their players have been a pain in the ass for multiple years
I'd love to see lineup data on Michigan, mostly because that starting lineup they have is preposterous with the number of bigs they stuff in there.
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Yesterday was not good for the league. The Michigan schools, Indiana, USC, tOSU, PSU, UNL, and Iowa all won but they were all favored so no good surprises.
Maryland got stuffed in a trash can by Gonzaga, Rutgers lost to Notre Dame, and Oregon lost badly to SDSU in Las Vegas.
Today and tonight:
- USC is a small favorite over ASU in Maui.
- Michigan is a slight dog to Gonzaga in Vegas.
- Iowa is favored to beat Gran Canyon.
- Maryland is a big dog to Bama in Vegas.
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I'd love to see lineup data on Michigan, mostly because that starting lineup they have is preposterous with the number of bigs they stuff in there.
If you are a big man, why would you NOT go to Michigan at this point?
Granted, if you are a huge man, probably still Purdue
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If you are a big man, why would you NOT go to Michigan at this point?
Granted, if you are a huge man, probably still Purdue
At this point, you might not because they barely have enough minutes to go around for the ones they have.
I assume they’re not closing games with three guys who are 6-foot-9 or taller, two of which can’t shoot. But maybe they are.
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and they've got to be close to running out of money
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At this point, you might not because they barely have enough minutes to go around for the ones they have.
I assume they’re not closing games with three guys who are 6-foot-9 or taller, two of which can’t shoot. But maybe they are.
Yeah, that makes things difficult. Purdue has had years where they've wanted to put two bigs on the floor at the same time and it's not easy to do. You need a big who can play in the paint and defend in the paint. And then you need a big with the offensive skill set to play outside the paint, but ALSO the capability to defend the other team's 4.
I can think of a couple years where they've tried it but it didn't pan out:
- Purdue had Isaac Haas, Caleb Swanigan, and Vince Edwards on the roster at the same time. They wanted to play Haas at center, Swanigan at PF, and Vince at the wing. But Swanigan wasn't enough of an offensive threat at the 4 to make it work and couldn't properly defend the 4. Swanigan was an undersized 5 and nothing would change that. Edwards could offensively hold things down at the wing but wasn't quick enough to defend the other team's 3. He's a natural 4, not a 3.
- I recall one year with Trevion Williams and Matt Haarms. Haarms was basically a 7'3" power forward, whereas Williams was a 6'9" center. Ultimately neither player was 100% suited to their role, and it held the team back.
As I mentioned upthread, the problem for Purdue last year is that we basically had zero bigs. Jacobsen broke his leg at the beginning of the season, and the bigs we had behind him just weren't very good. So we were forced into playing TKR at the 5 where he's serviceable, but he's a natural 4. That limited the ceiling of the team.
This year, Purdue has a 1-2 punch at the 5 with Cluff and Jacobsen. They'll never be on the floor at the same time, but they're both actually pretty good. We're seeing 40-minute stat lines combining the two that rival Edey-level production. And the fact that we have both of them allows TKR to play the 4, his natural position. He never has to roll up to the 5. So even though Purdue is not going to completely use their height to dominate, they have the right pieces height-wise to actually have a very good TEAM.
There's a saying in basketball that who you are is who you can guard. If you can play the 4 on the offensive end but you can't guard the 4, you're not a 4.
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and they've got to be close to running out of money
Michigan always has more money
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Yeah, that makes things difficult. Purdue has had years where they've wanted to put two bigs on the floor at the same time and it's not easy to do. You need a big who can play in the paint and defend in the paint. And then you need a big with the offensive skill set to play outside the paint, but ALSO the capability to defend the other team's 4.
I can think of a couple years where they've tried it but it didn't pan out:
- Purdue had Isaac Haas, Caleb Swanigan, and Vince Edwards on the roster at the same time. They wanted to play Haas at center, Swanigan at PF, and Vince at the wing. But Swanigan wasn't enough of an offensive threat at the 4 to make it work and couldn't properly defend the 4. Swanigan was an undersized 5 and nothing would change that. Edwards could offensively hold things down at the wing but wasn't quick enough to defend the other team's 3. He's a natural 4, not a 3.
- I recall one year with Trevion Williams and Matt Haarms. Haarms was basically a 7'3" power forward, whereas Williams was a 6'9" center. Ultimately neither player was 100% suited to their role, and it held the team back.
As I mentioned upthread, the problem for Purdue last year is that we basically had zero bigs. Jacobsen broke his leg at the beginning of the season, and the bigs we had behind him just weren't very good. So we were forced into playing TKR at the 5 where he's serviceable, but he's a natural 4. That limited the ceiling of the team.
This year, Purdue has a 1-2 punch at the 5 with Cluff and Jacobsen. They'll never be on the floor at the same time, but they're both actually pretty good. We're seeing 40-minute stat lines combining the two that rival Edey-level production. And the fact that we have both of them allows TKR to play the 4, his natural position. He never has to roll up to the 5. So even though Purdue is not going to completely use their height to dominate, they have the right pieces height-wise to actually have a very good TEAM.
There's a saying in basketball that who you are is who you can guard. If you can play the 4 on the offensive end but you can't guard the 4, you're not a 4.
My lesson on this came from Bo Ryan and to a lesser extent Gard.
Fans on message boards, including me, were always wanting people to play up a position. Like having two 6-foot-11 centers, or seeing if the 6-foot-7 power forward could be a big wing, or 6-foot-7, wing could be a guard.
And then Bo would sit three guys 6-foot-10 or taller to have a 6-foot-7 fire hydrant with long arms check Greg Oden. Or a year later, they'd go three guards, none taller than 6-foot-2 and two 6-foot-7 guys to play down the stretch against really good teams.
It's nice to have big teams, but defensive mobility, especially at the 4 is real key.
(TKR is odd to me because he seems like a really nice offensive 5, but he's just not there at that spot defensively. I'm not sure he's aces there on defense at the 4, but with giants behind him, it kinda works. I still remember that JJJ/Ward/Bridges MSU team that was quite good, but didn't feel like it was better than the sum of its parts because those three never felt like a really smooth fit)
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Apparently Michigan is the real deal. Dusty May felt like a dream hire when it happened and that reality is visible.
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Something's missing...
(https://i0.wp.com/playcollegebasketball.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Black-Basketball-Match-Instagram-Post-YouTube-Thumbnail.png?fit=830%2C467&ssl=1)
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Finished dinner, watching MSU/Carolina, Go Spartans!
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So MSU is 8-0, just picked up their 3rd win over a ranked team, and I dont think anyone would rank them in the top 2 in conference. Big Ten should have three top 5 teams come Monday
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Badgers start their thanksgiving tourney by putting up 104 in a win over Providence.
Got TCU tomorrow today and a win would be nice.
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I can remember win Providence played defense
(https://i.imgur.com/HMo1nv0.jpeg)
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Purdue is a huge favorite and cruising but we have five other teams in action today and all five are in games with single-digit spreads that could realistically go either way:
- #13 Illinois +4.5 vs #5 UCONN at MSG 12:30 on FOX (already underway)
- Washington -2.5 vs Colorado in California, 430 on truT
- Wisconsin -6.5 vs TCU in San Diego, 530 on FOX
- Ohio State -5 at Pitt, 7 on ESPN2
- Minnesota +5.5 vs Santa Clara in California, 930 on truT
A lot of hoops today.
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Certainly is a good matchup for Braden Smith to practice his no-look passing...
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Ugh.
Illinois lost to UCONN, UW and UDub are getting drilled.
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Badgers start their thanksgiving tourney by putting up 104 in a win over Providence.
Got TCU tomorrow today and a win would be nice.
Well this plan isn't going well. They fell behind, cut it to 4 at halftime, got powerfully blitzed.
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Not a great day for the conference
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Welp
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Exciting ending in Pittsburgh
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Well that sucked.
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Exciting ending in Pittsburgh
Exciting for Pitt
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Exciting for Pitt
Well it looked good with 3.7 seconds to go . . .
Horrible day for the league:
- Illinois drilled by UCONN
- Washington drilled by Colorado
- Wisconsin lost by double digits to TCU
- Minnesota lost by double digits to Santa Clara
- Ohio State lost to Pitt.
At this point I think that the Buckeyes are, at best, a bubble team.
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Well it looked good with 3.7 seconds to go . . .
Horrible day for the league:
- Illinois drilled by UCONN
- Washington drilled by Colorado
- Wisconsin lost by double digits to TCU
- Minnesota lost by double digits to Santa Clara
- Ohio State lost to Pitt.
At this point I think that the Buckeyes are, at best, a bubble team.
11 isn't 40, but both are double digits.
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11 isn't 40, but both are double digits.
Just an ugly day for the league. The only win was Purdue beating the little sisters of the poor.
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Heres my hot take. MSU has already beaten Arkansas, Kentucky, and UNC, but the best team they will have played will be Iowa tomorrow
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(https://i.imgur.com/E5tsDRg.png)
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There are some really good games tonight.
Iowa vs. MSU (one unbeaten goes down).
Uconn @ Kansas
Florida @ Duke
North Carolina @ Kentucky
Oklahoma @ Wake Forrest could be sneaky good.
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Miss this being Big Ten-ACC Challenge week, granted it suffered from expansion as well
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Massey composite rankings...40 computers
- MICHIGAN
- Duke
- PURDUE
- Arizona
- Gonzaga
- Iowa State
- MICHIGAN STATE
- Houston
- Louisville
- Vanderbilt
- Alabama
- Connecticut
- BYU
- Tennessee
- INDIANA
- Auburn
- Florida
- Kansas
- St. John's
- ILLINOIS
- USC
- IOWA
- North Carolina
- Texas Tech
- Kentucky
26. Nebraska
40. Wisconsin
44. Ohio State
48. UCLA
59. Northwestern
70. Washington
84. Penn State
93. Oregon
95. Maryland
130. Rutgers
137. Minnesota
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Conference road games always tough, even in December
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Minnesota beat Indiana?
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(https://i.imgur.com/tiqSNob.jpeg)
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Count me as skeptical on USC. That Maui field was the worst ever, comfortably. I remember people worrying with the 2017 field, which only had 3 ranked teams, one was Wichita State, they failed to land an ACC or Big XII team, and Cal was the Pac 10 rep
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Still trying to decide whether I'm going to try to get tickets for Purdue @ USC. Not going to try to get UCLA because it's a Tuesday evening... No way in hell I'm trying to drive to see that! But the USC game is a Saturday afternoon...
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I had a random thought last night because I used to sometimes enjoy conference tournaments more than the NCAA tournament. Because I thought the quantity overwhelmed the slight quality difference. The conference expansions has sort of changed that.
It feels like because the top conferences have gobbled everyone up, there are fewer 2-3 bid leagues fighting for bids. You have the 1 bid leagues, and the power leagues where you are trying to figure out if to blah teams play, whether who wins that game matters, and that game usually happens on Thursday. By the weekend, the results don't matter. Nobody actually cares who wins these tournaments. There's a reason it's the Big Ten Tournament, and not the Big Ten Championship Tournament. It's a tournament. It's fun, but so is Maui.
What if we figured out a formula, based on the last 1-2 seasons, plus the preseason, to determine how many bids each conference "earned". Puts big weight on the regular season to stay above that cut line, and then the tournament is for whatever the last spot is.
So the one bid leagues, nothing changes. The larger conferences, it makes those tournaments fun again. When the Big Ten had 11 teams, it started Thursday, and everyone played by the next day. Now there are 3 days before the last teams join in. before, #10 Northwestern could beat another bad #7 team, then they were one upset away from being in the semifinal, and you were interested. Now, #17 Northwestern needs to win 3 games, just to get to Friday. Those teams aren't playing themselves in.
So, for instance, last year, the Big Ten got 8 teams in. I'm not saying the formula would say 8, but lets say it did.
Top 7 are in, and don't play in the BTT. That means the last auto-bid is Illinois, but it creates drama on that 7 line. The other 11 teams enter a tournament for that 8th slot. PSU isn't winning the as-is BTT. But the as-is BTT isn't a thing. It's literally just a tournament to determine the auto-bid. And whoever wins it was going to be in anyway, so who cares. Now, it's an 11 team tournament, with Oregon as the 1 seed, to determine the "auto-bid" as that 8th team. Can PSU win that tournament? Still, probably not, but possibly. But can Indiana? Ohio State? Rutgers? Possibly. That's a fun tournament
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I had a random thought last night because I used to sometimes enjoy conference tournaments more than the NCAA tournament. Because I thought the quantity overwhelmed the slight quality difference. The conference expansions has sort of changed that.
It feels like because the top conferences have gobbled everyone up, there are fewer 2-3 bid leagues fighting for bids. You have the 1 bid leagues, and the power leagues where you are trying to figure out if to blah teams play, whether who wins that game matters, and that game usually happens on Thursday. By the weekend, the results don't matter. Nobody actually cares who wins these tournaments. There's a reason it's the Big Ten Tournament, and not the Big Ten Championship Tournament. It's a tournament. It's fun, but so is Maui.
