CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 18, 2024, 10:02:08 AM
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I covered the B1G separately. The B1G and the SEC are more-or-less guaranteed to get the top two seeds in the CFP so I'll start here with the SEC, the contenders:
5-1 Texas (lost to UGA):
- vs 1-6 Kentucky this week
- at 5-1 aTm next week
5-1 aTm (lost to USCe):
- at 1-5 Auburn this week
- vs 5-1 Texas next week
6-2 Georgia (done with SEC play) (lost to Bama and OleMiss):
- vs UMASS this week
- vs GaTech next week
5-2 Tennessee (lost to Arky and UGA):
- vs UTEP this week
- at 3-3 Vandy next week
4-2 Alabama (lost to Vandy and TN):
- at 1-5 Oklahoma this week
- vs 1-5 Auburn next week
4-2 Ole Miss (lost to KY and LSU):
- at 3-4 Florida this week
- vs 0-6 MissSt next week
The rest of the league have at least three losses and are thus eliminated because:
- Georgia is done at 6-2, and
- The Texas/aTm winner can finish no worse than 6-2
I'm getting tiebreakers here from an article that the Worldwide Leader did on tiebreakers (https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/42082434/what-fbs-college-football-conference-tiebreaker-rules) for the various conferences. They seem to have gotten the B1G tiebreakers right so I'm just assuming that they got the rest of them right as well. If I am missing something that one of our SEC posters ( @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) , @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) , @jgvol (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1567) , @rolltidefan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=12) , etc) has any corrections or input, please provide it.
First things first, there WILL BE a 2-loss team in the SECCG because there are only two 1-loss teams left and they play each other on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
Texas and aTm should win their games this weekend (vs Kentucky and at Auburn respectively). Assuming that they do, the winner of the Texas/aTm game is in as the #1 seed as the only 7-1 team. The loser drops into a tie with Georgia and any of the rest of the two-loss teams that win out. None of them play each other so that could be just Georgia or all four (five including the TX/aTm loser) or anything in between.
In a two-team tie the first tiebreaker is H2H so, for example, if Texas were to lose to aTm and finish tied with ONLY Georgia, the Dawgs would go because they beat the Longhorns.
The next tiebreaker is winning percentage against common SEC opponents which is all over the map depending on which two teams we are talking about.
Next, similar to the B1G, is record against the best common SEC opponent, then the next, etc.
Then, similar to the B1G again, is SoS defined as combined conference win % of conference opponents. I have no idea how that shakes out and I'm not going to go figure it out but it is probably posted somewhere, maybe on an SEC board?
The penultimate two-team tiebreaker is relative scoring margin against all conference opponents. But it says "from SportSource Analytics" so I don't *THINK* this is simply Points For minus Points Against. I *THINK* that "relative" indicates that you get more credit for playing a better schedule. I'm not sure how this works exactly.
The final two-team tiebreaker is "random draw".
In the (VERY likely) event of a tie involving three or more teams the tiebreakers are:
- H2H but only if all tied teams are common opponents (they aren't) or if one defeated each of the others. Up to here, I think this is identical to the B1G rule. Then the SEC adds a caveat that if one of the tied teams lost to all of the others, that team is eliminated.
- Record against all common conference opponents.
- Record against best SEC opponent, then next, etc.
- SoS, same as above, record of SEC opponents.
- Higher relative scoring margin against all conference opponents (from SportSource Analytics).
- Random Draw
There is a LOT to unpack there so I honestly have no idea how it will shake out.
