CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2024, 01:24:41 PM
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We have some notion as to who the best teams should be, but some other teams will just be INTERESTING, which to me, means they could end up 11-1 or 6-6, or worse. Mine include:
Michigan - They could be an 8-5 team, or not.
Tennessee - The hype machine is rolling, and maybe it's not hype.
Florida - They could be a pretty good team and finish 5-7. I'm reading their coach will survive no matter what.
FSU - Some team in the top ten is going to fade, maybe them.
Georgia Tech - Their fans are optimistic this season for some reason.
Clemson - Are they on the cusp of becoming ordinary, or are they still among the near elites out there?
Rutger(s) - That schedule ...
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I'm obviously not a neutral observer but I'm very interested to see how Texas and OU fare in the SEC.
I also find Alabama interesting-- brand new coach following the GOAT. He's a good coach for sure, will that be enough?
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Penn State.
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Wisconsin.
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Wisconsin.
Really excited about that Wisconsin-Alabama matchup!
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Gonna tell us a lot about both teams.
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I'm obviously not a neutral observer but I'm very interested to see how Texas and OU fare in the SEC.
As you know, the "SEC hype machine" is a bit, um, over hyped. But it's not as if Texas is going to waltz into a place like T-loosa and beat Alabama on the road.
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I'm totally gonna go ahead and be a homer and say Michigan. I could see them being 7-5. But I could also see them being 11-1.
They are replacing 5 starters on the OL but that OL will be just fine imo. They are going to be playing lot of older guys there that have been in the building for like 2-4 years now and in that system with Sherrone Moore developing and waiting for their turn. They aren't playing all transfers (just one in LG Josh Priebe- and he's a pretty good one too btw) or true frosh or rs frosh. Youngest guy on that OL will be a RS Soph. Two of the starters were former top 100 overall recruits in the 247Rankings and another was an OMERG FIVE STARZ. At this point with Sherrone Moore in charge of the OL- Michigan is a place you just expect to have good offensive lines.
They are going to run the shit out of the football- and they have what I believe is the most talented RB in the country in Donovan Edwards- and a very underrated big body power back in Kalel Mullings- he's very reminiscent of Hassan Haskins. They'll have a nice RB room. They have maybe the best TE in CFB in Colston Loveland.
The QB situation scares me to death- and that's not a good place to be in when you don't know what you have at QB and Texas is on the schedule week 2. Alex Orji has never thrown a pass in a real game- we don't know if he can throw the ball consistently and take care of the football. And the other options are very uninspiring in a former walk-on Davis Warren, 7th year clipboard holder Jack Tuttle, and a true freshman Jadyn Davis. If Orji can't throw the ball just enough and be consistent enough to keep defenses honest- or if he is just like a turnover machine- Michigan is a 7-5 or 8-4 team.
They'll have a good OL, they'll have excellent backs, they'll have good special teams, and that defense will be flat out filthy. Defense could very well once again be the best defense in the country. But none of that means shit if you're QB is hot garbage and turns the ball over like it's in-style or if he can't complete a forward pass.
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Penn State.
they aren't that interesting to me. because: James Franklin is their coach.
I am fully expecting Franklin to wet the bed and Penn State not to make the playoff, even though they have a very easy schedule and are returning their very talented former OMERG FIVE STARZ starting QB.
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I'm obviously not a neutral observer but I'm very interested to see how Texas and OU fare in the SEC.
I also find Alabama interesting-- brand new coach following the GOAT. He's a good coach for sure, will that be enough?
Alabama is definitely super interesting post-Saban. And they lost a ton in the portal and to the NFL draft. Their #1, #2, and #3 sack & TFL leaders are gone in starting edge rushers Dallas Turner (NFL draft) and Chris Braswell (NFL draft) and starting defensive tackle Justin Eboigbe (NFL draft). Their entire starting secondary is gone with CB Terrion Arnold (NFL draft), CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (NFL draft), S Caleb Downs (porthole, was their leading tackler and a fucking STUD), and S Jaylen Key (NFL draft) all moving on.
Saban you just always knew he's going to have an elite defense no matter. That's his MO. Dude is a 3-4 guru and defensive genius from the Bill Belichik tree. Kalen DeBoer? Um, not so much.
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Is there some other minor team that is "interesting", a la Rutger(s)?
NC State? UCF? USC? Oregon State????
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Penn State is interesting to me because they had a great defense last year and a couple of amazing running backs, but their quarterback was inexperienced.
This year they have a pretty light schedule and could easily go undefeated or end up with one or two losses, if the quarterback is just serviceable. Could be a playoff team.
Anyone who thinks Michigan is going to have a big drop off is not been paying attention or didn’t notice how nasty that defense was last year. Combined with their ability to develop offensive linemen, a great running back, and a great tight end I think the quarterback just needs to be not mistake prone. Michigan will be in every game and could be as good as undefeated or as bad as 8-4.
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Penn State is interesting to me because they had a great defense last year and a couple of amazing running backs, but their quarterback was inexperienced.
This year they have a pretty light schedule and could easily go undefeated or end up with one or two losses, if the quarterback is just serviceable. Could be a playoff team.
