CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on August 15, 2023, 01:55:57 PM
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Presume you had never heard of climate change, it's just your own perception.
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I've not lived here long enough to say. It's hot in the summer and very moderate in the winter.
Now, back North...
Did not notice much in the way of changes.
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Hard to say. Summer is always hot,hot, hot and humid here in SE Texas. Winters seem colder some years, very mild the next. Used to hardly ever freeze, now it seems to get to 20 deg every year.
I can’t tell about summer, because we NEVER have a mild summer, and I’m older.
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I mean, THIS summer is the hottest on record, where I live.
But last summer wasn't, nor the summer before that. So it's not like there's a trend where it's getting linearly hotter with each passing year. Before 2023, I think you have to go back to 2011 to find a summer that is comparatively hot. And in 1980, they made t-shirts down here in Texico that said:
(https://i.imgur.com/l6TbxWs.png)
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I lean towards warmer, but it's hard to tell. Orange County has a lot of microclimates depending on how far you are from the ocean and what's between you and the ocean... And I've lived in a bunch of them over the last 22 years lol:
- Lake Forest -- actually very close to where I live now.
- Irvine #1 -- close to 405 freeway meaning a bit closer to ocean and not much between
- Irvine #2 -- close to 5 freeway so ~5 miles farther from the ocean
- <moved to GA for 2 years>
- Dana Point -- Had a 1 mi walk to the ocean, absolutely gorgeous weather
- Laguna Niguel -- Not far as the crow flies from the water, but with foothills between
- Laguna Hills -- Slightly farther from the water, hills between
- Mission Viejo -- 5 mi farther inland definitely starting to feel the heat being farther away
I recall some isolated really hot weeks in summer ~20 years ago here. Over the last few years being in Mission Viejo, it seems like that mid-July->end-Aug tends to be more sustained heat each year. But oddly this year we got a lot of heat early and it's been more temperate since... Last year I think August was mostly highs in the mid-high 90s, it's been a lot of 80s over the last week or two.
Those last two comprise a stretch from the end of 2010 until now, so you'd think that's a decent sample size... But Mission Viejo is hotter than Laguna Hills, so halfway through I reset the sample.
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I checked, "Yes." However, I would add, we are coming off a late arriving spring, and a mild summer, I would clarify my yes, as follows: "Yes, but so not so much in 2023." I notice the extremes more than warming.
We had a dam breach 10-miles south of here that drained all the water out of a recreational lake in 2010. Lake Delhi - We Will Be Back - Trailer - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-c96Jw5dog) It was rather spectacular if you care to view the video.
And, 2010 wasn't the only year with excessive precipitation. We get drought years occasionally, but you really notice when excessive precipitation sets in as it did in 1993, and 2010, and a few other years close to 2010 there was extensive flooding locally because the office building I opened my law practice in in 1991, flooded 2x circa 2008-2012, and the building was torn down. It never took flood water in the years 1991 through 1999 that I practiced there, although it came close.
Flood zone maps in our community of 5,000 were redrawn circa 2013. I would guess 40% or more of this town is now in a 500-year or 100-year flood plain (fortunately the 500-year ends just across the street in the backyards of my neighbors.). Anyone getting a mortgage loan in the 500-year flood plain will likely have to purchase flood insurance.
We have had three winters the past 20-years in which temperatures ranged between -28F and -37F. I take notice of extremes of temperatures some winters, because my peach trees die at about -28F, or maybe at -24F they almost die, and have to be brought down.
Extreme low temperatures and major precipitation events engrain in my memory more than the heat.
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I mean, THIS summer is the hottest on record, where I live.
But last summer wasn't, nor the summer before that. So it's not like there's a trend where it's getting linearly hotter with each passing year. Before 2023, I think you have to go back to 2011 to find a summer that is comparatively hot. And in 1980, they made t-shirts down here in Texico that said:
(https://i.imgur.com/l6TbxWs.png)
I looked it up and here in Houston is no where near the hottest on record but it is damn hot
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Hmm. That’s a good question. My perception is that winters here are milder than they used to be. I have no hard data to back that up and could be completely wrong but it seems that way.
