CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on July 18, 2024, 11:22:27 AM
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By Sports Illustrated...
1. Ohio State, 10.5
1. Oregon, 10.5
3. Penn State, 10
4. Michigan, 9
5. USC, 8.5
6. Iowa, 7.5
6. Nebraska, 7.5
8. Washington, 7
9. Maryland, 6.5
9. Wisconsin, 6.5
11. Rutgers, 6
12. Illinois, 5.5
12. Indiana, 5.5
12. UCLA, 5.5
15. Michigan State, 5
16. Minnesota, 5
17. Northwestern, 4.5
18. Purdue, 4
https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/big-ten-football-win-total-predictions-for-2024-01hxsh9jbe0f (https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/big-ten-football-win-total-predictions-for-2024-01hxsh9jbe0f)
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By Sports Illustrated...
1. Ohio State, 10.5
1. Oregon, 10.5
3. Penn State, 10
4. Michigan, 9
5. USC, 8.5
6. Iowa, 7.5
6. Nebraska, 7.5
8. Washington, 7
9. Maryland, 6.5
9. Wisconsin, 6.5
11. Rutgers, 6
12. Illinois, 5.5
12. Indiana, 5.5
12. UCLA, 5.5
15. Michigan State, 5
16. Minnesota, 5
17. Northwestern, 4.5
18. Purdue, 4
https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/big-ten-football-win-total-predictions-for-2024-01hxsh9jbe0f (https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/big-ten-football-win-total-predictions-for-2024-01hxsh9jbe0f)
I assume this is regular season only?
Nowadays it pretty much has to be. Not that long ago everybody played 11 regular season games and maybe a bowl. I think the maximum now is 17:
- 12 regular season
- 1 CG
- 1 CFP opening round game
- 1 CFP Quarterfinal
- 1 CFP Semi-final
- 1 CFP Championship
So Ohio State's 10.5 could theoretically be 10-7 or 11-6:
- Regular season 8-4
- Lose CG to go to 8-5
- Win CFP opener to go to 9-5
- Win CFP Quarterfinal to go to 10-5
- Win CFP Semi-final to go to 11-5
- Lose CFP CG to finish 11-6
Granted, they probably wouldn't make the CG at 8-4 nor the CFP at 8-5.
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Seems like the smart money is on unders, including probably MSU
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Also, I thought Indiana is a mess. MSU, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland seem like obvious unders
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I'll take the over on UW. I'm bullish on them this season.
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Stats not liking UW for next year, but that’s mostly on the offense. If they get that in line and can survive a challenging schedule, could be interesting.
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I'm not sure for Ohio State because there are two competing realities:
On the one hand, Ohio State is retuning a LOT, got a LOT in the portal, and hasn't lost more than one regular season game much lately:
- 11-1 in 2023 with the loss to the eventual NC
- 11-1 in 2022 with the loss to a CFP team
- 10-2 in 2021 with losses to a PacCG loser and a CFP team
- 6-0 in 2020
- 12-0 in 2019
- 11-1 in 2018 with a blowout loss to a sub .500 Purdue team
- 10-2 in 2017 with a loss to a CFP team and a blowout loss to a mediocre Iowa
- 11-1 in 2016 with a loss to the B1G Champs
- 11-1 in 2015 with a loss to the B1G Champs
- 11-1 in 2014 with an early season loss to a good-but-not-great VaTech
- 12-0 in 2013
- 12-0 in 2012
- 6-6 in 2011 bad year, Tresselball without Tressel doesn't work
- 11-1 in 2010 with a loss to B1G co-Champs
- 10-2 in 2009 with a loss to a great USC team and one to a sub .500 Purdue team
- 10-2 in 2008 with losses to VERY good USC and PSU teams
- 11-1 in 2007 with a loss to Illinois
- 12-0 in 2006
- 9-2 in 2005 with a loss to the NC and another to the B1G Champs
- 7-4 in 2004 bad year
- 10-2 in 2003 with losses at Wisconsin and at Michigan
- 13-0 in 2002
- 7-4 in 2001 bad year
- 8-3 in 2000 with losses to mediocre Purdue and Minnesota teams and a good-but-not-great Michigan
- 6-6 in 1999 bad year
So in the last 25 years the Buckeyes have finished the regular season:
- Undefeated 6 times, 24%
- 1 loss 8 times, 32% (cumulative 14, 56%)
- 2 losses 6 times, 24% (cumulative 20, 80%)
- 3 losses once, 4% (cumulative 21, 84%)
- 4 losses twice, 8% (cumulative 23, 92%)
- 6 losses twice, 8% (cumulative 25, 100%)
Just based on the 25 years of history they've finished better than 10-2 well over 1/2 the time.