ACC:
The ACC is considerably simpler than the SEC because there are only three contenders. Clemson is 7-1 and done with ACC play. SMU is 6-0 and Miami is 5-1. Since SMU can do no worse than 6-2 and Clemson is 7-1, the rest of the league is eliminated because they all have 3+ losses. So, the contenders:
6-0 SMU:
- at 3-3 Virginia this weekend
- vs 1-5 California next weekend
7-1 Clemson (done with ACC Play) (lost to Louisville):
- vs The Citadel this weekend
- vs USCe next weeend
5-1 Miami (lost to GaTech):
- vs 2-4 Wake this weekend
- at 4-3 Cuse next weekend
SMU should win out and if they do then their CG opponent will be either Clemson or Miami. Miami would win a two-team tie with Clemson because Miami beat Louisville and Clemson didn't play GaTech (it is record against common opponents). Ie, if all three win out, the ACCCG is SMU vs Miami. I think that Clemson would also lose a two-way tie with SMU (because they beat Louisville as well) so basically Clemson needs either:
- Miami to lose once, or
- SMU to lose twice.
B12:
This one might be even messier than the SEC. BYU and Colorado are both 6-1 but the B12 plays nine league games so both could theoretically finish 6-3. Consequently, those two plus the two-loss teams (ASU and ISU) plus the three-loss teams (Baylor, KSU, TCU, TxTech, WVU) are all mathematically in the race.
As a practical matter and to keep this from being an even longer post, I don't think that a 3-loss team is going to make the B12CG so it is between:
6-1 BYU:
- at 5-2 ASU this weekend
- vs 3-4 Houston next weekend
6-1 Colorado:
- at 3-4 Kansas this weekend
- vs 0-7 OkSU next weekend
5-2 ASU (where is SDF?):
- vs 6-1 BYU this weekend
- at 2-5 Zona next weekend
5-2 Iowa State:
- at 1-6 Utah this weekend
- vs 4-3 KSU next weekend
BYU and Colorado obviously control their own destiny but if my understanding of the tiebreakers is correct, ASU does as well. It looks like ISU needs help and the others are practically though not mathematically eliminated.
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The SEC CG is probably going to be Texas - Alabama. This assumes a lot of things of course.
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I covered the B1G separately. The B1G and the SEC are more-or-less guaranteed to get the top two seeds in the CFP so I'll start here with the SEC, the contenders...
...There is a LOT to unpack there so I honestly have no idea how it will shake out.
Horns are gonna win this weekend and then beat the goose-stepping sheet-humpers in Collie Station, so your 2nd-place analysis can start there. ;)
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The SEC CG is probably going to be Texas - Alabama. This assumes a lot of things of course.
Man that would be spicy indeed. Sark is 0-fer against DeBoer in the post-season.
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The SEC CG is probably going to be Texas - Alabama. This assumes a lot of things of course.
someone on reddit made a site that lets you input results for remaining games, and it gives seccg participants based on results.
http://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb
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someone on reddit made a site that lets you input results for remaining games, and it gives seccg participants based on results.
http://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb
Would you care to provide something of an "executive summary"?
I've heard from @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) but also elsewhere that apparently Bama has a pretty favorable tiebreaker situation but I haven't looked into it enough to know if that is true and why.
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Conference opponents winning pct.
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Found the tiebreaker @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547)
(https://i.imgur.com/XmF5vGm.jpeg)
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I figure it best to let it sort itself out rather than delve deeply into the rules. There is something about conference winning percentage at about the third tier that gives Bama an edge apparently.
I'm hearing from Josh Pate (who isn't a terrible mediot in my view) that losing the CG "should not" knock one out of the playoff. His view is IF that happens obviously, the SEC/B1G will blow this thing up, which is what they want anyway, he says. He has stated for years that the ultimate goal is some mega-thing that leaves out the weaker teams without much support. I catch him on you tube at night fairly often to see his PoV. It usually seems pretty logical to me.
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The SEC went bonkers last night, UGA is in the CG against the Texas-A&M winner at A&M. UGA could lose next week to Tech, win the CG, be 10-3 and get a bye.
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Texas was demolished by Georgia, its only game against a team with seven or more wins this year.
Ole Miss beat Georgia, but has lost to Kentucky (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/96/kentucky-wildcats) and Florida.
Alabama beat Georgia, but has lost to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.
Tennessee beat Alabama, but lost to Arkansas (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/8/arkansas-razorbacks).
A&M beat Missouri (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/142/missouri-tigers) and LSU (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/99/lsu-tigers), both ranked in the top 10 at the time, but lost to Auburn.
