CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: LittlePig on November 24, 2024, 07:56:55 AM
-
Well, everything is a lot clearer now.
1. Oregon - had the week off. Has clinched a spot in CCG.
2. Ohio St - dominated Indiana at home. OSU has lost to Oregon on the road by 1-pt. OSU has beat PSU on the road and Ind at home. OSU needs to beat Mich to make it to CCG for a rematch against Oregon.
3. Indiana - lost on road to Ohio St. Indiana has dominated in every game this year except for 2 games. A close win over Mich and 23-point loss at Ohio St.
4. Penn St - won by 1-pt at Minn. Penn St has dominated most of its games except for 3 games. A 7-pt loss at home to Ohio St, an OT win at USC and a 1-pt win at Minn.
5. Iowa - won at MD by 16 points. Iowa wins with its 5th string QB startig due to injuries. Really, It does not matter who plays QB for Iowa as long as Kaleb Johnson is playing RB.
6. Minnesota - lost by 1-pt at home to Penn St. Minn is a good team. Key for me is Minn beat ILL and UCLA on the road, but lost at home to Iowa.
7. Illinois - won on road at Rutgers in last seconds. The key question is Illinois really any good, or just good enough (lucky enough) to pull out close victories at the end of games. In addition to last second miracle against Rut, ILL also has 2 wins in OT this year. They feel more like a 4-4 team lucky enough to be 5-3.
8. Washington - had the week off. Wash has won all its home games and lost all its road games. Key game in power rankings is that Wash did beat Mich.
9. Michigan - dominated NW at home. Key games, Mich has lost to Wash and ILL, but has beaten Minn and USC.
10. USC - won at UCLA to become bowl elligible.. USC's loss at MD looks worse every week.
11. UCLA - lost to USC at home. UCLA was a decent team at the end despite a bad start to the season.
12. Rutgers - lost in last seconds at home to ILL. Rutgers seems to have had some bad luck at home this year.
13. Mich St - beat Purdue at home. MSU seemed it was ready to step it up after big win against Iowa but kinda fizzled down the stretch.
14. Nebraska - beat Wisc at home to become bowl elligible. Win over Wisc stops Nebraska's free fall and saves the season.
15. Wisconsin - lost on road to Neb. Maybe Wisc should have fired their defensive coordinater too..
16. Northwestern. - lost on road to Mich.
17. Purdue - lost on road at MSU. Purdue is bad, but also a little unlucky. Losing 2 games in OT.
18. Maryland - lost at home to Iowa. In the end MD lost a lot at home. MD's only Big Ten win this year was at home by 1-pt over USC. It's a safe bet the coach is going to get fired.
-
Now that Maryland would be -4, I'm removing them from the formula, and just ranking #5 through #15
- OREGON (1) - bye week
- OHIO STATE (2) - after the first drive, defense looked lights out
- PENN STATE (4) - fast start
- INDIANA (3) - bye week
- IOWA (5) +1 (+58)
- ILLINOIS (11) +1 (+31)
- MINNESOTA (6) +1 (-8)
- WISCONSIN (9) +1 (-33)
- USC (10) E (+36)
- WASHINGTON (12) E (E)
- UCLA (7) E (-9)
- MICHIGAN (13) E (-11)
- MICHIGAN STATE (8) E (-13)
- NEBRASKA (15) -2 (+11)
- RUTGERS (14) -2 (-64)
- NORTHWESTERN (17) - just hapless on offense
- MARYLAND (16) - looks like they are just awful, with one fluke win over USC
- PURDUE (18) - team does still appear to have fight
-
@ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55),
Demoting MD to the bottom 3 was probably overdue by a couple of weeks.
They look so bad, I even put them below Purdue this week. I have a hunch Locksley will be gone at the end of the season.
