CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2024, 11:56:41 AM
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Wisconsin can't get a pass rush going at all, and Miller Moss will have time to throw. As in, ALL DAY.
Meanwhile, USC's defense has improved greatly, and Wisconsin doesn't have an offense.
USC is a 5.5 favorite, and if I were a gambler, I'd jump all over that. I'd probably jump on USC -20.
Seriously. This is gonna be painful, folks.
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MGM just corrected their spread line.
It's USC -15.5 which is still low, IMO.
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MGM just corrected their spread line.
It's USC -15.5 which is still low, IMO.
Do you think Luke Fickell will bring the Badgers back to prominence?
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I still have faith in him. He needs to make some changes. I don't think he knew just how far the program had regressed since 2019.
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I still have faith in him. He needs to make some changes. I don't think he knew just how far the program had regressed since 2019.
I kinda disagree with this. I think the blame on the previous admin has at times been overhyped.
That said, I think he has the ability to turn it around. He just hasn't done it. And a theoretically higher upside, modest risk OC hire has just gone worse than could've reasonably been predicted.
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Granted I was dead wrong in predicting USC to beat Michigan in a 24-10 type of win last Saturday, but Michigan showed a level of motivation and execution they hadn't played with to start the season. On the other hand, USC recovered from a poor first half showing to fight back and nearly win. Despite the road loss to Michigan there's a lot of positives USC can take into this coming Saturday Vs a Wisconsin team who, just like Michigan until last weekend, has underwhelmed to start the year:
Obviously USC can be expected to play better at home Vs Wisconsin, but to further that, in competitive showings Vs LSU and Michigan, the Trojans have executed with a lot of balance on both sides of the ball, fielding an improved defense and an offense that is competent in both running and passing. And last weekend, to be able to claw back Vs Michigan will, IMO, give the Trojans a lot of confidence starting this Saturday.
As for Wisconsin, there's not much to be inspired about. The Badgers haven't impressed, nor have they executed consistently, and in the bigger picture, the background drama of Fickell's tenure starting with staffing missteps can't be helping: 1) Fickell hiring a middling staff on offense (Longo/Bicknell), 2) Fickell wanting to fire Longo after a bad first season, 3) the AD blocking Longo's firing b/c of the buyout, and 4) Fickell in turn "reassigning" Bicknell away from the OL. Imagine if you're Longo coaching while knowing the HC wanted you gone. Image the players on that side of the ball knowing the head coach would rather have your coaches gone. It can't help.
27-13 USC wins
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I kinda disagree with this. I think the blame on the previous admin has at times been overhyped.
That said, I think he has the ability to turn it around. He just hasn't done it. And a theoretically higher upside, modest risk OC hire has just gone worse than could've reasonably been predicted.
He went a whole year without a recruiting department. He made lazy coaching hires.
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USC is a much improved team.
I was actually pretty impressed with Miller Moss, he made some big time throws to keep them in the game and bring them back despite being pressured or hit on nearly every drop back. The one huge mistake he had was throwing it anywhere near Will Johnson. It wasn't even like it was a terrible throw, Will Johnson just read the play and jumped that route- it's just what he does. Probably a good idea to not even throw it anywhere near him.
USC's defense gave up only 20 points and made a bunch of shoe string tackles that point blank it wouldn't have last year. Michigan ran for 290 yards but they also ran the ball 45 times and with the RB's they have you give them that many tries- they'll pop a few for big gains against most defenses. USC defense last year would've given up 400 yards rushing and Michigan would've dropped 35+ points imo.
Wisconsin on the other hand is reeling a little bit after losing their starting QB for the season and getting walloped at home by Bama. Wisconsin seems to have a bit of an identity crisis. They were a program built on massive offensive lines with stud backs and running the ball down the opposing teams throat and playing stingy defense. Fickell seems to not really know what he wants to be and hiring Phil Longo to run the Air Raid might've been a mistake. Fickell probably needs to get rid of Longo at the end of the year and go back to smash mouth offensive linemen, two TE sets, FBs and running backs that get down hill.
Give me USC by 14.
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There's a chance Wisconsin catches USC wallowing in self pity. USC's OL isn't that good. Michigan's DL made life difficult for Moss all day. And the Coliseum ain't that intimidating. I would expect a MAJOR turnout by local Wisconsin fans and alumni living in Southern Cal. Wisconsin has a chance if they play some classic Wisconsin ball control football.
