CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on January 02, 2024, 04:57:09 PM
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What will it be?
What should it be?
Here is my guess of what it WILL be not necessarily what I think it SHOULD be:
- 14-0 Washington/Michigan winner
- 13-1 Michigan/Washington loser
- 12-2 Texas, no change because they beat
- 12-2 Bama, up one because they beat
- 13-1 Georgia, up one because they beat
- 13-1 Florida State, down two
- 12-2 Oregon, up one passing tOSU
- 11-2 Mizzou, up one passing tOSU
- 11-2 Ole Miss, up two passing tOSU and PSU
- 11-2 Ohio State, down three
- 10-3 LSU, up two passing PSU and Oklahoma
- 10-3 Arizona, up two passing PSU and Oklahoma
- 10-3 Notre Dame, up two passing PSU and Oklahoma
- 10-3 Penn State, down four
- 10-3 Oklahoma, down three
- 9-4 Tennessee, up nine passing Louisville, SMU, Liberty, NCST, Iowa, OrSU, OkSU, Tulane, and James Madison
- 9-4 Oklahoma State, up five passing Louisville, SMU, Liberty, NCST, Iowa, and OrSU but passed by Tennessee
After that it gets really murky. From #16 Louisville through the end of the poll the only bowl winners were #22 OkSU over unranked aTm and #25 TN over #20 Iowa. Of the eight teams ranked between #16 and #25 to lose, many of the losses were blowouts or to unranked teams or both so I would guess that most of those teams will NOT end up ranked at all. Somebody has to fill those last eight spots. Clemson will get in, not sure who all else.
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I'd guess the Dawgs move up more, probably to #4, maybe 3, though it doesn't matter I think.
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yup, Georgia to #3
because, 1 loss is better than 2
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Woohoo! Best 3-loss team in the country!
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I'd guess the Dawgs move up more, probably to #4, maybe 3, though it doesn't matter I think.
I think that 3-6 is the most controversial part. UGA and FSU have better records (13-1 vs 12-2) but Texas beat Bama beat Georgia beat FSU so I assumed that they'd stick with H2H.
I really can't see UGA at #4 because I think they'll either be ahead of or behind both Texas and Bama.
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I think that 3-6 is the most controversial part. UGA and FSU have better records (13-1 vs 12-2) but Texas beat Bama beat Georgia beat FSU so I assumed that they'd stick with H2H.
I really can't see UGA at #4 because I think they'll either be ahead of or behind both Texas and Bama.
Agree. They'll either put them ahead of both because of the record, or behind both because of H2H.
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AP voters .... don't always make much sense, to me. We go back to what a poll really means to us individually.
Often, it's just fewest losses. I don't think it matters much, if any, maybe some bragging rights.
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Agree. They'll either put them ahead of both because of the record, or behind both because of H2H.
ahead because of record and ahead because they won the last 2 championships and because Bama and Texas have more recent losses.
I know, it's lazy to just count losses and it's stupid because this season has nothing to do with last season.
But, that's what they've done for decades
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We routinely have teams ranked above teams that defeated them of course. I wonder how far FSU drops in the AP, and where I'd put them. I'll guess around 8.
UGA dropped from 1 to 6 with a first loss in ages.
Anyway, it's mildly amusing.
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What will it be?
What should it be?
Here is my guess of what it WILL be not necessarily what I think it SHOULD be:
- 14-0 Washington/Michigan winner
- 13-1 Michigan/Washington loser
- 12-2 Texas, no change because they beat
- 12-2 Bama, up one because they beat
- 13-1 Georgia, up one because they beat
- 13-1 Florida State, down two
- 12-2 Oregon, up one passing tOSU
- 11-2 Mizzou, up one passing tOSU
- 11-2 Ole Miss, up two passing tOSU and PSU
- 11-2 Ohio State, down three
- 10-3 LSU, up two passing PSU and Oklahoma
- 10-3 Arizona, up two passing PSU and Oklahoma
- 10-3 Notre Dame, up two passing PSU and Oklahoma
- 10-3 Penn State, down four
- 10-3 Oklahoma, down three
- 9-4 Tennessee, up nine passing Louisville, SMU, Liberty, NCST, Iowa, OrSU, OkSU, Tulane, and James Madison
- 9-4 Oklahoma State, up five passing Louisville, SMU, Liberty, NCST, Iowa, and OrSU but passed by Tennessee
After that it gets really murky. From #16 Louisville through the end of the poll the only bowl winners were #22 OkSU over unranked aTm and #25 TN over #20 Iowa. Of the eight teams ranked between #16 and #25 to lose, many of the losses were blowouts or to unranked teams or both so I would guess that most of those teams will NOT end up ranked at all. Somebody has to fill those last eight spots. Clemson will get in, not sure who all else.
