CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Hawkinole on September 26, 2023, 04:01:47 PM
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After the drubbing the Hawkeyes took in Happy Valley, the motivation to play for a win or avoid embarrassment should be high for Iowa.
Michigan State also had a drubbing by Maryland. Michigan State's offense has buttery fingers, but at least Michigan State has an offense, something the Hawkeyes lack.
I chose Iowa to win in the pick 'em, but I am not very confident in my pick. This is a very winnable game for Michigan State. Iowa's struggles on offense are well-known, 131st best offense in YPG out of 133 FBS teams. Iowa is a much different team than Michigan State's opponents from the past two weeks, Washington and Maryland, which can move the ball.
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Sickos game of the week. When I thought MSU's DL was going to be the strength of the team I felt ok about this one. Now I think Iowa might just run for 250 yards and win 16-7
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Iowa ran for 20 yards on 17 carries vs PSU
they will be practicing harder this week
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I mean the $1m per year OL coach texted they would be better, and they weren't. Hopefully he doubles down on his MySpace page now
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Iowa 23, Michigan State 10
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Iowa 23, Michigan State 10
According to the App on my phone the line is Iowa - 12.5 with an O/U of 36.5 so:
- 24-12 Iowa is a 12 point Iowa win with 36 total points
- 25-12 Iowa is a 13 point Iowa win with 37 total points
- 23-10 Iowa ( @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's prediction) is a 13 point Iowa win with 33 total points
Maybe I'm missing something here but the under seems like easy money.
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The main scare with the under here is that Iowa may get defensive/special teams TD(s). If you could find a way to bet it that only counts offensive points, then the under is a lock.
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Sickos game of the week. When I thought MSU's DL was going to be the strength of the team I felt ok about this one. Now I think Iowa might just run for 250 yards and win 16-7
when a completely movable object (MSU pass defense)- meets a totally stoppable force (Iowa offense).
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I'd take the under
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I like Iowa to explode for 17 points.
MSU gets 16.
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17-16 hell I'll watch that gotta involve either defense or debacle
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To this point Iowa's defense hasn't produced the turnovers or points like usual.
They are due.
Is sparty and the new qb prone to mistakes?
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Is sparty and the new qb prone to mistakes?
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/002/667/767/d3c.jpg)
Did I do this right?
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After the drubbing the Hawkeyes took in Happy Valley, the motivation to play for a win or avoid embarrassment should be high for Iowa.
Michigan State also had a drubbing by Maryland. Michigan State's offense has buttery fingers, but at least Michigan State has an offense, something the Hawkeyes lack.
First off, I'm not sure Michigan State has an offense much more effective than Iowa's. Once the cupcakes were out of the way (CMU, Richmond), the Spartans proceeded to score 7 points Vs Washington and 9 points Vs Maryland. Both at home.
As for the game, Iowa Vs MSU comes down to what I'd like to call the Embarrassment Factor.
Yes, Iowa was embarrassed by Penn State. But the Hawkeyes return home, there's a sense of something left to play for (winning season, bowl, division race), and the Hawkeyes have the better roster to turn things around in front of their fans. I expect a more motivated Hawkeyes team when they walk out onto the field for a night game tomorrow.
Michigan State was also embarrassed. The difference is whether the last two weeks of both on-field and off-field embarrassment are enough to cause the Spartans to give up on the rest of the season. Especially with ineffective coordinators taking over. Especially with a roster that more increasingly seems underdeveloped and deficient in talent. And for this game, especially going into Iowa City for a night game. It's already looking like MSU was in the process of giving up Vs Maryland last Saturday.
An embarrassed team still playing with hope Vs an embarrassed team playing without hope.
20-6 Iowa.
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To this point Iowa's defense hasn't produced the turnovers or points like usual.
They are due.
Is sparty and the new qb prone to mistakes?
They did have a pick 6 against Iowa State. That was the difference in that game.
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yup, but including that play, they are behind last season's average
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yup, but including that play, they are behind last season's average
And that tells us that since the defense did not score against Penn State on its 97 opportunities to do so, and because the Iowa defense has scored a paltry 8 points all season in 2023, and because Iowa's total scoring at this point in the season is 85, whereas in 2022 at this point it was just 68, that the Iowa offense despite being the 3rd worst in the country in terms of YPG, is much more robust in 2023, than in 2022.
I am so buoyed, and confidently look forward to Iowa blacktopping its remaining 2023 opponents, after this more careful review of the facts.
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That was winning the Iowa way, ugly.