What if we figured out a formula, based on the last 1-2 seasons, plus the preseason, to determine how many bids each conference "earned". Puts big weight on the regular season to stay above that cut line, and then the tournament is for whatever the last spot is.
So the one bid leagues, nothing changes. The larger conferences, it makes those tournaments fun again. When the Big Ten had 11 teams, it started Thursday, and everyone played by the next day. Now there are 3 days before the last teams join in. before, #10 Northwestern could beat another bad #7 team, then they were one upset away from being in the semifinal, and you were interested. Now, #17 Northwestern needs to win 3 games, just to get to Friday. Those teams aren't playing themselves in.
So, for instance, last year, the Big Ten got 8 teams in. I'm not saying the formula would say 8, but lets say it did.
Top 7 are in, and don't play in the BTT. That means the last auto-bid is Illinois, but it creates drama on that 7 line. The other 11 teams enter a tournament for that 8th slot. PSU isn't winning the as-is BTT. But the as-is BTT isn't a thing. It's literally just a tournament to determine the auto-bid. And whoever wins it was going to be in anyway, so who cares. Now, it's an 11 team tournament, with Oregon as the 1 seed, to determine the "auto-bid" as that 8th team. Can PSU win that tournament? Still, probably not, but possibly. But can Indiana? Ohio State? Rutgers? Possibly. That's a fun tournament
And just to play it out, based on the actual results last year (adjusting for H/A)
THURSDAY
#11 Washington d. #6 Northwestern
#7 USC d. #10 Penn State
#8 Iowa d. #9 Nebraska
FRIDAY
#1 Oregon d. #8 Iowa
#2 Indiana d. #7 USC
#3 Ohio State d. #11 Washington
#4 Rutgers d. #5 Minnesota
SATURDAY
#1 Oregon d. #4 Rutgers
#2 Indiana d. #3 Ohio State
SUNDAY
#1 Oregon d. #2 Indiana
So, Oregon still gets the bid, but those games, with actual stakes, is so much better than the actual meaningless conference tournaments
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And just to play it out, based on the actual results last year (adjusting for H/A)
THURSDAY
#11 Washington d. #6 Northwestern
#7 USC d. #10 Penn State
#8 Iowa d. #9 Nebraska
FRIDAY
#1 Oregon d. #8 Iowa
#2 Indiana d. #7 USC
#3 Ohio State d. #11 Washington
#4 Rutgers d. #5 Minnesota
SATURDAY
#1 Oregon d. #4 Rutgers
#2 Indiana d. #3 Ohio State
SUNDAY
#1 Oregon d. #2 Indiana
So, Oregon still gets the bid, but those games, with actual stakes, is so much better than the actual meaningless conference tournaments
I really like this idea but I have a question. Before I get to my question, here is why I like this:
One thing about BB is that, as an Ohio State fan, I've seen my team pretty much everywhere on the map. @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) sometimes points out that I really struggle to understand the motives of say Purdue fans in Football because for my entire Ohio State football fandom, Ohio State has been at or near the top almost every year. Basketball is different. I've seen my team as the #1 seed in the BTT and as a NCAA bubble team needing a run and I've seen them as the last seed in the BTT (11 back when we had 11 teams). I don't have to try to figure out what other fanbases think because you name it, my team has been there.
When my team has been an easy NCAA lock, the BTT always feels like an exhibition. I want my team to avoid a bad loss so as not to diminish seeding in the NCAA and it is fun to win but I care a lot more about getting out of it with no injuries.
When my team is at the bottom (needing to win the BTT to get in to the NCAA) I kinda keep track of it but I know that realistically the worst team in the BTT isn't going to make it to the NCAA. Basically, I'll start getting excited if they get to the semi-finals (or at least the quarter-finals).
When my team is a bubble team, that is when the BTT is the most interesting to me. I'm talking about a situation where Ohio State needs a difficult but achievable two or three wins. Maybe Ohio State needs three wins and those break down as:
- A game that they should win, and
- A roughly toss-up game, an
- One upset.
That is exciting. It isn't like when you are the #11 seed in an 11-team tournament and you need five upsets in five days. We all know that the chances of that are slim an none. When you need the three games I laid out above, you probably have something like a 25% chance of getting it. That is enough to be excited about.
Looking at the above, what they need:
- #11 Washington needs four upsets in four days. Probably not happening but at least they don't have to play Purdue. It isn't altogether impossible.
- #7-10 (USC, IA, UNL, PSU) need to win a toss-up then three upsets. Unlikely, not impossible.
- #4-5 (MN, RU) need to win a toss-up then two minor upsets.
- #1-3 (Ore, IU, tOSU) need to win a game they should then two toss-ups. Exciting, possible.
Now my question:
What would you do about bid thieves?
One bid leagues are easy because they get one bid no matter what but what about a league with one team good enough to get in as an at-large and then a bunch of bad teams. What if the one good team gets upset?
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Ohio State has a BB game tomorrow that almost zero Ohio State fans are even going to realize is happening. The thing is, it is a REALLY important game.
Ohio State is looking like a bubble team and I *THINK* they are maybe slightly better than Northwestern but the game is in Evanston so it feels like at best a toss-up. If the Buckeyes are going to make the Tournament, it is games like this one that they need to find a way to win.
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I like the idea. The issue is that it's completely unworkable. You can't hamstring the selection committee into "you HAVE to select this many teams from the B1G" preseason because you don't know what the strength of the league will be year-to-year. And you can't have them say prior to the conference tournament that they're allotting X bids to the league b/c of bid thieves.
They will NOT accept anything that takes away their Christmas: Selection Sunday.
So... Cool idea. I'd find it a lot of fun if it happened. It just... won't.
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Still trying to decide whether I'm going to try to get tickets for Purdue @ USC. Not going to try to get UCLA because it's a Tuesday evening... No way in hell I'm trying to drive to see that! But the USC game is a Saturday afternoon...
Take the motorcycle and engage in a little lane-splitting.
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Take the motorcycle and engage in a little lane-splitting.
The bike I sold in 2004?
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oh, I agree it will never happen. But from a fan standpoint it would make the end of the regular season fun, because you're watching those cut lines, and then make every single conference tournament do or die. And not like now where by Friday the big conference tournaments dont matter
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The bike I sold in 2004?
What would you do that for, it's the ultimate cheat code for LA traffic?
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and just sips gasoline
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What would you do that for, it's the ultimate cheat code for LA traffic?
Well, after the 75 mph highside and not having the money to fix it at that young age, I had to sell... Then had kids and never got another one.
Not sure I'd want one now, with all the cell-phone distracted drivers out there...
I want another one, of course, but the first thing I'd do is take off everything that makes it street legal and make it a track day bike.
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Well, after the 75 mph highside and not having the money to fix it at that young age, I had to sell... Then had kids and never got another one.
Not sure I'd want one now, with all the cell-phone distracted drivers out there...
I want another one, of course, but the first thing I'd do is take off everything that makes it street legal and make it a track day bike.
If it's bumper to bumper, then your only risk is someone opening their door, no?
(https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th/id/OIP.hfivIbhB6e476c92chTaFwHaE8?cb=ucfimg2&ucfimg=1&rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain&o=7&rm=3)
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OSU has their hands full with Northwestern.
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Not a great early afternoon
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Surprised by the Purdue beatdown. Didn't see that coming.
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Surprised by the Purdue beatdown. Didn't see that coming.
I've been avoiding this thread as I was watching time-delayed, but Purdue's down 25 with <4m to go on my TV, so I figured all the activity in this thread meant they lost...
Honestly, I hate like hell to see my team lose. But I think ultimately this might be good for them. I don't think this beatdown was due to a lack of talent or suggests this team isn't as good as billed. I feel (and some things I've seen over the last several games) that they've had so many things going their way that they just assume that things will always go their way.
Sometimes getting punched in the mouth is the wake-up call you need. Reminds you that you have to bring it 100%, every game, every minute. Because when you're a team this good, your opponent ALWAYS will. All it takes to get an L is to let up... Never let up.
Pretty sure Painter is going to keep this game on tap as a teachable moment all season long.
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Seeing Wisconsin pound Market soothes always my soul.
I wonder how much longer they will keep Shaka Smart. I hear the natives are getting a little down on him.
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Seeing Wisconsin pound Market soothes always my soul.
I wonder how much longer they will keep Shaka Smart. I hear the natives are getting a little down on him.
This Marquette team looks bad. Just not good.
I still don’t feel great about this badgers team, but it is funny that has basically settled into your standard man rotation that feels pretty decent about the starters and a couple of reserve wings.
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Looks like not a good day for Ohio State football but this win by the basketball team in Evanston was huge.
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Duke wins ACC in football, IU wins BIG in football (before they win a single B1G hoops tournament btw)...surely this is the year Nebraska wins a tournament game, no?
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no
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Duke wins ACC in football, IU wins BIG in football (before they win a single B1G hoops tournament btw)...surely this is the year Nebraska wins a tournament game, no?
(https://i.imgur.com/YmXehyo.png)
Mitch stole this from ya
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So what is being a basketball school like? What do I need to do differently?
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Step 1 is a Billy Donovan tattoo.
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Step 1 is a Billy Donovan tattoo.
Bet!
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I liked Billy as a player and a coach
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(https://i.imgur.com/s60xiqK.jpeg)
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(https://i.imgur.com/LOs2Vv1.jpeg)
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Massey composite rankings...40 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- MICHIGAN (1)
- Duke (2)
- Arizona (4)
- Iowa State (6)
- Gonzaga (5)
- PURDUE (3)
- Vanderbilt (10)
- Connecticut (12)
- MICHIGAN STATE (7)
- BYU (13)
- Alabama (11)
- Houston (8)
- Louisville (9)
- ILLINOIS (20)
- North Carolina (23)
- Kansas (18)
- Florida (17)
- St. John's (19)
- Texas Tech (24)
- Arkansas (-)
- Saint Mary's (-)
- NEBRASKA (-)
- Auburn (16)
- Georgia (-)
- Tennessee (14)
27. Iowa (22)
29. USC (21)
32. Wisconsin (40)
33. Indiana (15)
34. UCLA (48)
36. Ohio State (44)
63. Washington (70)
75. Northwestern (59)
83. Penn State (84)
102. Maryland (95)
104. Oregon (93)
126. Minnesota (137)
143. Rutgers (130)
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Florida should be consistently great at every sport. Its probably the easiest gig outside of Texas. But somehow they were whatever for decades, until hiring the best coaches of their generation (Spurrier/Donovan), and then otherwise perpetually underachieved unless they looked the other way to hire a coach who looked the other way (Urban/Golden)
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(https://i.imgur.com/tfR1T9V.jpeg)
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feels like there have been more blowouts than normal in games between power five schools this year
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Wisconsin is not good. No identity on defense at all.
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Didn't realize how backloaded Michigan's Big Ten schedule is.
They are 2 games into a 12 game stretch where they play no ranked teams, 9 of those 12 games are at home.
Then 7 of their final 11 games are against ranked teams, 6 on the road.
They will be pretty heavy favorites to be 18-0 when they host #23 Nebraska on January 27, and then play at #9 MSU 3 days later.
They have #25 UCLA, at #6 Purdue, #3 Duke, and at #13 Illinois in a 2 week span in late February.
MSU plays 1 more ranked Big Ten opponents than UM, but they at no point face 2 in a row
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Marquette @ Purdue starts in under an hour.
Let me tell you just how insanely happy I am that they're putting a game like this on Peacock. You know, after they told us that the whole point of the BTN was so that we'd never miss one of our team's games. I understand that the BTN doesn't show everything... But it should be networks, ESPN, and then BTN.
fPeacock. fNBC.
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(https://i.imgur.com/6Fc8xwU.png)
#14 vs #22 on peacock as well
ranked Big Ten matchups must not be worth much $$$
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BTN does have a college basketball quintupleheader straight from 12 to 10
But it does seem like Peacock has jumped it in terms of quality of games.
What irritates me is how often live sports are on BTN+, and you go to actual BTN and its a "classic" from 2 months ago.
The amount of live baseball and hockey is terrible. They do better with volleyball and wrestling. Granted I hate wrestling
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knowing Huskers fans as I do............. ratings will be pretty good for this afternoon's game
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Nebrasketball is ranked? :smiley_confused1:
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an undefeated - crazy daze!
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This team is not nearly good enough to turn the ball over like that.
Conference road game caveat and all, that is about the worst road environment in the conference. Thats a loss against any other Big Ten team on the road, and probably 10 teams at home
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Holy Shit!!!
Didn't think this could happen
big win on the road. This team might be pretty good.
(https://i.imgur.com/CLcwk0r.jpeg)
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Buckeyes pulled one out by the skin of their teeth
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Buckeyes pulled one out by the skin of their teeth
The Buckeyes are a Bruce Thornton away from being Rutgers
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The Buckeyes are a Bruce Thornton away from being Rutgers
I really wish that kid had been around before NIL.
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The Buckeyes are a Bruce Thornton away from being Rutgers
Honestly, are they even Rutgers without him? This team is . . . not good.