-
- OREGON
- OHIO STATE
- INDIANA
- PENN STATE
- IOWA
- ILLINOIS
- MINNESOTA
- WISCONSIN
- USC
- NEBRASKA
- UCLA
- WASHINGTON
- MICHIGAN
- MICHIGAN STATE
- RUTGERS
- NORTHWESTERN
- MARYLAND
- PURDUE
-
1)Ducks stuck here
2)Bucks stuck here after a solid home win and Meeecheegan coming in
3)Ninnies win a close one against the Minnies
4)Hoosiers,tough road loss
5)Illini 8-3 pulled a fast one and a last TD ranked 24 in the country
6)Minny tough loss have badgers on deck
7)Michigan finds an offense scoring 50,of course right before Ohio St - sandbaggers
8)Hawks turfed the Terps
9)'Skers throttled the Fading Fickels
10)Huskies they didn't lose and have the Ducks on deck
to the rest you know the drill
have a great Thanksgiving anyway everyone
-
(https://i.imgur.com/rTmbwa0.jpeg)
-
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Indiana
5. Iowa
6. Illinois
7. Washington
8. Michigan
9. Minnesota
10. USC
11. Nebraska
12. Wisconsin
13. Michigan State
14. UCLA
15. Rutgers
16. Northwestern
17. Maryland
18. Purdue
-
This table clarifies a lot to me:
(https://i.imgur.com/sD34QLr.png)
-
There are nine B1G teams that are currently .500 or better, they are:
- 8-0 Oregon
- 7-1 Ohio State
- 7-1 Penn State
- 7-1 Indiana
- 5-3 Illinois
- 5-3 Iowa
- 4-4 Minnesota
- 4-4 Washington
- 4-4 Michigan
Here, for each B1G team, are the number of games against these nine, and record:
- 6 Michigan, 1-4 with one to play
- 6 UCLA, 1-5
- 6 Michigan State, 1-5
- 6 Northwestern, 0-5 with one to play
- 5 Ohio State, 3-1 with one to play
- 5 Washington, 1-3 with one to play
- 5 Maryland, 0-4 with one to play
- 5 Purdue, 0-4 with one to play
- 4 Oregon, 3-0 with one to play
- 4 Penn State, 3-1
- 4 Illinois, 1-3
- 4 Minnesota, 1-3
- 4 Wisconsin, 0-3 with one to play
- 4 Nebraska, 0-3 with one to play
- 4 USC, 0-4
- 3 Rutgers, 2-1
- 3 Iowa, 2-1
- 3 Indiana, 2-1
My point is that the term "B1G Schedule" in an anachronism. They are no longer homogenous enough to just think of as all the same. There is a vast difference between playing MSU, UCLA, or M's schedule and playing RU, IA, or IU's schedule.
The two Michigan's and UCLA each play three of the top-4 teams. They are 0-8 in those games with one to play. Indiana, Iowa, and Rutgers are also winless against the top-4 but it is only 0-2 with the Hoosiers and Hawkeyes both losing to Ohio State.
-
The bigger gap is probably between top-4 and the rest rather than top-9 and the rest so here are games and records against the top-4:
- 4 Purdue, 0-3 with one to play
- 3 Ohio State, 2-1
- 3 Michigan, 0-2 with one to play
- 3 Washington, 0-2 with one to play
- 3 Maryland, 0-2 with one to play
- 3 Michigan State, 0-3
- 3 UCLA, 0-3
- 2 Illinois, 0-2
- 2 Wisconsin, 0-2
- 2 Nebraska, 0-2
- 2 Northwestern, 0-2
- 1 Oregon, 1-0
- 1 Penn State, 0-1
- 1 Indiana, 0-1
- 1 Iowa, 0-1
- 1 Minnesota, 0-1
- 1 USC, 0-1
- 0 Rutgers
-
1) Still Ohio State
2) Still Oregon
3) Indiana, but by a hair. Playing at OSU they were going to lose some points, but are they really better than Penn State? Hmmm.
4) Penn State: a couple of uninspiring wins, including a tough one this week, but Minnesota is the kind of team that can do that to you. Just enough to keep them below Indiana.
5) Same ol' Iowa.
6) Minnesota: going to keep them here this week. Good effort against PSU, and that's better than Illinois' very close call against Rutgers. So no change.
7) Illinois: not a great showing against Rutgers, but it's a win. Bielema might need to work on coaching his boys up when they are playing gutter teams.
8) Washington: no game, no change.
9) Michigan: better than everyone below, which doesn't say much (particularly when this is still in the bottom half of the conference).
10) USC: see Michigan.
11) Nebraska: good job, Big Red.
12) Mighigan State: winning is better than losing, and I'm frustrated by the Badgers, so I'm pushing them down.
13) Wisconsin: wins were flashes in the pan against bad teams. This team is not good.
14) UCLA: not quite in the cellar, but on the cellar stairs. Against Wisconsin it would depend on who was at home--or closer to home.
