CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 18, 2024, 10:29:30 AM
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The most anticipated Ohio State vs Indiana game not involving hoops ever.
As I see it, the game is MUCH more important to the Hoosiers than it is to the Buckeyes. Part of that is brand but a BIG part of it is that Ohio State has played a MUCH better schedule. Even if the Buckeyes lose this, they still own a road win over #4 Penn State and their 1-point road loss to #1 Oregon isn't particularly damning.
For Indiana their home win over Washington is the ONLY game they've played all year against a team with a non-losing record and the Huskies are only 4-4. Also, Washington is undefeated at home and winless on the road so beating them outside of Seattle hasn't proven all that difficult this year.
For Indiana, obviously a win would be HUGE but even a close loss would help. As long as they "look like" they belong on the field with the Buckeyes, they should make the CFP at 11-1 but if they get smoked, I think their schedule and helmet will keep them out. Thus, the Hoosiers have to at least keep this competitive.
The history:
Indiana hasn't beaten Ohio State in a LONG time. The Hoosiers won two straight beating Earle Bruce's last tOSU team in 1987 and John Cooper's first team in 1988. They tied the Buckeyes in Bloomington a couple years later, in 1990 but since then, 0-29 by an average score of 38-15.
The Hoosiers are 12-80-5 all-time against the Buckeyes and as crazy as this sounds, that actually understates Ohio State's dominance of this series. The first six games in the series were played from 1901 through 1913 which was Ohio State's first year in the league. Those six games were five IU wins and a tie. Since then: 80-7-4 in favor of the Buckeyes.
From 1914 through last year the Hoosiers are 0.099 against the Buckeyes but in some good news, they are actually better in Columbus (6-50-3) than Bloomington (1-30-1).
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OSU is a 12.5 point favorite, at home, I'll take the Buckeyes to cover handily. 42-17.
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I think a 1-loss Hoosier team is more likely to make the playoff than a 2-loss Buckeye team
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At the final ranking, some really tough choices will have to be made. Folks will complain about it.
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well, if the SEC complains about it, there will be changes
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SHUT-UP-YOU
(https://i.imgur.com/7FLFuzc.jpeg)
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In the games I've seen, it's the Hoosier line play. They've damn near manhandled teams on both sides of the ball - except for the 2nd half vs M. Indiana has been very good - both under Wilson and Tom Allen before, but they never had the horses to go four quarters, where they would falter and fade. Doesn't seem to be that way now, I'm not sure why (coaching/talent bump). They seem to take control early, so maybe teams give up and they don't fight for all four quarters. Offense stays balanced, skill players seem to play with a lot of passion and determination.
IMO, stretch & stifle them early and keep them from getting in a rythm. The Buckeyes need to show that it's not going to be a score-for-score type matchup that goes into the fourth quarter. It's the game before M, which is hard emotionally, but setting precedence absolutely needs to happen.The Hoosiers seemingly tired late vs M in a close match up that Moore ended up dashing their chances
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I put my main comment in the weekly rankings thread.
Indiana is a much better team than I thought they were, but they are still playing the biggest of the big boys in the conference--in Columbus. This game is unlike any they have played this season. OSU has played two huge games already: at Oregon and at Penn State. Against common opponents:
both destroyed Michigan State in East Lansing; both dismantled Northwestern somewhere around Chicago, but Nebraska gave OSU a scare in Columbus, and Indiana dominated the Huskers in Lincoln. Indiana's "worst" wins were their two-score win over Maryland, and their 5-point win over Michigan. Ohio State's was the Nebraska debacle, and, of course, the loss at Oregon.
That doesn't make this task look quite so herculean for Indiana. But Indiana's best win was the two-score win over Washington, in Bloomington--a Washington team that hasn't won on the road. Ohio State's win over Penn State in Happy Valley is much more impressive, and dominating Iowa ain't bad--although Iowa doesn't appear especially good on the road.
Should a 1-loss Indiana team make the playoff? Assume they lose in Columbus, but aren't embarassed, and they beat Purdue.
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It's really tough to grasp how good Indiana is. None of their games have been really close outside of Michigan and Michigan is a pretty awful team offensively. So is Indiana's defense good enough to slow down the Buckeyes offense? Not an easy task with 2 incredible receivers and two incredible running backs. How good is Ohio State's defense? From a stat perspective pretty good, but from a sight perspective have had some weaknesses and have had the benefit of a lot of weak offenses on the schedule. Although they've shut teams down when it actually mattered as well. I think the talent level clearly favors OSU, but there's a fire with the Hoosiers and are a very well coached team. Should be an interesting game.
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Definitely worried about the OSU o-line against what has been a pretty strong defensive front. Indiana leads the league in sacks. Indiana also has the bye week and is well coached, so they should be able to scheme up some points.
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I think a 1-loss Hoosier team is more likely to make the playoff than a 2-loss Buckeye team
I disagree but, to an extent, it depends on margins.
It also depends on which games.
I'm assuming here that the Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers then lose either to Michigan or to Oregon.
IMHO, an 11-2 Ohio State with two losses to Oregon EASILY gets in over an 11-1 Indiana with a loss to Ohio State.
