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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on June 27, 2018, 05:10:42 AM

Title: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 27, 2018, 05:10:42 AM
Vote to see results.  Think long and hard.  That's what she said.  College only.  Tip your waiter.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on June 27, 2018, 08:28:50 AM
Damn, loaded
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 27, 2018, 10:16:42 AM
Everyone knows Sanders had the best single season ever.  But, if you wanted to, you could say his career numbers are lacking.  He rushed for fewer career yards than Ricky Williams.  No, not that Ricky Williams, the other one, from Texas Tech.  A near contemporary of the real Ricky Williams.

So there's that.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on June 27, 2018, 10:19:34 AM
Biakabatuka had perhaps the most impressive single game by a RB I've ever seen in their '95 upset of Ohio State.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 27, 2018, 12:27:25 PM
To prove I'm not a total Purdue homer, I actually voted for Calvin Johnson over Taylor Stubblefield. Stubblefield was a great college player; always managed to find and sit in holes in the zone and as a result had become the NCAA career receptions leader by the time he left the school. 

But I've never seen someone so amazingly dominant that he could make a QB like Reggie Ball look good. Calvin Johnson was a man amongst boys every time he stepped on a college football field [and then you could pretty well claim the same in the NFL--he was that good].
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: MarqHusker on June 27, 2018, 01:26:37 PM
Everyone knows Sanders had the best single season ever.  But, if you wanted to, you could say his career numbers are lacking.  He rushed for fewer career yards than Ricky Williams.  No, not that Ricky Williams, the other one, from Texas Tech.  A near contemporary of the real Ricky Williams.

So there's that.
John Burkett, Livan Hernandez and 207 other guys have more wins than Sandy Koufax.
Classic peak vs career. 
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on June 27, 2018, 04:41:05 PM
To prove I'm not a total Purdue homer, I actually voted for Calvin Johnson over Taylor Stubblefield. Stubblefield was a great college player; always managed to find and sit in holes in the zone and as a result had become the NCAA career receptions leader by the time he left the school.

But I've never seen someone so amazingly dominant that he could make a QB like Reggie Ball look good. Calvin Johnson was a man amongst boys every time he stepped on a college football field [and then you could pretty well claim the same in the NFL--he was that good].
Well, considering your pro-Brees argument was that he was surrounded by bums, it's hard to argue one of those bums belongs a slot above guys like Desmond, Megatron or Barry Sanders, let alone the others.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 27, 2018, 04:46:25 PM
I saw GT play a lot back then.  They had a lot of 1-WR route plays - first by Dez White, then a couple years later, Johnson.  So they'd just lob the ball way downfield and let them make a play.  Easier to do when ur the size of a TE and have WR speed (Johnson).  

I couldn't claim he was as dynamic as Howard, though.  
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2018, 04:54:42 PM
Best player may not be best stats.

Nor best known.  Glad to see Sinkwich make the list.  
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2018, 04:58:05 PM
And we thought 20 was loaded ... And it was.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Entropy on June 28, 2018, 10:27:33 AM
I still voted Sanders.... that one season was special.   I'd take him over any of the other guys if I was starting a CF team
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 28, 2018, 12:05:49 PM
Well, considering your pro-Brees argument was that he was surrounded by bums, it's hard to argue one of those bums belongs a slot above guys like Desmond, Megatron or Barry Sanders, let alone the others.
Well, I'm not saying I actually would have voted Stubblefield over the others. If I had given him a vote, it would purely have been a homer vote, not objective in any way. I was actually surprised he was included on this list at all. He was a short, slow, slot receiver that succeeded well beyond what anyone would have suggested, but I don't think he was ever in the running here. He was an amazing possession receiver, where possession receiver is the guy who isn't particularly notable for anything he does except somehow always being open just past the sticks on 3rd down. 

That said, per your argument, Stubblefield didn't play with Brees. He played during the Orton years. 

I sure wish either Brees or Orton had a Calvin Johnson to throw the ball to, though... For all that could be said about "basketball on grass" being a pass-happy offense, Tiller never really seemed to bring in the class of WR talent that you thought would be expected given that his system showcased the WRs so much.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 28, 2018, 01:19:24 PM
Biakabatuka had perhaps the most impressive single game by a RB I've ever seen in their '95 upset of Ohio State.
I went back and watched highlights of that game a few weeks ago - I hadn't remembered he came into the game with a leg injury.  His 300-yard day should be remembered more for the O-Line - he had all the room in the world to work with.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on June 28, 2018, 01:43:16 PM
I went back and watched highlights of that game a few weeks ago - I hadn't remembered he came into the game with a leg injury.  His 300-yard day should be remembered more for the O-Line - he had all the room in the world to work with.
I've posted that on these boards before, that the holes, particularly on the first couple drives were like nothing I've ever seen.  Our seats were high in the end zone, perfect for watching those things develop.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Hoss on June 28, 2018, 02:42:21 PM
This one is easy.

The damage Sanders would have done in the current game is almost unfathomable.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 28, 2018, 06:50:01 PM

I sure wish either Brees or Orton had a Calvin Johnson to throw the ball to, though... For all that could be said about "basketball on grass" being a pass-happy offense, Tiller never really seemed to bring in the class of WR talent that you thought would be expected given that his system showcased the WRs so much.

I think these 'offensive genius' coaches don't worry about the talent of their WRs too much.  They're so confident that if they can get their QB to do what they want, anyone could be running the routes and the system would work.  Spurrier was kind of like that.  Before Hilliard and Anthony, Florida's best receivers in Spurrier's first 4 years were a TE, a 5'8" guy, and a white kid that probably ran a 4.8 forty.  
The better the passing system, the less talented the working parts are required to be.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 29, 2018, 03:10:18 PM
I think these 'offensive genius' coaches don't worry about the talent of their WRs too much.  They're so confident that if they can get their QB to do what they want, anyone could be running the routes and the system would work.  Spurrier was kind of like that.  Before Hilliard and Anthony, Florida's best receivers in Spurrier's first 4 years were a TE, a 5'8" guy, and a white kid that probably ran a 4.8 forty.  
The better the passing system, the less talented the working parts are required to be.
I agree that is true, but at the same time, you put Calvin Johnson on a Tiller- or Spurrier-coached team, and I'll bet the numbers get even better.
I've just never figured it out. It would be one thing to say that Purdue just can't recruit that level of talent, but I can see that Brohm appears to be getting a higher quality of WR recruit in year 2 of his recruiting than Tiller got until late in his process. 
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2018, 03:17:53 PM
voted Barry, not a tough decision

my favorite Husker I-back wore #21 - kid from Iowa

career numbers don't put him on this list, but he was obviously a great back
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on August 24, 2018, 10:29:02 AM
https://twitter.com/Jake_Trotter/status/1032669582606184449
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 10:42:28 AM
The clear trend today with RBs is to limit them to around 20 carries per game, with a few exceptions.  With 20 touches and 7 ypg, well, you do the math, a great game but not beyond the pale.

