CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 27, 2024, 11:14:09 AM
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Teams are listed by CFP Ranking with each teams' remaining schedule:
- 11-0 Oregon, vs UWash, B1GCG: The Ducks are in. Even in a worst-case-scenario they'd finish 11-2 and be in.
- 10-1 Ohio State, vs M, B1GCG (if they beat M): The Bucks are in. Worst case is 10-2 and that is enough.
- 10-1 Texas, at #20 aTm, SECCG (if they beat aTm): The Horns are in.
- 10-1 Penn State, vs UMD: The Lions are obviously in if they beat Maryland. A loss to the Terps would make their situation precarious but they would likely still sneak in.
- 10-1 Notre Dame, at USC: IMHO the Irish are in if they win and out if they lose. 10-2 is good enough for most teams but a 10-2 Notre Dame would have two bad losses and their only good win was way back in August. The one thing that would likely get a 10-2 Notre Dame into the CFP would be for aTm to win the SEC because that would REALLY improve ND's quality win.
- 10-1 Miami, at Syracuse, ACCCG (if they beat Cuse): IMHO, a loss to Cuse drops the Canes out. They'd be borderline at 11-2 with a win over Cuse and a loss to SMU in the ACCCG. They'd be an auto-bid and get a bye with two wins.
- 9-2 Georgia, vs GaTech, SECCG: I believe that UGA needs one more win to get in. I think that they would be out at 9-4 so they can't lose to Tech AND lose the SECCG but I believe that 10-3 with a win over Tech and a loss to Tx/aTm gets them in and they'd obviously get an auto-bid with a win in the SECCG.
- 9-2 Tennessee, at Vandy: Tennessee is in with a win and out with a loss.
- 10-1 SMU, vs Cal, ACCCG: SMU obviously gets an auto-bid with an ACCCG win and I think they are pretty obviously out if they lose out so the only question is what if they beat Cal and lose the ACCCG. That would put them in a precarious spot and, I think, probably out.
- 10-1 Indiana, vs Purdue: The Hoosiers are in if they win and out if they lose.
- 10-1 Boise, vs OrSU, MWCCG: Boise is in if they win out and likely out if they lose either of their last two games.
- 9-2 Clemson, vs #15 USCe, ACCCG (if Miami loses to Cuse): Clemson is the first team out right now but a win over USCe would help and there will probably be an upset somewhere. If nothing else, either Miami or SMU must necessarily lose. IMHO, there is a very good chance that they are in with a win over USCe but with a loss they can't make it unless Cuse beats Miami and the Tigers take down the Mustangs.
- 8-3 Bama, vs Auburn: I'm hearing a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth over Miami being so close despite three losses but I think it is overblown for two reasons: First, who would you put ahead of them and second, I don't think they have a very likely path anyway.
- 8-3 Ole Miss, vsMissSt: They are more hopeless than Bama.
- 8-3 USCe, at #12 Clemson: In theory a win at Clemson would jump USCe up to "next team in" ahead of OleMiss, Bama, and Clemson.
- 9-2 ASU, at Zona, B12CG (possibly)*: If they win the B12CG they are in, otherwise no.
- 9-2 Tulane, vs Memphis, AACCG: They need to win out and hope for chaos in either the MWC or the B12.
- 9-2 Iowa State, vs #24 KSU, B12CG (possibly)*: If they win the B12CG they are in, otherwise no.
- 9-2 BYU, vs Houston, B12CG (possibly)*: If they win the B12CG they are in, otherwise no.
- 8-3 aTm, vs #3 Texas, SECCG (if they beat Tx): They are in if they win out and out if they don't.
- 8-3 Mizzou, no path.
- 9-2 UNLV, vs Nevada, MWCCG (probably if they win): Winning out including a win over #11 Boise probably jumps them over Tulane and into the CFP.
- 8-3 Illinois, no path.
- 8-3 Kansas State, at #18 ISU, B12CG (possibly*, maybe): If they win out and get into and win the B12CG then maybe but that still might not do it because they might be the 6th best league champ.
- 8-3 Colorado, vs OkSU, B12CG (possibly)*: Even winning out might not do it, see KSU.