I seem to remember getting more snow as a kid. FWIW, a lot of people I bring that up to anecdotally seem to agree.
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My only climate change observation is that tornado alley is moving further east, in my 45+ years, not sure of that means it's expanding east only or expanding as in tornado alley is wider in totality.
I've noted all of the fawning over heat waves but this is solely a south/sw occurrence. There is nothing hot about the summer in the upper Midwest and NE this year. Using 90 degrees as a proxy for a market which peaks put around a average high of 86, we will likely not approach a normal summer of 20 days at or above 90. If someone wants to shove a hot summer in Texas in my face. I give you the entire upper Midwest and Northeast.
I would like for some honest discussion about the benefits of warming considering deaths due to cold weather easily exceed deaths due to heat across the globe annually.
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On Chicago and Midwest, the extremely hot summers with the super high 100 degree peak days same more rare than than the 80's and 90's
Working off memory, here were extremely hot summers in 83, 88, 95, and 99, but since then only 2012 sticks out.
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Yes. 83, 88, 95 and 12 were the standouts here too. 1988 was smokin along with 2012, top 10 all time for Indy. We're running out of days of summer but it appears 2023 may be the coolest summer in 19 years in Indy, but thats not clickbait, just weather. Like most of the US, 1930s are such an outlier in all time high temps in Indy. 7 of the hottest 11 summers took place between 1930 and 1941 in Indy.
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Not a fan of this thread.
"Hey everybody, got any anecdotal evidence?" I get it, it's harmless. But still.
The statistics tell us everything we need to know.
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Winters seem colder some years, very mild the next. Used to hardly ever freeze, now it seems to get to 20 deg every year.
Any luck you'll be ice fishing
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7 of the hottest 11 summers took place between 1930 and 1941 in Indy.
I know 7 of the snowiest winters here have taken place from '95- 2011 :111:
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It's rained a lot more this year than it did the last two before that.
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It's rained a lot more this year than it did the last two before that.
Except in June. Everything turned brown in June this year
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Not a fan of this thread.
"Hey everybody, got any anecdotal evidence?" I get it, it's harmless. But still.
The statistics tell us everything we need to know.
Yes, the question is about perception, and my perception is that things haven't changed much in the Midwest, in fact the weather seems less extreme in recent decades to me.
Now I know in reality the stats say the average temps are up in recent years and I am not arguing that. I believe climate change is real and there will be consequences. It just doesn't feel like the weather has gotten any worse, that's all.
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Not a fan of this thread.
"Hey everybody, got any anecdotal evidence?" I get it, it's harmless. But still.
The statistics tell us everything we need to know.
You're right.
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Your fun lil graph there ignores any and all improvements in fire prevention the last 100 years.
Cute.
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https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/wildfires-broke-records-around-the-world-in-2021/
Yet, these are world record fires!!!!! since we've been tracking carbon emission ......in 2003.
Quit telling me these are records. the Science, the MF ing US Gov't Forest Service begs to differ in a massive way.
we still have better baseball records than we do climate records.
how does my cute graph ignore, it simply tells us how much burning we've seen in the US the past century. You choose to wave away the science!!!!
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"the science"
Sheesh.