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https://twitter.com/akschaaf/status/1838224101053280435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1838224101053280435%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url= (https://twitter.com/akschaaf/status/1838224101053280435?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1838224101053280435|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=)
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There's a chance Wisconsin catches USC wallowing in self pity. USC's OL isn't that good. Michigan's DL made life difficult for Moss all day. And the Coliseum ain't that intimidating. I would expect a MAJOR turnout by local Wisconsin fans and alumni living in Southern Cal. Wisconsin has a chance if they play some classic Wisconsin ball control football.
I feel like most teams OL’s will struggle with Michigan’s front when Michigan’s front brings their A game. Takes an elite OL like Texas to stifle that front- and well most college teams don’t have an OL with that much experience and talent.
USC’s OL might not be elite, but is Wisconsin’s pass rush? If Wisconsin can’t get heat on Miller Moss and he’s got ample time to make his reads he’ll pick them apart. He’s a really good college QB.
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I feel like most teams OL’s will struggle with Michigan’s front when Michigan’s front brings their A game. Takes an elite OL like Texas to stifle that front- and well most college teams don’t have an OL with that much experience and talent.
USC’s OL might not be elite, but is Wisconsin’s pass rush? If Wisconsin can’t get heat on Miller Moss and he’s got ample time to make his reads he’ll pick them apart. He’s a really good college QB.
Wisconsin? Pass rush?
Those two things don't go together.
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Wisconsin's defense might keep them in it, but their inability to score against practice dummies is a concern.
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No changes except TE. Disappointing to say the least.
(https://i.imgur.com/Vx01vex.jpeg)
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No changes except TE. Disappointing to say the least.
(https://i.imgur.com/Vx01vex.jpeg)
Which were you looking for?
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Which were you looking for?
3-man DL, with Lane in the depth.
Alliegro and Curtis starting ILB.
Yacamelli RB1.
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Damning.
https://twitter.com/jessetemple/status/1838555287030034768?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1838555287030034768%7Ctwgr%5E7cf6708b730f647415a58bbe5e6c9af90a544089%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2F247sports.com%2Fcollege%2Fwisconsin%2Fboard%2F23%2Fcontents%2Ftweets-144988831%2F%3Fpage%3D1 (https://twitter.com/jessetemple/status/1838555287030034768?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1838555287030034768|twgr^7cf6708b730f647415a58bbe5e6c9af90a544089|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2F247sports.com%2Fcollege%2Fwisconsin%2Fboard%2F23%2Fcontents%2Ftweets-144988831%2F%3Fpage%3D1)
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Wisconsin’s effectiveness generally was based on not surrendering the big play while creating enough of its own havoc plays to make a difference. In Leonhard’s last four seasons at Wisconsin, from 2019 to 2022, the Badgers’ defense ranked third nationally in yards allowed per play (4.6) and in yards allowed per rush (2.8), according to TruMedia. Wisconsin also ranked sixth in sack rate, 19th in explosive play rate and sixth in havoc rate, which consists of plays with a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, pass breakup or sack.
Although Tressel has a smaller sample at Wisconsin, it is enough of a chunk to demonstrate a regression in those key areas. Under Tressel, Wisconsin ranks 43rd nationally in yards allowed per play (5.2), 49th in yards allowed per rush (4.0) and 32nd in total defense (336.1 yards). Wisconsin hasn’t been good enough at preventing big plays or generating them. The Badgers rank 52nd in sack rate, 60th in explosive play rate and 83rd in havoc rate. And this season, Wisconsin ranks 113th in explosive play rate and 124th in havoc rate.
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My dudes, I haven't been here in ages. Honestly, American football--including CFB--has been fading for me as a pastime.
Last year I took the boy to see UW-Madison for the first time, and we did a football game. Ouch. Most embarassed I've ever been for the Badgers, seeing them get smacked around at home by Northwestern. I can live with a loss, and I can live with Alabama dominating the Badgers, but Northwestern, at home? Get me another beer. And the boy, because in Wisconsin you can be served as long as a parent is with you. How about that. The boy loved Madison.