The mess in the B12 is really complicating things. There are four teams with two league losses (ASU, BYU, ISU, Colorado) plus another five with three league losses. In theory ASU (at 2-6 Zona), BYU (vs 3-5 Houston), ISU (vs 5-3 KSU), and Colorado (vs 0-8 OkSU) could all lose but that is exceedingly unlikely.
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the Big 12 sucks
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the Big 12 sucks
I don't think they suck, they just don't have a top-end. IMHO, none of the B12 teams would be competitive with Oregon and tOSU but they have almost a dozen teams that would probably be top-5 in the B1G.
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I don't think they suck, they just don't have a top-end. IMHO, none of the B12 teams would be competitive with Oregon and tOSU but they have almost a dozen teams that would probably be top-5 in the B1G.
Yup, agree. The B12 has been very entertaining to watch this season, IMO.
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I don't think they suck, they just don't have a top-end. IMHO, none of the B12 teams would be competitive with Oregon and tOSU but they have almost a dozen teams that would probably be top-5 in the B1G.
from #5 to #10, maybe
I don't think their best team wins vs the Hoosiers very often
now if you want to lean on the Cyclone upset of the hawks early on, go ahead
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Seems things are working themselves out.
I couldn't find much of a quibble with this weeks rankings/seedings.
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I guess we need to think about this more like CBB so:
Who are the potential "bid thieves"?
I think that aTm is an obvious possibility. If they manage to beat Texas this week then Georgia next week, they'll get an auto-bid as SEC Champion at 10-3. That knocks somebody out.
The ACC looks like a possibility but I'm not sure. Based on the current rankings both #6 Miami and #9 SMU would be in while #12 Clemson would be out. However, IMHO no more than one of SMU/Miami is going to make it. If they both win this week (Houston, Syracuse) they'll play in the ACCCG and I would guess that the loser will drop out. OTOH, the committee has a long-standing policy of not punishing teams for playing in their CG so maybe not?
In theory they could get all three in or it could be as few as one.
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Who is on the bubble?
In the current rankings the last two teams in are SMU and Indiana. The first two out are Clemson and Bama.
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Arizona State ending a generational season a generational season against Ohio State. What's the worst that could happen?
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Arizona State ending a generational season a generational season against Ohio State. What's the worst that could happen?
https://youtu.be/inT3Kbmut10?si=8bXW6EGgpP4avjuC
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I suspect for ASU, making the playoffs would be a fine year for them even if they get squashed. I guess playoff teams get paid?
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Looking at how this would play out under older scenarios, assuming nothing crazy happens...
2 team championship
It would be oddly clean if Texas wins out. Texas vs. Big Ten champ. I have a hard time seeing anyone else making a claim. Now if Texas loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship it would get UGLY, particularly if OSU beat Oregon. Obviously either way the Oregon/Ohio State winner is in. But if Oregon loses, they are an 12-1 team that went 1-1 against OSU. PSU's claim is sort of weak, even as a 1 loss team, simply because it would be tough to put them over Oregon. Then you have a 2 loss SEC champs Georgia, a 1 loss Notre Dame, and a 1 loss ACC Champ Miami. I suspect they could say Notre Dame had both a weak schedule, and no conference championship game. So it would be Oregon, Georgia, Miami. 2 of them are conference champs, so I don't see them making it OSU-Oregon Round III, when Oregon won by 1 at home, and lost on a neutral. So 2 loss SEC champ Georgia or 1 loss ACC Champ Miami. Does a 1 loss ACC Champ SMU get the same love as a Miami?
4 team CFP
I think here Big Ten champ and SEC champ are in either way. Probably ACC champ too, either way, assuming they are 12-1. Really only the #4 spot is up for debate. I don't see a 2 loss non champ making it, so if OSU beats Oregon, Oregon is probably still in the conversation, with PSU, Indiana, Notre Dame and Texas (if they lose). OSU losing I think actually cleans things up. OSU only picked up that 2nd loss by qualifying for a conference championship that PSU and Indiana did not. So I think it's cleaner to assume all 3 are out, and Notre Dame is in.
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I suspect for ASU, making the playoffs would be a fine year for them even if they get squashed. I guess playoff teams get paid?
100% it would be.
MSU had a very good 10-2 year in 2021, that ended with them ranked #10 and playing in a NY6 Peach Bowl against #12 Pitt, where Kenneth Walker, Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison all sat out.
