CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on November 08, 2023, 12:34:29 PM
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ACC - Louisville and Florida State both win out, Louisville beats FSU in the ACC title game. So you have 12-1 champion Louisville, 12-1 non-champ FSU
BIG XII - Texas wins out, wins title, 12-1 champ Texas
BIG TEN - Penn State beats Michigan, Michigan beats OSU, Iowa upsets PSU in the title game. 11-2 champion Iowa, 11-2 PSU who lost in the CCG, 11-1 OSU and UM who didn't even go to the CCG
PAC 12 - Washington and Oregon both win out, Oregon beats Washington in the P12 title game. So you have 12-1 champion Oregon, and 12-1 champion Washington, who has a regular season win over Oregon
SEC - Alabama and Georgia both win out, Alabama beats Georgia in the title game. So you have 12-1 champion Alabama, 12-1 non-champ Georgia
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not necessarily what i'd pick, but i think it'd end up as oregon, texas, bama, and mich. maybe in that order, but probably:
1 - texas
2 - oregon
3 - bama
4 - mich
texas, oregon, and bama are just waiting their turns to come up after all the attrition.
texas gets top spot for 2 reason, and they're both bama. they beat bama, which is easily the best win anyone of these 4 have, and they've already played bama and putting them 2 would make for an immediate rematch in semis. they haven't done rematches in semis yet, though they've always been recent games, as well as same conf opp, so this might not hold. but that's what i'm going with.
oregon and bama just fall into 2-3 ncely, being p5 champs with solid sos/sor.
mich is the iffy pick, but i went with them for 2 reasons. 1, their loss comes earlier than everyone elses, and 2, they have a major win later on to leapfrog back up. uga, osu, and fsu don't have that luxury.
unfortunate for louisville and moreso iowa, they're just too far behind to make up the gap.
this is all not taking into account whatever potential penalty mich might find themselves in. should they be disqualified somehow, then i think it'd be a toss up for louisville and uga, depending on how each ccg went. i tend to lean louisville, though. having a ccg win vs another cfp contender is no small feat, and uga having failed that test in this scenario puts them just outside of the cfp.
what would i pick? probably the 3 relatively easy ones (texas, oregon, bama) and louisville, for reasons stated just above.
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Georgia
Michigan
Washington
Texas
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I think when you have four 1 loss champions its easy, I would take those 4.
I think maybe OSU/Michigan have an argument, because they only didn't go to the CCG based on a weird tiebreaker. They went 3-0 against three West teams that were slightly worse than the three West teams PSU also went 3-0 against.
I think based on resume I'd go Oregon-Alabama-Texas-Louisville. But do they avoid the rematch? Probably. And moving Alabama up to 1 and leaving a team they lost to at #3, I think what they would do is
- Texas
- Oregon
- Alabama
- Louisville
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ACC - Louisville and Florida State both win out, Louisville beats FSU in the ACC title game. So you have 12-1 champion Louisville, 12-1 non-champ FSU
BIG XII - Texas wins out, wins title, 12-1 champ Texas
BIG TEN - Penn State beats Michigan, Michigan beats OSU, Iowa upsets PSU in the title game. 11-2 champion Iowa, 11-2 PSU who lost in the CCG, 11-1 OSU and UM who didn't even go to the CCG
PAC 12 - Washington and Oregon both win out, Oregon beats Washington in the P12 title game. So you have 12-1 champion Oregon, and 12-1 champion Washington, who has a regular season win over Oregon
SEC - Alabama and Georgia both win out, Alabama beats Georgia in the title game. So you have 12-1 champion Alabama, 12-1 non-champ Georgia
Before Indy:
PSU beats Michigan, lost to OSU - PSU 11-1
Michigan beats OSU, lost to PSU - UM 11-1
OSU beat PSU, lost to Michigan - OSU 11-1
What is the tiebreaker that gives PSU the nod here?
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Before Indy:
PSU beats Michigan, lost to OSU - PSU 11-1
Michigan beats OSU, lost to PSU - UM 11-1
OSU beat PSU, lost to Michigan - OSU 11-1
What is the tiebreaker that gives PSU the nod here?