15) Rutgers: put up a pretty good fight; more of one than Northwestern.
16) Northwestern: ouch.
17) Maryland: still losing.
18) Purdue: 0-fer is 0-fer; no points for making MSU work.
-
(https://i.imgur.com/FMl9yL6.png)
-
Starting at the top:
I think everyone is agreed that the Ducks and Bucks are the top-2. Personally, I'm surprised that Oregon is a near-unanimous pick for #1.
My view is that a 1 point win by a home team isn't conclusive. Here are Oregon's and tOSU's columns from my performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/sIb5efX.png)
As mentioned above, I simply don't see Oregon's 1 point home win as conclusive.
Next, Ohio State has a one-score road win at Penn State and a big win at home over IU. Oregon didn't play them.
The 29/28 point home wins over IL/IA seem pretty comparable to me.
Oregon's worst performance is probably their 3 point win over UWisc and tOSU's is their 4 point win over UNL.
Ohio State looked better against MSU (31 on the road vs 21 at home).
Ohio State's 24 point road win over NU seems reasonably comparable to Oregon's 21 point road and home wins over UCLA and Maryland.
The Bucks and Ducks looked about equal against Purdue. Ohio State won by 10 more points but at home so this is about the same as winning by 10 less on the road. Furthermore, I don't think it is wise to read too much into the difference anyway because both teams won easily and either probably could have won by a little more if they had wanted to bad enough.
That seems awfully close to a push to me. I lean tOSU simply because I believe that HFA is real and if it is then a team that loses on the road by 1 would win on a neutral field.
Next we get to IU and PSU where it seems most of the board has IU ahead. I disagree. Here are IU's and PSU's columns:
(https://i.imgur.com/OrUOycQ.png)
They both lost to Ohio State but PSU looked like a relatively even match-up, IU didn't.
The MN/M results are probably reasonably comparable but PSU has a 14 point win over IL that IU can't match due to their insanely weak schedule.
PSU looked better against Washington.
PSU played USC and UWisc on the road and IU played UNL at home and MSU on the road. PSU's opponents were tougher and IU had bigger margins.
IU looked better against UCLA.
This is fairly close too. I'd lean PSU for three reasons:
- I think the tOSU comparison is more important than the others and PSU wins that one easily.
- I expect PSU to beat UMD by a lot more than 14 points.
- I do NOT expect IU to beat PU by 39.
As I see it, #5-#9 has to be the rest of the .500+ teams so here are their columns:
(https://i.imgur.com/mJR6NWG.png)
Against Oregon and Ohio State they all looked bad (21-29 point losses).
Minnesota looked best against PSU.
Michigan looked best against Indiana.
Minnesota looked best against Illinois.
Iowa comes off looking great in the comparisons against themselves.
Iowa looked best against Minnesota.
Illinois looked best against Michigan.
Iowa looked best against Washington.
The three that played USC each barely beat them. Maybe USC is just unlucky?
Iowa looked great against Wisconsin.
Illinois looked best against Rutgers.
Illinois looked best against Michigan State.
After adjusting for HFA, they all looked about the same against UCLA.
Michigan looked best against Northwestern.
Minnesota looked best against Maryland.
I typed all that out thinking that a clear #5 would emerge but that didn't happen. It is just a muddled mess. Looking above I have:
- 4 "bests" for Iowa (IA, MN, the UW's)
- 3 "bests" for Illinois (M, RU, MSU)
- 3 "bests" for Minnesota (PSU, IL, UMD)
- 2 "bests" for Michigan (IU, NU)
I guess that eliminates Washington because they didn't look best against any opponent. I guess Iowa is #5. Then I'd go IL, M, MN but that is highly debatable.
-
What the comparison of the top 4 tells me is that it's silly to have an 18-team conference, and a 9-game schedule. But what do I know?
I guess one thing I know is that TV money is pretty great.
-
@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547)
I totally understand your thought process but the game was played and OSU lost albeit on the road head to head
they are very close but just the head to head I give the top to Oregon but if they played 10 times on neutral sites in the middle so both travel the same they probably end up 50/50 give or take 1 game
The show down in the CC will be key and fun to watch
-
@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547)
I totally understand your thought process but the game was played and OSU lost albeit on the road head to head
they are very close but just the head to head I give the top to Oregon but if they played 10 times on neutral sites in the middle so both travel the same they probably end up 50/50 give or take 1 game
The show down in the CC will be key and fun to watch
What I REALLY don't like is treating H2H as an end-all, be-all that trumps everything. If one team is CLEARLY better but lost H2H, I'll still put them ahead.