On the other hand, when you get to numbers north of 10, there is VERY little margin for error. If you pick the over you can only afford one loss.
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I don't see an obvious loss here.
(https://i.imgur.com/t2lvKkf.png)
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It seems like every single year Iowa is predicted to have 7.5 wins but lately they always seem to win 2 to 3 wins more than they should,. Usually by winning a lot of close, low-scoring games, even when the other team dominates the stats. It will be interesting if that trend continues in 2024 or will IOWA'S luck finally run out.
NW is another team that can sometimes win more games than it should, but only every other year, not every year. Will this be a good year or bad year for NW?
The opposite trend recently seems to be Nebraska. Always losing more games than they should. Team seems to be snake bit, just can't pull it out, always losing close games in the 4Q. Will 2024 be the year they finally turn it around?
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I sure as hell hope so
Rhule seems to be too good of a guy to have that luck
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IMO Ohio State's toughest game is at Oregon on Oct. 12th. Ohio State is breaking in a new QB and offense, kind of, while Oregon is not. Also, Autzen Stadium can be a tough place to play, so I would guess the Buckeyes have a <50% chance of winning there at this time.
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Someone noted that taking "above" with 10.5 means only one loss of course. That heppens, but is kind of rare for any single team in a given year, even a very good one. I'd probably take over with Ohio State while expecting to lose at least half the time.
Then there is the vig.
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By Sports Illustrated...
1. Ohio State, 10.5
1. Oregon, 10.5
3. Penn State, 10
4. Michigan, 9
5. USC, 8.5
6. Iowa, 7.5
6. Nebraska, 7.5
8. Washington, 7
9. Maryland, 6.5
9. Wisconsin, 6.5
11. Rutgers, 6
12. Illinois, 5.5
12. Indiana, 5.5
12. UCLA, 5.5
15. Michigan State, 5
16. Minnesota, 5
17. Northwestern, 4.5
18. Purdue, 4
https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/big-ten-football-win-total-predictions-for-2024-01hxsh9jbe0f (https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/big-ten-football-win-total-predictions-for-2024-01hxsh9jbe0f)
By USA Today sports journalists:
- 1. Ohio State (8 first place votes)
- 2. Oregon (5 first place votes)
- 3. (tie) Michigan
- 3. (tie) Penn State
- 5. USC
- 6. Iowa
- 7. Wisconsin
- 8. Nebraska
- 9. Washington
- 10. Rutgers
- 11. Maryland
- 12. Michigan State
- 13. Minnesota
- 14. UCLA
- 15. Illinois
- 16. Indiana
- 17. Northwestern
- 18. Purdue
Iowa has a favorable conference schedule, and thusly could finish higher: Ohio State (1), Wisconsin (7), Nebraska (8), Washington (9), Maryland (11), Michigan State (12), Minnesota (13), UCLA (14), Northwestern (17).
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I don't see an obvious loss here.
[img width=274.571 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/t2lvKkf.png[/img]
@Oregon - The Ducks will be favored in this game. On Paper the two most talented teams in the conference, time change and huge home field advantage tips the scales in Oregon's favor.
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Ohio State @ Oregon: Oct 12 Betting Odds At FanDuel Sportsbook (https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/football/ncaa-football-games/ohio-state-@-oregon-32927865)
Oregon is a 1.5 point favorite, which is basically breakeven.
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It's OSU.
They never have an "obvious" loss on their schedule. Ever.
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It's OSU.
They never have an "obvious" loss on their schedule. Ever.
I get where you are coming from and obviously Ohio State hasn't lost much in the last 25+ years but
Even at that, Ohio State "only" has six undefeated regular seasons in the last 25 years so they DO lose.
It is hard to pick the over on 10.5 losses because that only allows one loss and:
- Oregon is on the road and tOSU is currently an underdog.
