CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2024, 10:23:03 AM
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By upsets, I mean when a 14 point dog ends up winning. Of course, we're talking about emotional 20 year olds, that is a factor.
Another thing I see is the battle of inches, one team ends up making 9 yards in a series and punts, the opponent then manages 10 and keeps the drive alive, it's statistically almost a random event. Speaking of randomness, turnovers of course, and special teams, a FG sneaks inside the upright, or doinks off it. Then there are missed assignments, of course better teams would do it less often, but they happen, and can randomly pile up against you. A pass gets dropped, another is barely tipped, a receiver keeps a foot in bounds, or doesn't, a referee calls a phantom holding penalty ...
A 14 point dog in CFB wins about 12% of the time, that's of course one time in eight. This is statistically like a coin flip coming up heads 3 times in a row, really not that surprising put that way.
Imagine your team is elite, and will be a 14 point favorite in all 12 games, you are likely to lose at least one.
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Sooners were a 13.5 dog to Bama
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Sooners were a 13.5 dog to Bama
And won by 21 - a 34.5 point swing.
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Stanford was 42 point dogs to I believe #1 ranked Pete Carroll's USC when Jeem upset 'em. That one is still probably the most shocking greatest of all-time as far as I can remember.
OAM says it all the time...these are 18-22 year olds dealing with headaches at school, family issues, trying to get laid 24/7 in college,....they are going to be distracted, they are going to feel themselves way too much/buy into the hype and not get up, prepare, and take every opponent as seriously as they should week in week out and stay on that grind.
NIL/Portal has evened out the playing field a little bit as well. Alabama/UGA just stacking the deck against everyone else ain't really possible anymore. Sure they'll have more talent that X,Y,Z school and 99% of the teams they play- but it will not be with the overwhelming force it used be in years past.
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Usually takes a bunch of turnovers.
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Football is perhaps by far the most coached sport around. The coaches get input before every play, and there is little chance for players to be creative or put their own spin on the game. So the game in large part comes down to the players being able to carry out the instructions they are given. Do they get people blocked? Does the QB make the right read? Every play has a bunch of coin flips to it, and we all know the nature of coin flips.
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In order to make the thread simpler to understand, here's an example of one of these "upsets" that was mentioned in the OP.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EucHwJoYWgA&t=1s
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How do they happen? Ask Buckeye fans next Saturday around 3:30
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These are great posts, and when taken all together, provide a pretty thorough answer.
1 - with so many games, you get a great, big, fat sample size - from which you inevitably get a certain number of upsets
2 - these are young men who struggle with consistency in any/all facets of life
3 - turnovers, which we know don't tend to carry over season-to-season, so within the parameters of 12 games or so, the oblong ball can bounce for you or against you more than expected
Combine these main points and there you have it.
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Also, a high-energy environment from the start seems to help. Most big underdogs don't keep things close and hang around to the end lethargically, lol.
And just staying close as deep into the game as you can until the pressure builds on the other sideline.
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It does seem like there have been more than the usual # of upsets this year, and yet the teams with money do seem to rise to the top.
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Stanford was 42 point dogs to I believe #1 ranked Pete Carroll's USC when Jeem upset 'em.
That was the only time Booger had a right to get in anyone's face as Lady Clairol asked for it.
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In order to make the thread simpler to understand, here's an example of one of these "upsets" that was mentioned in the OP.
WTH if ya can't troll this week then when can you?
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How do they happen? Ask Buckeye fans next Saturday around 3:30
love the confidence but I just don't see it....Davis Warren is our QB bro....