South Carolina (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2579/south-carolina-gamecocks)'s key wins -- A&M and Missouri -- don't look so impressive anymore, while the teams the Gamecocks lost to (LSU, Bama and Ole Miss) all have ugly losses themselves now.
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Texas was demolished by Georgia, its only game against a team with seven or more wins this year.
This is not true. I'm not gonna hang my hat on a win over Colorado State, but to keep it factual, Texas beat the Rams 52-0 in the season opener, and the Rams are currently 7-4.
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I guess they meant in conference play, obviously A&M has a noncon loss to ND.
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I guess they meant in conference play, obviously A&M has a noncon loss to ND.
The quote seems weird all the way around, not mentioning A&M's other loss to South Carolina, not mentioning Tennessee's other loss.
If they're trying to paint a picture of the "chaos" in the SEC, seems like they should include all the relevant data. Right now it just looks like they're attempting to create a false equivalency between all the SEC 2-loss suckbutts, and a team with only 1 SEC loss. And more importantly, a team that DIDN'T lose to ANY bottom dwellers like Auburn, Florida, OU, Arkansas, or Vandy.
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It is from ESPiN, whaddya expect?
But the full picture is even more strange. So, Texas-UGA rematch? I think I'd rather face A&M.
I might try and snag a ticket. Probably not.
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It is from ESPiN, whaddya expect?
But the full picture is even more strange. So, Texas-UGA rematch? I think I'd rather face A&M.
I might try and snag a ticket. Probably not.
Oh I'd definitely love another shot at Georgia. :)
But the goose-stepping sheep-humpers in Collie Station are going to be angry and out for blood on Saturday night. That absolutely could be a loss.
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Anyway, we're now staring directly at the scenario where Texas and Georgia could potentially meet 3x this season. What a weird thing we've turned college football into...
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I don't know if Tennessee has any shot if A&M wins over UT.
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I don't know if Tennessee has any shot if A&M wins over UT.
At the SEC CCG? No. The tie-breakers are all figured out, now. Georgia is in. The winner of Texas-TAMU is in.
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At the SEC CCG? No. The tie-breakers are all figured out, now. Georgia is in. The winner of Texas-TAMU is in.
This is an excellent way for it to happen. (I don’t like to talk playoff machinations, but the ones that could result from that game are in the realm of fun and interesting, and not unpleasant shout-y conversation)
I wish they could’ve put Texas-Texas A&M on Thursday.
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I figure it best to let it sort itself out rather than delve deeply into the rules. There is something about conference winning percentage at about the third tier that gives Bama an edge apparently.
I'm hearing from Josh Pate (who isn't a terrible mediot in my view) that losing the CG "should not" knock one out of the playoff. His view is IF that happens obviously, the SEC/B1G will blow this thing up, which is what they want anyway, he says. He has stated for years that the ultimate goal is some mega-thing that leaves out the weaker teams without much support. I catch him on you tube at night fairly often to see his PoV. It usually seems pretty logical to me.
I think sticking to any hard and fast rule is sort of silly.
ideally, you don’t wanna punish a team for losing that game. But if they’re right on the edge, it’ll probably happen. This year, it’s not gonna probably happen, unless Texas A&M were to beat Texas, and then lose to Georgia. Then I think we’d all be fine with it.
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I agree, it's more data, maybe a close loss would be viewed differently, but if the loser was ranked 11 or 12 before a loss, well, bye.
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This is an excellent way for it to happen. (I don’t like to talk playoff machinations, but the ones that could result from that game are in the realm of fun and interesting, and not unpleasant shout-y conversation)
I wish they could’ve put Texas-Texas A&M on Thursday.
Yup I loved the T-day tradition for UT-TAMU. Sadly the NFL muscled everyone out of Thursday night games. Greedy bastages.
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Apparently, Tennessee has no shot, it's the winner next Saturday against UGA.
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There are now only three SEC teams that could finish with 2 or fewer losses, if you consider that the floor for playoff contention (regular season plus CG).