Anyone who thinks Michigan is going to have a big drop off is not been paying attention or didn’t notice how nasty that defense was last year. Combined with their ability to develop offensive linemen, a great running back, and a great tight end I think the quarterback just needs to be not mistake prone. Michigan will be in every game and could be as good as undefeated or as bad as 8-4.
I hear ya on Penn State. I guess I just have zero faith in James Franklin. Can you blame me at this point? He's been there 10 years and always just seems to shit the bed.
As for Michigan and the QB, safe bet Orji will get the start and I honestly have no clue how it'll go. Michigan didn't really use JJ in the run game the last 2 years even though JJ is pretty athletic and he can really run. However JJ was not the biggest guy in terms of bulk/muscle mass, and my guess here is the lack of running the QB had a lot to do with his lack of size and them not wanting to take the risk of getting him hurt. Orji on the other hand is an athletic freak and he's built like a brick shithouse at 6'3, 245+ ish. I really can't wait to see how they incorporate him into the rushing attack, think he could be lethal there. But at the end of the day he's still got to be able to have consistency in the passing game and take care of the football- and I have zero clue if he's capable of that. Guess we'll find out soon.
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Franklin has had UW's number lately, and it sucks. I'm hoping that changes this year in Madison. We'll see what Fickell 2.0 can bring. I don't think he realized how much of a rebuild UW was, and how PC let it all slip away.
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Is there some other minor team that is "interesting", a la Rutger(s)?
Nebraska and Colorado
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Nebraska and Colorado
Nebraska is super interesting for sure, because they just might be way better than any of us think.
Colorado is interesting because of Prime. most CFB fans of other teams will be watching hoping he crashes and burn. and he probably will this year. they were so god awful on both lines of scrimmage last year- hard to see them drastically improving both lines in one off-season.
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Not one particular team, but I'm curious to see who fills in at the top of the New B12 this year. The addition of the PAC schools, to an already diverse cast of characters from BYU to Cincy to Central Florida, and then the "old-school" programs like KSU, ISU, and OSU, should be really interesting.
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I hopin Prime is the first coach fired
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Miami
They could be really good or just what they've been for a long time.
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Miami
They could be really good or just what they've been for a long time.
agreed. Miami could be really good. ACC is the weakest of the 4 conferences this year, Cam Ward is really good, and it's Miami....they always have great athletes on the roster.
I have zero faith in Mario Cristobal though.
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they could be worse
thanks to Cristobal
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The Colorado/Prime story, to me, is mostly over. His "antics" or whatever don't play very well today, to the extent he causes any. He's just a coach, of a team that could well be 3-8ish (again). I guess I'm mildly interested and could get more so if the Biffs upset a couple early.
The Blue Blood teams that have been down are interesting, USCw is even ranked now I think. Nobody has mentioned Notre Dame, I guess we all expect them to be 10-2 or 9-3 and kind of just another petty good team. OU? Nobody much talks about them.
The G6 team that makes the Twelve is interesting.
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Michigan - They could be an 8-5 team, or not.
Maybe. I hope Texas and every Big Ten team is thinking this.
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Maybe. I hope Texas and every Big Ten team is thinking this.
I doubt Texas players and coaches think anything like this. They would assess based on film and returning players. How Michigan might finish is irrelevant of course. But for me, I could see a drop to 8-5 worst case, or 12-1, a pretty wide spread.
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Who are the least interesting teams in 2024?
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Who are the least interesting teams in 2024?
I'd say Ohio State and UGA. They are pretty much locks to be good and playoff teams, even at 10-2. Then you have teams like Vandy pretty much locks to be bad.
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Ohio st and UGA are plenty interesting when playin another top 10 or top 5 team
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The games are interesting, for sure, the teams in my view are not. The range of expected outcomes is pretty narrow. An "interesting team", to me, is one where their final record COULD be 8-5 or 12-1, a la Michigan. If UGA goes 10-2, it's not really all that interesting, or unexpected, to your average fan. If they went 8-5, fans would view them as a pretty bad bust, but it seems unlikely.
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Kind of looking forward to see how Rhule does at Nebraska and Fickell at Wisconsin.
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Nebraska is super interesting for sure, because they just might be way better than any of us think.
Well since they are cornsidered Blue Bloods more like blue balls since they've joined the BIG and Dr Tom's departure. Be interesting to see them rachet it up with the arrivals of the evasive species from the west.Maybe their 5* diva that finally made a choice will call Lincoln home will be the difference
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It’s not gonna be good, but I’m kind of interested to see what kind of offense San Jose state is running. They hired an option Coach, but he said he’s not running that offense. That feels like cowardice, but we’ll see.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17379567/why-college-football-blue-bloods-matter
What blue bloods mean for college football
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I hopin Prime is the first coach fired
Hater
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well, Harbaugh is gone
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Maybe. I hope Texas and every Big Ten team is thinking this.
most are thinking "don't get mad get even
https://youtu.be/EtSPFXj_eZM?t=13
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Kinda hard to "overlook" the defending national champs, especially when you're traveling 1,400 miles to their stadium.
