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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: LittlePig on November 03, 2024, 04:47:41 AM
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Interesting enough, my top 5 did not change this week.
1. Oregon - Solid cross country win against Michigan. Ore has looked great since its 1-point win over OSU.
2. Indiana - After trailing for the first time this season, Indiana scores 47 straight points against MSU. Previous 56-7 win over Nebraska still sticks out as the measure of how good this team can be.
3. Ohio St - pulls out tough win in happy Valley. OSU looks much better one week after barely beating Nebraska.
4. Penn St - Offense struggles against OSU. Previous wins over ILL, USC and Wisc not looking as impressive after this week.
5. Iowa - has scored 40+ points in 3 home blowout wins against Wash, NW and Wisc. Iowa's new running QB Brendan Sullivan has totally changed Iowa's offense.
6. Minnesota. - impressive road victory at Illinois. Minn has won 4 straight games after an 0-2 start in the conference. Minn makes a big jump up in my power rankings.
7. Illinois - has lost to Ore, PSU and Minn. ILL has beat Mich, Neb in OT, and Pur in OT. OT wins count for less when I do my power rankings.
8. Washington - has lost to Ind, Rut, Iowa, all on the road. Wash has beat Mich, NW and now USC, all at home.
9. Michigan - has beat USC, Minn and MSU at home. Lost to Ore at home and lost to Wash and ILL on the road.
10. Michigan St - MSU is a dangerous team when they don't turn the ball over and only a danger to themselves when they do. MSU has lost to OSU, Ore, Ind and Mich. MSU has beat MD and Iowa.
11. USC - has beat Wisc and Rut at home, lost to PSU in OT at home. USC has lost to Mich, Minn, MD and Wash on the road.
12. UCLA - is UCLA suddenly a decent team? UCLA grabs surprise win on the road at Neb. UCLA has lost to Ind, Ore, PSU and Minn. UCLA has beat Rut and Neb.
13 Wisconsin - biggest dropper in my power rankings. Wisc has beat Pur, NW and Rut. Wisc has lost to PSU, Iowa and USC.
14. Nebraska - has beat Pur and Rut. Lost to ILL in OT. Lost to Ind, OSU and UCLA.
15. NW - needs OT to beat Pur a week after getting blown out by Iowa. NW still has blowout win over MD
16. Rutgers - has 1 win, over Wash
17. MD -has 1 win, over USC
18. Purdue - winless but 2 of the losses are in OT.
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1. Oregon
2. Indiana
3. Ohio State
4. Penn State
5. Iowa
6. Washington
7. Illinois
8. Michigan
9. Minnesota
10. Michigan State
11. Wisconsin
12. USC
13. Nebraska
14. Maryland
15. UCLA
16. Rutgers
17. Northwestern
18. Purdue
To be continued
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1) Ducks took it to M
2)Hoosiers another solid performance putting up 47 on the road
3)tOSU,IF the Buckeyes can stay/play that focused they might climb back into the mix
4)PSU - lost at home a game they had to have
5)Iowa - ground out an impressive vs the once stout badgers
6)Goophs beat the fading Berts
7)Illini I guess
8)Huskies - beat USC which doesn't mean what it use to
9)M
10)USC - I guess
The rest - fuggedaboutit
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1. Ohio State - Solid win over a good team on the road.
2. Oregon - Solid win against a middling team on the road.
3. Indiana - Just keeps on keeping on.
4. Penn State - Again.
5. Iowa - Steamrolled a bitter rival.
6-14. Doesn't matter. Pick any of them or throw darts.
15. Wisconsin - Embarrassed on the road, and now a week off to prepare to be crushed by #2.
16. Rutgers - Meh.
17. Northwestern - Meh Meh.
18. Purdue - I got nothing.
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(https://i.imgur.com/PvYRRYJ.png)
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How can Michigan, USC, Washington and Wisconsin all be middle of the road Big Ten teams at the same time?
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How can Michigan, USC, Washington and Wisconsin all be middle of the road Big Ten teams at the same time?
They had to get out of the way for the new powerhouse in the conference.