The win in Evanston gives me *SOME* hope for a Tournament bid but the road loss to Pitt shows that most road games are at best a toss-up and the home loss to an Illinois team that Nebraska beat in Champaign shows that the Buckeyes are a HUGE step below the top of the league.
They are currently 8-2/1-1 with 18 league games and 3 OOC games remaining. If you figure 12 losses (including BTT) is probably in, then they have nine to give but I'm having trouble seeing that happen.
First the three OOC games:
- Grambling at home they should obviously win (if not the rest of this is moot)
- #14 UNC in ATL is a likely loss.
- #24 UVA in Music City is a likely loss.
That would get them to 9-4/1-1 with 18 league games left and only seven losses to give.
League home games:
- #23 UNL is a likely loss
- #25 UCLA is a likely loss
- Minnesota should be a win
- Penn State should be a win
- #2 Michigan is a likely loss
- USC is close to a toss-up
- UW is close to a toss-up
- #6 PU is a likely loss
- IU should be a win
I get 5-4 assuming they split the USC/UW games and they are obviously going to lose more than three league road games.
League road games:
- Rutgers they should win
- Oregon they should win
- UDub is a toss-up
- #2 Michigan is a near-certain loss
- Wisconsin is a likely loss
- Maryland they should win
- #9 MSU is a near-certain loss
- Iowa is a likely loss
- Penn State they should win
I get call it 4-5.
So that adds up to 18-13/10-10 heading into the BTT. Last year they were 17-14, lost their BTT opener, and missed the NCAA. I'm looking at the schedule and getting one game better this year. They'd probably need at least one win in the BTT, maybe more.
The bubble really is a knife edge. If you take one or two of the games that I have as a "should be a win" and make them losses, they'll go to the BTT needing to win it. Conversely, if you take one or two of the games that I have as a "likely loss" and make them wins, they'll head to the BTT securely in the NCAA and only playing for seeding.
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What happens if they win all the likely losses, and lose all the likely wins?
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What happens if they win all the likely losses, and lose all the likely wins?
IMHO, it is mostly irrelevant. I think they can trade bad losses for good wins all day long.
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What happens if they win all the likely losses, and lose all the likely wins?
This is obviously a ridiculous question because Ohio State isn't realistically going to win all the tough games and lose all the easy ones but it does relate to a point that I do think is important. Ohio State is 8-2/1-1 with 21 games remaining so here are those games roughly sorted (using @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's composite rankings) into what I *THINK* is easiest/most likely win (#1) to toughest/most likely loss (#21):
- vs nr Grambling on 12/23
- vs #126 Minnesota on 1/20
- at #143 Rutgers on 1/2
- vs #83 Penn State on 1/26
- at #102 Maryland on 2/5
- at #104 Oregon on 1/8
- at #83 Penn State on 3/4
- at #63 Washington on 1/11
- vs #34 UCLA on 1/17
- vs #33 Indiana on 3/7
- vs #32 Wisconsin on 2/17
- vs #29 USC on 2/11
- vs #? UVA in Nashville on 2/14
- at #32 Wisconsin on 1/31
- at #27 Iowa on 2/25
- vs #22 Nebraska on 1/5
- vs #15 UNC in ATL on 12/20
- vs #6 Purdue on 3/1
- vs #1 Michigan on 2/8
- at #9 MSU on 2/22
- at #1 Michigan on 1/23
IMHO, 19-12 is basically knife edge. Probably in but might fall out with a bad BTT loss or a strong bubble. 20-11 is almost certainly in and 18-13 would require an unlikely run in the BTT. So to get to 19-11 by winning the easiest games they would have to win #1-11 which also presumes that they would lose #12-21.
Per @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) 's ridiculous example, suppose that Ohio State lost #1-10 and somehow won #11-21. We can't really say WHAT the committee would do with that because I don't think there has ever been a resume that goofy. Those bottom 11 would be some INCREDIBLY good wins, but losing at home to Grambling, Minnesota, and Penn State would also be REALLY bad and I would guess that the committee would just basically offset the bad losses against the good wins and put the Buckeyes in.
When I said that I thought the Buckeyes could probably trade bad wins for good losses all day long I was thinking more of the usual case. Ie, if the Buckeyes went 11-10 over these 21 games by winning #1-9 but then lost at home to Indiana and Wisconsin but then won at home over USC and in Nashville over UVA and lost #14-21 that is 11-10, they would finish 19-12 and I think they'd be right on the edge and in no different of a situation than they would be if they had won the home games against IU and UW but lost to USC and UVA. Ie, I think that trading a minor upset win for a minor upset loss is a non-issue. I also think that trading a MAJOR upset loss for a MAJOR upset win (ie if the Buckeyes lost at home to Grambling but won in Ann Arbor or East Lansing) is also basically a non-issue. They just offset.
However, I do NOT think that all upsets are equal. I think that trading MAJOR upset wins for minor upset losses is good and that trading MAJOR upset losses for minor upset wins is bad. Ie:
- If the Buckeyes lost at home to Grambling, won vs USC, and otherwise won the easiest and lost to toughest to get to 19-12 that would be worse than just winning the easiest 11 because the loss to Grambling would be BAD.
- If the Buckeyes won at Michigan, lost at home to USC and otherwise won the easiest and lost the toughest to get to 19-12 that would be better than just winning the easiest 11 because the win at Michigan would be a REALLY good win.
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- vs nr Grambling on 12/23
- vs #126 Minnesota on 1/20
- at #143 Rutgers on 1/2
- vs #83 Penn State on 1/26
- at #102 Maryland on 2/5
- at #104 Oregon on 1/8
- at #83 Penn State on 3/4
- at #63 Washington on 1/11
- vs #34 UCLA on 1/17
- vs #33 Indiana on 3/7
- vs #32 Wisconsin on 2/17
- vs #29 USC on 2/11
- vs #? UVA in Nashville on 2/14
- at #32 Wisconsin on 1/31
- at #27 Iowa on 2/25
- vs #22 Nebraska on 1/5
- vs #15 UNC in ATL on 12/20
- vs #6 Purdue on 3/1
- vs #1 Michigan on 2/8
- at #9 MSU on 2/22
- at #1 Michigan on 1/23
From my view, the Buckeyes' season hinges on the seven games from #7-13:
- #1-6 they definitely should win. They are PSU at home and a bunch of teams with triple-digit rankings.
- #14-21 would take very unlikely upsets to win. Wisconsin and Iowa do NOT appear to be all that good but they are still probably better than Ohio State and Carver-Hawkeye and the Kohl Center are tough especially when the home team is better than you. The rest of the teams are just a lot better than Ohio State, particularly the four games against #1 Michigan, #6 Purdue, and #9 MSU.
That leaves the seven games from #7-13. There are road games against PSU and UDub. Ohio State is pretty clearly better than those teams but road games are tough. Then there are home games against relative equals (UCLA, IU, UW, USC) and a neutral site game against UVA. As I see it, the Buckeyes need to go 5-2 in this group to end up 19-12 overall.
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Michigan on an interesting stretch. Beating USC and they could be 17-0 heading into Indiana. The fact that Maryland took 27 three point shots, shot 52% from 3 and Michigan still won by 18 is crazy. They are LOADED as a team.
Also, David Coit from Maryland is unreal when he's feeling it.
(https://i.imgur.com/IzWGwL4.png)
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Michigan on an interesting stretch. Beating USC and they could be 17-0 heading into Indiana. The fact that Maryland took 27 three point shots, shot 52% from 3 and Michigan still won by 18 is crazy. They are LOADED as a team.
Also, David Coit from Maryland is unreal when he's feeling it.
(https://i.imgur.com/IzWGwL4.png)
IMHO, Indiana isn't THAT good. Michigan *SHOULD* be 20-0 when they go to East Lansing in late January and if they manage to win in the Breslin Center then they *SHOULD* be 24-0 when they head to Mackey in mid-February.
That said, "Should" and "Will" are obviously two very different things. Conference road games can be tough even against teams that you *SHOULD* beat. Travelling to the West Coast to play UDub in Seattle could get hairy and you just never know when some middling team is going to have a 'game of their lives' on a random day.
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IMHO, Indiana isn't THAT good. Michigan *SHOULD* be 20-0 when they go to East Lansing in late January and if they manage to win in the Breslin Center then they *SHOULD* be 24-0 when they head to Mackey in mid-February.
That said, "Should" and "Will" are obviously two very different things. Conference road games can be tough even against teams that you *SHOULD* beat. Travelling to the West Coast to play UDub in Seattle could get hairy and you just never know when some middling team is going to have a 'game of their lives' on a random day.
Agree with all of that..I think all opposition preps different when a team has a #1 or #2 label and ensure they're giving their best because that upset can be more meaningful. Especially from teams that think they may be on the border of NCAA selection committee.
I also think the travel to the west coast or travel from west back out east is downplayed when in reality can be draining.
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(https://i.imgur.com/7RhpEQk.jpeg)
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I also think the travel to the west coast or travel from west back out east is downplayed when in reality can be draining.
The other thing that makes the West Coast road trips hokey is that the way they are doing it you usually have two games out there so the second one is a different set of issues than the first. The second one you don't have a long flight and you might actually have LESS travel than the home team but . . . you will have been living out of a suitcase on the road for a few days which has issues as well. It may also impact the first game back. Here is Michigan's West Coast road trip and the games before and after:
- vs Wisconsin at home on Saturday 1/10
- at Washington on Wednesday, 1/14
- at Oregon on Saturday, 1/17
- vs Indiana on Tuesday, 1/20
Lots of potential issues here:
Washington's game prior to Michigan is a home game against Ohio State on 1/11. That should be advantage UDub even though they play a day later because UDub has ZERO travel.
Oregon's game prior to Michigan is a road game at Nebraska on 1/13. Thus Oregon actually has to travel a LOT further for their HOME game against Michigan than the Wolverines who are only coming from Seattle.
Indiana's game prior to Michigan is a home game against Iowa on 1/17. Thus Michigan actually has to travel a LOT further for their HOME game against Indiana than the Hoosiers who are only coming from Bloomington.
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Didn't realize how backloaded Michigan's Big Ten schedule is.
They are 2 games into a 12 game stretch where they play no ranked teams, 9 of those 12 games are at home.
Then 7 of their final 11 games are against ranked teams, 6 on the road.
They will be pretty heavy favorites to be 18-0 when they host #23 Nebraska on January 27, and then play at #9 MSU 3 days later.
They have #25 UCLA, at #6 Purdue, #3 Duke, and at #13 Illinois in a 2 week span in late February.
MSU plays 1 more ranked Big Ten opponents than UM, but they at no point face 2 in a row
Mentioned that a week ago
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Massey composite rankings...42 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- MICHIGAN (1)
- Duke (2)
- Arizona (3)
- Gonzaga (5)
- Iowa State (4)
- Connecticut (8)
- PURDUE (6)
- BYU (10)
- MICHIGAN STATE (9)
- Vanderbilt (7)
- Houston (12)
- Louisville (13)
- NEBRASKA (22)
- Alabama (11)
- ILLINOIS (14)
- Kansas (16)
- North Carolina (15)
- Arkansas (20)
- St. John's (18)
- Georgia (24)
- Florida (17)
- Texas Tech (19)
- IOWA (-)
- Auburn (23)
- Tennessee (25)
28. USC (29)
31. Indiana (33)
36. UCLA (34)
42. Ohio State (36)
46. Wisconsin (32)
60. Washington (63)
73. Northwestern (75)
88. Oregon (104)
98. Penn State (83)
104. Maryland (102)
116. Minnesota (126)
152. Rutgers (143)
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that's more like it
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Sam Hoiberg leads college basketball in assist to turnover ratio. 44-8. Incredible
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Sam Hoiberg leads college basketball in assist to turnover ratio. 44-8. Incredible
That's a crazy number!
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Massey composite rankings...42 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- MICHIGAN (1)
- Duke (2)
- Arizona (3)
- Gonzaga (5)
- Iowa State (4)
- Connecticut (8)
- PURDUE (6)
- BYU (10)
- MICHIGAN STATE (9)
- Vanderbilt (7)
- Houston (12)
- Louisville (13)
- NEBRASKA (22)
- Alabama (11)
- ILLINOIS (14)
- Kansas (16)
- North Carolina (15)
- Arkansas (20)
- St. John's (18)
- Georgia (24)
- Florida (17)
- Texas Tech (19)
- IOWA (-)
- Auburn (23)
- Tennessee (25)
28. USC (29)
31. Indiana (33)
36. UCLA (34)
42. Ohio State (36)
46. Wisconsin (32)
60. Washington (63)
73. Northwestern (75)
88. Oregon (104)
98. Penn State (83)
104. Maryland (102)
116. Minnesota (126)
152. Rutgers (143)
How did Maryland get so bad at basketball?
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How did Maryland get so bad at basketball?
Eh.. They may not be bad, but have had a buzzsaw of a schedule. When your last 5 games are Gonzaga, Alabama, Iowa and Michigan in the mix and your next game is Virginia. It's going to be a pretty rough period for a lot of teams.