The "Pale" interesting, perhaps, is the area around Dublin, Ireland.

Is it more impressive to have 20 carries and 7 ypc or 35 carries and 4 ypc?  It depends.

What Sanders did in the League is tough to ignore.  He did not exactly have an all Pro line up there.

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 10:44:30 AM
Great stat, ELA.  And the 2017 opponents were all P5 teams save the first game.

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 10:58:55 AM
The clear trend today with RBs is to limit them to around 20 carries per game, with a few exceptions.  With 20 touches and 7 ypg, well, you do the math, a great game but not beyond the pale.

The "Pale" interesting, perhaps, is the area around Dublin, Ireland.

Is it more impressive to have 20 carries and 7 ypc or 35 carries and 4 ypc?  It depends.

What Sanders did in the League is tough to ignore.  He did not exactly have an all Pro line up there.


Barry did have 35 carries against a pretty good Nebraska defense that season, but averaged 5.4
I'd guess most games he had fewer carries and more yards.
Causes me to wonder how Penn State would have finished last season if Saquon Barkley would have doubled his rushing attempts from 16 per game to 32?
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 11:22:26 AM
Yeah, but the trend today is to utilize RBs much less than back then.  Herschel averaged 35 carries per game in 1981.

That would not happen today except in rare circumstance.

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on August 24, 2018, 11:52:36 AM
Barry did have 35 carries against a pretty good Nebraska defense that season, but averaged 5.4
I'd guess most games he had fewer carries and more yards.
Causes me to wonder how Penn State would have finished last season if Saquon Barkley would have doubled his rushing attempts from 16 per game to 32?
Double his rushing attempts?  You increase his carries by that much, he probably would have been just about the worst back in the Big Ten, if not the nation.  Temple wouldn't even have him at that point.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 11:57:47 AM
Yeah, but the trend today is to utilize RBs much less than back then.  Herschel averaged 35 carries per game in 1981.

That would not happen today except in rare circumstance.


I understand today's trend.  I'm not saying it's wrong.
What I'm saying is that it would be interesting to know what today's great backs such as Barkley would do given yesterday's carries. and if their teams would be anymore successful.
Obviously Herschel and Barry held up the entire season.  Today's backs have better nutrition and training and health monitoring than was available back in the 80s. 
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 11:59:39 AM
Double his rushing attempts?  You increase his carries by that much, he probably would have been just about the worst back in the Big Ten, if not the nation.  Temple wouldn't even have him at that point.
you don't believe in OrangeAfro's silly opinion that any RB's average will go down as number of carries goes up?
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on August 24, 2018, 12:05:18 PM
you don't believe in OrangeAfro's silly opinion that any RB's average will go down as number of carries goes up?
I think if you have some fluky high or low ypc on a very small number of carries, then obviously over time it will tend to trend towards the middle.  But given a large enough sample size, I would think you'd continue to produce at that level.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 12:21:00 PM
so, you feel Barkley wouldn't have held up physically or Penn St's offense simply wasn't built with the O-line and scheme to be successful running the ball 30 times a game?
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 12:37:23 PM
That is the question.  Of course, Herschel was 225 lbs running against 180 pound safeties and 220 pound LBs.

Barkely was up against folks akin to Roquan Smith, 

UGA had a nice rotation set up.  Imagine all those carries were given to Chubb (and he stayed healthy).  Do you think his YPC might go down?  I do.

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Mdot21 on August 24, 2018, 12:43:15 PM
I'm a Michigan homer. Desmond is deserving of a vote if not for a guy named....Barry Sanders.

This isn't even close. Barry Sanders is the greatest RB to ever a touch a football in college or pro. People who argue this are just biased or stupid, in my opinion.

Simply put- the guy could do things that no other player could do. Before or since. Period. Truly one of a kind. His ability as a runner was unparalleled. Unmatched in history. NOBODY had that kind of ability. I don't care if he started for one season. That one season was the greatest in the history of the sport. People act like he should've started day one- well he had a college and NFL HOF RB ahead of him in Thurman Thomas when he got to Oklahoma State. Talk about the greatest RB duo in college ever.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 12:46:13 PM
There was a drought of sorts in the NFL draft of running backs, but in the past 3-4 years we've seen some stellar RBs coming out.

And there are some still in college that look stellar also.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 12:56:15 PM
Statistically, the "best duo of running backs" in terms of career yardage just graduated and were drafted.

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Mdot21 on August 24, 2018, 01:00:10 PM
Statistically, the "best duo of running backs" in terms of career yardage just graduated and were drafted.
Lol.
Bet neither of them ends up in the NFL hall of fame.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 01:04:33 PM
Few end up in the HoF.  I think Sony Michel will do pretty well.  Chubb could with a good OL, but ...

It's a surprising stat for some that they put up so much yardage in college together.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Mdot21 on August 24, 2018, 01:08:36 PM
Few end up in the HoF.  I think Sony Michel will do pretty well.  Chubb could with a good OL, but ...

It's a surprising stat for some that they put up so much yardage in college together.
Michel's knee is bone on bone. He won't last long in the NFL most likely. Pats will get a few big years out of him and then he'll probably get cut a year or two early because that's what Belichik does.
Chubb plays for the Browns. Poor guy.
Yeah, no denying they were great in college together.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 03:23:52 PM
speaking of the Browns

surprising line in vegas is the Browns as 66-1 odds of winning the super bowl

could you all please each lend me a few bucks?  I'd like to amass 66 million to send to Vegas sports book, so that when the Browns are eliminated from winning the Super Bowl, the book will cut me a check for a cool mill.

I would think the line should be 660-1 for the Browns
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 04:18:22 PM
I had not heard about Michel's knee, tough break, so to speak.

Broken bones are not much of an issue in football these days it seems to me, the odd foot bone.

I pitched a game with a broken bone in my hand, left hand, couldn't grip the bat but could throw.

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 24, 2018, 06:59:42 PM
you don't believe in OrangeAfro's silly opinion that any RB's average will go down as number of carries goes up?
If my opinion is silly, then so is the entire field of statistics and probability.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 24, 2018, 07:04:02 PM
Best RB duos tend to degrade into ______ - amazing all-time guy and whoever his backup happened to be.  You'd take Barry Sanders and Player X over Chubb and Michel, because it would make sense to.




The better method would simply see who was the best/most productive backup RB ever, and go with that.  Some off the top of my head:
Bo Jackson/Fulwood, mid-80s Auburn
Neal Anderson/John L. Williams, mid-80s Florida
TJ Duckett and whoever the other guy was - MSU late 90s
McFadden and Felix Jones at Arkansas (yes, Jones' ypc would decrease if given more carries, no matter what "type" they were)
Any number of Wisconsin duos/trios, a la Fletcher and Moss
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 07:23:09 PM
So, who was the best backup running back in CFB history?

