CFB51 College Football Fan Community

The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 11:25:29 AM

Title: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 11:25:29 AM
Getting a late start here this year, but I don't think I did it at all last year.  This is different than my during the season simulation, based upon a season in the past.  I was hoping to use NCAA 25 for that, hoping that you could edit rosters to move players to other teams, like you can in Madden, to do it with kids playing for the teams they originally played for.

PRESEASON POLL

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 11:34:55 AM
WEEK ZERO
Saturday, August 24
ESPN College Gameday, live from Dublin, Ireland
#10 Florida State d. Georgia Tech



Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2024, 12:06:59 PM
Thank you. I've always loved these.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Mdot21 on August 18, 2024, 12:10:54 PM
Getting a late start here this year, but I don't think I did it at all last year.  This is different than my during the season simulation, based upon a season in the past.  I was hoping to use NCAA 25 for that, hoping that you could edit rosters to move players to other teams, like you can in Madden, to do it with kids playing for the teams they originally played for.
you can't edit players or even create players at all in NCAA 25. haven't played video games in years and I bought an Xbox just to buy NCAA 25- and have to say it's pretty underwhelming. had sky high expectations and it just falls short on so many levels. was thinking it'd be 10/10, more like 6/10. it's a massive disappointment but it makes sense coming from EA Sports- as Madden has sucked for like ever.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 12:19:21 PM
Yeah, I don't get why.  If you want to take Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, and just put them on the Browns, you can.  But you can't move players at all on NCAA.

As far as the game itself, the football IQ needed to play the actual game is the turn off for me.  There has always been Freshman, Varsity, AA, Heisman as difficulties, and I've always been AA.

I played a game on AA and threw 6 picks, lost 42-7 to Minnesota.  Moved it to Varsity, and crushed Pitt 38-14.

As I've played more, I've gotten slightly better, but defensively it's next to impossible to get decent teams off the field without getting a turnover.  Hell, I played EMU and only forced 2 punts, and one was after they got a holding penalty and a sack, so it was 2nd and 29.  Just lost last night to Notre Dame 42-27, and they threw two pick sixes.  Those were my only stops.  The number of interceptions, both ways, is way too high, and a lot lead to pick sixes.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 18, 2024, 12:33:23 PM
Half of FSU's team is out for Week 2, due to health problems caused by kissing the Blarney Stone.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 12:35:34 PM
Half of FSU's team is out for Week 2, due to health problems caused by kissing the Blarney Stone.
That's what Bobby Bowden calls his nethers
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 12:54:43 PM
Welp, Week 1 was pretty brutal for the Big Ten.  Lost all 3 matchups against other P4 teams, and suffered 2 upsets to G5 teams
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 18, 2024, 01:41:30 PM
Welp, Week 1 was pretty brutal for the Big Ten.  Lost all 3 matchups against other P4 teams, and suffered 2 upsets to G5 teams
Ouch
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 02:33:38 PM
WEEK ONE
Thursday, August 29


Friday, August 30


Saturday, August 31
ESPN College Gameday, live from Atlanta, GA
#1 Georgia d. #14 Clemson



Sunday, September 1

Monday, September 2

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 02:41:40 PM
WEEK 1 POLL


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 02:44:14 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/QwzMSM9.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/SpV1fGk.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/nXPyoLp.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 04:58:11 PM
WEEK TWO
Friday, September 6

Saturday, September 7
ESPN College Gameday, live from Ann Arbor, MI
#4 Texas d. #7 MICHIGAN


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 05:04:52 PM
WEEK 2 POLL
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2024, 05:07:08 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/xW5mKBS.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/uah6B2v.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/nDuMNZ4.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 19, 2024, 02:38:54 PM
WEEK THREE
Thursday, September 12

Friday, September 13

Saturday, September 14
ESPN College Gameday, live from Madison, WI
#5 Alabama d. WISCONSIN


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 02:51:43 PM
Take THAT, Roadrunners!

Beep Beep
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 19, 2024, 02:56:57 PM
WEEK 3 POLL
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 19, 2024, 02:59:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/CQeOJNE.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/6kBh7rH.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/IXxB0K2.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2024, 11:42:37 AM
WEEK FOUR
Thursday, September 19

Friday, September 20

Saturday, September 20
ESPN College Gameday, live from Norman, OK
#13 Oklahoma d. #10 Tennessee


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2024, 11:47:19 AM
DOWN goes Louisiana-Monroe!  In your face, Warhawks!