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Eh.. They may not be bad, but have had a buzzsaw of a schedule. When your last 5 games are Gonzaga, Alabama, Iowa and Michigan in the mix and your next game is Virginia. It's going to be a pretty rough period for a lot of teams.
Yes, but they lost by 39 to Gonzaga, 33 to Alabama, 19 to Iowa, and 18 to Michigan.
They also only beat UMBC by 1, lost to Georgetown, and needed OT to beat Mount St. Mary's
KenPom has them #100. Right between Illinois State and High Point.
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Really needing UW to win on Friday. If they want to look not discombobulated, that’d be great, but a win there makes the tournament path clearer.
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Yes, but they lost by 39 to Gonzaga, 33 to Alabama, 19 to Iowa, and 18 to Michigan.
They also only beat UMBC by 1, lost to Georgetown, and needed OT to beat Mount St. Mary's
KenPom has them #100. Right between Illinois State and High Point.
Gonzaga lost to Michigan by 40. Does that mean they suck? Auburn lost to Michigan by 40 and Arizona by 29.
I get the rest of the stats you are using and they're far more than one offs like I'm pointing out. I'm just saying it's probably the worst point in the season from a timing perspective to analyze Maryland. Not that their schedule is void of good opposition in the future, but after watching them I don't think they're bad.
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I actually do think Auburn isn't good. Don't think they suck, but don't think they are any good either
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Gonzaga lost to Michigan by 40. Does that mean they suck? Auburn lost to Michigan by 40 and Arizona by 29.
I get the rest of the stats you are using and they're far more than one offs like I'm pointing out. I'm just saying it's probably the worst point in the season from a timing perspective to analyze Maryland. Not that their schedule is void of good opposition in the future, but after watching them I don't think they're bad.
Eh. One bad game doesn't mean a team sucks. Purdue lost to Iowa State by 23. Does that mean Purdue suddenly sucks?
No. Sometimes a game just gets out of hand. Purdue led that game by 5 at one point a little past the 10 minute mark, and was only down 4 at the half. But then ISU went on a heater to start the second half and in 3 1/2 minutes of game time, it ballooned to 15 points.
That's one data point. OTOH, Purdue has handled everyone else on their schedule. All but one was a double digit margin, including a lopsided (30 point) win over ranked Texas Tech on a neutral court. The closest win was over Alabama, by 7, in Tuscaloosa.
But Maryland doesn't have that sort of a resume. As @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) points out, they have multiple other lopsided losses, and narrow wins over teams they should have handled better. Their weakness looks like more than just a tough schedule.
They don't have the body of work to excuse a lopsided loss, especially because they have so many of them...
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Maybe just need to get through the holidays and get back in rhythm, but third straight blah game from MSU. No coincidence that it is coincided with Fears having three straight bad games.
Continuing to shoehorn Wojcik in as the backup PG is mking things worse
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I actually do think Auburn isn't good. Don't think they suck, but don't think they are any good either
They might suck
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PSU, woof
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Massey composite rankings...41 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- MICHIGAN (1)
- Arizona (3)
- Iowa State (5)
- Duke (2)
- Gonzaga (4)
- PURDUE (7)
- Connecticut (6)
- Vanderbilt (10)
- BYU (8)
- Houston (11)
- MICHIGAN STATE (9)
- NEBRASKA (13)
- Alabama (14)
- Louisville (12)
- ILLINOIS (15)
- Kansas (16)
- North Carolina (17)
- Texas Tech (22)
- Tennessee (25)
- IOWA (23)
- Georgia (20)
- Arkansas (18)
- Florida (21)
- St. John's (19)
- Kentucky (-)
29. USC (28)
36. UCLA (36)
39. Indiana (31)
43. Ohio State (42)
53. Wisconsin (46)
66. Washington (60)
77. Oregon (88)
78. Northwestern (73)
104. Minnesota (116)
106. Maryland (104)
122. Penn State (98)
149. Rutgers (152)
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(https://i.imgur.com/Pbzu7og.jpeg)
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Life on the bubble:
Lunardi currently has Ohio State among the "last four in" but that is so close to moving either way. Ohio State has had four games decided by a single point:
- 64-63 over Notre Dame at home.
- 67-66 loss at Pittsburgh
- 89-88 over WVU in Cleveland
- 71-70 loss to UNC in Atlanta
If you take two baskets away from Ohio State, one each in the ND and WVU games, the Buckeyes would be 6-5 and not even in the bubble discussion. If you give Ohio State two extra baskets, one each in the Pitt and UNC games, the Buckeyes are 10-1 and ranked.
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a bit early for the bubble watch in my opinion
might want to play a handful of conference games first
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(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/4c061a65e787ec172f86bc5b82ddb4dea4141a2e/c=0-48-6711-3840&r=x1683&c=3200x1680/local/-/media/2018/03/14/USATODAY/USATODAY/636566245958898276-USATSI-9945908.jpg)
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Didn't realize how backloaded Michigan's Big Ten schedule is.
They are 2 games into a 12 game stretch where they play no ranked teams, 9 of those 12 games are at home.
Then 7 of their final 11 games are against ranked teams, 6 on the road.
They will be pretty heavy favorites to be 18-0 when they host #23 Nebraska on January 27, and then play at #9 MSU 3 days later.
They have #25 UCLA, at #6 Purdue, #3 Duke, and at #13 Illinois in a 2 week span in late February.
MSU plays 1 more ranked Big Ten opponents than UM, but they at no point face 2 in a row
undefeated Huskers hosting Sparty Friday night in the Vault
(https://i.imgur.com/6hMRJ3L.jpeg)
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undefeated Huskers hosting Sparty Friday night in the Vault
The B1G has not one but two ranked-vs-ranked games on Friday:
#24 USC visits the Crisler Center to take on #2 Michigan at 7pm on Peacock.
#9 MSU visits Pinnacle Bank Arena to take on #13 Nebraska at 9pm on Peacock.
How do we have two ranked-vs-ranked games and neither of them are reasonably viewable?
What I also don't understand is that we also have two other games which each overlap each other and BOTH of the aforementioned ranked-vs-ranked games and they are also on Peacock.
My Buckeyes are in Jersey to take on Rutgers. The first half should be simultaneous with the second half of USC@M and the second half should be simultaneous with MSU@UNL.
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How do we have two ranked-vs-ranked games and neither of them are reasonably viewable?
piss poor management - could be making some decent $$$ - but no
on the bright side,............ I'm at my brother's place and he has pee-cock
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(https://i.imgur.com/b1zaemO.png)
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How do we have two ranked-vs-ranked games and neither of them are reasonably viewable?
Because Peacock is contracted to get a couple of games per week and they just lucked out that USC and Nebraska are much better than expected this year.
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(https://i.imgur.com/b1zaemO.png)
Normally you don't hate getting a road game this week, with no students, but Nebraska fans will plenty show up. Feels like we are walking into a hornets nest
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Massey composite rankings...47 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- MICHIGAN (1)
- Arizona (2)
- Gonzaga (5)
- Iowa State (3)
- Duke (4)
- PURDUE (6)
- Connecticut (7)
- Vanderbilt (8)
- BYU (9)
- MICHIGAN STATE (11)
- Houston (10)
- ILLINOIS (15)
- Alabama (13)
- NEBRASKA (12)
- North Carolina (17)
- Kansas (16)
- Louisville (14)
- Texas Tech (18)
- Tennessee (19)
- IOWA (20)
- Georgia (21)
- Arkansas (22)
- Florida (23)
- St. John's (24)
- Virginia (-)
30. USC (29)
33. UCLA (36)
39. Indiana (39)
42. Ohio State (43)
52. Wisconsin (53)
56. Washington (66)
76. Oregon (77)
78. Northwestern (78)
101. Maryland (106)
104. Minnesota (104)
127. Penn State (122)
151. Rutgers (149)
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(https://i.imgur.com/opFKf45.jpeg)
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[img width=273.619 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/opFKf45.jpeg[/img]
So . . .
Any chance Nebraska has a letdown their next game out? Who do they play next anyway? 😉
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let me look..................
Monday evening in Columbus, OH
I'll probably be watching from a Hooters or BWW in Springfield, MO
yes, they could start thinking they're pretty good, but they also know going on the road is tough.
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let me look..................
Monday evening in Columbus, OH
You don't say?
going on the road is tough.
It is but oddly the Buckeyes are 2-0 on the road, 0-1 at home, and likely to be 0-2 at home after Monday night.
It isn't because road games aren't tough, it is a quirk of Ohio State's schedule. Through mid-January the Buckeyes will continue playing good teams at home and not-so-good teams on the road. Using the rankings provided above by @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) here is Ohio State's league schedule through January 17:
- W at NU, #78
- L vs IL, #12
- W at RU, #151
- Vs UNL, #14
- At Ore, #76
- At UDub, #56
- Vs UCLA, #33
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You don't say?
I'll have the 26 husker football schedule memorized by the end of the month
not accustomed to paying attention to hoops
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Purdue with a tough road matchup today at Wisconsin.
I know it seems Wisconsin isn't at their usual level, and Purdue has evolved into a far more offensive minded team over the years, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see a typical rock fight between these teams at the Kohl.
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I think last night showed why Wojcik keeps getting minutes at the backup 1.
Devine is better, but there are no good options behind him right bow at the 2. So theyll keep giving him his minutes at the 2. Seems like they were caught off guard, and rightfully so, by Richardson being one and done
With no Devine last night, out with an injury, it became ABUNDANTLY clear how front court heavy this team is.
Cooper needs to get his form back, or this team is #5 in the Big Ten at best. It cant be all Fears and Kohler
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Purdue with a tough road matchup today at Wisconsin.
I know it seems Wisconsin isn't at their usual level, and Purdue has evolved into a far more offensive minded team over the years, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see a typical rock fight between these teams at the Kohl.
Having this game during the 49ers loss is really messing with my mood.
I'm not really mad at or surprised by the final outcome, but it wasn't pleasant to go through.
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I think last night showed why Wojcik keeps getting minutes at the backup 1.
Devine is better, but there are no good options behind him right bow at the 2. So theyll keep giving him his minutes at the 2. Seems like they were caught off guard, and rightfully so, by Richardson being one and done
With no Devine last night, out with an injury, it became ABUNDANTLY clear how front court heavy this team is.
Cooper needs to get his form back, or this team is #5 in the Big Ten at best. It cant be all Fears and Kohler
https://twitter.com/i/status/2007502584219914576
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I watched the game - amazed at the reluctance to do ANYTHING in the paint by either team
that's a great way to score less than 60
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Braden Smith passed Cassius Winston last night to become the B1G all-time career assist leader.
Smith has a realistic shot at the NCAA record given his game averages, from what I understand.
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Looked it up. At his current season average of 9.6 apg, Smith would need just over 19 games to take the record.
There are 17 remaining regular season games, plus whatever the Boilers do in the conference and NCAA tournaments.
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I was curious if he was going to also set an NCAA record for minutes played. He has played 124 games, started all of them, and has averaged over 30 mpg every season.
Somehow, likely not even close. He's played a lot of minutes. He's currently at 4,166 minutes. For comparison, Cassius finished his career at 4,003 (no BTT or NCAA tourney his senior year due to COVID).
But the NCAA record is 5,747 minutes. Let's say Purdue plays 3 BTT games and 4 NCAA games. That's 24 more games. He's averaging 32.1 mpg this year, but that will probably go up in conference play, so let's say 34. That still puts him at 4,982 minutes. Nearly 800 minutes short.
Looked up how that happened, and it's Jacob Gilyard from Richmond, who got the free COVID year. So he played 5 seasons, averaging 36.5+ mpg in all 5. It would have been way higher if Richmond had actually been good. In those 5 seasons he only played in 13 postseason games (including A10 tournament games). He is the NCAA record holder in steals by an absurd margin as well.
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Here is hoping that Nebraska has been busy celebrating their win over MSU for the last few days and not preparing for tonight's game!
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just checked into the hotel in Springfield, MO
headed to Hooters to watch the game
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(https://i.imgur.com/i3x4XYo.jpeg)
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This Cincinnati-West Virginia game reminds me of the time that Bob Huggins went on the air and forgot what century he was in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIsehteMQpU
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Didn't expect the worst game of the night to be UCLA-Wisconsin
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Didn't expect the worst game of the night to be UCLA-Wisconsin
Home Court was strong tonight!
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UCLA could stay overnight and still not make a 3
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There are some potential interesting games tonight in the other conferences.
Iowa St. @ Baylor.
Alabama @ Vandy
SMU @ Clemson
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Didn't expect the worst game of the night to be UCLA-Wisconsin
I was thankful.
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pretty sure Mizzou is playing
I just pulled into Columbia
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pretty sure Mizzou is playing
I just pulled into Columbia
Kentucky
Big time border war, right there.
(https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th/id/OIP.z0Mi2CZbJmbZyLqyNtNH6wHaDm?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain&o=7&rm=3)
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was a good and entertaining game
wasn't on behind the bat at Hooters when I sat down, Had to tell the bartender to change the channel
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Guessing UK donors didnt buy a $25 million roster to go to the NIT
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Texas Tech and Houston probably paid more
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In the WAC's final year, the teams are all playing each other thrice during the regular season.