Based on the current rules, they'd have played a road game CFP game at Baylor. Even if they lost, that would have been better
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With the 11nd-ranked team getting a 4-seed and a 16th-ranked team getting into a 12-team playoff, this will simply be a 2-year black eye of foolishness on the sport.
Idiocy.
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https://youtu.be/inT3Kbmut10?si=8bXW6EGgpP4avjuC
Even when it's not our directly beating OSU, you guys hand us a NC. Thanks again! :88:
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I don't think they suck, they just don't have a top-end. IMHO, none of the B12 teams would be competitive with Oregon and tOSU but they have almost a dozen teams that would probably be top-5 in the B1G.
That's not really close to true, based on the current composite computer rankings. Really, it's that the Big Ten's top is WAY better than the Big XII's top. And that from #5 down, they are closer to evenish. Their #12 team (UCF) would actually be #14 in the Big Ten, not #5
- 1. Ohio State
- 2. Oregon
- 5. Penn State
- 7. Indiana
- 15. Iowa State
- 17. BYU
- 20. Kansas State
- 22. Arizona State
- 23. Colorado
- 26. Iowa
- 27. Illinois
- 30. USC
- 33. Michigan
- 34. Baylor
- 35. Kansas
- 39. Minnesota
- 40. TCU
- 44. Texas Tech
- 45. Washington
- 47. Nebraska
- 48. West Virginia
- 54. Wisconsin
- 55. Cincinnati
- 61. Rutgers
- 62. Central Florida
- 65. UCLA
- 70. Michigan State
- 72. Utah
- 79. Maryland
- 83. Houston
- 85. Arizona
- 89. Northwestern
- 90. Oklahoma State
- 117. Purdue
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With the 11nd-ranked team getting a 4-seed and a 16th-ranked team getting into a 12-team playoff, this will simply be a 2-year black eye of foolishness on the sport.
Idiocy.
We will see when there are eyeballs on the ACC and Big XII championships, that wouldn't have been there before
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With the 11nd-ranked team getting a 4-seed and a 16th-ranked team getting into a 12-team playoff, this will simply be a 2-year black eye of foolishness on the sport.
Idiocy.
dude, it's absolutely designed to work this way
it's not a tall about seeding the 12 most deserving teams, therefore giving the top 4 seeds an advantage
it's a farce and it's designed to be a farce
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It's not a farce, it's just designed to both make money, and increase the number of games that have meaning, which is exactly what it's doing
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We will see when there are eyeballs on the ACC and Big XII championships, that wouldn't have been there before
I don't think there's enough people in Iowa or enough actual fans in Miami for that to make a dent.
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it's designed to include a G5 team to avoid lawsuits
it's designed to include a Big 12 champ and an ACC champ, regardless of merit
it's designed to include the weak teams above to afford the top 3 or 4 teams in the SEC an easier path to the championship game
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We will see when there are eyeballs on the ACC and Big XII championships, that wouldn't have been there before
hah, the Big 12 champ game would have had more eyeballs if the Horns were in it.
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I don't think there's enough people in Iowa or enough actual fans in Miami for that to make a dent.
Exactly.
Which is why nobody watched those when a trip to an Orange Bowl, with half the roster opting out, on the line. Nobody except those few Iowa State or Miami fans cared. Now, everyone will be watching, because there are tangible implications
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it's designed to include a G5 team to avoid lawsuits
it's designed to include a Big 12 champ and an ACC champ, regardless of merit
it's designed to include the weak teams above to afford the top 3 or 4 teams in the SEC an easier path to the championship game
Yep. Which is why I'd love to see an 11-1 traditional doormat program win it all just to shove a sharp stick in the eye of the helmets. This is all about helping them. I'd love to see a complete and total non-helmet do it.
I just wish it was Vandy, or Northwestern, or literally anybody but the damn Hoosiers who have a seat at the table to try it lol...
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Exactly.
Which is why nobody watched those when a trip to an Orange Bowl, with half the roster opting out, on the line. Nobody except those few Iowa State or Miami fans cared. Now, everyone will be watching, because there are tangible implications
I'm not so sure fans of Hoosiers and Vols are going to be watching those conference champ games just to predict a likely matchup for their team
the coaching staff might care enuff
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Vols fans aren't scouting potential opponents, they're sniffing their daisy orange britches and figuring if they're clean enough to wear to the playoff game.