I’ve actually been monitoring this because I hope WVU can slide in there in the final poll. I think JMU, Tulane, and Oregon St will fall out and be replaced by Clemson, K St, and Kansas. I’m interested to see what they do with Liberty and SMU. Both were in the late teens but I wonder if both could fall out completely. Iowa is also an interesting case. A 10 win P5 team is usually a shoe in to be ranked. But they were already at 20 and got killed by Tennessee. Their last two games were just ugly.
Either way, I’m hoping at least one more team besides the 3 I mentioned fall out. WVU hasn’t been ranked in even a single AP poll since Neal Brown took over. It would be a nice feather in his cap to not only get ranked, but finish ranked.
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What will it be?
What should it be?
Here is my guess of what it WILL be not necessarily what I think it SHOULD be:
- 14-0 Washington/Michigan winner
- 13-1 Michigan/Washington loser
- 12-2 Texas, no change because they beat
- 12-2 Bama, up one because they beat
- 13-1 Georgia, up one because they beat
- 13-1 Florida State, down two
- 12-2 Oregon, up one passing tOSU
- 11-2 Mizzou, up one passing tOSU
- 11-2 Ole Miss, up two passing tOSU and PSU
- 11-2 Ohio State, down three
- 10-3 LSU, up two passing PSU and Oklahoma
- 10-3 Arizona, up two passing PSU and Oklahoma
- 10-3 Notre Dame, up two passing PSU and Oklahoma
- 10-3 Penn State, down four
- 10-3 Oklahoma, down three
- 9-4 Tennessee, up nine passing Louisville, SMU, Liberty, NCST, Iowa, OrSU, OkSU, Tulane, and James Madison
- 9-4 Oklahoma State, up five passing Louisville, SMU, Liberty, NCST, Iowa, and OrSU but passed by Tennessee
After that it gets really murky. From #16 Louisville through the end of the poll the only bowl winners were #22 OkSU over unranked aTm and #25 TN over #20 Iowa. Of the eight teams ranked between #16 and #25 to lose, many of the losses were blowouts or to unranked teams or both so I would guess that most of those teams will NOT end up ranked at all. Somebody has to fill those last eight spots. Clemson will get in, not sure who all else.
Move 7 through 10 up, and drop 6 to 10.
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Polls are silly
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Watching a bunch of 18-22 year old kids play sports is silly, too.
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Watching a bunch of 18-22 year old kids play sports is silly, too.
(https://i.imgur.com/ZjQBcBM.png)
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(https://i.imgur.com/ZjQBcBM.png)
This chick gets an undue amount of attention for her skill level. She's not Insta-famous for her gym skills, though. I don't really care except that LSU gymnastics has been elite for several years now, but this girl who isn't anywhere close to the best on the team is what brings attention to the program.
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We routinely have teams ranked above teams that defeated them of course. I wonder how far FSU drops in the AP, and where I'd put them. I'll guess around 8.
UGA dropped from 1 to 6 with a first loss in ages.
Anyway, it's mildly amusing.
It's hard for me to even define what (or who, I guess) they're supposed to be ranking. Are they ranking the depleted and opted-out team that showed up in the bowl? Probably shouldn't be ranked. But then, that seems harsh considering what they accomplished for the season. So then are they supposed to rank them based on the season they had? Should be higher than 8, for sure. Or something in between? And if so, what is the exact criteria?
I don't know, and I doubt the voters know either.
FSU is an extreme example, but it applies to a lesser extent to many teams in this age of transfers and opt-outs. Should bowls factor in at all? For example, look at LSU and Wisconsin in the bowl game (that nobody attended....weirdest bowl setting ever). Wisconsin was without half their starters from the regular season. LSU was missing the most important player and the second most important player for most of the game. What exactly do you take from that which should be considered in context of "who they were for the season," which I guess indicates where to rank them?
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I always look at rankings based on what teams can do - TODAY.
#10 may even be too high for FSU.
Hell, look at my school.
The team that played LSU on Monday. Do ya think they lose to WSU, Iowa, Indiana and Northwestern, if they played today? I highly doubt it.
Would they beat OSU? Maybe the version that played Ole Miss last week. I doubt it.
I'm excited for next season.
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I always look at rankings based on what teams can do - TODAY.
#10 may even be too high for FSU.
Based on TODAY, FSU is not Top 25 material and should be unranked. Actually, they were really bad, based on the bowl.
But isn't that pretty fallacious to rank a team based on a one game sample size? We have no confidence in rankings after Week 1 for that very reason. But that's essentially what ranking teams is who have lots of transfers and opt-outs. It's a one game sample size for a team which--for all intents and purposes--is not the same team from the rest of the season, and therefore the season's games shouldn't be factored. So how can you rank that team at all if a one-game sample size is faulty, and a one-game sample size is all we have?