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Again this is about perception and my perception is based more on peak temps than the average temps. So if you look at the peak temps each year in Chicago, why would you feel like things are getting hotter?
| 101 | June 21, 2022 | 38 |
| 96 | August 24, 2021 | 36 |
| 96 | August 24, 2020 | 36 |
| 97 | July 20, 2019 | 36 |
| 96 | August 27, 2018 + | 36 |
| 95 | June 12, 2017 | 35 |
| 94 | September 07, 2016 + | 34 |
| 95 | August 02, 2015 | 35 |
| 93 | June 17, 2014 + | 34 |
| 97 | July 19, 2013 | 36 |
| 105 | July 06, 2012 | 41 |
| 101 | July 21, 2011 | 38 |
| 95 | July 23, 2010 | 35 |
| 93 | June 25, 2009 + | 34 |
| 95 | September 02, 2008 | 35 |
| 94 | July 09, 2007 | 34 |
| 99 | August 01, 2006 + | 37 |
| 104 | July 24, 2005 | 40 |
| 92 | July 22, 2004 + | 33 |
| 97 | August 21, 2003 | 36 |
| 98 | July 21, 2002 | 37 |
| 97 | July 22, 2001 | 36 |
| 94 | September 01, 2000 + | 34 |
| 104 | July 30, 1999 | 40 |
| 97 | June 25, 1998 | 36 |
| 99 | July 26, 1997 | 37 |
| 94 | August 07, 1996 + | 34 |
| 106 | July 13, 1995 | 41 |
| 96 | July 05, 1994 | 36 |
| 95 | August 26, 1993 | 35 |
| 93 | August 09, 1992 | 34 |
| 102 | August 02, 1991 + | 39 |
| 100 | July 04, 1990 | 38 |
| 101 | July 10, 1989 | 38 |
| 104 | June 25, 1988 | 40 |
| 99 | June 14, 1987 | 37 |
| 97 | July 19, 1986 | 36 |
| 97 | June 08, 1985 | 36 |
| 98 | July 10, 1984 | 37 |
| 100 | July 28, 1983 + | 38 |
| 95 | August 03, 1982 | 35 |
| 95 | July 12, 1981 | 35 |
| – | 1980 | – |
| 92 | August 07, 1979 | 33 |
| 95 | September 08, 1978 | 35 |
| 99 | July 15, 1977 | 37 |
| 100 | July 10, 1976 | 38 |
| 94 | August 11, 1975 + | 34 |
| 99 | July 14, 1974 + | 37 |
| 97 | August 27, 1973 + | 36 |
| 96 | July 22, 1972 | 36 |
| 101 | June 28, 1971 + | 38 |
| 99 | July 02, 1970 | 37 |
| 96 | June 26, 1969 | 36 |
| 96 | June 23, 1968 + | 36 |
| 93 | May 26, 1967 | 34 |
| 98 | July 10, 1966 | 37 |
| 94 | July 23, 1965 + | 34 |
| 98 | August 03, 1964 | 37 |
| 99 | July 01, 1963 | 37 |
| 96 | August 20, 1962 | 36 |
| 95 | August 31, 1961 + | 35 |
| 100 | September 07, 1960 | 38 |
| 96 | September 08, 1959 + | 36 |
| 94 | August 30, 1958 | 34 |
| 96 | June 17, 1957 | 36 |
| 103 | July 01, 1956 | 39 |
| 100 | July 27, 1955 | 38 |
| 100 | June 25, 1954 | 38 |
| 104 | June 20, 1953 | 40 |
| 101 | June 28, 1952 | 38 |
| 92 | August 31, 1951 + | 33 |
| 93 | August 16, 1950 + | 34 |
| 102 | July 03, 1949 | 39 |
| 98 | August 24, 1948 | 37 |
| 101 | August 06, 1947 | 38 |
| 100 | July 18, 1946 | 38 |
| 99 | July 31, 1945 + | 37 |
| 100 | June 27, 1944 | 38 |
| 97 | June 27, 1943 | 36 |
| 100 | July 17, 1942 | 38 |
Again I know it's misleading and the average temps are in fact going up but that does not seem to mean the hottest day of the year has been going up.
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Hot as shit where I am right now.
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Not a fan of this thread.
"Hey everybody, got any anecdotal evidence?" I get it, it's harmless. But still.
The statistics tell us everything we need to know.
And you completely missed my point in posting this.
