CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on November 03, 2024, 09:07:53 PM
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This is going to be a WEIRD playoff bracket, and I don't just mean Tuesday.
The real, final one could have SMU, Indiana, BYU, and possibly others could make it in.
A few blue bloods are going to laugh their way to a NCG.
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Is Oregon a blue blood?
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Upsets happen. TCU beat Michigan a couple of years ago in the playoffs. It can happen to anybody.
The more rounds you add, the harder it will be for a top team to actually win the national championship.
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Upsets happen. TCU beat Michigan a couple of years ago in the playoffs. It can happen to anybody.
The more rounds you add, the harder it will be for a top team to actually win the national championship.
For an individual top team, maybe.
For one of the group of them, not at all.
The more rounds you add the more likely it is that the freak upsets don't matter. Your example of TCU is apt. Yeah, they beat Michigan*, but what happened in the next game?
https://youtu.be/JbInPJ_uKoE?si=ECjOHTIOwdgJ-DRa
It was ugly, 38-7 at the half.
BYU might waltz into Tuscaloosa or Happy Valley and get a first round upset but they are not going to win four straight games against the best teams in the country.
*It also must be noted that Michigan was cheating on an industrial scale that season but failed to plan their scheme against TCU. The Wolverines were NC Caliber WITH their cheating scheme but an average team without it.
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So it keeps more teams involved, even though it ultimately doesnt matter?
Sounds perfect to me.
I cant remember the last time CCG Saturday was must watch TV across the board. 2007, 2001 and 1998 come to mind. Add in my 4 team G5 play in tournament, and youve got perfection
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upsets in the first round or 2nd make it easier for one of the top 5 to win it all
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Not sure what you mean by a top 5 team.
In the old 4-team CFP, you had a 100% chance one of the top 5 teams would win the championship.
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I noted before a possibility UGA could be the top tanked team, and a 5 seed, Yes, it will be weird. And the more games you have to play, the greater the chance you get knocked off. These teams will all be top 20ish teams, better than all but 3-4-5 teams you play all season.
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I aso think the conference tie breakers will lead to controversy, and get modified.
I also think the first CFP show is just a show.
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Multiple rounds, statistically, are going to kind of snip off the ends of the bell curve here.
Teams may pull an upset, which is unlikely, so 2 in a row is astronomically unlikely.
The best teams, even if they're truly best, are going to have to prove it multiple times against teams they have a <70% chance to beat (probably), which makes 2 wins vs teams that good at under 50% likelihood.
It helps teams that are good enough to avoid upsets AND beat #1 on any given day. A race to the middle (of the top cluster), if you will.
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What's the first thing about the playoffs that they tinker with in the offseason?
The BCS routinely made adjustments every time something weird happened, iirc.
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What's the first thing about the playoffs that they tinker with in the offseason?
The BCS routinely made adjustments every time something weird happened, iirc.
If they don't expand to 14 teams, I predict they will change the seeding process so that the top 4 seeds will include the 3 top conference champions and the best at-large team. The best at-large team can be ranked anywhere from #1 to #4 and will get a first round bye.
If the 4th best conference champion is not included in the top 4 seeds, then it will be guarunteed a first round home game instead
If they do expand to 14, then only the top 2 conference champions will get first round byes.
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if an SEC team doesn't win it, .......... there will be a change
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What's the first thing about the playoffs that they tinker with in the offseason?
The BCS routinely made adjustments every time something weird happened, iirc.
I found it akin to missing your first XP and then chasing points going for 2 over and over again.
Stupid.
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If they don't expand to 14 teams, I predict they will change the seeding process so that the top 4 seeds will include the 3 top conference champions and the best at-large team. The best at-large team can be ranked anywhere from #1 to #4 and will get a first round bye.
If the 4th best conference champion is not included in the top 4 seeds, then it will be guarunteed a first round home game instead
If they do expand to 14, then only the top 2 conference champions will get first round byes.
If they're thinking of 14, just go to 16 as a nice, square number. People aren't fans of wonky bracket creation.
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I mentioned before how the #1 AP ranked team might not make a 1-4 seeding. If that happens, it might lead to changes. If the best G5 champion gets scorched 2-3 times in a row, it might as well. If a major conference champion ends up say 10-3 as a 4 seed and gets whomped, it might change.
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it's not really about seeding, right?
it's about inclusion and not leaving a team out that has right to participate
the idea is to win it on the field of play
if it's meant to be and your a true champion, it shouldn't matter if you have to run a gauntlet through the top opponents
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The more games you play against upper level teams, the more certain it becomes you lose, even if you are the best.
We have created a playoff champion, which is fine I guess, it makes more money.
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I was opposed to it
still wish we didn't have it
but, looking on the bright side, it gives us more games with worthy opponents
it's entertaining, which of course is worth $$$
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Yeah, it's "entertaining", I don't really mind it, but I think we get a playoff champion, which is most years will not be the "best team".
