CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on May 06, 2024, 10:29:07 AM
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The Buckeyes are near the top of just about everybody's early preseason rankings so I *SHOULD* excited but to be honest, I'm really not. Being top-2 or top-5 preseason was a big deal when there was no playoff, a 2-team playoff (BCS), or a 4-team playoff but with 12 teams making it, preseason rankings are more-or-less irrelevant.
Also, in past seasons I'd have spent time obsessing over potential landmines such as:
- vs Iowa is a week before a HUMONGOUS showdown with Oregon, could the Hawkeyes catch tOSU in a "trap game"?
- vs Nebraska is sandwiched between showdowns in Eugene and State College, could the Cornhuskers catch tOSU in a Hangover/trap game?
- vs Purdue is the week after the visit to Penn State and Purdue is historically REALLY good at beating tOSU teams that they shouldn't, could this be a trap game?
Now that we have a 12-team playoff those things don't really matter anymore. Helmets (tOSU is) with high preseason rankings (tOSU will be) are basically guaranteed of a spot with a record of 10-2 or better.
That brings me to the subject of this poll:
I foresee that the debate now will focus on the relative ranking of 3-loss non-Champions because all the Champions and teams with two or less losses will get in and the last few spots will be allocated among 9-3ish teams.
Ohio State's 2024 schedule presents an interesting view of this. Assuming that the preseason prognostications are correct, the Buckeyes will play three VERY highly ranked teams including road games at #3 and #8. Those, and a home game against #13 are three REALLY tough games. After that, however, none of the other nine teams on tOSU's schedule are likely to be ranked pre-season.
So what is better?
- Successfully avoiding upsets against the unranked opponents but losing to all three ranked opponents, or
- Beating all three highly ranked opponents and thus collecting three quality wins but also getting upset three times by unranked opponents, or
- Somewhere in between?
What say you?
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8-1 vs unranked, 1-2 vs top-13
the committee has shown they will treat a single loss vs an unranked foe as a fluke and it doesn't damage the resume as badly
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7-2 with one "fluke" loss is probably better I suspect.
UGA has a similar road. They could well finish 10-2 and have a very solid team.
Same with OSU.
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As for myself, I chose option #2.
My thoughts:
Option #2, 8-1 vs unranked, 1-2 vs top-13:
I picked this because I'm willing to assume that the loss to an unranked team is a fluke and this team has shown an ability to beat playoff caliber teams.
Option #3, 7-2 vs unranked, 2-1 vs top-13:
The second loss to an unranked team is troubling but it is offset by a second quality win.
Option #1, 9-0 vs unranked, 0-3 vs top-13:
It is great for them that this team beat the teams they *should* beat but they've had three chances against playoff caliber teams and they went 0-fer. I see this as a machine-like predictable team with a very high floor but a low ceiling.
Option #4, 6-3 vs unranked, 3-0 vs top-13:
The three quality wins are fantastic but three losses to unranked teams is more than a fluke, it is a pattern. Something is wrong with this team that causes them to just suck on their bad days. This team obviously has a high ceiling but, as I see it, their floor is very low.
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Folks usually overlook a fluke loss if balanced out with some solid wins.
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in the end, 3 losses are 3 losses
probably gonna finished ranked above nearly all 4 loss teams and below most 2 loss teams
doesn't matter much
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in the end, 3 losses are 3 losses
probably gonna finished ranked above nearly all 4 loss teams and below most 2 loss teams
doesn't matter much
It matters SOME of course. I think the 7-2 team would get ranked above a lot of 8-1 teams that had no good wins and the one loss.
I presume we are omitting the G5 9-0 teams.
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yup, matters a bit more for 1 and 2 loss teams
could make the 12-team playoff
not much for a 3-loss team
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Yeah, I suspect 9-3 won't make a 12 team slate, but rarely, unless they are a conference champion.
There should be enough 10-2s around. One G5 will be in it, five more conference champions, so you really have six slots available.
It's a bit odd, to me, that we easily could have a 11-2 or even 10-3 conference champ make it by beating a 12-1 CG loser who would be slotted fifth.
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in the end, 3 losses are 3 losses
probably gonna finished ranked above nearly all 4 loss teams and below most 2 loss teams
I agree
doesn't matter much
I'm guessing that the cut line is going to fall among 9-3ish teams so I think it will matter because some will make the playoffs and some will not.
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It's a bit odd, to me, that we easily could have a 11-2 or even 10-3 conference champ make it by beating a 12-1 CG loser who would be slotted fifth.
