CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: LittlePig on November 17, 2024, 03:48:25 AM
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Well, every team in the top 4 has had its one close game against a bottom 14 team and survived. This time it was Oregon's turn,
1. Oregon - pulls out a tough 3-point win at Wisc in a night game in November. Oregon is 11-0 overall and 8-0 in conference. Oregon's best victory is at home over Ohio St
2. Ohio St - dominated NW at Wrigley Field. OSU is 9-1 and 6-1. OSU's only loss is by 1-point at Oregon. Ohio St has won on the road at PSU. Ohio St hosts Ind next week.
3. Indiana - had the week off. Indiana is 10-0 and 7-0. Indiana has dominated everyone they have played except for a close win over Michigan. Indiana gets its big chance to prove itself next week at Ohio St.
4. Penn St. - dominated a bad Purdue team this week. PSU is 9-1 and 6-1. PSU's only loss was at home against Ohio St.
Now the gap between #4 and #5 is so large it's tempting to stop here, but I must keep slogging through, you know, for the good of the Power Rankings
5. Iowa - had the week off. Iowa is 6-4 and 4-3. Iowa has no home losses and has 1 road win at Minn.
6. Minnesota - had the week off. Minn is 6-4 and 4-3 . Minn has 2 road wins at ILL and UCLA, and 1 home loss to Iowa.
7. Illinois - solid win this week over a decent at times MSU team. Illinois is 7-3 and 4-3. ILL has 1 road win at Neb in OT, and 1 home loss to Minn.
8. Washington. - beat a suddenly decent UCLA team this week. Wash is 6-5 and 4-4. Wash has no losses at home and no wins on the road.
9. UCLA - lost this week on the road at Wash. UCLA is 4-6 and 3-5. UCLA has road wins at Rut and at Neb. UCLA has 3 home losses to Ind, Ore and Minn
10. Wisconsin - tough 3-point loss at home to Oregon this week. Wisc is 5-5 and 3-4. Wisc has 2 road wins against Rut and NW and a loss at home to Oregon.
11. Mich St - lost this week on the road to ILL. - MSU is 4-6 and 2-5. MSU has 1 road win at MD and 2 home losses to Ohio St and Ind.
12. Michigan - Off this week. Mich is 3-4 and 5-5. Mich has no road wins and has a loss at home to Oregon.
13. USC - won at home this week against Neb. USC is 5-5 and 3-5. USC has no road wins and has a loss at home to PSU in OT.
14. Nebraska - lost on road to USC. Neb is 5-5 and 2-5. Neb has 2 losses at home, to ILL in OT, and to UCLA. Neb has 1 road win at Pur.
15. Northwestern - lost to Ohio St at Wrigley. NW is 4-6 and 2-5. NW has 2 road wins, at MD and at Pur in OT. NW has 3 home losses to Ind, Wisc and Ohio St.
16. Rutgers - won this week at MD. Rut is 6-4 and 3-4. Rut has 1 road win at MD and 2 home losses to Wisc and UCLA.
17. Maryland - lost at home this week to Rut. MD is 4-6 and 1-6. MD has no road wins and has 3 home losses to MSU, NW, Rut
18. Purdue - lost at home to PSU. Purdue is 1-9 and 0-7. Purdue has no road wins and has 3 home losses to Neb, Ore, NW. Purdue has lost 2 games in OT, at Neb, and vs. NW.
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Some general rules I came up to help explain my power rankings for the bottom. 14 twams.
1. Teams in the bottom 14 get no credit for winning at home against another bottom 14 team.
2. Bottom 14 teams get penalized for losing at home to another bottom 14 team.
3. Teams in bottom 14 do not get penalized for losing at home to a top 4 team.
4. Bottom 14 teams don't get penalized for losing on the road to another bottom 14 team
5. Teams in bottom 14 do get credit for winning on the road against another bottom 14 team, except for winning at Purdue.
6. Teams do not get credit for winning on the road at Purdue. I debated if there should also be an exception for MD,, but decided road wins at MD still gets some credit .
7. Wins in Overtime do not get as much credit as wins in regulation time. Losses in OT do not get penalized as much as losses in regulation time.. so for example, even though Purdue is winless, they do get some credit for at least losing 2 games in OT.