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Ed Zachery
subtracts from the season
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I was opposed to it
still wish we didn't have it
but, looking on the bright side, it gives us more games with worthy opponents
it's entertaining, which of course is worth $$$
Great for Network Moguls and University Honchos who don't risk anything. But went exceeding far IMO asking too much of actual student athletes and extended the season exposing Sunday Bound talent to more injury. Many will bail out protecting their interests and justifiably so methinks
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The lesser bowl games will get "NIT'd", heavily, any of them not a playoff game. Players will broadly opt out I think, at least those with no remaining year. We'll end up with more FSU-UGA Orange Bowl events.
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Exactly what the sport needs. :57:
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Playoff 1.0
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1 Oregon
2 Georgia
3 Miami
4 BYU
5 Ohio St
6 Texas
7 Penn St
8 Indiana
9 Tennessee
10 ND
11 Alabama
12 Boise St
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Playoff 1.0
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1 Oregon
2 Georgia
3 Miami
4 BYU
5 Ohio St
6 Texas
7 Penn St
8 Indiana
9 Tennessee
10 ND
11 Alabama
12 Boise St
So if the playoffs started today:
- Boise at Ohio State, winner vs BYU
- Bama at Texas, winner vs Miami
- Notre Dame at Penn State, winner vs Georgia
- Tennessee at Indiana, winner vs Oregon
Semi-Finals:
- Boise/tOSU/BYU vs Tennessee/Indiana/Oregon
- Bama/Texas/Miami vs Notre Dame/Penn State/Georgia
Championship:
- Boise/tOSU/BYU/TN/IU/Ore vs Bama/Texas/Miami/ND/PSU/UGA
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OSU and Oregon would take this bracket happily.
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I’m happy with A&M at 14. Lot of ball left to play.
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First team out: SMU
2nd team out: A&M
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There is now a realistic chance that Ohio State could play the Hoosiers twice and the Ducks thrice this season:
- Ohio State wins out
- Oregon wins out
- Indiana loses to Ohio State but otherwise wins out
- Ohio State beats Oregon in a rematch in the B1GCG
- Indiana beats Tennessee
- Oregon beats Boise
- Oregon beats BYU
- Ohio State beats Indiana
By beating Oregon in the B1GCG the Buckeyes would likely swap spots with the Ducks so the Buckeyes would get the #1 seed and the Ducks the #5 seed.
If #8 Indiana beats #9 Tennessee in Bloomington then Ohio State's first playoff game is a rematch with the Hoosiers.
If Ohio State wins that while Oregon beats Boise (at home) and BYU in a neutral bowl, then Ohio State's second playoff game (the National Semi-Final) would be their third game of 2024 against Oregon (@Oregon, B1GCG, CFP Semi-Final).
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The lesser bowl games will get "NIT'd", heavily, any of them not a playoff game. Players will broadly opt out I think, at least those with no remaining year. We'll end up with more FSU-UGA Orange Bowl events.
They might get NIT'd literally.
They could install some sort of a lesser 8-team playoff at some point, for the teams that didn't make the CFP; USC, Nebraska, aTm, etc.
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If Ohio State wins that while Oregon beats Boise (at home) and BYU in a neutral bowl, then Ohio State's second playoff game (the National Semi-Final) would be their third game of 2024 against Oregon (@Oregon, B1GCG, CFP Semi-Final).
This would make me commit a crime to be imprisoned on purpose, then smear my shit on the walls.
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This would make me commit a crime to be imprisoned on purpose, then smear my shit on the walls.
Please commit a crime.
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If Ohio State wins that while Oregon beats Boise (at home) and BYU in a neutral bowl, then Ohio State's second playoff game (the National Semi-Final) would be their third game of 2024 against Oregon (@Oregon, B1GCG, CFP Semi-Final).
the SEC gets what they want
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There is now a realistic chance that Ohio State could play the Hoosiers twice and the Ducks thrice this season:
It is somewhat likely UGA and Texas play three times as well.
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First team out: SMU
2nd team out: A&M
I appreciate at least a small part of this system because A&M doesn’t deserve to be in at the moment. Feels like a great borderline team.
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It is somewhat likely UGA and Texas play three times as well.
Wouldn't it be funny if the National Championship Semi-finals ended up being the third games each between Oregon/Ohio State and Georgia/Texas?
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I really hope they make tweaks to at least avoid rematches in the first round
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The craziest thing I think is if UGA goes 11-1, Oregon loses, and UGA gets ranked #1, but is a 5 seed,
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Please let it play out where Tennessee hosts Indiana in Neyland stadium. Please, please, please.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzJieeZb5do
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Never change ESPN
(https://i.imgur.com/IRxnIvY.png)
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No way a 1 loss IU team gets in ahead of a 1 loss ND team
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Pretty touch to see a loss on ND's schedule.
Army could be a problem, and I would love to see them beat the Iwish.
(https://i.imgur.com/WVUlcXg.png)
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Pretty touch to see a loss on ND's schedule.
Army could be a problem, and I would love to see them beat the Iwish.
[img width=500 height=150.994]https://i.imgur.com/WVUlcXg.png[/img]
Well they lost to Northern Illinois, so I wouldn't rule out them losing at least 1 of their remaining games...
