CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on January 02, 2025, 03:17:39 PM
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Pretty impressive:
- Indiana was a 14.5 point dog, lost by 10: 0-1 straight up, 1-0 ATS
- PSU was a 21.5 point favorite, won by 28: 1-1/2-0
- Ohio State was favored by 7, won by 25: 2-1/3-0
- Rutgers was a 7 point dog, lost by a FG: 2-2/4-0
- USC was a 3.5 point dog, won by 4: 3-2/5-0
- Nebraska was a 3.5 point favorite, won by 5: 4-2/6-0
- Iowa was a 2.5 point dog, lost by a FG: 4-3/6-1
- Michigan was a 13.5 point dog, won by 6: 5-3/7-1
- Washington was a 2.5 point dog, lost by1: 5-4/8-1
- Illinois was a 10 point dog, won by 4: 6-4/9-1
- Penn State was an 11 point favorite, won by 17: 7-4/10-1
- Ohio State was a 2.5 point favorite, won by 20: 8-4/11-1
- Oregon was a 2.5 point dog, lost by 20: 8-5/11-2
Only two B1G teams failed to beat the spread. One was Iowa who only missed by half a point and the other was Oregon who lost to a fellow B1G team.
Upcoming:
- Minnesota -9 vs VaTech
- Ohio State -6 vs Texas
- PSU (spread TBD) vs UGA/ND
- Ohio State (assuming they beat Texas) vs PSU/UGA/ND
- PSU (assuming they beat UGA/ND) vs tOSU/TX
Even if we lose and fail to cover in all of our remaining games we'll still finish 8-8 straight up and 11-5 ATS.
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B1G! B1G! B1G! B1G!
is that how that works, SEC friends?
Feels dirty.
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Even if we lose and fail to cover in all of our remaining games we'll still finish 8-8 straight up and 11-5 ATS.
Above is worst-case-scenario.
Best-case-scenario:
- Minnesota wins and covers: 9-5, 12-2
- Ohio State wins and covers vs TX: 10-5, 13-2
- PSU wins and covers vs UGA/ND: 11-5, 14-2
- NCG is all-B1G: 12-6, 15-3
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Above is worst-case-scenario.
Best-case-scenario:
- Minnesota wins and covers: 9-5, 12-2
- Ohio State wins and covers vs TX: 10-5, 13-2
- PSU wins and covers vs UGA/ND: 11-5, 14-2
- NCG is all-B1G: 12-6, 15-3
Minnesota did win and covers so we are 9-5/12-2 with 2-4 games left.
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Instead of betting underdogs, you should have simply bet on B1G ATS and won....
This is a bit aligned with my notion that "popular perception" in such things is often wrong, e.g., many folks believe the SEC is superior, so perhaps the betting lines shifted in that direction slightly when in fact the B1G teams are better then perceived.
One might have thought having four CFP teams instead of three would hurt B1G bowl performance, but ....