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interesting to see how they do w/o cheating and their cheating coach
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Kinda hard to "overlook" the defending national champs, especially when you're traveling 1,400 miles to their stadium.
HOOK'EM
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I look forward to chanting SEC SEC SEC!!! at the TV while barking if Texas wins, and saying "They aren't a real SEC team" if they lose.
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The spoon fed Michigan Fecks have their 1st 5 games at the Out House,daFuq???
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I look forward to sending 4 B1G teams to the playoff and chanting NFL, NFL, NFL
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trying to put the HEX on us FF?
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agreed. Miami could be really good. ACC is the weakest of the 4 conferences this year, Cam Ward is really good, and it's Miami....they always have great athletes on the roster.
I have zero faith in Mario Cristobal though.
This.
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Somewhat obscurely related, Sanford Stadium has increased seating capacity....
92,276 will now be 93,033.
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I'm totally gonna go ahead and be a homer and say Michigan. I could see them being 7-5. But I could also see them being 11-1.
Michigan has a tough schedule at the top but after that it drops off. This is my projected order of toughest games taking into account not only projected strength of opponent but also chronology and location:
- vs #4 Texas. I have this one at #1 because it is so early. Even if Michigan ends up being great, this could be a struggle with so many replacements.
- at #2 Ohio State. On the road and against #2.
- vs #3 Oregon.
- at Washington. Michigan (like pretty much all Big11Ten teams has tended to struggle on the West Coast).
- vs #23 USC.
- vs Fresno State. There are probably better teams below this, but this one is in week #1.
- at Illinois.
- vs Michigan State.
- at Indiana.
- vs Minnesota.
- vs Northwestern
- vs Arkansas State.
11-1 on this schedule would be incredible. They'd either have to:
- Go 2-1 against Texas, Oregon, and at Ohio State AND have zero upsets, or
- Sweep Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State and have an off-day loss to someone else.
Either way, that would be a great accomplishment.
I feel like 7-5 would be a near-disaster with this schedule. Losses to the three top-4 teams would obviously be understandable but if they also lost to Washington and USC their best win would be . . . Fresno? Illinois?
Note that this issue isn't specific to just Michigan, it is more of a conference-wide thing. Ohio State similarly has three really tough games (@#3 Oregon, @#8PSU, vs#9M) but if they lost those three and went 9-3 their best wins would be . . . home games against #25 Iowa and UNL?
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Michigan has a tough schedule at the top but after that it drops off. This is my projected order of toughest games taking into account not only projected strength of opponent but also chronology and location:
- vs #4 Texas. I have this one at #1 because it is so early. Even if Michigan ends up being great, this could be a struggle with so many replacements.
- at #2 Ohio State. On the road and against #2.
- vs #3 Oregon.
- at Washington. Michigan (like pretty much all Big11Ten teams has tended to struggle on the West Coast).
- vs #23 USC.
- vs Fresno State. There are probably better teams below this, but this one is in week #1.
- at Illinois.
- vs Michigan State.
- at Indiana.
- vs Minnesota.
- vs Northwestern
- vs Arkansas State.
11-1 on this schedule would be incredible. They'd either have to:
- Go 2-1 against Texas, Oregon, and at Ohio State AND have zero upsets, or
- Sweep Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State and have an off-day loss to someone else.
Either way, that would be a great accomplishment.
I feel like 7-5 would be a near-disaster with this schedule. Losses to the three top-4 teams would obviously be understandable but if they also lost to Washington and USC their best win would be . . . Fresno? Illinois?
Note that this issue isn't specific to just Michigan, it is more of a conference-wide thing. Ohio State similarly has three really tough games (@#3 Oregon, @#8PSU, vs#9M) but if they lost those three and went 9-3 their best wins would be . . . home games against #25 Iowa and UNL?
Not saying I think they're going 11-1. I said I think that would be their ceiling. There's zero shot they are going 3-0 in their big games and I'd almost guarantee Ohio State to be a loss. There is just too much at stake for Ryan Day in that game, he's going to be as motivated as any coach ever to get a W in that one. I think Chip Kelly was a home run OC hire, that roster is loaded with talent and experience, and it's a home game. That's a loss. BUT....strange things have happened in that rivalry and the pressure will be on that team like nothing I can imagine, meanwhile Michigan is just playing with house money in that one.
As far as their ceiling goes, well that ceiling obviously only gets reached if they get fortunate on the injury front (but I think you could say that for any team) and IF they hit on the QB. And that last part is a pretty big if. IF Alex Orji really is that dude....they're going to be a gnarly team because he just adds so much to the run game with his legs and that defense is going to be nasty- and nasty defense + dominant running game = as Borat would say, great success.
As far as their schedule goes, it's very tough. But they do get Texas and Oregon at home.