That doesn't apply here because it is CLOSE ignoring the H2H.
In this situation it isn't so much that I'm arguing to value the rest of the season over H2H as that I'm arguing that from a "Power Ranking" perspective, I don't think a 1 point win by the home team means much of anything. I can make a compelling argument that it means that the visitor should be ranked AHEAD of the team that beat them. Vegas generally says HFA is worth 3-5 points so a team that lost on the road by 1 should WIN by 2-4 at a neutral site and win at home by 5-9.
OTOH, I do get where you are coming from. At the end of the day you either won or lost. Oregon won and Ohio State lost.
If the Buckeyes beat Michigan we'll get a neutral site match-up in a week and a half.
If you were compelled to wager an appreciable sum of your own cash on the potential Oregon/Ohio State neutral site CG in Indianapolis straight up (no spread), which team would you put your money on?
For me, the answer to that question is Ohio State and to me that is how a Power Ranking should be voted.
-
Looking further down, maybe USC is just snakebit?
They are done with B1G play at 4-5. The only home loss was to Penn State and that was in OT. The other home games were a blowout of Rutgers, a three-score win over Wisconsin, and a solid win over Nebraska. All five losses were one-score games. They are literally five plays from 9-0.
Seven of USC's nine games have been decided by one score. Wisconsin is their opposite. Their three point home loss to Oregon is their ONLY one score game. They have big losses to PSU, IA, USC, and UNL. They have big wins over RU, NU, and PU.
You might say "well everybody beats RU, NU, and PU big" and to an extent you have a point but Wisconsin's 46 point win over Purdue was the second biggest MOV in the whole conference this year (behind IU's 49 over UNL and ahead of tOSU's 45 over PU and M's 44 of NU). Wisconsin's 35 point win in Piscataway was Rutgers' worst loss this season. The Badgers' 20 point road win over Northwestern was comparable to tOSU's 24 point road win over the Wildcats and if you adjust for HFA it was equivalent to Iowa's 26 point win over NU. My point is that Wisconsin is hard to figure out because their wins have been REALLY good, best-in-the-conference good but their losses have been REALLY bad.
Rutgers is another team that has kept their fans entertained. They are 2-3 in their five one-score games.
With Nebraska I think you have to just treat the tOSU and IU games as offsetting weird results. Given the rest of their results there is no way they should have been that close to tOSU nor that far from IU but they were.
I frankly think that MSU is better than most people are giving them credit for. They had to play five of the top-6 teams in the league and they went 1-4 in those games.
UCLA might be the most unpredictable team in the league. They have respectable road wins over RU and UNL but a team good enough to win those shouldn't have lost at home to MN and USC.
Northwestern is just plain bad. Their two wins are over the worst two teams.
Maryland, notwithstanding the USC win, is worse. The Terps may actually be worse than . . .
Purdue is winless but they do have two OT losses and an additional one-score loss.
-
The bigger gap is probably between top-4 and the rest rather than top-9 and the rest so here are games and records against the top-4:
I think if you tweaked the conference standings to imagine that the top-4 all played each other and that the bottom 14 each played 2 out of 4 top-4 teams, it might look something like this
1. Oregon 7-1
2. Ohio Sr 7-1
3. Ind 6-2
4. PSU 6-2
5. ILL 5-3
6. Iowa 4-4
7. Wash 4-4
8. Mich 4-4
9. Mich St 4-4
10. UCLA 4-5
11. Minn 3-5
12. Neb 3-5
13. Wisc 3-5
14. USC 3-6
15. NW 2-6
16. Rut 2-6
18. Pur 1-7
18. MD 1-7
Not a dramatic difference. MSU, UCLA, Purdue would be 1 game better. Iowa, minn, USC, Rut one game worse.
-
Looking further down, maybe USC is just snakebit?
They are done with B1G play at 4-5. The only home loss was to Penn State and that was in OT. The other home games were a blowout of Rutgers, a three-score win over Wisconsin, and a solid win over Nebraska. All five losses were one-score games. They are literally five plays from 9-0.
Seven of USC's nine games have been decided by one score.