I get why you say it is odd but without that feature the CG's would likely be irrelevant.
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Yeah, it's a bit odd to me. The AP rankings won't line up with the playoff teams often as not, which is OK I guess.
Most conferences have dropped divisions which makes it very unlikely some 8-4 team can slide into the CG.
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9-3 OSU beating 12-0 Michigan in a rematch in the Big Ten champ game will cause havoc
I'm all for it
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Usually, there would be a 10-2 team somewhere in a conference. We will eventually have a "Mayhem Year" though, if it lasts long enough.
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a 9-3 OSU could have 2 non-con loses with a lone conference loss to 12-0 Michigan
BOOM!
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I picked the 8-1, 1-2 team. There's a difference between showing you can do something vs showing that you can't. And losing to worse teams (unranked) isn't a plus.....it's worse.
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Option 3 for me.
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a 9-3 OSU could have 2 non-con loses with a lone conference loss to 12-0 Michigan
This scenario of course is quite possible, but I THINK in normal seasons some other team like say Penn State would make the CG. I don't know the criteria they would use here is PSU was 11-1, maybe head to head? They would have defeated Ohio State ostensibly, but then OSU would have two conference losses. Maybe they don't play every year.
Anyway, weird stuff will happen eventually.
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they don't play every year
the Big Ten messed up the schedule, again
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We'll all be fascinated when the inevitable happens, some team loses 2 nonconference games and one more but ends up in the CG and wins in an upset. They'd be 10-3, and in the top four teams in the playoff.
UGA could do it with their future nonconference schedules although they lost Texas and OU as noncon opponents. They play Clemson and Ohio State still in one year, and maybe somehow Tech could become relevant again.
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We'll all be fascinated when the inevitable happens, some team loses 2 nonconference games and one more but ends up in the CG and wins in an upset. They'd be 10-3, and in the top four teams in the playoff.
and then win a couple games in the playoff!
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Yup, if this lasts long enough, really unusual things will happen, but PROBABLY "they" will change it over and over again in some search for "perfection".
In 2030, UGA plays Clemson, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech OOC. Imagine they lose all three and also one in conference, but are 7-1 in conference play and make the CG where they then win, and get a bye in the playoff, at 9-4. Then they win out and are "national champions" with four losses. Unlikely, but possible.
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Yup, if this lasts long enough, really unusual things will happen, but PROBABLY "they" will change it over and over again in some search for "perfection".
In 2030, UGA plays Clemson, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech OOC. Imagine they lose all three and also one in conference, but are 7-1 in conference play and make the CG where they then win, and get a bye in the playoff, at 9-4. Then they win out and are "national champions" with four losses. Unlikely, but possible.
I'll bet that this will not happen.
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Sure, we've all seen schedules change, they already dropped Texas and OU of course.
It's also possible the games get played as is.
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Yup, if this lasts long enough, really unusual things will happen, but PROBABLY "they" will change it over and over again in some search for "perfection".
In 2030, UGA plays Clemson, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech OOC. Imagine they lose all three and also one in conference, but are 7-1 in conference play and make the CG where they then win, and get a bye in the playoff, at 9-4. Then they win out and are "national champions" with four losses. Unlikely, but possible.
It is funny, when I read your listing of Georgia's OOC for 2030 my initial thought is "Wow, those are going to be HUGE games" and then I realize that with the new format . . . Those will not be huge games.
In theory UGA, Clemson, and Ohio State could all be top-5 but even if they are, with 12 spots and guarantees for league champions those games don't matter much. If Georgia loses to both tOSU and Clemson they would still control their own destiny to a first round bye so those games have effectively been relegated to tune-ups for the league games. The tune-up reference is apt because, if you think about it, UGA would be much better off losing to tOSU and Clemson than say Auburn and Florida. 10-2 with losses to tOSU and Clemson means a berth in the SECCG where they play for a first round bye. 10-2 with losses to Auburn and Florida likely means sitting out the SECCG and having to play an extra playoff game.
The scale of this change cannot be overstated. Last year's Texas/Bama game had a humongous impact on the NC race. There can be little doubt that Texas would have been left out in favor of undefeated FSU if they had gone 12-1 with an OOC win over UAB instead of SEC Champion Bama but with that win over SEC Champion Bama basically locked them in one spot ahead of Bama so the committee was stuck.
