CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2023, 02:52:22 PM
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I'm going to change this up a little bit. Instead of sorting these chronologically like I normally do I'm going to sort them by the size of the betting line as reported on the Football Scores Ap on my phone because that should probably be a good proxy for interest level. I'm interested in feedback so let me know if you prefer this or chronological. Here it is by line:
- Purdue +2.5 vs Syracuse, Saturday at 7:30 on NBC
- Rutgers -7 vs Virginia Tech, Saturday at 3:30 on BTN
- Minnesota +7.5 at #20 North Carolina Saturday at 3:30 on ESPN
- Indiana +9.5 vs Louisville, Saturday at noon on BTN
- Nebraska -10.5 vs Northern Illinois, Saturday at 7pm on FS1
- #7 Penn State -14 at Illinois, Saturday at noon on FOX
- Maryland -14 vs Virginia, Friday at 7pm on FS1
- Michigan State +16.5 vs Washington Saturday at 5 pm on Peacock
- Northwestern +18.5 at #21 Duke Saturday at 3:30 on ACCN
- Wisconsin -19 vs Georgia Southern, Saturday at noon on BTN
- #6 Ohio State -27 vs Western Kentucky, Saturday at 4pm on FOX
- #25 Iowa -28 vs Western Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 on BTN
- #2 Michigan -40 vs Bowling Green, Saturday at 7:30 on BTN
My initial thoughts:
- A lot of crap games. Nine of the 13 have double-digit spreads.
- How is Iowa going to cover a four TD spread?
- As far as the strength of the conference, I like our chances to pull an upset somewhere out of PU, MN, or IU and that would be nice so long as it is not offset by an upset loss by RU or someone else.
- What is MSU going to look like in the midst of this mess?
Peeking ahead at next week, it is a MUCH better slate of games. There are a lot less games because there are five league games (UW@PU, MN@NU, RU@M, UMD@MSU, IA@PSU) instead of just one like this week but there are two headliner match-ups (tOSU/ND and IA/PSU) of ranked vs ranked.
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Purdue might have the dumbest OOC I've ever seen. Two low end P5 schools, and a high end mid major. 3 schools that could beat them, but doesn't give you much clout for winning.
I mean, as a fan, I would love having 3 interesting OOC games, but I think MSU's strategy of 2 cupcakes and a major game is the way to go for programs at our and Purdue's level.
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Purdue might have the dumbest OOC I've ever seen. Two low end P5 schools, and a high end mid major. 3 schools that could beat them, but doesn't give you much clout for winning.
I mean, as a fan, I would love having 3 interesting OOC games, but I think MSU's strategy of 2 cupcakes and a major game is the way to go for programs at our and Purdue's level.
I honestly think it's the way to go for programs at any level. Get a couple pre-season tune-ups in, then play a real team. I wonder if that will be harder to do now because of realignment though. Remember, Georgia was suppose to play Oklahoma this year and that got nuked bc of expansion. Michigan is suppose to play Texas next year....my hunch.....that one is gonna get nuked too.
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Purdue might have the dumbest OOC I've ever seen. Two low end P5 schools, and a high end mid major. 3 schools that could beat them, but doesn't give you much clout for winning.
I mean, as a fan, I would love having 3 interesting OOC games, but I think MSU's strategy of 2 cupcakes and a major game is the way to go for programs at our and Purdue's level.
Agreed. It is a great schedule in terms of interest level because all three games were/are close to toss-ups but going 3-0 wouldn't get you much and all three, as you said, are very much games they could lose.
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Gonna be at Caesar's on Saturday... Maybe I'll drop a little on Purdue on the money line in that game.
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I honestly think it's the way to go for programs at any level. Get a couple pre-season tune-ups in, then play a real team. I wonder if that will be harder to do now because of realignment though. Remember, Georgia was suppose to play Oklahoma this year and that got nuked bc of expansion. Michigan is suppose to play Texas next year....my hunch.....that one is gonna get nuked too.
I mean until we go to 12, scheduling 3 cupcakes is the way to go for playoff teams. We still treat 12-0 with 3 cupcake wins > 11-1 with a good OOC loss.
UM is scheduling like a team that wants to go to the playoff, knowing that 0 losses > 1 loss > 2 losses, even if the teams have identical conference records.