Lets say that Ohio State beats IU then loses to Michigan and PSU beats IU in the tiebreakers such that Ohio State finishes 10-2 with losses to Oregon and Michigan while Indiana finishes 11-1 with a loss to Ohio State.
The loss to Michigan is problematic because IU beat them but the loss to Oregon isn't because Indiana didn't play anyone that good. Indiana's best win would be . . . Washington? Ohio State's would be at Penn State. Indiana looks much better when looking at losses but Ohio State looks much better when looking at wins.
That is the situation where I think margins matter. It is close to a toss-up so if IU lost in Columbus by a small enough margin that it could plausibly be attributed to HFA then IU probably gets in over tOSU but if the Buckeyes smash the Hoosiers (lets say by the 12.5 that they are favored by or more) then I think it is harder to make a case for Indiana because their better record is pretty obviously the product of an easier schedule.
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Should a 1-loss Indiana team make the playoff? Assume they lose in Columbus, but aren't embarassed, and they beat Purdue.
This will depend on who else is vying for a spot, including Notre Dame and Army and maybe some others. Is ND in at 11-1? Are they better than Indiana?
Will there be five SEC teams included? (I doubt it.) If we have four from each major conference, and then the two P5 champions plus a G5, and then Notre Dame, the field starts to get ... done. So, say we include Ohio State as the champion, Oregon/PSU/Indiana as ALs. Some pretty decent SEC team will get left out.
Bama/Texas/Tenn/UGA/Ole Miss/A&M.
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Definitely worried about the OSU o-line against what has been a pretty strong defensive front. Indiana leads the league in sacks. Indiana also has the bye week and is well coached, so they should be able to scheme up some points.
Plus the respect/motivation factors are real. IU's staff will be telling their kids all week that they are disrespected because they are undefeated, ranked behind the Buckeyes, and a double-digit underdog.
The other side of that coin is that it can backfire. If you spend all week hearing that then go on the road and get down 10-0 early (like tOSU did at PSU), you can easily start doubting yourself and that can snowball.
I don't know what to expect. The Buckeyes started slow against an awful Northwestern team last week and of course they got down 10-0 early against Penn State. They REALLY need to avoid that here. The longer Indiana is in this, the more their confidence builds and Ohio State's doubts as well. I could see Ohio State getting up early and the wheels coming off for IU but OTOH, if this thing goes into the 4th quarter tied, I think I'd bet on IU.
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Should a 1-loss Indiana team make the playoff? Assume they lose in Columbus, but aren't embarassed, and they beat Purdue.
Given the caveats you listed, I think they are and should be in especially if Ohio State beats Michigan and wins the B1GCG. In that case, Ohio State might well be #1 in the nation so a close road loss to them shouldn't hurt IU much.
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I certainly could be wrong (which is why I don't gamble on sports) but this feels like a game where the points, even at 12.5 are nearly irrelevant. I feel like the two most likely outcomes are a blowout win by Ohio State or a close win by Indiana.
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I certainly could be wrong (which is why I don't gamble on sports) but this feels like a game where the points, even at 12.5 are nearly irrelevant. I feel like the two most likely outcomes are a blowout win by Ohio State or a close win by Indiana.
Well if you feel that way, the money line on Indiana is +360.
Meaning let's say you bet $100 on Indiana to win, and they do, you'll get $460 back (your initial bet +$360).
How much do you think that's one of the most likely outcomes? Enough to try to win 3.6:1 odds?
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This is giving me some confidence vis-a-vis the tOSU/IU game:
(https://i.imgur.com/YOBKzKy.png)
Two things to point out WRT Indiana:
- This illustrates just how weak their B1G schedule is. Two-thirds of it is the worst six teams in the league.
- Indiana's relative performance has been great against the dregs but not so good against decent opponents.
On point #2:
- Against UMD the Hoosiers were almost as good as Oregon.
- Against Northwestern the Hoosiers were almost as good as Ohio State.
- Against Michigan State the Hoosiers were better than tOSU and a LOT better than Oregon.
- Against Nebraska the Hoosiers were a LOT better than tOSU.
- Against UCLA the Hoosiers were better than Oregon and a LOT better than PSU.
But then look at the games against better opponents:
- Against Michigan the Hoosiers were nowhere close to Oregon and, in fact, they weren't even as good as Illinois and Washington.
- Against Washington the Hoosiers were nowhere close to PSU and, in fact, were not as good as Iowa.
My prediction:
Ohio State flusters and frustrates the Hoosiers early, knocks the wind out of their sails, and rolls to an easy win.
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Well if you feel that way, the money line on Indiana is +360.
Meaning let's say you bet $100 on Indiana to win, and they do, you'll get $460 back (your initial bet +$360).
How much do you think that's one of the most likely outcomes? Enough to try to win 3.6:1 odds?
No. See my post between yours and this. Analyzing IU's results on the performance table put a different perspective on it for me and I don't think they can keep up with Ohio State.
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No. See my post between yours and this. Analyzing IU's results on the performance table put a different perspective on it for me and I don't think they can keep up with Ohio State.
Right. So, then, take Ohio State and the points. If you don't think Indiana can keep it close, even giving 12.5 shouldn't bother you...