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Well they lost to Northern Illinois, so I wouldn't rule out them losing at least 1 of their remaining games...
Yeah, aside from Florida State, the rest of their schedule is at least better than NIU
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I think they lose to USC.
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LA is the DeKalb of California
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Which team in the initial rankings is most likely to implode down the stretch?
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Wouldn't it be funny if the National Championship Semi-finals ended up being the third games each between Oregon/Ohio State and Georgia/Texas?
Funny?
Funny how?
Funny like a clown?
Funny how? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcy15ZUE2c)
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funny strange
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Which teams outside of the rankings are serious P5 title contenders?
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Funny?
Funny how?
Funny like a clown?
Funny how? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcy15ZUE2c)
Thats my favorite mob movie, better than the Godfather
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Which teams outside of the rankings are serious P5 title contenders?
I know what you meant, but since you asked about the P5 instead of the P4...
I guess you could include Wash St and Ore St from the remaining Pac-2 conference. Although the Pac champion is no longer considered for the CFP, since the Pac does not qualify as an official FBS conference in 2024 and 2025.
Wiith the future expansion/rebith of the Pac coming in 2026, there is some debate where the new Pac-7/8 falls in the Power category. Most people assume we will just start using the terms P4 and G6 starting in 2026, since the new Pac will no longer be considered one of the power conferences.
There is also some debate if the P4 itself should be split into 2 different categories, P2 and M2.
This is reflected in the CFP payout starting in 2026, which was agreed to before the Pac was brought back to life
P2 (Big Ten, SEC). - each member gets around $21M to $23M each from the CFP starting in 2026
M2 (Big 12, ACC, Notre Dame). - each member gets around $11M to $13M each
Pac-2 (Wash St, Ore St) - each member gets $3.6M each
G5 (AAC, MWC, SBC, MAC, CUSA) - each member gets $1.8M each
UConn - $360k
Notre Dame and UConn will be the only independents left in the FBS starting in 2026.
I also assume that the new Pac will get its automatic spot back for its conference champion in 2026. At least in the sense that the Pac champion will be one of champions considered when the CFP selects the 5 best conference champions that automatically qualify for the CFP.
It is not clear to me what payout the New Pac will get from the CFP, I assume that will have to be renegotiated during the look-in period after 2026-2028. Until then I will assume all the new Pac members will still get $1.8M each.
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Yeah, I meant bubble busters. The teams that could win a P4 conference title, that aren't currently in the top 12.
As for OSU3 and WSU, It's my understanding that they aren't eligible for the G5 spot. They have the Notre Dame rules.
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Clemson or Pitt have a shot.
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Thats my favorite mob movie, better than the Godfather
Same
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This week's rankings (playoff seed), for fun:
1 Oregon
2 OSU (5)
3 Texas (2)
4 Penn St (6)
5 Indiana (7)
6 BYU (3)
7 Tennessee (8)
8 ND (9)
9 Miami (4)
10 Alabama
11 Ole Miss
12 Georgia (first team out)
13 Boise St (12)
14 SMU
15 A&M
16 K-State
17 Colorado
18 Wazzou
19 Louisville
20 Clemson
21 USCe
22 LSU
23 Mizzou
24 Army
25 Tulane
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Playoff:
12 Boise @ 5 OSU..............winner vs Miami
9 ND @ 8 Tenn..................winner vs Oregon
11 Ole Miss @ 6 Penn St.....winner vs BYU
10 Bama @ 7 IU................winner vs Texas
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If one of the big-boy teams got to face IU then BYU.....beware. Might be 2 ugly games and a red carpet to the semis.
Speaking of IU.....their game vs OSU might be the program's biggest game of all-time.
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Ed Zachery why the Big Boys signed up for this
and the Hoosiers will have another bigger game after the win or loss to the Buckeyes
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If one of the big-boy teams got to face IU then BYU.....beware. Might be 2 ugly games and a red carpet to the semis.
Speaking of IU.....their game vs OSU might be the program's biggest game of all-time.
Your lack of respect for Indiana is understandable given the Hoosiers lack of any any history in college football.
BUT I am not sure you appreciate just how dominant Indiana has been this season. Fortunely Indiana has its big game coming up in 2 weeks to prove all you doubters wrong (or right)
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If one of the big-boy teams got to face IU then BYU.....beware. Might be 2 ugly games and a red carpet to the semis.
Speaking of IU.....their game vs OSU might be the program's biggest game of all-time.
This is what I hate about CFB. You’re not even giving them a shot, based on the past 50 or 100 seasons that happened prior to 2024, rather than what happens in 2024. There’s so much bias built into this system it’s sickening.
plus, you never know. One of those two teams might just play like their hair is on fire.
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a Hoosier cinderella story is what gives college football a spark and a story
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This is what I hate about CFB. You’re not even giving them a shot, based on the past 50 or 100 seasons that happened prior to 2024, rather than what happens in 2024. There’s so much bias built into this system it’s sickening.
plus, you never know. One of those two teams might just play like their hair is on fire.
