CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on August 07, 2024, 01:21:44 PM
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- Georgia (46)
- Ohio State (7)
- Oregon
- Texas (1)
- Bama
- Ole Miss
- Notre Dame
- Michigan (1)
- Penn State
- Florida State
- Missouri
- LSU
- Utah
- Clemson
- Tennessee
- Oklahoma
- Kansas State
- Oklahoma State
- Miami, FL
- Texas A&M
- Arizona
- NCST
- USC
- Kansas
- Iowa
So a third of our teams are ranked and there are others with votes:
- 26 Washington
- 34 Wisconsin
- 42 Maryland
- 49 Nebraska
I think the ranked teams can be evaluated as pairs since they are so closely grouped:
#2 Ohio State and #3 Oregon:
These two are expected to make the playoff AND contend for the NC. Missing the 12-team playoff would be a major disappointment. Their game at Autzen on October 12 could end up being the first of two or three meetings this year. Aside from facing each other, their other games against ranked teams are:
- at #8 Michigan for Ore on 11/2
- vs #8 Michigan for tOSU on 11/30
- at #9 Penn State for tOSU on 11/2
- vs #25 Iowa for tOSU on 10/5 (a week before Oregon so could the Buckeyes get caught looking ahead?)
#8 Michigan and #9 Penn State:
These two are expected to contend for the playoff but missing it wouldn't be THAT big of a disappointment. They don't play each other. Michigan has the chances to take down the top ranked teams in the league and that is either a blessing or a curse depending on how those games go. They get the Ducks at home on 11/2 and the Buckeyes on the road on 11/30. Games against ranked teams:
- at #2 Ohio State for M on 11/30
- vs #2 Ohio State for PSU on 11/2
- vs #3 Oregon for M on 11/2
- vs #4 Texas for M on 9/7
- at #23 USC for PSU on 10/12
- vs #23 USC for M on 9/21
Michigan's schedule is tough, no doubt about it. It helps that they host both Oregon and Texas but if HFA isn't enough to win those games, they could have three losses even as a REALLY good team.
#23 USC and #25 Iowa:
These two project as fringe CG contenders and fringe CFP contenders. If they get a few breaks and the tOSU/Ore loser also loses another league game, they could be right in the mix for a spot in the B1GCG. They don't play each other. Games against ranked teams:
- at #2 Ohio State for Iowa on 10/5
- at #8 Michigan for USC on 9/21
- vs #9 Penn State for USC on 10/12
- vs #7 Notre Dame for USC on 11/30
Iowa's schedule is soft. Even if you simply assume that they lose in Columbus they could still take an upset somewhere along the line and end up 10-2. That could be enough to sneak into the B1GCG.
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the Huskers got votes???!!!
Geez
drinking the Rhule-aid
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I think UNL is going to be pretty good this season.
I have them beating Wisconsin for the first time since 2012.
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I think UNL is going to be pretty good this season.
I have them beating Wisconsin for the first time since 2012.
That’s wild. Been a long time since they split the season series.
(in retrospect, a pretty defining season, for Nebraska in the conference)
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I think Michigan may be a bit over rated. They'll be good but need a serviceable QB that can complete more than the high percentage passes to compete for the Big Ten title. Haven't seen that from any of Michigan's QBs to date.
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That’s wild. Been a long time since they split the season series.
(in retrospect, a pretty defining season, for Nebraska in the conference)
Me and you got the better end of that split.
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I think UNL is going to be pretty good this season.
I have them beating Wisconsin for the first time since 2012.
if the Huskers beat the Badgers it would be a great season
possibly 9 or 10 wins if that happens
2012 was the last time - 10-4 that season
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I pribably can't do any better, I see some teams I do wonder about, like Ole Miss. I think Missouri would end up 10-2 and ranked in the top ten, same with Tennessee. The Vols have two tough games and then Oklahoma, which might or might not be good. UGA could have a really good team and end up 9-3.
The top 3 nearly always end up in the top ten, FSU one year was 3rd and ended unranked. That is unusual. The top ten preseason usually have 1-2 busts in the 4-10 range, teams that end up 8-4ish.