- Penn State is on the road
- The Buckeyes haven't beaten Michigan since before COVID.
- The team also has to play the other nine games and even though they'll likely be substantially favored in all nine, upsets do happen.
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Ohio State @ Oregon: Oct 12 Betting Odds At FanDuel Sportsbook (https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/football/ncaa-football-games/ohio-state-@-oregon-32927865)
Oregon is a 1.5 point favorite, which is basically breakeven.
Although if you go with the conventional wisdom that HFA is worth 3 points, this is essentially the oddsmakers saying they believe OSU is the superior team but projected to lose simply because it's a road game.
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Although if you go with the conventional wisdom that HFA is worth 3 points, this is essentially the oddsmakers saying they believe OSU is the superior team but projected to lose simply because it's a road game.
Based on 3 points for HFA:
- tOSU -4.5 in Columbus
- tOSU -1.5 if they met on a neutral field
- Oregon -1.5 in Eugene
Yeah, the odds makers favor Ohio State, but BARELY.
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Big Ten media poll:
- 1. Ohio State (8 first place votes)
- 2. Oregon (5 first place votes)
- 3. (tie) Michigan
- 3. (tie) Penn State
- 5. USC
- 6. Iowa
- 7. Wisconsin
- 8. Nebraska
- 9. Washington
- 10. Rutgers
- 11. Maryland
- 12. Michigan State
- 13. Minnesota
- 14. UCLA
- 15. Illinois
- 16. Indiana
- 17. Northwestern
- 18. Purdue
https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/football/2024/07/22/iowa-football-ranking-big-ten-preseason-poll-2024-hawkeyes-all-conference-usa-today-network/74468754007/ (https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/football/2024/07/22/iowa-football-ranking-big-ten-preseason-poll-2024-hawkeyes-all-conference-usa-today-network/74468754007/)
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I'm somewhat surprised that Penn State hasn't been hyped more as a potential B1G champion. They're returning Drew Allar at QB for his third year as a starter and lots of other talent as well. Maybe its the beat down by Ole Miss?
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Penn St. also has a decent schedule
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(https://i.imgur.com/iuSnMSR.png)
Ohio St., Oregon, Penn St., Michigan, Iowa????
with a little luck,...... can Rutgers go 7-2?
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With that schedule, very possible.
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This is a problem, I think, with huge conferences.
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apparently, the Big Ten has NOT decided on tie breaking procedure
suppose Rutgers gets into a tie breaker for the chance to play in the champ game
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(https://i.imgur.com/cagVcfI.png)
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Wow, that's.... not many.
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I'm less concerned about the quality of the pastries each team has in a schedule than how many. You might not play an FCS school, great, while also playing 3 really poor quality FBS schools.
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I'm less concerned about the quality of the pastries each team has in a schedule than how many. You might not play an FCS school, great, while also playing 3 really poor quality FBS schools.
I'm concerned about both.
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I don't really care if UGA plays FCS or a really bad FBS team, they are the same, to me. I'd prefer they not play FCS schools, I suppose, but it's not a big deal to me. Maybe this is because they do. I would have to look up who they play this season. The FCS schools move "up" so often I quit keeping track.
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They're not the same to me.
I'd be extremely disappointed in my athletic department if they scheduled an FCS school. The only time it's happened at Texas in the modern era was for one season, about 20 years ago, when the NCAA increased the regular season from 11 to 12 teams with little notice. Texas couldn't find an available FBS team to fill the schedule so added an FCS instead.
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Shoulda played Wisconsin.
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Y'all were already booked.
(maybe :) )
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There were two things. UT didn't want to return a trip to Madison and UT already had OSU on the schedule that year.
UW ended up with Western Illinois.
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They're not the same to me.
I'd be extremely disappointed in my athletic department if they scheduled an FCS school. The only time it's happened at Texas in the modern era was for one season, about 20 years ago, when the NCAA increased the regular season from 11 to 12 teams with little notice. Texas couldn't find an available FBS team to fill the schedule so added an FCS instead.
I was happy when the B1G said teams could no longer schedule FCS. I was disappointed when they walked that back after they created the 9-game conference schedule and said you could schedule FCS in years that you only had 4 conference home games.
I can't seem to find whether any of this changed for 2024. I saw speculation last spring that the B1G was going to drop its mandate that you play at least one power conference teem OOC, which I would also be against. But I can't tell if that actually happened or not.