Texas could finish 12-1.
UGA could finish 11-2.
Tennessee could finish 10-2.
If the Vols beat Vandy, they should snag a lower seed, say 9 or so. If UGA loses to Tech and/or Texas, they might snag a lower seed, probably 11-12. Texas is probably in at 11-2 if they beat the Ags and lose to UGA. Everyone else is out I think of playoff contention barring mayhem.
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There are now only three SEC teams that could finish with 2 or fewer losses, if you consider that the floor for playoff contention (regular season plus CG).
Texas could finish 12-1.
UGA could finish 11-2.
Tennessee could finish 10-2.
If the Vols beat Vandy, they should snag a lower seed, say 9 or so. If UGA loses to Tech and/or Texas, they might snag a lower seed, probably 11-12. Texas is probably in at 11-2 if they beat the Ags and lose to UGA. Everyone else is out I think of playoff contention barring mayhem.
I think there’s a modest chance a 9-3 SEC team gets in. Hell if I know which one. Might be one of those things where the final records are set, and we get a feel for the field, and suddenly realize “I guess that’s the team.”
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Oh I'd definitely love another shot at Georgia. :)
But the goose-stepping sheep-humpers in Collie Station are going to be angry and out for blood on Saturday night. That absolutely could be a loss.
😂😂😂 now THAT is how you rant like a professional!!
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(https://i.imgur.com/ACM7kRF.gif)
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I think there’s a modest chance a 9-3 SEC team gets in. Hell if I know which one. Might be one of those things where the final records are set, and we get a feel for the field, and suddenly realize “I guess that’s the team.”
I agree with "modest". As you say, which one? They all look equally ... B12ish.
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(https://i.imgur.com/ACM7kRF.gif)
😂😂😂
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What a wild wild season, I guess this is why we stick with it all.
Even Nebraska fans ...
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8 wins are still possible
not probable, but I'm sayin there's a chance
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8 wins are still possible
not probable, but I'm sayin there's a chance
Remember when anything less than 9 would get your coach fired?
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I do, and it was glorious!
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The cheapest SEC CG ticket I see is $319.
The SEC, it just costs more.
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scalp one out front 30 minutes before KO for $219
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Cheapest UT-TAMU seats I'm seeing are around $500 each high up in the endzone. That's come down a bit since Friday. Still a chance we're going to the game via some friends, and won't have to pay $500/each.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/in-zaniest-tiebreaker-case-weve-seen-yet-big-12-says-256-different-scenarios-in-play-to-decide-title-game/
An interesting analysis of 256 different possible scenerios involving tiebreakers in the Big 12. It is still mathematically possible for 8 teams to tie for first place with 1 week to go.
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I could see Boise knocking off the Ducks. They almost did it this year, and were undefeated against them up until that point.
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An interesting analysis of 256 different possible scenerios involving tiebreakers in the Big 12. It is still mathematically possible for 8 teams to tie for first place with 1 week to go.
a watered down mess of average teams
UNL might be able to tie for 2nd place
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a watered down mess of average teams
Could pretty much be the title for the entire 2024 college football season. This is what unlimited free agency does to a sport.
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a watered down mess of average teams
UNL might be able to tie for 2nd place
I think you may be right. The Big 12 has no elite teams.
Neb has already beat Colorado, one of 4 teams tied for first place in the Big 12. Illinois beat Kansas, who has beat Iowa St, BYU and Colorado in the last 3 weeks.
Iowa St did beat Iowa earlier this year by 1-pt. Which I guess supports the argument that all the teams tied for first in the Big 12 would be about 5-4 in the Big Ten.
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and all the teams not named Ohio St and Oregon would be 5-4 in the SEC
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and all the teams not named Ohio St and Oregon would be 5-4 in the SEC
You are an optimist!!!
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Ohio St and Oregon would be 9-3
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Ohio St and Oregon would be 9-3
9-3 with a fake SEC schedule, like Texas. 5-6 with a real SEC schedule, like Georgia
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and all the teams not named Ohio St and Oregon would be 5-4 in the SEC
Their second tier teams are routinely overrated. Penn State and Indiana would each have two losses, and be right in the thick of things.
