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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on August 12, 2024, 01:24:52 PM

Title: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: Temp430 on August 12, 2024, 01:24:52 PM
AP Preseason Top 25

1. Georgia
2. O (https://athlonsports.com/cfb/teams/ohio-state-buckeyes)hio State
3. Oregon
4. Texas
5. Alabama
6. O (https://athlonsports.com/cfb/teams/ole-miss-rebels)le Miss
7. Notre Dame
8. P (https://athlonsports.com/cfb/teams/penn-state-nittany-lions)enn State
9. Michigan
10. F (https://athlonsports.com/cfb/teams/florida-state-seminoles)lorida State
11. Missouri
12. Utah
13. LSU
14. Clemson
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Oklahoma State
18. Kansas State
19. Miami
20. T (https://athlonsports.com/cfb/teams/texas-am-aggies)exas AM
21. Arizona
22. Kansas
23. USC
24. N (https://athlonsports.com/cfb/teams/nc-state-wolfpack)C State
25. Iowa


https://athlonsports.com/college-football/ap-preseason-top-25-released-for-2024-college-football-season-georgia-bulldogs-ohio-state-buckeyes (https://athlonsports.com/college-football/ap-preseason-top-25-released-for-2024-college-football-season-georgia-bulldogs-ohio-state-buckeyes)
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2024, 01:30:25 PM
I like these rankings.
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2024, 01:39:26 PM
You're not allowed to think that and certainly not allowed to say it.  We must all disparage the rankings and call the voters a bunch of idiots and/or sheeple and/or biased in favor of/against particular teams.

Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: bayareabadger on August 12, 2024, 01:54:23 PM
TEAMS AND NUMBERS! TEAMS AND NUMBERS!!
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: Mdot21 on August 12, 2024, 03:02:30 PM
swap Ole Miss and Bama and Missouri and Florida State and I think they pretty much nailed it.
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 12, 2024, 03:49:41 PM
Combining the two polls, what follows is:
AP Rank. Team, Coaches Rank


It is the exact same 25 teams and the only differences are pretty slight:

Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 12, 2024, 04:08:55 PM
Just for help in understanding the new 12-team CFP format if we use the AP and assume that the highest ranked team from each league will win that league, here would be the 2024 CFP seeds:


Thus the first two rounds would be:

The Semi-finals would be:


League mix is:
SEC, 4:
B1G, 4:
ACC, 1:
B12, 1:
Independent, 1:
WCC, 1:

Best teams left out would be:

The above is my understanding, if someone disagrees please explain.  I could be wrong, this is new. 
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2024, 04:17:17 PM
Looks correct to me.
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2024, 06:26:43 PM
Oregon gets the prized #5 spot
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2024, 06:27:47 PM
If the B1G would add Notre Dame and the SEC would add FSU.......

Top 10
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 12, 2024, 07:55:39 PM
Any system including an unranked team and omitting the #11 team is a great system.
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2024, 08:09:14 PM
lawyers and judges, dude
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 13, 2024, 10:51:20 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 12, 2024, 07:55:39 PM
Any system including an unranked team and omitting the #11 team is a great system.
As you know, I generally agree with you but two things to consider:

First this:
Quote from: FearlessF on August 12, 2024, 08:09:14 PM
lawyers and judges, dude
There really isn't a choice. If the G5 was shutout the CFP would get legal and political issues.

Second:
The best team left out is the fifth best team in the SEC, Mizzou. This really isn't terribly troubling to me as I don't think they are a realistic NC Conteder and there are already four teams representing the SEC.
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 13, 2024, 11:13:31 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 12, 2024, 06:26:43 PM
Oregon gets the prized #5 spot
Let's analyze this.

Suppose that Oregon beats Ohio State in Autzen on October 12 and heads to Indianapolis for the B1GCG ranked #2 and 12-0. In Indianapolis they meet up with an 11-1 Ohio State team ranked #3.

At that point there are two likely outcomes for the Ducks:

Here is how those two paths compare:
First round:
This is an advantage for the #2 seed but not much of one.

Second round:
This is a HUMONGOUS advantage for the #5 seed.

Semi-finals:
I see this as a likely advantage for the #2 seed but that assumes that Georgia doesn't get upset in the second round.

Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 13, 2024, 11:32:51 AM
What if we had a 5+3 instead of the 5+7?