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They had to get out of the way for the new powerhouse in the conference.
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Hard at the top this week.
1) Ohio State: neutral field against Oregon, I'm still saying the Buckeyes. High quality win in a tough environment.
2) Oregon: went a long way on the road and dominated a probably solid, definitely talented team.
3) Indiana: WTH. I'm so confused, but also so there for the Hoosiers. Big game with Michigan coming to town, could set up an epic clash in Columbus. How weird is this!?!
4) Penn State: same as it ever was against Ohio State.
5) Iowa: best of the also rans, by a decent margin.
...
Now what?
6) Minnesota: I hate this, but beat USC, beat Illinois in C-U, and took Michigan to the bell in the Big House.
7) Michigan: on talent and legacy. I would take them over anyone below.
8) Wisconsin: but this ain't saying much. Probably need to beat Nebraska to go bowling. Need to use the bye week to get better.
9) Illinois: the shine is coming off.
10) Michigan State: losing to IU apparently isn't a terrible thing.
11) Washington: got the W.
12) USC: lost on the road to a team in the same general neighborhood of talent/record.
13) UCLA: looks like the Bruins will finish stronger than they started. Might just be a function of strength of schedule.
14) Nebraska: pushed around at home by a struggling team traveling from the west coast.
15) Northwestern: didn't look especially good against Purdue, but the next two teams below had the week off.
16) Rutgers: probably enjoyed having the week off.
17) Maryland: same.
18) Purdue: just keeps on losing.
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Last week @SFBadger96 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=51) had a comment about looking at his team (Wisconsin) and having his doubts as to whether or not he'd REALLY favor them over tOSU/M on an neutral field even when it appears that his team is better.
That is where I am with Indiana right now. If I had to make a choice and but a large sum of money on Indiana vs Oregon/PSU/tOSU, I'd pick Oregon/PSU/tOSU. That said, and to be fair, the evidence against my theory is piling up. Here are the results against common opponents that IU has with those three:
Michigan State:
- Indiana won by 37 away.
- Ohio State won by 31 away.
- Oregon won by 21 at home.
UCLA:
- Indiana won by 29 away.
- Oregon won by 21 away.
- Penn State won by 16 at home.
Nebraska:
- Indiana won by 49 at home.
- Ohio State won by 4 at home.
This week we will pick up a few more comparitives:
Michigan:
- Oregon won by 21 in AA.
- Indiana hosts them on Saturday.
Maryland:
- Indiana won by 14 at home.
- Oregon hosts them on Saturday.
Washington:
- Indiana won by 14 at home.
- Penn State hosts them on Saturday.
For now:
- Indiana looked slightly better than tOSU and significantly better than Oregon against MSU.
- Indiana looked slightly better than Oregon and significantly better than PSU against UCLA.
- Indiana looked a LOT better than tOSU against Nebraska.
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What is really weird is that Indiana has managed to play two-thirds of their league schedule and these are their opponents so far:
- 3-3 Washington, home
- 2-4 Nebraska, home
- 2-4 Michigan State, away
- 2-4 Northwestern, away
- 2-4 UCLA, away
- 1-4 Maryland, home
This week they get Michigan so that should change things except that Michigan is 3-3 and the Hoosiers get them at home so maybe not.
Next week the Hoosiers have the week off so if they manage to beat the Wolverines they will likely go into the final two weeks of the season having not yet played a team that is above .500 in the league. That is NUTS!
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Last week in parentheses...
- OREGON (2) - cross country wins are never easy
- OHIO STATE (3) - one of the best road wins that any team in the country has
- INDIANA (4) - defense and special teams aren't going to get enough of the credit
- PENN STATE (1) - if this wasn't the year, when is?
- IOWA (8) - MSU loss looks like the exception, not the rule
- WASHINGTON (7) - defense did just enough
- MINNESOTA (12) - best vibes in Minneapolis since the 2019 Penn State win?
- ILLINOIS (6) - not nearly enough talent around Altmeyer
- WISCONSIN (5) - defense has gotten diced by backup QBs over the past 6 quarters
- MICHIGAN (10) - lose by 21 at home and move up, because
- UCLA (15) - maybe turning a corner under Foster?
