CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 18, 2024, 08:58:41 AM
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For several weeks now it has been a four-team race and nothing has changed there. Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana all control their own destiny while Penn State is in the race mathematically but they need help and they are running out of time. The contenders:
8-0 Oregon:
- Off this week
- vs 4-4 Washington next week
7-0 Indiana:
- at 6-1 Ohio State this week
- vs 0-7 Purdue next week
6-1 Ohio State
- vs 7-0 Indiana this week
- vs 3-4 Michigan next week
6-1 Penn State
- at 4-3 Minnesota this week
- vs 1-6 Maryland next week
Another factor that could play a role is the cumulative league records of these teams' league opponents. Those are:
- .531 Ohio State's opponents are 34-30
- .424 Penn State's opponents are 28-38
- .400 Oregon's opponents are 26-39
- .354 Indiana's opponents are 23-42
The Indiana/Ohio State winner is in great shape but if that winner is Ohio State, they still need to win their final game. If it is Indiana they don't need to beat Purdue. Even with a loss at home to Purdue, a Hoosier team with a win over tOSU would be 7-1 and the tiebreaker in a two-team tie with PSU would end up being record against the best B1G team, then the next, etc. Indiana would win that because tOSU would finish with a better record than Purdue. The same factor would get IU in even in the event of a three-way tie between them, Oregon, and Penn State.
Thus, IU is playing for a spot in the CG.
Oregon is REALLY close to being a lock. They get into the CG in any potential three-way tie but there is a possibility that they would miss it in the event of a four-way tie with IU, tOSU, and PSU. As of right now, the winners of that would be tOSU and PSU based on opponents' opponents' records, see above.
What Penn State needs:
In a word, chaos.
First things first, the Nittany Lions need Ohio State to beat IU. If the Buckeyes lose, the CG is a done deal between Oregon and IU.
The problem for PSU is that after a tOSU win over IU (which they need), they are STILL only in a three-way tie with the Buckeyes and Hoosiers. Ohio State would win that tie and either tOSU or IU would win a two-way tie with PSU so beyond tOSU beating IU they need either:
- Oregon to lose at home to UWash and the others to win thus creating a 4-way tie that, as of right now, PSU finishes second in and second is good enough for one of the two spots in the CG. OR
- Ohio State AND Indiana to lose their Rivalry Weekend games thus dropping the Buckeyes and Hoosiers both to 7-2.
Short version:
You can kinda "pencil in" Oregon vs tOSU/IU winner" but there are a few scenarios in which it doesn't work out that way.
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Let's imagine Ohio State beats UI and Oregon wins as well, you have a rematch, and say OSU wins to get that top seed. Oregon then is seeded say at 8, playing 9 at home, and winning ....
Another scenario where a triple rematch is possible.
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Let's imagine Ohio State beats UI and Oregon wins as well, you have a rematch, and say OSU wins to get that top seed. Oregon then is seeded say at 8, playing 9 at home, and winning ....
Another scenario where a triple rematch is possible.
Either #8 or #5 does it. I think that #5 is a lot more likely unless Ohio State just demolished Oregon in the B1GCG, that might drop them to #8.
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Yeah, #5 is more likely, dropping from 1 to below 5 seems unlikely.
OSU would then be 1. We might see some unlikely names at 2-4.
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The 1-4 thing needs to be fixed.
Winning the XII or ACC is NOT the same as winning the SEC or B1G.
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winning any conference is not the same anymore
if you have to go through a list of tie breakers to determine a winner as above
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I was going to post that Oregon has already clinched, but then I looked closer.
SI has an article titled, "Oregon Ducks Clinch Big Ten Championship Game Berth With Win Over Wisconsin". Then in the body of the article they say, "Barring any unlikely tie-breaking scenarios in the conference standings, Oregon will compete for the conference crown in Indianapolis."
So yeah, they haven't clinched yet, but very close.
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Yes, I would think if a 12-1 Oregon team that loses the CCG to a 12-1 Ohio St team, then OSU would be the #1 seed and Oregon would be the #5 seed.
Although if the goal is to avoid rematches, it might work better to make Ohio St #1, Oregon #6, PSU #7, and Indiana #10.