I know you say you don't bet on sports, and obviously I'm not telling you that you should. And of course as an OSU fan, I also think your own fandom can cloud judgment.
But if you WERE to bet on it, which way would you lean? OSU -110 giving 12.5 points, or Indiana +360 straight up? Do you think either bet is positive EV?
(Personally, if I bet on sports, I'd be taking OSU -110 giving 12.5 points. I think the most likely outcome is an OSU blowout. But my anti-fandom with IU could be clouding my judgment.)
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I disagree but, to an extent, it depends on margins.
It also depends on which games.
I was merely thinking about this game, not after all the games have been played
a 1-loss Hoosier team with that loss being to OSU in the Shoe is pretty solid
better than ND's loss?
better than a bunch of 2-loss SEC teams?
a 2-loss OSU with losses to undefeated Indiana and Oregon also looks solid, but... 2 losses
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I'd take the Hoosiers and the 12.5
I can easily see the Hoosiers playing well enough to keep it within 12
of course this Husker is influenced by those two matchups
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I'd take the Hoosiers and the 12.5
I can easily see the Hoosiers playing well enough to keep it within 12
of course this Husker is influenced by those two matchups
The problem with that is that the Nebraska game is an outlier for BOTH teams.
For IU:
- Beat UCLA by 29
- Beat MSU by 37
- Beat NU by 17
Nebraska should be in there somewhere. Probably between UCLA and MSU so a 29-37 point win. Instead it was 49.
For tOSU:
- Beat Iowa by 28.
- Beat MSU by 31.
- Beat NU by 24.
Nebraska should be in there somewhere. Probably about a 28-31 point win. Instead it was 4.
Looking at the table, their games against Nebraska appear to be Indiana's best and Ohio State's worst relatively.
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Right. So, then, take Ohio State and the points. If you don't think Indiana can keep it close, even giving 12.5 shouldn't bother you...
I know you say you don't bet on sports, and obviously I'm not telling you that you should. And of course as an OSU fan, I also think your own fandom can cloud judgment.
But if you WERE to bet on it, which way would you lean? OSU -110 giving 12.5 points, or Indiana +360 straight up? Do you think either bet is positive EV?
(Personally, if I bet on sports, I'd be taking OSU -110 giving 12.5 points. I think the most likely outcome is an OSU blowout. But my anti-fandom with IU could be clouding my judgment.)
As you implied, even if I did bet on sports, I'd avoid betting on games involving my team or the evil heathen cheaters because my fandom/anti-fandom clouds my judgement.
Setting that aside, if I had to bet on this game I'd take tOSU and give the points.
The money-line bet on Ohio State is just unappealing because you get back so little.
I *THINK* that the most likely outcome is for Ohio State to win by more than 12.5.
If I were a serious gambler I *might* hedge it with a bet on the IU moneyline.
Ie, if I bet $100 on tOSU -12.5 and $30 on Indiana at the +360. That way the results for me would be:
- Ohio State wins by 13 or more: I win $100 on the tOSU bet and lose $30 on the IU bet, I'm up $70.
- Ohio State wins by 0-12: This one REALLY sucks for me, I lose both and am out $140.
- Indiana wins: I'm out $2. I lose the tOSU bet and have to pay $110 but I win the IU bet and get $108.
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Indiana has had a weak schedule
aside from this stretch, so has Ohio St.
(https://i.imgur.com/k8DNVLW.png)
vs teams with a pulse, OSU isn't winning by 2 or 3 TDs
Indiana is better than Northwestern and Purdue
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The most anticipated Ohio State vs Indiana game not involving hoops ever.
As I see it, the game is MUCH more important to the Hoosiers than it is to the Buckeyes. Part of that is brand but a BIG part of it is that Ohio State has played a MUCH better schedule. Even if the Buckeyes lose this, they still own a road win over #4 Penn State and their 1-point road loss to #1 Oregon isn't particularly damning.
For Indiana their home win over Washington is the ONLY game they've played all year against a team with a non-losing record and the Huskies are only 4-4. Also, Washington is undefeated at home and winless on the road so beating them outside of Seattle hasn't proven all that difficult this year.
For Indiana, obviously a win would be HUGE but even a close loss would help. As long as they "look like" they belong on the field with the Buckeyes, they should make the CFP at 11-1 but if they get smoked, I think their schedule and helmet will keep them out. Thus, the Hoosiers have to at least keep this competitive.
The history:
Indiana hasn't beaten Ohio State in a LONG time. The Hoosiers won two straight beating Earle Bruce's last tOSU team in 1987 and John Cooper's first team in 1988. They tied the Buckeyes in Bloomington a couple years later, in 1990 but since then, 0-29 by an average score of 38-15.
The Hoosiers are 12-80-5 all-time against the Buckeyes and as crazy as this sounds, that actually understates Ohio State's dominance of this series. The first six games in the series were played from 1901 through 1913 which was Ohio State's first year in the league. Those six games were five IU wins and a tie. Since then: 80-7-4 in favor of the Buckeyes.
From 1914 through last year the Hoosiers are 0.099 against the Buckeyes but in some good news, they are actually better in Columbus (6-50-3) than Bloomington (1-30-1).