Texas should be favored because it's so early in the year and Michigan has a lot to figure out with the OL and QB, meanwhile Texas are returning an excellent OL and experienced veteran QB, but they aren't unbeatable. Yes Michigan lost 13 guys to the NFL draft. Texas wasn't that far behind, they lost 11 to the draft. Texas is down 2 of their top 3 RB's to injury including their starter CJ Baxter, they are replacing basically all of their WR's/TE's and Ewers will have to rebuild that chemistry/timing with a whole new cast, and while their defense was middle of the road last year overall and amongst the worst in the nation against the pass- their run defense was one of the tops and it was headlined by an incredible DT duo of Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat who went off to the NFL in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft. Michigan will have a real shot in the game, it's going to be closer than people think. Michigan's defense will keep them in every game unless Orji goes ballistic with the turnovers a la Jeff Sims at Nebraska last year.
And as far as Oregon goes, Michigan gets them at home, it's towards the end of the year so they'll have had time to work out some kinks on offense, and Oregon will have had to travel east of the Mississippi back and forth 3 times in very close succession-they just might be a little bit travel fatigued in that spot- and quite frankly I just don't think they are as good as they are being hyped out to be. I think they'll be very good and a top contender in the league, but I don't really buy them being better than Ohio State or clear cut head and shoulders above Michigan and Penn State. I think it's Ohio State at tier 1....and then Oregon, Michigan, and Penn State in a next tier 2.
B1G teams generally don't fare well out west, that is true. And the @ Washington would concern me if Washington didn't lose everybody, but they just lost 21 of 22 players in their two deep, their head coach and entire staff. And they aren't doing a Michigan thing where they are hiring from within and keeping a lot of the coaches/schemes in-tact. It's a wholesale staff change and philosophy/scheme change AND they return 1 guy from their two deep. Washington is probably going to suck with a capital S.
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Texas should be favored because it's so early in the year and Michigan has a lot to figure out with the OL and QB, meanwhile Texas are returning an excellent OL and experienced veteran QB, but they aren't unbeatable. Yes Michigan lost 13 guys to the NFL draft. Texas wasn't that far behind, they lost 11 to the draft. Texas is down 2 of their top 3 RB's to injury including their starter CJ Baxter, they are replacing basically all of their WR's/TE's and Ewers will have to rebuild that chemistry/timing with a whole new cast, and while their defense was middle of the road last year overall and amongst the worst in the nation against the pass- their run defense was one of the tops and it was headlined by an incredible DT duo of Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat who went off to the NFL in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft. Michigan will have a real shot in the game, it's going to be closer than people think. Michigan's defense will keep them in every game unless Orji goes ballistic with the turnovers a la Jeff Sims at Nebraska last year.
I don't know of anyone who believes the game will be anything other than close.
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I don't know of anyone who believes the game will be anything other than close.
Ohio State fans. But they think Michigan is going to get their asses kicked in every game this year so maybe I should stop counting them :)
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I don't know of anyone who believes the game will be anything other than close.
I think Texas by virtue of being an SEC will defeat Michigan by 5 TDs, at least....
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I think Texas by virtue of being an SEC will defeat Michigan by 5 TDs, at least....
this made me lol. and curious about the actual record. so I looked it up.
Michigan vs the SEC:
Ole Miss: 1-0
Kentucky: 1-0
Arkansas: 1-0
Auburn: 1-1
Alabama: 3-3
Florida: 4-1
Georgia: 1-2
Missouri: 2-2
LSU: Never played.
Miss State: 0-1
Tennessee: 0-1
Texas: 0-1 (one of the best Rose Bowl games I've ever seen, Vince Young went nuts on Michigan in a 38-37 Longhorns victory)
Texas A&M: 2-1
Oklahoma: 0-1
Vanderbilt: 10-0-1
South Carolina: 1-3
how the hell does South Carolina of all teams own them? Ohio State is 0-2 vs South Carolina. Michigan and Ohio State combined are 1-5 vs South Carolina. Who the fuck would've guessed that?
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this made me lol. and curious about the actual record. so I looked it up.
Michigan vs the SEC:
South Carolina: 1-3
how the hell does South Carolina of all teams own them? Ohio State is 0-2 vs South Carolina. Michigan and Ohio State combined are 1-5 vs South Carolina. Who the fuck would've guessed that?
You wanna see something crazy, look up Texas' record against Vanderbilt.
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You wanna see something crazy, look up Texas' record against Vanderbilt.
What’s not interesting is how fast that’s gonna change.
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South Carolina did have some pretty solid teams under Spurrier and Holtz and I think during that period they hooked up with Michigan in bowl games a few times.
Did they ever play outside a bowl game? Twice.
1/1/2018
Tampa, FL
26
19
Outback Bowl
1/1/2013
Tampa, FL
33
28
Outback Bowl
9/27/1980
Ann Arbor, MI
17
14
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Texas A&M could be interesting. New coach, some decent talent on the team. I’m curious to see if our starting QB can finish the season. FYI we lost our starter the last 3 years very early in the season. We kick it off with Notre Dame 8/31, and then the schedule gets much better until very late in the season. If we manage to squeak by ND, there is a very good chance we could go 8-0 headed into Nov. No Bama on the schedule, no Ole Miss. We do play Mizzou, who appear to be a decent team.