Très bizarre.
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WACky
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Guessing Dana Altman will not be back next year
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I didn't watch because it is on BTN but what happened for tOSU to run away?
From ESPN play-by-play:
- Oregon hit a 3 to make it a 3 point game at 46-43 with 14:05 to go.
- The next time Oregon scored a point it was a 3 to make it a 21 point game at 67-46 with 6:43 to go.
So Ohio State had a 21-0 run over 7:22? Wow. I wouldn't have guessed that Ohio State's defense could hold air scoreless for 7 minutes.
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(https://i.imgur.com/OJrvL2O.png)
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a bit early for the bubble watch in my opinion
might want to play a handful of conference games first
I know this was from a couple weeks ago but I wanted to address it because I know you aren't accustomed to following basketball so I'll explain my view:
Yes it IS early for bubble watch. There is a lot of basketball to be played so obviously a team on the bubble like Ohio State could either get hot and move off the bubble in a good way or get cold and move off the bubble in a bad way. That said, my interest isn't so much in the current bubble but in having an idea, in my head, of what impact an unexpected result has.
Example #1, your team, Nebraska. Lunardi currently has them as a #3 seed. He has them in the South Region (Houston) and playing their first weekend games in OKC against #14 Temple then the UF/MiamiOH winner. Only the #3 part of that would be relevant to me if I were a Nebraska fan. What that means is that a few positive upsets would move Nebraska up to a #2 or potentially a #1 while a few negative upsets would knock them down to a #4 or #5. The exact seed, region, first weekend location, and opponents will change a lot but the general idea that Nebraska is currently looking like a #3 seed tells me what I need to know.
Example #2, my team, Ohio State. Lunardi currently has them as THE LAST bye, getting a #10 seed in the West (San Jose) and playing their first weekend games in Portland against #7 Utah State then the Gonzaga/MontanaSt winner. Again, the exact seed, region, first weekend location, and opponents will change a lot but the general idea that Ohio State is VERY close to the cut-line tells me what I need to know. It tells me that a few positive upsets give some breathing room and potentially move Ohio State up but I'm not sure that I even want that because 8/9 has a VERY limited chance to make the S16. However, I do want positive upsets because Ohio State is on the knife edge. One or two negative upsets and Ohio State is on the outside looking in.
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Nebrasketball, you've picked the wrong day for a letdown game.
Get a hold of yourself, please!
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And in response to my urging, Nebraska goes on a 9-0 run. Thank you.
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been a good 2nd half team - :bravo_2:
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Thank you, Nebraska.
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played some Defense in the 2nd half
I was gonna sign up for Youtube TV this morning to watch this game, unfortunately a friend showed up and caused me to miss signing up.
Base Plan - 21-day free trial - $82.99/mo
Thought that was a good thing when down by 16 - listened on the radio.....
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The football school gave the basketball school a scare in Bloomington, but the basketball school pulled it out
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The football school gave the basketball school a scare in Bloomington, but the basketball school pulled it out
Now Wisconsin is leading Michigan about midway through the second half in Ann Arbor and Penn State is holding their own in West Lafayette so far. I'm not suggesting that I expect those scores to hold up but, intersting day so far.
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Now Wisconsin is leading Michigan about midway through the second half in Ann Arbor and Penn State is holding their own in West Lafayette so far. I'm not suggesting that I expect those scores to hold up but, intersting day so far.
Wisconsin is on a 96 point pace against KenPom's #1 defense...and it's tied 65-65. So seems unlikely
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nice road win for the Badgers
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How bout them Badgers
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Wisconsin is on a 96 point pace against KenPom's #1 defense...and it's tied 65-65. So seems unlikely
Shows what I know
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Wisconsin is on a 96 point pace against KenPom's #1 defense...and it's tied 65-65. So seems unlikely
Purdue looks safe even if the game is closer than expected but Wisconsin managed a huge upset in Ann Arbor, wow.
I expected that the Wolverines would drop a league game eventually but I figured it would be a road game, maybe on short rest.
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Didn't see that one coming.
Maybe the Badgers are finally coming together.
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Penn State probably pushed Purdue further than they liked, but Purdue pulled away. With about 5:30 to go, PSU closed it to 7, but then Purdue stretched it to 15 in about 40 seconds of game time with a couple of steal / fast break / and-1 plays.
Braden Smith scored 26 pts and dished 14 ast for his double-double, and Oscar Cluff dominated inside with 23 points in 30 minutes.
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Didn't see that one coming.
Maybe the Badgers are finally coming together.
Greg Gard is still good at this.
Schedule sets up interestingly. At Minnesota projects is a bit of a tossup, then five games where they’re projected with a 65 percent chance to win or better. If they can win at least five from that, in great shape. Four or less, it’s a tougher road.
After that, it’s two of the three toughest remaining games back-to-back, then five-ish tossups in a row, followed by a bad Maryland team at home, then at Purdue.
Realistically, they need to pull at least eight more wins to dance, which seems the goal considering some transfer struggles. Hopefully that’s doable.
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Badgers have to many good shooters to be as poor as they had been from outside the arc. Were due for an adjustment.
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Badgers have to many good shooters to be as poor as they had been from outside the arc. Were due for an adjustment.
If they wanna shoot that way going forward, I’d accept that.
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Buckeyes tournament hopes took a big hit in Seattle.
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Ohio State is 8-2/1-1 with 21 games remaining so here are those games roughly sorted (using @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's composite rankings) into what I *THINK* is easiest/most likely win (#1) to toughest/most likely loss (#21):
- vs nr Grambling on 12/23 - WON
- vs #126 Minnesota on 1/20
- at #143 Rutgers on 1/2 - WON
- vs #83 Penn State on 1/26
- at #102 Maryland on 2/5
- at #104 Oregon on 1/8 - WON
- at #83 Penn State on 3/4
- at #63 Washington on 1/11 - LOST
- vs #34 UCLA on 1/17
- vs #33 Indiana on 3/7
- vs #32 Wisconsin on 2/17
- vs #29 USC on 2/11
- vs #? UVA in Nashville on 2/14
- at #32 Wisconsin on 1/31
- at #27 Iowa on 2/25
- vs #22 Nebraska on 1/5 - LOST
- vs #15 UNC in ATL on 12/20
- vs #6 Purdue on 3/1
- vs #1 Michigan on 2/8
- at #9 MSU on 2/22
- at #1 Michigan on 1/23
IMHO, 19-12 is basically knife edge. Probably in but might fall out with a bad BTT loss or a strong bubble. 20-11 is almost certainly in and 18-13 would require an unlikely run in the BTT. So to get to 19-11 by winning the easiest games they would have to win #1-11 which also presumes that they would lose #12-21.
I did this almost a month ago and, unfortunately, things are not trending well for the Buckeyes. Note the addition of results in BOLD above.
3-2 sounds good and the loss to Nebraska isn't bad considering that at this point they are a top-10 team but the loss to Washington is problematic. It is early so nothing is really a 'must win' but for each loss that Ohio State takes in games 1-11 above, they are going to need a win in one of games 12-21 above. The Buckeyes' next two games are home games against UCLA (#9 above) and Minnesota (#2 above). If they lose either of those I doubt that they'll make the NCAA.
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This is the 4th straight year of complete mediocrity. I'll pay more attention if they beat someone with a pulse.
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Badgers live and die by the three, and they've done a lot of dying this year. But they were hot in Ann Arbor.
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Associated Press Top-25 rankings.
The Huskers, now 16-0 this season, jumped up two spots in this week’s poll to No. 8, tying the highest rating in program history set in 1966.
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Badgers live and die by the three, and they've done a lot of dying this year. But they were hot in Ann Arbor.
My view:
- This isn't unique to the Badgers. I don't have data at hand and don't want to take the time to look it up but it certainly seems that the three is a MUCH bigger part of the game than it was not too long ago.
- I think that reliance on the three creates higher variability because on a good night any team is going to put up a LOT of points.
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my view as well
seems teams really don't try to score in the paint any longer. At least the few games I've watched.
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This is the 4th straight year of complete mediocrity. I'll pay more attention if they beat someone with a pulse.
They FINALLY did what needed to be done wrt the previous coach but at this point the current coach's seat should be considered warm at a minimum.
I don't know enough about NIL to know for sure but it would seem likely to me that Ohio State has at least enough NIL funding that they *SHOULD* be able to field a competitive team so this is unacceptable*.
- Likely to miss NCAA AGAIN in 2026
- 17-14/9-11 finish to regular season in 2025, lost BTT opener, no further postseason
- 19-12/9-11 finish to regular season in 2024, 1-1 in BTT, 2-1 in NIT
- 13-18/5-15 finish to regular season in 2023, 3-1 in BTT, no further postseason
- 19-10/12-8 finish to regular season in 2022, lost BTT opener, 1-1 in NCAA
- 18-8/12-8 finish to regular season in 2021, 3-1 in BTT, embarrassing 15 over 2 upset in NCAA (how the hell did we get a #2 seed with an 18-8 overall record? They did got 3-1 in the BTT but in retrospect it was a four point win over a bad MN, an OT win over PU, and a one point win over Michigan. This team wasn't appreciably better than 2022, 2024, or 2025.
- 21-10/11-9 finish to regular season in 2020, no BTT or further postseason due to COVID.
- 18-13/8-12 finish to regular season in 2019, 1-1 in BTT, 1-1 in NCAA.
- 24-7/15-3 finish to regular season in 2018, 0-1 in BTT, 1-1 in NCAA.
- 17-14/7-11 finish to regular season in 2017, 0-1 in BTT, no further postseason.
- 19-12/11-7 finish to regular season in 2016, 1-1 in BTT, 1-1 in NIT.
- 22-9/11-7 finish to regular season in 2015, 1-1 in BTT, 1-1 in NCAA.
- 23-8/10-8 finish to regular season in 2014, 2-1 in BTT, 0-1 in NCAA (lost the play-in).
- 23-7/13-5 finish to regular season in 2013, 2-1 in BTT, 3-1 in NCAA.
Seasons in BOLD missed the NCAA.
2025/26 is the 13th season since the last time Ohio State played a second weekend NCAA game. I believe that is an all-time worst drought for the program (in terms of absence from the S16).
*I don't know the in's and out's of NIL well enough to know which of the following is true, either:
- Ohio State isn't spending enough NIL on BBall to compete, or
- Ohio State isn't properly allocating BBall NIL.
That said, it is either one of the two above of the coach isn't coaching well enough or some combination of the three.
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my view as well
seems teams really don't try to score in the paint any longer. At least the few games I've watched.
What I think we've been seeing is that teams ONLY try to shoot three-pointers OR score in the paint. There's very little midrange game.
The analytics seem to have shown that the midrange 2-point shot was too low of a shooting percentage to be worth it for only 2 points, i.e. your "expected point per attempt" isn't high enough.
Get closer [into the paint] and your expected points go up due to higher shooting percentage; move further away [beyond the arc] and your expected points go up due to an extra point being awarded for making the basket.
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What I think we've been seeing is that teams ONLY try to shoot three-pointers OR score in the paint. There's very little midrange game.
The analytics seem to have shown that the midrange 2-point shot was too low of a shooting percentage to be worth it for only 2 points, i.e. your "expected point per attempt" isn't high enough.
Get closer [into the paint] and your expected points go up due to higher shooting percentage; move further away [beyond the arc] and your expected points go up due to an extra point being awarded for making the basket.
As a data guy, it always annoyed me when MY team would shoot a long two because of the expected points issue you outlined above. However, now that EVERYBODY has pretty much abandoned the midrange game in favor of taking shots almost exclusively from either point blank or behind the arc, I don't like what it has done to the game.
What makes it worse is that I don't think it can be fixed without RADICAL changes such as:
- Raising the rim: This sounds a bit insane because it is radical but my argument for it is that when Nasmith invented the game over 100 years ago 6-footers were probably rarer than 7-footers are now. Thus, raising the rim up to 11' would put today's players the same distance from it that the players of 100+ years ago were from the 10' rim.
- Changing the scoring structure such that the long range shot gets a smaller bonus. Ie, instead of 2 and 3 go to 3 and 4. That way the bonus would only be 33.33% instead of 50%.
- Pushing the arc back and/or making in uniform.
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What I think we've been seeing is that teams ONLY try to shoot three-pointers OR score in the paint. There's very little midrange game.
The analytics seem to have shown that the midrange 2-point shot was too low of a shooting percentage to be worth it for only 2 points, i.e. your "expected point per attempt" isn't high enough.
Get closer [into the paint] and your expected points go up due to higher shooting percentage; move further away [beyond the arc] and your expected points go up due to an extra point being awarded for making the basket.
they pass up layups to shoot 3s
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I'm all right with basketball right now. With the charge/block rules there is real value to attack the paint while also allowing defenders to play defense. Three pointers seems to have hit their peak, too.
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Shaky starts to both halfs, but a 26-2 run exploded a 53-53 tie to 79-55
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Wisconsin rallied from down 11, play the end badly, but bail themselves out with a buzzer-beater to avoid OT.