I suppose you might have to add situations where he wasn't a backup because he was in the game with the head dude, like Sinkwich and Trippi.  Neither was a backup.

Michel was a backup except when Chubb was hurt, but of course backup doesn't mean what it meant way back when your One played the whole game unless it was a blowout.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 07:27:34 PM

The better method would simply see who was the best/most productive backup RB ever, and go with that.  Some off the top of my head:

the pony express?
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 07:30:18 PM
So, who was the best backup running back in CFB history?
Barry Sanders backing up Thurman Thomas
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 07:32:58 PM
I was thinking career, but yes, Sanders as a backup would be a winner for a season.

No doubt.  Duh.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 24, 2018, 07:34:01 PM
But would you take Thomas/Sanders, with Thomas getting the bulk of the carries over Sanders & your grandma - with Sanders toting the rock most of the time?

I say no.  Sanders' numbers as a backup were pretty ho-hum.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on August 24, 2018, 07:40:52 PM
Yeah, not sure exactly how you measure it.  You can have names, but you are basing that off what the backup became as a starter.

Biakabatuka backing up Wheatley?

Eddie George backing up Raymont Harris?

I'm not sure how good those duos are, I don't remember George as a backup, and barely remember Tim B.  But on paper they look really nice.  From an era when guys earned their stripes,.whether or not they deserved more PT, you get more situations like this . Now you'd see a more even distribution of carries.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 24, 2018, 07:43:33 PM
I wouldn't rate the backup by what he'd eventually become, but by his performance in the given season.  Barry Sanders had 5.7 yards per carry as a backup.  Not special.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 07:55:07 PM
Interesting discussion.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 08:14:22 PM
I wouldn't rate the backup by what he'd eventually become, but by his performance in the given season.  Barry Sanders had 5.7 yards per carry as a backup.  Not special.
probably had too many carries
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 24, 2018, 08:44:04 PM
Your mom had too many carries....




Anywho, some other pairs:
Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown - Auburn
LenDale White and Reggie Bush - USC
Calvin Jones and Derek Brown - Nebraska
Lawrence Phillips and Ahman Green - Nebraska
Alabama had a run there with great pairs of RBs----Ingram/Richardson, Richardson/Lacy, Lacy/Yeldon
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 08:55:10 PM
maybe a distinction between starter and back up vs a pair of co-starters

example above 

Calvin Jones and Derek Brown were referenced as we-backs

Lawrence Phillips and Ahman Green - Lawrence was the starter

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 08:56:47 PM
In leading Nebraska to its seventh NCAA rushing title in 12 years, Brown and Jones totaled 2,213 yards, the second-best I-back combination in Nebraska`s rich rushing tradition.

Mike Rozier and Jeff Smith had 2,587 yards between them in 1983, but Rozier (2,148) carried most of the load and won the Heisman Trophy. With Brown and Jones, the duties have been truly shared, especially during the second half of the season.

``I think this may be the best group of I-backs we`ve had, definitely since I`ve been there,`` said running backs coach Frank Solich, in his 13th year at Nebraska.

Brown rushed for 1,313 yards and 14 touchdowns to earn first-team All-Big Eight and third-team All-America honors. But Jones made bigger headlines by rushing for 294 yards and six touchdowns (both school records) on 29 carries against Kansas.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 09:03:07 PM
Your mom had too many carries....

perhaps she was a Mike Rozier fan.
at the time of this list December of 1991
All-time rushing -  Years - Yards - Att - Avg. TD
Mike Rozier 1981-83 4,780 668 7.16 49
Ken Clark 1987-89 3,037 494 6.15 29
I.M. Hipp 1977-79 2,814 495 5.68 21
Keith Jones 1984-87 2,488 398 6.25 32
Rick Berns 1976-78 2,449 440 5.56 28
Roger Craig 1979-82 2,446 407 6.01 26
Jeff Kinney 1969-71 2,244 545 4.11 29
Doug DuBose 1982-85 2,205 362 6.09 16
Bobby Reynolds 1950-52 2,196 378 5.80 24
Jarvis Redwine 1979-80 2,161 304 7.10 17
________________________________________
the back with the highest average had the most attempts - by far
the back with the fewest attempts had the 2nd highest average
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 24, 2018, 11:50:41 PM
Yeah, it doesn't work for a bunch of different RB at different times.  It's more of a trend thing.

Also, blindly citing Nebraska RBs ypc numbers is silly as it ignores the ability of the QB's skill at the option.  The '83 offense was an all-timer, not only because of Rozier's ability, but also because of Gill's and an actual passing threat with Fryar.




If you really want to look at what I've said and understand it, I stand by the posts I made about what made Melvin Gordon special.  And that statistically, if a coach wants to eek out every last yard he can, his prominent ball-carriers' ypc averages should be nearly equal, as dictated by their number of carries.  
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2018, 07:55:31 AM
Few would argue that Michel and Chubb are the best pair of RBs ever of course, but they did put up the most career yards, which is notable I think.  They also are #2 and #3 at UGA career.  That isn't easy sharing the load.  It is unusual today that draftable RBs like them stay four years of course, so that record may stand for a while.

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 25, 2018, 08:43:11 AM
Yeah, it doesn't work for a bunch of different RB at different times.  It's more of a trend thing. Cool, so it doesn't work

Also, blindly citing Nebraska RBs ypc numbers is silly as it ignores the ability of the QB's skill at the option.  The '83 offense was an all-timer, not only because of Rozier's ability, but also because of Gill's and an actual passing threat with Fryar.  Cool, so it's silly because of many variables in an offense




If you really want to look at what I've said and understand it, I stand by the posts I made about what made Melvin Gordon special.  And that statistically, if a coach wants to eek out every last yard he can, his prominent ball-carriers' ypc averages should be nearly equal, as dictated by their number of carries.  I understand your point about sharing carries via YPC, but coaches aren't interested in every last yard, they are interested in converting 3rd downs, scoring, and winning.
I enjoy stirring the pot ;)
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2018, 09:01:47 AM
"A trend thing" DOES work, if it's a trend, or correlation, or tendency, just not all the time.

Few things in life have a correlation coefficient of 1.0.  That does not mean regressions are of no value.

A roulette wheel that is seriously unbalanced and hits red 5 10% of the time is useful information to a bettor even though it doesn't happen very often.  It's often enough, and then some.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 25, 2018, 09:28:08 AM
how about starter/backup.....81&82.  Rozier backed up Craig, then Rozier started and craig moved to fullback on some formations

Heisman trophy winner and NFL hall of famer

Mike Rozier 1981-83 4,780 668 7.16 49
Roger Craig 1979-82 2,446 407 6.01 26
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 25, 2018, 09:29:49 AM
and I hate to bring it up, but the Sooners obviously had some terrific tandems

who backed up Billy Sims?

Marcus Dupree as a frosh backed up somebody
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2018, 09:37:13 AM
It is fun and interesting to think about players from whenever back a few decades.