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(https://i.imgur.com/BwcTwrr.png)
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Same revised methodology for ranking #5 through #16. First number is +/- against the group, second number is point differential in those games. Might consider dropping Maryland out of the group. That would drop MSU to E and -13. That win over Maryland is the difference between them being #13 and #8, which doesn't seem correct. Then Wisconsin, USC, Illinois, Washington and Michigan would each move up a spot. Rutgers and Nebraska would then flip #14/#15
- OREGON (1) - if a low point is a narrow win in a night game in Madison, you could do a lot worst
- OHIO STATE (2) - slow start, figured it out
- INDIANA (3) - bye week
- PENN STATE (4) - fast start
- IOWA (6) +1 (+58)
- MINNESOTA (7) +1 (+17)
- UCLA (5) +1 (-3)
- MICHIGAN STATE (8) +1 (-10)
- WISCONSIN (9) +1 (-14)
- USC (10) E (+31)
- ILLINOIS (11) E (+24)
- WASHINGTON (13) E (E)
- MICHIGAN (12) E (-11)
- RUTGERS (16) -1 (-43)
- NEBRASKA (15) -2 (-8)
- MARYLAND (14) -3 (-68)
- NORTHWESTERN (17) - came out looking good on defense, and faded quickly
- PURDUE (18) - when your own field design screws your team, that's how you know how your season is going
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2. OHIO STATE (2) - slow start, figured it out
the Buckeye Boards
at 12:15 pm - team sucks
at 1:15 pm - Natty or Bust
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the Buckeye Boards
at 12:15 pm - team sucks
at 1:15 pm - Natty or Bust
Sounds familiar.
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1. OSU
2. Ducking Fucks
3. Indiana
4. PSU
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5-18
(https://i.imgur.com/4jeAC7H.jpeg)
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the Buckeye Boards
at 12:15 pm - team sucks
at 1:15 pm - Natty or Bust
You'd think by now people would know that you start every game tied at zero, you can only score seven points at a time, and the opposing team scripts their opening drive.
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1)Clucks dodged a bullet - it's hunting season
2)Buckeyes - Big Game on deck in the 'Shoe with the next door neighbors
3)Hoosiers get a bye 5th team to get one before facing the Scarlett & Gray
4)PSU - Lions waxed the Boilers
5)Goophs
6) Illini - won 1 more game than the Goophs but lost to them
7)Woefulrines face NU next week for a chance to go Bowling
8)Hawkeyes,look great one week look like a grate the next
9)Badgers close but no stoogie taking down No.1
10)Huskies a far cry from last season but have 6 wins
It's the Big Ten - the rest of you will have to get off the canvas
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You'd think by now people would know that you start every game tied at zero, you can only score seven points at a time, and the opposing team scripts their opening drive.
Go tell the zanies on 11W
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1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Indiana
5. Iowa
6. Illinois
7. Washington
8. Michigan
9. USC
10. Wisconsin
11. Minnesota
12. Michigan State
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers
15. Maryland
16. Northwestern
17. UCLA
18. Purdue
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1) Ohio State: still the Buckeyes for me. They did what they were supposed to do.
2) Oregon: so either (a) long travel is hard; or (b) Wisconsin ain't that good (or both). Either way, this confirms my view that Oregon should be #2.
3) Indiana: Great moments are born from great opportunity. And that's what you have on Saturday, boys. That's what you've earned here: one game... Saturday, you are the greatest college football team in the land. You were born to be football players. And you were meant to be in the Shoe on Saturday. This is your time. Their time--is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearing about what a great football team the Buckeyes have. Screw 'em. This is your time. Now go out there and take it!
4) Penn State: did what it was supposed to do.
...
5) Still Iowa. Good time for a week off.
6) Illinois: this feels like it's crystalized.
7) Still Michigan above anyone else on this list.
8) Washington: solid win--same idea as with Michigan.
9) Wisconsin: gritty performance. Now, without an offensive coordinator or identity, need a win in the last two to go bowling. But they should have a good shot at both.
10) Minnesota: but that loss looks bad.