The second game this season showing some real high-end grit. Also means a win in a key swing game. Feeling pretty neat about it.
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starting to believe in Nebrasketball
(https://i.imgur.com/gjhebwR.jpeg)
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Wisconsin rallied from down 11, play the end badly, but bail themselves out with a buzzer-beater to avoid OT.
The second game this season showing some real high-end grit. Also means a win in a key swing game. Feeling pretty neat about it.
Grit is great--so was the win (suck it, SFGopher!)--but there will be games, could be the first round of the tourney, when the 3s just don't fall. It's a shaky foundation.
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Grit is great--so was the win (suck it, SFGopher!)--but there will be games, could be the first round of the tourney, when the 3s just don't fall. It's a shaky foundation.
My thought on this team is just getting to the tournament would be enough.
Two of their top three portal additions just haven’t been good enough at role guys. The top three is good, but also not super high ceiling for most of the year (the guards have had the moments, and Winter has been quite good, but not run a game great).
The part about the 3s I shrug at. They’re just jumpers. Really valuable ones. If they were more reliant on long 2s that’s not good. If they were more reliant on post ups/drives/drawing fouls, a tournament whistle can spell just as much trouble as open 3s not falling, probably more.
The main issue with this team is the defense just isn’t all that good or cohesive. Winter is a nice enough rim protector, but not an ace, and the perimeter defenders have all been inconsistent, with Carrington and sometimes Blackwell and Janicki being the best. If your defense is that, you’ll have to bet on high-upside offense.
Upcoming stretch is interesting. They project to be favored by 4 or more in the next five, with four home games, none against top opponents, and a trip to Penn State. Considering they have 12 wins, and 19 is probably lock territory, cashing in at least four of those five would be big. (Especially with almost entirely long shots or tossups the rest of the way)
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Rock fights from here out
https://twitter.com/SpartyWRLD/status/2011454365819863507?s=20
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Rock fights from here out
https://twitter.com/SpartyWRLD/status/2011454365819863507?s=20
Izzo is so happy.
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My thought on this team is just getting to the tournament would be enough.
According to @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's table, Ohio State and Wisconsin are nearly identical and I think the situation is similar for both. On any given good day they can have a great game and light someone up (ie, UW winning in Ann Arbor) but on a bad day they are vulnerable to any B1G team. I think both will wind up somewhere close to the bubble with the difference being a few buckets here or there. Despite @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's table ranking them almost identically, Wisconsin seems to be in a little better place largely because of the upset win in Ann Arbor.
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According to @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's table, Ohio State and Wisconsin are nearly identical and I think the situation is similar for both. On any given good day they can have a great game and light someone up (ie, UW winning in Ann Arbor) but on a bad day they are vulnerable to any B1G team. I think both will wind up somewhere close to the bubble with the difference being a few buckets here or there. Despite @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's table ranking them almost identically, Wisconsin seems to be in a little better place largely because of the upset win in Ann Arbor.
The table is just net efficiency and conference play, which isn’t all that meaningful early on.
I saw one metric that has OSU in worse shape by a decent margin, though I suppose that reflects Ohio State being a bit behind and having a bunch oh harder games ahead.
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Yeah, it's like a 6 game sample size.
However, KenPom has Wisconsin #37 and Ohio State #38
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Yeah, it's like a 6 game sample size.
However, KenPom has Wisconsin #37 and Ohio State #38
That’s true. I don’t pay for KenPom, and thus am using T-Rank where the gap is 36-43, but it just looks like UW is in a better spot.
The Badgers are a win ahead, have the Michigan win and a slightly better set of Q1/Q2 wins. But more than that, the schedule stands out.
Again, per T-Rank, Wisconsin has three games harder than at OSU. The Buckeyes have seven games harder than that one. Wisconsin has five games left vs teams better than OSU, two at home. OSU has seven vs teams better than UW, three at home, one neutral.
Not that OSU can’t make it work, but with fine margins and needing the big wins, the path is tighter.
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BPI has OSU #36 and Wisconsin #37.
But the resume metrics favor Wisconsin, and Wisconsin has the substantially easier schedule going forward. Wisconsin actually has the easiest remaining schedule in the conference, based on BPI, which is the only free metric which measures that.
Wisconsin has been the 5th "luckiest" team in the conference, which is just essentially record vs. expected record based on efficiencies. Which is why I love SOR when it comes to selecting teams. Don't use it to gamble, but use it to choose teams. OSU is #16. Sadly USC and Rutgers are #1 and #2
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hawks gave the boilers a game tonight
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Not that OSU can’t make it work, but with fine margins and needing the big wins, the path is tighter.
That is my concern and speaking of that, the Buckeyes host UCLA on Saturday. It is probably too early in the season to call a game a "must win" but this is awfully close. UCLA is a better team but not by all that much (29 vs 35 in BPI) and Ohio State has what should be some major advantages:
- For the Bruins this is the second half of a long road-trip.
- UCLA will be on three days rest after playing at PSU on Wednesday.
- Ohio State is at home.
- Ohio State should be well rested having played their last game at Washington on Sunday.
In theory the Buckeyes could lose this and still make the NCAA but it would require a much less likely victory down the road. The path is already narrow for the Buckeyes so they can ill afford losses in winnable games.
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That is my concern and speaking of that, the Buckeyes host UCLA on Saturday. It is probably too early in the season to call a game a "must win" but this is awfully close. UCLA is a better team but not by all that much (29 vs 35 in BPI) and Ohio State has what should be some major advantages:
- For the Bruins this is the second half of a long road-trip.
- UCLA will be on three days rest after playing at PSU on Wednesday.
- Ohio State is at home.
- Ohio State should be well rested having played their last game at Washington on Sunday.
In theory the Buckeyes could lose this and still make the NCAA but it would require a much less likely victory down the road. The path is already narrow for the Buckeyes so they can ill afford losses in winnable games.
Per T-Rank, UCLA is the fifth-most likely win left out of 15.
With 11 wins, you’d like at least seven more, likely eight?
If they can win that one, the four easiest, Wisconsin at home at Penn State, you need one upset to get to that eight. That makes it sound less bad.
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I’m realizing that bad Wisconsin means a better chance that I could actually see them in person in the tournament. That’s interesting.
Whereas, if they are good, they either get a spot in the Midwest or get banished to be one of the not quite top seeds in a western locale because of the unbalanced sites.
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From ESPN - "Twenty men have been charged in a point-shaving scheme involving more than 39 college basketball players on 17 NCAA Division I teams, leading to more than 29 games being fixed, according to a federal indictment unsealed Thursday in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. Fifteen of the defendants played college basketball during the 2023-24 and/or 2024-25 seasons, according to the indictment."
https://twitter.com/espn/status/2011826569816195331
(https://i.imgur.com/HK9WAU1.png)
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Per T-Rank, UCLA is the fifth-most likely win left out of 15.
With 11 wins, you’d like at least seven more, likely eight?
If they can win that one, the four easiest, Wisconsin at home at Penn State, you need one upset to get to that eight. That makes it sound less bad.
This is more-or-less exactly how I analyze it.
It wouldn't take anything ridiculous for the Buckeyes to make the tournament. That said, I wouldn't bet on it because even if they beat UCLA, get one upset, win at PSU, and beat UW in Columbus they'd still be likely out if they suffer a negative upset somewhere along the way.
On wins my thinking pretty much matches yours:
- 20-11 or better is almost certainly in.
- 19-12 is probably in but could be left out with a bad BTT loss and/or a strong bubble.
- 18-13 would require a REALLY good run in the BTT.
- 17-14 or worse is almost certainly out.
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Just learned Purdue doesn't play road games at Michigan, MSU, or Illinois. Immediately put in $ on them to win the Big Ten
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Just learned Purdue doesn't play road games at Michigan, MSU, or Illinois. Immediately put in $ on them to win the Big Ten
I've been beating the drum about uneven conference schedules in football in the mega-conference era but it applies to BB as well. This has actually been an issue for a while in BB but the mega-conference change makes it a bigger issue. Those and at Nebraska are probably the four toughest games that Purdue could possibly have in the league and somehow they miss three of the four, wow.
Purdue's league road games this year:
- Rutgers, won 81-65
- Wisconsin, won 89-73
- USC, 1/17
- UCLA, 1/20
- Indiana, 1/27
- Maryland, 2/1
- Nebraska, 2/10
- Iowa, 2/14
- Ohio State, 3/1
- Northwestern, 3/4
Here are B1G teams sorted by BPI rank and whether or not Purdue visits them this year:
- 2 Michigan, no
- 7 Purdue, n/a
- 8 Illinois, no
- 18 MSU, no
- 20 UNL, 2/10
- 23 IU, 1/27
- 29 UCLA, 1/20
- 30 Iowa, 2/14
- 35 tOSU, 3/1
- 36 UW, won
- 50 USC, 1/17
- 54 UDub, no
- 60 NU, 3/4
- 72 MN, no
- 74 Ore, no
- 82 UMD, 2/1
- 104 PSU, no
- 126 RU, won
Note for @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , this isn't to denigrate Purdue it is just looking at the reality that schedules in the mega-conference era can vary a LOT.
Also note that with 18 teams and 20 league games each team plays three teams twice. For Purdue those are #6 IU, #8 Iowa, and #10 UW. Thus, Purdue only plays four total games and only one road game against the top-5 teams in the league and the ONE road game is against #5.
If we were doing tier-based projections (more on that in a later post) I think we'd project them to go either 19-1 (loss in Lincoln) or 18-2 (Lincoln and Bloomington).
Then if you look at Michigan which is a consensus better team they'd have a lower projection because they play:
- AT #2 PU on 2/17
- AT #3 Illinois on 2/27
- AT #4 MSU on 1/30
- vs #4 MSU on 3/8
- vs #5 UNL on 1/27
Against the top-5:
- Michigan has 5 games, 3 on the road.
- Purdue has 4 games, 1 on the road.
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On tiers:
For those not familiar: For years we operated a projection system that used tiers where each team was expected to win all of their home games except those against teams two or more tiers higher and lose all of the road games except those against teams two or more tiers lower.
This ended up serving a few functions for us:
- It gave us a reasonably accurate projection of where all the teams would finish, and
- It helped us to avoid the "talking head trap" of thinking that a team on a streak was Great/Terrible without looking at the schedule to realize that they were actually on a streak because they had a particularly easy/tough stretch.
As an example, Michigan finishes the regular season on a six game stretch of:
- AT Purdue
- vs DOOK in DC
- vs Minnesota
- AT Illinois
- AT Iowa
- vs MSU
That is brutal. To be honest, 3-3 would be pretty good, 4-2 would be very good, and anything better than that would be amazing. Now if they end up going 2-4 that honestly isn't all that bad but I guarantee that there will be talking heads shouting "What is wrong with Michigan?" Well the answer would be that nothing is "wrong", they just played a REALLY tough stretch of games. No reason for wailing and gnashing of teeth among the Wolverine fans.
Now the problem. It has gotten awfully big for me to try to manage it. What I used to do was to assign tiers then use that to calculate a mathematical projected record on a double-round-robin. Then I'd back out the games not played to come up with a mathematical projection before upsets. Then I'd add in positive upsets and subtract out negative upsets to come up with a final mathematical projection. Then I had each game with either a result or an assigned projection and used that to come up with a separate projection and I double-checked the two projections against each other to make sure I had everything entered right.
Back when we had 14 teams and 20 games each team only had six "games not played" so this was manageable. Now that we have 18 teams and 20 games each team has 14 games not played so it is a data-entry nightmare.
I just thought I'd throw this out there to get suggestions. One thought I have is that I could make it a Google Sheet and then share it with a few of you guys and that way we could split up the data entry. I'd make the "shell" and then just pass it along for others to enter games not played and individual games.
Thoughts?
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I've been beating the drum about uneven conference schedules in football in the mega-conference era but it applies to BB as well. This has actually been an issue for a while in BB but the mega-conference change makes it a bigger issue. Those and at Nebraska are probably the four toughest games that Purdue could possibly have in the league and somehow they miss three of the four, wow.
Purdue's league road games this year:
- Rutgers, won 81-65
- Wisconsin, won 89-73
- USC, 1/17
- UCLA, 1/20
- Indiana, 1/27
- Maryland, 2/1
- Nebraska, 2/10
- Iowa, 2/14
- Ohio State, 3/1
- Northwestern, 3/4
Here are B1G teams sorted by BPI rank and whether or not Purdue visits them this year:
- 2 Michigan, no
- 7 Purdue, n/a
- 8 Illinois, no
- 18 MSU, no
- 20 UNL, 2/10
- 23 IU, 1/27
- 29 UCLA, 1/20
- 30 Iowa, 2/14
- 35 tOSU, 3/1
- 36 UW, won
- 50 USC, 1/17
- 54 UDub, no
- 60 NU, 3/4
- 72 MN, no
- 74 Ore, no
- 82 UMD, 2/1
- 104 PSU, no
- 126 RU, won
Note for @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , this isn't to denigrate Purdue it is just looking at the reality that schedules in the mega-conference era can vary a LOT.
