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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: LittlePig on November 10, 2024, 08:12:04 AM

Title: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: LittlePig on November 10, 2024, 08:12:04 AM
These are my Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11. 

1.  Oregon - Solid win over MD this week.  Really,  Oregon's only close game in Big Ten play was it's 1-point victory at home against Ohio St

2.  Ohio St -  good blowut win over Purdue.  moving OSU back up to 2.  OSU has looked much better since it struggled to beat Neb.

3. Indiana -  struggled for first time this season against Mich,  but key is Indiana survived and won and will be ready for its key showdown coming up at Ohio St.

4.  Penn St -  solid victory at home over Wash. 

At this point,  there is clear separation between the Top 4 and the Bottom 14,  like a giant chasm.  No team left seems to want that #5 spot.  But I think I got a good candidate.  Also there is a theory out there we should give extra credit for any bottom 14 team that has a road victory over any other bottom 14 team.  Let's see if that works out.

5.  UCLA -  Big win at home against Iowa.  After an 0-4 start in conference with loses to Ind, Ore, PSU and Minn,  UCLA has won 3 in a row,  including road wins at Rut and Neb.

6. Iowa -  lost on the road to UCLA.  Iowa has no home losses and also 1 road win at Minn.

7.  Minnesota - lost on the road this week to Rutgers.  Minn has won twice on the road at UCLA and at ILL.  Minn has lost once at home to Iowa.

8.  Wisconsin - had the week off -  Wisc has 2 road wins,  over Rut and NW. Wisc has 1 home loss, to PSU

9.  Illinois -  had the week off -  ILL has one road win in OT at Neb,  and one home loss to Minn.

10.  Mich St - had the week off - MSU has a road win at MD and 2 home losses, to OSU and Ind.

11.  Washington -  Lost on road to PSU.  Wash has no road wins and no home losses

12.  Michigan - lost a close game on the road to Ind.  Mich has no road wins and has lost at home once, to Oregon

13.  USC -  had the week off -  USC has no road wins and has lost at home in OT to PSU

14.  Nebraska - had the week off - Neb has 1 road win at Pur,  and has lost at home in OT to ILL.

15. NW - NW has 2 road wins,  over MD and over Pur in OT.  NW has 2 home losses,  to Ind and Wisc

16  Rutgers -  won home game this week against Minn. -  Rut has no road wins and has lost at home to Wisc and UCLA

17.  MD - has no road wins and has lost at home to MSU and NW

18.  Purdue - shutout at Ohio St this week -Pur has no road wins and has lost at home to Neb, Ore, and to NW in OT.

Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2024, 08:16:55 AM
Oregon
Ohio St.
Indiana
Penn St.

________

huge drop
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2024, 08:53:17 AM
I didn't watch any games. My brother is in town.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2024, 08:55:49 AM
well, the Big Red and the real Big Red weren't playing, so.............
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: LittlePig on November 10, 2024, 09:52:29 AM
well, the Big Red and the real Big Red weren't playing, so.............
To avoid confusion,  somebody should change their name to Biggest Red.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2024, 10:27:13 AM
Wisconsin is Red
Nebraska is Big Red
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2024, 11:38:02 AM
Uh huh...

(https://i.imgur.com/Sx6qhTn.png)
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2024, 11:42:26 AM
I've been to Camp Randall and Madison on a few gamedays

I've heard "Go Red" many times
Never "GO BIG RED!"
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2024, 11:47:05 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/8qDVE2k.png)
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2024, 11:48:39 AM
1. Ohio State
2. Oregon
3. Indiana
4. Penn State
then
Garbage.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2024, 01:32:49 PM
[img width=500 height=385.994]https://i.imgur.com/8qDVE2k.png[/img]
it's OK to be the better team, the better program, Red, or Bucky

yer just not BIG RED
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: MrNubbz on November 10, 2024, 01:50:24 PM
Not a bad chewing gum,chew it up - spit it out
1)Ducks
2)Bucks
3)Hoosiers 10-0,1st time in school history showing some wear late
4)Lions - rolled the huskies
5)Iowa
6)Goophs
7)Illini
8)Huskies I guess
9)Wolves  " " " " "
10)UCLA   " " " " " 
The Rest need to step up
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: Benthere2 on November 10, 2024, 07:47:08 PM
this gets real muddy after the top 4 and any semblance of teams in any order would probably be fine

(https://i.imgur.com/BTuVCX0.png)
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: Temp430 on November 11, 2024, 09:01:59 AM
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Indiana (didn't pass my eyeball test on Saturday)
5. Iowa
6. Illinois
7. Washington
8. Michigan
9. Minnesota
10. Wisconsin
11. USC
12. Nebraska
13. Michigan State
14. Maryland
15. Rutgers
16. UCLA
17. Northwestern
18. Purdue
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: LittlePig on November 11, 2024, 09:16:24 AM
16. UCLA