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if you're not going to seed based on merit
seed based on rematch possibility?
have the others (Big 12, ACC, FBS) play the bottom qualifiers of the Big Ten and SEC until eliminated
THEN have the Big Ten/SEC challenge tourney
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Yes, I would think if a 12-1 Oregon team that loses the CCG to a 12-1 Ohio St team, then OSU would be the #1 seed and Oregon would be the #5 seed.
Although if the goal is to avoid rematches, it might work better to make Ohio St #1, Oregon #6, PSU #7, and Indiana #10.
This is interesting because I think it is reasonably likely that the B1G will have 4 teams in the CFP and they *COULD* end up being:
- #1 tOSU/Oregon winner
- #5 tOSU/Oregon loser
- #8 Penn State
- #9 Indiana
In that case CFP games *COULD* be:
Opening Round:
- Indiana at Penn State (a great B1G game that wasn't played this year)
- Boise (or other tallest midget) at tOSU/Oregon loser.
Second weekend:
- Indiana/PSU winner vs tOSU/Oregon winner
- tOSU/Oregon loser vs worst P4 Champion
Semi-Finals:
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The SEC will probably get four in as well, and the question becomes then who gets left out?
Bama, UGA, Tenn, Ole Miss, Texas/A&M ..... if only four, who gets left out? Let's say Bama beats Texas in a CG, then Texas "lost" out by getting into the CG in the first place. It's all quite weird.
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The SEC will probably get four in as well, and the question becomes then who gets left out?
Bama, UGA, Tenn, Ole Miss, Texas/A&M ..... if only four, who gets left out? Let's say Bama beats Texas in a CG, then Texas "lost" out by getting into the CG in the first place. It's all quite weird.
The committee has been pretty consistent about not punishing teams for losing a CG that they only had to play because they did well to get there. Thus, I think the CFP will be:
- B1G Champ
- SEC Champ
- ACC Champ
- B12 Champ
- B1GCG loser
- SECCG loser
- Other B1G/SEC team
- Other B1G/SEC team
- Other B1G/SEC team
- Other B1G/SEC team
- Other B1G/SEC team
- G5 Champ, probably Boise
There is a HUMONGOUS advantage, IMHO, to getting #7 or #8 as opposed to #9-11.
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So, only three non B1G/SEC teams? No Notre Dame?
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IF the Big Ten was split into 4 geographic divisions
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West
Ore 9-0, Wash 4-4, USC 3-5, UCLA 3-5
Oregon would have the West clinched
.....
North
Iowa 4-3, Minn 4-3, Wisc 3-4, Neb 2-5, NW 2-5
Iowa controls it's own Destiny and just needs to win out to win the North
Minn is still alive and could tie for first if it wins out.
Wisc, Neb, NW are still alive and all have a mathematical chance to tie for first at 4-5
.....
South
Ind 7-0, ILL 4-3, Mich 3-4, MSU 2-5, Pur 0-7
Indiana has clinched the South
......
East
OSU 6-1, PSU 6-1, Rut 3-4, MD 1-6
OSU controls its own destiny and just needs to win out to win the East
PSU is still alive and could tie for first if it wins out.
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This article from an Oregon site (https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2024/11/why-hasnt-oregon-football-clinched-a-big-ten-championship-game-appearance-yet-tiebreakers-scenarios-explained.html) caught my eye. The writer stated that Oregon needs both a tOSU loss to IU AND a PSU loss to Minnesota to clinch this weekend.
I think he is wrong but now I'm questioning my understanding of the tiebreakers so I'd like some review/input from the board.
My understanding is that a tOSU loss clinches a B1GCG berth for the Ducks because:
- tOSU would be out at 6-2 because the best they could do is 7-2 and that would be behind the worst that Oregon and IU could do (7-1 each).
- Oregon would win any potential tie involving Penn State.
Ties are only relevant for the Ducks if they lose to Washington and I'm asserting that an Indiana win over tOSU clinches it for the Ducks so our assumptions are:
- Indiana beats Ohio State this weekend, and
- Oregon loses to Washington next weekend.
Given those assumptions there are 4 possible scenarios:
- IU wins the league outright at 9-0. Penn State loses to either MN or UMD or both. Oregon finishes alone in second place at 8-1.