Tiebreaker #5, best combined record of crossover opponents. Right now that's Penn State, by a game. It could easily change, but it seemed easier to put actual teams in there
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I generally think the loser in a CG should not get in UNLESS there is no good option otherwise.
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IMHO, the committee's criteria and not necessarily wrongly are:
- Undefeated P5 Champs
- 1-loss P5 Champs
- 1-loss P5 non-Champs
By that it is pretty easy to determine the four as four of the P5 leagues produce 1-loss Champs:
- 12-1 ACC Champion Louisville
- 12-1 B12 Champion Texas
- 12-1 P12 Champion Oregon
- 12-1 SEC Champion Alabama
IMHO, the 1-loss teams with the best arguments or at least the most sympathetic sob stories are tOSU and Michigan who both lost out on the CG on a tiebreaker that is way down the list but too bad. To the 1-loss teams that don't get in, I'd say:
- 12-1 CG losers FSU, Washington, and Georgia: I'd say too bad, win your CG.
- 11-1 tOSU and Michigan: I'd say well that is a screwy and way down the list tiebreaker but too bad, beat M/PSU and you wouldn't have to worry about tiebreakers.
As far as the order, I agree with you that they'd likely avoid the rematch. Besides, Bama and Texas are the two biggest draws so it would be better for ratings to split them up so you have a big draw in each semi-final if ratings considerations are important (and they could be) so I think:
- Texas: Loss isn't that bad and the win over fellow-CFP Bama is the only such win for a CFP team.
- Oregon: Loss was close and on the road and avenged and they have looked great so their is an argument for them to be #1.
- Bama: Loss was to a fellow-CFP and they have a HUMONGOUS SECCG win over 2x defending NC UGA so this is arguably low.
- Louisville: Clearly the weakest of the bunch and realistically probably weaker than the five 1-loss teams left out but I'd still include them because we don't *KNOW* that and they did beat FSU and win a P5 with only a single loss.
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BIG TEN - Penn State beats Michigan, Michigan beats OSU, Iowa upsets PSU in the title game. 11-2 champion Iowa, 11-2 PSU who lost in the CCG, 11-1 OSU and UM who didn't even go to the CCG
That's a wild scenario. I'd like to see Michigan win it all this year, but this option also fascinates me.
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What is the tiebreaker that gives PSU the nod here?
Tiebreaker #5, best combined record of crossover opponents. Right now that's Penn State, by a game. It could easily change, but it seemed easier to put actual teams in there
ELA has it right, here are the details:
Penn State:
- 4-2 Iowa (vRU, vIL, @UNL)
- 2-4 Illinois (vIU, @IA, vNU)
- 2-4 Northwestern (@UW, vPU, @IL)
- 8-10 Total
Ohio State:
- 3-3 Minnesota (@PU, @tOSU, vUW)
- 1-5 Purdue (vMN, @NU, vIU)
- 3-3 Wisconsin (vNU, vUNL, @MN)
- 7-11 Total
Michigan:
- 3-3 Minnesota (@PU, @tOSU, vUW)
- 1-5 Purdue (vMN, @NU, vIU)
- 3-3 Nebraska (vUMD, @UW, vIA)
- 7-11 Total
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think the 4 will wind up being UGA, Michigan, Texas, and Oregon
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think the 4 will wind up being UGA, Michigan, Texas, and Oregon
In this scenario, or in general?
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ELA has it right, here are the details:
Penn State:
- 4-2 Iowa (vRU, vIL, @UNL)
- 2-4 Illinois (vIU, @IA, vNU)
- 2-4 Northwestern (@UW, vPU, @IL)
- 8-10 Total
Ohio State:
- 3-3 Minnesota (@PU, @tOSU, vUW)
- 1-5 Purdue (vMN, @NU, vIU)
- 3-3 Wisconsin (vNU, vUNL, @MN)
- 7-11 Total
Michigan:
- 3-3 Minnesota (@PU, @tOSU, vUW)
- 1-5 Purdue (vMN, @NU, vIU)
- 3-3 Nebraska (vUMD, @UW, vIA)
- 7-11 Total
I felt bad stepping on your toes
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I have a couple more scnearios. This is mostly about 1 loss champs versus "better" 1 loss non-champs.