Just a few weeks ago you claimed that Indiana would get in at 11-1 with a blowout loss to the Buckeyes and a one point win over everyone else.
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Just a few weeks ago you claimed that Indiana would get in at 11-1 with a blowout loss to the Buckeyes and a one point win over everyone else.
I wasn't expecting the SEC to produce a half dozen 2-loss teams. Now I am.
I think on both fronts I failed to fully appreciate how goofy league schedules are in these new mega-leagues.
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As you implied, even if I did bet on sports, I'd avoid betting on games involving my team or the evil heathen cheaters because my fandom/anti-fandom clouds my judgement.
Setting that aside, if I had to bet on this game I'd take tOSU and give the points.
The money-line bet on Ohio State is just unappealing because you get back so little.
I *THINK* that the most likely outcome is for Ohio State to win by more than 12.5.
If I were a serious gambler I *might* hedge it with a bet on the IU moneyline.
Ie, if I bet $100 on tOSU -12.5 and $30 on Indiana at the +360. That way the results for me would be:
- Ohio State wins by 13 or more: I win $100 on the tOSU bet and lose $30 on the IU bet, I'm up $70.
- Ohio State wins by 0-12: This one REALLY sucks for me, I lose both and am out $140.
- Indiana wins: I'm out $2. I lose the tOSU bet and have to pay $110 but I win the IU bet and get $108.
Got it. Makes sense.
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They announced the remaining kickoffs for next week.
In case anyone thinks prime time means big game anymore...
OSU will have played 7 noon games, and 2 prime time games (against WMU and MSU)
MSU will have played 0 noon games, and 7 prime time games
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When Indiana loses this Saturday will they stay in the top 122?
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I'd probably take the points. The most OSU has scored against a team with a pulse was 38 against MSU. They gave up 32 to Oregon. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Indiana score in the 20s. So even if OSU plays well, they are pretty close to the spread.
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No idea. Not much of a betting fan, but definitely see a tight one.
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The history:
Indiana hasn't beaten Ohio State in a LONG time. The Hoosiers won two straight beating Earle Bruce's last tOSU team in 1987 and John Cooper's first team in 1988. They tied the Buckeyes in Bloomington a couple years later, in 1990 but since then, 0-29 by an average score of 38-15.
Bill Mallory was the Hoosier Head Coach then and I was hoping tOSU would tap him to follow Earl.Very unheralded IMO and if he landed at a blue blood or a program with a pulse he could have made some in roads. He was an assistant on Hayes's 1968 NC Buckeye Team and took Miami(OH) to an 11-0 season and winning a bowl. Even though he was already 60 at the time when Earl got canned it wasn't considered an impediment back then. Just ask Bear,Saban,Cignetti or even Booger is in that neighbor hood
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They announced the remaining kickoffs for next week.
In case anyone thinks prime time means big game anymore...
OSU will have played 7 noon games, and 2 prime time games (against WMU and MSU)
MSU will have played 0 noon games, and 7 prime time games
I think the Ohio St-Oregon game was also in prime time. I know that does not change your point, which is still valid.
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just shows the Big can't compete with the SEC for ratings head to head
So, Big Noon
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Hasn't Michigan-Ohio State always been an early game, and always killed in the ratings?
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I'd take the Hoosiers and the 12.5
I can easily see the Hoosiers playing well enough to keep it within 12
of course this Husker is influenced by those two matchups
I agree with this. I am not saying Indiana is certain to win, but I feel the teams are much closer to being equal than the 12.5 pointspread.
If they played 10 times, OSU might win 7 out of 10. With OSU getting 2 blowout wins, OSU with 5 close wins, Ind with 2 close wins and Ind 1 blowout win.
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Hasn't Michigan-Ohio State always been an early game, and always killed in the ratings?
yes, the SEC is soft.
Don't like to get out of bed and start drinking too early
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Well I can't speak for the SEC, but at Texas, as you might remember, our tailgate started at 7 AM regardless of kickoff time.
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you Tito soaked idgits do have that going for you - gonna have to wake those gumps up and show 'em a new way
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Hasn't Michigan-Ohio State always been an early game, and always killed in the ratings?
Yes, it's only been NOT an 11:00 AM game one time. IIRC it was 2006, when both were Top 3 or 4.
I think some of the reason is that local authorities want it for crowd control purposes.
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7 AM is not too early to start drinking for The Game.
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Well I can't speak for the SEC, but at Texas, as you might remember, our tailgate started at 7 AM regardless of kickoff time.
yup, Texas is not really a good fit in the soft SEC but, $$$$
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Our tailgate used to start at 5AM, before we started to reserve our own parking lot for the season. Then we moved it to 7AM.
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hah, that's why when the Sharkwater Party got it's start, I'd take the camper down Friday afternoon to squat on the prime location
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yup, Texas is not really a good fit in the soft SEC but, $$$$
Is that why UNL got away from the hard BIG SWC
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Ohio State 28, Indiana 23
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Is that why UNL got away from the hard BIG SWC
UNL helped toughen them up
gave them a taste of cold weather games
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Our tailgate used to start at 5AM, before we started to reserve our own parking lot for the season. Then we moved it to 7AM.