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new AD
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All the new teams in the SEC/B1G will be interesting, and their games at least initially will be such. A team like say Missouri might end up being interesting, but only if they do better than expected (which is possible). The B12 "mess" is kind of interesting in a sense, but it'll probably be a mess on the last week of play, I guess they have a CG somehow. I don't know of an ACC team I'd call interesting at this point other than maybe Miami.
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Clemson?
FSU?
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Nebraska Football Ditching Alternate Uniforms
Nebraska football will not wear alternate uniforms in 2024, ending a run of wearing an alternate for one game each year going back more than a decade.
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Nebraska Football Ditching Alternate Uniforms
Nebraska football will not wear alternate uniforms in 2024, ending a run of wearing an alternate for one game each year going back more than a decade.
Good.
Make Nebraska Traditional Again
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Clemson?
FSU?
Meh. If Clemson upsets UGA, then I'd say yes. But I think Clemson and FSU have pretty predictable seasons ahead of them. And it probably won't matter much nationally.
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Good.
Make Nebraska Traditional Again
gotta luv Coach Rhule.........
"There's no alternate uniform this year," Rhule said. "There was nothing planned for this year. I think that was just sort of a philosophical decision."
Rhule said the process for alternates typically begins two years before they are put to use. (Means last year wasn't his idea)
"I love seeing traditional uniforms," Rhule said.
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I'm not a fan of gimmickry in uniforms. I'm "OK" if Oregon does it, it's their "tradition", I get that.
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a good reason Oregon should NOT be in the B1G
non-traditional tradition
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South Carolina: 1-3
how the hell does South Carolina of all teams own them? Ohio State is 0-2 vs South Carolina. Michigan and Ohio State combined are 1-5 vs South Carolina. Who the fuck would've guessed that?
A lot of times H2H can be misleading if either or both of the following apply:
- The teams do not play frequently, or
- Some of the games were many decades or even more than a century ago
Minnesota/Nebraska is another great example in addition to Vanderbilt's .750 record against Texas which @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) brought up. In the Vanderbilt/Texas case they DID play frequently but it was seven times in an eight year span that was 100 years ago along with three times in a four year span 120 years ago. They haven't played in almost a century.
In the Gophers/Cornhuskers example the Gophers own a substantial 37-25-2 advantage despite Nebraska being obviously the stronger program for the bulk of the history of CFB. The reason the Gophers hold this edge is that the two teams didn't play much between Devaney's hiring in 1962 and Nebraska joining the B1G in 2011. Breaking it up that way:
- 29-6-2 Minnesota advantage pre-Devaney
- 14-0 Nebraska advantage from the hiring of Devaney up until Nebraska joined the B1G
- 8-5 Minnesota advantage since Nebraska joined the B1G
- 37-25-2 Minnesota advantage total.
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gee, thanks
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(https://i.imgur.com/Pwp9T65.jpeg)
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Miami is going to have a new coach next year.
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Clemson?
I think Clemson may be the most interesting PROGRAM in the country. I capitalized that to denote it from a team which I see as a one-year thing. The program is a multi-year thing.
Clemson's pre-Dabo history isn't awful but it isn't very impressive either. They usually weren't terrible but more of a middling team that would usually do a little better than .500 and occasionally jump up a few games over that.
They won 10 games in Dabo's third full season there (2011), that was the first time they'd seen double-digit wins since 1990. In the 20 years from 1991-2010 Clemson:
- 3-8 once
- 5-6 twice
- 6-7 once
- 6-6 once
- 7-6 twice
- 6-5 once
- 7-5 thrice
- 8-5 once
- 9-5 once
- 8-4 twice
- 9-4 twice
- 9-3 twice
- 9-2-1 once
That is a whole lot of "decent", not much bad and no great. Then Dabo got rolling . . .
- They won 10 games in 2011 with an ACC title
- They went 11-2 in 2012 with a bowl win over LSU
- They went 11-2 in 2013 with a bowl win over tOSU
- They had a fourth consecutive season of double-digit wins in 2014
- They went 14-1 in 2015 with an ACC Championship, and a CFP Semi-Final win
- They went 14-1 in 2016 with ACC and National Championships
- They went 12-2 in 2017 with an ACC Championship and a CFP appearance
- They went 15-0 in 2018 with ACC and National Championships
- They went 14-1 in 2019 with an ACC Championship and a CFP Semi-Final win
- They went 10-2 in 2020 with an ACC Championship and a CFP appearance
- They went 10-3 in 2021
- They went 11-3 with an ACC Championship in 2022
- They went 9-4 in 2023
The thing that makes them interesting to me is that their 2021-2023 run isn't bad by pre-Dabo standards. Actually, outside of their phenomenal 2012-2020 run, their 2021-2023 run would be one of the best three-year runs in Clemson's entire program history.
Perspective matters. Prior to the 2012-2020 run, the current 2021-2023 run would have been celebrated. Now it feels like a let-down.
What is the new normal for the Clemson program?
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yup, Dabo certainly doesn't want another 4-loss season
what did we used to call 4-loss programs???