- NEBRASKA (9) - Nebraska fans can't believe this is happening again
- MICHIGAN STATE (11) - the Chiles turnovers are back to being a problem
- MARYLAND (13) - bye week
- USC (14) - woof
- RUTGERS (16) - bye week
- NORTHWESTERN (17) - whatever
- PURDUE (18) - whatever -1
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Updated SOR/SP+ CFP bracket
- #12 Boise State at #5 Texas; winner vs. #4 BYU
- #11 Texas A&M at #6 OHIO STATE; winner vs. #3 Miami
- #10 Alabama at #7 PENN STATE; winner vs. #2 OREGON
- #9 Tennessee at #8 INDIANA; winner vs. #1 Georgia
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USC wrecked the PAC to lose on the road to
USC wrecked the PAC to lose on the road to Minnesota and Maryland
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USC wrecked the PAC to get paid a lot of money to lose on the road to Minnesota and Maryland
FTFY
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I hope they get paid handsomely to lose at home in a couple weeks!
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Matt McMaster has released his latest set of Big Ten Football Power Rankings.
18. Purdue (1-7, 0-5 Big Ten) [Last Week: 17]
The quality of football was higher than I anticipated, but they still lost to a bad football team so the Boilermakers are back in the cellar.
17. Rutgers (4-4, 1-4 Big Ten) [Last Week:18]
Bye Week.
16. Northwestern (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) [Last Week: 16]
They got a win over a team they’re better than. Should it have gone to OT? No. Do they lose credibility because they nearly lost to one of the worst teams in the country? Yes? Will this team win another game? Doubtful.
15. USC (4-5, 2-5 Big Ten) [Last Week: 12]
They suck and Lincoln Riley’s time in USC is coming to an end. They announced that they’ll be using the bye week to make a quarterback change. It’s too little too late to turn this season to forget around for the Trojans.
14. Maryland (4-4, 1-4 Big Ten) [Last Week:13]
Bye Week.
13. UCLA (3-5, 2-4 Big Ten) [Last Week:15]
I told people all week that UCLA being a touchdown underdog against Nebraska was a mistake. Despite their record the Bruins have competed hard all season long and still have credible talent to win games. They’ll have a real opportunity to win three of their last four games of the year.
12. Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) [Last Week: 11]
Can’t blame them for getting blown out by Indiana. It seems like it’s happening to everyone these days.
11. Washington (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) [Last Week: 14]
Good win against a bad team. I can’t get a read on the Huskies but they’ve proven they’re a tier above the garbage heap of the conference but you truly never know what Washington team you’re going to get week in and week out.
10. Nebraska (5-4, 2-4 Big Ten) [Last Week: 8]
Embarrassing. Embarrassing. Embarrassing. There is no other way to put it. This team takes four steps forward and then promptly takes eight steps back. Matt Rhule needs to find a win in his final three games of the season because if the Big Red go bowl-less after starting the season 5-1, the uproar from such a loyal fan base will be deafening.
9. Michigan (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) [Last Week: 9]
The season of nightmares continues to get worse for the Wolverines. Plain and simple, this team can beat chumps but can’t hang with the big dogs.
8. Wisconsin (5-4,3-3 Big Ten) [Last Week: 7]
They just got physically beaten by Iowa on Saturday. They couldn’t get anything going in either the pass or run game and could not deal with the physicality of the Iowa offense on defense. They were pushed around for 60 minutes.
7. Illinois (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) [Last Week: 5]
Illinois lost this week 25-17 in an incredibly competitive game against Minnesota at home. This has been a really tough stretch for Illinois over the last three weeks. They picked up an incredibly emotional win over Michigan, followed that up with the herculean task of taking on No. 1 Oregon on the road and it ended losing a tight contest to one of the hottest teams in the country. I still believe in this team and think they will come out better after this much needed bye week.