2016 Washington made the CFP at 11-1 over 10-2 Penn State, Michigan, and Oklahoma. Their OOC was Rutgers, Idaho, FCS, all at home. Penn State had an OOC road loss at Pitt, Michigan beat a Colorado team that wound up making the P12 Championship; Oklahoma lost to #14 Houston and #3 Ohio State. So if Penn State and Oklahoma had scheduled like Washington, they would be 11-1 and 12-0 respectively. And Michigan got no credit for beating Colorado, because in September nobody thought they'd be good, but by the time Washington beat them in the P12 Championship, it was a top 10 win.
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Purdue might have the dumbest OOC I've ever seen. Two low end P5 schools, and a high end mid major. 3 schools that could beat them, but doesn't give you much clout for winning.
I mean, as a fan, I would love having 3 interesting OOC games, but I think MSU's strategy of 2 cupcakes and a major game is the way to go for programs at our and Purdue's level.
Well, this schedule was made a while ago. The thought process at the time was that the program was going in a positive direction and that these games would be more in the "favored by 7" area as opposed to "toss-up" area. Brohm bailing snowballed into several recruits and current players leaving.
Purdue doesn't have the "brand" that even the mid-tier Big Ten schools have. In order to get recruits, you have to show them something that appeals to them when compared to Iowa or MSU. Playing a schedule against name teams, even if they are not currently in their hey-days, is one of those ways you do that.
I am also a firm believer that you only get better by playing equal or better competition. I am absolutely convinced that the reason that Purdue beat VT is because they took their lumps the first week against FSU and learned from them as opposed to VT who beat up on a happless ODU.
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I am also a firm believer that you only get better by playing equal or better competition. I am absolutely convinced that the reason that Purdue beat VT is because they took their lumps the first week against FSU and learned from them as opposed to VT who beat up on a happless ODU.
I mean, like I said, as a fan, I would love this. But if Purdue misses out on bowl prep because they went 5-7...
I remember when UM played EMU my freshman year of HS (1998), everyone thought it was a joke. I think they had played Miami, who was a class above the rest of the MAC, but we thought playing EMU was rock bottom. EMU might be better than the 3 teams UM scheduled this year
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I mean, like I said, as a fan, I would love this. But if Purdue misses out on bowl prep because they went 5-7...
Meh. Not worried. Purdue is going 8-4 this year. :cheer:
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Gophers @ North Carolina may be the best league game on the docket this week. This is a very winnable game for the Gophers. Tar Heels needed two overtimes to beat a junk Appy State team at home.
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How is Iowa going to cover a four TD spread?
In 2022, two games in, Iowa was 1-1 and had scored a total of 10 points in two games.
In 2023, two games in, Iowa is 2-0, and has scored 44 points.
The offense looks better, but not yet average. Against Western Michigan I look for the Iowa offense to have a breakout game and score at least 31 points.
This year's defense hasn't quite caught up to last year's defense, but it is not far behind. Jermari Harris should be playing CB this Saturday. He started 6-games in 2021, and was out for medical reasons in 2022. He missed the first two games of 2023 for undisclosed reasons, possibly related to the gambling probe. His replacement Deshaun Lee has been repeatedly targeted because no opponent wants to throw toward Cooper Dejean, the other cornerback. Deshaun Lee to my eye has played solidly given the many chances taken against him. With Jermari Harris, Iowa should get a slight improvement at CB this weekend.
Gophers @ North Carolina may be the best league game on the docket this week. This is a very winnable game for the Gophers. Tar Heels needed two overtimes to beat a junk Appy State team at home.
It may be the best Big Ten game this week. Good luck Golden Gophers!
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To cover the spread Iowa will have to win something like 34-6.with Iowa scoring on a pick-6 and 3 other Iowa take aways that set up easy Iowa scores.
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I mean until we go to 12, scheduling 3 cupcakes is the way to go for playoff teams. We still treat 12-0 with 3 cupcake wins > 11-1 with a good OOC loss.
UM is scheduling like a team that wants to go to the playoff, knowing that 0 losses > 1 loss > 2 losses, even if the teams have identical conference records.
2016 Washington made the CFP at 11-1 over 10-2 Penn State, Michigan, and Oklahoma. Their OOC was Rutgers, Idaho, FCS, all at home. Penn State had an OOC road loss at Pitt, Michigan beat a Colorado team that wound up making the P12 Championship; Oklahoma lost to #14 Houston and #3 Ohio State. So if Penn State and Oklahoma had scheduled like Washington, they would be 11-1 and 12-0 respectively. And Michigan got no credit for beating Colorado, because in September nobody thought they'd be good, but by the time Washington beat them in the P12 Championship, it was a top 10 win.