Suckbutts
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A lot of times H2H can be misleading if either or both of the following apply:
- The teams do not play frequently, or
- Some of the games were many decades or even more than a century ago
Minnesota/Nebraska is another great example in addition to Vanderbilt's .750 record against Texas which @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) brought up. In the Vanderbilt/Texas case they DID play frequently but it was seven times in an eight year span that was 100 years ago along with three times in a four year span 120 years ago. They haven't played in almost a century.
In the Gophers/Cornhuskers example the Gophers own a substantial 37-25-2 advantage despite Nebraska being obviously the stronger program for the bulk of the history of CFB. The reason the Gophers hold this edge is that the two teams didn't play much between Devaney's hiring in 1962 and Nebraska joining the B1G in 2011. Breaking it up that way:
- 29-6-2 Minnesota advantage pre-Devaney
- 14-0 Nebraska advantage from the hiring of Devaney up until Nebraska joined the B1G
- 8-5 Minnesota advantage since Nebraska joined the B1G
- 37-25-2 Minnesota advantage total.
If you would have told the Twin Cities media that this would be the case, they'd have told you to get your head examined. At the time of their entry into the league, all they could talk about was 84-13, 84-13, 84-13. Oh by the way, have we yet mentioned 84-13?
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If you would have told the Twin Cities media that this would be the case, they'd have told you to get your head examined. At the time of their entry into the league, all they could talk about was 84-13, 84-13, 84-13. Oh by the way, have we yet mentioned 84-13?
To be fair, that is bananas and always will be.
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one of the greatest offenses of all-time
Gophers decide to blitz and use pressure, cause nothing else has worked, so why not try it.
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Clemson/Dabo probably got hurt more by the portal/NIL than any top tier program out there imo.
Dabo was paying for players under the table. No one can ever convince me otherwise. Well, now it's legal and the NIL funds that have the most $$$ and are run the best have the leg up. Clemson is at a major disadvantage there. And then the portal has hurt them as well, and Dabo has taken a stance against the portal saying stuff like he's not going to use it to get players.
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My personal most interesting, according to what I’m watching for – some already mentioned:
Miami – Cam Ward gives the Canes a star QB. The schedule is workable. I have the Hurricanes as a dark horse for the playoffs, but the coaching (Cristobal) is underwhelming.
Nebraska – At some point don’t the Huskers have to look better than they’ve been for the past half-decade? Losing openers to teams like Northwestern and Minnesota the past two seasons really took the spirits out of their seasons early on. This season it’s Vs Colorado that’s the early season tone setter.
Oklahoma – Venables & staff have recruited very well, which should start paying off. Problem is the Sooners’ schedule gets a stiff upgrade. Their SEC slate starts with Vs Tennessee, @ Auburn, Vs Texas.
Alabama – Not sure what to expect other then, starting this season, I can’t imagine that Crimson Tide defense will be as consistently lights out as they were under Saban. A defense that has afforded Alabama a competitiveness in rare losses for over a decade, but starting this season expect a few clearer cut losses we’re not used to witnessing from Bama.
North Carolina – Five seasons into his second stint as the Tar Heels head coach, Mack Brown has benefitted from the luxury of TWO future NFL QBs helming the backfield – Sam Howell and Drake Maye. Despite this, UNC has gone 38-27, losing to rivals, getting upset, and getting shelled in Bowls. Going into this season the QB position is facing a noticeable downgrade, though most publications rank UNC top 30 or 40. Mack Brown is 72, and I could see this being his last season, especially if the Tar Heels underwhelm. Good news for UNC is that their schedule is easy, facing only one preseason Top 25 opponent – Florida State.
Michigan – With all the turnover, I don’t see Michigan going better than 8-4, and what can’t help is their conference opponents playing for revenge.
LSU – Brian Kelly hired in a what should be a solid DC to fix LSU’s uncharacteristically awful defenses of the past few seasons, but this occurs right as the Tigers shed a lot of production on offense. Even when all their ducks are in a row, Brian Kelly’s teams don’t seem to be able to fully escape the chaotic factor that costs them a game or two against more disciplined, focused teams.
CBS Sports (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/sec-expert-picks-2024-most-overrated-and-underrated-teams-projected-order-of-finish-bold-predictions/) picks LSU as the most overrated SEC team: "The Tigers lost their top passer, top two rushers, top two receivers and offensive coordinator from a team that finished outside of the top 10 last season. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker will help improve the defense, but flipping playcallers on both sides of the ball and relying on a host of unproven options to take on starring roles makes it difficult to see LSU seriously landing in the College Football Playoff discussion like a preseason No. 13 ranking might assume."
https://twitter.com/TomFornelli/status/1826293867148349733
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gee, thanks
LoL, it wasn't meant as a shot at Nebraska!
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- 14-0 Nebraska advantage from the hiring of Devaney up until Nebraska joined the B1G
Bob Devaney coached high school football in Michigan at Big Beaver, Keego Harbor, Saginaw, and Alpena, before joining the Michigan State Spartans staff as an assistant coach underBiggie Munn and continuing under Duffy Daugherty.
Those are two good coaches to cut your teeth and learn the ropes from
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Nebraska Football Ditching Alternate Uniforms
Nebraska football will not wear alternate uniforms in 2024, ending a run of wearing an alternate for one game each year going back more than a decade.