I remember as a kid thinking Earl Campbell was incredible, a man among boys, an oft used phrase.  OJ of course has a sullied character but he was a great RB.  There was "Charlie Choo-Choo Justice at UNC, who merits note because of a great nickname, and the "Galloping Ghost" who I imagine few of us every watched in real time.

Which brings to my mind a question, who was the very earliest "great" running back, Grange?  Were there players of note before him that are recalled today?  It's almost as if the concept sprang from nothing, though I'd guess I simply am ignorant of the candidates.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2018, 09:41:12 AM
As Grange never won a Heisman, perhaps he is over rated.

Ha.

In his 20-game college career, Grange ran for 3,362 yards, caught 14 passes for 253 yards, and completed 40 of 82 passes for 575 yards. Of his 31 touchdowns, 16 were from at least 20 yards, with nine from more than 50 yards.[10] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Grange#cite_note-ESPN-11) He scored at least one touchdown in every game he played but one, a loss to Nebraska in his senior season. He earned All-America (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-America) recognition three consecutive years, and appeared on the cover of Time (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_(magazine)) on October 5, 1925.[10] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Grange#cite_note-ESPN-11) His number 77 was retired by the University of Illinois.[note 2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Grange#cite_note-16)

If we extrapolate his numbers out to 50 games they look pretty decent.  Was he a run away winner for #77, I forget?
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on August 25, 2018, 09:44:30 AM
Ugly completion percentage.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2018, 09:46:26 AM
Ugly completion percentage.
Perhaps not when you consider he was throwing to himself.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 25, 2018, 10:07:03 AM
In 1925 Nebraska was led by new coach, Elmer Ernest (Ernie) Bearg. Bearg had previously coached at Illinois, as Zuppke's top assistant, and had coached Grange at Illinois. Bearg readily recognized that the Husker team he had inherited had to be built around its star, Ed Weir, a tackle on offense, who occasionally carried the ball. Bearg spent most of the pre-season moving players to various new positions, all with the goal of stopping Red Grange. "Stop Grange and you stop Illinois," he exhorted the team. The team listened.

Ed Weir was listed as left tackle on defense, but would line up a yard or so behind the line of scrimmage and with an unusually quick first step, charge across the line and into the opposing backfield ("red dogging"). Often enough he was able to reach Grange before he had a chance to get started. That day the Cornhuskers held Grange to 62 yards rushing on 22 carries. Weir recovered a fumble that day and was credited with tackling ball carriers for 14 yards losses.

Reporting on the game that day, the Associated Press wrote, "Grange left the game in the fourth quarter broken and crushed. As the Illini star walked to the sideline, covered with mud from head to foot, tears gathered in his eyes and he fell into the waiting arms of his comrades." The Huskers won that game 14-0, holding Grange without a TD for the second straight year.

https://www.mccookgazette.com/story/1832401.html (https://www.mccookgazette.com/story/1832401.html)
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2018, 10:24:28 AM
Great stuff.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on August 25, 2018, 10:26:45 AM
Perhaps not when you consider he was throwing to himself.
So he was throwing to one of the all time greats and still <50%?  Even worse.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Mdot21 on August 25, 2018, 10:51:40 AM
As Grange never won a Heisman, perhaps he is over rated.

Ha.

In his 20-game college career, Grange ran for 3,362 yards, caught 14 passes for 253 yards, and completed 40 of 82 passes for 575 yards. Of his 31 touchdowns, 16 were from at least 20 yards, with nine from more than 50 yards.[10] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Grange#cite_note-ESPN-11) He scored at least one touchdown in every game he played but one, a loss to Nebraska in his senior season. He earned All-America (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-America) recognition three consecutive years, and appeared on the cover of Time (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_(magazine)) on October 5, 1925.[10] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Grange#cite_note-ESPN-11) His number 77 was retired by the University of Illinois.[note 2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Grange#cite_note-16)

If we extrapolate his numbers out to 50 games they look pretty decent.  Was he a run away winner for #77, I forget?
yeah and if he played college football today or even in the 80's when Barry Sanders did he'd absolutely suck.
Whereas if the winner of this poll- Sanders- played back then he'd run for oh, 8,000 yards and 100 touchdowns a season.

Hall of Fame RB Curtis Martin made a great point about Barry Sanders. He said it doesn't matter what era- you put him in todays game or in 1920- he'd still be the best RB. Can't really say that about any other RB. His ability to stop and start and accelerate through his cuts is something we've never seen before or since. And despite his short stature at 5'8 he was built as powerfully as they come. His calf muscles, thighs and legs were like tree trunks. Many a defender got their arms ripped off trying to arm tackle him.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2018, 12:19:02 PM
Someone like Herschel running in 1926 would have raised a lot of eyebrows.

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: ELA on August 25, 2018, 12:43:19 PM
yeah and if he played college football today or even in the 80's when Barry Sanders did he'd absolutely suck.
Whereas if the winner of this poll- Sanders- played back then he'd run for oh, 8,000 yards and 100 touchdowns a season.

Hall of Fame RB Curtis Martin made a great point about Barry Sanders. He said it doesn't matter what era- you put him in todays game or in 1920- he'd still be the best RB. Can't really say that about any other RB. His ability to stop and start and accelerate through his cuts is something we've never seen before or since. And despite his short stature at 5'8 he was built as powerfully as they come. His calf muscles, thighs and legs were like tree trunks. Many a defender got their arms ripped off trying to arm tackle him.
Yes, but so would Tom Harmon, and you voted for him, so...
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2018, 01:00:28 PM
"A trend thing" DOES work, if it's a trend, or correlation, or tendency, just not all the time.

Few things in life have a correlation coefficient of 1.0.  That does not mean regressions are of no value.

A roulette wheel that is seriously unbalanced and hits red 5 10% of the time is useful information to a bettor even though it doesn't happen very often.  It's often enough, and then some.
Right.  If you note that something happens 99 times out of 100, people will then dwell on the one time it doesn't hold true. 
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2018, 01:07:56 PM
This Barry Sanders worship is odd.


Old-school coaches would boot Sanders off the field for not simply taking the hand-off and hitting the hole hard.  They'd bitch and moan about his dancing around.  Ricky Williams would dominate any era...so would Brown, Gordon, Simpson, Herschel, Emmitt, Payton, Bo, et al.



If you put Herschel or Campbell at tailback in the 20s, people would chastise you for lining up your nose guard in the backfield.  But again, I don't think old-timey coaches would put up with the fact that Sanders (in his NFL career) had the most carries for no gain or a loss in history.  It'd be the principle of the thing.  Get to the hole ASAP and take your 3 yards and a cloud of dust, young man!
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2018, 01:36:09 PM
I think it true in reverse that a great running back from circa 1940 would not be one today.  Charlie Trippi was a great athlete in his day and perhaps could have made a good safety.  Today, every started on a ranked P5 team is a great athlete.  A few are stupendous.  Back in the day, I bet half the teams would be just OK athletes aside from the very top teams.

