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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 09, 2024, 11:20:07 PM
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With Oregon and Indiana both winning there will be at least two teams at 7-2 or better. Consequently all but those two, tOSU, and PSU are eliminated.
Indiana and Oregon mathematically control their own destiny. As a practical matter the Buckeyes also control their own destiny because winning out would give Indiana a loss and the Buckeyes would win a tie with either Indiana or Penn State or both. The Buckeyes would also almost certainly win a four-way tie with Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State.
That just leaves Penn State and they need chaos. The problem for Penn State is that the tiebreakers are BAD for them. I actually don't think they could win any tie other than *MAYBE* finishing second in a four-way tie.
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I had some fun with this the other day
What if the 7-team Big Ten West Division still existed? The current division standings would be
Iowa 4-3, Minn 4-3, ILL 3-3, Wisc 3-3, Neb 2-4, NW 2-4, Pur 0-6, total 18-26 but 6 teams would still be alive for the division title.
If the 7-team Big East still existed, the current standings would be
Ind 7-0, OSU 5-1, PSU 5-1, Mich 3-4, MSU 2-4, Rut 2-4, MD 1-5, total 25-19 with 3 teams alive for the division title
If new 9-team east-west divisions would have been created.
If there was a New west division
Ore 7-0, Iowa 4-3, Minn 4-3, wisc 3-3, Wash 3-4, UCLA 3-4, Neb 2-4, NW 2-4, USC 2-5, total 30-30 with Oregon already clinched the division title
If there was a New East division
Ind 7-0, OSU 5-1, PSU 5-1, ILL 3-3, Mich 3-4, MSU 2-4, Rut 2-4, MD 1-5, Pur 0-6, total 28-28 with 3 teams still alive for the division title.
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Some tiebreaker stuff:
First, the potential four-way tie for first at 8-1. This would happen if:
- Ohio State wins out including a win over Indiana and finishes 8-1, and
- Indiana loses to tOSU (see #1) but otherwise wins out and finishes 8-1, and
- Penn State wins out and finishes 8-1, and
- Oregon loses to either Wisconsin or Washington (but not both) and finishes 8-1.
The tiebreaker steps are:
First, H2H2H2H but with the caveats that it only applies if all teams played each other (they didn't) or if one team defeated each of the others (only Ohio State could have and they didn't). Thus on to:
Second, winning % against all common conference opponents:
The only opponent common to all four is Purdue and for this to happen all four would be 1-0 against Purdue.
Third, record against the next highest placed common opponent. This is just back to all being 1-0 against Purdue so on to:
Fourth, best cumulative conference winning % of all conference opponents. This is:
- .552 Ohio State, the Buckeyes' opponents are 32-26
- .414 Penn State, the Nittany Lions' opponents are 24-34
- .404 Oregon, the Ducks' opponents are 23-34
- .368 Indiana, the Hoosiers opponents are 21-36
Ohio State's lead is practically (and probably mathematically) insurmountable so the Buckeyes are in and would wear home jerseys. Penn State is only 1/2 game ahead of Oregon and Oregon is only two games ahead of Indiana so the second team is up in the air but probably not Indiana.
Oregon wins and Penn State loses most ties because the result against Ohio State is HUGELY important in the tiebreakers due to Ohio State's position in the standings.
Indiana would join Penn State in the "loses most ties" camp with a loss to Ohio State. If Indiana beats Ohio State the only way that tiebreakers would be relevant to them is IF they then turned around and lost at home to the B1G's worst team. It *COULD* happen but it is highly unlikely.
At this point the most likely outcome is that the B1GCG will be between Oregon and the tOSU/IU winner. Penn State's path is getting pretty narrow. Ohio State would be effectively eliminated with a loss to Indiana and Indiana would be in a big hole with a loss to Ohio State. Here is what is remaining:
Oregon:
- at Wisconsin this weekend
- Off on 11/23
- vs Washington on 11/30
Indiana:
- Off this weekend
- at Ohio State on 11/23
- vs Purdue on 11/30
Ohio State:
- at Northwestern this weekend
- vs Indiana on 11/23
- vs Michigan on 11/30
Penn State:
- at Purdue this weekend
- at Minnesota on 11/23
- vs Maryland on 11/30
The most plausible and yet somewhat goofy scenario is probably this:
- Oregon wins out and finishes 9-0.
- Ohio State beats NU and IU but loses to Michigan and finishes 7-2.
- Indiana loses to tOSU but beats PU and finishes 8-1.
- Penn State wins out and finishes 8-1.
In this case Oregon is in the B1GCG and wears home jerseys. IU and PSU are tied for the second slot and the tiebreakers are:
First, H2H which doesn't help since they didn't play so move to:
Second, record against all common conference opponents: This doesn't help because they both lost to tOSU and beat all their other opponents so move to:
Third, record against the next best common conference opponents then the next, etc. This doesn't help because they both lost to tOSU and beat all their other opponents so move to:
Fourth, best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents:
As noted above, PSU currently leads this 24-34 or .414 to 21-36 or .368. The two have tOSU, UCLA, UWash, UMD, and PU as common opponents so those are irrelevant. It comes down to the difference between:
For Indiana:
- 2-4 MSU
- 3-4 M
- 2-4 UNL
- 2-4 NU
- 9-16 total
For Penn State:
- 4-3 MN
- 3-3 UWisc
- 2-5 USC
- 3-3 IL
- 12-14 total
Indiana would need to make up their current 2.5 game deficit but that actually probably isn't enough. The next tiebreaker is SportSource Analytics ranking. Since IU has a weaker OOC, they probably need a win at this step, not just a tie. It isn't mathematically impossible but it isn't very likely right now either.
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Ohio State isn't going to lose to Michigan
Oregon wins out and finishes 9-0.
Ohio State wins out and finishes 8-1.
Indiana loses to tOSU but beats PU and finishes 8-1.
Penn State wins out and finishes 8-1.
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Oregon wins out and finishes 9-0.
Ohio State wins out and finishes 8-1.
Indiana loses to tOSU but beats PU and finishes 8-1.
Penn State wins out and finishes 8-1.
In this case the tiebreakers are REALLY simple. It is just H2H because tOSU defeated the other two. Thus, Oregon would wear home jerseys and Ohio State would wear road jerseys in Indianapolis. Then more than likely:
- Oregon/tOSU winner is the #1 or #2 seed.
- Oregon/tOSU loser is the #5 or #6 seed.
- Penn State and Indiana are seeded somewhere between #7-#11.
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the other most likely,...........
Oregon wins out and finishes 9-0.
Ohio State loses to Indiana and finishes 7-2.
Indiana wins out and finishes 9-0.
Penn State wins out and finishes 8-1.
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the other most likely,...........
Oregon wins out and finishes 9-0.
Ohio State loses to Indiana and finishes 7-2.
Indiana wins out and finishes 9-0.
Penn State wins out and finishes 8-1.
In this case the only tie is for 1/2 between Oregon and Indiana. Jersey color in the B1GCG would be determined based on conference winning percentage of conference opponents. Oregon is in the lead right now.
What would be really interesting is to see how the committee ranked Ohio State relative to Penn State. Penn State would have a better record at 11-1 vs 10-2 but both of Ohio State's losses would have been to teams apparently superior to both the Buckeyes and the Lions that the Lions didn't have to play. Meanwhile, Ohio State would have a H2H win on the road over Penn State. I *THINK* the committee would give the Buckeyes credit for their substantially tougher SoS and rank the Buckeyes ahead of the Lions but who knows.
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I *THINK* the committee would give the Buckeyes credit