Sure, I understand what you're saying, but... a 12-team playoff leaves ample room for a worthy Indiana team to get into the big-time postseason, regardless of what fans or mediots think of them.
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yup , folks would be going nuts if we had a 4 team playoff and the Hoosiers upset Ohio St.
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So right now, the CFP has Miami #9 seed, Boise St #13 and SMU #14.
I wonder if it's possible for Boise to leap over Miami and stay ahead of SMU to grab the #4 seed.
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I doubt it
even an undefeated Boise isn't likely to get a #4 or #5
Number 4 is reserved for a conference champ and I don't think the mountain west qualifies
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Your lack of respect for Indiana is understandable given the Hoosiers lack of any any history in college football.
It isn't just the history, Indiana is difficult to assess because their schedule so far this year has been pathetic. I watched CFB Nerds last night and I think they said that IU's SoS rank was in the 130's. That would be bad even for a G5. Part of this is IU's "fault" and part isn't. The part that is, is that IU's OOC was incredibly weak. Although, to their defense I can understand why. The Hoosiers typically struggle for bowl eligibility so they scheduled an OOC that nearly guaranteed three wins. They played:
- FIU: currently 3-6 overall, 2-3 in CUSA.
- Western Illinois: currently 3-7 overall, 2-4 in their FCS conference
- Charlotte: currently 3-6 overall, 2-3 in the AAC
The part that definitively isn't IU's "fault" is three things:
- The B1G gave them an unintentionally lightweight schedule.
- The bottom of the B1G is just atrocious this year.
- Indiana's schedule was somewhat back-loaded with the Buckeyes in the penultimate regular season game.
How does one fairly evaluate that?
Then you run into the "which one is an outlier" issue:
- On the basis of performance against Nebraska, IU is MUCH better than tOSU.
- On the basis of performance against Michigan, IU is substantially worse then Oregon.
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EDIT: Please disregard this post below. I read the information wrong. Totally my mistake. Sorry
Among undefeated and 1-loss teams, these are the SOS rankings
7. Ohio St 8-1
11. Texas 8-1
13. Tenn 8-1
15. Penn St 8-1
18. Oregon 10-0
20. Notre Dame 8-1
22. Miami 8-1
35. BYU 9-0
40. SMU 8-1
56. Indiana 10-0
66. Boise St 8-1
75. Wash St 8-1
81. La 8-1
119. Army 9-0
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BYWhoo?
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BYWhoo?
Sorry, I missed BYU SOS at #35. I Fixed it in my post. Thanks. Good catch.
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so, better than Indiana?
interesting
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Among undefeated and 1-loss teams, these are the SOS rankings
7. Ohio St 8-1
11. Texas 8-1
13. Tenn 8-1
15. Penn St 8-1
18. Oregon 10-0
20. Notre Dame 8-1
22. Miami 8-1
35. BYU 9-0
40. SMU 8-1
56. Indiana 10-0
66. Boise St 8-1
75. Wash St 8-1
81. La 8-1
119. Army 9-0
Are those rankings for the entire season including the portion not yet played?
I ask because Klatt said IU's was #100 link (https://youtu.be/uYcccId9FjY?si=4kCnOmgdfDAcwd1f).
College Football Nerds said that they have "literally the worst SoS not just in the B1G but in the entire P4" link (https://youtu.be/2_tOJewoBOs?si=6m4c2dsTWALx3vvk).
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Ok, you got me, I don't know what that #56 SOS rankings was based on. Please disregard that post.
Looks like the #100 SOS ranking for Indiana previously mentioned came from the ESPN FPI
Looking around, the massey composite has Indiana with a SOS ranking of 65. Interestingly Massey only has a SOS of 44 for Ohio St and 66 for Notre Dame
https://masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings
Sagarin has a SOS ranking of 76 for Indiana.
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A 1 loss Indiana should be out. Pathetic scheduling.
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imbo Fisher is backing Indiana to be included in the College Football Playoff if the Hoosiers finish the regular season with an 11-1 record.
IU is currently 10-0 and will be idle in Week 12 ahead of its trip to Ohio State in Week 13. Indiana will likely be a big underdog in that matchup against the Buckeyes, but Fisher argues that the result of that game shouldn’t matter as long as Indiana finishes the season with 1 loss.
“A 1-loss Indiana team better be in the Playoff,” Fisher said on SiriusXM Radio on Wednesday with Jacob Hester and EJ Manuel. “I’m telling you that right now.”
Fisher also said a (hypothetical) 1-loss BYU team also deserves to be in the field. Fisher was dismissive of the idea that a 3-loss team from the SEC would be more deserving than Indiana or BYU.
“I think Indiana has been the most consistent team in the country,” Fisher said. “How they’ve been coached, how they’ve played … I see ESPN now is prepping for trying to get 3-loss teams in, I don’t want to get into that, man.
“If [Indiana and BYU) only lose 1 game, both of them, they both better be in.”