So much depends on injuries, missed FGs, turnovers, weird plays, ...
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I think Michigan may be a bit over rated. They'll be good but need a serviceable QB that can complete more than the high percentage passes to compete for the Big Ten title. Haven't seen that from any of Michigan's QBs to date.
The trouble for Michigan is that they have no room for error. Per the preseason rankings they are playing three top-4 teams:
- at #2 Ohio State
- vs #3 Oregon
- vs #4 Texas
With that schedule they could be REALLY good, like top-10 good and suffer no upsets and still only end up 9-3.
The oddity to Michigan's schedule is that there isn't much "middle" to it. They have the aforementioned three top-4 teams, then a home game against #23 USC and a road game against almost-ranked Washington. Lets say they go 9-3 with losses to the three top-4 teams. It will be tough to tell if they are #5 or #20. All we'll know for sure is that they aren't quite as good as the top-4, no shame in that, and they are better than the barely-ranked teams which isn't all that impressive.
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I think Michigan may be a bit over rated. They'll be good but need a serviceable QB that can complete more than the high percentage passes to compete for the Big Ten title. Haven't seen that from any of Michigan's QBs to date.
kind of where I'm at. schedule is brutal as hell and the QB situation is VERY iffy and unproven. They'll rebuild the OL successfully imo. They have really good RB's led by Donovan Edwards and Colston Loveland is a stud TE.
the only reason I'm pretty high on them at all though is their defense. it should once again be very gnarly, even with the losses of nickel Mike Sainstril, ILB Juinor Colson, DT Kris Jenkins Jr., EDGE Jaylen Harrell, and EDGE Braiden McGregor. DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, CB Will Johnson, EDGE Derrick Moore, ILB Jaishawn Barham, and ILB Ernest Hausmann were all just true sophomores last year. They are all already very good players with room to improve and every single one of those guys is a future Sunday player. Mason Graham and Will Johnson were both named top at their positions by PFF and are both mocked as top 10 draft picks in 2025. Kenneth Grant was named the 4th best DT by PFF and he's being mocked as a 1st round pick as well.
The transfer Barham has been making huge noise in spring and fall- lot of the insidery types are expecting him to be an even better player than Junior Colson and a potential 1st round pick. FS Rod Moore will be out for at least half the year and that's a huge blow as he's a borderline elite safety- but he is expected to comeback and he's one of the very best free safeties in the entire country. The other safeties Makari Paige and Quentin Johnson are very good and very experienced. EDGE Josaiah Stewart returns for his SR and he was their best pure pass rusher in his first year on the team as a transfer last season. Rayshaun Benny returns from a late season 2023 injury to help add depth to their DT rotation- and that kid is severely underrated- very good ball player and would be a starter at most other B1G schools and would've been one at Michigan already if not for the fact that he had two 1st round picks (Graham & Grant) and a 2nd round pick in front him at DT (Kris Jenkins Jr.). Watch out for Jyaire Hill at CB2....feel like he's going to breakout in a big way in his 2nd year and Michigan will have an elite CB duo. Call it a hunch- he just physically/athletically looks the part of what you'd want to build a CB in a lab to look like- much like Will Johnson.
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kind of where I'm at. schedule is brutal as hell and the QB situation is VERY iffy and unproven. They'll rebuild the OL successfully imo. They have really good RB's led by Donovan Edwards and Colston Loveland is a stud TE.
the only reason I'm pretty high on them at all though is their defense. it should once again be very gnarly, even with the losses of nickel Mike Sainstril, ILB Juinor Colson, DT Kris Jenkins Jr., EDGE Jaylen Harrell, and EDGE Braiden McGregor. DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, CB Will Johnson, EDGE Derrick Moore, ILB Jaishawn Barham, and ILB Ernest Hausmann were all just true sophomores last year. They are all already very good players with room to improve and every single one of those guys is a future Sunday player. Mason Graham and Will Johnson were both named top at their positions by PFF and are both mocked as top 10 draft picks in 2025. Kenneth Grant was named the 4th best DT by PFF and he's being mocked as a 1st round pick as well.
