CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 08, 2024, 04:26:19 PM
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We have a new #1 for the fourth time this season but Texas is only the third team to be #1 because they are being recycled. So far this year:
- Georgia was #1 in the Preseason Poll and after the first two weeks.
- Texas was #1 in weeks 3 and 4 and is #1 again in week 6.
- Alabama held the #1 spot for a single week, week 5.
It is worth noting that it isn't terribly unlikely that #1 will change again this week, there are two distinct possibilities:
- Although they are a big favorite, Texas is playing a ranked team in a rivalry game this weekend so it isn't crazy to say that they could lose.
- #2 Ohio State is less than 50 points behind Texas and plays #3 Oregon this weekend. A big win by either Ohio State or Oregon could be enough for them to leapfrog over Texas even if the Longhorns win the Red River Rivalry.
Texas' appearance at #1 is their 48th in the 1,240 AP Polls released since 1936. Texas has been #1 in almost 4% of the polls released and they are 10th all-time in appearances at #1 and just six behind #9 Georgia. All-time #1 appearances:
- 141 Bama, 11.4% of polls, currently #7
- 105 Ohio State, 8.5%, #2
- 101 Oklahoma, 8.1%, #18
- 98 Notre Dame, 7.9%, #11
- 91 USC, 7.3%, nr but #1 among ORV
- 72 Florida State, 5.8%, nr
- 70 Nebraska, 5.6%, nr but #2 among ORV
- 68 Miami, 5.5%, #6
- 54 Georgia, 4.4%, #5
- 48 Texas, 3.9%, #1
Bama's lead here is staggering. At 36 spots behind them, the #2 Buckeyes are closer OU, ND, USC, FSU, and UNL than they are to #1 Bama.
The current top-5 are all in the top-22 most frequent top-5 teams of all-time and all but #22 Oregon are in the top-13 all time. All-time top-5 appearances:
- 463 Bama, 37.3% of polls, currently #7
- 439 Ohio State, 35.4%, #2
- 431 Oklahoma, 34.8%, #18
- 325 Michigan, 26.2%, #24
- 319 Notre Dame, 25.7, #11
- 296 Nebraska, 23.9%, nr but #2 among ORV
- 286 USC, 23.1%, nr but #1 among ORV
- 280 Texas, 22.6%, #1
- 257 Florida State, 20.7%, nr
- 204 Miami, 16.5%, #6
- 195 Georgia, 15.7%, #5
- 188 Florida, 15.2%, nr
- 173 Penn State, 14%, #3
Teams in the current top-5 are in bold so as you can see, Ohio State is making major progress here since they are the only of the seven most frequent top-5 teams to be in the current top-5.
Most of the current top-10 are frequent-fliers in this realm. All-time top-10 appearances:
- 708 Ohio State, 57.1% of polls, currently #2
- 634 Bama, 51.1%, #7
- 630 Oklahoma, 50.8%, #18
- 592 Notre Dame, 47.7%, #11
- 568 Michigan, 45.8%, #24
- 518 Nebraska, 41.8%, nr but #2 among ORV
- 493 USC, 39.8%, nr but #1 among ORV
- 474 Texas, 38.2%, #1
- 419 Penn State, 33.8%, #4
- 385 Florida State, 31%, nr
- 375 Georgia, 30.2%, #5
- 357 Florida, 28.8%, nr
- 339 Tennessee, 27.3%, #8
- 327 Louisiana State, 26.4%, #13
- 314 Miami, 25.3%, #6
- 296 Auburn, 23.9%, nr
- 225 UCLA, 18.1%, nr
- 215 Clemson, 17.4%, #10
Teams in bold are in the current top-10. The other two members of the current top-10 are #3 Oregon and #9 Ole Miss. They are #23 and #27 all time with 177 and 140 appearances respectively. As you can see, Ohio State and Bama are pulling away because they are the only of the seven most frequent top-10 teams in the current top-10.
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Spots that could change hands this year:
As mentioned above, current #1 Texas has 48 total appearances at #1 which is 10th all-time and just six spots behind #9 Georgia. The Dawgs get a shot at Texas in 10 days. Here is Texas' upcoming schedule:
- vs OU in Dallas on 10/12. If they hold #1 after this, that will be 49.
- vs UGA in Austin on 10/19. That would be 50.