Here is an intriguing story: Pat Fitgerald has a Sideline Pass to the Michigan State - Iowa game, accompanied by some recruits from Loyola Academy where he coaches, including one of his sons. This story comes complete with links to pics of Pat Fitzgerald, and other Big Ten celebrities on the Iowa sidelines, including Tom Izzo, and Fran McCaffrey. Why is Pat Fitzgerald at Iowa-Michigan State game? (hawkcentral.com) (https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/2023/09/30/pat-fitzgerald-iowa-michigan-state-northwestern-coach/71020891007/) (If only Pat Fitzgerald knew how to coach offense.).
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That was winning the Iowa way, ugly.
Here is an intriguing story: Pat Fitgerald has a Sideline Pass to the Michigan State - Iowa game, accompanied by some recruits from Loyola Academy where he coaches, including one of his sons. This story comes complete with links to pics of Pat Fitzgerald, and other Big Ten celebrities on the Iowa sidelines, including Tom Izzo, and Fran McCaffrey. Why is Pat Fitzgerald at Iowa-Michigan State game? (hawkcentral.com) (https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/2023/09/30/pat-fitzgerald-iowa-michigan-state-northwestern-coach/71020891007/) (If only Pat Fitzgerald knew how to coach offense.).
Maybe Fitz was there for an interview, knowing Brian ain't getting to 25 and Kirk goes out with him?
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and to send Kirk a message
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61 yards rushing, 222 total, 2-13 3rd downs, 2 turnovers
win by 10!!!
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According to the App on my phone the line is Iowa - 12.5 with an O/U of 36.5 so:
- 24-12 Iowa is a 12 point Iowa win with 36 total points
- 25-12 Iowa is a 13 point Iowa win with 37 total points
- 23-10 Iowa ( @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's prediction) is a 13 point Iowa win with 33 total points
Maybe I'm missing something here but the under seems like easy money.
Glad I'm not a bettor
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That was winning the Iowa way, ugly.
One of those games where either team didn't play competently enough to take advantage of each others obvious weaknesses. Which might be a good descriptor for football in the West division.
Iowa's run blocking was beat most of the night by a Spartans DL who played their hearts out until wear and tear set in late in the game. Hawkeyes ground game gained only 61 yards which is concerning if you're passing game is well known for its very low ceiling of play.
Iowa's backup QB Hill, taking over after McNamara's injury, was reluctant to throw downfield, his play limited by only taking what the defense gave - 4 or 5 yd passes. An undermanned Spartans defense was able to snuff out this low risk approach. Consequently to watch Iowa's non-dimensional offense is to witness about the easiest-to-defend offense you'll ever see.
On the other side of the ball, Noah Kim is a pedestrian QB talent. MSU’s offense has scored one touchdown in the last ten quarters with Noah Kim as the quarterback. Most of his passes are lofts toward the sideline. Time to move on. Kim is a Dantonio recruit, leaving me wondering how Mel Tucker and Jay Johnson couldn't've found a better QB in the 3 or 4 seasons they've coached in East Lansing.
It took Cooper DeJean's late Punt Return for TD to break through the stalemate. DeJean reminds me of one of those multipurpose players Belichick is known to maximize, like Danny Woodhead or Rex Burkhead.
By then, halfway through the 4th, things were starting to fall apart for MSU. The crowd, who'd been waiting for three quarters to erupt, was drowning out MSU's snap counts, resulting in several late false start penalties. And DT Barrow (another Dantonio recruit), who played heroically as a run stuffer, went out with an injury.
And speaking of Dantonio, what was he doing on the sideline last night? Interfacing with the coaches during gameplay? If this was a one-time visit, why for a road game?
(https://i.imgur.com/vtqLTI5.png)
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And speaking of Dantonio, what was he doing on the sideline last night? Interfacing with the coaches during gameplay? If this was a one-time visit, why for a road game?
He's been an advisor since Mel was suspended. Not with the Xs and Os, but basically to help Barnett with what the other tasks of an HC are
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61 yards rushing, 222 total, 2-13 3rd downs, 2 turnovers
win by 10!!!
MSU has outgained 4 of their 5 opponents this year. Turnovers and punting. Yuck
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Iowa has NOT outgained 4 of their 5 opponents this year. Turnovers and punting.
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Iowa has NOT outgained 4 of their 5 opponents this year. Turnovers and punting.
This same strategy was good for 8-5 in 2022. It is not a reliable strategy if the goal is to win a Big Ten championship.
It is a strategy that results in more losses than would otherwise occur, to assure that one's own family member, who is very bad at what he does for a living (running an offense in the bottom 1 percentile of YPG), is compensated within the top 1 percentile of all American income earners.
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As to why the computers still (relatively) like MSU
https://twitter.com/bigalfredosauce/status/1708852587947065602?s=20