Also note that with 18 teams and 20 league games each team plays three teams twice. For Purdue those are #6 IU, #8 Iowa, and #10 UW. Thus, Purdue only plays four total games and only one road game against the top-5 teams in the league and the ONE road game is against #5.
If we were doing tier-based projections (more on that in a later post) I think we'd project them to go either 19-1 (loss in Lincoln) or 18-2 (Lincoln and Bloomington).
Then if you look at Michigan which is a consensus better team they'd have a lower projection because they play:
- AT #2 PU on 2/17
- AT #3 Illinois on 2/27
- AT #4 MSU on 1/30
- vs #4 MSU on 3/8
- vs #5 UNL on 1/27
Against the top-5:
- Michigan has 5 games, 3 on the road.
- Purdue has 4 games, 1 on the road.
Not to derail the basketball thread, but that's why I kind of liked a 4 team tournament for the CCG.
End the season a week earlier, then on Thanksgiving weekend #1 hosts #4, and #2 hosts #3. Then going down 5-6, 7-8, 9-10, 11-12, 13-14, 15-16, and 17-18 play. For those you can shuffle to avoide rematches, but those would all be conference games. Then the winners of the "semis" would go to Indy. Now that they reformatted the playoff and made the Big Ten and SEC Championships irrelevant, whatever, don't bother
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Note for @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , this isn't to denigrate Purdue it is just looking at the reality that schedules in the mega-conference era can vary a LOT.
No personal offense taken. I hadn't realized this either, but I'm pretty stoked about it. Nice to get some good luck on the scheduling front.
That said, while I'm happy about the fact that it might benefit Purdue when it comes to NCAA seeding and potentially where the team is geographically placed in the bracket, I think these uneven conference schedules affect the bubble teams like OSU much more significantly, as you've pointed out.
I.e. despite their current rankings with UM ahead of PU, Purdue with a favorable home/road split would have a solid chance of moving up to a 1 seed, while Michigan with an unfavorable home/road split has might end up dropping to a 2 seed. But overall both teams are going to be solidly in the field and with a pretty good draw.
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I’m realizing that bad Wisconsin means a better chance that I could actually see them in person in the tournament. That’s interesting.
Whereas, if they are good, they either get a spot in the Midwest or get banished to be one of the not quite top seeds in a western locale because of the unbalanced sites.
This has happened far too often for my liking.
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This has happened far too often for my liking.
I've been tracking it for YEARS and I'll share it again when we get closer to tournament time but the NCAA insists on having two or three of their opening round sites in the Mountain and Pacific Timezones every year despite that fact that those timezones almost never actually produce anywhere near enough #1-4 seeds to fill them. Consequently a LOT of 4-5 seeds from the east end up out west.
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so, would it be better to be a 4-5 seed out west or a 6-7 seed back closer to home?
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This has happened far too often for my liking.
I don’t totally see any way around it.
if they are good enough to get seeding preference, they stay home. If they aren’t, someone with seating preference is closer to all the other places.
They do need to cut down to at most one western site in the first round, but for now, it is what it is.
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I don’t totally see any way around it.
Ah, yes you do:
They do need to cut down to at most one western site in the first round, but for now, it is what it is.
This is the way around it.
They obviously have the data that I have.
To clarify, I would have no objection at all if the Mountain and Pacific timezones produced an average of 10 top-4 seeds but once in a while they only produced 2 so in those outlier years a bunch of Eastern #3 and #4 seeds got shipped out West. That would just be a bad luck situation. That is NOT what is happening. What IS happening is that history shows that the Mountain and Pacific timezones on average produce only enough top-4 seeds to justify having barely over one first round site and yet year after year the NCAA insists on having too many Western sites for the available Western top-4 seeds. Ie, they either know better or they should know better and they continue on anyway.
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They like the Doors.
(https://ramsondemand.com/attachments/the-west-is-the-best-jpg.22444/)
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I always thought moving around was more for the fans everywhere to have the opportunity to attend when its close. If they wanted to just give the better seeds an advantage theyd just do it on home courts
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I think they should an opening weekend in Honolulu. Or maybe try to drum up some American territories support and do it in Guam or American Samoa.
(Secretly I just want to watch Badge's head explode when Wisconsin is shipped even further west...)
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First ever Greenland regional
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Never thought I'd see Wisconsin win 2 games in a week, where they gave up 88 and 87 points.
It's certainly a new era in Madison
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Never thought I'd see Wisconsin win 2 games in a week, where they gave up 88 and 87 points.
It's certainly a new era in Madison
That game was profoundly irritating. Like, not much reason to not play crisp and man they didn't.
I just want to make the dance. Anything else is gravy.
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a 6-7 seed back closer to home?
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Florida and IU have traded being football/basketball schools. Gators winning games on the road vs ranked opp. We're a top 8 team that just happened to have a few 1-3 point losses vs other top 8 teams.
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IU is a basketball school like Nebraska is a football school.
They like it a lot, but they haven't been any good in a long time.
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I couldn't see it because it was on Peacock, but apparently Purdue beat USC in a rock fight yesterday afternoon in LA. Long stretches of poor shooting, disjointed team play, just not locked in. Tied at 60-60 with 2 minutes to play before the Boilers pulled away to win 69-64.
My question for the followers of CBB...
This was Purdue's first game of their West Coast swing. They had Iowa in West Lafayette on Wednesday and had to play in LA on Saturday.
How much do you think this is the sort of normal down/sloppy game that every team has once in a while, and how much is the 3-time-zone travel adjustment?
Purdue stays out here to face UCLA on Tuesday, who played in State College last Wednesday and Columbus yesterday, so the script might flip, as they say here in Tinseltown.
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I couldn't see it because it was on Peacock, but apparently Purdue beat USC in a rock fight yesterday afternoon in LA.
Peacock schmeacock, you could have gone to the game.
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Yeah, in retrospect I'm kicking myself for not buying a ticket.
But MAN do I hate driving to effing LA. Even on a Saturday.
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Peacock is $5/Month...
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You could always engineer yourself a secret tunnel.
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Purdue stays out here to face UCLA on Tuesday, who played in State College last Wednesday and Columbus yesterday, so the script might flip, as they say here in Tinseltown.
This comes up a lot where the Eastern team on the second half of their West Coast swing has less travel to get to the game than the home team. Still, there is something to be said for being at home rather than living out of a suitcase.
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I couldn't see it because it was on Peacock, but apparently Purdue beat USC in a rock fight yesterday afternoon in LA. Long stretches of poor shooting, disjointed team play, just not locked in. Tied at 60-60 with 2 minutes to play before the Boilers pulled away to win 69-64.
My question for the followers of CBB...
This was Purdue's first game of their West Coast swing. They had Iowa in West Lafayette on Wednesday and had to play in LA on Saturday.
How much do you think this is the sort of normal down/sloppy game that every team has once in a while, and how much is the 3-time-zone travel adjustment?
Purdue stays out here to face UCLA on Tuesday, who played in State College last Wednesday and Columbus yesterday, so the script might flip, as they say here in Tinseltown.
I think it was on regular TV too? It was definitely showing up on my YouTube TV, which I don’t think is linked to a peacock account.
Probably just a sloppy game, or an up game for USC at home. I would guess there is a slight challenge with that trip, but probably not one that is super trackable.
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(https://i.imgur.com/RHnxjwI.jpeg)
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Peacock is $5/Month...
Which you know I can easily afford.
It's the principle of the thing.
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yup, Youtube TV is only $82.99/month
I'm not payin
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[img width=273.619 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/RHnxjwI.jpeg[/img]
I miss those days (2010-11) in case that wasn't clear.
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Maryland is annihilating Penn State which will be the first league win of the season for the Terps leaving only PSU and NU winless.
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Maryland is annihilating Penn State which will be the first league win of the season for the Terps leaving only PSU and NU winless.
I thought PSU might have a little more gumption. Badgers head there on Thursday, which bears a little watching.
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I thought PSU might have a little more gumption. Badgers head there on Thursday, which bears a little watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvlalDNxccw
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Maryland is annihilating Penn State which will be the first league win of the season for the Terps leaving only PSU and NU winless.
Penn State has never had fans. Maryland having no fans should be concerning to administration
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(https://i.imgur.com/cbzC2Bm.jpeg)
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Will be at tonight's Purdue @ UCLA game.
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Will be at tonight's Purdue @ UCLA game.
I'll wave as you drive by on the 5...
Incidentally, I'll be down in San Diego visiting customers tomorrow...
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Florida and IU have traded being football/basketball schools. Gators winning games on the road vs ranked opp. We're a top 8 team that just happened to have a few 1-3 point losses vs other top 8 teams.
Just out of curiosity, because Torvik allows you to sort by date. I sorted based on when Big Ten play started in earnest, after NYD. Nebraska is the best team in the conference. Florida is #2 nationally, and EASILY the best the in the SEC. Texas is #2 at #24.
But behind Nebraska, Illinois is #6, MSU is #9, Wisconsin #18, Ohio State #21, Iowa #23 (while going 1-3), Purdue #28 and Michigan #30.
So I think the race is still open. Purdue and Michigan I think are still the two best teams, but they've sort of been sleep walking for 3 weeks now, even while going a combined 7-1
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Ohio State is now 12-5/4-3. My view of the bubble:
- 20-11 or better is almost certainly in even with a bad 1st game BTT loss.
- 19-12 is probably in but might need to at least avoid a bad BTT loss.
- 18-13 is on the bubble, would need to win a few games in the BTT.
- 17-14 is almost certainly out but might sneak in with a run to the B1GCG.
- 16-15 or worse is out without winning the BTT.
So 'the bubble' is basically 17-19 wins meaning 5-7 more in the 14 remaining.
Here are Ohio State's remaining games sorted by Torvik's likelihood of winning:
- 88% vs PSU 1/26
- 75% vs MN tonight.
- 71% vs USC 2/11
- 69% vs at PSU 3/4
- 65% at Maryland 2/5
- 64% vs Wisconsin 2/17
- 52% vs Indiana 3/7
- 34% at Wisconsin 1/31
- 31% vs Purdue 3/1
- 22% vs UVA in Nashville 2/14
- 17% vs Michigan 2/8
- 17% at Iowa 2/25
- 15% at Michigan State 2/22
- 6% at Michigan on Friday.
There is definitely a path but I think it is narrower than it appears. If they just win the 50%+ games, that gets them to 19-12 and probably in. The problem is that they have more close "should wins" than close "should lose". The seven games that they "should lose" would take a pretty big upset to win any of those so they really can't afford to lose any of the 'should win' games.
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Massey composite rankings...47 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- Arizona (1)
- MICHIGAN (2)
- Duke (5)
- PURDUE (4)
- Gonzaga (8)
- Connecticut (7)
- Houston (10)
- NEBRASKA (11)
- MICHIGAN STATE (13)
- ILLINOIS (12)
- Iowa State (3)
- BYU (9)
- Vanderbilt (6)
- Virginia (16)
- Florida (17)
- Texas Tech (15)
- Alabama (14)
- Kansas (21)
- Louisville (20)
- Clemson (25)
- St. John's (24)
- Arkansas (23)
- Georgia (22)
- Saint Louis (-)
- IOWA (-)
35. Wisconsin (38)
39. Ohio State (44)
40. USC (41)
44. Indiana (37)
47. UCLA (45)
60. Washington (54)
89. Minnesota (83)
91. Oregon (92)
92. Northwestern (91)
118. Penn State (104)
121. Maryland (129)
132. Rutgers (133)
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that's wack!
I can see some pollsters voting UNL up there because of number of losses - not massey
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that's wack!
I can see some pollsters voting UNL up there because of number of losses - not massey
It's not Massey's own rankings. It's a composite of a bunch of other ranking systems.
If you look at the site, it'll show you exactly where Nebraska is ranked in each: https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cb
Nebraska ranges from as high as 2 to as low as 19.
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2nd!!! In basketball! Yeah right, and Indiana is #1 in football.
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MSU defense remains on pace to be the best in like 20 years, while their offense continues to make Kelvin Sampson wonder what the hell they are running
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2nd!!! In basketball! Yeah right, and Indiana is #1 in football.
if the Hoosiers can win the football title, the Huskers can make the final 4
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Will be at tonight's Purdue @ UCLA game.
Quite a memorable game to go to last night. #4 Purdue upset by UCLA 69-67.
Last night was also John Wooden legacy night, which made sense to hold while hosting Purdue because Wooden, a native of Indiana, played his college ball at Purdue from 1929-1932. To commemorate, a bobble head was issued to the first 7000 fans:
(https://i.imgur.com/2KOYY52.png)
As for the game itself, it started as expected, with Purdue taking a double digit lead early. And most of us thought it would only get worse for UCLA from there. Purdue is too disciplined, too strong on defense, and too strong on the inside to let an over-matched UCLA team back in.
But UCLA fought back for a 32-32 tie at the half after adjusting to Purdue's inside attack. The Bruins also got a career day from transfer guard Donovan Dent setting the tempo for most of the second half. Purdue took a 67-61 with just over a minute left before UCLA went on an 8-0 run that included two threes.