- @ Vandy on 10/26. That would be 51 but don't sleep on the Commodores, @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) pointed out that they have a winning record against the Longhorns and they just took out #1 Bama so . . .
- Off on November 2. That would be 52.
- vs Florida on November 9. That would be 53.
- @ Arkansas on November 16. That would be 54 and a tie with Georgia.
- vs Kentucky on November 23, that would be 55 and moving up to #9 all-time.
- @ aTm on November 30, that would be 56.
- SECCG on December 7, that would be 57.
FWIW: There are no plausible threats to catch Texas this year. #11 is Florida and they are seven spots back and currently unranked. #12 is LSU and they are 10 spots back and already have a loss.
Looking at the whole list, obviously #1 Bama is safe for the foreseeable future. They have 36 more appearances at #1 than Ohio State so it would take more than two years for anybody to catch Bama.
#2 Ohio State could mathematically be caught by #3 OU (4 spots back) or #4 ND (7 spots back) but this is exceedingly unlikely because both the Sooners and the Irish have already taken a loss so they can't realistically climb to #1 early enough to catch the Buckeyes this year. Consequently, the top-5 will not change this year.
The interesting team is Miami. They are 8th in all-time #1 appearances but only two spots behind #7 Nebraska and four spots behind #6 Florida State. The Hurricanes are also undefeated and currently ranked #6 so those spots are in play.
Georgia can't catch Miami this year because they have 14 less #1 appearances than the Hurricanes and there aren't 14 more polls this year.
Interesting B1G-related side note. Minnesota has 18 appearances at #1 which is tied with Tennessee for 19th all-time. This is also 7th best in even the expanded B1G trailing only tOSU, USC, UNL, M, MSU, and PSU. The sad thing is that their last such appearance was in the final poll of the 1960 season. At that time they were fourth all-time trailing only:
- 46 Notre Dame
- 27 Army
- 26 Oklahoma
The Gophers at that time had more #1 appearances than:
- Bama, 0
- Ohio State, 11
- USC, 1
- FSU, 0
- Nebraska, 0
- Miami, 0
- Georgia, 3
The problem for the Gophers, of course, is that in 993 polls since 1960 they have only been ranked 66 times and never higher than 3rd.
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- @ Vandy on 10/26. That would be 51 but don't sleep on the Commodores, @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) pointed out that they have a winning record against the Longhorns and they just took out #1 Bama so . . .
Well I mean, the last game played between the two teams was almost 100 years ago in 1928 so I'm not sure the record is all that relevant, but going on evidence from this year alone-- yes, Vandy is certainly capable of beating a #1 team.
Obviously. :)
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Well I mean, the last game played between the two teams was almost 100 years ago in 1928 so I'm not sure the record is all that relevant, but going on evidence from this year alone-- yes, Vandy is certainly capable of beating a #1 team.
Obviously. :)
How do you feel about this weekend? Both the RR game and the possibility of either tOSU or Ore getting a big win and jumping to even if Texas wins?
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How do you feel about this weekend? Both the RR game and the possibility of either tOSU or Ore getting a big win and jumping to even if Texas wins?
I think Texas should win. On paper pretty much all of the stats and adjusted stats lean Texas' way. But Texas was better on paper last year too, and still lost a close one. It's an extremely emotional rivalry game and upsets happen pretty frequently.
Regardless I think it's likely that the Ohio State-Oregon winner will jump Texas to the #1 spot. I think Texas would REALLY have to blow out the Sooners to prevent that from happening, something like the 49-0 win from two years ago, and I just don't see that happening. Those types of games are quite rare in this series.
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I think Texas should win. On paper pretty much all of the stats and adjusted stats lean Texas' way. But Texas was better on paper last year too, and still lost a close one. It's an extremely emotional rivalry game and upsets happen pretty frequently.
Regardless I think it's likely that the Ohio State-Oregon winner will jump Texas to the #1 spot. I think Texas would REALLY have to blow out the Sooners to prevent that from happening, something like the 49-0 win from two years ago, and I just don't see that happening. Those types of games are quite rare in this series.
From my perspective, I am a lot less convinced that the tOSU/Ore winner will jump Texas.
