CFB51 College Football Fan Community

The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 24, 2024, 11:42:30 AM

Title: B1GCG Race heading into final weekend
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 24, 2024, 11:42:30 AM
I'll go a little deeper on explaining the tiebreakers later but the simple version is this:


Title: Re: B1GCG Race heading into final weekend
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2024, 11:49:26 AM
Some updates, first the opponents' opponents' records:
(https://i.imgur.com/ZCN4fN5.png)
This is relevant because it is the operative tiebreaker in a number of scenarios.  To explain it, using Ohio State as the example:

The first thing listed are all of Ohio State's league opponents this year and their records so far.  Ie, Oregon is 8-0, IU is 7-1, etc.  For the Buckeyes that adds up to 39-33 or .542.  

Next you can see that Ohio State's nine opponents have played 72 games and there are 9 left.  

Next, note that this weekend IU/PU and IA/UNL play each other.  In both of those cases, both teams are opponents of Ohio State so the Buckeyes' opponents are guaranteed to pick up two wins and two losses from those games.  That brings Ohio State's opponents up to 41-35 with five games remaining.  

Finally, based on the remaining games I have a best-case and worst-case opponents' line.  Ohio State's opponents can do no worse than just over .500 at 41-40 and none of the other contenders opponents can get close to that.  Thus, Ohio State will win any tie in which this is the operative tiebreaker.  

I'll add here that Indiana is locked into last place on this tiebreaker.  It *LOOKS* like they could catch up because their opponents' best-case-scenario is 34-47 which is a game better than the worst-case-scenario for Penn State's opponents and three games better than the worst-case-scenario for Oregon's opponents.  Indiana can't actually catch either though because too many of their opponents are mutual opponents of the Lions and Ducks.  In those cases a win for the Hoosiers' opponents is ALSO a win for the Lions/Ducks opponents.  

The race between PSU and Oregon is close and would be exciting but for the fact that it can't actually matter.  

This will be the relevant tiebreaker in the event of a four-way tie for first place (Oregon loses, tOSU, PSU, and IU all win).  In that case Ohio State will win based on a superior cumulative league record by their opponents.  

As @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) pointed out, the other team in the CG will NOT be the team with the next best cumulative league record by opponents.  Instead, Ohio State is removed from the tie and the other three return to the top of the tiebreakers.  Oregon wins that based on record against common league opponents due to having beaten tOSU while IU and PSU both lost to tOSU.  
Title: Re: B1GCG Race heading into final weekend
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2024, 12:08:36 PM
All four contenders are playing at home this weekend as HUGE favorites.  According to the Worldwide leader the lines are:


With four games there are 16 possible outcomes since each game has two (2^4=16) so here are the 16 possible outcomes:
(https://i.imgur.com/BMGzIUT.png)
I'll explain tiebreakers later.  This is in order of likelihood based on espn's lines.  
Title: Re: B1GCG Race heading into final weekend
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2024, 02:27:05 PM
Tiebreakers by scenario:

#1, IU, PSU, tOSU, Ore all win:
Oregon wins the #1 seed outright at 9-0.  IU, PSU, and tOSU all tie for #2 at 8-1.  The Buckeyes win based on H2H because they beat the other two.  

#2 IU, PSU, tOSU, and UWash all win:
This creates the monster four-way tie at 8-1 between the Hoosiers, Lions, Buckeyes, and Ducks.  The first operative tiebreaker is "cumulative league record of league opponents".  Ohio State wins by a mile.  Oddly, that does not give tOSU the #1 seed and it also does not mean that the team with the second best opponents record is tOSU's opponent.  Instead the other three teams go to the top of the tiebreakers and Oregon wins based on common opponents because they beat and the other two lost to tOSU.  Then seeding as between the Bucks and Ducks is determined by the two-team tiebreaker where Oregon wins based on H2H.  

#3 IU, PSU, M, and UWash all win:  
Oregon wins the #1 seed outright at 9-0.  Indiana and Penn State tie for #2 at 8-1.  Penn State wins this based on SoS.  

#4 IU, PSU, M, and UWash all win:
Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State tie at 8-1.  Oregon wins based on common opponents.  Then PSU beats out Indiana based on SoS.  

#5 IU, UMD, tOSU, Ore all win:
Oregon wins the #1 seed outright at 9-0.  Indiana and Ohio State tie for #2 at 8-1.  The Buckeyes win that based on H2H.  

#6 IU, UMD, tOSU, UWash all win:
Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State all tie at 8-1.  Ohio State wins that based on SoS then Oregon beats IU based on common opponents, then Oregon gets the #1 seed based on H2H.  

#7 IU, UMD, M, UWash all win:  
Oregon wins the #1 seed outright at 9-0.  Indiana wins the #2 seed outright at 8-1.  

#8 IU, UMD, M, UWash all win:
Oregon and Indiana tie at 8-1.  Oregon gets the #1 seed based on common opponents.  

#9 PU, PSU, tOSU, Ore all win:
Oregon wins the #1 seed outright at 9-0.  Ohio State and Penn State tie for the #2 seed at 8-1 and Ohio State wins that based on H2H.  

#10 PU, PSU, tOSU, and UWash all win:
Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State all tie at 8-1.  Ohio State wins that based on SoS.  Oregon beats out PSU based on common opponents.  Oregon gets the #1 seed based on H2H.  

#11 PU, PSU, M, and Ore all win:
Oregon wins the #1 seed outright at 9-0.  Penn State wins the #2 seed outright at 8-1.  

#12 PU, PSU, M, UWash all win:
Oregon and Penn State tie at 8-1.  Oregon gets the #1 seed based on common opponents.  

#13 PU, UMD, tOSU, Ore all win:
Oregon wins the #1 seed outright at 9-0.  Ohio State wins the #2 seed outright at 8-1. 

#14 PU, UMD, tOSU, UWash all win:
Oregon and Ohio State tie at 8-1.  Oregon gets the #1 seed based on H2H.  

#15 PU, UMD, M, Ore all win:
Oregon wins the #1 seed outright by two games at 9-0.  Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana all tie for #2 at 7-2.  Ohio State wins the tie based on H2H.  

#16 the favorites all lose:
Oregon wins the #1 seed outright at 8-1.  Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana all tie for #2 at 7-2.  Ohio State wins the tie based on H2H.