11) USC: decent win, but not especially impressive.
12) UCLA: travling to Seattle is hard, but have to win these middle-of-the-pack games to get up the chart.
13) Michigan State: dominated by the Illini.
14) Nebraska: best win?...(Checks notes) Colorado? Need a win this weekend with the Badgers coming to Lincoln.
15) Rutgers: quality win. Good on 'em. Should they be ahead of Nebraska? Lost H2H, but in Lincoln by one score. Decent argument that their resume is better.
16) Northwestern: lost.
17) Maryland: lost.
18) Purdue: the most consistent team on this list.
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Updated SOR/SP+ bracket
- #12 Boise State at #5 OHIO STATE; winner vs. #4 BYU
- #11 Miami at #6 Georgia; winner vs. #3 SMU
- #10 Ole Miss at #7 PENN STATE; winner vs. #2 Texas
- #9 INDIANA at #8 Alabama; winner vs. #1 OREGON
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hah, BYU and SMU prayin for upsets!
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I think that might be the one adjustment going forward, is how sweet that #5 seed is going to be. You get a home game, against likely a mid major. Then in a bowl you play the worst conference champ, who might not even otherwise be in the playoff.
I like how it both makes more games in the regular season matter, but in the end, it's still kind of still the old 4 team CFP
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the #5 seed will most times go to the SEC or the B1G so I doubt it changes much
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Updated SOR/SP+ bracket
- #12 Boise State at #5 OHIO STATE; winner vs. #4 BYU
- #11 Miami at #6 Georgia; winner vs. #3 SMU
- #10 Ole Miss at #7 PENN STATE; winner vs. #2 Texas
- #9 INDIANA at #8 Alabama; winner vs. #1 OREGON
The CFP rankings are not out yet, but I think Boise St right now is ahead of BYU and Colorado in the latest rankings that are out.
If that is still the case at the end of the season, then I think Boise St would be the 4th highest ranked conference champion ahead of the Big 12 champ and will get the #4 seed.
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The CFP rankings are not out yet, but I think Boise St right now is ahead of BYU and Colorado in the latest rankings that are out.
If that is still the case at the end of the season, then I think Boise St would be the 4th highest ranked conference champion ahead of the Big 12 champ and will get the #4 seed.
This is solely based on 2/3 SOR and 1/3 SP+
Pollsters like Boise State more than the computers do
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Massey Composite Computer Rankings - 91 rankings (last week in parentheses)
- OHIO STATE (2)
- OREGON (1)
- Texas (5)
- Alabama (3)
- INDIANA (4)
- Notre Dame (6)
- Georgia (9)
- PENN STATE (7)
- Ole Miss (8)
- Miami (11)
- SMU (13)
- Tennessee (12)
- South Carolina (14)
- Clemson (17)
- BYU (10)
- Texas A&M (15)
- Boise State (16)
- Colorado (21)
- Iowa State (22)
- Tulane (24)
- Kansas State (19)
- Arizona State (-)
- LSU (20)
- Louisville (18)
- Army (25)
- 27. Iowa (26)
- 29. Illinois (36)
- 30. USC (35)
- 36. Minnesota (31)
- 40. Michigan (39)
- 43. Wisconsin (43)
- 44. Washington (49)
- 54. Nebraska (48)
- 57. Rutgers (65)
- 61. UCLA (51)
- 75. Maryland (66)
- 76. Michigan State (67)
- 82. Northwestern (78)
- 117. Purdue (113)
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Same revised methodology for ranking #5 through #16. First number is +/- against the group, second number is point differential in those games. Might consider dropping Maryland out of the group. That would drop MSU to E and -13. That win over Maryland is the difference between them being #13 and #8, which doesn't seem correct. Then Wisconsin, USC, Illinois, Washington and Michigan would each move up a spot. Rutgers and Nebraska would then flip #14/#15
After another home Maryland loss, definitely moving them into the bottom 3, and adjusting the other rankings
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Every year has that one team that wins about 2-3 games more than it should.
This year's version seems to be Illinois, with 2 wins in OT and a last second win over Rutgers today.
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Badgers might take Bert back
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well, many huskers would take Pelini back