We're #1, We're #1, We're #1!!!!

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: bayareabadger on August 21, 2024, 11:56:25 AM
DOWN goes Louisiana-Monroe!  In your face, Warhawks!

We're #1, We're #1, We're #1!!!!


Those are hawks of war. I see how little some Texans think of the avian troops. 
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2024, 12:10:04 PM
WEEK 4 POLL
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2024, 12:25:10 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/McEGwDs.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/c6a8Xcn.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/CoItpLC.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2024, 03:09:48 PM
WEEK FIVE
Thursday, September 26

Friday, September 27

Saturday, September 28
ESPN Gameday, live from Tuscaloosa, AL
#5 Alabama d. #2 Georgia


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2024, 03:17:04 PM
This thing does not like 2024 Wisconsin at all.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2024, 03:19:54 PM
WEEK 5 POLL
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2024, 03:20:21 PM
This thing does not like 2024 Wisconsin at all.
I mean losing at home to LSU and on the road at USC isn't the worst indictment
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2024, 03:23:28 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/vsGAqT3.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/iLheVeV.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/ZhBO6V5.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2024, 03:25:08 PM
It's Bama, not LSU. 

I think they will beat USC. Paper tiger.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2024, 04:13:16 PM
It's Bama, not LSU.

I think they will beat USC. Paper tiger.
You don't just walk into the hornets nest which is the tarped off Coliseum...
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2024, 04:19:51 PM
The smog in LA gives the home team a 6-10 point advantage, easy.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2024, 11:10:18 PM
The smog in LA gives the home team a 6-10 point advantage, easy.
You mean that midwest Big Ten air?
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2024, 09:50:34 AM
WEEK SIX
Thursday, October 3

Friday, October 4


Saturday, October 5
ESPN College Gameday, live from Stillwater, OK
#14 Oklahoma State d. #9 West Virginia


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2024, 09:59:31 AM
WEEK 6 POLL

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2024, 10:39:52 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/tORHWRs.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/pgaZgEf.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/Z6AD2S1.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2024, 10:54:09 AM
I find the polls to be amusing, and I agree with what is shown above.  UGA at #2 falls to #10 losing on the road at #5, then climbs to #8 after beating a mediocre team at home.  Same team, bouncing in the polls, as usual.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2024, 10:56:30 AM
We're gonna take back #1 from Bama after we beat the hell out of the hated Sooners this coming week!

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2024, 01:56:06 PM
I find the polls to be amusing, and I agree with what is shown above.  UGA at #2 falls to #10 losing on the road at #5, then climbs to #8 after beating a mediocre team at home.  Same team, bouncing in the polls, as usual.
Yeah, I'm trying to replicate somewhat how the voters tend to respond
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2024, 02:22:33 PM
You're doing a fine job at it, it just highlights I think how "things" really "work".  Like Constantinople.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2024, 03:09:29 PM
WEEK SEVEN
Tuesday, October 8

Wednesday, October 9

Thursday, October 10

Friday, October 11


Saturday, October 12
ESPN College Gameday, live from Eugene, OR
#4 OREGON d. #3 OHIO STATE


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2024, 03:20:25 PM
Does Gameday go to locations where Disney is not doing the game?
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2024, 03:30:36 PM
WEEK 7 POLL
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2024, 03:36:01 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/e5ozCsp.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/J0ouOEo.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/Mu7FZhj.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 26, 2024, 06:30:01 PM
WEEK EIGHT
Tuesday, October 15

Wednesday, October 16

Thursday, October 17

Friday, October 18


Saturday, October 19
ESPN College Gameday, live from Knoxville, TN
#14 Tennessee d. #1 Alabama


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 26, 2024, 06:36:50 PM
WEEK 8 POLL


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 26, 2024, 06:38:24 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/XOivqTa.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/cqcmKcQ.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/Ijhlk2T.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 27, 2024, 02:24:32 PM
WEEK NINE
Tuesday, October 22

Wednesday, October 23

Thursday, October 24

Friday, October 25


Saturday, October 26
ESPN College Gameday, live from Waco, TX
#14 Baylor d. #7 Oklahoma State


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 28, 2024, 09:35:09 AM
WEEK 9 POLL
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 28, 2024, 09:37:21 AM
Can't believe we beat Georgia and Michigan but lost to the freaking Sooners, AGAIN!

