CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on October 08, 2024, 11:00:11 AM
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Teams with 1st Loss Week 6:
UNLV
Alabama
Tennessee
Missouri
Rutgers
James Madison
Duke
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 6:
Iowa
California
Michigan
Southern California
South Carolina
Louisville
Boston College
Central Florida
Arizona
Teams with 1st Win Week 6:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 8 (6 by last weeks standards)
-By last weeks standards, we lost the potential for two more undefeated teams with the loss of our last undefeated teams from both the Sun Belt and the Mountain West. This would have taken us down to 6 teams who could finish undefeated in each of the Power 4 conferences plus the American and Conference USA.
-Looking at schedules the rest of the way, you could theoretically have an undefeated BYU or Iowa State left out of the Big 12 Championship in place of a 1-loss Colorado (out of conference loss) and you could have 3 undefeated teams in the Big Ten (Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State).
Maximum Number of Games between Undefeated Teams in the Regular Season: 6
-Three in the Big Ten, and one each in the ACC, American, and Big 12 (the latter three would all have to be conference championship games).
Week 6 Thoughts:
-What a week. Vanderbilt over Alabama was definitely not really on my radar. In the last two weeks, the SEC has had 5 top 10 teams take a loss (Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee, and Missouri). The race the rest of the way in the SEC is very interesting. The margin of error is small for everyone to make the playoff and smaller for the SEC Championship. Two losses will be acceptable for some, but maybe not everyone for the playoff. At the very least, none of those teams can afford two more losses.
-The 2nd level of Big Ten ranked teams were hit this week too as we saw both Michigan and USC fall. The top level of current ranked teams in Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon all benefited for the chaos of the week.
-SMU is having a wonderful first year experience in the ACC so far. Taking down a ranked Louisville puts them in the rankings themselves. The ACC was fortunate to have Miami pull off a win in what felt like a trap game to me at Cal. Getting two teams in is still doable, but you almost certainly need two undefeated/1-loss teams at the end.
-Iowa State has made it to 5-0 and Texas Tech won the battle of 1-loss teams vs. Arizona. I think the Big 12 is in a similar position to the ACC in that getting two in will require two undefeated/1-loss teams available. Too much parity is an enemy.
-The Group of 5 race was turned on its head a lot this week. UNLV couldn't quite close it out vs. Syracuse in a game that would have given the Mountain West a huge leg up (although the conference is still in pretty good shape this year). James Madison fell to 1-loss Louisiana-Monroe. The Sun Belt is not out of it with that loss, but an undefeated James Madison with the blowout win over North Carolina was their best bet. Looking forward, my best guess (and just my guess after watching them for awhile) of the playoff committee order would be something like this:
1. Undefeated Army/Navy
2. 1-loss Mountain West Champ
3. 1-loss American Champ
4. Undefeated Liberty
A Mountain West 1-loss over an American 1-loss in a bit out of character for the committee, but I lean to it this year. In the American, Tulane is actually the betting favorite to win it all rather than Army/Navy, but there will be a lot more attention on the conference than the other Group of 5 conferences if Army and/or Navy is involved (the Army/Navy game complication will give it an extra push). I don't personally think Liberty would have gotten the spot vs. stronger competition last year the way the committee has played things out and think they need a bit of chaos again this year (could well happen though). Once we get past that part of the list, I think things are mostly a crap shoot. It will come down to specific teams involved a lot more than can look/guess at now.
Week 7 Thoughts:
Undefeated Ohio State at Undefeated Oregon: New Big Ten vs. old Big Ten. The winner might jump Texas for #1 in the country while the loser is still in a good spot for the playoffs. Ohio State could recover easier for Big Ten Championship Game as they still play both Indiana and Penn State, but also probably couldn't afford to lose one of those (especially at Penn State) and make it to Indianapolis.
Florida International at Undefeated Liberty (Tuesday): Liberty is a huge favorite here. Given strength of schedule though, Liberty's best shot at the playoff spot is not just to win, but look really good doing it. Style points matter at least a little.
1-loss Coastal Carolina at 1-loss James Madison (Thursday): James Madison's CFP hopes took a hit with last week's loss, but a 1-loss Sun Belt champ is still in the race so this game matters for both. James Madison would still probably be the stronger contender with the North Carolina win unless Virginia, who beat Coastal Carolina, surprises in the ACC. Loser of this game is out of the CFP race. If James Madison loses, they are probably also out of the Sun Belt race. James Madison is favored by 10.