Same assumptions as above:


First Round:
Semi-Finals:


League mix is:
SEC, 3:
B1G, 2:
ACC, 1:
B12, 1:
MWC, 1:


Best teams left out would be:

The four teams thus excluded are:

Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: Cincydawg on August 13, 2024, 02:42:21 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ksu3SBc.jpeg)
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 13, 2024, 08:43:07 PM
ND has been stuck at #7 for 88 years. 
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: bayareabadger on August 13, 2024, 09:14:06 PM
It’s nice they rank these teams. Helps hype some early games. 
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2024, 11:20:30 PM
As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
Here are the full rankings:
Team SP+ Off. SP+ Def. SP+ ST SP+
1. Georgia 34.2 46.2 (3) 12.0 (5) 0.7 (4)
2. Ohio St. 30.8 35.7 (25) 4.9 (2) 0.5 (20)
3. Oregon 29.0 47.1 (1) 18.1 (15) -0.2 (85)
4. Alabama 27.8 42.7 (7) 14.9 (8) 0.7 (2)
5. Texas 27.7 44.4 (4) 16.8 (12) 0.5 (17)
6. Penn St. 26.1 35.8 (24) 9.7 (4) 0.4 (28)
7. Michigan 25.0 31.9 (41) 6.9 (3) 0.6 (7)
8. Ole Miss 24.7 42.9 (6) 18.3 (16) 0.5 (26)
9. Notre Dame 23.4 39.0 (10) 15.6 (9) 0.2 (53)
10. LSU 23.1 46.3 (2) 23.2 (38) -0.1 (83)
11. Missouri 22.2 40.7 (8) 18.5 (19) 0.3 (45)
12. Florida St. 19.9 36.2 (21) 16.2 (10) 0.6 (8)
13. Oklahoma 19.8 37.1 (17) 17.3 (13) -0.3 (95)
14. Texas A&M 19.2 38.2 (11) 19.0 (24) 0.0 (73)
15. Tennessee 19.2 37.7 (14) 18.6 (20) 0.2 (52)
16. Clemson 18.8 36.5 (19) 17.7 (14) 0.1 (66)
17. Kansas St. 16.4 36.3 (20) 19.9 (28) -0.3 (91)
18. Utah 15.8 32.5 (37) 16.7 (11) 0.4 (34)
19. Miami 15.5 37.3 (16) 21.9 (34) 0.7 (3)
20. Oklahoma St. 14.0 37.9 (12) 23.9 (42) 0.3 (42)
21. USC 13.9 44.4 (5) 30.5 (83) -0.4 (100)
22. Kentucky 13.8 34.4 (28) 20.6 (31) 0.4 (39)
23. Florida 13.2 36.9 (18) 23.7 (41) 0.6 (9)
24. Iowa 13.2 17.9 (114) 4.7 (1) 0.4 (30)
25. Auburn 13.1 32.3 (38) 19.2 (25) 0.5 (27)
26. Wisconsin 12.9 25.1 (77) 12.2 (7) 0.4 (29)
27. SMU 12.7 35.9 (22) 23.3 (39) -0.4 (99)
28. Arizona 12.4 37.9 (13) 25.6 (50) 0.0 (79)
29. NC St. 12.1 30.5 (53) 18.4 (18) 0.6 (15)
30. Iowa St. 11.5 29.8 (61) 18.3 (17) 0.4 (37)
31. Louisville 11.3 30.7 (49) 19.4 (27) 0.1 (64)
32. Washington 10.3 34.8 (26) 24.5 (44) 0.3 (47)
33. Kansas 9.7 37.7 (15) 28.0 (67) 0.1 (60)
34. W. Virginia 9.7 35.8 (23) 26.1 (54) 0.2 (54)
35. S. Carolina 9.5 30.0 (59) 20.5 (30) 0.6 (12)
36. Va. Tech 9.4 31.3 (43) 21.9 (35) 0.6 (14)
37. UCLA 8.8 30.3 (54) 21.5 (33) -0.5 (109)
38. TCU 8.7 33.3 (30) 24.6 (46) -0.1 (81)
39. Boise St. 7.9 32.6 (36) 24.8 (47) 0.5 (23)
40. N. Carolina 7.9 34.1 (29) 26.3 (55) 0.3 (46)
41. Texas Tech 7.4 31.9 (40) 24.5 (45) 0.4 (31)
42. Nebraska 7.4 19.4 (106) 12.0 (6) -0.5 (106)
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2024, 11:25:53 PM
College Football Power Index 2024