(https://i.imgur.com/hX7bLlv.jpeg)
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I'm glad it was sequestered on Peacock so I didn't have to watch that.
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looks like more than 7,000 showed up
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Quite a memorable game to go to last night. #4 Purdue upset by UCLA 69-67.
Last night was also John Wooden legacy night, which made sense to hold while hosting Purdue because Wooden, a native of Indiana, played his college ball at Purdue from 1929-1932. To commemorate, a bobble head was issued to the first 7000 fans:
(https://i.imgur.com/2KOYY52.png)
As for the game itself, it started as expected, with Purdue taking a double digit lead early. And most of us thought it would only get worse for UCLA from there. Purdue is too disciplined, too strong on defense, and too strong on the inside to let an over-matched UCLA team back in.
But UCLA fought back for a 32-32 tie at the half after adjusting to Purdue's inside attack. The Bruins also got a career day from transfer guard Donovan Dent setting the tempo for most of the second half. Purdue took a 67-61 with just over a minute left before UCLA went on an 8-0 run that included two threes.
(https://i.imgur.com/hX7bLlv.jpeg)
UCLA had some amazing shots bounce in and Loyer was hot garbage last night. In the end, that was the biggest reason they lost. However...
I'm usually not a huge "blame the refs" guy, but Holy Hell those were some "let 'em play" refs last night.
Purdue didn't get a free throw attempt until 5 minutes into the second half (and UCLA only had one before). There were only 10 total attempts combined for the entire game.
There were a couple of "blocks" by UCLA where the announcers were gushing over the athletic player who just blocked Smith's lay-up....with the replay clearly showing that he slapped his wrist and wasn't even close to hitting the ball. Two questionable goal-tending calls. etc. There were a couple of missed calls on the UCLA side that benefitted Purdue (couple of missed double dribbles), but overall, the mug-em style does not favor Purdue / Smith who tends to draw fouls by shot-faking and then shooting (You can't draw fouls if the refs don't actually call them and if you are "depending" on the foul being called and don't make the basket, you end up getting beat down the floor when you try to plea your case to the blind-ass ref).
Oh well. Move on. Bigger games coming down the pipeline that we need to be ready for.
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Wisconsin actually put an opponent away and kept the pressure on until the end in their win at Penn State yesterday. Yay!
And Northwestern with a pretty big win on the road at USC for their first Big Ten win.
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I'm glad it was sequestered on Peacock so I didn't have to watch that.
In a couple hours I'm probably going to wish Ohio State's game was on Peacock 🦚 tonight.
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In a couple hours I'm probably going to wish Ohio State's game was on Peacock 🦚 tonight.
Sure, OSU/UM is on Fox but Purdue/IU next week is on Peacock.
fPeacock
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Watching this Ohio State is in it being only down two and just lost the lead but . . .
It feels like the Buckeyes have played almost as well as they possibly could to get here and it is only a matter of time until the dirtbags go on a run and put it out of reach.
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I'm thrilled with the opening of the second half, I pretty much expected the Wolverines to come out on fire and pull away and instead the Buckeyes have pulled ahead.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWJDMsYua8w
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Wisconsin actually put an opponent away and kept the pressure on until the end in their win at Penn State yesterday. Yay!
And Northwestern with a pretty big win on the road at USC for their first Big Ten win.
That was good work!
The next three remain key. They should be somewhat heavy favorites for the next two and a modest favorite the game after. schedule gets harder after that and cashing these in now would open up the board in a big way.
Also, Penn State seems quite poor this year.
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Nebraska on a 39-15 run to turn an 8 point deficit into a 16 point lead
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2nd half team - Sandfort got going in the 2nd
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How did Maryland get THIS bad?
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I'll be in the Haymarket in Lincoln Tuesday night watching the 20-0 Huskers play Michigan - which is nice, since I don't have PeeCock at home.
hopin for a top 5 matchup
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How did Maryland get THIS bad?
They left the ACC.
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Braden Smith just went down clutching his ankle.
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Ok, back on the court. And dishes an assist. Phew!
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Well, crap.
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How did Maryland get THIS bad?
Buzz always starts from the bottom.
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MSU up to #4 in KenPom.
They have the #1 defense and #50 offense. To find a worse offense, you go all the way down to #30 Clemson.
It is interesting how much more efficient offenses are now. The exact same ratings that currently gove them the #50 offense and #1 defense, would be the #3 offense and #7 defense in 2009
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People irrationally hated Alabama football for doing nothing wrong, except winning a lot, and dont hate Alabama basketball nearly enough. Just playing accessories to murder, and getting donor judges to let them play former pros
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Alabama needs to add more pros
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watching big ten hockey
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(https://i.imgur.com/Kxh6Pmr.jpeg)
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MSU up to #4 in KenPom.
They have the #1 defense and #50 offense. To find a worse offense, you go all the way down to #30 Clemson.
It is interesting how much more efficient offenses are now. The exact same ratings that currently gove them the #50 offense and #1 defense, would be the #3 offense and #7 defense in 2009
Folks learned 3s are good, turnovers are real bad and mid-rangers aren’t great.
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(https://i.imgur.com/W3O0bYD.png)
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(https://i.imgur.com/6XVIwUz.jpeg)
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Wisconsin really f'd up yesterday.
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Wisconsin really f'd up yesterday.
:96:
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Wisconsin really f'd up yesterday.
Just some bad work. It was strange because there were a bunch of small things they probably could’ve cleaned up, But the biggest failure was missing open shots/missing the shots we hope you’d be able to make near the rim at that size.
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Blackwell was terrible. There's your ballgame.
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(https://i.imgur.com/JSvwiC3.jpeg)
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I have no idea what to think about Wisconsin at this point. Thought they had figured some things out, and then maybe take the worst conference loss anyone has yet
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(https://i.imgur.com/hTzx2pc.jpeg)
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I have no idea what to think about Wisconsin at this point. Thought they had figured some things out, and then maybe take the worst conference loss anyone has yet
If that's the worst loss, it's a pretty good first loss. I mean, I don't think USC is great, but they got some pieces.
It seems like this is a somewhat inconsistent Badgers team. They'd kind of positioned themselves to stay a bit ahead of that, assuming they took care of business, but that's not what inconsistent teams do. I think they'll grind to a lower seed, which seems about right.
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I have no idea what to think about Wisconsin at this point. Thought they had figured some things out, and then maybe take the worst conference loss anyone has yet
If that's the worst loss, it's a pretty good first loss. I mean, I don't think USC is great, but they got some pieces.
It seems like this is a somewhat inconsistent Badgers team. They'd kind of positioned themselves to stay a bit ahead of that, assuming they took care of business, but that's not what inconsistent teams do. I think they'll grind to a lower seed, which seems about right.
I think that @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) was exaggerating a bit in calling a loss to the now 4-5 Trojans the worst loss anyone has but it was pretty bad. It was a home loss to a sub .500 team that had to travel across the country to play the game.
It makes it hard to project the Badgers. Two weeks ago they walked into Crisler and knocked off the #2 ranked Wolverines which definitely IS the best conference win anyone has yet so it is hard to square the circle of "good enough to win at #2, bad enough to lose at home to a sub .500 also-ran."
FWIW, I do NOT think this is specific to Wisconsin. I'm having the same problem with my own team. When they are good, they look really good. They gave Michigan all they could handle at least until the U8 and did it on the road. They only lost to (now) #5 Nebraska by a bucket. They only lost to UNC by a single point in a 'neutral' game in Atlanta. Then there are the bad days . . . They lost to a bad UDub, lost to a bad Pitt, needed OT to beat Minnesota at home, etc.
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fPeacock
Was looking forward to #3 Michigan Vs #5 Nebraska tonight, expecting a Fox or FS1 broadcast, but nope. It's quarantined to Peacock.
Guess it's either Arkansas Vs Oklahoma or another Shark Tank rerun.
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I think that @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) was exaggerating a bit in calling a loss to the now 4-5 Trojans the worst loss anyone has but it was pretty bad. It was a home loss to a sub .500 team that had to travel across the country to play the game.
It makes it hard to project the Badgers. Two weeks ago they walked into Crisler and knocked off the #2 ranked Wolverines which definitely IS the best conference win anyone has yet so it is hard to square the circle of "good enough to win at #2, bad enough to lose at home to a sub .500 also-ran."
FWIW, I do NOT think this is specific to Wisconsin. I'm having the same problem with my own team. When they are good, they look really good. They gave Michigan all they could handle at least until the U8 and did it on the road. They only lost to (now) #5 Nebraska by a bucket. They only lost to UNC by a single point in a 'neutral' game in Atlanta. Then there are the bad days . . . They lost to a bad UDub, lost to a bad Pitt, needed OT to beat Minnesota at home, etc.
I guess I meant among contenders. But even aside from that, USC is #12 among Big Ten teams, and as you said, was travelling cross country. When they went to Michigan and Michigan State, they lost both games by 30.
The 6 teams behind them are a combined 3-24 on the road in conference, with the wins being Minnesota at Northwestern; Oregon at Maryland; and USC at Northwestern.
So as of now, I actually do think that is the worst loss anyone has had in conference.
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Massey composite rankings...49 computers (last week in parenthesis)
- Arizona (1)
- MICHIGAN (2)
- Duke (3)
- Connecticut (6)
- MICHIGAN STATE (9)
- NEBRASKA (8)
- Gonzaga (5)
- ILLINOIS (10)
- Iowa State (11)
- Houston (7)
- PURDUE (4)
- BYU (12)
- Texas Tech (16)
- Vanderbilt (13)
- Kansas (18)
- Florida (15)
- Virginia (14)
- Arkansas (22)
- Alabama (17)
- Louisville (19)
- Saint Louis (24)
- St. John's (20)
- North Carolina (-)
- Tennessee (-)
- Clemson (21)
27. Iowa (25)
37. Wisconsin (35)
38. Ohio State (39)
41. UCLA (47)
42. Indiana (44)
44. USC (40)
57. Washington (60)
79. Northwestern (92)
89. Minnesota (89)
98. Oregon (91)
129. Maryland (122)
133. Penn State (117)
137. Rutgers (131)
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According to Lunardi our league is quite bubblicious at the moment with with five of the teams somewhere on the bubble. Specifically:
- Wisconsin 10, Ohio State 10, and UCLA 10 are among the "last four byes".
- USC (play in vs TX for #11) is one of the "last four in"
- Indiana is one of the "first four out"
Wisconsin is in the midst of playing most of the rest of the bubble teams. They lost at home to USC on Sunday and after hosting Minnesota tomorrow night they host the Buckeyes then visit the Hoosiers.
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I guess I meant among contenders. But even aside from that, USC is #12 among Big Ten teams, and as you said, was travelling cross country. When they went to Michigan and Michigan State, they lost both games by 30.
The 6 teams behind them are a combined 3-24 on the road in conference, with the wins being Minnesota at Northwestern; Oregon at Maryland; and USC at Northwestern.
So as of now, I actually do think that is the worst loss anyone has had in conference.
As I said, if that’s the worst loss, it’s a pretty good worst loss, on balance.
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Was looking forward to #3 Michigan Vs #5 Nebraska tonight, expecting a Fox or FS1 broadcast, but nope. It's quarantined to Peacock.
Guess it's either Arkansas Vs Oklahoma or another Shark Tank rerun.
Purdue is in desperate need of a "get right" game as they head down to Assembly Hall in Bloomington to take on the Hoosiers tonight.
You'd think the biggest basketball rivalry in the Big Ten would be worth putting on a network, or ESPN, right?
Nope. Peacock.
Grrrr :96:
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I guess I meant among contenders. But even aside from that, USC is #12 among Big Ten teams, and as you said, was travelling cross country. When they went to Michigan and Michigan State, they lost both games by 30.
The 6 teams behind them are a combined 3-24 on the road in conference, with the wins being Minnesota at Northwestern; Oregon at Maryland; and USC at Northwestern.
So as of now, I actually do think that is the worst loss anyone has had in conference.
Tempting the basketball gods
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Purdue is in desperate need of a "get right" game as they head down to Assembly Hall in Bloomington to take on the Hoosiers tonight.
You'd think the biggest basketball rivalry in the Big Ten would be worth putting on a network, or ESPN, right?
Nope. Peacock.
Grrrr :96:
Nebraska-Michigan is on Peecock too.
If it's OSU, I'll just mozie on over to the casino and watch it. But I'm not doing that for rando big ten games.
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Rutgers beefed it
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Nebraska beefed it
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the refs beefed Nebraska, but I expected it
Huskers were the better team for the vast majority of the game. W/O their Big Guy and their 6th man
tough to win on the road
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Nebraska beefed it
On the road, with a 23-4 FT discrepancy, missing their best player. Not sure thats beefing it.
Now Purdue...
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On the road, with a 23-4 FT discrepancy, missing their best player. Not sure thats beefing it.
Now Purdue...
Actually, I thought it was in WL. Any road game is tough
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Now Purdue...
Tailspin.