6. Iowa (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) [Last Week: 10]
It was a dominant win over a white hot Wisconsin team over the weekend for Iowa. I have so much respect for what Kirk Ferentz has done this season. He finally decided to say screw the pass we are going to double down on the run, and it worked. Making the switch to Brendan Sullivan made an already great running game deadlier. I think the Hawkeyes put themselves in a vulnerable spot if they get down in games early with their inability to throw the ball downfield. But they don’t have anyone on their team who can do that, so riding with Sullivan and doubling down on the run with a dominant defense behind them is a stellar move.
5. Minnesota (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) [Last Week: 6]
I’ve been getting some pushback about how bullish I’ve been on this Minnesota squad and I’m glad they backed me up with a gutsy 25-17 victory against a ranked Illinois team on the road. Their secondary is elite and they’ve found a tremendous balance on offense. Darius Taylor and Max Brosmer continue to get better as the season progresses as this team continues to build momentum down the final stretch of the year.
4. Penn State (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) [Last Week: 2]
It’s hard to penalize Penn State for losing close to Ohio State, but at some point James Franklin and company needs to win games like these. This was their best chance to finally get over the hump and they failed. The Nittany Lions will find their way into the CFP but that’s probably as far as their accomplishments go for this season.
3. Indiana (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) [Last Week: 4]
WINdiana is for real. They got the jump from the get-go against Michigan State, making a lot of people think “finally here comes the collapse,” but they did not give in. After a challenging first quarter they scored 47 straight points, defeating MSU 47-10. Insanity is the best way to describe what's going on in Bloomington. The way Curt Cignetti had his team regroup and whoop Spartan tail was astounding. This run they’re on is not a flash in the pan, the Hoosiers are national title contenders.
2. Ohio State (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) [Last Week: 3]
Really impressive win by the Buckeyes against the No. 3 team in the country. Donovan Jackson did an incredible job filling in at tackle and even though this offensive line is being held together by duct tape, it was good enough to beat one of the best teams in the country.
1. Oregon (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) [Last Week: 1]
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Massey Composite Computer Rankings - 89 rankings (last week in parentheses)
- OREGON (1)
- OHIO STATE (2)
- Miami (4)
- INDIANA (9)
- Georgia (6)
- Texas (5)
- Alabama (8)
- Notre Dame (7)
- PENN STATE (3)
- BYU (10)
- Tennessee (13)
- Ole Miss (17)
- SMU (20)
- Boise State (15)
- Iowa State (11)
- LSU (19)
- Texas A&M (12)
- South Carolina (23)
- Louisville (22)
- Kansas State (14)
- Clemson (16)
- Pittsburgh (18)
- IOWA (25)
- Colorado (21)
- Washington State (24)
- 27. Minnesota (38)
- 36. USC (28)
- 38. Michigan (31)
- 41. Washington (50)
- 42. Illinois (30)
- 43. Wisconsin (32)
- 50. Nebraska (37)
- 58. UCLA (70)
- 62. Maryland (61)
- 63. Michigan State (57)
- 71. Rutgers (68)
- 76. Northwestern (83)
- 115. Purdue (111)
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At least Indiana gets some respect in the computer polls.
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At least Indiana gets some respect in the computer polls.
A good deal of them are predictive models, so they factor in MOV more than human polls tend to, which simply look at who you beat. It's why the best MSU teams were always lower in the predictive models. They never blew teams out. Even the 2013 team, which went 9-0 in Big Ten play, and became the first team in Big Ten history to go undefeated while winning every game by double digits, was low on blowouts. Off the top of my head, Illinois was the only team they blew out that year
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(https://i.imgur.com/mD5mOyM.jpeg)
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(https://i.imgur.com/MUWWTTU.png)
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Iowa @ UCLA (+6.5)
Sneaky stat of the week: the UCLA Bruins have one of the best-run defenses in the country. Despite their 3-5 record, they rank in the top 15 in opponent yards per rush and opponent yards per game. With Brendan Sullivan under the center for the Hawkeyes, they’ve doubled down on their run game. This is a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes, who are traveling a long way to play the Bruins, who have a lot of momentum after their win against Nebraska.