And maybe the very top level teams were carried by having 2-3 great athletes for that day and the rest were so so.

I don't know of course.

I was on a volleyball team with some of the UGA football players of 1973 and they were somewhat larger than normal guys, not obviously more athletic than me at volleyball.  Everyone had to take PE back then for two years.  The tight end was Richard Appleby if I recollect rightly and he and I were about equally matched at that sport.  He was a good deal better built and I was an inch or so taller, but he was not somehow a noticeable stud like a TE would be today.

https://www.redandblack.com/sports/how-one-year-and-five-men-changed-the-course-of/article_1a3e6866-f947-11e6-bc58-fbbd946f085a.html

Horace King was in that PE class also.  Brings back memories.  They were just regular guys, except they were black, and that made things a bit different except that we played volleyball and nobody cared about your skin color.

Hard to imagine college football without African American players.

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Mdot21 on August 27, 2018, 12:08:38 PM
This Barry Sanders worship is odd.


Old-school coaches would boot Sanders off the field for not simply taking the hand-off and hitting the hole hard.  They'd bitch and moan about his dancing around.  Ricky Williams would dominate any era...so would Brown, Gordon, Simpson, Herschel, Emmitt, Payton, Bo, et al.



If you put Herschel or Campbell at tailback in the 20s, people would chastise you for lining up your nose guard in the backfield.  But again, I don't think old-timey coaches would put up with the fact that Sanders (in his NFL career) had the most carries for no gain or a loss in history.  It'd be the principle of the thing.  Get to the hole ASAP and take your 3 yards and a cloud of dust, young man!
Ah. I see what's going on. Gator fan who thinks Emmitt Smith is in the same universe as Barry Sanders. That always brings out the lulz.
You do realize that Barry Sanders rushed for 2,850 yards- averaged 7.8 YPC, and rushed for 42 touchdowns in 12 games, right? Most college players on good teams now are playing 13 or more games and they still can't come close to what he did in 12. Barry Sanders total yards from scrimmage in 1988- 3,471 yards. Total touchdowns? 44.
Barry Sanders never had the greatest OL of all-time in the NFL like Emmitt Smith. He never played with a Hall of Fame QB like Troy Aikman. Never played with a Hall of Fame WR like Michael Irvin. His OL was mediocre to terrible for the entire tenure of his NFL career. His QB's were absolute hot garbage his entire career. Rodney Peete, Bob Gagliano, Eric Hipple, Andre Ware, Eric Kramer, Dave Krieg, Scott Mitchell, Charlie Batch. Kinda sad when a 38 year old Dave Krieg who he only had for 1 year was probably the best QB he ever played with. These are the QB's directing his offense. Played with some pretty good receivers like Herman Moore and Brett Perriman, but neither of them were close to the level of impact player that Michael Irvin was.
You can say what you want about the most carries for no gains or a loss in NFL history- but he had to do a lot on his own just to make a 5 yard gain sometimes. And despite this- he still averaged over 5 yards per carry for his NFL career- Barry and only the great Jim Brown are the only backs in NFL history with over 1,000 carries to average 5+ YPC. He AVERAGED 1,526.9 rushing yards per season. His lowest rushing total was 1,100+ yards- a season in which he missed 5 games with a leg injury. He ran for 1,100+ in 10 straight NFL seasons. He won the NFL rushing crown 4 times. Could've very easily been 6 times if he stayed in games just to chase those records. Instead he'd take himself out of games at the end of the season if the Lions were up comfortably. And he wasn't running through mack truck sized holes in the pros like Emmitt Smith. And when he did get big holes he was gone for 40+. Holes that Emmitt had that he'd get 15 yards out of- when Barry had those kind of holes he was getting 40+ easy. They just honestly were not in the same universe. Barry Sanders ability as a runner was just not of this planet.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2018, 12:33:30 PM
Sanders was incredible to me also.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Mdot21 on August 27, 2018, 01:01:28 PM
Sanders was incredible to me also.
he is the most incredible player in any sport to watch probably ever. How many players in any sport have a top 50 highlight reel? Lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBhn1wMyzV4&t=18s
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Mdot21 on August 27, 2018, 01:17:39 PM
this is one of his greatest plays ever that no one talks about in my opinion.

Rod Woodson just might be the greatest all-around DB to ever play the game. Had Barry dead to rights and Barry escaped. Not only did he escape he made Rod Woodson tear his ACL while Woodson was tackling nothing but air.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqFksT8wvXY
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: bayareabadger on August 27, 2018, 02:17:15 PM
perhaps she was a Mike Rozier fan.
at the time of this list December of 1991
All-time rushing -  Years - Yards - Att - Avg. TD
Mike Rozier 1981-83 4,780 668 7.16 49
Ken Clark 1987-89 3,037 494 6.15 29
I.M. Hipp 1977-79 2,814 495 5.68 21
Keith Jones 1984-87 2,488 398 6.25 32
Rick Berns 1976-78 2,449 440 5.56 28
Roger Craig 1979-82 2,446 407 6.01 26
Jeff Kinney 1969-71 2,244 545 4.11 29
Doug DuBose 1982-85 2,205 362 6.09 16
Bobby Reynolds 1950-52 2,196 378 5.80 24
Jarvis Redwine 1979-80 2,161 304 7.10 17
________________________________________
the back with the highest average had the most attempts - by far
the back with the fewest attempts had the 2nd highest average
I was staring at this chart and it occurred to me some of it is self fulfilling. If you’re gonna be high on the rushin list, your carries need to be high, and your YPC need to be high. 
So if we look at carries through 1991 (assuming I used excel right), four of the top six averaged 4.5 or fewer. Three were at 4.3 or worse. 
My assumption is the data will always be to a degree to noisy, but it seemed like this might not be the most useful approach to it. 
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2018, 02:47:05 PM
number of attempts and Average per rush were in bold to show there's no correlation between a high number of attempts and a low average per rush

for example, Rozier had the highest number of attempts by far, but also had the highest average

another example, Reynolds was on the low side for attempts, but had the lowest average