The transfer Barham has been making huge noise in spring and fall- lot of the insidery types are expecting him to be an even better player than Junior Colson and a potential 1st round pick. FS Rod Moore will be out for at least half the year and that's a huge blow as he's a borderline elite safety- but he is expected to comeback and he's one of the very best free safeties in the entire country. The other safeties Makari Paige and Quentin Johnson are very good and very experienced. EDGE Josaiah Stewart returns for his SR and he was their best pure pass rusher in his first year on the team as a transfer last season. Rayshaun Benny returns from a late season 2023 injury to help add depth to their DT rotation- and that kid is severely underrated- very good ball player and would be a starter at most other B1G schools and would've been one at Michigan already if not for the fact that he had two 1st round picks (Graham & Grant) and a 2nd round pick in front him at DT (Kris Jenkins Jr.). Watch out for Jyaire Hill at CB2....feel like he's going to breakout in a big way in his 2nd year and Michigan will have an elite CB duo. Call it a hunch- he just physically/athletically looks the part of what you'd want to build a CB in a lab to look like- much like Will Johnson.
This is also a tough schedule.
(https://i.imgur.com/gpIYfSv.png)
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This is also a tough schedule.
(https://i.imgur.com/gpIYfSv.png)
yeah that's pretty god damn tough too.
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I would be very, very happy with 8-4 with that schedule. Anything more than 8, I would be ecstatic.
I do think they can beat USC and give Bama a game in Madison. PSU has their number of late. Oregon, even in Madison, is a tough one.
At Iowa, at NU, and at Nebraska are never easy. Even at Rutgers could be tough. They are getting better.
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I feel like Wisconsin's schedule doesn't quite have the top-end that Michigan's has but it is deeper. Michigan plays three of the preseason top-4 teams, that is a brutal top end but after that there is a notable dropoff. Wisconsin "only" has one of the preseason top-4 but they have more ranked teams overall and they have Rutgers and Nebraska both of whom have potential to end up ranked.
I'll also note that Wisconsin's schedule would be ideal for a NC contender. They get all their toughest opponents at home:
- #3 Oregon in Camp Randall on 11/16
- #5 Bama in Camp Randall on 9/14
- #9 Penn State in Camp Randall on 10/26
The problem is that if Wisconsin isn't close enough to take those teams out with Camp Randall's famously strong HFA, the Badgers could be looking at a slew of losses because the next group are all on the road:
- #23 USC at the LA Coliseum on 9/28
- #25 Iowa at Kinnick on 11/2
- ORV Nebraska at Memorial Stadium on 11/23
- pretty good Rutgers in Jersey on 10/12
This is a great schedule for a top-5 team but it could be a brutal schedule for a team at the fringes of being good enough to be ranked.
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I feel like Wisconsin's schedule doesn't quite have the top-end that Michigan's has but it is deeper. Michigan plays three of the preseason top-4 teams, that is a brutal top end but after that there is a notable dropoff. Wisconsin "only" has one of the preseason top-4 but they have more ranked teams overall and they have Rutgers and Nebraska both of whom have potential to end up ranked.
I'll also note that Wisconsin's schedule would be ideal for a NC contender. They get all their toughest opponents at home:
- #3 Oregon in Camp Randall on 11/16
- #5 Bama in Camp Randall on 9/14
- #9 Penn State in Camp Randall on 10/26
The problem is that if Wisconsin isn't close enough to take those teams out with Camp Randall's famously strong HFA, the Badgers could be looking at a slew of losses because the next group are all on the road:
- #23 USC at the LA Coliseum on 9/28
- #25 Iowa at Kinnick on 11/2
- ORV Nebraska at Memorial Stadium on 11/23
- pretty good Rutgers in Jersey on 10/12
This is a great schedule for a top-5 team but it could be a brutal schedule for a team at the fringes of being good enough to be ranked.
This. I do think they are a year away, but this team is going to be MUCH better than last year's team. And even then, they could have a worse record to show for it!
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I think Michigan may be a bit over rated. They'll be good but need a serviceable QB that can complete more than the high percentage passes to compete for the Big Ten title. Haven't seen that from any of Michigan's QBs to date.