USC sounds a lot like Kansas in the Big 12. Kansas had a lot close losses early, now they are on a roll. First losing team ever to beat 3 ranked teams in a row.
-
What I REALLY don't like is treating H2H as an end-all, be-all that trumps everything. If one team is CLEARLY better but lost H2H, I'll still put them ahead.
That doesn't apply here because it is CLOSE ignoring the H2H.
In this situation it isn't so much that I'm arguing to value the rest of the season over H2H as that I'm arguing that from a "Power Ranking" perspective, I don't think a 1 point win by the home team means much of anything. I can make a compelling argument that it means that the visitor should be ranked AHEAD of the team that beat them. Vegas generally says HFA is worth 3-5 points so a team that lost on the road by 1 should WIN by 2-4 at a neutral site and win at home by 5-9.
OTOH, I do get where you are coming from. At the end of the day you either won or lost. Oregon won and Ohio State lost.
If the Buckeyes beat Michigan we'll get a neutral site match-up in a week and a half.
If you were compelled to wager an appreciable sum of your own cash on the potential Oregon/Ohio State neutral site CG in Indianapolis straight up (no spread), which team would you put your money on?
For me, the answer to that question is Ohio State and to me that is how a Power Ranking should be voted.
if i had to bet...yep I would place money on OSU because i know them a lot better and they do have a long long long history of excellence
and you should beat Michigan this weekend and i don't really think it will be close so earning the chance to play them again
say split with them and you win by more than 1 point this will justify your weekly ranking.
years ago without a 12 or even a 4 team playoff a loss was a loss and it really did mean more and you could not usually atone for the "bad" day
I would also say to your situation traveling across the time zones for a regular season game is worth a point or two as well
-
The issue with USC is the Maryland loss. The top 4 havent lost any games outside of each other. The bottom 3 havent won any games outsode of each other... except for Maryland beating USC. Fine, one score game, but Maryland went 1-4 at home in the conference, and the 4 losses were MSU, Northwestern, Iowa and Rutgers. I dont care if its close, thats a disqualifying loss, when you have nothing to counter it with in conference
-
I get the logic that Ohio St only lost to Oregon by 1-pt on the road, but it's a game that could have gone either way and Oregon found a way to win (and OSU didn't).
I expect a rematch between the same 2 teams to be the same. 2 fairly even teams in a game that could go either way, but I am giving the edge to the team that won the first time.
I think I may also be influenced by what happened last year between Wash and Oregon. Wash beat Oregon in the regular season and was undefeated, yet Oregon was a heavy favorite to win the Pac-12 CCG. Then Wash beat Oregon again.
So this time I guess I figure until Oregon loses at least once, they will remain my number #1 team.
-
Updated SOR/SP+
- #12 Boise State at #5 OHIO STATE; winner vs. #4 BYU
- #11 Notre Dame at #6 Georgia; winner vs. #3 SMU
- #10 Tennessee at #7 PENN STATE; winner vs. #2 Texas
- #9 INDIANA at #8 Miami; winner vs. #1 OREGON
-
would probably produce a final 4 of Ohio St, Georgia, Texas, & Oregon
-
I would love to see BYU and SMU in the final four.
-
just to drive OAM nutz?
it would have to be the work of God
-
just to drive OAM nutz?
it would have to be the work of God
No. Just to see the sport take a deserved punch in the face.
-
If they make it to the final 4 how is the sport taking a punch in the face? The teams they beat, should have sucked less.
-
If they make it to the final 4 how is the sport taking a punch in the face? The teams they beat, should have sucked less.
Poor ratings for the semis?
-
yes, ratings would be down
and the SEC would be furious
-
All of the above.
I'm pissed at the people who ruined the sport. They need to feel as much pain as possible.
-
Networks and the SEC SEC SEC
-
The networks would take a punch in the face, but it would be awesome for the sport. Win and advance. Lose, too bad sucka.
-
we all know playoff tournaments can produce cinderellas
and Cinderellas are wonderful stories that can produce ratings
david & goliath
-
TCU beat the hell outta Michigan a couple years ago. Lots of folks loved that. Especially Ohio State fans!
-
TCU beat the hell outta Michigan a couple years ago. Lots of folks loved that. Especially Ohio State fans!
And that was really the only shocking result of the entire 10 year history of the CFP
-
And that was really the only shocking result of the entire 10 year history of the CFP
With the parity of unlimited free agency, I expect we'll see more upsets in the future.
