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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: LittlePig on November 24, 2024, 02:34:25 PM

Title: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 24, 2024, 02:34:25 PM

There are now 12 teams in the Big Ten that are Bowl Elligible

Ore,  Ohio St,  Ind,  Penn St,  Illinois, Iowa, Minn, Wash, Mich, Neb, USC, Rut

2 teams need to win their last game to become bowl elligible

..Mich St,  who hosts Rutgers on Sat.

..Wisconsin,   who hosts Minn on Black Friday

4 teams have 7 or more losses and are considered eliminated from being bowl elligible

Pur,  MD, NW, UCLA

Overall there are now 77 teams bowl elligible at the FBS level.  The number of teams forecast to become bowl elligible at the end of the season will exceed the 82 total slots available,  which means there will be no bowls filled with teams with 7 or more losses.

Up next:  actual bowl projections for each Big Ten Team.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 24, 2024, 02:57:17 PM

Bowl projections for each Big Ten Team

Oregon -  projected conference record 9-0,  overall record 13-0.  Projected Bowl:  Rose Bowl.  CFP #1 seed and first round bye.

Ohio St,  8-1,  11-2,  CFP #5 seed.  Will host CFP first round game

Penn St,  8-1,  11-1,  CFP #7 seed.  Will host CFP first round game.

Indiana,  8-1,  11-1,  CFP #10 seed.  Will play on road in CFP first round game.

Illinois,  6-3, 9-3,  Citrus (Orlando)

Iowa, 6-3, 8-4,  Reliaquest (Tampa)

Minn,  4-5,  6-6,  Duke's Mayo (Charlotte)

Wash,  4-5,  6-6,  Holiday (San Diego)

Mich, 4-5,  6-6,  Music City (Nashville)

USC,  4-5,  6-6,  Sun (El Paso)

Neb,  3-6,  6-6,  Rate (Phoenix)

Rut,  3-6,  6-6,  Boca Raton (Florida)

Wisc,  4-5, 6-6,  Pinstripe (Yankee stadium, NYC)

Mich St,  4-5,  6-6,  Detroit

UCLA,  3-6, 5-7,  No Bowl

NW,  2-7,  4-8, No Bowl

MD,  1-8,  4-8,  No Bowl

Pur,  0-9,  1-11,  No Bowl

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2024, 03:03:33 PM

13 SEC teams
with Auburn trying to become that way next weekend at Bama

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 24, 2024, 11:08:18 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 24, 2024, 03:03:33 PM

13 SEC teams
with Auburn trying to become that way next weekend at Bama

I figure the Big Ten has about an 85% chance to get at least 13 teams and a 40% chance to get 14 teams into a bowl.

Mich St should be favored to win at home against Rutgers.  I give MSU about a 75% chance to win.

Minn is probably better than Wisc,  but the game is at Wisc and is early in the week on Friday  Throw in the fact that Minn just had a. emotional game, losing  by 1-pt to MSU, and that Minn is already bowl elligible,  that helps even the odds.  I figure Wisc has a 50-50 chance to beat Minn

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 25, 2024, 07:56:41 AM

Below is some analysis I stole from a combination of different posters on a different message boad

RE: 2024 Bowl eligibility tracker There are now 77 eligible teams, with 5 more bowl slots to fill. Two games this week (Virginia-Virginia Tech and EMU-WMU) are between teams needing one more win. So at least 3 of the remaining 12 teams must win or 5-7 teams get their shot based on APR. If more than 3 win, some eligible team(s) must stay home. The 12 looking for their 6th win are: NC State @UNC (6-5) Kansas @Baylor (7-4) @Michigan State vs Rutgers (6-5) @Wisconsin vs Minnesota (6-5) Auburn @Alabama (8-3) North Texas @Temple (3-8) New Mexico @Hawaii (4-7) @UL-Monroe vs Louisiana (9-2) Appalachian State @Georgia Southern (7-4) Coastal Carolina @Georgia State (3-8) Oregon State @Boise State (10-1) @Cincinnati vs TCU (7-4) Using ESPN FPI,  the Median additional eligible: = 6.608.    79+6.6 = 85.6 bowl elligible teams using ESPN FPI. Another way is to use Vegas point spreads to project the following eligible by conference: 13...Big Ten 13...SEC 12...ACC 10...B12 8....AAC 8....SBC 7....MAC 6....MWC 4....CUSA 2....IND 1....PAC-2 84..Total Using Vegas point spreads If 2 teams will be left out, which conference(s) are they likely to come from? The list of 6-6 teams will be lengthy - about 30 teams. CUSA is likely to be spared, since with only 4 eligible schools they won't fill their contractual tie-ins. UConn is safe, as they have 7 wins. Another possibility,  the last time there was an excess of teams,  ESPN just made an extra bowl at the last minute.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2024, 08:05:32 AM

It's amazing so many still exist, it'll be more amazing if this many exist in five years, it's also amazing that "we" will watch many of them on TV, which is the point.  

Bowls now are a reward for a mediocre season, today, mostly, the players get to travel again, some swag, some fun, any draftables will sit out, and a lot of younger players get experience with extra practices.  I liken them to the Spring Games in effect.  

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 25, 2024, 08:28:18 AM

Some info on the legacy Pac-12 teams, which are still linked to the legacy Pac-12 bowls.  The Pac-12 has 6 tie-ins,  the Alamo, Holiday, LV,, Sun, LA, and Independence bowls.