true, if you are tracking total yards, you either need a very high number of attempts or a very high average.  Having both of course leads to the highest total.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 27, 2018, 06:45:17 PM
Ah. I see what's going on. Gator fan who thinks Emmitt Smith is in the same universe as Barry Sanders. That always brings out the lulz.
You do realize that Barry Sanders rushed for 2,850 yards- averaged 7.8 YPC, and rushed for 42 touchdowns in 12 games, right? Most college players on good teams now are playing 13 or more games and they still can't come close to what he did in 12. Barry Sanders total yards from scrimmage in 1988- 3,471 yards. Total touchdowns? 44.
Barry Sanders never had the greatest OL of all-time in the NFL like Emmitt Smith. He never played with a Hall of Fame QB like Troy Aikman. Never played with a Hall of Fame WR like Michael Irvin. His OL was mediocre to terrible for the entire tenure of his NFL career. His QB's were absolute hot garbage his entire career. Rodney Peete, Bob Gagliano, Eric Hipple, Andre Ware, Eric Kramer, Dave Krieg, Scott Mitchell, Charlie Batch. Kinda sad when a 38 year old Dave Krieg who he only had for 1 year was probably the best QB he ever played with. These are the QB's directing his offense. Played with some pretty good receivers like Herman Moore and Brett Perriman, but neither of them were close to the level of impact player that Michael Irvin was.
You can say what you want about the most carries for no gains or a loss in NFL history- but he had to do a lot on his own just to make a 5 yard gain sometimes. And despite this- he still averaged over 5 yards per carry for his NFL career- Barry and only the great Jim Brown are the only backs in NFL history with over 1,000 carries to average 5+ YPC. He AVERAGED 1,526.9 rushing yards per season. His lowest rushing total was 1,100+ yards- a season in which he missed 5 games with a leg injury. He ran for 1,100+ in 10 straight NFL seasons. He won the NFL rushing crown 4 times. Could've very easily been 6 times if he stayed in games just to chase those records. Instead he'd take himself out of games at the end of the season if the Lions were up comfortably. And he wasn't running through mack truck sized holes in the pros like Emmitt Smith. And when he did get big holes he was gone for 40+. Holes that Emmitt had that he'd get 15 yards out of- when Barry had those kind of holes he was getting 40+ easy. They just honestly were not in the same universe. Barry Sanders ability as a runner was just not of this planet.
Wow.  Breathe.  You're debating no one.  
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 27, 2018, 06:47:31 PM
number of attempts and Average per rush were in bold to show there's no correlation between a high number of attempts and a low average per rush

for example, Rozier had the highest number of attempts by far, but also had the highest average

another example, Reynolds was on the low side for attempts, but had the lowest average

true, if you are tracking total yards, you either need a very high number of attempts or a very high average.  Having both of course leads to the highest total.
You keep showing that you don't understand the point.  Why not seek to understand?
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2018, 09:02:53 PM
your statement was that if backs like Rozier had more carries their average would eventually go down
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 27, 2018, 11:13:30 PM
your statement was that if backs like Rozier had more carries their average would eventually go down
Do you believe his YPC would remain as high if he had 500 carries?
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2018, 11:40:27 PM
yes, he had 668 carries at Nebraska

I would guess his final 168 carries were about the same average as his first 500, maybe better

in 82 as a junior Rozier had 242 attempts for a 7.0 average

in 83 as a senior he had 275 attempts for a 7.8 yard average
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 27, 2018, 11:51:26 PM
sigh.  500 carries in a single season.  
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2018, 07:11:08 AM
I would look at this as the percentage of running plays where X is the ball carrier.  Obviously, if a team stops passing and only runs, their YPC is likely to go down.  If they switch off between X and Y running the ball, I'm not sure that means that both X and Y will have better YPC than they would if only X had those carries, presuming X does not get hurt or dinged up.

A RB who is not in sufficient physical condition to carry the ball 35 times a game would of course see his YPC drop.  One who was might not see it.  So, this could be running back dependent.  The knock I always heard on Bo was that he would tire and have to come out of a game.

ushing & Receiving
 

[th][/th]
[th][/th]
[th]Rushing[/th]
[th]Receiving[/th]
[th]Scrimmage[/th]
[th]Year[/th]
[th]School[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Class[/th]
[th]Pos[/th]
[th]G[/th]
[th]Att[/th]
[th]Yds[/th]
[th]Avg[/th]
[th]TD[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Yds[/th]
[th]Avg[/th]
[th]TD[/th]
[th]Plays[/th]
[th]Yds[/th]
[th]Avg[/th]
[th]TD[/th]
[th]1982 (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/1982.html)[/th]
Auburn (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/1982.html)SEC (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sec/1982.html)RB111278296.5956412.801328936.89
[th]1983 (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/1983.html)[/th]
Auburn (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/1983.html)SEC (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sec/1983.html)RB1115812137.71213735.6217112867.514
[th]1984 (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/1984.html)[/th]
Auburn (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/1984.html)SEC (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sec/1984.html)RB12874755.5546215.50915375.95
[th]1985 (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/1985.html)[/th]
Auburn (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/1985.html)SEC (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sec/1985.html)RB1127817866.41747318.3028218596.617
[th]Career[/th]
Auburn (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/)65043036.6432627210.5267645756.845


That 278 carries his last year is a strong number these days, but not that many for those days.  And for the inevitable point of comparison:


Rushing & Receiving
 
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[th][/th]
[th][/th]
[th]Rushing[/th]
[th]Receiving[/th]
[th]Scrimmage[/th]
[th]Year[/th]
[th]School[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Class[/th]
[th]Pos[/th]
[th]G[/th]
[th]Att[/th]
[th]Yds[/th]
[th]Avg[/th]
[th]TD[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Yds[/th]
[th]Avg[/th]
[th]TD[/th]
[th]Plays[/th]
[th]Yds[/th]
[th]Avg[/th]
[th]TD[/th]
[th]1980 (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/1980.html)[/th]
Georgia (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/georgia/1980.html)SEC (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sec/1980.html)RB1127416165.91577010.0028116866.015
[th]1981 (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/1981.html)[/th]
Georgia (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/georgia/1981.html)SEC (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sec/1981.html)RB1138518914.91814846.0239919754.920
[th]1982 (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/1982.html)[/th]
Georgia (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/georgia/1982.html)SEC (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sec/1982.html)RB1133517525.21658917.8134018415.417
[th]Career[/th]
Georgia (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/georgia/)99452595.349262439.33102055025.452
[color][size][font]

Herschel's YPC did drop with more carries, but some portion of that was the lack of any passing game in 1983 after Belue had retired.  The 1981 team had Belue who could pass pretty well but was accustomed to leaning on Walker, and he was injured early in 1982 in practice and barely played in the first game.



[/font][/size][/color]
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2018, 07:11:41 AM
Well, that looked good when I posted it and the formatting blew up, my bad.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/herschel-walker-1.html

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: bayareabadger on August 28, 2018, 09:22:43 AM
number of attempts and Average per rush were in bold to show there's no correlation between a high number of attempts and a low average per rush

for example, Rozier had the highest number of attempts by far, but also had the highest average

another example, Reynolds was on the low side for attempts, but had the lowest average

true, if you are tracking total yards, you either need a very high number of attempts or a very high average.  Having both of course leads to the highest total.
Among a set of backs who both have high YPC and high carries numbers at a school that doesn't overload its backs, yes, this is true. It's also true that a lot of Nebraska's highest ever YPC guys had low carries number and top carries guys didn't have robust YPC numbers. 
Of course, we're using kind of funny numbers to get there. Career numbers are ... weird to say the least. They measure opportunity as much as anything, and in college cut off as a good player is still in the midst of his ascent. Then there's the reality of players who run well (often generating good YPC) get more work. There seems to be an upper limit of carries that seem wise in a game, a season and I suppose a game-in, game-out basis. Some buck this trend. Many don't.