I think the defense is going to win them plenty of games and keep them in games against elite teams. Edwards and Loveland should help alleviate overwhelming pressure and Orji has great athleticism to buy himself time. That being said, can he make a difficult throw? Can he avoid major mistakes? He will definitely be the factor that determines 2024.
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My facebook somewhat lit up over this, it's amazing how many folks take this seriously. Some Michigan fans think they should be #1 instead of UGA, who didn't even make the playoff last season.
It's fun.
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My facebook somewhat lit up over this, it's amazing how many folks take this seriously. Some Michigan fans think they should be #1 instead of UGA, who didn't even make the playoff last season.
It's fun.
those people are called retards.
Carson Beck is a likely 1st round NFL draft pick QB. Michigan doesn't have a QB right now. Kind of hard to win without a QB.
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I think the defense is going to win them plenty of games and keep them in games against elite teams. Edwards and Loveland should help alleviate overwhelming pressure and Orji has great athleticism to buy himself time. That being said, can he make a difficult throw? Can he avoid major mistakes? He will definitely be the factor that determines 2024.
I am excited to see if Edwards can be the dude I think he can be. We saw flashes of it in '22 when he took over after Corum got hurt and he went ballistic, but he was fighting through injuries and kind of in the coaches doghouse for most of '23, until he had a really nice game late in the year on the road vs Penn State and then went nuts in the Natty. Edwards is so fluid and explosive and has rare route running and pass catching abilities for a RB. He could be in store for a monster year now that Corum is gone and he's "THE GUY".
QB is the achilles heel of the team. And that's probably the worst achilles heel a team can have. I just don't think they have a dude there. All due respect to Jack Tuttle, Davis Warren, or Alex Orji...but I don't see it.
The defense will keep them in every single game and has a chance to be the best in the country. They lost Junior Colson and could actually wind up being better at LB this year with the emergence of Ernest Hausmann and the transfer Jaishawn Barham. Barham is a freakish athlete for his size and has been creating tons of buzz since day one in the spring. They return a ton of starting experience and talent at DT/EDGE but will have to rebuild depth at EDGE losing Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell. Losing FS Rod Moore for at least half the year really sucks but they still have Makari Paige and Quentin Johnson coming back at safety. If CB Jyaire Hill has the kind of breakout season he's capable of they will be really tough to throw the football on.
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if your QB sucks, your offence sucks
ask the Big Ten West teams from last season
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if your QB sucks, your offence sucks
ask the Big Ten West teams from last season
yup. QB ain't the most important position in all of sports for no reason....
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QB is the achilles heel of the team. And that's probably the worst achilles heel a team can have. I just don't think they have a dude there. All due respect to Jack Tuttle, Davis Warren, or Alex Orji...but I don't see it.
If Michigan and Harbaugh had a downfall, it was that prior to JJ, they tried to force QBs to play a certain way, instead of adapting the game plan to the talents of the QB. So we don't really know if Orji sucks as a qb. We do know if they try to play him like JJ, he will... BUT.. he is incredibly athletic and if they adapt to his skillset, we don't really know what level he'll be at. The biggest question is, do they adapt the type of team they are for a year or two to adapt to an Orji or do they stick to their modus operandi and force Orji to learn to adapt or fail in the system? I don't believe we'll have a better understanding until week 2.
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if they've just won a national title........ they stick to their modus operandi
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If Michigan and Harbaugh had a downfall, it was that prior to JJ, they tried to force QBs to play a certain way, instead of adapting the game plan to the talents of the QB. So we don't really know if Orji sucks as a qb. We do know if they try to play him like JJ, he will... BUT.. he is incredibly athletic and if they adapt to his skillset, we don't really know what level he'll be at. The biggest question is, do they adapt the type of team they are for a year or two to adapt to an Orji or do they stick to their modus operandi and force Orji to learn to adapt or fail in the system? I don't believe we'll have a better understanding until week 2.
I wouldn't say the downfall was trying to force QB's to play a certain way.
The downfall was Jeem not recruiting high level QBs post JJ and then Sherrone Moore not getting a high level one on short notice this off-season.