-
And that was really the only shocking result of the entire 10 year history of the CFP
And in retrospect that isn't even a shocking upset now that we know what happened.
-
would probably produce a final 4 of Ohio St, Georgia, Texas, & Oregon
And the semi's would be:
- Oregon vs Ohio State III
- Texas vs Georgia III
-
And that was really the only shocking result of the entire 10 year history of the CFP
well, with only 4 teams, not gonna git a Tulane very often
-
And the semi's would be:
- Oregon vs Ohio State III
- Texas vs Georgia III
I don't mind rematches
if they're well matched teams and give an entertaining game
now, the 3rd matchup of Ohio St. and Indiana with 3 lopsided outcomes would be brutal
-
FWIW, don't overlook the rivlary games Ohio State and Oregon have to play this weekend. Washington and Michigan, while not having great seasons, still have the players to beat their rivals. Oregon has a bit of a little brother complex to Washington. They'll never admit it, but Washington has a more reliably good program than Oregon, for a much longer history (or at least that's my impression having grown up in the Pac-10).
These are exactly the kinds of games that make these rivalries great: one team is on the cusp of greatness, the other is having an off year, but brings all it has to this game. I don't have any statistics on it, but I'd bet that the winning percentage for the higher ranked team isn't much different when the lower ranked team is a 2-loss team vs. a 4-loss team (I know, Michigan and Washington are both 5-loss teams, but the 12-game schedule is still relatively new, for the purposes of historical CFB statistics).
Wisconsin won its first Rose Bowl as the result of Michigan winning one of these kinds of games. I'm sure there are many other similar examples.
The favorites are playing at home, which will help even more, but don't sleep on the challengers.
-
I thought the beavers were the duck's rival
you know, the Civil War
-
I don't mind rematches
if they're well matched teams and give an entertaining game
now, the 3rd matchup of Ohio St. and Indiana with 3 lopsided outcomes would be brutal
What is hard for me to reconcile is that one team could "lose" the three game series by a count of two wins and one loss. Suppose:
- Georgia beats Texas AGAIN in the SECCG, and
- Oregon beats Ohio State AGAIN in the B1GCG, and
- Texas beats Georgia in one National Semi-Final, and
- Ohio State beats Oregon in the other National Semi-Final.
In that case the Bulldawgs and Ducks would be 2-1 against the Longhorns and Buckeyes respectively but they'd have to watch on TV while Ohio State played Texas for the National Championship.
-
Oregon State is to Oregon what Michigan State is to Michigan, and Iowa State is to Iowa.
Maybe not quite. In the old days, when Oregon wasn't consistently good, the Civil War was probably the more important game. But since Oregon has had the Phil Knight money, Oregon wants to be Washington, and this is the bigger rivlary game. Similar for Washington: yes, they have Wazzu (like Iowa has Iowa State), but their real Pac-10 rivals were USC and Oregon.
-
FWIW, don't overlook the rivlary games Ohio State and Oregon have to play this weekend. Washington and Michigan, while not having great seasons, still have the players to beat their rivals. Oregon has a bit of a little brother complex to Washington. They'll never admit it, but Washington has a more reliably good program than Oregon, for a much longer history (or at least that's my impression having grown up in the Pac-10).
These are exactly the kinds of games that make these rivalries great: one team is on the cusp of greatness, the other is having an off year, but brings all it has to this game. I don't have any statistics on it, but I'd bet that the winning percentage for the higher ranked team isn't much different when the lower ranked team is a 2-loss team vs. a 4-loss team (I know, Michigan and Washington are both 5-loss teams, but the 12-game schedule is still relatively new, for the purposes of historical CFB statistics).
Wisconsin won its first Rose Bowl as the result of Michigan winning one of these kinds of games. I'm sure there are many other similar examples.
The favorites are playing at home, which will help even more, but don't sleep on the challengers.
I agree with this. Part of it is the motivation issue. The Huskies and Wolverines are playing their "Superbowl" this weekend. Neither can make either the B1GCG or the CFP so their bowls will be also-ran crappy bowls that most of their starters will opt out of. They have NOTHING to lose. The Ducks and Bucks have a LOT to lose. They are projected to play each other in a rematch next week and both are very much in the B1G and National Championship races.