I think they take the 4 1 loss champs here, but I'm curious as to what others think
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I generally think the loser in a CG should not get in UNLESS there is no good option otherwise.
I tend to agree, but I my main gripe is that I hate putting in teams that didn't even qualify for the game over a team that did, but then lost.
That's why the 2017 Alabama team is the one team I have an issue with.
If you lose a CCG, but the team you lost to gets in, or don't win your division but the team who did, did, I don't have a problem with that. I don't mind Ohio State getting in last year. But if Michigan had lost to Purdue, and fallen out, I'd have a problem with OSU getting in, and Michigan getting left out, because they lost a game that OSU didn't even qualify for.
2017 Alabama is the only team that I think had zero business getting in
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ACC - Louisville and Florida State both win out, Louisville beats FSU in the ACC title game. So you have 12-1 champion Louisville, 12-1 non-champ FSU
BIG XII - Texas wins out, wins title, 12-1 champ Texas
BIG TEN - Penn State beats Michigan, Michigan beats OSU, Iowa upsets PSU in the title game. 11-2 champion Iowa, 11-2 PSU who lost in the CCG, 11-1 OSU and UM who didn't even go to the CCG
PAC 12 - Washington and Oregon both win out, Oregon beats Washington in the P12 title game. So you have 12-1 champion Oregon, and 12-1 champion Washington, who has a regular season win over Oregon
SEC - Alabama and Georgia both win out, Alabama beats Georgia in the title game. So you have 12-1 champion Alabama, 12-1 non-champ Georgia
In this scenatio, I'd have
1. Texas
2. Oregpm
3, Alabama
4. Laville
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I felt bad stepping on your toes
LoL, you are good!
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In this scenario, or in general?
in general...but could be wrong.
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ACC - Louisville and Florida State both win out, Louisville beats FSU in the ACC title game. So you have 12-1 champion Louisville, 12-1 non-champ FSU
BIG XII - Texas wins out, wins title, 12-1 champ Texas
BIG TEN - Penn State beats Michigan, Michigan beats OSU, Iowa upsets PSU in the title game. 11-2 champion Iowa, 11-2 PSU who lost in the CCG, 11-1 OSU and UM who didn't even go to the CCG
PAC 12 - Washington and Oregon both win out, Oregon beats Washington in the P12 title game. So you have 12-1 champion Oregon, and 12-1 champion Washington, who has a regular season win over Oregon
SEC - Alabama and Georgia both win out, Alabama beats Georgia in the title game. So you have 12-1 champion Alabama, 12-1 non-champ Georgia
PAC - Oregon lost AT Washington by 3 points. If they beat Washington on a neutral, it has to be them. Both had equally garbage OOC games.
ACC - Florida State has played the tougher schedule, but I'd have to go with Louisville due to H2H.
XII - Texas if they win out.
SEC - Bama.
B1G - OSU - only if Texas DOES NOT win out.
1. Oregon
2. Louisville
3. Bama
4. Texas/OSU
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I tend to agree, but I my main gripe is that I hate putting in teams that didn't even qualify for the game over a team that did, but then lost.
That's why the 2017 Alabama team is the one team I have an issue with.
If you lose a CCG, but the team you lost to gets in, or don't win your division but the team who did, did, I don't have a problem with that. I don't mind Ohio State getting in last year. But if Michigan had lost to Purdue, and fallen out, I'd have a problem with OSU getting in, and Michigan getting left out, because they lost a game that OSU didn't even qualify for.
2017 Alabama is the only team that I think had zero business getting in
i can get that, but who are you putting in instead?
everyone either had 2+ losses (osu, usc, au) or would fit the same as bama (wisc) in that the ccg winner is not in the cfp.
if the order is:
1 - undefeated p5 champ
2 - 1 loss p5 champ
3 - 1 loss p5 non-champ
you're left with 2 options, bama and wisc. that year was going to have issues no matter who got picked. similar to 2007, everyone just flubbed it and someone had to be picked.