Wow.  I guess you are not impressed at all with UCLA's current 3-game win streak.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2024, 09:20:21 AM
Rutgers, Nebraska, and Iowa aren't real impressive wins

the 3 games left on the Bruins schedule aren't impressive either but 6 in a row against anyone will get you something

Washington, USC, Fresno
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: LittlePig on November 11, 2024, 10:10:04 AM
Rutgers, Nebraska, and Iowa aren't real impressive wins

the 3 games left on the Bruins schedule aren't impressive either but 6 in a row against anyone will get you something

Washington, USC, Fresno
Wow,  if that's the case,  then I guess no team in the bottom 14 really has any impressive wins.  Not arguing with you.  I am just re-stating I guess what everybody is thinking.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2024, 10:34:59 AM
4 very good teams in the B1G obviously

Iowa and Minnesooota each have 4 conference wins - no wins vs the top 4

Iowa had one chance and lost 35-7 to the Buckeyes
Minnesota has a chance at home coming up vs Penn St. - we shall see
Iowa does have the win over the Gophers - probably their most impressive win
Gopher's most impressive win?  Illinois on the road
and just lost to Rutgers

Illinois is probably the other team that might be pretty good besides Iowa and Minnesota
2 chances vs the top 4 - 21-7 @ PSU, 38-9 @ Oregon
Illinois dosen't have a bad loss - no impressive win
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: ELA on November 11, 2024, 10:36:42 AM
Last week in parentheses, trying my strategy of just ranking #5-#16 based on +/- against each other, assuming home team should win, then sorting ties by MOV in those games

Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 11, 2024, 11:59:09 AM
1) Still Ohio State.
2) Still Oregon.
3) Still Indiana: closer than one would think it should be, but a win over Michigan is always a good win, and the Hoosiers will be unfeated going to the Horse Shoe.
4) Still Penn State.
5) Still Iowa. Not a good loss, but traveling to the West Coast is hard, and UCLA is better than we think. Turns out that beat down to IU wasn't that bad.
6) I don't know: Illinois? Good week off. Still has some good wins and tough losses?
7) Today? Michigan on a neutral field against everyone below here.
8) UCLA: every team has a head scratcher; UCLA's is the loss to Minnesota. But the rest of their games? Looks like a solidly middle of the pack team.
9) Minnesota: some good, some bad, put 'em in the middle.
10) Wisconsin: big chance to take advantage of the travel issue this week...but don't count on it.
11) Michigan State: week off, no change, but UCLA moved up.
12) Washington: lost in one of the tougher road environments to a better team.
13) USC: no game, no change.
14) Nebraska: no game, no change.
15) Rutgers: quality win at home.
16) Northwestern: no game, no change.
17) Maryland: showed some fight, but no.
18) Purdue: same as it ever was (this season).
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: SuperMario on November 11, 2024, 12:40:32 PM
    MICHIGAN STATE (13)WISCONSIN (9)USC (15)ILLINOIS (8)MICHIGAN (10)
So Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois have better conference records and overall records than MSU and they fall below? With Michigan also beating MSU?
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: ELA on November 11, 2024, 12:51:37 PM
So Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois have better conference records and overall records than MSU and they fall below? With Michigan also beating MSU?
I mentioned in last weeks thread after Iowa and Minnesota that it seems like There is a clear top 4 and clear bottom 2, and that everyone from #5 through #16 is about the same, with the home team winning.  So I just rated the teams in that group this week based on how they are doing among that group, assuming everyone is going to lose to the top 4, and beat the bottom 2, regardless of location.  So I gave teams a +1 for road wins among that middle group, and -1 for home losses among that group.  Then among ties I just sorted by point differential.  So it's a completely new methodology.  I should have just thrown LW out, because it wasn't really a basis for anything.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: LittlePig on November 11, 2024, 01:13:24 PM
I mentioned in last weeks thread after Iowa and Minnesota that it seems like There is a clear top 4 and clear bottom 2, and that everyone from #5 through #16 is about the same, with the home team winning.  So I just rated the teams in that group this week based on how they are doing among that group, assuming everyone is going to lose to the top 4, and beat the bottom 2, regardless of location.  So I gave teams a +1 for road wins among that middle group, and -1 for home losses among that group.  Then among ties I just sorted by point differential.  So it's a completely new methodology.  I should have just thrown LW out, because it wasn't really a basis for anything.
I was having the same dilemma when I did my power rankings.  I ended up with MSU above Mich even though MIch had a better record and had beaten MSU.  But MSU had a win at MD,  and Mich has done nothing special on the road except play Indiana close.  So I had Mich surpisingly low even though it felt wrong.