And this is just me, but for people like me who chirp a lot about how this is supposed to be a resume sport, it seems really wrong to rank a team based solely on TODAY. If we make the arguments for getting into the playoffs that "the games have to matter," then they have to matter for rankings by default. Except the catch-22 is the team we're trying to rank may have basically vanished into the ether of the portal and the NFL.
S'why I say the voters likely just do whatever they feel like in the moment, and that's probably about as good as they can do anyway, in some cases.
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We routinely have teams ranked above teams that defeated them of course. I wonder how far FSU drops in the AP, and where I'd put them. I'll guess around 8.
UGA dropped from 1 to 6 with a first loss in ages.
Anyway, it's mildly amusing.
Classic example is a blast from the past. 11/1/1982. 6.Nebraska, 7.Penn State, 8.Alabama. All are 7-1. Nebraska loss is to Penn State. Penn State loss is to Alabama.
https://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/seasons.cfm?appollid=550
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Based on TODAY, FSU is not Top 25 material and should be unranked. Actually, they were really bad, based on the bowl.
But isn't that pretty fallacious to rank a team based on a one game sample size? We have no confidence in rankings after Week 1 for that very reason. But that's essentially what ranking teams is who have lots of transfers and opt-outs. It's a one game sample size for a team which--for all intents and purposes--is not the same team from the rest of the season, and therefore the season's games shouldn't be factored. So how can you rank that team at all if a one-game sample size is faulty, and a one-game sample size is all we have?
And this is just me, but for people like me who chirp a lot about how this is supposed to be a resume sport, it seems really wrong to rank a team based solely on TODAY. If we make the arguments for getting into the playoffs that "the games have to matter," then they have to matter for rankings by default. Except the catch-22 is the team we're trying to rank may have basically vanished into the ether of the portal and the NFL.
S'why I say the voters likely just do whatever they feel like in the moment, and that's probably about as good as they can do anyway, in some cases.
TCU rose from #3 to #2 in 2022 Final AP Poll! ~???
https://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/seasons.cfm?seasonid=2022
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Weirdness, you gate smoked, and get ranked higher.
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well, the final poll is final
why go by what the teams might do in their next game when there's no next game?
too much work and complication to try to go through each roster, the portal, the NFL opt outs list and then try to determine the relative strength of each team
some back up QBs played well in the bowls (USC) some played like crap (tOSU)
I'd ding FSU for the ugly loss and put them at the bottom of one loss teams and behind a couple 2 loss teams
certainly wouldn't drop them out of the poll
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Sounds about right to me.
I doubt any of us get too excited about whether FSU ends up at 8 or 16.
I'm guessing tenish.
Teams winning their bowl games usually get an unjustified bump IMHO, even if it's by 3 points.
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well, a bowl win is at least against a foe with a winning record - most of the time
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Sure, and maybe a bump is warranted, I just think they overplay it when a team 10-2 ends up 10-3 vs 11-2. OK, it's a thing, but the latter tends to end up "too high" in my view, most of the time.
They mostly just rank according to Ls.
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The championship odds released on Wednesday:
Georgia 5/1
Alabama 11/2
Ohio State 7/1
Texas 9/1
Michigan 10/1
LSU 12/1
Oregon 12/1
Ole Miss 14/1
Florida State 18/1
Penn State 25/1
Tennessee 25/1
Notre Dame 28/1
Clemson 30/1
Texas A&M 33/1
USC 33/1
Oklahoma 40/1
Missouri 50/1
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The championship odds released on Wednesday:
Georgia 5/1
Alabama 11/2
Ohio State 7/1
Texas 9/1
Michigan 10/1
LSU 12/1
Oregon 12/1
Ole Miss 14/1
Florida State 18/1
Penn State 25/1
Tennessee 25/1
Notre Dame 28/1
Clemson 30/1
Texas A&M 33/1
USC 33/1
Oklahoma 40/1
Missouri 50/1
14 of the 17 teams listed there are Big 10 or SEC teams next season.
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I suspect most will end this season ranked as well.
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Washington??
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14 of the 17 teams listed there are Big 10 or SEC teams next season.
Then two ACC and Notre Dame.
Who do you like in the Big 12 next year?
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Okie st or Kansas st
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Odds are that neither of them will win the Championship.
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Then two ACC and Notre Dame.
Who do you like in the Big 12 next year?
I have no idea who has what returning. Just going by recent consistency I think Utah, Ok St, and K St will be picked to finish high. I hear Arizona has a lot coming back. My boys might be a darkhorse pick. Retained a lot of good pieces.
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The Big 12 won’t figure in the national scene but I think it will be a fun, competitive league next season.
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The B12 champ next season is almost certain to have a top 4 placement in the playoff.