The Pick: UCLA +6.5
Purdue @ Ohio State (-38)
I’ve been using a “Pick against Purdue” strategy in my own betting life and it’s been working beautifully for me. I could not care less that 38 points is an insane number to give up against a Power 4 team in November; Purdue is that bad. I implore you to take up this strategy and take the Buckeyes.
The Pick: Ohio State -38
Minnesota @ Rutgers (+5.5)
My head tells me to pick Minnesota in this one. They’re red hot, coming off of a massive win against a ranked Illinois team playing a Rutgers squad who haven’t won a game since September. My heart tells me this line is a trap. It’s just too good to be true, and Vegas knows something that I don’t. I’m going to fade my brain and take the Knights.
The Pick: Rutgers +5.5
Michigan @ Indiana (-14.5)
Indiana has been kicking the snot out of everyone this season and Michigan has been on the end of couple themselves. Imagine looking at this line and typing out that sentence to begin the year. I don’t think anything changes this Saturday. Give me the Hoosiers.
The Pick: Indiana (-14.5)
Maryland @ Oregon (-23.5)
It’s still so crazy to me that this is a Big Ten matchup in today's modern Big Ten. This line is puzzling to me. Illinois was a ranked team traveling from a central time zone and was a 22-point underdog. Maryland is a much worse team traveling from the east coast and are only being given 23.5 points. The Ducks covered against the Illini; they'll cover against the Terrapins.
The Pick: Oregon -23.5
Washington @ Penn State (-12.5)
This is the easiest game of the week. Penn State is coming off an underrated loss, Washington is coming off of an overblown win. Give me the Nittany Lions everyday of the week.
The Pick: Penn State -12.5 (McMaster's Lock of the Week)
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A good deal of them are predictive models, so they factor in MOV more than human polls tend to, which simply look at who you beat. It's why the best MSU teams were always lower in the predictive models. They never blew teams out. Even the 2013 team, which went 9-0 in Big Ten play, and became the first team in Big Ten history to go undefeated while winning every game by double digits, was low on blowouts. Off the top of my head, Illinois was the only team they blew out that year
Apparently Indiana has a better MOV than Michigan had through 9 games last year against a schedule of East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, and Michigan was #3.
So the computers recognizes resume, the committee recognizes helmet. If Penn State or USC or Michigan or Ohio State or Nebraska had Indiana's resume, they'd be top 4
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The Pick: UCLA +6.5
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We can stop ranking beyond the top 4 teams. They all suck, and its pretty much just who is at home
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We can stop ranking beyond the top 4 teams. They all suck, and its pretty much just who is at home
Actually, maybe medina can figure out how many road wins the bottom 14 have against each other. Maybe Northwestern and Purdue are a tier below the other 12?
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We can stop ranking beyond the top 4 teams. They all suck, and its pretty much just who is at home
Lol, I was just going to post the exact same thought.
Iowa and Minn both tanked on the road this weekend. Clearly nobody wants the #5 spot in the power rankings
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Actually, maybe medina can figure out how many road wins the bottom 14 have against each other. Maybe Northwestern and Purdue are a tier below the other 12?
I was just wondering to myself how in the world did Iowa manage to win at Minnesota earlier in the season. Then later Minn won at UCLA. So of course Iowa lost at UCLA.
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it's football
it's crazy
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Gophers lost at Rutgers
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Gophers lost at Rutgers
Yes, nobody seems to want the #5 spot in the power rankings.
BUT Minn has won at UCLA and at ILL.. that may be enough to still make them #5.
BUT Minn also lost at home to Iowa.
Ugh, next week's power rankings are to be a mess. Maybe it's time to make UCLA the new #5. The have road wins at Rutgers and Neb.
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UCLA was once 18
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That was because we thought Indiana was the team we are used to, not this version.
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Actually, maybe medina can figure out how many road wins the bottom 14 have against each other. Maybe Northwestern and Purdue are a tier below the other 12?
If so, would anyone care?
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If so, would anyone care?
As far as projections? Yes.
If we project the bottom 14 to all win at home against each other vs. projecting road wins against Purdue and Northwestern
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projections?
we talkin bout projections?
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(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQUIxK2RQmMSYLPTdhdh4KlldQJSEAdwTuj-A&s)