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As noted often, there is a long difference between SEC schedules, e.g., UGA vs Texas.
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As noted often, there is a long difference between SEC schedules, e.g., UGA vs Texas.
Eh, people keep saying this, and yet the "scrub" teams on Texas' schedule have beaten Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU, but have been unable to beat Texas. Isn't the "SEC Grind" supposed to be the middlin' teams that are still good enough to bite the top teams in the arse, just not EVERY week?
The "SEC Grind" still exists. It's just not affecting Texas.
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I think there is a wide difference between the Texas and UGA slates this season.
Maybe the middlin' teams can upset you, it happens, but that still isn't the same as playing three top level teams on the road and one more at home plus Clemson away from home.
UGA played every upper level SEC team but A&M. They did miss Vandy.
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I think there is a wide difference between the Texas and UGA slates this season.
Maybe the middlin' teams can upset you, it happens, but that still isn't the same as playing three top level teams on the road and one more at home plus Clemson away from home.
UGA played every upper level SEC team but A&M. They did miss Vandy.
And those "upper level" SEC teams are taking losses to teams that didn't beat Texas. Seems to me like they're not actually all that "upper level." Perception is a powerful thing, and preconception is a huge part of perception in college football.
Y'all crack me up, literally going on for decades about the "SEC Grind" and then a perfect season presents itself to support your arguments, and it gets abandoned just because Texas isn't losing to the SEC scrubs like all the "real" SEC teams are.
As Hooky would almost certainly write-- LMGDMFSBAO!
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UGA didn't lose to any scrubs either. I personally think had UGA played Texas' schedule they'd be 10-1, but that isn't all that different from 9-2.
There are what I'd call "upper level SEC teams", they are the once ranked vs unranked. We could include South Carolina on that list too.
Texas UGA A&M Ole Miss Bama USCe I think they could all beat each other on a given day. Playing three of them on the road is going to be tough.
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they don't like the newby of the conference sitting on top
they'd be happier if the Horn's record looked more like the Sooners
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I see a lot of Dawgs fans rooting for A&M to beat Texas, which I suspect is probably right.
I think Texas is better, but on the road at Kyle, not a walk in the park.
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I think Texas is the better team as well, but in rivalry games, lots of of strange things can happen. This one will be as emotionally charged as any Texas- Texas A&M game has ever been, and the Ags can most certainly win it.
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who meets the dawgs if the Aggies beat the Horns?
Vols? Aggies?
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and all the teams not named Ohio St and Oregon would be 5-4 in the SEC
Well, 5-4 if the SEC would actually play 9 conference games, but 5-3 since the SEC only plays 8 conference games.
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good catch
maybe the top would separate themselves better with an 9th conference game in the SEC
probably not
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who meets the dawgs if the Aggies beat the Horns?
Vols? Aggies?
Aggies. They'll have the tie-breaker over the other 2-loss teams. Head-to-head against Texas in that case, obviously. And then whatever weird tie-breakers they use like conference opponents' win-loss record or something, to have the tie-breaker against Tennessee.
So Georgia is in either way, and the winner of the Texas-TAMU game goes to Atlanta to play them, loser stays home.
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So Georgia is in either way, and the winner of the Texas-TAMU game goes to Atlanta to play them, loser stays home.
Hey @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) , just making sure I understand correctly:
Is this the final word on SECCG scenarios? Vols are eliminated even though they can tie for a spot because they can't win tiebreakers?
For reference for those not following closely, the four contenders are:
- 6-1 Texas, @aTm
- 6-2 Georgia, SEC Season complete
- 5-2 Tennessee, @Vandy
- 5-2 aTm, vs Texas
If Texas wins, they get the top berth outright at 7-1 and aTm is out at 5-3.
If aTm wins, they tie with Texas and Georgia at 6-2. Tennessee would join that tie with a win in Nashville.