- IU wins the league outright at 9-0. Oregon and Penn State tie for second at 8-1.
- IU loses to PU and finishes 8-1. Penn State loses to either MN or UMD or both. Oregon finishes tied with IU for first at 8-1.
- IU loses to PU and finishes 8-1. Penn State wins out. Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all tie at 8-1.
Oregon is in without resorting to tiebreakers in scenarios #1 and #3 so forget them.
Scenario #2, Oregon and Penn State tie for second at 8-1. Tiebreakers:
- If tied for #1: Not applicable, they are tied for second.
- H2H: Not applicable, they didn't play.
- Record against all common conference opponents: For Oregon and Penn State these are tOSU, IL, the two UW's, UCLA, UMD, and PU. Both 6-1 against those seven teams with Ore losing to UWash and PSU losing to tOSU. Thus this is tied so move to:
- Record against conference opponent with the best conference record, then the next, etc. The best will be Ohio State because tOSU is 6-1 so they can do no worse than 6-3 while UWash is 4-4 so they can do no better than 5-4. Oregon wins and goes to the CG.
Scenario #4 IU, ORE, and PSU all tie at 8-1, tiebreakers:
- H2H2H: Not applicable because none of them played each other.
- Winning percentage against all common conference opponents: For the Ducks, Hoosiers, and Nittany Lions these are tOSU, UWash, UCLA, UMD, and PU. They would each be 4-1 against those five with the losses coming to tOSU, UWash, and PU for PSU, ORE, and IU respectively. Thus, this is toed so move to:
- Record against the next highest placed common opponent. Ohio State would be first here so PSU would be eliminated and the Ducks would play the Hoosiers in the CG.
Am I missing a scenario in which tOSU loses to IU and Oregon is left out of the CG? I can't see one.
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Just saw this posted
https://twitter.com/ChrisVannini/status/1858980770611950029?s=01
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Just saw this posted
https://twitter.com/ChrisVannini/status/1858980770611950029?s=01
LoL.
Hard to tell I guess.
According to link I posted Oregon needs both tOSU and PSU to lose.
I think just tOSU.
This link says already clinched.
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https://bigten.org/fb/article/blt323f32f0ef5dac27/
Yeah, I am not even going to try to figure it out, but concede it's very, very confusing.
But according to the Big Ten's own official website, the Big Ten is saying it's official. Oregon has clinched a spot in the CCG.
The fact that it took the Big Ten and Oregon 2 days to figure that out themselves is confirmation it's not easy to sort out.
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The fact that it took the Big Ten and Oregon 2 days to figure that out themselves is confirmation it's not easy to sort out.
This is ... amusing, to me. I think the SEC does it about the same way. This is why I hope they end up with a slew of 6-2 teams in conference.
I don't think Texas will lose to Kentucky, but A&M could well lose at Auburn, the spread is pretty tight.
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Well, when it comes to college football conferences, math and geography are not exactly their strong points.
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https://bigten.org/fb/article/blt323f32f0ef5dac27/
Yeah, I am not even going to try to figure it out, but concede it's very, very confusing.
But according to the Big Ten's own official website, the Big Ten is saying it's official. Oregon has clinched a spot in the CCG.
The fact that it took the Big Ten and Oregon 2 days to figure that out themselves is confirmation it's not easy to sort out.
Thanks for the link.
The scenario in which I thought that Oregon could miss is a 4-way tie at 8-1.
Here is their explanation:
"Ohio State earns first berth due to highest cumulative conference winning percentage of all
conference opponents. Oregon earns second berth due to win vs. common opponent
ranked highest in standings (OSU; ORE def. OSU, OSU def. PSU). Oregon would be No. 1
seed and Ohio State would be No. 2 seed due to head-to-head result."
Penn State currently has and could end up with a higher cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents. I thought that meant that tOSU and PSU would be selected.
Instead, the B1G's interpretation is that after Ohio State is selected, the other three go back to step #1.
That seems like an odd reading of the tiebreakers but it is apparently the official B1G reading.
This also means that Penn State is more-or-less eliminated.
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Instead, the B1G's interpretation is that after Ohio State is selected, the other three go back to step #1.