Adidas' alternates are generally awful anyway.
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agreed
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I have to add Sparty to this list/thread after watching BTN’s training camp show from East Lansing. Jonathon Smith has some players. QB Chiles looks like he’s going to be special sooner than later.
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I guess GaTech and FSU got interesting, for a day, at noon.
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I have to add Sparty to this list/thread after watching BTN’s training camp show from East Lansing. Jonathon Smith has some players. QB Chiles looks like he’s going to be special sooner than later.
they are going to suck with a capital S on defense and they might struggle to run the ball but Chiles is legit. Chiles was the best QB get in the portal other than Cam Ward imo. Dillon Gabriel is 40 years old and extremely BLEH and he wasn't going to hold off 5* QB Jackson Arnold at Oklahoma any longer which is why he left. Dante Moore is super talented but that frosh season was a mixed bag and at times very bad- but he was dealing with chaos and his HC didn't give a shit about shit and had one foot out the door. Best thing for Moore is probably slowing it down and taking a redshirt season in 2024. Riley Leonard is also like 50, can't stay healthy and can't throw the football that well. Will Howard is...OK. Not sure he's that much better than what they just lost, and don't think you can really count Julian Sayin as a transfer- he's more like a recruit flip, still a true frosh who hasn't played a down.
Chiles is legit man. so legit in fact that if Michigan had gotten Chiles in the portal I'd have basically penciled them in for a playoff spot.
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as stated Alabama is one of the most interesting teams. will be fascinating to see if they can keep this up without Nick...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVupNJRXoAA8Gex?format=jpg&name=small)
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UGA is undefeated since 2020 except for that one team.
I watched on game in 2017 where Bama was beat, clearly, and pulled it out at the last second, again. I think the Dawgs had a "complex" with Florida for a while that they could have with Bama now, though reality is that Florida and Bama were both good during those periods.
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Bama at Wisconsin is really interesting.
Will Bama decline without the GOAT? Has Wisconsin improved with Fickell 2.0?
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Bama still has elite talent of course. They might "decline" to being 10-2 more often than 11-1, maybe. Over time, the talent edge could weaken.
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Bama's rosters the past 7-8 years were unprecedented in the scholarship limits era (based on avg star rating).
Now with the TP and NIL, I doubt that'll happen again for any individual school.
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Bama's rosters the past 7-8 years were unprecedented in the scholarship limits era (based on avg star rating).
Now with the TP and NIL, I doubt that'll happen again for any individual school.
agreed. even Kirby at Georgia has basically said as much.
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Bama's rosters the past 7-8 years were unprecedented in the scholarship limits era (based on avg star rating).
Now with the TP and NIL, I doubt that'll happen again for any individual school.
My thoughts are the same. But Bama will have pull in the portal too. Not sure how much they have in the NIL bank though. Are there a lot of wealthy Bama donors?
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My thoughts are the same. But Bama will have pull in the portal too. Not sure how much they have in the NIL bank though. Are there a lot of wealthy Bama donors?
Maybe but overall they're not anywhere close to the top in NIL capability. It's definitely going to affect their roster in a negative way, but like OAM said, NO single school is going to be able to put together a string of recruiting like that again. It was a unique period in college football history and all of the stars aligned.
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Not to mention the greatest coach ever.
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Maybe but overall they're not anywhere close to the top in NIL capability.
a lot of this NIL stuff we still don't really know that much about because a lot of the information is private and not public information. And there's obviously a difference between NIL capability and what the NIL is actually doing right now.
For example Michigan's NIL isn't terrible, but it's not great. They are severely lacking and my guess is Bama probably out spending them. But if Michigan got it's act together they have the boosters and donors to out spend Bama and be near the very top. And the Michigan affiliated NIL's have been refusing to spend money on recruits and are focused on paying proven players on the roster- which I'm generally in favor of- but when you start losing 5* #1 players overall in your back yard to LSU and a top 50 overall EDGE commit from Illinois to Auburn- I'm starting to question that approach.
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a lot of this NIL stuff we still don't really know that much about because a lot of the information is private and not public information. And there's obviously a difference between NIL capability and what the NIL is actually doing right now.
For example Michigan's NIL isn't terrible, but it's not great. They are severely lacking and my guess is Bama probably out spending them. But if Michigan got it's act together they have the boosters and donors to out spend Bama and be near the very top. And the Michigan affiliated NIL's have been refusing to spend money on recruits and are focused on paying proven players on the roster- which I'm generally in favor of- but when you start losing 5* #1 players overall in your back yard to LSU and a top 50 overall EDGE commit from Illinois to Auburn- I'm starting to question that approach.
Michigan and Georgia are the two current "sleeping giants" with respect to NIL capability Once those two schools really get their act together, they'll be right up there with Ohio State and Texas. And really, nobody's in Oregon's league unless/until Knight kicks the bucket.