There are only four relevant possibilities:
- Texas and Tennessee win: Texas gets #1 outright at 7-1. Tennessee and Georgia tie for #2 at 6-2. UGA wins on H2H.
- aTm and Tennessee win: Texas, aTm, Tennessee, and UGA all tie at 6-2. Not sure how tiebreakers work here but you are saying it is UGA/aTm, right?
- Texas and Vandy win: Texas gets #1 outright at 7-1. UGA gets #2 outright at 6-2. Every other team has 3+ losses.
- aTm and Vandy win: Texas, aTm, and Georgia all tie at 6-2. Not sure how tiebreakers work here but you are saying it is UGA/aTm, right?
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Hey @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) , just making sure I understand correctly:
Is this the final word on SECCG scenarios? Vols are eliminated even though they can tie for a spot because they can't win tiebreakers?
For reference for those not following closely, the four contenders are:
- 6-1 Texas, @aTm
- 6-2 Georgia, SEC Season complete
- 5-2 Tennessee, @Vandy
- 5-2 aTm, vs Texas
If Texas wins, they get the top berth outright at 7-1 and aTm is out at 5-3.
If aTm wins, they tie with Texas and Georgia at 6-2. Tennessee would join that tie with a win in Nashville.
There are only four relevant possibilities:
- Texas and Tennessee win: Texas gets #1 outright at 7-1. Tennessee and Georgia tie for #2 at 6-2. UGA wins on H2H.
- aTm and Tennessee win: Texas, aTm, Tennessee, and UGA all tie at 6-2. Not sure how tiebreakers work here but you are saying it is UGA/aTm, right?
- Texas and Vandy win: Texas gets #1 outright at 7-1. UGA gets #2 outright at 6-2. Every other team has 3+ losses.
- aTm and Vandy win: Texas, aTm, and Georgia all tie at 6-2. Not sure how tiebreakers work here but you are saying it is UGA/aTm, right?
Yes, SEC office has stated that the tie-breakers work out that Georgia is in either way, and that the winner of Texas/TAMU is in.
If Texas wins, they're in because they're the clear #1 in the SEC with only 1 loss. Georgia then wins the tie-breakers among the other 2-loss teams so they'd be in.
If TAMU wins, they're in because they knocked Texas out of the #1, and now own the H2H tie-breaker over Texas. In that case, Georgia also ends up owning tie-breakers over Texas H2H, and the other two due to whatever things they're using like conference opponents' W/L records. So Georgia becomes the #1 via tie-breakers, and then A&M would be #2 due to having some similar tie-break advantage over Tennessee (conference opponents' W/L record, I think).
So no matter what, Georgia is in, and winner of Texas-TAMU is in. High stakes game in College Station this weekend.
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just like old times in the SWC
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So no matter what, Georgia is in, and winner of Texas-TAMU is in. High stakes game in College Station this weekend.
The schedule that this year's NC ends with is going to be insane no matter who it is. For Texas it could be:
- rivalry vs aTm
- SECCG vs UGA
- Hosting CFP opening round game (assuming here that they lose SECCG just because it makes for a more ridiculous stretch)
- CFP Quarter-Final vs a top-4 team
- CFP Semi-Final likely vs at top-2 team
- CFP NCG likely vs a top-2 team
Similar for Ohio State:
- Top-5 match-up with Indiana
- rivalry vs Michigan
- B1GCG vs #1 Oregon
- Hosting CFP opening round game (same assumption as with Tx)
- CFP Quarter-Final vs a top-4 team
- CFP Semi-Final likely vs a top-2 team
- CFP NCG likely vs a top-2 team
Either of those are nuts.
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just like old times in the SWC
Heh, not really. It was pretty rare for both Texas and TAMU to be good at the same time. The Thanksgiving game rarely had conference championship implications. Just a bitter in-state blood rivalry for the most part.