Well yeah. To reserve the lot, we typically had a "line-sitter" in place by Friday at noon.
For the 2006 Ohio State game, our line-sitter got there on Tuesday night, and about 6 of us worked in shifts to relieve him, bring food, etc. It was crazy.
Nowadays all parking spots are reserved ahead of time and distributed by lottery. But after a lot of construction turning surface lots into parking garages and other buildings, there are so few surface spots that downtown tailgating is pretty much over. When we lost our long-held spot due to not winning the lottery one year, that's when we killed the tailgate.
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When I worked for OSU, I'd load up Thursday night. Park in my tailgate spot Friday morning, go to work, and have someone take me home that night to reserve our Tailgate spot.
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almost cheaper to go to the bar
helluva lot easier
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almost cheaper to go to the bar
helluva lot easier
Almost. I was a professional Tailgater and got paid to host tailgates.
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I turned down many handfuls of cash
that wasn't the reason for the party
I only had one per season - my treat
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I turned down many handfuls of cash
that wasn't the reason for the party
I only had one per season - my treat
We raised over $100,000 for our charities over the years. Still proud of that work, I wish we could do more of it.
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you can
git'r done
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It was a lot of work and $$$ to put a tailgate together.
We got a hotel Friday and Saturday on top of it, plus a 250 mile round trip.
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the best reason to sleep in the camper
$700+ hotel bill
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Oh crap Word is Ohio Star’s all everything Center, Seth McLaughlin, tore his Achilles in practice.
Indiana is my pick now. Bummer to say the least.
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Oh crap Word is Ohio Star’s all everything Center, Seth McLaughlin, tore his Achilles in practice.
Indiana is my pick now. Bummer to say the least.
(https://media.tenor.com/Sg3s3AGAM6MAAAAM/kill-me.gif)
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Oh crap Word is Ohio Star’s all everything Center, Seth McLaughlin, tore his Achilles in practice.
Two best O-Lineman done for the season then. Every year it's something - Where's that cyanide capsule?
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could be much worse
Could be a Husker fan
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Where's that cyanide capsule?
Must be rough.
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Must be rough.
For sure.
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Seth McLaughlin injury: Ohio State loses star center to torn Achilles during critical stretch run, per report - CBSSports.com (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/seth-mclaughlin-injury-ohio-state-loses-star-center-to-torn-achilles-during-critical-stretch-run-per-report/)
Ohio State vs. Indiana odds, spread, line: 2024 college football picks, Week 13 predictions from proven model - CBSSports.com (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ohio-state-vs-indiana-odds-spread-line-2024-college-football-picks-week-13-predictions-from-proven-model/)
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could be much worse
Could be a Husker fan
Browns Fan
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Oh crap Word is Ohio Star’s all everything Center, Seth McLaughlin, tore his Achilles in practice.
Indiana is my pick now. Bummer to say the least.
Michigan's OL will still be shittier.
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Michigan's OL will still be shittier.
Contrary to what Fro thinks- Indiana has one of the best D-lines OSU has faced, close to Penn States. Of course, the Michigan D-line is the best they will see all year, with 2 1st rounders.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2024/11/150807/ohio-state-center-seth-mclaughlin-suffers-achilles-injury
The injury forces Ohio State to replace its starting center going into a defining stretch of its season that begins Saturday with a top-five matchup against Indiana. McLaughlin’s injury is a massive loss for the Buckeyes as his stabilizing presence in the middle of the offensive line has been seen as one of the biggest factors in Ohio State’s improvement in the trenches this season. The Alabama transfer earned midseason All-American honors from several media outlets and started all of the Buckeyes’ first 10 games this season at center.
He’s the second starter on Ohio State’s offensive line to be sidelined by a major injury this season. Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons went down with a season-ending knee injury in the Buckeyes’ sixth game of the year vs. Oregon.
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Indiana may have 20 first round picks off its DL.
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Huskers lost top 2 Left tackles and Left Guard early on
no one brings it up any longer
no cyanide
We soldier on
and miss another bowl with 5 wins
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Yes. What else can you do. Next man up.
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Huskers lost top 2 Left tackles and Left Guard early on
no one brings it up any longer
no cyanide
We soldier on
OK Bud Fat then
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and plenty of it!!!
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https://twitter.com/woodyVSworld/status/1859052690447495271?t=cKcyuIZBdS41D3hMX99epg&s=19
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With losing the NFL-caliber Center OSU had, this game has got a lot more interesting to me. I really felt OSU was gonna put IU in their place, but not sure with a hobbled line they will be able to assert their will as consistently. This may be a really close game. I think I now would bet the under.
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Ohio State is a 13.5 point favorite against Indiana, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.
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https://twitter.com/woodyVSworld/status/1859052690447495271?t=cKcyuIZBdS41D3hMX99epg&s=19
FIFY
(https://i.imgur.com/oL4tYrc.png)
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With losing the NFL-caliber Center OSU had, this game has got a lot more interesting to me. I really felt OSU was gonna put IU in their place, but not sure with a hobbled line they will be able to assert their will as consistently. This may be a really close game. I think I now would bet the under.