This simulation hits too close to home.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 28, 2024, 09:38:47 AM
WEEK 9 POLL
    23. NEBRASKA (6-2) 18

hangin in there, I'll take it
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2024, 09:39:11 AM
Yes, it's a decent simulaton, UGA starts at 1, loses on the road to #5, drops to 10, climbs back up a bit, loses on the road to #1 or 2, and drops to 15.  Now they'll climb back up a bit, maybe beat Ole Miss, and end up probably 10-2 and in the playoff.

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 28, 2024, 09:39:31 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Twwg4DO.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/ZdiW00v.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/uxgbZ8H.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 28, 2024, 12:44:21 PM
WEEK TEN
Tuesday, October 29

Wednesday, October 30

HALLOWEEN

Friday, November 1

Saturday, November 2
ESPN College Gameday, live from Ann Arbor, MI
#5 MICHIGAN d. #1 OREGON


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 28, 2024, 01:33:01 PM
WEEK 10 POLL


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 28, 2024, 01:34:28 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/MId1H2P.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/6KL0dTP.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/HSGLMRY.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Abba on August 28, 2024, 02:40:37 PM
So this is the year Penn State finally gets the Buckeyes?  Oh well, hopefully that'll be balanced out by a win over Michigan.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: jgvol on August 28, 2024, 03:45:59 PM
This simulation is smoking some good Kentucky meth.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 28, 2024, 03:50:04 PM
b-cause my Huskers are top 20?
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 28, 2024, 03:52:28 PM
WEEK TEN
  • #11 PENN STATE d. #7 OHIO STATE
Ohio State's schedule this year is the worst of both worlds. They'll get fairly dinged for playing a "weak" slate because the three OOC's are body-bags and yet they could be the best (or one of the best) teams in the nation and still easily lose at least twice. They have three top-ten opponents and two of them are on the road.

Per your simulation they have two losses:

Those are in no way "bad" losses and yet the Buckeyes would be practically eliminated from B1GCG contention:


[img width=274.381 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/6KL0dTP.png[/img]
At 3-2 and with losses to both 5-0 PSU AND 5-1 Oregon the Buckeyes would need all kinds of help.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 28, 2024, 04:01:30 PM
no worries

perhaps pull the #5 seed in the playoff
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 28, 2024, 04:36:23 PM
no worries

perhaps pull the #5 seed in the playoff
Oh, I get it.  In the 12-team CFP world, two losses isn't devastating.  That is nice if the above comes to pass but it also changes my life-long way of viewing the games in a way that I don't like.  

Per the way this is laid out, Ohio State after their November 2 loss to PSU is 3-2/6*-2, 6th in the B1G and #15 nationally with the following remaining:
By winning out the Buckeyes would finish 7-2/10-2.  They'd have almost no chance at the B1GCG but they would be a pretty obvious CFP team, not sure about the #5 seed.  


NOTE to @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) :
You had tOSU at 5-1 in the week-7 poll but 6-1 in the spreadsheet.  That was immediately after tOSU's loss to Oregon which was game #6 for the Buckeyes, they should be 5-1 in both.  
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 28, 2024, 04:44:57 PM
WEEK ELEVEN
Tuesday, November 5

Wednesday, November 6

Thursday, November 7

Friday, November 8

Saturday, November 9
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbia, MO
#7 Oklahoma d. #2 Missouri


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 28, 2024, 05:00:17 PM
WEEK 11 POLL



Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 28, 2024, 05:03:43 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/RZm0BUp.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/FQqAJBd.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/TnmfL1D.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 28, 2024, 05:17:15 PM
hah, been a few decades since the Skers were ranked above Bama!
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 28, 2024, 05:41:55 PM
B1G standings per @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's simulation after the November 9 games:


I believe that the three-loss teams (Wash, USC, RU, NU, UW) are mathematically eliminated because they can do no better than 6-3.  Thus, they can't catch Michigan and the best they could do is to tie PSU and Oregon.  Plus they'd also need UNL to lose at least twice and tOSU to lose at least once.  

For all intents and purposes tOSU is out as well as I'll get to.  

Remaining games:


I think Michigan would clinch a spot by winning either of their two remaining games because they'd win a tie with Oregon and I *THINK* they'd also win a tie with Nebraska based on record against the next best team.  

