CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 29, 2024, 05:20:09 PM
-
IMHO, there are four practical contenders:
- 5-0/8-0 #1 Oregon
- 5-0/8-0 #3 Penn State
- 5-0/8-0 #13 Indiana
- 3-1/6-1 #4 Ohio State
None of them control their own destiny mathematically but I think that all but Indiana control their own destiny as a practical matter.
Mathematically:
The three undefeated teams do not play each other so for each of them winning out still leaves the possibility of a 3-way tie. That tie would be resolved by cumulative league record of league opponents (SOS) and at present that heavily favors Oregon and Penn State over Indiana but there are no guarantees.
Ohio State obviously can't go undefeated but winning out would give PSU and IU each a loss. Ohio State would win a three-way tie with IU and PSU but, theoretically, Oregon could lose a game thus creating a 4-way tie at 8-1 between the Ducks, Lions, Hoosiers, and Buckeyes. In that case the H2H2H2H records would be:
- 1-0 Oregon (beat tOSU)
- 2-1 Ohio State (beat PSU and IU, lost to Ore)
- 0-1 Penn State (lost to tOSU)
- 0-1 Indiana (lost to tOSU)
Based on that one would *THINK* that the CG would be Oregon/tOSU but one would be wrong. The B1G rules stipulate that H2H only prevails if one team defeated all of the others and none of them did so we'd move to the next tiebreaker, SoS. This HEAVILY favors Ohio State so, as a practical matter, the Buckeyes control their own destiny because they would win pretty much any plausible tie.
The rest:
There are five 2-loss teams (IL, IA, M, MN, UW) and they are all mathematically in the race but as a practical matter they would all need an extremely unlikely amount of chaos to have a shot.
-
Good analysis.
-
Which 2-loss team would require the most chaos in order to have a shot?
-
Which 2-loss team would require the most chaos in order to have a shot?
My guess is Illinois because they already have H2H losses to both Oregon and Penn State. Consequently, they would lose most ties and thus they would need a LOT of chaos to get in even if they won out.
That said, Illinois winning out isn't all that unlikely. They've already played their three toughest games (@Ore, @PSU, vsM). What remains are four games that they frankly should win (vsMN, vsMSU, @NU, @RU). For them I think that getting to 7-2 is the easy part relative to finding a way into the CG at 7-2.
FWIW:
I think that Michigan would need the least chaos because winning out for them would involve giving losses to Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State. That would put them in a really good position regarding tiebreakers. The funny part is that the clearest path for Michigan to get in is for Ohio State to win a lot of games. Here is the scenario:
- Michigan wins out and finishes 7-2 with H2H wins over IU, Ore, and tOSU.
- Other than losing the finale to Michigan, Ohio State wins out and finishes 7-2.
- The above gives Indiana two losses.
- That could create a multi-team tie for 2nd that Michigan just might win.
-
If Purdue beats Northwestern, then there would be five teams tied for last place with only one conference win.
-
If Purdue beats Northwestern, then there would be five teams tied for last place with only one conference win.
On the other hand, whoever loses between NW and Purdue, they will have 5 losses and will be officially eliminated from the Big Ten championship race.
-
On the other hand, whoever loses between NW and Purdue, they will have 5 losses and will be officially eliminated from the Big Ten championship race.
Yep, mathematical elimination starts today.
If Indiana and Oregon both win all the 4-loss teams will also be eliminated.
-
On the other hand, whoever loses between NW and Purdue, they will have 5 losses and will be officially eliminated from the Big Ten championship race.
(https://i.imgur.com/pOBqJfw.png)
-
What would have to happen for the Purdue-Northwestern winner to get in?
-
What would have to happen for the Purdue-Northwestern winner to get in?
It honestly probably isn't mathematically possible.
-
Then how can they not be mathematically eliminated yet?
-
Then how can they not be mathematically eliminated yet?
Because I said "probably", I haven't actually run out the scenarios.
-
Now there are only six teams with 2 or fewer losses.
-
Yup, with week 10 now completed, any team with 4 or more losses is now officially eliminated from the Big Ten championship race.
So that means the following 8 teams are officially eliminated.
Pur, Rut, MD, USC, NW, MSU, Neb and UCLA
The following 4 teams have 3 losses and could be eliminated if they lose 1 more game, or if both Oregon and Indiana win 1 more game.
Wisc, Mich, Wash, ILL
And that doesn't even get into potential tiebreakers if any of those 4 teams end up in a tie for 1st or 2nd place at 6-3. So yeah any team with 3 losses is very, very close to eliminated.