Georgia Bulldogs

Oregon Ducks

Texas Longhorns

Ohio State Buckeyes

Alabama Crimson Tide

Penn State Nittany Lions

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Oklahoma Sooners

Tennessee Volunteers

Missouri Tigers

Florida State Seminoles

Michigan Wolverines

LSU Tigers

Texas A&M Aggies

Clemson Tigers

Ole Miss Rebels

Kansas Jayhawks

USC Trojans

Auburn Tigers

Florida Gators

Louisville Cardinals

Kansas State Wildcats

Miami Hurricanes

Arizona Wildcats

SMU Mustangs

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Utah Utes

NC State Wolfpack

Texas Tech Red Raiders

TCU Horned Frogs

Washington Huskies

UCF Knights

South Carolina Gamecocks

Kentucky Wildcats

West Virginia Mountaineers

Colorado Buffaloes

Iowa Hawkeyes

Oregon State Beavers

Wisconsin Badgers

UCLA Bruins

Nebraska Cornhuskers

North Carolina Tar Heels

California Golden Bears

Arkansas Razorbacks

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Maryland Terrapins

Iowa State Cyclones

Boise State Broncos

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Virginia Tech Hokies

James Madison Dukes

Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 13, 2024, 11:42:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 13, 2024, 02:42:21 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ksu3SBc.jpeg)
What @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) is comparing here is the 2024 preseason AP Poll to the first ever AP Poll from October 19, 1936.  Note that they didn't do a preseason poll back then  and the first poll of 1936 wasn't until mid-October so all the teams had already played 3-5 games.  

Back then there were only 20 rather than 25 teams included in the poll so the above list is half of them, the others were:
Minnesota of the Big Ten won the inaugural AP NC with LSU of the SEC finishing second.  

In the final poll of 1936 fully half of the ranked teams (10 of 20) were independents.  The other half were:
SEC, 3:
BigTen, 2:
Southwest, 2:
Pacific Coast (forerunner to Pac8/10/12), 1:
Big 6, 1:
Southern (forerunner to ACC), 1:

Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2024, 08:30:36 AM
hoping Matt Rhule can take UNL back to the 30's
Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 14, 2024, 09:55:39 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 13, 2024, 11:20:30 PM
As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
Here are the full rankings:
Team SP+ Off. SP+ Def. SP+ ST SP+
1. Georgia 34.2 46.2 (3) 12.0 (5) 0.7 (4)
2. Ohio St. 30.8 35.7 (25) 4.9 (2) 0.5 (20)
3. Oregon 29.0 47.1 (1) 18.1 (15) -0.2 (85)
4. Alabama 27.8 42.7 (7) 14.9 (8) 0.7 (2)
5. Texas 27.7 44.4 (4) 16.8 (12) 0.5 (17)
6. Penn St. 26.1 35.8 (24) 9.7 (4) 0.4 (28)
7. Michigan 25.0 31.9 (41) 6.9 (3) 0.6 (7)
8. Ole Miss 24.7 42.9 (6) 18.3 (16) 0.5 (26)
9. Notre Dame 23.4 39.0 (10) 15.6 (9) 0.2 (53)
10. LSU 23.1 46.3 (2) 23.2 (38) -0.1 (83)
11. Missouri 22.2 40.7 (8) 18.5 (19) 0.3 (45)
One thing nice about SP+ and what stands out to me here is that they show the "score" for each team rather than just a ranking.  We tend to think of rankings as being absolute and uniform, ie, Georgia is one spot ahead of Ohio State and Ohio State is one spot ahead of Oregon but that isn't really the case.  Sometimes #1 and #2 are a near-tie and there is a huge gap before #3.  Other times, there is a huge gap between #1 and #2 then #2 is close to #3.  

In this case note that #1 UGA's score is 34.2.  That is 3.4 better than #2 tOSU's 30.8.  #2 Ohio State is closer to #3 Oregon, #4 Bama, and #5 Texas than they are to #1 UGA.  In fact, #6 PSU is almost as close to #2 tOSU as #2 tOSU is to #1 UGA.  

So I see this ranking as:

Title: Re: AP Preseason Top 25
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2024, 10:34:49 AM
this can be done with most "rankings"

probably should be grouped together much more often

teams could be ranked #12 and #18, but when they meet on the field the vegas line might be 1 or 2