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I postulated on the other thread that a reason some folks don't really accept CC as a "fact" is they haven't noticed it themselves. The poll suggests most of us have, perhaps that was influenced by media reports to some extent.
The evidence suggest things have warmed by 1.1°C over the past century. I wondered if that was enough to notice without data. It seems that it is. I checked the second box myself mostly based on my recollection of winter when I was a kid.
Then the question would be how much shift would be needed for nearly everyone to agree it's getting hotter (without reading up on the "news" and evidence and figures etc.).
I'd note that it remains difficult to measure a "global mean temperature", maybe it's really impossible.
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Hard to notice 1.1C
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Flood zone maps in our community of 5,000 were redrawn circa 2013. I would guess 40% or more of this town is now in a 500-year or 100-year flood plain (fortunately the 500-year ends just across the street in the backyards of my neighbors.). Anyone getting a mortgage loan in the 500-year flood plain will likely have to purchase flood insurance.
Find a different lender, because this is not the case. There is no basis for calculating what a 500-year storm is. It's all based on extrapolation and is not reliable.
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Hence the fire graph. Poll folks now and ask them if we are seeing more , the same or less wildfires in the US since early 20th C. Is there any doubt what such a poll would tell us?
People act like wildfires are some recent phenomenon getting worse cuz of fossil fuels or something.
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Yup, and hard to measure to boot in a global sense. Think of all the ocean area with no data. Ideally, one would have reliable measuring devices every 100 km or so, or something, making a grid. The satellite data are not considered reliable, and in any event would only cover 50 years or so. How did "we" measure global T in 1930?
So we fall back on notional feelings, memories, recollections, etc. This is a reason it's pretty easy to be a "Denier". And as noted, that position usually/nearly always reflects one's politics more than ones dispassionate assessment.
Can going from 280 ppm to 420 ppm really make much difference? Well, even if it does, it's not much difference, in terms of one's own climate experiences.
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Hence the fire graph. Poll folks now and ask them if we are seeing more , the same or less wildfires in the US since early 20th C. Is there any doubt what such a poll would tell us?
People act like wildfires are some recent phenomenon getting worse cuz of fossil fuels or something.
Wildfires are a very poor measure of climate change. It could reflect forest management, coverage, forest types, drought (which could be a climate thing of course) ... and in 1910, perhaps fires existed few knew anything about.
Forest fires: what climate conclusions? - Thunder Said Energy (https://thundersaidenergy.com/2021/04/22/forest-fires-what-climate-conclusions/)
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Maui burned.
We have to do something!!!
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Wildfires are a very poor measure of climate change. It could reflect forest management, coverage, forest types, drought (which could be a climate thing of course) ... and in 1910, perhaps fires existed few knew anything about.
Forest fires: what climate conclusions? - Thunder Said Energy (https://thundersaidenergy.com/2021/04/22/forest-fires-what-climate-conclusions/)
Shhh. Don't tell anyone.
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Shhh. Don't tell anyone.
Do we need more forest fires?
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(https://i.imgur.com/M1soxNf.jpg)
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I think all the "alarmism" gets in the way of having any rational discussion of the topic, not that it would help much anyway. We're going to throw money at it and then wonder why it didn't help.
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Do we need more forest fires?
Forests need to be managed better, for sure. CA has not done a good job with that in recent years.
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Maui burned.
We have to do something!!!
Hawaii could have done something but chose not to. Now, predicably, the power companies are being blamed.
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Unless China and India are wrangled under control, this climate crisis business is pissing in the wind.
Not to mention the biggest alarmists, are also the biggest hypocrites, which doesn't sit well with me.
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Yeah, in some ways, it would be "better" if we had a string of weather catastrophes. In a general sense, human beings are fairly selfish. We don't really take action unless something personally affects us. While the data indicates things are getting hotter, it is not in a way that can really be measured by anecdotal recollections. We only remember the extremes that stand out to us because those affected us personally ("I remember the summer of '83 being so hot.....").