Penn State's tiebreaker situation isn't quite as good as Michigan's but they also don't have any scary opponents left.  In this simulation Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland are 1-5, 3-4, and 0-6 respectively so the Nittany Lions would effectively be a lock as well.  

Oregon has a more difficult remaining schedule with a trip to 3-3 Wisconsin and a home rivalry game against 4-3 Washington but even if they won both they'd need help.  Ohio State taking down Michigan would theoretically get the Ducks into a tie with Michigan but they lost to the Wolverines so that doesn't really help.  They'd need Michigan to lose out or PSU to suffer a bad upset.  

Nebraska's remaining schedule is rough and they'd need all kinds of help.  

I *THINK* Ohio State is mathematically in it but that is academic.  As a practical matter a Michigan team that got to 7-0 wouldn't lose to a 3-3 Northwestern team at home and a 6-0 PSU wouldn't lose out to three bottom-feeders so the Buckeyes need to win out and plan for a road CFP opener.  
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 29, 2024, 02:05:11 PM
WEEK TWELVE
Tuesday, November 12

Wednesday, November 13

Thursday, November 14

Friday, November 15


Saturday, November 16
ESPN College Gameday, live from Athens, GA
#10 Georgia d. #12 Tennessee


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 29, 2024, 02:15:01 PM
WEEK 12 POLL




Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 29, 2024, 02:50:55 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/LSpQ36b.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/ZOqbIwO.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/knrgh02.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2024, 04:59:21 PM
WEEK THIRTEEN
Tuesday, November 19

Wednesday, November 20

Thursday, November 21

Friday, November 22

Saturday, November 23
ESPN College Gameday, live from Austin, TX
#3 Texas d. #11 Kentucky


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2024, 05:05:41 PM
WEEK 13 POLL


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2024, 05:10:54 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ocfBIVs.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/nbttPQH.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/QFZAXWV.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2024, 08:50:08 PM
YES!!!
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2024, 09:42:54 PM
Houston beating Baylor would be an all timer in a prior era.  Instead it might hurt Baylors seed
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 30, 2024, 10:51:31 PM
I'm usually our tiebreaker guru and we have a new structure and new tiebreakers so I'm going to run through this partially out of curiosity and partially as practice for the real thing. 

Per @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's simulation the standings heading into the final weekend are:

The two-loss teams (tOSU, UNL) are eliminated because they can do no better than 7-2 while M/PSU can do no worse than 8-1. 

Michigan:
The Wolverines have clinched a spot in the B1G because they have a H2H win over Oregon.  If they lose they'll be 8-1 and they'll either get in with no tiebreaker (if Oregon also loses), beat Oregon on tiebreakers (if Ore and PSU both win), or win the three-way tiebreaker with Ore and PSU. 

Penn State:

The Nittany Lions are in with a win.  They would also be in with an Oregon loss.  It gets tricky if they lose AND Oregon wins.  Then PSU and Oregon both finish 8-1.  That would be a two way tie for second if M beats tOSU or a three-way tie for first if tOSU beats M.  We'll look at those after we discuss Oregon. 

Oregon:
The Ducks need a win just to get into the conversation but they also need a PSU loss.  A Michigan loss doesn't really help them because the Ducks lost in Ann Arbor.  Actually, a Michigan loss *MIGHT* hurt them depending on how you read the H2H tiebreaker. 

Potential ties:
M and PSU tie for first place at 9-0 (M beats tOSU, PSU beats UMD):
M and PSU tie for first place at 8-1 (tOSU beats M, UMD beats PSU, UWash beats Ore):
M, PSU, and Ore all tie for first place at 8-1 (tOSU beats M, UMD beats PSU, Ore beats UWash):
M and Ore tie for second place at 8-1 (tOSU beats M, PSU beats UMD, Ore beats UWash):
PSU and Ore tie for second place at 8-1 (M beats tOSU, UMD beats PSU, Ore beats UWash):
So there you have it.  Short version:

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2024, 11:02:34 PM
Also seems like the Big Ten and SEC have possibly locked up a minimum of 8 bids?

ACC Champ, 2 Big 12 teams and the Group of 5 rep?
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2024, 08:27:49 AM
This is about what I think UGA will do this year, probably 10-2, I'm not so sure of course about LSU.    It's fun.