The other team I was having trouble ranking was Wisconsin.  In my first draft I had them #14.  But then I decided I was not giving them credit enough for their 2 road wins so I moved them up all the way to #8,  which still seems high to me.

In the end, roads wins and home losses don't seem like such a big deal to some teams,  like Minn and NW.  But then are other teams like Wash and Mich that it matters a lot.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: SuperMario on November 11, 2024, 01:17:43 PM
I mentioned in last weeks thread after Iowa and Minnesota that it seems like There is a clear top 4 and clear bottom 2, and that everyone from #5 through #16 is about the same, with the home team winning.  So I just rated the teams in that group this week based on how they are doing among that group, assuming everyone is going to lose to the top 4, and beat the bottom 2, regardless of location.  So I gave teams a +1 for road wins among that middle group, and -1 for home losses among that group.  Then among ties I just sorted by point differential.  So it's a completely new methodology.  I should have just thrown LW out, because it wasn't really a basis for anything.
Interesting. I thought it was a homerism but there's definitely an interesting dynamic.  Just to clarify, the +/- road/home is only based on the games against each other in that center group? It wouldn't include games against the top 4 or bottom 2?
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: ELA on November 11, 2024, 01:19:53 PM
Interesting. I thought it was a homerism but there's definitely an interesting dynamic.  Just to clarify, the +/- road/home is only based on the games against each other in that center group? It wouldn't include games against the top 4 or bottom 2?
Correct.  Although all of those games have gone according to script except Northwestern beating Maryland
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2024, 01:49:14 PM
Does it matter to anyone if your team ends up at 
#5 or #15 in the center group

if your #5 you get a crap bowl game and some extra practices
but, is this something to be proud of?

Obviously, Iowa and Illinois don't want to lose out and drop to #15
Nebraska and Iowa would like to win out and take some of that into the offseason but......

who cares?
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: LittlePig on November 11, 2024, 02:18:54 PM
Boy everybody is so down today.


I would say in general,  programs on the rise would care because they need signs they are making progress.   Programs that have been lurking in the middle for years probably dont care because it's the same old same old

I would think somebody like Nebraska would care if they finish #5 because they have missed a bowl in how many straight years?

Maybe somebody like Iowa doesnt care because there is nothing special about finishing #5 to them.  They have been to the Citrus Bowl 2 out of last 3 years.  Iowa fans are fine with skipping all the Florida Bowls this year.  I heard many Iowa fans would actually prefer the bowl in Arizona this time..
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2024, 02:52:28 PM
for Nebraska........as I stated above

if your #5 you get a crap bowl game and some extra practices

but, is this something to be proud of?


__________________

it's a small step in the right direction, sure
but no big deal
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: Benthere2 on November 11, 2024, 03:11:08 PM
bowls are better than sitting out

any bowl is better than the pinstripe bowl (dangerous field to play on ) 
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2024, 03:12:25 PM
bowls are better than sitting out

any bowl is better than the pinstripe bowl (dangerous field to play on )

agreed on both counts

mostly better to get the extra practices and a perk trip for the roster
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 11, 2024, 03:23:09 PM
This discussion is why, even if it doesn't turn out, McIntosh's decision to hire Fickell was the right call. He was trying to make Wisconsin one of the top programs; he wasn't content to just be one of the better also-rans.

Personally, I like the upper-tier of the also ran bowls if only because they are often good matchups. I don't care about most of the bowl games in December and rarely watch them. But extra practice is good.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2024, 03:45:13 PM
I'll agree that Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, & UCLA sound better matching up than the bottom half

Nebraska, USC, Michigan st. Northwestern

but, I don't think those matchups are much better

before last Friday UCLA would have been in the lower tier
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: SuperMario on November 12, 2024, 09:36:55 AM
Correct.  Although all of those games have gone according to script except Northwestern beating Maryland
Definitely a slightly different angle at ranking, but very curious to see final records and finishes compared to how you have them ranked now.  Good angle and logic behind it.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: ELA on November 12, 2024, 10:00:04 AM
Definitely a slightly different angle at ranking, but very curious to see final records and finishes compared to how you have them ranked now.  Good angle and logic behind it.
The obvious flaw is that tossing out results against the top 4, because those are all losses, is ignoring the fact that Indiana-Michigan was a good game, in Bloomington; and Indiana-MSU was a blowout in East Lansing.

But it does sort of even out the fact that MSU has already played 3 of those 4, and neither of the bottom 2; while Iowa has only played 1 of the top 4, and played 1 of the bottom 2.  Minnesota hasn't played a single team in the top 4 or bottom 2.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: CatsbyAZ on November 12, 2024, 10:50:10 AM
Wow.  I guess you are not impressed at all with UCLA's current 3-game win streak.