That seems like an odd reading of the tiebreakers but it is apparently the official B1G reading.
That's been a feature of the tiebreakers as far back as I can remember.
If you have a multi-team tie, once you get to a tiebreaker step where one team becomes the clear winner, you slot them in and then start over with only the remaining tied teams.
I.e. once Ohio State is the 1 seed, you now have a three-way tie between 8-1 teams that is evaluated from scratch as if Ohio State is no longer part of that tie.
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I dislike it
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That's been a feature of the tiebreakers as far back as I can remember.
If you have a multi-team tie, once you get to a tiebreaker step where one team becomes the clear winner, you slot them in and then start over with only the remaining tied teams.
I.e. once Ohio State is the 1 seed, you now have a three-way tie between 8-1 teams that is evaluated from scratch as if Ohio State is no longer part of that tie.
That was my understanding IF there was one winner and everyone else was tied. That is NOT the case in this scenario.
Also, it seems odd to me that Ohio State is NOT the #1 seed. They are the first team to win by tiebreakers but then for seeding they start from scratch and it goes to Oregon based on H2H.
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That was my understanding IF there was one winner and everyone else was tied. That is NOT the case in this scenario.
I thought that's what they said. In a four-way tie at 8-1, OSU wins the tie based on cumulative conference winning % of all conference opponents. Essentially OSU had the 'hardest schedule' so they win the tie.
Then OSU is removed and you have a three-way tie at 8-1. It's based on record against best common opponent. Since OSU would have played all three teams, and Oregon beat OSU while PSU and IU lost to OSU, Oregon wins that tie.
Did I miss something?
Also, it seems odd to me that Ohio State is NOT the #1 seed. They are the first team to win by tiebreakers but then for seeding they start from scratch and it goes to Oregon based on H2H.
That does also seem odd to me. I would have thought that by virtue of winning the four-way 8-1 tie, OSU would retain the #1 seed.
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by gaining the #1 seed you get to chose home or road unis?
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Also, it seems odd to me that Ohio State is NOT the #1 seed. They are the first team to win by tiebreakers but then for seeding they start from scratch and it goes to Oregon based on H2H.
Yes, that would be a big deal if the #1 seed gets to host the CCG. But since the CCG is at a neutral site, I wonder how much it matters to each team.
Does the #1 seed get to choose the locker room or the uniform colors? I guess that is something. I am sure it is worked into the coaches contract IF he makes it to the CCG and if he wins the CCG, but I doubt if the contract cares if his team is the #1 seed or the #2 seed going into the game.
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I thought that's what they said. In a four-way tie at 8-1, OSU wins the tie based on cumulative conference winning % of all conference opponents. Essentially OSU had the 'hardest schedule' so they win the tie.
Then OSU is removed and you have a three-way tie at 8-1. It's based on record against best common opponent. Since OSU would have played all three teams, and Oregon beat OSU while PSU and IU lost to OSU, Oregon wins that tie.
Did I miss something?
Obviously the league agrees with your interpretation but just by way of explanation, my understanding was the same as yours only IF the "other" teams were all tied.
So for example, if all four (Ducks, Bucks, Hoosiers, Lions) tied at 8-1 then we'd go through the tiebreakers and all would be tied until we get to "cumulative league record of league opponents" (aka, SoS). The presently stands at:
- .531 Ohio State, 34-30
- .424 Penn State, 28-38
- .400 Oregon, 26-39
- .354 Indiana, 23-42
My previous assumption was that since this doesn't have one winner and a three-way tie for second but rather a four-team hierarchy of tOSU>PSU>Ore>IU this would break the tie:
- Ohio State - #1 seed, home jerseys in the CG
- Penn State - #2 seed, goes to CG
I only thought that we would remove one team and send the others back through the tiebreakers if the situation was that you had ONE winner (or one loser) and the other three were tied.
by gaining the #1 seed you get to chose home or road unis?
Yes, that would be a big deal if the #1 seed gets to host the CCG. But since the CCG is at a neutral site, I wonder how much it matters to each team.
Does the #1 seed get to choose the locker room or the uniform colors? I guess that is something. I am sure it is worked into the coaches contract IF he makes it to the CCG and if he wins the CCG, but I doubt if the contract cares if his team is the #1 seed or the #2 seed going into the game.