Not the Game itself just the realistic hope of a CFB NC
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With losing the NFL-caliber Center OSU had, this game has got a lot more interesting to me. I really felt OSU was gonna put IU in their place, but not sure with a hobbled line they will be able to assert their will as consistently. This may be a really close game. I think I now would bet the under.
This game was going to be close BEFORE this loss of McLaughlin. Indiana leads the nation in TFL. They are better than people are giving credit for.
I am actually picking Indiana now. Hope to be wrong.
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well, you're takin the 13 points
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well, you're takin the 13 points
In our pick-em game. No points.
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2nd string center must be terrible
worth 14 or more points
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2nd string center must be terrible
worth 14 or more points
2nd string Center is 1st string Left Guard. So OSU will have 2 new pieces on an already weak line (relative to OSU, their O-line is the weakest unit) that had a different season injury vs. Oregon.
So, Yah. It could be a really big deal.
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How has Hintzman looked?
It was a blow to UW to lose an in-state kid they really wanted.
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In our pick-em game. No points.
Honest is pessimistic on the Buckeyes.
Also, water is wet.
In all seriousness though:
2nd string Center is 1st string Left Guard. So OSU will have 2 new pieces on an already weak line (relative to OSU, their O-line is the weakest unit) that had a different season injury vs. Oregon.
So, Yah. It could be a really big deal.
This I agree with. The line is already hobbled and now breaking in new guys at two more positions.
I frankly don't think it will matter against Indiana but:
Not the Game itself just the realistic hope of a CFB NC
This is my bigger concern.
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This game was going to be close BEFORE this loss of McLaughlin. Indiana leads the nation in TFL. They are better than people are giving credit for.
I am actually picking Indiana now. Hope to be wrong.
Don't get me wrong, this is the best IU team they have ever fielded. They used the portal to bring in 31 new players including 16 starters. They have dominated their competition, they are really, really good.
But ... Talent-Wise, I think OSU is significantly more talented. The game is in Ohio Stadium. Until the O-line injury, all the indicators, including Vegas, were speaking to a 2-score OSU win.
I'm unsure why the line didn't move after the injury was announced. But I am a lot more concerned about OSU's performance against IMHO the 4th best team in the conference.
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This game was going to be close BEFORE this loss of McLaughlin. Indiana leads the nation in TFL. They are better than people are giving credit for.
I am actually picking Indiana now. Hope to be wrong.
Way back in the day, i was always drawn to your takes because our younger years all over us had more confidence and chest beating takes on our own teams, yet you were a little more in the center. Nowadays, your takes make me laugh because you are far too pessimistic with your Buckeyes. It's probably a smart mindset because they surprise you with positive outcomes more often, but so often I chuckle how down you are on a really good team.
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Way back in the day, i was always drawn to your takes because our younger years all over us had more confidence and chest beating takes on our own teams, yet you were a little more in the center. Nowadays, your takes make me laugh because you are far too pessimistic with your Buckeyes. It's probably a smart mindset because they surprise you with positive outcomes more often, but so often I chuckle how down you are on a really good team.
Not down on them. I think they are a really good team. Can probably hang with any team.
But as you pointed out in a different post- their defense- statistically is fantastic. #2 in stop rate.
They can be unimpressive at times- bending but not breaking. Nowhere did that hurt them more than Oregon. Indiana runs a very similar offense. Super accurate QB, very solid group. Of WRs who are disciplined in their routes.
On the other side of the ball, there are reasons why Indiana leads the nation in both sacks and TFLs. They have played, and done well against offensive lines better than the patchwork- inexperienced one OSU will show them. The guy who was the glue, on making the calls and directing traffic is a huge loss.
Put that all together and this becomes a game of “ third downs.” Who can convert them better, and who can get their defense off the field better.
I just think there is a better than 50/50 chance that will be the Hoosiers. Don’t fell strongly- just a best guess.
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Not down on them. I think they are a really good team. Can probably hang with any team.
But as you pointed out in a different post- their defense- statistically is fantastic. #2 in stop rate.
They can be unimpressive at times- bending but not breaking. Nowhere did that hurt them more than Oregon. Indiana runs a very similar offense. Super accurate QB, very solid group. Of WRs who are disciplined in their routes.
On the other side of the ball, there are reasons why Indiana leads the nation in both sacks and TFLs. They have played, and done well against offensive lines better than the patchwork- inexperienced one OSU will show them. The guy who was the glue, on making the calls and directing traffic is a huge loss.
Put that all together and this becomes a game of “ third downs.” Who can convert them better, and who can get their defense off the field better.
I just think there is a better than 50/50 chance that will be the Hoosiers. Don’t fell strongly- just a best guess.
Well find out Saturday but I don't think you truly appreciate how ridiculously pathetic Indiana's schedule has been. Here is their column from the schedule/performance chart that I keep:
(https://i.imgur.com/WxTSvyd.png)
Note that five of their seven league games were against five of the worst seven teams in the league:
- UWash is 4-4
- Michigan is 3-4
- UCLA is 3-5
- UNL is 2-5
- MSU is 2-5
- NU is 2-5
- UMD is 1-6
The only two teams Indiana has played that are better than 3-5 are Michigan and Washington and IU got BOTH of them at home. It is mind boggling that they managed to get a league schedule this easy.