A great example of a season in which early OOC games had a HUMONGOUS impact was 2005:
- On September 10 #2 Texas beat #4 Ohio State in Columbus 25-22
- On October 15 #1 USC beat #9 Notre Dame in South Bend 34-31
Both games were EXTREMELY close. Ohio State had a six point lead (22-16) and got inside the Texas 30 Yard line with just over five minutes to go. They ended up missing a 50 yard FG that would have made it a two possession game and likely sealed it for the Buckeyes. USC beat Notre Dame on the infamous "Bush Push".
The pre-bowl rankings that year were:
- 12-0 USC (best wins were the aforementioned win over #5 Notre Dame and a blowout of #6 Oregon in Eugene)
- 12-0 Texas (best wins were the aforementioned win over #4 Ohio State and a blowout of #18 TxTech)
- 10-1 Penn State (lost to a mediocre (7-5) Michigan, best wins were at home over #4 tOSU and #21 Wisconsin)
- 9-2 Ohio State (losses were the aforementioned losses to #2 Tx and #3 PSU)
- 9-2 Notre Dame (losses were the aforementioned loss to #1 USC and at home to a sub-.500 MSU)
Wins by either Ohio State (vsTx) or Notre Dame (vsUSC) or both would have created a real mess:
Ohio State beats Texas:
USC is obviously #1 at 12-0 but PSU, Texas, and tOSU each have one loss. PSU has H2H over tOSU. tOSU has H2H over Tx. PSU probably gets it based on H2H but that ignores the fact that they have a MUCH worse loss.
Notre Dame beats USC:
Texas is obviously #1 at 12-0 but USC, Notre Dame, and Penn State each have one loss. ND has H2H over USC and PSU has a quality win over tOSU but those two teams also have bad losses to teams from Michigan while USC's loss is close and on the road to a very good ND.
Ohio State beats Texas AND Notre Dame beats USC:
Now we have a real mess. USC, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, and Notre Dame each finish with one loss. Technically Oregon finished with one loss as well but their loss was by about 1,000 points at home to USC so they are not a serious contender.
Ohio State (vsTx), Penn State (vstOSU), and Notre Dame (vsUSC) each have a H2H win in the group while Texas (@tOSU), Ohio State (@PSU), and USC (@ND) each have a H2H loss within the group. Note, however, that each of those games was close and won by the home team.
Those games mattered because the format was limited. In the new format:
- USC (Pac Champ), Texas (B12 Champ), PSU (B1G Champ), and Georgia (SEC Champ) would get the byes. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Auburn would host in the first round.
- The tOSU/Tx game was irrelevant.
- The USC/Notre Dame game was irrelevant.
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Yes, exactly so. The new scheme basically devalues nonconference games and over values winning your conference (I think).
We'll see some 12-1 and 11-1 teams slotted 5-12 in the future.
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Yeah, I suspect 9-3 won't make a 12 team slate, but rarely, unless they are a conference champion.
There should be enough 10-2s around. One G5 will be in it, five more conference champions, so you really have six slots available.
It's a bit odd, to me, that we easily could have a 11-2 or even 10-3 conference champ make it by beating a 12-1 CG loser who would be slotted fifth.
My guess is that the cut-line will usually be somewhere among the 3-loss teams although a 9-4 team that lost their CG to a top-4 opponent might get in over a 9-3 team that missed their CG.
2023 pre-bowl AP Poll:
- 10-2 Mizzou was #9
- 10-2 Penn State was #10
- 10-2 Ole Miss was #11
- 10-2 Oklahoma was #12
- 9-3 LSU was #13
With auto-bids for five league champs the cut line would be somewhere in there.
2022 pre-bowl AP Poll:
- 10-2 Penn State was #9
- 11-2 Clemson was #10 but ACC Champ
- 10-3 Kansas State was #11 but B12 Champ
- 10-2 Washington was #12
- 9-3 Florida State was #13
2021 pre-bowl AP Poll:
- 11-2 Baylor was #9 but B12 Champ
- 10-3 Utah was #10 but P12 Champ
- 10-2 Michigan State was #11
- 10-2 BYU was #12
- 11-2 Pitt was #13 but ACC Champ
2020:
- 11-0 Coastal Carolina was #9
- 8-3 Florida was #10 (lost SECCG to #1 Bama)
- 7-2 Georgia was #11
- 8-3 Iowa State was #12
- 10-1 BYU was #13
Based on that history it looks like 3-loss teams will not make it often without being league champions as you suggest but I'm not so sure because conference consolidation will make schedules tougher, I think.
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NFL light.
Instead of being football, but in a very different way, just mimic the NFL and be the 2nd-best product.