Regardless, I'll always love the Badgers. So I'm reading something in the Athletic, or the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal yesterday--I don't even remember what--and I think to myself, "I wonder what the fellas are thinking back on the site." So--for the first time in forever that I have had anything substantive to say (I think I partictipated in one ranking last year, in early September) I strolled on over and I saw the heart post. That s#1+ sucks. Talked to Badge last night. Nothing more to say on that, except that it's always worth talking to your friends--and it's better to have friends who don't all see the world exactly the same way you do. Some meme-ish thing that CD put on Facebook the other day (another site I don't spend much time on): travel is the enemy of prejudice. We need more enemies of prejudice. Kinda related. Anyway, I digress.
Ok--so some football talk. First, this game is against USC, not Alabama. USC is good--better than they've been, probably, but not 2004 USC good. It is always hard going all the way from the midwest to the west coast to play a game (and vice versa), and I don't think the Badgers will come out with a win. BUT...there's also a little extra doom and gloom after the butt kicking in Madison ten or eleven days ago.
Look, to stay in a game against a more talented team, you have to control the clock, limit the mistakes, and take advantage of some turnovers. Do that and you can keep things close. Do it enough, and you might just get the break you need to sneak in an upset. But if your qb goes down with a season ending injury on the first drive, your offensive line commits penalties that end scoring drives, and your running backs waste good, 20+ yard runs by ending them with fumbles, that more talented team is going to start rolling. And they did. And that better team is one of the king of kings. So, yeah, the Badgers got stomped, but let's not all jump to conclusions about the end of Badger football. Was it worse than how Colorado whupped up on the Badgers in '95? Or Syracuse in '97? Nope. That was under King Barry. Post first Rose Bowl. And how are those other two programs doing?
And yes, I've been disappointed with the results under Fickell so far. And no, the Badgers won't control the clock the way they used to with this offense. But I'm still proud of the way McIntosh put a stake in the ground when he fired Chryst and hired Fickell instead of Leonhard: "We are not content to be Iowa." Hell yeah. (I know he didn't actually say that, and I miss Leonhard--I wouldn't have been upset by that hire.) And if we go through a rough patch as a result, that's fine. That happens when you take chances. You win some, you lose some. But that was a bold move, and I was--and am--there for it.
And McIntosh took that chance right in the middle of the biggest upheaval in CFB since the creation of the NCAA. Seriously: NIL, unrestricted transfers, and conference realignment that has completely ditched the regional model the sport has always relied on. Whoa. Not surprising that things are hard to predict right now, and that it's hard to build a new identity for a program when the whole sport is undergoing an identity change. This is like the non-binary of sport. Who the F knows what's going on (or why, or whatever--and I'm just trying to be funny, not political--that's for a different converstaion, over a beer, not here :)).
So, where are the Badgers as they head to USC? First, they won the games they were supposed to win. They didn't beat the spread in either one, and I couldn't care less. Statistically they massively outplayed both of those teams, they just had some misses here and there. Not great, but I can live with that. Winning the games you are supposed to win is underrated, right SFIrish??? Oh--I think she's abandoned football maybe forever after that one...
Their "Air Raid" looks more like an Air Meander, but, honestly, they showed some pretty good flashes even against Alabama. Pauling is tough in the slot, and Locke made a few great throws in there against a freaking great team. The offense will look better against USC than it did against Alabama. And USC doesn't have the offensive weapons that Bama does. I'm always worried about the big play--I have been as long as I've been a Badger, that's just a 5-star vs. 3-star thing--but they ain't gonna torch us the same way as the Tide.
Honestly, I don't know a thing about USC except that they pushed a one-dimensional (apparently) Michigan pretty hard in Ann Arbor, and they beat an LSU team that looks a little lesser than maybe people expected in a neutral site game on the first weekend of the year. Seriously, there's a lot of football yet to be played that will tell us how good all these teams really are. Be honest, has Michigan looked that good so far this season?
Which brings me back to where I started thinking about this thread: I'm not a betting man, but -15.5 is--probably--taking advantage of people who are overreacting to early returns. I don't expect Wisconsin to win, but I think this game will be within two scores. And if it isn't, well, maybe I'll be back next week, or maybe I'll be back next year. Either way, call your friends. They are worth it.
And @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) --see--I'll stop in a bit more. Now go get that LAD straightened out.
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(https://i.imgur.com/bEYSqKw.png)
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Wisconsin traveled 10 true freshmen to LA.
Now... USE THEM!
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Ok I've seen enough. Time to let the freshman quarter back play. This is ridiculous.
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Ok I've seen enough. Time to let the freshman quarter back play. This is ridiculous.
Yep. Locke is not good and Longo should be Gonego - tomorrow.