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The schedule that this year's NC ends with is going to be insane no matter who it is. For Texas it could be:
- rivalry vs aTm
- SECCG vs UGA
- Hosting CFP opening round game (assuming here that they lose SECCG just because it makes for a more ridiculous stretch)
- CFP Quarter-Final vs a top-4 team
- CFP Semi-Final likely vs at top-2 team
- CFP NCG likely vs a top-2 team
Similar for Ohio State:
- Top-5 match-up with Indiana
- rivalry vs Michigan
- B1GCG vs #1 Oregon
- Hosting CFP opening round game (same assumption as with Tx)
- CFP Quarter-Final vs a top-4 team
- CFP Semi-Final likely vs a top-2 team
- CFP NCG likely vs a top-2 team
Either of those are nuts.
Yeah. It's going to be remarkable, for whichever team survives the slog through to the end. Historically challenging schedule, I'd imagine.
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There is no easy path out of this playoff. Some discussed that being a 5 seed might not be too disadvantageous. Even so, it's a slog as well.
If you are a 5 seed because you missed your conference CG, it's not terrible, relatively.
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Conference championships still matter to me. I'd rather my team win enough games to play for the conference championship, than lose enough games to miss the opportunity.
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Another SEC Championship for UGA would cement their position as having second most, including ties. It would be nice.
Getting a loss there is a kind of bad thing of course.
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Ed Zachery
the odds of winning the slog of tough opponents in the playoff and grabbing the crystal football are slim
you can still wear rings that signify a conference championship
with conferences the size of today, it's a bigger deal than winning the Big 8 or SWC
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Ed Zachery
You ( @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) ) may have noticed this on FB but there is actually a guy in my town with this name. He heads up out County Veterans' Services. I arranged to have him speak at Kiwanis last week.
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Ed Zachery
the odds of winning the slog of tough opponents in the playoff and grabbing the crystal football are slim
you can still wear rings that signify a conference championship
with conferences the size of today, it's a bigger deal than winning the Big 8 or SWC
I don't know about that. Apparently you can have a non-SEC schedule even while playing in the SEC. So if Texas DOES somehow manage to beat A&M, and then beat Georgia a week later, I'm not even sure the SEC office will give the Horns a trophy.
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You ( @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) ) may have noticed this on FB but there is actually a guy in my town with this name. He heads up out County Veterans' Services. I arranged to have him speak at Kiwanis last week.
that's awesome!
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Yeah. It's going to be remarkable, for whichever team survives the slog through to the end. Historically challenging schedule, I'd imagine.
I don't know how you'll feel about this since they are your rival but aTm is playing for the highest stakes this weekend nationally.
Teams like yours and mine obviously want to win their rivalry game but realistically they are in the playoff either way. A win would be great, but a loss does NOT end the NC chase.
aTm has a very different situation. They lost OOC to Notre Dame to start the season and their two SEC losses are to 8-3/5-3 USCe and 6-5/3-4 Arkansas. If they lose to Texas, they are done. They aren't getting into the playoffs at 8-4/5-3 with those losses. However, if they manage to beat your Longhorns they head to Atlanta where they'd be playing for not only a playoff berth but a first round bye.
The Aggies certainly wouldn't make the playoff with a loss to the Horns and they might not with a loss to the Dawgs so they are basically in a 5 game win-or-go-home playoff starting this weekend:
- vs Texas, win or miss playoff at 8-4
- vs UGA, win or likely miss playoff at 9-4
- CFP Quarter-final as a top-4 seed
- CFP Semi-final
- CFP Championship
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A&M might not get the bye if they win the CG.
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A&M might not get the bye if they win the CG.
That is a possibility but I see it as remote.
The new CFP rankings aren't out yet but in the AP, aTm is #20. That is well below #11 Boise but winning the CG would require first beating Texas. The Aggies would climb a LOT in the poll if they pulled off back-to-back wins over #3 Texas and #6 Georgia.
Boise could finish 12-1 but their only games against ranked teams would be the loss at Oregon and *MAYBE* the two games against UNLV. The Rebels are currently right behind aTm at #21 but if Boise beats them they would drop. In any case, Boise wouldn't have wins even remotely comparable to aTm's wins over Texas, Georgia, and LSU.