If a catastrophe happened like what happens in some of those disaster movies, it would be easy for us to say, "Yup, this is a problem, and it's big enough we need to do something about it." Since we can't really "feel" the difference because it has stretched over decades, we can't mobilize enough people to change accordingly.
One thing I noticed a few years ago that I am curious about is fall foliage. Two years ago, the leaves didn't start to turn until much later than usual (at least, here in central Ohio). When they did turn, they didn't start to fall until the first week of November or later. Last year was closer to normal (mid-October), but this is something I am going to pay attention to a bit more this year to see if two years ago was just a one-off or whether there is a trend. I seem to recall that when I was younger, the leaves were always on the ground by mid-October (anyone else remember those Hefty garbage bags that were bright orange with a jack-o-lantern face that you could use as a cheap Halloween decoration when you filled it up with yard leaves? I don't think I've seen those in a long while now and I'm wondering if it is because the leaves aren't falling as early as they used to). My understanding is that there are several factors that can go into that besides temperature (rainfall, number of hours of daylight, etc.), but just something to keep an eye on, you know, from an anecdotal standpoint.....
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I have been noticing what I believe to be a shift in the seasons here in Northern Ohio. For example, it seems that Winter seems to hold on longer into Spring and that Summer seems to hang on longer into the Fall.
As someone that has played, coached and officiated Football since about 1978, I have really noticed the change in the weather in the fall. Years ago, the last 3 or 4 games were really cold, requiring dressing warmer for the games. As a FB official, we were breaking out the winter gear for the last 3 or 4 games with many games played during snowfall.
In the last few years before I retired from officiating, we were still wearing short sleeves for the last couple of games. Sure there would be a game or so that was colder, but generally speaking, we hardly ever broke out the winter gear.
Some of this could be explained by Ohio moving the season up a week or so over the years to accommodate more teams making the playoffs, but not to the extent we saw.
Also as a golfer, I noticed that the opportunities to play golf in the early spring are far fewer than they were in the past. Years ago, there would be quite a few weekends were we could get out in late March, early April and be comfortable. Lately, those weekends are much fewer and I have generally not played much until May.
Those are simply my perceptions. For whatever reason, it just feels that the seasons have shifted back by about a month.
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To answer the question posed in the thread, I voted the 2nd answer. Yeah it seems warmer, but not all that much.
This summer has been one of the mildest summers that I can remember. We have had plenty of rain and temps are generally in the high 70's to low 80's. We have only had the AC on for about 9 or 10 days this summer when usually it would run from early July until sometime in September. I really notice this in my electric bills. ;)
Now, I don't see this as evidence of CC one way or the other, just an observation. I do believe that the Climate of the Earth is changing, just as it has done since the Earth had a climate. I just don't buy into the notion that it is being driven by humans. That is not to say that we shouldn't be good stewards of our environment and do what we can WITHIN REASON to keep the Earth as pristine as possible.
But we also have to balance the needs of humans to live comfortably and prosper allowing for innovation that will allow future generations to carry on and hopefully do better with each successive generation. The notion that we can simply give up fossil fuels in favor of green energy now is simply a pipe dream. The technology to effectively eliminate FF's and replace them with green energy is simply not there and would result in millions of people starving/freezing to death.
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For whatever reason, it just feels that the seasons have shifted back by about a month.
This is my theory as well. Gone are the days here in West TN, where April is shorts and T shirts weather. Maybe late, late April, but the last few years we are wearing long sleeves and sweatshirts on into early May. Weird for the South.
Also, I wonder if we all think summers are hotter now because we are older, and the tolerance just isn't there like it was when we were kids. 100 degree days didn't mean a thing to me at 14, now, no thanks.