IMHO a P4 team should have no FCS and at least one P4 OOC game per year.
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My idea would be everyone has to play ten FBS level teams out of 12. You can then pick your pastry du jour.
I looked, UGA plays Tenn Tech and UMass this season. I gather the former is FCS. UMass if effectively the same for me.
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I don't mind Youngstown being in on the Ohio cupcake rotation, but nothing beyond that should be considered.
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it will be interesting to see if the Horns adapt to the SEC way of scheduling
I hope not
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Big Ten Football Win Totals
Illinois Win Total
Illinois Preview
BetMGM: 5.5
Caesars: 5.5
FanDuel: 5.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 6
Consensus Win Total: 5.625
Illinois Will Win: 5
Indiana Win Total
Indiana Preview
BetMGM: 5.5
Caesars: 5.5
FanDuel: 5.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 5.5
Consensus Win Total: 5.5
Indiana Will Win: 6
Iowa Win Total
Iowa Preview
BetMGM: 8
Caesars: 8
FanDuel: 8.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 8.5
Consensus Win Total: 8.25
Iowa Will Win: 7
Maryland Win Total
Maryland Preview
BetMGM: 6.5
Caesars: 6.5
FanDuel: 6.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 7.5
Consensus Win Total: 6.75
Maryland Will Win: 6
Michigan Win Total
Michigan Preview
BetMGM: 9
Caesars: 9
FanDuel: 8.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 9
Consensus Win Total: 8.875
Michigan Will Win: 10
Michigan State Win Total
Michigan State Preview
BetMGM: 5
Caesars: 5
FanDuel: 4.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 7
Consensus Win Total: 5.375
Michigan State Will Win: 6
Minnesota Win Total
Minnesota Preview
BetMGM: 5.5
Caesars: 5.5
FanDuel: 5.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 6.5
Consensus Win Total: 5.75
Minnesota Will Win: 6
Nebraska Win Total
Nebraska Preview
BetMGM: 7.5
Caesars: 7.5
FanDuel: 7.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 7
Consensus Win Total: 7.375
Nebraska Will Win: 7
Northwestern Win Total
Northwestern Preview
BetMGM: 5
Caesars: 4.5
FanDuel: 4.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 6
Consensus Win Total: 5
Northwestern Will Win: 5
Ohio State Win Total
Ohio State Preview
BetMGM: 10.5
Caesars: 10.5
FanDuel: 10.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 10.5
Consensus Win Total: 10.5
Ohio State Will Win: 12
Oregon Win Total
Oregon Preview
BetMGM: 10.5
Caesars: 10.5
FanDuel: 10.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 10
Consensus Win Total: 10.375
Oregon Will Win: 9
Penn State Win Total
Penn State Preview
BetMGM: 10
Caesars: 9.5
FanDuel: 9.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 10
Consensus Win Total: 9.75
Penn State Will Win: 10
Purdue Win Total
Purdue Preview
BetMGM: 4.5
Caesars: 4.5
FanDuel: 4.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 5
Consensus Win Total: 4.625
Purdue Will Win: 2
Rutgers Win Total
Rutgers Preview
BetMGM: 6.5
Caesars: 6.5
FanDuel: 6.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 6.5
Consensus Win Total: 6.5
Rutgers Will Win: 5
UCLA Win Total
UCLA Preview
BetMGM: 4.5
Caesars: 5
FanDuel: 4.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 6
Consensus Win Total: 5
UCLA Will Win: 5
USC Win Total
USC Preview
BetMGM: 7.5
Caesars: 7.5
FanDuel: 7.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 8.5
Consensus Win Total: 7.75
USC Will Win: 9
Washington Win Total
Washington Preview
BetMGM: 6.5
Caesars: 6.5
FanDuel: 6.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 8
Consensus Win Total: 6.875
Washington Will Win: 8
Wisconsin Win Total
Wisconsin Preview
BetMGM: 6.5
Caesars: 7
FanDuel: 6.5
CFN (Set Win Total At): 7
Consensus Win Total: 6.75
Wisconsin Will Win: 7
https://collegefootballnews.com/college-football/2024-big-ten-football-win-totals-predictions-odds-consensus-picks (https://collegefootballnews.com/college-football/2024-big-ten-football-win-totals-predictions-odds-consensus-picks)
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it will be interesting to see if the Horns adapt to the SEC way of scheduling
I hope not
I hope not as well. I'd be surprised if that happened.