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imbo Fisher is backing Indiana to be included in the College Football Playoff if the Hoosiers finish the regular season with an 11-1 record.
IU is currently 10-0 and will be idle in Week 12 ahead of its trip to Ohio State in Week 13. Indiana will likely be a big underdog in that matchup against the Buckeyes, but Fisher argues that the result of that game shouldn’t matter as long as Indiana finishes the season with 1 loss.
“A 1-loss Indiana team better be in the Playoff,” Fisher said on SiriusXM Radio on Wednesday with Jacob Hester and EJ Manuel. “I’m telling you that right now.”
Fisher also said a (hypothetical) 1-loss BYU team also deserves to be in the field. Fisher was dismissive of the idea that a 3-loss team from the SEC would be more deserving than Indiana or BYU.
“I think Indiana has been the most consistent team in the country,” Fisher said. “How they’ve been coached, how they’ve played … I see ESPN now is prepping for trying to get 3-loss teams in, I don’t want to get into that, man.
“If [Indiana and BYU) only lose 1 game, both of them, they both better be in.”
A 3 loss SEC won't get in. The problem will be 4 or 5 two loss SEC teams, which would deserve to be in over Indiana.
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A 3 loss SEC team doesn't deserve to get in over a one loss indiana
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A 3 loss SEC team doesn't deserve to get in over a one loss indiana
For the crime of playing a much tougher schedule?
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they only play 8 conference games
they're not trying to play a much tougher schedule
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Depending, I could see a path for a 3 loss UGA making the playoff as a low seed, it's possible if other teams tank late. They would have two decent wins over playoff teams and three losses ostensibly to other playoff teams. I'm NOT saying they should make it, only that they COULD make it.
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I'm LOL because we've argued on here so many times about how the 12 team playoff will diminish interest, and nobody would care, on and on, and here we are arguing about #13-16, strength of schedule, who is getting screwed, etc.
Welcome to the new boss. Same as the old boss.
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I didn't think it would diminish interest in the sport, just some aspects thereof.
I can see a lot of players sitting out bowl games, even the Orange Bowl et al.
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I didn't think it would diminish interest in the sport, just some aspects thereof.
I can see a lot of players sitting out bowl games, even the Orange Bowl et al.
This was already an increasing trend before a 12-team playoff. I think it's more a sign of the times than anything else.
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I didn't think it would diminish interest in the sport, just some aspects thereof.
I can see a lot of players sitting out bowl games, even the Orange Bowl et al.
An indication the Networks/Universities are stretching these players luck,that many/me have been parroting since it was announced
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Indeed, FSU did it, and I suspect it's going to explode now because of the playoff.
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we've had a playoff for a few seasons
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This was already an increasing trend before a 12-team playoff. I think it's more a sign of the times than anything else.
Have we seen guys with remaining eligibility do it? I think you might start seeing that. To be honest, the coaches probably wouldn't even hate it, give them more chances to see which reserves are worth fighting/paying to keep out of the portal, and which ones aren't. Granted the flip side is it might show which reserves other schools decide to attempt to poach, and which ones they don't.
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I didn't think it would diminish interest in the sport, just some aspects thereof.
I can see a lot of players sitting out bowl games, even the Orange Bowl et al.
Just to make sure I understand. Right now the plan is for the Orange Bowl to always be part of the CFP rotation. Some years as a quarterfinal around New Years day and other years as a semifinal about 10 days after New Years.
So are you saying you think players will be sitting out playoff games too?
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A 3 loss SEC team doesn't deserve to get in over a one loss indiana
I quoted @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) here but I'm replying to him, @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) , @jgvol (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1567) and others.
IMHO this and OAM's immediate "for the crime of playing a tougher schedule" comment are too hasty. I think it depends *WHICH* SEC team ends up with 3 losses.
Assuming that Indiana loses to Ohio State (the only other option is Purdue) then the Hoosiers will have a "not bad" loss and . . . no quality wins. Their OOC was laughable and their league schedule avoids Oregon and Penn State so there isn't much left. Based on current standings their best wins would be UCLA, Washington, and Michigan (all 3-4 in conference).
Personally, I'd take a 3-loss Georgia over that 11-1 IU because Georgia has the #1 SoS in the Country. Their schedule includes:
- Clemson (won 34-3)
- @ Bama (lost 41-34)
- @ Texas (won 30-15)
- @ Ole Miss (lost 28-10)
- Tennessee (this weekend)
If Georgia beats Tennessee and wins their last two games (vs UMASS, vs GaTech) they'll be 10-2 including 3-2 against teams substantially better than ANY team that a 11-1 IU beat. Even with a loss to Tennessee, the Dawgs would still have two wins (Clemson and @ Texas) clearly better than anything on IU's resume.
That said, I mentioned above that UGA has the #1 SoS so they have the BEST potential 3-loss SEC Team argument. I'd view it a LOT differently if the 3-loss SEC team in question was Tennessee. Tennessee played a ranked NCST team OOC but that was then. At this point NCST is 5-5 overall and 2-4 in the weak ACC so that win isn't impressive.