For comparison, Ohio State has a four TD win over a team that is 4-3, a road win over a team that is 6-1, and a VERY close loss to a team that is 8-0.
Over in the CG race thread I noted the league records of both teams' league opponents:
- .531 Ohio State's are 34-30
- .354 Indiana's are 23-42
This actually understates how bad IU's opponents have been because it includes teams not yet played (tOSU and PU for IU, IU and M for tOSU). The cumulative league records of the seven league teams played so far are:
- .480 Ohio State 24-26
- .333 Indiana 17-34
Indiana's league opponents thus far are pathetic and on top of that they get the best two at home.
Indiana might be as great as some of you seem to think but they haven't done anything to prove it yet. In their defense, they don't make the league schedules so it isn't like they chose this and their team has won each week against the teams on the opposite sideline, it isn't their fault but the reality is that those teams on the opposite sidelines have been almost comically weak.
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this is their first chance to prove it
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Ohio State by a lot.
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Aside from the obvious Nebraska differential, how have they fared against common opponents?
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Aside from the obvious Nebraska differential, how have they fared against common opponents?
Hoosiers have done better in score, yards and turnover margin.
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Not down on them. I think they are a really good team. Can probably hang with any team.
But as you pointed out in a different post- their defense- statistically is fantastic. #2 in stop rate.
They can be unimpressive at times- bending but not breaking. Nowhere did that hurt them more than Oregon. Indiana runs a very similar offense. Super accurate QB, very solid group. Of WRs who are disciplined in their routes.
On the other side of the ball, there are reasons why Indiana leads the nation in both sacks and TFLs. They have played, and done well against offensive lines better than the patchwork- inexperienced one OSU will show them. The guy who was the glue, on making the calls and directing traffic is a huge loss.
Put that all together and this becomes a game of “ third downs.” Who can convert them better, and who can get their defense off the field better.
I just think there is a better than 50/50 chance that will be the Hoosiers. Don’t fell strongly- just a best guess.
As MB pointed out, Indiana has faced this caliber of talent yet so I'm not sure if it carries through to this weekend. I know they will not face another WR core anything near what they will face this weekend so it will certainly be a true test. Indiana has actually been an excited team to follow this year for a lot of reasons, most specifically because it's been a while since they have been even remotely competitive and I always enjoy an underdog story. I want this to be a great game, but i think the talent gap is pretty significant. The only thing that could drastically change the outcome is if OSU's O-line truly struggles.. Then i think it's a coin flip.
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The weak schedule would mean more to me if they hadn't been cruising in most of those wins. The Michigan win is the most interesting, but Michigan is not a bad team, and is always talented. The UCLA, Nebraska, and Michigan State games were all pretty impressive. A two touchdown win over Washington is nothing to sneeze at. Northwestern and Maryland not so much, but still easy wins.
If they had been eeking these out, I would think they were overrated and lucky. They are definitely lucky, but I'm not sure they are overrated.
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Aside from the obvious Nebraska differential, how have they fared against common opponents?
Here are the two columns from my table:
(https://i.imgur.com/tYRar1v.png)
So, sequentially:
Vs Nebraska: IU was 45 points better.
Vs MSU: IU was 6 points better.
Vs NU: tOSU was 7 points better.
The Nebraska comparison is the one that obviously looks bad for Ohio State. I'll come back to that. The difference vs MSU is irrelevant to me. Both teams won by a LOT. If you want to get into specifics, I honestly think that tOSU's win over MSU was more impressive. I judge these things more based on time than final margin. What I mean is "at what point in the game was it effectively over?":
- Ohio State scored a TD just before halftime to take a 24-7 lead.
- IU didn't put MSU away until scoring a TD with 11:39 to go in the 3rd quarter to make it 30-10.
Indiana scored 26 second half points against MSU while Ohio State only scored 14. Part of the reason, I would argue, is that IU needed to, tOSU didn't. Ohio State went into halftime up 24-7 and scored two second half TD's to end up winning 38-7. Indiana went into halftime up 11 at 21-10, got a safety early in the third quarter to make it 23-10 (still a two-score game) and expanded their lead to 20 (three scores) later.
Not a big difference, but I think Ohio State effectively ended MSU's chances about six minutes sooner.
Ohio State's win over Northwestern was, IMHO, MUCH more impressive. Against the Wildcats:
Ohio State gave up an early TD then rattled off 31 unanswered points to win 31-7. The Buckeyes led by two scores (21-7) at the half and pushed it to three scores (28-7) early in the third quarter then kicked a FG late in the third to make it 31-7.
Indiana had a hard-fought back-and-forth game in which they led 17-10 at the half and 24-17 at the end of the third quarter. Northwestern pulled within three points midway through the fourth quarter (recall that tOSU led by 24 at that point in the game) and IU pulled away with two late TD's to win by 17.
I rate it as:
- vs Nebraska, IU was VASTLY more impressive.
- vs MSU, tOSU was somewhat more impressive.
- vs NU, tOSU was substantially more impressive.