Jeem never really offered any top QB's in 2022 (should've offered Drew Allar...not saying he'd have goten him...but he didn't even try) and in 2023 he face planted and missed on freaking every QB he went after- most noticeably 5* QB Dante Moore who was in his backyard.
And then there were some really good ones in the portal in 2024 for Sherrone Moore to try and snatch and he got traction with exactly....none of them. Cam Ward went to Miami, Aidan Chiles to Sparty, Dante Moore to Oregon, Malik Murphy to Duke, Riley Leonard to ND, Will Rogers to Washington, DJU to FSU, Dillon Gabriel to Oregon, Jaden Rashada to UGA. If they were able to add any one of those guys to the QB room I would be feeling a lot better right now.
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This. I do think they are a year away, but this team is going to be MUCH better than last year's team. And even then, they could have a worse record to show for it!
The funny thing about HFA is that I feel that if tOSU and UW swapped schedules, it would benefit both teams.
Wisconsin gets their three toughest opponents at home but unless I'm underrating UW, it probably will not matter. I don't think they can beat Oregon, Bama, or Penn State even with HFA so that HFA is likely to be "wasted" for UW. Then they have four tough games where HFA might be the difference (USC, Iowa, UNL, RU) but all four of those are on the road.
If Wisconsin had Ohio State's schedule I'd pretty much write off the road games at Oregon and PSU and figure that the Badgers would have a limited chance against Michigan with the benefit of HFA but that UW should beat UNL and Iowa at home and win the rest of their games for a 9-3 or possibly 10-2 record.
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I wouldn't say the downfall was trying to force QB's to play a certain way.
The downfall was Jeem not recruiting high level QBs post JJ and then Sherrone Moore not getting a high level one on short notice this off-season.
Jeem never really offered any top QB's in 2022 (should've offered Drew Allar...not saying he'd have goten him...but he didn't even try) and in 2023 he face planted and missed on freaking every QB he went after- most noticeably 5* QB Dante Moore who was in his backyard.
And then there were some really good ones in the portal in 2024 for Sherrone Moore to try and snatch and he got traction with exactly....none of them. Cam Ward went to Miami, Aidan Chiles to Sparty, Dante Moore to Oregon, Malik Murphy to Duke, Riley Leonard to ND, Will Rogers to Washington, DJU to FSU, Dillon Gabriel to Oregon, Jaden Rashada to UGA. If they were able to add any one of those guys to the QB room I would be feeling a lot better right now.
While I want to see it that way, I can't seem to shake how i feel they played and handled Shea Patterson as well as insisting to play Cade over JJ in 2021. Yes there was an experience gap.. a massive gap, but there was also a clear talent gap.
The other part I hated with a passion is that there were many games they could have lost because of the refusal to do anything but run up the middle on first down and Ray Charles could have seen the play coming. That won't work this year. Not even close.
So there were moments of missing elite qb talent, but there were moments of lack of creativity that could have elevated qb play as well.
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While I want to see it that way, I can't seem to shake how i feel they played and handled Shea Patterson as well as insisting to play Cade over JJ in 2021. Yes there was an experience gap.. a massive gap, but there was also a clear talent gap.
The other part I hated with a passion is that there were many games they could have lost because of the refusal to do anything but run up the middle on first down and Ray Charles could have seen the play coming. That won't work this year. Not even close.
So there were moments of missing elite qb talent, but there were moments of lack of creativity that could have elevated qb play as well.
not starting JJ by the midway point of the season in 2021 was definitely a big mistake imo. hindsight is 20/20 and I realize it's tough to say that with a straight face considering they won the B1G and made the playoff in '21.
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Someone kept telling us how JJ was the second coming and was Superman mixed with Mother Theresa.
Yeah, UM won the NC, that's true.
But JJ was a game manager. A 39% pass play-calling offense is proof. I'm not wanting to sit here and talk down on a NC-winning QB, but all the hyperbole was silly.
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Hyperbole is often exaggerated.
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The Left Coast teams are notoriously thin in the trenches, due to the lack of 300+ pounders in that region compared to the Southeast and Midwest. Did any of them get that straightened out with NIL? If not, that could spell disaster in the Big Ten.
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Somewhere King Berry is furrowing his brow over that Wisconsin schedule.