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 03, 2024, 11:10:01 AM
This is about what I think UGA will do this year, probably 10-2, I'm not so sure of course about LSU.    It's fun.
Heh, this is why I always try to finish before the season starts.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 03, 2024, 01:33:36 PM
I realize that this is only a simulation but if it plays out like this, tOSU's league schedule is brutal.  There are five teams with two or less losses heading into the final game.  The Buckeyes play the other four.  For comparison:



So far per this simulation the home team is 4-0.  
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 03, 2024, 04:05:33 PM
WEEK FOURTEEN
Tuesday, November 26

THANKSGIVING

Friday, November 29


Saturday, November 30
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbus, OH
#10 OHIO STATE d. #3 MICHIGAN


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 03, 2024, 04:19:49 PM
WEEK 14 POLL


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 03, 2024, 04:21:42 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/mVC3gME.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/CLt4LWN.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/ItVYkpn.png)
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2024, 04:21:59 PM
damn!
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2024, 04:36:15 PM
Ooof tough business.  Horns beat Michigan and Georgia but lose to the hated sooners and ags.  That season would be viewed as a failure here in Austin.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2024, 04:56:19 PM
yup, I'd take 8-4 for my Huskers

with 3 losses on the road and only 1 loss in Lincoln

BUT, a loss at home to the Buffs and the loss to Iowa for me would be tough since I live in the state of Iowa

losses are always tough but I can get over losses to USC and tOSU on the road
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 03, 2024, 06:05:44 PM
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND
Friday, December 6


Saturday, December 7
ESPN College Gameday, live from Atlanta, GA
#3 LSU d. #5 Missouri


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 03, 2024, 06:16:54 PM
WEEK 15 POLL


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 03, 2024, 06:18:52 PM
WEEK SIXTEEN
Saturday, December 14


Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 03, 2024, 10:10:14 PM
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND
Friday, December 6
  • Fresno State d. #21 Boise State
  • Middle Tennessee d. Jacksonville State
  • UTSA d. Memphis
Saturday, December 7
ESPN College Gameday, live from Atlanta, GA
#3 LSU d. #5 Missouri
  • #1 PENN STATE d. #9 MICHIGAN
  • #4 Oklahoma State d. #12 Baylor
  • #11 Miami d. #17 Clemson
  • #16 James Madison d. South Alabama
  • Ohio d. Kent State
Taking a stab at the CFP seeds based on this (using @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's AP Poll):

As I understand it, PSU, LSU, OkSU, and Miami get a bye and:

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 04, 2024, 02:42:09 PM
POSTSEASON SCHEDULE

DECEMBER 14
CAMELLLIABowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
.
DECEMBER 17
FRISCOFIU vs. Georgia State
.
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATONBoston College vs. Charlotte
LAArizona State vs. Fresno State
.
DECEMBER 19
NEW ORLEANSArkansas State vs. Liberty
.
DECEMBER 20
CUREEast Carolina vs. San Jose State
GASPARILLADuke vs. Florida Atlantic
CFP#10(11) MICHIGAN at #5(6) Missouri
.
DECEMBER 21
CFP#11(10) Georgia at #7(7) OHIO STATE
CFP#16(12) James Madison at #4(5) OREGON
CFP#9 Texas at #8 Oklahoma
.
DECEMBER 23
MYRTLE BEACHSouth Alabama vs. Tulane
POTATO#25 Boise State vs. Toledo
.
DECEMBER 24
HAWAIIHawaii vs. Jacksonville State
.
DECEMBER 26
DETROITMICHIGAN STATE vs. Ohio
GUARANTEED RATECentral Florida vs. Air Force
68 VENTURESNorthern Illinois vs. Troy
.
DECEMBER 27
BIRMINGHAMWake Forest vs. UAB
ARMED FORCESOregon State vs. Rice
LIBERTYIowa State vs. Marshall
HOLIDAYArizona vs. California
LAS VEGASTexas A&M vs. WASHINGTON
.
DECEMBER 28
FENWAYVirginia Tech vs. Memphis
PINSTRIPE#18 Notre Dame vs. NORTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICOTexas State vs. Wyoming
POP TARTS#14 Cincinnati vs. #15 SMU
ARIZONAKent State vs. San Diego State
MILITARYLouisville vs. UTSA
ALAMO#12 Baylor vs. USC
INDEPENDENCEWashington State vs. West Virginia
.
DECEMBER 30
MUSIC CITYKentucky vs. MINNESOTA
.
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#19 Tennessee vs. #21 RUTGERS
SUN#24 Utah vs. North Carolina
CITRUS#13 Alabama vs. NEBRASKA
TEXAS#22 Kansas vs. Mississippi State
FIESTA#3(3) Oklahoma State vs. #5(6) Missouri/#10(11) MICHIGAN
.
JANUARY 1
PEACH#6(4) Miami vs. #4(5) OREGON/#16(12) James Madison
ROSE#1(1) PENN STATE vs. #8(8) Oklahoma/#9(9) Texas
SUGAR#2(2) LSU vs. #7(7) OHIO STATE/#11(10) Georgia
.
JANUARY 2
GATOR#20 Ole Miss vs. #23 Florida State
.
JANUARY 3
FIRST RESPONDERSPittsburgh vs. North Texas
MAYO#17 Clemson vs. IOWA
.
JANUARY 4
BAHAMASBuffalo vs. Middle Tennessee
.
JANUARY 9
ORANGECFP SEMIFINALS
.
JANUARY 10
COTTONCFP SEMIFINALS