Then there's the architecture of opportunity. Looking at wingbacks in flexbone systems, it seems likely being the pitch man on the option yields big-play opportunities. Nebraska I-backs had that. Cincy mentioned the ups and downs for Hershel, but we can look at a more recent back. Le'veon Bell was better than a 4.7 YPC back. But it'll never be 100 percent clear, did his 382 carries heavy usage factor in, or did the factors that lowered his YPC (bad passing game) drive up his carries.

And then we must ask, is YPC THAT good a number to use? Irving Fryer averaged 12 and 13 YPC his last two years, and he didn't get to 25 carries. It tends to favor explosiveness a bit more than consistency, which is a factor (is one 80-yard runs and three no gains better than four 20-yard runs?). 

What's also interesting is that Nebraska has actually been to a degree practicing the philosophy of tamping down carries for more effectiveness forever. Think of this: No Huskers runner, by NCAA stats, has averaged 24 carries. That's kind of amazing. Nebraska had some great backs, but they never rode one to that level? Seems like a case of all the pieces fit. 
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2018, 09:28:15 AM
I was reading an article about D'Andre Swift last year that noted he had a gaudy YPC with fewer carriers of course than Chubb/Michel, but that he also played more downs against defenses that were gassed.  Michel noted he was glad Chubb started because the first few carries were the toughest (he was joking, but correct).

Starting is different from cleaning up.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 28, 2018, 08:20:02 PM
It seems like someone doubting what I've been saying seems to think RBs are machines that just keep going at the same rate, regardless of how many carries they get.  This is obviously false, and it's not even the point I want to make here.

In doing a ton of research for my college football game, I could not believe how little even the best RBs carried the ball, as % of the team's total carries.  The normal ceiling is around 60%.  Beforehand, I would've guessed something like 80% or so, at least for the great backs.  
RBs only carry the ball up to 60% of the time because they're people, and people get tired.  So even against a tired defense, if you kept feeding the ball to the same guy over and over and over, his YPC would obviously decrease.



Does the 60% approximation surprise anyone esle?
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 28, 2018, 08:21:47 PM
On Mike Rozier:

There is a reason he never had a 300-carry season.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2018, 09:29:21 PM
Given that most offenses endeavor to be somewhere around 60:40 run:pass, that figure does not surprise me at all.

There are 72 plays per game in CFB, or so I discovered.  Sixty percent of that is about 42 plays.  Nobody is going to hand the ball off to the same guy 42 times in a game unless the guy is superman or something.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1981/11/08/walker-rallies-georgia-past-florida/94afcb4b-69b8-4802-a1c0-ac503d1e7e74/?utm_term=.f9b9e58d26ae

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 28, 2018, 09:31:52 PM
Ah, but why not?  According to some, said RB would just march on, at his 7.3 yards per carry clip all day long....
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2018, 09:52:28 PM
Some RBs might on occasion.  Most offenses are going to spread the ball out these days obviously.

I don't think it's a good plan today when LBs go 245 and safeties go 225.

Reality here is probably somewhere in the middle rather than one argument OR the other.  There is no doubt at some point, RBs do get tired and less effective and need a breather at least.  They also get dinged up in a game.  At the same time, going from 10 carries to 20 carries a game is not going to affect most backs.

Some might level out between 20 and 30 and then start to degrade.

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 28, 2018, 11:01:01 PM
On Mike Rozier:

There is a reason he never had a 300-carry season.
not just one reason, many reasons - Rozier's career
1981 - Bates at fullback, Gill at QB
R. Craig      att 173    yrd   1060    avg 6.1   
M. Rozier     att 151    yrd   943     avg 6.2   
P. Bates       att 94     yrd   555    avg 5.9   
T. Gill        att 76     yrd    263  avg  3.5   
this shows 500 of the 661 total rushes
So, since Rozier had the better average, give him all 324 carries?
1982 - Wilkening fullback, Smith I-back, Gill QB, Fryer wingback
Rozier      att 242         1689    avg 7.0    
Craig       att 119           586    avg  4.9    
Smith       att  56           569    avg 10.2    
Gill        att 101           497     avg 4.9    
Wilkening   att  80        413     avg  5.2    
Fryar       att  20           245    avg  12.3    
So, Osborne was brilliant, most carries went to Rozier, better average than Craig.  But, remember Craig was playing some fullback.  Obviously, the 3rd string Smith playing in mop up duty when the defense had taken out starters should have had 300+ carries?
1983 - Schellen fullback, Gill QB, Fryer wing
M. Rozier   att 275       2148    avg  7.8     
Gill            att 109          531    avg  4.9     
Schellen     att 77          450    avg  5.8     
J. Smith      att 78         439    avg  5.6     
Fryar        att  23          318   avg   13.8     
there ya go, Osborne is s genius, greatest offense, set many NCAA records, BECAUSE????
Rozier had the best average AND the highest number of carries
one reason Rozier didn't have 300+ carries in 1983?  Osborne liked to pull the starters when up by 4 TDs.
halftime score - final score:

Penn St. 21-0 final 44-6              Rozier 16 carries
Wyoming 42-3 final 56-20           Rozier 19 carries
Minnesota 42-10 final 84-13        Rozier 15 carries
UCLA 14-10  final 42-10              Rozier 26 carries
Syracuse 35-0 final 63-7             Rozier 19 carries
Oklahoma St. trailed 7-10 final 14-10  Rozier 25 carries
Missouri 20-13 final 34-13                 Rozier 24 carries
Colorado 14-12 final 69-19  48 point 3rd quarter, missed an extra point
Kansas St. 38-5 final 51-25              Rozier 23 carries
Iowa St.  35-14 final 72-29               Rozier 26 carries
Kansas 41-0 final 67-13        Rozier 31 carries   At halftime, Rozier had 230 yards and all of his TDs (he had the fourth TD 5:33 into the second quarter)
Oklahoma 14-14 final 28-21   Rozier 32 carries

Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 28, 2018, 11:49:31 PM
not just one reason, many reasons - Rozier's career
1981 - Bates at fullback, Gill at QB
R. Craig      att 173    yrd   1060    avg 6.1  
M. Rozier     att 151    yrd   943     avg 6.2  
P. Bates       att 94     yrd   555    avg 5.9  
T. Gill        att 76     yrd    263  avg  3.5  
this shows 500 of the 661 total rushes
So, since Rozier had the better average, give him all 324 carries?
1982 - Wilkening fullback, Smith I-back, Gill QB, Fryer wingback
Rozier      att 242         1689    avg 7.0    
Craig       att 119           586    avg  4.9    
Smith       att  56           569    avg 10.2    
Gill        att 101           497     avg 4.9    
Wilkening   att  80        413     avg  5.2    
Fryar       att  20           245    avg  12.3    
So, Osborne was brilliant, most carries went to Rozier, better average than Craig.  But, remember Craig was playing some fullback.  Obviously, the 3rd string Smith playing in mop up duty when the defense had taken out starters should have had 300+ carries?