Within the SEC, Tennessee played a ranked Oklahoma team but that team is now 5-5/1-5 so not impressive. They lost to a mediocre Arkansas team. They don't play aTm, Texas, Ole Miss, Mizzou, LSU, or USCe so the only .500+ SEC teams that they play are Bama (won 24-17) and UGA (this weekend). I wouldn't take a 3-loss Tennessee over an 11-1 Indiana. Even a 10-2 Tennessee doesn't have that good of an argument. Sure, they have a nice win over Bama but they also have an ugly loss to Arkansas. In my view those more-or-less cancel out and then you have a loss to UGA.
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2 loss Tennessee, 2 loss Ole Miss would be comparable. (Tennessee at least tried to play someone OOC, however. OM did not.)
If Texas takes another loss (vs. A&M), they should be the first 2 loss SEC out of the playoff But they won't be.). Their best win is 10th place, 6-4 Vandy. Essentially Indiana, with an extra loss.
I don't think any 3 loss team deserves a slot. Even with UGA's schedule. (And it's about damned time they played a tough one.)
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Personally, I'd take a 3-loss Georgia over that 11-1 IU because Georgia has the #1 SoS in the Country. Their schedule includes:
- Clemson (won 34-3)
- @ Bama (lost 41-34)
- @ Texas (won 30-15)
- @ Ole Miss (lost 28-10)
- Tennessee (this weekend)
the old great SOS with losses vs crap SOS w/o losses
if Indiana's lone loss is to Ohio St that's a pretty good loss
yes, Georgia's losses are good,(about the same as a 2 loss OSU) but there are 3 of them
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the old great SOS with losses vs crap SOS w/o losses
if Indiana's lone loss is to Ohio St that's a pretty good loss
yes, Georgia's losses are good,(about the same as a 2 loss OSU) but there are 3 of them
Well, you'd have to play 3 to get 3 so there's that. :)
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I don't think it's better to have a better 4th loss
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(https://i.imgur.com/D8spBSD.png)
BIG TEN scavenging itself
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I don't think it's better to have a better 4th loss
And there's the conundrum.
Play a tough schedule and get rewarded/punished for it.
Play an easy schedule and get rewarded/punished for it.
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Indiana, assuming a loss to OSU, won't have any "great wins". However it's not like they were struggling through those wins. They were blowing teams out.
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And there's the conundrum.
Play a tough schedule and get rewarded/punished for it.
Play an easy schedule and get rewarded/punished for it.
I'll give Georgia props for scheduling Clemson
UMass, Tennessee Tech, & G-tech not so much
As for Clemson, they've played no one besides Georgia
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And there's the conundrum.
Play a tough schedule and get rewarded/punished for it.
Play an easy schedule and get rewarded/punished for it.
Voters like to rank teams by number of losses, by and large. Makes it a no-brainer. But also shitty.
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Voters like to rank teams by number of losses, by and large. Makes it a no-brainer. But also shitty.
As you said all summer, you've got to keep the Purdues, and Northwesterns around as cannon fodder for the blue bloods, so that they can all go at least 10-2 every year.
The SEC has plenty of natural Cannon Fodder, and their blue bloods take their turn playing that role for each other, like the Gators and Sooners are doing this year.
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As you said all summer, you've got to keep the Purdues, and Northwesterns around as cannon fodder for the blue bloods, so that they can all go at least 10-2 every year.
The SEC has plenty of natural Cannon Fodder, and their blue bloods take their turn playing that role for each other, like the Gators and Sooners are doing this year.
Yes, and that is the role USC, Mich, Wash, Neb are playing in the Big Ten this year. Traditional powers with losing records in the Big Ten this year.
Mich and Wash were just in the national championship game last year. Both lost their head coach and a bunch of players. Their drop-off was extremely fast. Nebraska dominated in the 90's but has been down for over a decade now and some are starting to wonder if they will ever get back to their previous power status. USC dominated in the mid-2000's but has been sputtering.
This is just the way it's going to be from now. Traditional powers are going to have take turns with losing seasons.
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I think maybe some programs will remain elevated because of recruiting and tradition, like Ohio State and UGA (I hope). And a slide for them would probably be a 9-3 season or so, which UGA may well endure this year. A new coach at such a program could well have a first season not that great (Smart had 8-5 to start).
Florida at some point will be mostly back because of recruiting and tradition.
We all know how a team can have five star players in the wrong positions and/or not really motivated, and be mediocre.
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I don't think Florida has a good NIL program.
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I have no idea who has a really good NIL program and who doesn't. I'd be surprised if major programs don't have at least competitive efforts, or will shortly. Florida was looking at donors coming up with buyout money for the coach. So, the money seems to be there, maybe in the wrong place.
Is Oregon about to be a "Power" in CFB? I know they've had some strong seasons, but folks view them as more up and down, maybe they are about to be mostly up.
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does anyone expect Indiana to stay up next season?
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does anyone expect Indiana to stay up next season?
Hooser fans ...
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the millions of basketball fans or the hundreds of football fans?