Well it changes next year but for now you are right. Basically the old "Never Schedule a Loss" advice.
I've wanted to believe that Ohio State's generally relatively strong SoS has been or would be a factor in their favor but you are right. As @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) often complains, the CFP rankings are just a sequential list of:
- Undefeated P5
- One-loss P5
- Two-loss P5
Then the rare non P5 undefeateds and one-loss teams get sprinkled in.
In 2016 Ohio State's OOC win over B12 Champions Oklahoma helped get them in but it isn't clear that they wouldn't have been in if they had beaten OkSU, Tulsa, or for that matter some FCS instead of The Sooners. Even if tOSU's 2016 win over OU got the Buckeyes in, it is still no better than a wash because tOSU's 2017 loss to OU kept them out.
SoS is completely irrelevant if you are an undefeated or 1-loss B1G Champion. Since no two-loss team has made the CFP, SoS only plausibly matters for an 11-1 team that didn't make the CG or a 12-1 team that lost the CG.
In those extremely rare cases Ohio State would be a little better positioned than Michigan or Penn State due to tOSU's game against Notre Dame. To get that extremely unlikely advantage, Ohio State is taking the MUCH more likely risk that the stronger schedule will simply result in more losses and knock tOSU out of the discussion.
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Looks like an unofficial B1G vs. ACC Challenge this week.
Six games pitting the two leagues against each other, if I'm not mistaken...
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Looks like an unofficial B1G vs. ACC Challenge this week.
Six games pitting the two leagues against each other, if I'm not mistaken...
I'm going to change this up a little bit. Instead of sorting these chronologically like I normally do I'm going to sort them by the size of the betting line as reported on the Football Scores Ap on my phone because that should probably be a good proxy for interest level. I'm interested in feedback so let me know if you prefer this or chronological. Here it is by line:
- Purdue +2.5 vs Syracuse, Saturday at 7:30 on NBC
- Rutgers -7 vs Virginia Tech, Saturday at 3:30 on BTN
- Minnesota +7.5 at #20 North Carolina Saturday at 3:30 on ESPN
- Indiana +9.5 vs Louisville, Saturday at noon on BTN
- Maryland -14 vs Virginia, Friday at 7pm on FS1
- Northwestern +18.5 at #21 Duke Saturday at 3:30 on ACCN
You are right and it even looks like a close-to-even set of matchups. This could end up significantly impacting the eventual CFP depending on how things shake out.
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I think the CFP most likely will be four P5 conference champs with one of fewer losses. If some have 2 losses, then the one loss team from the SEC. I don't see a game above that is likely to impact that, maybe Duke?
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I think the CFP most likely will be four P5 conference champs with one of fewer losses. If some have 2 losses, then the one loss team from the SEC. I don't see a game above that is likely to impact that, maybe Duke?
These games could affect the strength of schedule rankings if say Georgia, FSU, Utah, Mich, Texas all end up going 13-0.
or more likely, if both the ACC champ and Big Ten champ go 12-1 and they are the 4th and 5th ranked schools in this year's CFP. It could be the Big Ten VS. ACC record that may be the deciding factor.
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I rarely see such relatively minor SoS debates happening in apparent committee decisions, but it is possible.
Folks here get into it more than they do, I think.
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I rarely see such relatively minor SoS debates happening in apparent committee decisions, but it is possible.
Folks here get into it more than they do, I think.
I think you are right so long as these six games go somewhere close to as expected but where I could see it mattering is if say the B1G sweeps the games this weekend and then something like this:
or more likely, if both the ACC champ and Big Ten champ go 12-1 and they are the 4th and 5th ranked schools in this year's CFP. It could be the Big Ten VS. ACC record that may be the deciding factor.
Happened.
In this case the B1G's 6-0 record in these games would be a huge help for the 12-1 B1G Champion and the ACC's 0-6 record in these games would be a huge obstacle for the 12-1 ACC Champion.
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A 12-1 ACC champ almost certainly will make the playoff anyway.
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Nebraska QB Sims is working through an injury and is questionable for Saturday nights game.
https://www.yardbarker.com/colleges/nebraska_cornhuskers/58 (https://www.yardbarker.com/colleges/nebraska_cornhuskers/58)