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similar to Tommie Frazier
great O-line, great RB, great defense
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The Left Coast teams are notoriously thin in the trenches, due to the lack of 300+ pounders in that region compared to the Southeast and Midwest. Did any of them get that straightened out with NIL? If not, that could spell disaster in the Big Ten.
USC had dominant lines when Pete was there. I think there’s obviously plenty of OL talent out west, the Pac has just tended to play a different style of ball for awhile. Much more spread open, finesse, high tempo. Nothing wrong with that as that obviously works to score lots of points, but perhaps some toughness does get lost in the process.
I do think it’s going to be very interesting to see their OL’s having to face defenses like Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, and Wisconsin who have become known for their tough ass front 7’s- week in week out.
Washington won the Joe Moore award for best OL and had both their starting tackles drafted, one in the 1st round and the other in the 2nd round and they flat out just couldn’t block Michigan’s front 7. Penix was running for his life or on his back almost the entire game.
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Fat talent
polynesia > out west
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Hyperbole is often exaggerated.
Tebow lived up to his.
Ron Powlus did not.
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fingers crossed for Dylan Raiola
O:-)
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Somewhere King Berry is furrowing his brow over that Wisconsin schedule.
Nah, he actually likes it.
He's in Platteville with the team, observing training camp.
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The first thing I look for is a returning experienced QB who was pretty good last season.
Then I like to see 3+ OLs returning.
Then something on D, a couple good LBs coming back.
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The first thing I look for is a returning experienced QB who was pretty good last season.
Then I like to see 3+ OLs returning.
Then something on D, a couple good LBs coming back.
Was this in response to a question? I missed the question.
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USC had dominant lines when Pete was there.
Or some other fella - McKay I believe his name was
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fingers crossed for Dylan Raiola
O:-)
Why did they discover some toe jam during his pedicure?
"With Nebraska, I always believed it was in my blood, it was in my heart, for a long time," Raiola explained, per Rivals.com.
Of course after committing to Ohio State before flipping his commitment to Georgia and moving there. Following the January 2023 announcement his top four schools,were Georgia, Nebraska, Oregon, and USC.
Hellz ya Bug Eaters All-The-Way :111: Kids these days
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he's probably the highest rated QB recruit ever at UNL.
don't need a bust
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The first thing I look for is a returning experienced QB who was pretty good last season.
Then I like to see 3+ OLs returning.
Then something on D, a couple good LBs coming back.
It’s funny you say that because WVU seems to check a lot of boxes for why a team would be ranked in the preseason, but a point of discussion amongst the fanbase is how little preseason love they are getting. WVU won 9 games last year and finished in the Coaches’ Top 25.
This year, they return:
-A Senior QB coming off a very good season
-Three returning OL including one with AA potential
-The top 3 rushers from last year’s team
-4 of the top 5 receivers from last year’s team
Despite that, they were only 33rd in the preseason coaches poll and Vegas odds only give them the 10th best chance to win the Big 12. It seems pretty clear that people feel a lot of WVU’s success was schedule driven (and it may have been) and don’t like what the Mountaineers lost off what was an inconsistent defense last year. Internally, the coaches feel getting a couple guys back from injury and what they got in the transfer portal will be a net plus on defense.
We’ll find out pretty quickly if WVU is getting slept on or not. The home opener against Penn St is one of the most highly anticipated games in Morgantown in years.
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he's probably the highest rated QB recruit ever at UNL.
don't need a bust
C'mon just once more for old times sake
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Tennessee is treating their new QB like the next Peyton Manning, based on a bowl game result.
Fine by me, he can go 0-3 vs the Gators, too.
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Going 0-3 against the Gators is a lot harder to do now than it was back then.
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Going 0-3 against the Gators is a lot harder to do now than it was back then.
I believe in him.
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Tennessee is treating their new QB like the next Peyton Manning, based on a bowl game result.
Fine by me, he can go 0-3 vs the Gators, too.
Keep dreaming, Sunbelt Billy.
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Keep dreaming, Sunbelt Billy.
(https://i.imgur.com/6pkwbMk.jpeg)
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Thought that might work.