The #1 clicks/eyeball entity in the XII isn't who'll be their champ, it's people for and against Deion tuning in to see him win or lose.
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I'm hopin Ralphie doesn't get a sniff of the chump game
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If the Dawgs can beat Tech I'll be happy, for a few days anyway. That game worries me a lot, the nearly 20 point spread looks way too high to me.
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outta be enuff for the dawgs to hang on and win by 4 or 5
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Yeah, I'd take anything. Their running game is a concern, and their second freshman QB can throw pretty well and he's had a lot of PT now. I figure maybe the Dawgs can pull one out in the fourth. Tech's last game was a week ago so they've had a couple days to prepare and rest up.
Tech's last 4 wins were in Athens oddly enough. They have not won in ATL since 1999. Key would love to knock the Dawgs out of the playoffs.
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somewhere you had a post about upset weekend, and we really hadn't had one yet.
hold on to your hat/helmet
I'm hoping for an upset in Iowa City tomorrow night
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somewhere you had a post about upset weekend, and we really hadn't had one yet.
I posted in the SEC site before last week about several upset potential games, I got one right, Auburn over A&M. I didn't even mention Bama-OU.
It was a concentrated upset Saturday in the SEC.
Possible Upsets this weekend that would shake the tree (https://www.cfb51.com/sec/possible-upsets-this-weekend-that-would-shake-the-tree/)
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I'll be happy with a chalk weekend in the SEC this time around... :)
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What exactly to do with Texas? If it doesn’t win this week is extremely fascinating. It probably does win, and even if the résumé ends up a little soft, it’s not like there’s a lot out there to jump them.
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let's find out
you know, just for the fun of it!
the Hoosiers have only one-loss
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Texas is a 5.5 point favorite I see, so they "should" win about 2 out of 3, or so. I "think" the Dawgs might prefer A&M.
The UGA line has dropped to 18, still too high.
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I'll be happy with a chalk weekend in the SEC this time around... :)
I'll take chalk in the B1G!
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SOB's
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(https://i.imgur.com/CKXly70.jpeg)
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Could Oregon withstand back to back 59-0 losses, where they play like Wisconsin did in the 2014 BTCG?
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Could Oregon withstand back to back 59-0 losses, where they play like Wisconsin did in the 2014 BTCG?
I think so, but it might cost them a couple of seeds
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1982 - 42 years ago someone had an idea that one day could be a reality.
(https://i.imgur.com/qGVOBJN.jpeg)
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Looks a lot like 1984, sans BYU.
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yup, doesn't look like 82.......
Huskers were ranked #3 when they beat #11 OU on black friday
not sure how Sooners would get the #4 seed after that
wasn't 81 or 83
of course perhaps they recreated the entire season, but the Sooners just weren't #4 seed material from 80-83
maybe 84, but unlikely
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yup, doesn't look like 82.......
Huskers were ranked #3 when they beat #11 OU on black friday
not sure how Sooners would get the #4 seed after that
wasn't 81 or 83
of course perhaps they recreated the entire season, but the Sooners just weren't #4 seed material from 80-83
maybe 84, but unlikely
In the pre-bowl 1982 poll (12/6/1982):
- 11-0 Gerogia
- 10-1 Penn State
- 11-1 Nebraska
- 10-0-1 SMU
- 9-1-1 UCLA
- 9-2 Pitt
- 9-1-1 CLemson
- 9-2 Texas
- 9-2 Washington
- 9-2 West Virginia
- 9-2 Arizona State
- 8-3 Oklahoma
- 8-2-1 LSU
- 8-2-1 Arkansas
- 8-3 USC
- 8-3 Maryland
Ohio State would be the first team out at 8-3, #17
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who's the G5?
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I'd guess it was created in the off-season between 84 and 85.
But Penn St being there could mean off-season between 82 and 83.
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85 preseason poll
#1 OU
#2 Auburn
#3 SMU
#4 Iowa
#5 Florida
#6 MAryland
#7 USC
#8 Ohio St.
#9 Nebraska
#10 BYU
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(https://i.imgur.com/W4FcOQN.jpeg)
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What is the point of the Big Ten Championship game? All it does is shoot one of the Big Ten's two best teams in the ass wrt the playoffs. Does it make sense to keep it going forward? I would rather have another conference game added to the schedule for each team and drop a BCS cupcake or worse.
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