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Summer temperatures bounce around so much in most places it's hard to tell (for me, and I suspect most). A hot spell is followed by a less hot spell and back it goes. My notional feeling about winter is based on snow fall, though we've only been back here five winters. And we're had no ice storms. And yes, our memory from when we were 10 isn't that reliable, and what affected us then probably doesn't as much now, and vice versa. I know I played baseball in summer heat and never really thought about it.
So, I think for most of us here, we think our climate may be warming some, but aren't sure (without relying on official figures, just our feelings).
This El Nino/La Nina thing is not something discussed when I was a kid, maybe because it doesn't impact us much in the SE.
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This El Nino/La Nina thing is not something discussed when I was a kid, maybe because it doesn't impact us much in the SE.
I never heard of El Nino before 1997 and it was apparently new enough to most people that SNL made the iconic skit:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EE2LuEInJJ0
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Yup, I'd never heard of El Nino/La Nina either, until shortly before that skit came out.
But I'm definitely hoping for some serious El Nino up in here for a couple of years or twelve.
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Up on the Navajo rez, having lived there for 8 years, I did see a gradual shift of a sand dune area. Over time, it went from off to the side of the road maybe 10-15 feet and by the time I left, it had crept 3-4 feet out onto the road.
This wasn't the edge of it creeping out on a windy day, the landmass of dunes had moved.
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Are you doing peyote buttons and playing with Ouija Boards again? j/k
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Extreme low temperatures and major precipitation events engrain in my memory more than the heat.
I have to update my post. This is the worst week of hot humidity I have experienced in Iowa. I think we had feel like temperatures of 113 degrees F, today. Three anhydrous ammonia tanks exploded with injuries in our rural community (supposedly a heat related explosion); I visited one of the injured in the ER. This heat and humidity is equivalent to the summer heat in Tallahassee I experienced as a law student 40 years ago. This morning the windows in our house were dripping wet when I woke up. So, now yes, I have noticed the heat.
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This summer seems to have been really bad in the US in various areas (not so much here, to me). We had hot summers in the 1930s also, I don't know if they were this bad.
Anyway, I think one reason a lot of folks don't "believe" in CC is they don't really sense it where they live, or they write a hot summer off to a random event, and they think it's all a conspiracy to gain more power.
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the past two days have been 101 and 102, close to record highes for those days.
Monday was 98 and today is supposed to get to 98. That's 4 days of 98 or above
doesn't strike me as the hottest in my lifetime in Iowa, but it's up there
back to normal tomorrow and the coming week in the 80s
this year and the past two years have had the least rain and snow that I remember.
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I have to update my post. This is the worst week of hot humidity I have experienced in Iowa. I think we had feel like temperatures of 113 degrees F, today. Three anhydrous ammonia tanks exploded with injuries in our rural community (supposedly a heat related explosion); I visited one of the injured in the ER. This heat and humidity is equivalent to the summer heat in Tallahassee I experienced as a law student 40 years ago. This morning the windows in our house were dripping wet when I woke up. So, now yes, I have noticed the heat.
We call that every day here in the Memphis area.
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The number of companies willing to insure homeowners in California continues to shrink, with the recent announcement that AmGUARD Insurance, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway-owned GUARD Insurance Companies, and Falls Lake Insurance will be pulling out of the market completely.
This comes on the heels of State Farm, Allstate, Farmers and other companies announcing they are altering their business models in the state.
“AmGUARD only began writing in California markets in 2019, experiencing major losses in 2020, 2021, and 2022 that were unusually high and not typical of the market as a whole,” Michael Soller, deputy insurance commissioner for the state, said. “AmGUARD represents approximately 0.6% of the homeowners’ market. Falls Lake is a very small writer with approximately 900 policies in force.”
No one from either company returned multiple calls asking for comment.
Falls Lake notified the state that it will stop issuing renewals in September, while AmGUARD will stop renewing policies starting in November.
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Update: it was cooler this morning, but it’s going to be hot as hell the next two days and then a week of rain.
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(https://i.imgur.com/pHaF6Kl.png)