I'd say the later group
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does anyone expect Indiana to stay up next season?
I don't.
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me either
curt will need to bring in another 12+ players
that gets expensive
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I lean to thinking Indiana is about to catch a dose of reality.
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oh, they are real
a real good team
are they as good as Ohio St.?
we're gonna find out
I think their QB is better
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I have no idea who has a really good NIL program and who doesn't. I'd be surprised if major programs don't have at least competitive efforts, or will shortly. Florida was looking at donors coming up with buyout money for the coach. So, the money seems to be there, maybe in the wrong place.
Is Oregon about to be a "Power" in CFB? I know they've had some strong seasons, but folks view them as more up and down, maybe they are about to be mostly up.
Infinite Nike money says "Yes", at least in theory.
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Can they keep Lanning from going to the NFL?
That's the big question for me.
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If we attempt to look at CFB in 2034, what might we see? Who would be the apparent powers (aside from some team having one really good season)?
We could look back at 2014 and perhaps understand how poorly we'd do (other than chance).
2014 Final Football Polls | College Poll Archive (https://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/seasons.cfm?seasonid=2014)
In the top 15 in 2014, we see Ohio State at uno, they have pretty much stayed put near that ranking. We also see Mich State, TCU, FSU, ASU, Georgia Tech, Baylor, UCLA, ... unranked included ND, LSU, A&M ...
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things will probably change more in the next ten seasons than they did in the past ten seasons
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Know what I think? ? We should stop worrying about getting 2 and 3 loss SEC teams into the playoff. There can only be so many SEC teams, and everyone of us in the SEC accepted that it was the undisputed toughest conference in the CFB world, with the B1G running a close 2nd. Full Stop.
If SEC teams are unhappy that a 2 or 3 loss SEC team is not getting in versus a 1 or 0 loss MAC, Big 12, PAC, ACC, or whatever, they should just leave the SEC and go to one of those conferences. I'm sure they would be glad to have them.
When all the dust settles, it will either be an SEC or B1G team that wins it all, regardless of records, just like it has been the case 90% of the time for the last 15-20 years. Clemson and FSU being the only exceptions, and before that USC, which is now a B1G team.
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agreed
if you don't want to be in the SEC because it's too tough, follow ol Muleshoe
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This is probably an old fashioned way of thinking, but if the ultimate goal is to win the national champiinship, and you already have 3 losses in the regular season, I would just say you had your chance and you blew it.
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This is probably an old fashioned way of thinking, but if the ultimate goal is to win the national champiinship, and you already have 3 losses in the regular season, I would just say you had your chance and you blew it.
I agree with you but the other side of that coin is that whoever wins the NC in this 12-team CFP era is going to close with an insane gauntlet.
An Ohio State site that I read had a comment about this that after Northwestern, if the Buckeyes are to win the NC they will close with at least six straight "jewelry and top-10" games:
- current #5 (and they aren't dropping because they are off this week) Indiana
- Rivalry "Gold Pants" game against Michigan
- B1GCG for B1G Rings
- CFB Quarter-Final almost certainly against a top-10 opponent.
- CFB Semi-Final almost certainly against a top-10 opponent.
- CFB CG almost certainly against a top-10 opponent.
If the Buckeyes were to lose the B1GCG (after winning the three between now and then) then there would be an extra top-10 game in between #3 and #4.
The tOSU site stated that this was a potential six-game stretch unlike anything any prior CFB team has EVER played.
The thing is that while they are right, that really isn't specific to Ohio State. Whoever wins the NC will finish with something like that.
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This is probably an old fashioned way of thinking, but if the ultimate goal is to win the national champiinship, and you already have 3 losses in the regular season, I would just say you had your chance and you blew it.
I agree, broadly speaking, though we see 7-8+ loss teams win the basketball thing. (I don't know the equivalence to a 3 loss CFB team, maybe it's more like 12 losses.)
We get a playoff champion.
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agreed
if you don't want to be in the SEC because it's too tough, follow ol Muleshoe
He probably doesn't like being in the B1G. But he is.
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he might move to Washington St.
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I agree with you but the other side of that coin is that whoever wins the NC in this 12-team CFP era is going to close with an insane gauntlet.
An Ohio State site that I read had a comment about this that after Northwestern, if the Buckeyes are to win the NC they will close with at least six straight "jewelry and top-10" games:
- current #5 (and they aren't dropping because they are off this week) Indiana
- Rivalry "Gold Pants" game against Michigan
- B1GCG for B1G Rings
- CFB Quarter-Final almost certainly against a top-10 opponent.
- CFB Semi-Final almost certainly against a top-10 opponent.
- CFB CG almost certainly against a top-10 opponent.
If the Buckeyes were to lose the B1GCG (after winning the three between now and then) then there would be an extra top-10 game in between #3 and #4.
The tOSU site stated that this was a potential six-game stretch unlike anything any prior CFB team has EVER played.
The thing is that while they are right, that really isn't specific to Ohio State. Whoever wins the NC will finish with something like that.
Right.