Sigh.
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Yup, if this lasts long enough, really unusual things will happen, but PROBABLY "they" will change it over and over again in some search for "perfection".
In 2030, UGA plays Clemson, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech OOC. Imagine they lose all three and also one in conference, but are 7-1 in conference play and make the CG where they then win, and get a bye in the playoff, at 9-4. Then they win out and are "national champions" with four losses. Unlikely, but possible.
Inevitable.
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I suspect the System wll change before it happens.
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Big Ten Coaches Talk Anonymously About Conference Foes for 2024
Illinois
“Bret [Bielema] might not be on the hot seat, but this is definitely a prove-it season for him. It feels like they lost their good momentum with their staff and their roster about two seasons back."
"Bret built the program back up by finding and developing a lot of local and regional guys instead of swinging and missing in places like Texas and Florida. They’ve lost some key in-state battles recently that hurt them."
"The [Donovan] Leary kid could push [Luke] Altmyer; that could be a really interesting quarterback battle to watch."
"This isn’t a bad roster at all, but if they have another losing season, the momentum will be gone.”
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Indiana
“There’s a lot of talk about the program for the first time since any of us can remember."
"Cig [Curt Cignetti] is a really good hire; it shows that the school wants to be competitive and respectable in football. They’re taking football seriously in NIL, too."
"They brought in a few studs from James Madison, and they’ve worked the portal well."
"The competition level in this league is still above them, but they should look more talented, especially on offense. The MAC quarterback [Kurtis Rourke] is pretty solid."
"If you’re setting reasonable Year 1 expectations, I’d look for them to build an offensive identity to help recruiting.”
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Maryland
“The biggest need is finding a replacement for Taulia [Tagovailoa], and it doesn’t look like they had one guy really step up and do that in the spring."
"They have a lot of talented individual pieces on both sides of the ball because Mike [Locksley] is an elite recruiter, but the knock on the program is that they’re missing something to make the whole greater than the sum of the parts."
"I wouldn’t bet against that staff and their experience when it comes to personnel, though. I don’t think Maryland is going to top the nation in NIL, but that entire staff knows how to recruit, even if they’re losing a third of the roster every year.”
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Minnesota
“They’re never dull, that’s for sure."
"I think [head coach] P.J. [Fleck] chased UCLA and some other jobs pretty hard to get out of there, and it didn’t happen for him."
"The transfer quarterback from FCS [Max Brosmer] could be a really exciting player in that offensive system. He’s already a captain for them, so they really believe he can be a game-changer for their offense."
"The new defensive coordinator [Corey Hetherman] is known for a big attacking scheme from when he was an FCS coordinator [at James Madison]. It will be interesting to see how that translates to this league. Minnesota doesn’t have the kind of personnel that can allow you to blitz like that.”
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Penn State
“They’ve been the definition of the best-of-the-good programs for a while now. They’re never great. They would’ve made a 12-team playoff last year, but they were so noticeably behind Ohio State and Michigan that it didn’t really matter. The expectation is to compete with those schools, and they’ve almost always trailed them under James Franklin.
"The season is on [QB Drew] Allar and how he develops with another new OC [Andy Kotelnicki]."
"They haven’t scared elite programs with their offensive skill position guys since the Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley days. You can talk about a million other things, but that’s the real difference between them and the conference leaders. OSU and Michigan scare you with their talent. They have to hit that next level as an offense.”
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Purdue
“Watch these guys for a defensive breakout. They didn’t fully understand the system Ryan [Walters] installed in Year 1. They’ve brought in some really talented transfers, and a lot of their key guys are back. This is going to be the identity of their team."
"The freshman safety from last year [Dillon Thieneman] who was All-American, he’s their kind of guy. That’s their model."
"Hudson [Card] is a solid and experienced quarterback, and he’s got another year under his belt in [offensive coordinator Graham] Harrell’s system."
"They need to develop the O-line and receivers better, but expect them to improve overall this season.”
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Rutgers
“They turned the corner last season, and for the first time since [Greg] Schiano came back, they’re going to have the depth you need to be competitive in the league."
"They finished in a spot where they were obviously less talented than the teams they lost to, and they were as good as or better than the rosters they beat. The next phase is elevating in recruiting and pulling that bigger conference win."
"They have a really nice stable of running backs and some decent guys have developed at receiver."
"I would say they’re on track to move up a little bit and maybe catch someone by surprise, but they’re still building and still significantly behind the elite of the league.”