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 04, 2024, 03:56:25 PM
POSTSEASON SCHEDULE
DECEMBER 20
CFP#10 MICHIGAN at #5 Missouri
.
DECEMBER 21
CFP#11 Georgia at #7 OHIO STATE
CFP#16 James Madison at #4 OREGON
CFP#9 Texas at #8 Oklahoma
DECEMBER 31
FIESTA#3 Oklahoma State vs. #5 Missouri/#10 MICHIGAN
JANUARY 1
PEACH#6 Miami vs. #4 OREGON/#16 James Madison
ROSE#1 PENN STATE vs. #8 Oklahoma/#9 Texas
SUGAR#2 LSU vs. #7 OHIO STATE/#11 Georgia
JANUARY 9
ORANGECFP SEMIFINALS
.
JANUARY 10
COTTONCFP SEMIFINALS
I'm not saying you are wrong because this is all new and I'm certainly not sure but how did you figure these match-ups?  

Is James Madison a League Champion?  I'm pretty sure that the G5 is the "Highest ranked G5 League Champion" not just the highest ranked non P4 so I don't think it is them.  

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 04, 2024, 04:03:16 PM
I'm assuming the committee will try to avoid conference matchups in seeding, so that is their ranking, not necessarily their seed.  I went back in and put the seeds in.

The top 4 seeds are the 4 highest champions, so Miami winds up as the 4 seed, jumping 2 non-champs (Oregon and Missouri)

JMU is the highest rated Group of 5 champ, they won the Sun Belt
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 04, 2024, 08:21:53 PM
Update through December 30

DECEMBER 14
CAMELLLIAGeorgia Southern d. Bowling Green
.
DECEMBER 17
FRISCOGeorgia State d. FIU
.
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATONBoston College d. Charlotte
LAArizona State d. Fresno State
.
DECEMBER 19
NEW ORLEANSLiberty d. Arkansas State
.
DECEMBER 20
CUREEast Carolina d. San Jose State
GASPARILLADuke d. Florida Atlantic
CFP#5(6) Missouri d. #10(11) MICHIGAN
.
DECEMBER 21
CFP#7(7) OHIO STATE d. #11(10) Georgia
CFP#4(5) OREGON d. #16(12) James Madison
CFP (ESPN Gameday)#9 Texas d. #8 Oklahoma
.
DECEMBER 23
MYRTLE BEACHTulane d. South Alabama
POTATO#25 Boise State d. Toledo
.
DECEMBER 24
HAWAIIHawaii d. Jacksonville State
.
DECEMBER 26
DETROITOhio d. MICHIGAN STATE
GUARANTEED RATECentral Florida d. Air Force
68 VENTURESTroy d. Northern Illinois
.
DECEMBER 27
BIRMINGHAMWake Forest d. UAB
ARMED FORCESOregon State d. Rice
LIBERTYIowa State d. Marshall
HOLIDAYCalifornia d. Arizona
LAS VEGASTexas A&M d. WASHINGTON
.
DECEMBER 28
FENWAYVirginia Tech d. Memphis
PINSTRIPE#18 Notre Dame d. NORTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICOWyoming d. Texas State
POP TARTS#14 Cincinnati d. #15 SMU
ARIZONASan Diego State d. Kent State
MILITARYUTSA d. Louisville
ALAMOUSC d. #12 Baylor
INDEPENDENCEWest Virginia d. Washington State
.
DECEMBER 30
MUSIC CITYKentucky d. MINNESOTA
.
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#19 Tennessee vs. #21 RUTGERS
SUN#24 Utah vs. North Carolina
CITRUS#13 Alabama vs. NEBRASKA
TEXAS#22 Kansas vs. Mississippi State
FIESTA#3(3) Oklahoma State vs. #5(6) Missouri
.
JANUARY 1
PEACH#6(4) Miami vs. #4(5) OREGON
ROSE#1(1) PENN STATE vs. #9(9) Texas
SUGAR#2(2) LSU vs. #7(7) OHIO STATE
.
JANUARY 2
GATOR#20 Ole Miss vs. #23 Florida State
.
JANUARY 3
FIRST RESPONDERSPittsburgh vs. North Texas
MAYO#17 Clemson vs. IOWA
.
JANUARY 4
BAHAMASBuffalo vs. Middle Tennessee
.
JANUARY 9
ORANGECFP SEMIFINALS
.
JANUARY 10
COTTONCFP SEMIFINALS
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 04, 2024, 08:41:17 PM
Update through January 4

DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#19 Tennessee d. #21 RUTGERS
SUN#24 Utah d. North Carolina
CITRUS#13 Alabama d. NEBRASKA
TEXAS#22 Kansas d. Mississippi State
FIESTA#5(6) Missouri d. #3(3) Oklahoma State
.
JANUARY 1
PEACH#6(4) Miami d. #4(5) OREGON
ROSE#9(9) Texas d. #1(1) PENN STATE
SUGAR#2(2) LSU d. #7(7) OHIO STATE
.
JANUARY 2
GATOR#23 Florida State d. #20 Ole Miss
.
JANUARY 3
FIRST RESPONDERSPittsburgh d. North Texas
MAYOIOWA d. #17 Clemson
.
JANUARY 4
BAHAMASBuffalo d. Middle Tennessee
.
JANUARY 9
ORANGE#2(2) LSU vs. #5(6) Missouri
.
JANUARY 10
COTTON#6(4) Miami vs. #9(9) Texas
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 04, 2024, 08:43:53 PM
Update through CFP Semifinals

JANUARY 9
ORANGE#5(6) Missouri d. #2(2) LSU
.
JANUARY 10
COTTON#9(9) Texas d. #6(4) Miami
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 04, 2024, 08:46:07 PM
Championship Update

JANUARY 20
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP#5(6) Missouri d. #9(9) Texas
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 04, 2024, 08:46:21 PM
National champion...Missouri...?
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: MarqHusker on September 04, 2024, 09:06:20 PM
Seeing a fifth down is more likely.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 04, 2024, 09:22:15 PM
Update through CFP Semifinals
JANUARY 9
ORANGE#5(6) Missouri d. #2(2) LSU
.
JANUARY 10
COTTON#9(9) Texas d. #6(4) Miami
I guess I'm just old but when I saw that the NC would be Mizzou vs Texas my first thought was:
Big8 vs SWC.

It took me a second to realize that nope, this would be an internal SEC thing via:

Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 04, 2024, 10:18:07 PM
SP+ loves Missouri.  I think a big part of the issue is still counting bowl results.  Missouri took it to Ohio States backups.  I dont think any non CFP poataeason results ahould count.

Granted its not like Missouri is the SP+ favorite.  I adjust the numbers if a team is +/- 2, and Missouri is still just #5 in the SEC.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on September 05, 2024, 07:27:21 AM
damn, didn't get 9 wins
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on September 05, 2024, 07:43:29 AM
damn, didn't get 9 wins
Fire Rhule!
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on September 05, 2024, 08:22:45 AM
Osborne would have been fired with only 8 wins
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2024, 09:51:25 AM
Wow.

And Wisconsin misses a bowl game for the first time since 2001.
Title: Re: 2024 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: utee94 on September 05, 2024, 09:57:35 AM
Nice playoff run there, at least we didn't lose to the hated sooners a second time.

But wow, losing the big one to Missouri of all schools, that stings!  I wasn't even sure they had a football team??