This is my understanding. The #1 seed doesn't host, they merely get to wear home jerseys so it REALLY doesn't matter. I'm not arguing the point because it matters to my team, I'm arguing the point because it makes no sense to me that the first tiebreaker winner somehow isn't the #1 seed.
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Final update based on the scenarios put out by the league.
Oregon has clinched a spot.
Indiana will clinch a spot with a win over Ohio State this weekend.
Reasons:
- The worst IU could do is 8-1 (if they lose to Purdue).
- Ohio State could do no better than 7-2 (if they beat Michigan) so they are out.
- The best PSU could do is 8-1 (if they win out) and they would lose the tie with IU based on IU beating and PSU losing to Ohio State.
IF Ohio State beats Indiana then the Buckeyes, Hoosiers, and Nittany Lions are all alive. At that point, for each:
Ohio State:
The Buckeyes control their own destiny. If they beat the Wolverines they go. Even if IU and PSU also finish 8-1 and even if Oregon also finishes 8-1 the Buckeyes go in any of those scenarios.
Ohio State also has a mathematical chance with a loss to the Wolverines but they only make it if:
- Indiana loses to Purdue, and
- Penn State loses at least one of their last two games.
Indiana/Penn State:
These teams need to win their last game(s) and hope for an Ohio State loss.
In the event of a two-way tie between IU and PSU at 8-1, it would come down to "cumulative league record of league opponents". Currently PSU leads that by 4.5 games (28-38 vs 23-42). That is more than likely insurmountable so Penn State probably goes.
So in a list of possible scenarios:
- IU beats tOSU, IU goes to CG. NOTE, in all scenarios below it is assumed that tOSU defeated IU.
- tOSU beats M, tOSU goes to CG. NOTE, in all scenarios below it is assumed that M defeated tOSU.
- PSU wins out, PSU goes to CG. NOTE, in all scenarios below it is assumed that PSU lost at least one of their last two games.
- IU beats PU, IU goes to CG. NOTE, in all scenarios below it is assumed that PU defeated IU.
- Ohio State goes to CG as the winner of a two (or three) way tie with IU (and PSU) at 7-2.
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Obviously the league agrees with your interpretation but just by way of explanation, my understanding was the same as yours only IF the "other" teams were all tied.
So for example, if all four (Ducks, Bucks, Hoosiers, Lions) tied at 8-1 then we'd go through the tiebreakers and all would be tied until we get to "cumulative league record of league opponents" (aka, SoS). The presently stands at:
- .531 Ohio State, 34-30
- .424 Penn State, 28-38
- .400 Oregon, 26-39
- .354 Indiana, 23-42
My previous assumption was that since this doesn't have one winner and a three-way tie for second but rather a four-team hierarchy of tOSU>PSU>Ore>IU this would break the tie:
- Ohio State - #1 seed, home jerseys in the CG
- Penn State - #2 seed, goes to CG
I only thought that we would remove one team and send the others back through the tiebreakers if the situation was that you had ONE winner (or one loser) and the other three were tied.
Ahh. I think all that needs to be satisfied is that the tiebreaker produces one clear winner. What happens below is irrelevant.
I.e. if OSU is atop the conference percentages at 0.531, and nobody else is at 0.531 or higher, OSU goes.
However, if OSU and PSU were BOTH at 0.531, and Oregon was at 0.400 and IU at 0.354, there is no ONE clear winner. So you move to the next tiebreaker. You don't advance OSU & PSU because they were ahead of the other two.
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Ahh. I think all that needs to be satisfied is that the tiebreaker produces one clear winner. What happens below is irrelevant.
I.e. if OSU is atop the conference percentages at 0.531, and nobody else is at 0.531 or higher, OSU goes.
However, if OSU and PSU were BOTH at 0.531, and Oregon was at 0.400 and IU at 0.354, there is no ONE clear winner. So you move to the next tiebreaker. You don't advance OSU & PSU because they were ahead of the other two.
Really?
I look at that the other way as well. I would assume that means:
- tOSU and PSU win.
- Ore and IU lose.