UCLA's turn-around, winning three straight after a 1-5 start and logging awful statistics in several categories is one of the more remarkable happenings this season. Through their first six games, the Bruins offense had not scored more than 20 points in any game, averaging 14.5 pts/game.

At 4-5 now a bowl game is more than possible, needing to go 2-1 against teams who are 5-5 or 4-5 like UCLA. Any Bowl in DeShaun Foster's first season makes his start at UCLA a success.


(https://i.imgur.com/PojrU4Y.png)
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2024, 10:54:45 AM
hah, scoring 27 at Nebraska with a pick 6 and 20 vs the Hawks
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: ELA on November 12, 2024, 01:36:10 PM
Updated SOR/SP+ bracket


Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2024, 02:34:27 PM
looks about right 4 each from the B1G and SEC

Dawgs with the #5 seed
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: LittlePig on November 12, 2024, 04:12:21 PM
Updated SOR/SP+ bracket

  • #12 Boise State at #5 Georgia; winner vs. #4 SMU
  • #11 Tennessee at #6 OHIO STATE; winner vs. #3 BYU
  • #10 Miami at #7 PENN STATE; winner vs. #2 Texas
  • #9 INDIANA at #8 Alabama; winner vs. #1 OREGON

It will be interesting who the CFP committee ranks higher

Miami,  SMU or Boise St.   The #4 seed could possibly go to Boise St.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 12, 2024, 05:36:47 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/xt7z2zl.png)
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 12, 2024, 05:41:31 PM
Considering the top-4, it seems that Indiana is the wildcard.  Ohio State's one point loss at Oregon and one-score win at Penn State pretty strongly suggest that tOSU/Oregon are about equal (you can reasonably argue either side of that) and that Penn State is a step behind those two.  

Indiana has yet to play any of the other top-4 teams so they are harder to assess.  Looking at opponents that any of the top-4 have in common:

Ohio State:
Oregon and tOSU are about equal, PSU a step back.  

UCLA:
IU>Ore>PSU

Michigan State:
IU>tOSU>Ore

Illinois:
Ore>PSU

Michigan:
Ore>IU

Washington:
PSU>IU

Maryland:
Ore>IU

Nebraska:
IU>tOSU (by a lot)

Purdue:
tOSU>Ore
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: LittlePig on November 12, 2024, 06:29:44 PM
Yes,  a couple weeks ago,  I think Indiana would have been favored to beat Ohio St using comparative scores.  Since then,  Indiana looks a little more vulnerable and Ohio St has looked better. 

Ind-OSU should be a good game in 2 weeks.  Maybe Indiana will look more fresh after it's bye week. 

OSU still has a potential trap game against NW this week but even if OSU has an off game against NW,  OSU should still win.  Playing in Wrigley field should help motivate the Buckeyes.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2024, 06:39:18 PM
that wouldn't motivate me
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: LittlePig on November 12, 2024, 07:09:51 PM
that wouldn't motivate me
Well,  I am guessing there will be probably 30k+ OSU fans at Wrigley for the OSU-NW game.  It will be kinda like a home game for OSU.

But I totally agree playing football in a baseball stadium pretty much sucks,  especially if you have a perfectly good NFL stadium right down the road.

Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2024, 07:11:05 PM
will they have endzones on each end of the field?
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: LittlePig on November 12, 2024, 07:16:52 PM
will they have endzones on each end of the field?
Yes end zones on both ends,

  but if it's like last years Iowa-NW game at Wrigley  big huge holes formed right at the goal line where they had to pause the game for 15 minutes to fill up the holes and resod the same spot.  I guess the goal line was right where one of the dugouts is normally.

Also both teams had to stand on the same sideline,  with the teams separated at the 50 yard line.

No idea if all those issues got fixed or not.
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: ELA on November 12, 2024, 09:53:20 PM
It will be interesting who the CFP committee ranks higher

Miami,  SMU or Boise St.  The #4 seed could possibly go to Boise St.
Based on this criteria, Boise State is closer to losing the autobid to Army than they are to catching the top 4.  The dissolution of divisions has largely removed the chance of a total wildcard winning a P4 championship 
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: ELA on November 12, 2024, 09:54:30 PM
Yes,  a couple weeks ago,  I think Indiana would have been favored to beat Ohio St using comparative scores.  Since then,  Indiana looks a little more vulnerable and Ohio St has looked better. 

Ind-OSU should be a good game in 2 weeks.  Maybe Indiana will look more fresh after it's bye week. 

OSU still has a potential trap game against NW this week but even if OSU has an off game against NW,  OSU should still win.  Playing in Wrigley field should help motivate the Buckeyes.
Someone should tell Cubs that Wrigley is motivating 
Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: ELA on November 14, 2024, 06:20:33 PM
Massey Composite Computer Rankings - 91 rankings (last week in parentheses)




Title: Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 11
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2024, 06:28:21 PM
big gap between #7 & #26