Similarly, it'll be interesting to see if Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, USC, and UCLA, adapt to the way the other 13 teams in the B1G are scheduling.
I hope not.
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Two schools of thought at least on scheduling. One is to schedule tough games to get ready for conference play and the other is to schedule cup cakes to effectively extend the summer camp, avoid a loss, and get and your younger players more experience. Looking at Alabama over the years and Michigan's schedule last year one could argue that cup cakes are the way to go.
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Two schools of thought at least on scheduling. One is to schedule tough games to get ready for conference play and the other is to schedule cup cakes to effectively extend the summer camp, avoid a loss, and get and your younger players more experience. Looking at Alabama over the years and Michigan's schedule last year one could argue that cup cakes are the way to go.
The 12-team playoff will change everything, but last year, the only reason Texas got into the 4-team playoff is because they scheduled, and beat, Alabama. If that had been, say, USC or even Ohio State, Texas is on the outside looking in and either Georgia or Florida State take that spot.
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(https://i.imgur.com/T21ZW4r.png)
I think this is going to be a tough year for Bert, I think. Those last 3 games could go either way, but I'm thinking they lose them all. The OOC against Kansas will tell a big story on how this season will go.
E Illinois: W
Kansas: L
CMU: W
@ UNL: L
@ PSU: L
Purdue: W
UM: L
@ UO: L
MN: W
MSU: L
@ RU: L
* NU: L
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This is a problem, I think, with huge conferences.
This is true in BB as well. The more games that are not played the more potential for variance in SoS that is just an undeniable mathematical reality.
Back in 1992 the Big Ten had 10 members and played eight games so each team missed only one. Even if my team missed the best team in the league and your team missed the worst team in the league that was only a one game difference.
Now we have 18 and we are playing nine games so each team misses six. Two B1G teams could theoretically have as little commonality as either:
- A H2H and two common opponents, or
- No H2H and three common opponents.
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Can someone do Indiana? I don't know much about them for this year.
Maybe @LetsGoPeay (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=7) can weigh in. Or maybe @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) can do it.
(https://i.imgur.com/w9dd2q7.png)
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all I know is that I hope the Huskers can pull out a road win there
wins on the road in the B1G have been a BIG problem for the Skers
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Can someone do Indiana? I don't know much about them for this year.
Maybe @LetsGoPeay (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=7) can weigh in. Or maybe @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) can do it.
(https://i.imgur.com/w9dd2q7.png)
I'm going to try to balance the excitement for a new coaching staff with my typical Hoosier Football pessimism. Realistically, this is a 3-5 win team. I think the offensive portal additions are strong. The O-line should be pretty good. The defensive side of the ball has problems. There is no depth on the D-line and DB's are inexperienced and thin. With that in mind, here are my game-by-game picks.
FIU - W - Will probably give up points and it may be closer than comfortable with it being the first game of the season with a new coaching staff.
WIU - W - Should be a 35-7 type of game
@UCLA - L - It could be a toss-up but once again, with so little known about the new program, I'm going to play it safe and call it an L
Charlotte - W - They were 3-9 last year. It's a home game so it will probably be similar to the FIU game.
As for the rest of the B1G games, I feel like IU can be competitive against Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Purdue, possibly even against Nebraska. But realistically, I think they may squeak out one or two wins from that bunch and finish 4-8 or 5-7.
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Can someone do Indiana? I don't know much about them for this year.
Maybe @LetsGoPeay (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=7) can weigh in. Or maybe @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) can do it.
I stopped caring about performance a few years back
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Can someone do Indiana? I don't know much about them for this year.
They're going to lose a lot of games.
They'll beat Western Illinois. They should beat FIU and Charlotte. Probably toss-ups with Northwestern and Purdue. Lose everything else.
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They're going to lose a lot of games.
They'll beat Western Illinois. They should beat FIU and Charlotte. Probably toss-ups with Northwestern and Purdue. Lose everything else.
Their coach gives me fake slap the floor hustle. It is going to go one of two ways. Indiana football is heavily weighted in one of them.