There are 7 PAC12 legacy teams eligible. Two of them (Oregon and Arizona State) potentially could take CFP spots, which would leave only five available for PAC 12 slots: Cal, Colorado, USC, Washington, and Washington State.

Current projections for legacy PAC-12 schools are

Oregon.  -  CFP
Wash-  Holiday
USC -  Sun
UCLA - No Bowl

Ariz St - CFP
Col -  Alamo
Ariz - No Bowl
Utah - No Bowl

Cal - Los Angeles
Stan - No Bowl

Wash St - Las Vegas
Ore St - No Bowl

The current projection are that the Pac-12 legacy teams will not fill  the Independence slot. Now if Ariiz St fails to win the Big 12 championship,  then everybody slides down one spot.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2024, 10:27:11 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2024, 08:05:32 AM

It's amazing so many still exist, it'll be more amazing if this many exist in five years, it's also amazing that "we" will watch many of them on TV, which is the point. 

Bowls now are a reward for a mediocre season, today, mostly, the players get to travel again, some swag, some fun, any draftables will sit out, and a lot of younger players get experience with extra practices.  I liken them to the Spring Games in effect. 

not sure why you're so amazed
the games are an opportunity to make $$$
not all of them make $$, some break even and the organizers have something important to do
players and fans and coaches enjoy the game and prep time

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: ELA on November 25, 2024, 10:47:50 AM

Hopefully the officials are informed that its in the conference's best interest for MSU and Wisconsin to win this week ;)

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: Mdot21 on November 25, 2024, 10:55:04 AM

if Michigan does get the bowl game in Nashville might go to that....never been to Nashville have only heard great things.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2024, 10:56:52 AM

Nashville is a very fun destination, and they do a great job with the bowl game, making it a bonus.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: ELA on November 25, 2024, 11:02:26 AM

Quote from: Mdot21 on November 25, 2024, 10:55:04 AM

if Michigan does get the bowl game in Nashville might go to that....never been to Nashville have only heard great things.

And you just cross the foot bridge and you are on Broadway

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2024, 12:34:24 PM

I don't mind the minor bowl games, I do find it odd watching one with 3,000 people in attendance.  I dimly recall way back the Peach Bowl struggled with attendance and were facing being "delisted" a couple of times, so the Shriners went out and begged businesses to buy tickets, which they did enough to get past some attendance mandate.

The Peach Bowl when it started obviously was the most minor of minor bowls, then they hit on the ACC-SEC challenge concept, then CFA ponied up, and viola.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 29, 2024, 03:30:02 PM

Well, Wisconsin's long streak of 22 straight bowl games and 22 straight winning seasons is now over.  Wisconsin loses on Black Friday to Minn 24-7 to finish 5-7 for the year. 

So who currently has the longest streak of Big Ten teams of Bowl appearances and winning seasons?  I would guess Ohio St going back to 2012.  This beats Iowa by 1 year.  Depends in part if you count the COVID year or not, I would guess.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 29, 2024, 03:38:09 PM

Wisconsin could get one at 5-7 I think, but they don't deserve it. Sucks to lose the 15 practices.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 29, 2024, 03:59:18 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 29, 2024, 03:38:09 PM

Wisconsin could get one at 5-7 I think, but they don't deserve it. Sucks to lose the 15 practices.

Things can change but at the start of this week we already knew 79 out of the 82 bowls slots would already be  filled.  So only 3 more needed to be filled.  I think it's over for Wisconsin.

Also I know coaches insist those 15 practices are important,  but I have seen little evidence that it actually helps the team's record the following season.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 29, 2024, 04:01:58 PM

I'm fine with that. 

The Badgers will be very young next year so I do think the extra time would have helped.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 30, 2024, 09:03:49 PM

Mich St gets blown out by Rutgers to finish 5-7.

It is now confirmed there will be at least 82 bowl elligible teams with at least 6 wins.  There are only 82 bowl spots available.  Which means no 5-7 teams will be going to a bowl this year.

Which means Wisc, Mich St,  UCLA are all now officially eliminated.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2024, 05:33:48 AM

I think the bowl practices can be useful with young teams, a kind of pre-preseason.  The benefit may be so slight as to not be apparent next fall, but it seems like it would be a thing.  You probably have some higher level players sitting out so you get some freshmen involved early.  And the players get some swag and another trip somewhere.

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on December 01, 2024, 07:00:02 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 01, 2024, 05:33:48 AM

I think the bowl practices can be useful with young teams, a kind of pre-preseason.  The benefit may be so slight as to not be apparent next fall, but it seems like it would be a thing.  You probably have some higher level players sitting out so you get some freshmen involved early.  And the players get some swag and another trip somewhere.

Just my opinion,  but I think a lot of coaches claim the extra practices are helpful because that's what they enjoy doing.  They would rather be leading a practice than be out on the road recruiting or starting the painful process of evaluating what can be improved from the last season.   But iwhat is a better use of a coach's time?

If there was a clear competative advantage to the extra practices,  why doesn't the NCAA just let everybody have the extra practices?

Title: Re: Big Ten Bowl Projections After Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on December 01, 2024, 07:19:22 AM

Now that New Mex @Hawaii game is done,  the final tally is in. 

There are exactly 82 teams bowl elligible with 82 bowl slots available.  So no 6-6 teams will be left out.  No 5-7 teams will be invited unless an elligible team turns down a bowl invite.  5-7 Cincinatti would be the team with the highest APR if a bowl slot does open up.

Turned out to be a bad weekend for 5-win teams that needed just 1 more win to make a bowl.  Those 12 teams went 3-9 overall.