1-loss Memphis at South Florida (Friday): Memphis not getting a lot of CFP love, but as long as they stay with 1-loss are still in the race.
1-loss Utah at 1-loss Arizona State (Friday): A battle of 1-loss Big 12 teams. A 2nd conference loss for either would likely sink any CFP hopes and make the Big 12 race a very uphill climb. Utah is a road favorite.
Ball State at winless Kent State: Kent State is at home, with a week off, and playing a 1-win team. They are still a touchdown underdog, but have a lot going for them here.
Undefeated Texas vs. 1-loss Oklahoma: The Red River Shootout feels a bit smaller to me in the SEC, but this game is still big. Texas is the last undefeated in the SEC after the last few weeks chaos. A win for Oklahoma would put them in the CFP talk.
Undefeated Penn State at USC: Another undefeated Big Ten team going to the west coast. USC took a hit last week heading east to Minnesota (odd saying that as it was the western part of the conference until this year). Now, Penn State has to take the cross country trip to them. Penn State is a 5 point favorite. The Big Ten would prefer Penn State to win this given its ranking. Those wanting fewer Big Ten and/or SEC teams would be better off rooting for USC.
Cal at Undefeated Pitt: A week after scaring an undefeated Miami at home, the bears travel to Pitt as a small underdog. Pitt has just entered the rankings and can start moving up quickly with more wins.
Arizona at Undefeated BYU: BYU is a 4.5 point home favorite here. If they keep winning, it definitely helps the Big 12's chances at two.
1-loss San Jose State at Colorado State: San Jose State is a point favorite here. Keeping the top of the Mountain West stronger is generally better for the conference's playoff chances even if San Jose State is not the team.
1-loss Washington State at Fresno State: I don't think Washington State can make the CFP at this point, but this is still a future PAC-12 match-up and the line is close.
1-loss Ole Miss at 1-loss LSU: Winner is very alive for the playoff, while the loser would needs everything perfect the rest of the way. Ole Miss is a 2.5 point favorite.
Undefeated Iowa State at West Virginia: The longer Iowa State can win, the better for the Big 12. That said, West Virginia is still alive for the Big 12 race (no conference losses) and has a lot to play for as a 3 point underdog at home.
1-loss Syracuse at North Carolina State: Syracuse beat a previously ranked UNLV last week. The ACC could use them to keep winning and get into the rankings.
1-loss Kansas State at 1-loss Colorado: Another battle of 1-loss Big 12 teams. The winner is very alive for the Big 12 title and CFP. Kansas State would have 2 conference losses with a loss here so especially cannot afford it. The wildcats are 4 point favorites.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 4, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 0, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 0, total: 12
Miami (FL)
Iowa State
Texas
Pittsburgh
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Brigham Young
Oregon
Army
Navy
Liberty
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 5, American: 2, Big 12: 5, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 8, Sun Belt: 4, independents: 1, total 34
Clemson
Southern Methodist
Virginia
Syracuse
North Texas
Memphis
Colorado
Texas Tech
Kansas State
Utah
Arizona State
Illinois
Nebraska
Sam Houston
Eastern Michigan
Toledo
San Jose State
Boise State
Texas A&M
Louisiana State
Oklahoma
Georgia
Mississippi
Coastal Carolina
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
UNLV
Alabama
Tennessee
Rutgers
James Madison
Duke
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 2, MAC: 1, total: 3
UTEP
(Kennesaw State)
Kent State
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Undefeated Texas vs. 1-loss Oklahoma: The Red River Shootout feels a bit smaller to me in the SEC, but this game is still big. Texas is the last undefeated in the SEC after the last few weeks chaos. A win for Oklahoma would put them in the CFP talk
At first I felt like this was an odd thing for you to say, but then I thought about Michigan-Ohio State in the new, much larger and more diluted B1G, and I realized I feel the exact same way about that game. The sheer size of these conferences is diminishing the importance of individual games, even historically celebrated rivalries.
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especially with no divisions in the conference and a 12-team playoff
Horns could lose to the Sooners and still play in the SEC champ game and get a top 4 seed or even better, the coveted 5th seed