But we actually DO know quite a bit about each school, because the recruits talk to each school about what they're being offered elsewhere. Put all of that data together across several years of NIL at this point, and the picture becomes pretty clear as to who's a real player, who has potential, and who's not ever really going to be able to play the game. Alabama falls into the last of those three buckets. They were fine in the olden days of bags of cash handed out to "uncles" under the table, but now that NIL has legitimized it, they just don't have the resources to provide similar potential as the top dogs, and unless they manufacture a bunch of new billionaires all of a sudden, they never will.
It doesn't mean they're doomed to mediocrity, not every recruitment comes down to NIL. But the days of them stockpiling far more talent than everyone else, are over. Saban was well aware of it and it's one of the main reasons he quit when he did,
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It's funny, all those tech founding fathers dropping out of college (albeit largely Ivies), is a boatload of money not involving itself in college football.
You'd think Cal or Stanford would try to wink and nod their way into some of that money.
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Not sure why FSU went after DJ U. He's......limited.
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It's funny, all those tech founding fathers dropping out of college (albeit largely Ivies), is a boatload of money not involving itself in college football.
You'd think Cal or Stanford would try to wink and nod their way into some of that money.
Yeah just imagine if Michael Dell gave a crap about sports, UT's NIL would be... well, quite large.
Instead he spends hundreds of millions of dollars founding hospitals and med schools and such. Darn selfish bastage!
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Not sure why FSU went after DJ U. He's......limited.
Agreed. He has never blown me away.
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Michigan and Georgia are the two current "sleeping giants" with respect to NIL capability Once those two schools really get their act together, they'll be right up there with Ohio State and Texas. And really, nobody's in Oregon's league unless/until Knight kicks the bucket.
UGA seems to be competitive, at least on the recruiting front. They don't have any local "deep pockets" though like a Dell.
Arthur Blank is in ATL and donates to this and that, and owns the Falcons and the soccer team, so he likes sports. I don't know that he donates to any Tech NIL thing. His partner in starting HD also donates a lot, but more quietly I'm informed. Blank likes his name on stuff.
I guess he's a blank slate.
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UGA seems to be competitive, at least on the recruiting front. They don't have any local "deep pockets" though like a Dell.
Arthur Blank is in ATL and donates to this and that, and owns the Falcons and the soccer team, so he likes sports. I don't know that he donates to any Tech NIL thing. His partner in starting HD also donates a lot, but more quietly I'm informed. Blank likes his name on stuff.
I guess he's a blank slate.
Sure, like I said, not every recruitment comes down to NIL. And even if Georgia is not yet "fully weaponized" it doesn't mean that the Bulldogs don't have any NIL at all. Just not as much as they could, and eventually will, have.
I think I've also mentioned several times that Michael Dell has zero interest in sports. He donates his time and money to things like founding new hospitals and building and expanding new med schools.
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I just wonder if having a Sugar Daddy for NIL makes a huge difference. I think it would at an "Oklahoma State", but perhaps with established programs, it's a lot less important. You need decent NIL to compete of course. Maybe paying some 5 star a million bucks versus half a million doesn't quite pan out that often.
So, can a lesser program "buy" an NC? Oregon is one example saying "Yes, maybe".
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#5 Seed!
(https://i.imgur.com/KGbkNjZ.jpeg)
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#5 Seed!
(https://i.imgur.com/KGbkNjZ.jpeg)
that's Brandon Walker from Barstool Sports picks. Brandon Walker is literally retarded and basically dead wrong about everything, so basically none of this will happen.
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so, you think Bama might squeeze in there?
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Miami is NOT gonna get close.
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We have some notion as to who the best teams should be, but some other teams will just be INTERESTING, which to me, means they could end up 11-1 or 6-6, or worse. Mine include:
* * *
FSU - Some team in the top ten is going to fade, maybe them.
Georgia Tech - Their fans are optimistic this season for some reason.
Cincydawg, you know more than me.
I went to the Pitt @ FSU game last year. FSU wants to go up two scores and take the air out of the ball. FSU has a defense.
First drive on Saturday, FSU took the ball down field for the first score against Georgia Tech, and decided on Drive No. 1 to go up by almost two scores by scoring a two-point conversion. FSU didn't have enough defense to take the air out of the ball, and didn't have enough offense, to carry out the mission. Georgia Tech scored 7 on its first drive. The struggle was on.
The FSU punting team has some work to do because it could have pinned Pitt deep, but the ball bounced into the end zone. I was impressed by your analysis. I thought sure FSU would be a Top 10 team, but a usual middling opponent took the wind out of their sails.
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I think Miami and PSU are the most interesting in terms of, "how many chances do you require?"
If this isnt a playoff year for them,.please get out of my face forever until you make a change
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Miami is NOT gonna get close.
Gator bait this weekend?
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I don't know any more than anybody of course (except the "experts). Each year I think a handful of teams are "interesting" because they have such a range of possible outcomes, anywhere from 11-1 to 7-5, or more, for example. We have a pretty good list here, I think. I would add GaTech just because of their win, though I frankly expect them to lose to someone they shouldn't and finish maybe 7-6. They might be a 9-3 team though. It's hard to tell of course with only one opponent played.
They BARELY beat FSU of course, a team everyone now is very down on.