Let's focus on your absurd comments.
1981 - both top backs' YPC were nearly even.  This is ideal.  I'm not sure why you decide to mouth off here, it makes it look like you genuinely don't understand, and not just being a horse's ass.

1982 - If you have a backup averaging 10+ YPC, why not give him more carries?  The whole point of all of this is that I'm saying if you give him more carries, his YPC will decrease, because he's not a genuine 10 YPC-quality RB.  No one is.  But if he does, somehow, maintain his inflated average, why then those carries you're taking from Rozier are netting you more yards, and you have nothing to complain about anyway.

How is this still unclear???
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2018, 07:45:30 AM
Would folks agree that the jump from 10 carries to 20 would probably not have much impact on YPC?

The jump from 20 to 3- would start to have impact, and to 40 or more would have impact on nearly every back in history?
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2018, 11:26:20 AM
Let's focus on your absurd comments.
1981 - both top backs' YPC were nearly even.  This is ideal.  I'm not sure why you decide to mouth off here, it makes it look like you genuinely don't understand, and not just being a horse's ass.

1982 - If you have a backup averaging 10+ YPC, why not give him more carries?  The whole point of all of this is that I'm saying if you give him more carries, his YPC will decrease, because he's not a genuine 10 YPC-quality RB.  No one is.  But if he does, somehow, maintain his inflated average, why then those carries you're taking from Rozier are netting you more yards, and you have nothing to complain about anyway.

How is this still unclear???
oh, I'm certainly just being a horse's ass
1982 with the 3rd string guy averaging 10, why not give him more carries?  You answered your own question, because his average would go down.  #rd string guy, as I explained was going against the 2nd string defense, running behind the Husker's 2nd string O-line which was still awesome.  The game had long since been decided and there wasn't much defense being played.

If the first string guy would have had those extra 10 carries it's almost a sure thing that his average would have gone UP, not down.

how is this still unclear to you?
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2018, 11:32:27 AM
Would folks agree that the jump from 10 carries to 20 would probably not have much impact on YPC?

The jump from 20 to 3- would start to have impact, and to 40 or more would have impact on nearly every back in history?
yes, from a basic level this seems logical.
but, there are just too many variables.  
How many backs in history have averaged 40 carries per game?  Probably a small sample size.
the 40 carries per game might not have much impact the first 3 or 4 games of the season, but yes, by the 10th or 11th game it certainly would wear them down.
Then there are those backs in history such as John Riggins "The diesel" that seem to get stronger and get larger gains as their carries increase and the game goes longer.  Because the defense wears down and the back and O-line sense this.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2018, 11:34:33 AM
my point is simple

JUST adding a few more carries per game or even doubling the carries doesn't assure the average per rush will go down.  It's not a mathematical certainty.

there are many variables
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 29, 2018, 07:59:38 PM
my point is simple

JUST adding a few more carries per game or even doubling the carries doesn't assure the average per rush will go down.  It's not a mathematical certainty.

there are many variables
But a strong trend is not undone by 1 or 2 exceptions.  Regression to the mean as volume increases is a statistically valid thing.  Yes, there are tons of variables, but even still, it's valid.
And I'd like some evidence on the John Riggins claim before I believe it.  All he had to do was break a long run in a few different 4th quarters to get a reputation like that.  I'd be stunned if the stats backed it up.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2018, 11:18:46 PM
well, let's see your stats

I've shown stats for Rozier and Husker backs up to 1991 that support my side

I'm sure Riggins NFL stats are available as are other power backs that seemed to wear down defenses.  Earl Campbell?  Jim Brown? Emmitt Smith had about as many carries as anyone in the NFL.

in 1995 Emmitt had his 2nd most carries in an NFL season with 377, that season he also had his 2nd highest yards per carry in his NFL career at 4.7

in 2012 one of my favorites, Adrian Peterson, had his 2nd most carries with 348, that season he also had his highest yards per carry at 6.0.
in 2014 Peterson had his lowest number of carries in a season with 21.  He averaged 3.6
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2018, 01:00:20 AM
The way you're comparing season to season, you're allowing the variables to dominate the data.  Why would a RB with a different OL blocking for him and a different OC calling plays provide valid data to compare???  Plus, when bringing up an NFL career, the normal productivity aging bell curve to boot.

Look within a season for one team.  Just use that to wrap your head around the idea before you start with multi-year, multi-team stuff.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2018, 01:06:13 AM
Here's my data, copied from the "Best #25" thread:
Taking from the lists, and noting the leader at every 100 carry benchmark:
1000+ Dayne, WIS (5.8)
900+  Griffin, OSU (6.0)
800+  Williams, TEX (6.3)
700+  L.James ORE (6.6)
600+  Gordon WIS (7.8)
500+  Gordon WIS (7.8)
400+  Love STAN ties Gordon, but Gordon has more carries.  We'll see what he does this coming season.
300+  Weatherspoon (HOU) 8.2

*Gordon is the only repeat name on the list, and with only one guy tying him, no one surpasses his YPC for 300 carries, which is nuts.

*Also of note, look at how the YPC increases when you go down 100 carries - 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 1.2, 0.4.  Gordon's increase is 4x the average of the other benchmarks.  There is a very good statistical case for Gordon as the best ever.
Title: Re: Best #21
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2018, 01:14:04 AM
This is more macro-YPC analysis here.  No one in college football history averaged over 8.2 ypc with 400+ carries.  And no one averaged over 7.8 ypc with 700+ carries.  Do you see the trend line?  The carries go up, the highest ypc average goes down.  It is a trend line - a mostly-horizontal, slanted line.  There would be dots all around it, but the center shows a definite trend.  

Now, if you look at the above post, you can pick one guy out - let's say Ricky Williams.  Just as an example.  He has the highest ypc average for any RB with 800+ carries.  Great.  Now, if you wanted to make the claim he was better than Archie Griffin, you'd suggest that with 100 more carries, Williams would maintain a ypc lead on Griffin WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING it would decrease from 6.3.  His ypc would not magically have increased with more carries during his career.  And even if his ypc only dropped to 6.2, you could still claim him superior to Griffin, citing his ypc advantage (6.2 to 6.0, given the same number of carries (900+)).  

Now, these 100-even carry lines are totally arbitrary, and we may get different players listed if we used 350+, 450+, etc.  That doesn't matter, the point still holds true.  The player with the highest YPC ever at 350+ carries WILL 100% HAVE A HIGHER YPC AVERAGE THAN THE RB WITH THE HIGHEST YPC at 850+ CARRIES.

And THAT is the point.