-
What is hard for me to reconcile is that one team could "lose" the three game series by a count of two wins and one loss. Suppose:
- Georgia beats Texas AGAIN in the SECCG, and
- Oregon beats Ohio State AGAIN in the B1GCG, and
- Texas beats Georgia in one National Semi-Final, and
- Ohio State beats Oregon in the other National Semi-Final.
In that case the Bulldawgs and Ducks would be 2-1 against the Longhorns and Buckeyes respectively but they'd have to watch on TV while Ohio State played Texas for the National Championship.
not hard for me
now if UNL was EVER in that position...... I might feel differently, but
that seems hellu unlikely
for the others,.......... play better football in the game that REALLY means something
-
I think Indiana-SMU would be a really close game. It'd be fun to watch. Maybe we'll get it in the CFP.
-
Oregon State is to Oregon what Michigan State is to Michigan, and Iowa State is to Iowa.
Maybe not quite. In the old days, when Oregon wasn't consistently good, the Civil War was probably the more important game. But since Oregon has had the Phil Knight money, Oregon wants to be Washington, and this is the bigger rivlary game. Similar for Washington: yes, they have Wazzu (like Iowa has Iowa State), but their real Pac-10 rivals were USC and Oregon.
Interesting. I was always under the impression that Oregon State and Washington State were still Oregon and Washington's largest respective rivalries up until the dissolution of the conference
-
I'm still under that impression
-
I guess it depends on whether you care about whether the rivalry is one of skill, or just naming rights. Yes, the Apple Cup and the Civil War are things in their respective home states, but the series isn't especially competitive. Conversely, you could argue that Oregon hasn't been especially competitive with Washington (although closer than Oregon State is to Oregon). Washington hasn't been that competitive with USC, either, but not many schools have been (and ND has about the same edge over USC as USC has over Washington).
I think beating each other is more important than beating their in-state "State" brethren, but mostly because Washington and Oregon fans expect to do the latter. Or maybe it's recency bias and the fact that without the Pac-10/12, those games don't exist anymore. Which is sad.
-
I honestly never even thought of Oregon-Washington as a rivalry other than two really good programs in close proximity. Like Michigan-Penn State or something
-
yup
-
The Pac-12 falling apart was obviously a game changer. Iowa St, Wash St, Ore St all used to be considered P5 schools just like their big brothers, but now their status is not quite equal.
Iowa St got a small demotion to a M2 school as a member of the Big 12. But at least the Big 12 is still considered one of the P4 conferences, which is good enough for Iowa to keep the Iowa St series going.
Ore St and Wash St are kinda in limbo because the new Pac is not quite done expanding, but the general consensus is the new Pac will be considered a G6 conference starting in 2026.
Needless to say, Washington and Oregon will need to decide at some point if its still worth it to keep the annual games with Wash St and Ore St.
-
Massey Composite Computer Rankings - 91 rankings (last week in parentheses)
- OHIO STATE (1)
- OREGON (2)
- Texas (3)
- Notre Dame (6)
- PENN STATE (8)
- Georgia (7)
- INDIANA (5)
- Miami (10)
- SMU (11)
- Alabama (4)
- Ole Miss (9)
- Tennessee (12)
- South Carolina (13)
- Clemson (14)
- Iowa State (19)
- Boise State (17)
- BYU (15)
- Texas A&M (16)
- Louisville (24)
- Kansas State (21)
- Tulane (20)
- Arizona State (22)
- Colorado (18)
- LSU (23)
- Missouri (-)
- 26. Iowa (27)
- 27. Illinois (29)
- 30. USC (30)
- 33. Michigan (40)
- 39. Minnesota (36)
- 45. Washington (44)
- 47. Nebraska (54)
- 54. Wisconsin (43)
- 61. Rutgers (57)
- 65. UCLA (61)
- 70. Michigan State (76)
- 79. Maryland (75)
- 89. Northwestern (82)
- 117. Purdue (117)
-
FWIW, I just spoke with my colleague who was born and raised in Eugene, and went to the Oregon/Ohio State game this year. Washington is their biggest rival. In his mind it isn't close. OSU is little brother. Maybe not in 1980, but in the last forty years, Oregon has ascended, OSU has not. He doesn't really care about OSU, except that it's embarassing if Oregon loses that game. Washington is the game for all the real bragging rights.
-
Nebraska loses to Iowa
Massey moves UNL up 7 spots, Iowa down 1