Then you go to H2H between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions to determine jersey color.
Now I'm curious how they would handle that. It isn't relevant this year because PSU's opponents can't catch tOSU's opponents but with this new non-divisional structure it is bound to happen eventually.
For anyone else following this conversation, how would you read the tiebreakers in the event of a four-way tie that came down to "cumulative league record of league opponents" where:
- The tiebreaker produced two winners (in @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's example, tOSU and PSU) but those two were tied.
- The other two were behind them.
I read that as tOSU and PSU go, ORE and IU are out. Beta reads it as "no clear winner, move on to the next tiebreaker" (If I'm misstating your position please correct me). Others?
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This new process, in a 3+ team tiebreaker, where you figure out the top team first, then reset to figure out the 2nd seed from the remaining teams that are left, seems to be the opposite of the old elimination method that I remember.
In the old tiebreaker procedures, I believe they would try to eliminate the bottom team as the first step, then reset to figure out the tiebreaker among the top remaining teams that are still left.
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I read that as tOSU and PSU go, ORE and IU are out. Beta reads it as "no clear winner, move on to the next tiebreaker" (If I'm misstating your position please correct me). Others?
I take it back. I was correct about the procedure if one is the clear winner, but not if [only] two are tied for the #1.
Full tiebreaker procedure is linked below (won't render as an embedded link for some reason). This is the section at the beginning of "three or more teams" being tied:
After the head-to-head competition among the tied teams, if a tiebreaker step produces standings with a clear No. 1 team by itself among the tied teams, that team is selected for the championship game and the remaining teams still in contention revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker procedures (e.g., if there are three teams, the No. 1 team is in the championship game and the other two teams go to the first step of the two-team tiebreaker procedures; if there are four teams, the No. 1 team is in the 2 championship game and the other three teams go to the first step of the three-team tiebreaker procedures, etc.).
If a tiebreaker step produces results with two teams tied for No. 1, they are both selected for the championship game. To decide the ranking of the two teams, they will progress through the two-team tiebreaker procedures.
First paragraph supports the point I was right about. Second paragraph supports the point you are correct and I was wrong about.
My mistake.
https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltca750cef518bc6e4/blt2bf0c27b5714240c/66cc95d319b683cdf2088edf/2024_Big_Ten_Football_Tiebreaker_-_FINAL[10][72].pdf
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I take it back. I was correct about the procedure if one is the clear winner, but not if [only] two are tied for the #1.
Full tiebreaker procedure is linked below (won't render as an embedded link for some reason). This is the section at the beginning of "three or more teams" being tied:
First paragraph supports the point I was right about. Second paragraph supports the point you are correct and I was wrong about.
My mistake.
https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltca750cef518bc6e4/blt2bf0c27b5714240c/66cc95d319b683cdf2088edf/2024_Big_Ten_Football_Tiebreaker_-_FINAL[10][72].pdf
Ok, thanks. Now it makes more sense to me.
So my mistake was thinking that the tiebreaker would be viewed as a hierarchy from 1-4. It isn't. It is simply used to select #1 and then the other three go back to step 1. However, if two are tied for #1, they both go.
I think I have it now.
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This new process, in a 3+ team tiebreaker, where you figure out the top team first, then reset to figure out the 2nd seed from the remaining teams that are left, seems to be the opposite of the old elimination method that I remember.
In the old tiebreaker procedures, I believe they would try to eliminate the bottom team as the first step, then reset to figure out the tiebreaker among the top remaining teams that are still left.
This was my recollection and I think it is why I made the mistake of not realizing that, as @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) quoted, the new rule specifies "one clear winner". IIRC, the old rule said that you took teams out based on each tiebreaker. If a team came off the top, they won, if a team came off the bottom, they were eliminated. This new rule changes that slightly but consequentially.
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I'll wait for the league office to calculate the results of the tiebreaker
I'd guess they left the rules vague enough that they have some wiggle room to allow them to sway the results.
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I'll wait for the league office to calculate the results of the tiebreaker
I'd guess they left the rules vague enough that they have some wiggle room to allow them to sway the results.
Maybe they should form a committee to pick the 2 teams for the CCG, since that works so well for the CFP ;)
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Very interesting thread