Back to the Nebraska game, as promised:
The problem with reading too much into it is that Nebraska is CLEARLY IU's most and tOSU's least impressive performance so far this year.
Refer to the table above: Iowa is a MUCH better team than Nebraska, Ohio State beat them by 31. MSU and NU are comparable to Nebraska, Ohio State beat them by 31 and 24 respectively. The Buckeyes should have smashed the Cornhuskers and just . . . didn't.
Indiana beat MSU and NU by 37 and 17 respectively. Against teams definitively better than UNL, the Hoosiers beat UWash by 14 and Mich by 5. So they should have beaten UNL by something like 25 and they whipped them by damn near 50.
The problem is that if you judge a team by their best game, we are all National Champions. If you judge teams by their worst game well Bama lost to Vandy and Texas looked like crap against Georgia.
What makes me think that Ohio State will run away with this is that the one-and-only time that Indiana faced high-end talent they barely escaped the Wolverines at home and despite the fact that Michigan is a one-dimensional cluster that can't score.
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Refer to the table above: Iowa is a MUCH better team than Nebraska, Ohio State beat them by 31. MSU and NU are comparable to Nebraska, Ohio State beat them by 31 and 24 respectively. The Buckeyes should have smashed the Cornhuskers and just . . . didn't.
now wait a golderned minute........ Black Friday is coming
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Indiana has actually been an excited team to follow this year for a lot of reasons,if OSU's O-line truly struggles. Then i think it's a coin flip.
Coin flip it is,this line was decent starting the season but losing the two best starters is going to be problematic
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now wait a golderned minute........ Black Friday is coming
FARMAGEDDON
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Nebraska had 5 turnovers at IU. Five.
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it was weird how the ball bounced in that one
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Nebraska had 5 turnovers at IU. Five.
This is just one of the reasons that it is dangerous to read too much into one game. Weird stuff happens.
Does Nebraska turn the ball over FIVE times if the two teams play again? Maybe if you play the two games over again Nebraska hangs onto the ball against Indiana and has butterfingers against Ohio State.
I'm not saying the game doesn't count, it does. I'm just saying that reading too much into one result is not a good idea.
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interesting to see the line shift on this one a bit last night.. was OSU -13.5 and opened this morning at -10...
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interesting to see the line shift on this one a bit last night.. was OSU -13.5 and opened this morning at -10...
It seems delayed but I would guess that has to do with the Oline issues at tOSU.
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It seems delayed but I would guess that has to do with the Oline issues at tOSU.
I'm hearing chatter that IU leaked they weren't going to punt vs. OSU causing a lot of sharps to change how they were betting. (Thus driving the spread down 4 points.)
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not punting could result in tOSU scoring more points
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I'm hearing chatter that IU leaked they weren't going to punt vs. OSU causing a lot of sharps to change how they were betting. (Thus driving the spread down 4 points.)
I'm not really a gambling guy, but don't you think that would have moved the over/under a bit as well. A buddy of mine text me the lines earlier this week and over/under was 52.5.. When i go to espn now it's still the same.. A team not punting would likely lead to more points no? Again, I could be blatantly wrong in that thinking and data could say the opposite.
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I'll be pulling for the Hoosiers, naturally, but they're gonna get mauled.
Indiana 13
Ohio State 31
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Every rational bone in my body tells me OSU wins this one, but I like a world in which Indiana wins it so much better. So I'm revisiting what I stole for the weekly rankings thread:
Great moments are born from great opportunity. And that's what you have on Saturday, boys. That's what you've earned here: one game... Saturday, you are the greatest college football team in the land. You were born to be football players. And you were meant to be in the Shoe on Saturday. This is your time. Their time--is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearing about what a great football team the Buckeyes have. Screw 'em. This is your time. Now go out there and take it!
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I'll be pulling for the Hoosiers, naturally, but they're gonna get mauled.
Indiana 13
Ohio State 31
OSU fans will be lonely tomorrow. The rest of the world is pulling for the Hoosiers. I get it.
I see a 27-24 type game.
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Olympics and Al Michael. Maybe the greatest call in sports history.
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Every rational bone in my body tells me OSU wins this one, but I like a world in which Indiana wins it so much better. So I'm revisiting what I stole for the weekly rankings thread:
Great moments are born from great opportunity. And that's what you have on Saturday, boys. That's what you've earned here: one game... Saturday, you are the greatest college football team in the land. You were born to be football players. And you were meant to be in the Shoe on Saturday. This is your time. Their time--is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearing about what a great football team the Buckeyes have. Screw 'em. This is your time. Now go out there and take it!
Love it. I could listen to the movie version of that speech over and over. Was lucky enough to visit the Herb Brooks Arena in Lake Placid. Just an overwhelming feeling standing in that place. Lucky enough to have a signed Eruzione and Jimmy Craig jerseys.
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Every rational bone in my body tells me OSU wins this one, but I like a world in which Indiana wins it so much better.
Plus, that would make it THAT much more fun if then Purdue turns around and upsets them.
I'd celebrate that. :singing:
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I thought I remembered from the HBO documentary that Brooks also said something about "they are just here to buy blue jeans..."
In this context, "They are just here to accept their NIL payments..."