CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on January 23, 2025, 10:41:42 PM
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Teams with 2nd Loss Week 16:
Army
Teams with 1st Loss Week in Bowl Game:
Oregon
Teams with 2nd Loss in Bowl Games:
Indiana
Boise State
Teams with 3rd in Bowl Games:
Southern Methodist
Tennessee
Miami (FL)
Arizona State
Georgia
Texas
Penn State
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 0/1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Week 7: 8.3% (1 of 12)
Week 8: 9.1% (1 of 11)
Week 9: 20% (2 of 10)
Week 10: 37.5% (3 of 8)
Week 11: 20% (1 of 5)
Week 12: 25% (1 of 4)
Week 13: 66.7% (2 of 3)
Week 14: 0% (0 of 1)
Week 15/16: 0% (0 of 1)
Bowls: 100% (1 of 1)
Week 16 and Bowl Thoughts:
-In week 16, we saw 1-loss Army lose to Navy. This might not be a huge deal this year, but with a weaker Mountain West champ, it would have been. This has to be at least in the back of the head for the committee going forward.
-The ACC definitely has to be most unhappy with the post season. Getting two in the playoff still can't be overlooked (this was a huge goal from the start of the year) and Clemson looked respectable vs. Texas, but the overall bowl record doesn't leave the conference getting a lot of benefit of the doubt heading into next year. That said, most of that will be forgotten quickly as things start fresh and it is good to see SMU moving up quick in the new era. Miami seems to be on the uptrend and if Florida State can rebound too, the conference will be more than fine for now. The conference's two bowl wins came with a ranked Syracuse beating Washington State in the Holiday Bowl and Louisville beating Washington in the Sun Bowl. Both teams I would think would stand a chance of starting the year ranked depending on departures.
-Looking at the Big 12 bowls, Arizona State took Texas to the wire. That was the Big 12's only game in the playoff, but it left a good impression. Again, Arizona State was predicted to finish last in the Big 12 preseason so amazing first year in the Big 12 for them. Looking at the rest of the conference, we had the two teams tied for first place who didn't go to the Big 12 Championship play in the Alamo Bowl. BYU easily beat Colorado to top off a great season for them. Iowa beat Miami in what is now the Pop Tarts Bowl in the Citrus Bowl for an overall decent finish for the top of the conference. The bowl season wasn't perfect, but overall the conference can hang its head pretty high on it.
-The bowl season was definitely disappointing for the SEC, but wasn't catastrophic. Between bowls and the CFP games, the SEC went 8-7. The top has definitely taken a step back though. Only Texas entered the semi-finals and for the 2nd year in a row, the national title was played without an SEC team. In non-playoff bowls, the SEC was 1-3 vs. the Big Ten including losses in the Citrus and Outback bowls. More on what this below, but it might signal some changes in the power structure thanks to all the changes in the sport. Even with all of that, the conference had a winning postseason record, was very close to getting Texas in the national championship, and remains a force top to bottom. Missouri and Florida weren't really factors for the SEC Championship this year, but between ending season and/or bowl games, I could see both of them moving up next year.
-The Big Ten has to be the happiest of the major conferences with their bowl wins. They had a national title winner, 4 teams in the playoff and a pretty strong record beyond that. Michigan will likely enter next year ranked after winning the Outback Bowl (as I continue to think of that bowl). Illinois capped off a great season with a Citrus Bowl win.
-Among the Group of 5 conferences, the American has to be the happiest with their bowl record. They finished 6-2 with wins over 3 teams from power 5 conferences. The Mountain West didn't do as well, but at the top they did have Boise State playing in the playoff and the #2 UNLV beat Cal. The MAC's pretty good bowl record saw its champ beat the Conference USA champ and saw a win over Pitt. Conference USA struggled, but did see newcomer to bowls Sam Houston beat Georgia Southern. The Sun Belt was hurt by not having its champ in a bowl (too many transfers for Marshall), but still ended up 4-3.
-For independents and the PAC-12 (effectively independents), we saw Washington State struggle against Syracuse, but saw Notre Dame win 3 games to get to the national title game. That increases confidence that the Fighting Irish can succeed in the new look college football.
-Looking around the sport, in the past couple of years, we have added NIL, a 12 team playoff, and put most the traditional powers in 2 huge conferences and most the rest of the middle tier powers in the other two. The effect any one of these changes would have on the sport over the next two decades would be huge and we did them all in short order. I think we are starting to see some short term effects. Talent has dispersed more, which hurts the SEC a little, especially relative to the Big Ten. I don't want to overstate that as there is a ton of talent and money in the SEC and will continue to be so. That said, there is a lot of money in the Big Ten and other schools too. Before that, the SEC had a big advantage in being closer to a lot of high school talent. That matters less now as NIL money can attract kids away from places that have a geographic advantage. I think this has relatively helped more northern teams with money vs. southern teams sometimes with less money but better local advantages that are no longer quite as important. The SEC's power isn't going away, but it's looking more like the system might disperse the power a bit differently than it did the last two decades. Someone like Oregon who has had money, but been a far geographic outlier probably stand to benefit the absolute most, but there will be winners and loser all around.
-I think it's also worth mentioning that with so many traditionally powerful teams in two conferences, even with more playoff spots, they can't all succeed. At the same time, there is more air for what were middle tier programs to rise in the Big 12 and to a lesser degree the ACC. At the end of the day, the Big Ten and SEC may have had 7 of 12 playoff spots, but I'd have rather been a fan of SMU or Arizona State this year (or even Colorado, BYU, Miami) than of Washington, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, etc. We are early in this line-up, but the teams regularly atop the Big 12 especially are going to start to become more recognizable nationally, while some older powers or middle tier teams in the Big Ten and SEC are going to fall behind even if they have more money given they have peers who will outperform them too regularly. I'm not saying a school shouldn't jump to go to the Big Ten or SEC, but I would bet it will be easier to make the next big brand in the ACC or Big 12 than in one of those two.
Thanks for a great season everyone. Not sure will be going quite as much depth next season, but it has been a lot of fun.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big Ten: 0, total: 0
none
1-Loss Teams: American: 0, Big Ten: 1, Mountain West: 0, independents: 0, total 1
Oregon
2-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 0, independents: 1, total: 7
Memphis
Brigham Young
Ohio State
Army
Indiana
Boise State
Notre Dame
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC: 1, total: 1
Kent State