No one, no matter how great they are, is likely to win the NC. It becomes a near coin-flip. Whoever happens to win by sheer statistical circumstance is the champion.
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That doesn’t make sense. The better team always wins. Always.
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6 consecutive coin flips yields some pretty small percentages. Taught that to my class when discussing 7 swing state outcomes from the election.
I had to explain why I told them neither candidate would win all 7, lol.
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What defines a successful season these days for YOUR team?
I know in basketball, for some, making the NCAA tournament is a good year, for some the Final Four is a nice season, for some making a bowl game is a decent year, beating your rivals ...
I was thinking about this last night, for UGA of course starting at #1 pretty much defines what success means, but that looks rather unlikely now. They should make the playoffs though Tech is looking pretty decent. That games is in Athens. So, say they make the 12 and maybe win the first game and then bow out. Good year? I'd say pretty much, with some disappointment relative to expectations, which for fans seems too high in nearly every case.
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9 wins at Nebraska
anything less is not
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9 wins at Nebraska
anything less is not
Frankie would like a word with you.
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I wasn't the dipshit that fired him after winning 10
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Circa August, with the schedule we were facing, making a bowl would work.
But then half the team gets hurt, so that's fun, yet the team puts up its best fight vs Tennessee and Georgia in that circumstance. FSU falling off a cliff makes that a much more likely win. Upset LSU.
So in a curvy, winding way, we arrive back at 6-6 and a bowl working out.
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I wasn't the dipshit that fired him after winning 10
As bad as it was losing more and more games after getting rid of him, UNL losing its identity was even worse.
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What are a couple reasonably probable if unlikely things that could really upend the committee?
I was looking at SMU at 7-0 in conference play likely to face Clemson/Miami in a CG. Seeing SMU getting a bye would be "fun". Indiana is in a similar position of course and having both of them ending up top 4 would be epic, but I doubt it. I'm not sold on Indiana at all, yet.
The SEC is a likely mess at the top, maybe Florida can knock off Ole Miss. Probably not. Then there is USC possibly taking ND out of it. And Colorado is tied for the B12 lead, so we "COULD" see SMU/Colorado/Indiana all in the top 4. Not likely. Who would have picked that preseason?
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I'll give it another couple weeks before I start to worry too much
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There's several ways all 4 top seeds could be traditional "have-nots," but after they enjoy their little byes, they'd be in for a reckoning.
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Boise State jumped BYU for the last bye
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I wonder what a big-boy team does on the frozen blue turf against a one-dimensional Broncos team....
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(https://townsquare.media/site/737/files/2022/02/attachment-feat1.jpg?w=780&q=75)
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I find it interesting how much "discussion" these rankings generate. Folks try and glean somehow how the committee "thinks".
The Talking Heads need something of course, I get more information of value around here routinely. Getting worked up over whether UGA is at 10 or should be 6 is ... a waste of energy for me.
I try and stay relaxed over things outside my control.
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I wonder what a big-boy team does on the frozen blue turf against a one-dimensional Broncos team....
I doubt you'd see them host a game. They'll either be #3/4, #12 or out
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As things stand, you'd have SEC teams playing BiG teams and ND up north.
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it doesn't get any better than that.........
Bama playing in Bloomington, Indiana in the snow
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Was listening to Josh Pate this AM.
The betting service he used -- FanDuel maybe? --- had every SEC road team favored by 1-1/2 at Bloomington, South Bend, and Happy Valley.
FWIW -- and not that it matters much.
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it doesn't get any better than that.........
Bama playing in Bloomington, Indiana in the snow
and when that happens, they will change the rules for the future (like was done with the Super Bowl) that they have to be played in a warm weather site or in a dome.
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1-1/2
perfect, some great matchups!
no one wants to see double digit spreads, bad for TV ratings
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and when that happens, they will change the rules for the future (like was done with the Super Bowl) that they have to be played in a warm weather site or in a dome.
especially if the SEC teams on the road take a beating
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I recall when Wisconsin had to play Miami in a brutally cold bowl game, it wasn't fair for them.
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and when that happens, they will change the rules for the future (like was done with the Super Bowl) that they have to be played in a warm weather site or in a dome.
It will most likely hurt the SEC travelling up north in December.
I say, Oh Well, thems the breaks. Get the better seed and host, or take your ass up to the Midwest.
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yup, there's no crying in football
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it doesn't get any better than that.........
Bama playing in Bloomington, Indiana in the snow
It wouldn't get any worse for the IU players.
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https://twitter.com/radinabulsi/status/1859283532503195789?s=61
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It wouldn't get any worse for the IU players.
https://twitter.com/radinabulsi/status/1859283532503195789?s=61
as long as you get the opportunity to race at the end of the season, it's all good
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If IU gets blown out on Saturday, they'll have the resume of any one of the dozens of mid-major programs we've seen over the years that lost their only real challenge of their season.
I'm happy for them. It's cool to be having the best season in school history in the moment. They'll have this for the rest of their lives, and that's awesome.
But they may also wind up in the playoff on the wrong end of a blowout by halftime.