It is definitely a distinct possibility because obviously beating an undefeated #2/3 will get more attention than beating a #18 team that already lost at home. OTOH, Texas has some things going for them. Oklahoma isn't chopped liver. They may not be undefeated and top-3 like either tOSU's or Ore's victim will be, but they ARE ranked and I think the voters understand the dynamic of rivalries so they would be more likely to give the Longhorns a pass if they squeak past OU than if Texas were to squeak past a similar team that wasn't a rival.
The other issue is that road games are hard and road games as far away as Eugene Oregon is from Columbus Ohio are harder. I read that B1G teams travelling 2+ timezones for a conference game are 1-8 so far this year. My guess is that Ohio State is probably a better team than Oregon but I'd also tell you that I think USC is better than Minnesota and Michigan is better than Washington yet the Trojans and Wolverines both lost in those 2+ timezone road games. As I see it, I think it is pretty unlikely that the Buckeyes are going to blow the Ducks out of the stadium so if the Buckeyes do manage to win I'm thinking it will be close and probably not enough to jump the Longhorns without Texas losing. Alternatively, if the Ducks win I think the voters are cognizant that these long road trips are tough so I think they'll somewhat discount Oregon's win on that basis.
We'll see.
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F the Canes
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F the Canes
And hurricanes too.
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And hurricanes too.
No shit.
We LOVE living here, but there is a price to pay.
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How's it going so far bf? Any new issues or are things getting better?
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So far, so good. Power went out. We're om Gemi and Verizon MiFi.
Listening to Wink on radio. No TV. I'll hook up the rabbit ears tomorrow.
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If the rising water isn't a problem you should be fine, we all hope.
It sounds a little like it was less serious than many feared. Hopefully.
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From my perspective, I am a lot less convinced that the tOSU/Ore winner will jump Texas.
It is definitely a distinct possibility because obviously beating an undefeated #2/3 will get more attention than beating a #18 team that already lost at home. OTOH, Texas has some things going for them. Oklahoma isn't chopped liver. They may not be undefeated and top-3 like either tOSU's or Ore's victim will be, but they ARE ranked and I think the voters understand the dynamic of rivalries so they would be more likely to give the Longhorns a pass if they squeak past OU than if Texas were to squeak past a similar team that wasn't a rival.
The other issue is that road games are hard and road games as far away as Eugene Oregon is from Columbus Ohio are harder. I read that B1G teams travelling 2+ timezones for a conference game are 1-8 so far this year. My guess is that Ohio State is probably a better team than Oregon but I'd also tell you that I think USC is better than Minnesota and Michigan is better than Washington yet the Trojans and Wolverines both lost in those 2+ timezone road games. As I see it, I think it is pretty unlikely that the Buckeyes are going to blow the Ducks out of the stadium so if the Buckeyes do manage to win I'm thinking it will be close and probably not enough to jump the Longhorns without Texas losing. Alternatively, if the Ducks win I think the voters are cognizant that these long road trips are tough so I think they'll somewhat discount Oregon's win on that basis.
We'll see.
Yup, we'll see. Hopefully Texas whips the dirt burglars something like 77-0 and puts it beyond all doubt. ;)
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Yup, we'll see. Hopefully Texas whips the dirt burglars something like 77-0 and puts it beyond all doubt. ;)
Well congratulations, it worked out about as well as possible for your Longhorns. They not only held onto #1 but they actually extended their lead:
- Last week they led in #1 votes 52-9 over tOSU, this week they lead 56-6 over Oregon.
- Last week they led in points by 43, 1516-1473 over tOSU, this week they lead by 51, 1544-1493 over Oregon.
I think the set-up was near-perfect for Texas. They blew Oklahoma out and the tOSU/Oregon game was just about the least decisive possible result*.
*I'm probably going to catch flack for that but it isn't a "pro-OSU" thing, I just mean from Texas' perspective. The lower ranked team, playing at home, won by the narrowest possible margin. What would have really jeopardized Texas' perch at #1 would have been a blow-out by either team in the 2/3 game but particularly by the higher ranked team which was playing on the road.
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Oddly enough, if Team ranked say #5 blows out some team ranked #15, versus beating them but not a blow out, the $15 drops to maybe #20, but after a blowout they usually drop to URRV. The blowout doesn't really help #5 relative to a nice win.
You're better off, in rankings, with a solid convincingly win, say 27-10, versus 48-3.
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(https://i.imgur.com/XGVDbTZ.png)