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BIG TEN - Penn State beats Michigan, Michigan beats OSU, Iowa upsets PSU in the title game. 11-2 champion Iowa, 11-2 PSU who lost in the CCG, 11-1 OSU and UM who didn't even go to the CCG
I already said that in this hypothetical I don't think any of the B1G teams would make the playoff.
A related question is how would you rank the B1G teams relative to each other? Here is what you have (alphabetically):
- 11-2 Iowa: Lost to PSU and MN, big win is over PSU in the CG and they are the B1G Champion.
- 11-1 Michigan: Lost to PSU, beat tOSU and basically didn't play anyone else.
- 11-1 Ohio State: Lost to M, beat PSU, also has an OOC win over a decent ND but that is about it.
- 11-2 Penn State: Lost to tOSU and Iowa (in CG), beat M and Iowa (regular season), also has an OOC win over WVU.
What say you?
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It depends of course on what happens elsewhere, but I doubt an 11-2 Iowa would get into the CFP. There would be 4 1 or zero loss conference champions elsewhere.
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nobody wants to watch Iowa's offense
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The argument usually is an 11-2 conference champ vs a 11-1 team that looked good save one game, or the 12-1 CG loser. I really lean to the former myself, but I can see why 11-1 might be the better team.
We won't have this quandary as much next season.
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Bama
Georgia
Ohio state
4 TBD but I’d hesitate to put Texas or a PAC team in there.
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We won't have this quandary as much next season.
Humorously, we are going to the 4 team playoff precisely when we've never needed it less. We at one point had 7 solid conferences, then the SWC broke up and dropped us to 6. The ACC raided the Big East, so it was sort of 5.5. Starting next year we essentially have 2 mega conferences, and two conferences that are like the BCS era Big East.
I've noticed in doing the season simulation under the 1983 format that while teams scheduled WAY better OOC, conference play was worse, because the teams were spread out among 6 power conferences, and a very large group of independents.
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Yeah, those 3 years (I think) the compromised Big East champ still got a big bowl invite felt smarmy.
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I figure the 12 gamer is more about $$$$ than making fans happier.
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Yeah, those 3 years (I think) the compromised Big East champ still got a big bowl invite felt smarmy.
You didn't like watching UConn or Cincinnati on New Years Day?
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Humorously, we are going to the 4 team playoff precisely when we've never needed it less. We at one point had 7 solid conferences, then the SWC broke up and dropped us to 6. The ACC raided the Big East, so it was sort of 5.5. Starting next year we essentially have 2 mega conferences, and two conferences that are like the BCS era Big East.
I've noticed in doing the season simulation under the 1983 format that while teams scheduled WAY better OOC, conference play was worse, because the teams were spread out among 6 power conferences, and a very large group of independents.
From the 7 solid conference era, if you took the ACC and the Big East and taped them together, you'd essentially have the current ACC.
So it's basically like another super conference. :098:
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You didn't like watching UConn or Cincinnati on New Years Day?
Not really, sort of like Cincinnati or TCU in the CFP.
Although, it was funny to watch Tebow's final game vs undefeated Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl. 30-3 at halftime. Florida outgained them by 400 yards. Made Tebow look like Dan Marino out there.
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Not really, sort of like Cincinnati or TCU in the CFP.
Although, it was funny to watch Tebow's final game vs undefeated Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl. 30-3 at halftime. Florida outgained them by 400 yards. Made Tebow look like Dan Marino out there.
Sounds to me like you did enjoy watching Cincinnati play in a BCS bowl game. You can still recall all of the details, right off of the cusp, all these years later.
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Tebow had Jesus on his side
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Sounds to me like you did enjoy watching Cincinnati play in a BCS bowl game. You can still recall all of the details, right off of the cusp, all these years later.
Yeah, it's a game called "one of these things is not like the others..."
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Yeah, it's a game called "one of these things is not like the others..."
which 68 would you put in if the season ended today, and the football bracket mirrored the format of the basketball bracket?
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68???
that's the new NCAA w/o the NCAA